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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SMv1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERF aer ) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERF aer simulated by the E3SMv1 atmosphere model using both century-long free-running atmosphere-land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERF aer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. Consequently, although the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase from 1870 to 2014, the ERF aer magnitude does not increase after around year 1970. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between preindustrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period from 1870 to 2014. The ERF aer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol-cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features a stronger sensitivity of the cloud droplet effective radius to changes in the cloud droplet number concentration. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. The ERF aer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-atmosphere forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERF aer , it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM version 1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERFaer) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERFaer simulated by the E3SM version 1 (E3SMv1) atmospheric model using both century-long free-running atmosphere–land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERFaer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and we evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between pre-industrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period of 1870–1969. In addition to the regional differences in the simulated relationships, a reduced sensitivity in cloud droplet number and other cloud properties to aerosol perturbations is seen when the aerosol perturbation is large. Consequently, the global annual mean ERFaer magnitude does not increase after around 1970. The ERFaer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol–cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features large relative changes in the cloud droplet effective radius in response to aerosol perturbations. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds (that causes a large effect on longwave ERFaer). As suggested by a previous study, the large ERFaer appears to be one of the reasons why the model cannot reproduce the observed global mean temperature evolution in the second half of the 20th century. Sensitivity simulations are performed to understand which parameterization and/or parameter changes have a large impact on the simulated ERFaer. The ERFaer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-model forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERFaer, it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leveraging Structured Biological Knowledge for Counterfactual Inference: A Case Study of Viral Pathogenesis

Counterfactual inference is a useful tool for comparing outcomes of interventions on complex systems. It requires us to represent the system in form of a structural causal model, complete with a causal diagram, probabilistic assumptions on exogenous variables, and functional assignments. Specifying such models can be extremely difficult in practice. The process requires substantial domain expertise, and does not scale easily to large systems, multiple systems, or novel system modifications. At the same time, many application domains, such as molecular biology, are rich in structured causal knowledge that is qualitative in nature. This manuscript proposes a general approach for querying a causal knowledge graph with a causal question and converting the qualitative result into a quantitative structural causal model that can learn from data to answer the question. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility, accuracy and versatility of this approach using two case studies in systems biology. The first demonstrates the appropriateness of the underlying assumptions and the accuracy of the results. The second demonstrates the versatility of the approach by querying a knowledge base for the molecular determinants of a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-induced cytokine storm and performing counterfactual inference to predict the causal effect of medical countermeasures for severely ill COVID-19 patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Circulating levels of micronutrients and risk of osteomyelitis: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Few observational studies have investigated the effect of micronutrients on osteomyelitis, and these findings are limited by confounding and conflicting results. Therefore, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the association between blood levels of eight micronutrients (copper, selenium, zinc, vitamin B12, vitamin C, and vitamin D, vitamin B6, vitamin E) and the risk of osteomyelitis. Methods We performed the two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) to investigate causation, where instrument variables for the predictor (micronutrients) were derived from the summary data of micronutrients from independent cohorts of European ancestry. The outcome instrumental variables were used from the summary data of European-ancestry individuals ( n = 486,484). The threshold of statistical significance was set at p < 0.00625. Results We found a significant causal association that elevated zinc heightens the risk of developing osteomyelitis in European ancestry individuals OR = 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) [1.07, 1.43]; p = 4.26E-03]. Similarly, vitamin B6 showed a similar significant causal effect on osteomyelitis as a risk factor OR = 2.78 (95% CI [1.34, 5.76]; p = 6.04E-03; in the secondary analysis). Post-hoc analysis suggested this result (vitamin B6). However, the multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) provides evidence against the causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis OR = 0.98(95% CI [−0.11, 0.07]; p = 7.20E-1). After searching in PhenoScanner, no SNP with confounding factors was found in the analysis of vitamin B6. There was no evidence of a reverse causal impact of osteomyelitis on zinc and vitamin B6. Conclusion This study supported a strong causal association between vitamin B6 and osteomyelitis while reporting a dubious causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis.

Zhang, Xu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Systematic identification of cis -regulatory variants that cause gene expression differences in a yeast cross

Sequence variation in regulatory DNA alters gene expression and shapes genetically complex traits. However, the identification of individual, causal regulatory variants is challenging. Here, we used a massively parallel reporter assay to measure the cis-regulatory consequences of 5832 natural DNA variants in the promoters of 2503 genes in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We identified 451 causal variants, which underlie genetic loci known to affect gene expression. Several promoters harbored multiple causal variants. In five promoters, pairs of variants showed non-additive, epistatic interactions. Causal variants were enriched at conserved nucleotides, tended to have low derived allele frequency, and were depleted from promoters of essential genes, which is consistent with the action of negative selection. Causal variants were also enriched for alterations in transcription factor binding sites. Models integrating these features provided modest, but statistically significant, ability to predict causal variants. This work revealed a complex molecular basis for cis-acting regulatory variation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The connected wedge theorem and its consequences

In the AdS/CFT correspondence, bulk causal structure has consequences for boundary entanglement. In quantum information science, causal structures can be replaced by distributed entanglement for the purposes of information processing. In this work, we deepen the understanding of both of these statements, and their relationship, with a number of new results. Centrally, we present and prove a new theorem, the n-to-n connected wedge theorem, which considers n input and n output locations at the boundary of an asymptotically AdS 2+1 spacetime described by AdS/CFT. When a sufficiently strong set of causal connections exists among these points in the bulk, a set of n associated regions in the boundary will have extensive-in-N mutual information across any bipartition of the regions. The proof holds in three bulk dimensions for classical spacetimes satisfying the null curvature condition and for semiclassical spacetimes satisfying standard conjectures. The n-to-n connected wedge theorem gives a precise example of how causal connections in a bulk state can emerge from large-N entanglement features of its boundary dual. It also has consequences for quantum information theory: it reveals one pattern of entanglement which is sufficient for information processing in a particular class of causal networks. We argue this pattern is also necessary, and give an AdS/CFT inspired protocol for information processing in this setting. Our theorem generalizes the 2-to-2 connected wedge theorem proven in [3]. We also correct some errors in the proof presented there, in particular a false claim that existing proof techniques work above three bulk dimensions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seeing the entanglement wedge

We study the problem of revealing the entanglement wedge using simple operations. We ask what operation a semiclassical observer can do to bring the entanglement wedge into causal contact with the boundary, via backreaction. In a generic perturbative class of states, we propose a unitary operation in the causal wedge whose backreaction brings all of the previously causally inaccessible ‘peninsula’ into causal contact with the boundary. This class of cases includes entanglement wedges associated to boundary sub-regions that are unions of disjoint spherical caps, and the protocol works to first order in the size of the peninsula. The unitary is closely related to the so-called Connes Cocycle flow, which is a unitary that is both well-defined in QFT and localised to a sub-region. Our construction requires a generalization of the work by Ceyhan & Faulkner to regions which are unions of disconnected spherical caps. We discuss this generalization in the appendix. We argue that this cocycle should be thought of as naturally generalizing the non-local coupling introduced in the work of Gao, Jafferis & Wall.

2D gravity↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modular flow in JT gravity and entanglement wedge reconstruction

It has been shown in recent works that JT gravity with matter with two boundaries has a type II ∞ algebra on each side. As the bulk spacetime between the two boundaries fluctuates in quantum nature, we can only define the entanglement wedge for each side in a pure algebraic sense. As we take the semiclassical limit, we will have a fixed long wormhole spacetime for a generic partially entangled thermal state (PETS), which is prepared by inserting heavy operators on the Euclidean path integral. Under this limit, with appropriate assumptions of the matter theory, geometric notions of the causal wedge and entanglement wedge emerge in this background. In particular, the causal wedge is manifestly nested in the entanglement wedge. Different PETS are orthogonal to each other, and thus the Hilbert space has a direct sum structure over sub-Hilbert spaces labeled by different Euclidean geometries. The full algebra for both sides is decomposed accordingly. From the algebra viewpoint, the causal wedge is dual to an emergent type III 1 subalgebra, which is generated by boundary light operators. To reconstruct the entanglement wedge, we consider the modular flow in a generic PETS for each boundary. We show that the modular flow acts locally and is the boost transformation around the global RT surface in the semiclassical limit. It follows that we can extend the causal wedge algebra to a larger type III 1 algebra corresponding to the entanglement wedge. Within each sub-Hilbert space, the original type II ∞ reduces to type III 1 .

2D Gravity↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust analytic continuation of Green's functions via projection, pole estimation, and semidefinite relaxation

Green's functions of fermions are described by matrix-valued Herglotz-Nevanlinna functions. Since analytic continuation is fundamentally an ill-posed problem, the causal space described by the matrix-valued Herglotz-Nevanlinna structure can be instrumental in improving the accuracy and in enhancing the robustness with respect to noise. We demonstrate a three-pronged procedure for robust analytic continuation called PES: (1) projection of data to the causal space; (2) estimation of pole locations; and (3) semidefinite relaxation within the causal space. We compare the performance of PES with the recently developed Nevanlinna and Carathéodory continuation methods and find that PES is more robust in the presence of noise and does not require the usage of extended precision arithmetics. We also demonstrate that a causal projection improves the performance of the Nevanlinna and Carathéodory methods. The PES method is generalized to bosonic response functions, for which the Nevanlinna and Carathéodory continuation methods have not yet been developed. Furthermore, it is particularly useful for studying spectra with sharp features, as they occur in the study of molecules and band structures in solids.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗