Control co-design of commercial building chiller plant using Bayesian optimization
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Bhattacharya, Arnab↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Design optimization of an additively manufactured prototype recuperator for supercritical CO 2 power cycles
Supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) power cycles are being developed due to their potential for high efficiency and reduced capital cost. It is necessary that these recuperators operate at high pressures and temperatures, up to 30 MPa and 900 K, with effectiveness values > 95% and pressure drops <1% to achieve high cycle efficiencies. Moreover, it is also necessary to have reasonable cost recuperators to control the capital costs of the sCO 2 power cycles. In this study, a Plate Pin-Fin (PPF) heat exchanger has been proposed as an sCO 2 recuperator. This preliminary recuperator design leverages capabilities enabled by additive manufacturing. Although the PPF design has characteristics similar to those of a plate heat exchanger, small diameter and relatively long fins are used to increase surface area, enhance heat transfer, and provide structural support for the partition plates that separate the fluid streams. Existing correlations for heat transfer and pressure drop were adapted for the PPF heat exchanger. These correlations were implemented in a 1D analytical model and used for the optimization of a 5-kW th high temperature recuperator for an indirect sCO 2 cycle by varying the design parameters to minimize the quantity of material required. A 3D conjugate heat transfer numerical simulations were conducted to validate the heat transfer and pressure loss correlations. A steepest descent method was used to minimize heat exchanger mass for a 5-kW prototype recuperator subject to a maximum specified pressure drop. Additionally, the design analysis indicated that an optimum PPF recuperator would be attained for the minimum allowable pin transverse spacing, minimum pin width, minimum pin height and near maximum cell aspect ratio. Moreover, at a low material requirement of 0.216 kg/kW and a pressure drop, which is almost five times lower than the allowable pressure drop design target, the optimized PPF heat exchanger has the high potential to be an alternative to a printed circuit heat exchanger, which is a conservative design basis for the current state-of-the-art sCO 2 recuperators.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A novel method for co-optimizing battery sizing and charging strategy of battery electric bus fleets: An application to the city of Paris
Battery-electric buses (BEBs) are a promising technology for replacing diesel buses and reducing their environmental burden. However, their charging process can take several hours, depending on the charging technique and strategy, making them susceptible to schedule disruptions. Furthermore, the selection of the charging strategy and battery size can increase the total capital investment and operational expenses of a BEB fleet, which is a major obstacle to its adoption. Therefore, to minimize the total cost of ownership (TCO) and prevent schedule disruptions, it is essential to establish a well-defined approach to determine an appropriate battery size and charging strategy for BEB fleets. This paper presents a method for reducing the TCO of BEB by determining the optimal battery size and charging strategy for each bus while satisfying operating constraints. The method involves a two-step optimization algorithm that uses Dynamic Programming and Genetic Algorithm. Further, the study applies this approach to the bus fleet serving line 21 in Paris and generates the optimal battery sizing, charging strategy, and required charging infrastructure. The results indicate that 100 kWh batteries offer the best trade-off between capital and operational expenditure for the fleet deployment if used with 65–85 kW chargers at bus terminals.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
Techno-Economic Analysis of Recycling Strategies for Catalyst and Acid During Catalytic Graphitization
With the aim of meeting the urgent demand for active anode materials (AAM) in energy storage systems, bio-based graphite (biographite) emerges as an affordable solution to de-risk the turbulent supply chain of critical minerals. Anode grade biographite requires high crystallinity and purity, which can be achieved by catalytic graphitization with iron, followed by acid washing. Therefore, a well-conceived process integration that recycles catalyst can be the starting point to commercialization. This study evaluates closed-loop catalyst recovery, and byproducts valorization scenarios through a technoeconomic framework to help understand the scale-up potential of biographite. For the acid washing, three reactors in series meet the required biographite purity at 99.95%. Iron and acid recovery can reduce material consumption and waste generation by ~95%, albeit at the expense of ~80% increase in capital costs. Recovery scenarios present similar capital and operational expenses, yielding minimum selling prices (MSP) near $6 kg-1 of biographite. Monte Carlo methodology reveals that feedstock price accounts for ~60% of MSP variance, followed by plant capacity ~20%. The likelihood of reaching a competitive profit margin of 30% in the U.S. AAM market sits at 85% average for recovery scenarios, and 103% when iron oxide is sold as byproduct. Additionally, an IRR >= 15% can be achieved for half of Monte Carlo simulations, representing promising early-stage results. Biographite production offers a strategic pathway to stabilize the anode market beyond China by integrating established technologies for a scalable, economically viable, and sustainable process. The role of catalyst recovery and byproducts utilization is critical for advancing the biomaterials industry.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Making coal relevant for small scale applications: Modular gasification for syngas/engine CHP applications in challenging environments
Small-scale coal gasification technology, coupled to a reciprocating engine generator, has the potential for making coal a cost competitive resource for meeting the flexible energy needs and resiliency requirements of utilities across the United States. To maintain grid stability and reliability, electrical generation must be regulated to match the load at the proper voltage and frequency. With the expansion of intermittent sources into the grid, such as wind and solar, frequency and voltage regulation become increasingly important and challenging. This work presents the results of a Front End Engineering Design (FEED) effort to detail the engineering and preliminary economics of a small-scale, air blown, fixed-bed gasification process, operating at near-atmospheric pressure, with gas cleanup to provide syngas and pyrolysis liquid fuels for use in reciprocating engine generators for combined heat and power at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. A very detailed assessment of capital and operating costs allows the evaluation of a levelized cost of electricity of 208.06 $/MWh, which can be reduced through the selling of by-products (steam for heating purposes and pyrolysis liquids to be used for power generation in an existing diesel engine). Here, a combined sensitivity analysis, based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been carried out to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties (capital and operating costs and plant annual availability) on the LCOE.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
A scoping study of far-SOL main-wall protection limiters for steady-state operation of compact pilot plant tokamaks
We present a novel method for handling steady-state heat fluxes incident on the main wall of pilot plant-scale magnetic fusion devices, based on the utilization of protection limiters in the far scrape-off layer (SOL). This method helps avoid large plasma-wall gaps, without excessively compromising blanket performance. We present an optimization algorithm for determining the appropriate size and scale of these protection limiters given (1) probability distributions of SOL plasma parameters and (2) assumed risk tolerance. As part of this optimization, we have developed an analytic description of parallel heat fluxes across limiter shadows, and an objective cost function (the ‘Far-SOL Marginal Cost’) to quantify the impact that different main-wall thermal management design choices have on reactor capital cost. Applying the model to a midscale fusion pilot plant concept shows that making use of far-SOL protection limiters can reduce capital costs on the order of $500 M, relative to naively increasing the plasma-wall gap. Our analysis demonstrates that the far-SOL power decay length is the highest-leverage plasma assumption for thermal loading of the first wall, and the primary cost driver for main wall thermal management. The relative cost efficiency of protection limiters increases as assumptions on the far-SOL heat flux become more pessimistic. The concepts described in this paper motivate the further development of far-SOL protection limiters as part of larger efforts to design economical core-edge-wall compatible solutions for a fusion pilot plant.
Design under uncertainty↗
Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis
Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulationin-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multiobjective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.
Flood mitigation↗
The cold high-pressure approach to hydrogen delivery
In view of the very expensive and wasteful nature of today's approaches to H 2 delivery, in this work we explore the possibility of transporting cold (200 K) high pressure (875 bar) H 2 in thermally insulated trailers and dispensing H 2 directly from the trailer, with the potential to eliminate station compressor, cascade, and refrigerator, leading to major reductions in station complexity, maintenance, electricity consumption, and cost, while improving functionality by enabling essentially unlimited back to back refuels, and improving safety due to reduced H 2 expansion energy at low temperature. Detailed techno-economic analysis shows promise for substantial delivery cost reductions through cold high pressure H 2 dispensed directly from the trailer. Results indicate that: (1) Terminal operations for cold high pressure H 2 delivery are $\$$0.32/kg H 2 more expensive than for 350 bar compressed gas delivery (today's lowest cost H 2 delivery technology) due to higher level of pressurization (to 1000 bar) and chilling needs (to 165 K). (2) Trailer cost drops slightly ($\$$0.73 vs. $\$$0.81/kg H 2 for a 350 bar trailer) due to increased capacity (1035 kg H 2 delivered vs. 700 kg) compensating for increased capital cost ($\$$906,900 for cold high pressure H 2 vs. $\$$634,000 for 350 bar trailer). (3) Cold hydrogen delivery presents major advantages in fueling station cost, reduced from $\$$1.27 to $\$$0.46/kg H 2 due to elimination of major system components: compressor, cascade, and chiller. (4) Total compression cost (terminal + station) drops from $\$$0.92/kg H 2 ($\$$0.32 terminal and $\$$0.60 station) for 350 bar trailers to $\$$0.55/kg H 2 (all at the terminal) for cold high pressure H 2 . (5) Elimination of small-scale station compressors is the main contributor to reduced delivery cost due to their inefficiency, capital expense, and maintenance needs. In summary, total delivery cost reduction vs. 350 bar trailer equals $\$$0.58/kg H 2 (from $\$$2.96 to 2.38/kg H 2 ), equivalent to 24% of the total delivery cost. This large cost advantage will improve the economics of H 2 vehicles facilitating the transition to a future of zero emission transportation.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Conceptual Design and Rationale for a New Agrivoltaics Concept: Pastured-Raised Rabbits and Solar Farming
Land-use conflicts created by the growth of solar photovoltaics (PV) can be mitigated by applying the concept of agrivoltaics, that is, the co-development of land for both PV and agricultural purposes, to commercial-scale solar installations. In this study, we present a conceptual design for a novel agrivoltaic system based on pasture-fed rabbit farming and provide the technical, environmental and economic analyses to demonstrate the viability of the concept. Included in our analysis are the economic advantages to the PV operator of grazing rabbits at a density sufficient to control vegetative growth, thus reducing the economic and environmental costs of mowing; the dual-revenue stream from the sale of both rabbits and electricity, contrasted with estimates of the capital-investment costs for rabbits co-located with, and also independent of, PV; and the economic value to the rabbit farmer of higher colony-growth rates (made possible by the shading and predator protection provided by the PV arrays and of reduced fencing costs, which are the largest capital cost, by being able to leverage the PV systems for rabbit fencing. We also provide an environmental analysis that suggests that rabbit-PV farming is a pathway to a measurable reduction in agriculturally-generated greenhouse-gas emissions. Here, our calculations indicate that the co-location of solar and rabbit farms is a viable form of agrivoltaics, increasing overall site revenue by 2.5%-24.0% above projected electricity revenue depending on location and rental/ownership of rabbits, while providing a high-value agricultural product that, on a per weight basis, has significantly less environmental impact than cattle.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Cost estimation of balance of plant equipment scale up for proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer systems
Water electrolyzers that use electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen could be a key technology for increasing hydrogen supply to meet expanded and emerging market applications, although currently the capital costs of these electrolyzers are high. Here we examine cost reductions that might be achieved by scaling up proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems and leveraging economies of scale through balance of plant (BOP) components for system sizes between 1 MW and 1 GW. We estimate BOP equipment capital costs of about $\$$848/kW at 1 MW, potentially decreasing to $\$$87/kW at 1 GW (2022-dollar year basis) with most of the cost reduction happening as systems scale from 1 MW to 100 MW. We find that BOP subsystems hydrogen drying and water knockout benefited the most from economies-of-scale cost reductions, and piping, instrumentation, and housing and power electronics were less impacted. These cost reductions from economies of scale could be more significant than estimated cost reductions from manufacturing scale-up reported in literature. These results add to the knowledge base that could guide optimal system designs that balance process scale-up with plant modularization and numbering-up. We also estimate that scaling up BOP could potentially lower the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) by $\$$1.7-$\$$4.6/kg, depending on the scale-up magnitude and the plant capacity factor.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Costs of mitigating the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States
Developers are required to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States (U.S.) but there is very little accessible information on the associated costs. This work compiles and analyses a dataset of environmental impacts mitigation costs for 182 hydropower projects based on documents obtained from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The analysis shows that environmental costs vary wildly across hydropower project classes and mitigation measures, even when normalized by plant capacity. Capital costs per kilowatt are generally higher for relicensed conventional hydropower plants, and lower for new and relicensed pumped storage hydropower plants, relative to other project classes. Smaller plants tend to spend a higher share of total project costs on mitigating environmental impacts than larger plants, and measures related to Aquatic Species, Project Operations, and Recreation have the highest capital cost per kilowatt. These findings mean that environmental costs could become a key decision variable for new hydropower developments in the U.S. due to the small scale of most of the remaining potential and the increasing stringency of environmental requirements. Therefore, technologies to reduce the environmental impacts and costs of hydropower would be important for future project developments.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Combined Land Use of Solar Infrastructure and Agriculture for Socioeconomic and Environmental Co-Benefits in the Tropics
Solar photovoltaics (PV) are on the rise even in areas of low solar insolation. However, in developing countries with limited capital, land scarcity, or with geographically isolated agrarian communities, large solar infrastructures are often impractical. In these cases, implementation of low-density PV over existing crops may be required to integrate renewable energy services into rural communities. Here, using Indonesia as a model system, we investigated the land use, energy, greenhouse gas emissions, economic feasibility, and the environmental co-benefits associated with off-grid solar PV when combined with high value crop cultivation. The life cycle analyses indicate that small-scale dual land-use systems are economically viable in certain configurations and have the potential to provide several co-benefits including rural electrification, retrofitting diesel electricity generation, and electricity for processing agricultural products locally. A hypothetical full-density off-grid solar PV for a model village in Indonesia shows that electricity output (1907.5 GJ yr-1) is much higher than the total residential consumption (678 GJ yr-1), highlighting the opportunity to downscale the PV infrastructure by half to lower capital cost, to co-locate crops, and to support secondary income generating activities. Economic analysis shows that the 30-year net present cost of electricity from the half-density co-located PV system (12,257 million IDR) is significantly lower than that of the flat cost of diesel required to generate equivalent electricity (14,702 million IDR). Our analysis provides insights for smarter energy planning by optimizing the efficiency of land use and limiting conversion of agricultural and forested areas for energy production.
agrivoltaics↗
Comparative Techno-economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of Producing High-Value Chemicals and Fuels from Waste Plastic via Conventional Pyrolysis and Thermal Oxo-degradation
The rapid rise in global plastic production in recent decades has resulted in the massive generation of plastic waste. Over 75% of the plastic waste generated in the United States was sent to landfills, with a meager 8.7% recycled. Plastics are valuable feedstocks for platform chemicals and fuels. Chemical upcycling of waste high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is gaining more attention as a potentially feasible and environmentally friendly plastic waste management technology. Conventional pyrolysis (CPY) and thermal oxo-degradation (TOD) are two chemical upcycling technologies actively researched for decomposing waste HDPE into valuable chemicals and fuels. However, there are few studies on the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of these technologies for converting waste HDPE to valuable products. This study conducts a comparative TEA and LCA study of the thermochemical decomposition of waste HDPE to produce gaseous (ethylene and propylene) and liquid (naphtha, diesel, and wax) products by CPY and TOD. The study elucidates and compares the impact of hydrocracking longer chain hydrocarbons to produce more valuable products on the TEA and LCA. The TEA showed that the fixed capital investment could range from $\$32.5$ million for TOD without hydrocracking to $\$244$ million for CPY with hydrocracking scenarios. Annual revenues range from $\$28.1$ million to $\$71.5$ million in favor of scenarios with hydrocracking. However, the net present value ranges from $\$1.4$ million to $\$265.8$ million in favor of scenarios without hydrocracking. Sensitivity analysis showed that fixed capital cost, facility capacity, and product prices have the biggest impact on the process economics of the facilities, while utilities and waste transportation to refineries have the biggest impact on environmental impacts. Here, the LCA showed that primary products from scenarios without hydrocracking can be more environmentally friendly than virgin products from petroleum processes. However, TOD and CPY with hydrocracking primary products have more emissions than those of virgin products.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Cost and Carbon Intensity Implications of Coprocessing Sustainable Aviation Fuel at Petroleum Refineries
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will play a critical role in decarbonizing the aviation industry. Among SAF production pathways, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) stands out for its scalability, supported by abundant feedstock availability and a well-established bioethanol industry. However, significant reductions in SAF carbon intensity (CI) require the use of future feedstocks (e.g., cellulosic) whose adoption is hindered by high capital costs for feedstock processing and ethanol upgrading. Here, we evaluate the financial viability and environmental implications of integrating an ATJ SAF biorefinery within a petroleum refinery, utilizing miscanthus and switchgrass as example feedstocks. Three scenarios are evaluated: standalone (benchmark), colocated, and repurposing (coprocessing SAF within the petroleum refinery). Results show repurposing reduces baseline capital costs by 36% and SAF minimum selling price (MSP) by 12% to 8.14 USD·gal −1 ; the superior performance of repurposing is consistent across both feedstocks. Integration has a limited effect on SAF CI, which remains stable across scenarios, whereas using cellulosic feedstocks reduces CI by over 70% relative to corn, with baseline values of 17.01 g CO 2 e· MJ −1 for miscanthus and 12.23 g CO 2 e·MJ −1 for switchgrass. Global sensitivity analysis reveals MSP declines with greater coprocessing levels.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability
This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.
petrochemicals↗
Towards Understanding of Cracking during Drying of Thick Aqueous-Processed LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 Cathodes
Replacing N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) with water for processing of lithium-ion battery (LIB) electrodes has both cost and environmental benefits, which include reduced drying time, lower dryer capital cost, elimination of NMP recovery capital equipment, and no release of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into the environment. However, aqueous-processed thick cathodes (≳4 mAh/cm 2 ) typically exhibit detrimental cracking during drying that is not observed for the NMP-based counterpart. The reasons for cracking of these water-based thick electrodes are still not well understood due to the complex nature of the colloidal dispersions used in the LIB electrode processing steps. In this work, the contributions of various factors responsible for cracking are discussed. We show that eliminating hydrogen evolution due to corrosion of the aluminum current collector eliminated the majority of the cracks regardless of the coating thickness, identifying the gas evolution as the primary reason for electrode cracking. Some secondary cracks and pinhole-type defects remained after addressing the aluminum current collector corrosion, which are thought to be caused by an inferior binding network formed by carbon black and binder in aqueous-processed cathodes compared to those processed with NMP. The thick aqueous processed cathodes are not able to sufficiently withstand the drying stresses without crack formation. We demonstrate reduction of these secondary defects by either improving the binding network or by reducing the drying stress. The former was achieved by replacing carbon black with vapor grown graphite tubes (VGGTs) that caused a more efficient utilization of the emulsion binder. Here, the latter was achieved by adding a small amount of IPA as a co-solvent that has been shown to reduce capillary stresses.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models
Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges
In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗