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NASA NTRS2005

Simplified Solar Modulation Model of Inner Trapped Belt Proton Flux As a Function of Atmospheric Density

No simple algorithm seems to exist for calculating proton fluxes and lifetimes in the Earth's inner, trapped radiation belt throughout the solar cycle. Most models of the inner trapped belt in use depend upon AP8 which only describes the radiation environment at solar maximum and solar minimum in Cycle 20. One exception is NOAAPRO which incorporates flight data from the TIROS/NOAA polar orbiting spacecraft. The present study discloses yet another, simple formulation for approximating proton fluxes at any time in a given solar cycle, in particular between solar maximum and solar minimum. It is derived from AP8 using a regression algorithm technique from nuclear physics. From flux and its time integral fluence, one can then approximate dose rate and its time integral dose. It has already been published in this journal that the absorbed dose rate, D, in the trapped belts exhibits a power law relationship, D = A(rho)(sup -n), where A is a constant, rho is the atmospheric density, and the index n is weakly dependent upon shielding. However, that method does not work for flux and fluence. Instead, we extend this idea by showing that the power law approximation for flux J is actually bivariant in energy E as well as density rho. The resulting relation is J(E,rho)approx.(sum of)A(E(sup n))rho(sup -n), with A itself a power law in E. This provides another method for calculating approximate proton flux and lifetime at any time in the solar cycle. These in turn can be used to predict the associated dose and dose rate.

Wilson, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Effect of Thermospheric Neutral Density upon Inner Trapped-belt Proton Flux

We wish to point out that a secular change in the Earth's atmospheric neutral density alters charged-particle lifetime in the inner trapped radiation belts, in addition to the changes recently reported as produced by greenhouse gases. Heretofore, changes in neutral density have been of interest primarily because of their effect on the orbital drag of satellites. We extend this to include the orbital lifetime of charged particles in the lower radiation belts. It is known that the charged-belt population is coupled to the neutral density of the atmosphere through changes induced by solar activity, an effect produced by multiple scattering off neutral and ionized atoms along with ionization loss in the thermosphere where charged and neutral populations interact. It will be shown here that trapped-belt flux J is bivariant in energy E and thermospheric neutral density , as J(E,rho). One can conclude that proton lifetimes in these belts are also directly affected by secular changes in the neutral species populating the Earth s thermosphere. This result is a consequence of an intrinsic property of charged-particle flux, that flux is not merely a function of E but is dependent upon density rho when a background of neutrals is present.

Wilson, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Cosmic Ray Flux in the Presence of a Neutral Background

The study of cosmic rays (CRs) is a very mature subject developed around the concept of radiative particle flux phi as a mono-variant function of energy E, that is phi = phi(E). This is based on the notion of the cosmos as being filled with cosmic radiation in the form of a collisionless exosphere of plasma. Neutrals, however, are likewise ubiquitous in space and planetary trapped-radiation belts. It will be shown that in the presence of a neutral background of density rho, flux phi is actually bivariant in energy E and rho, creating a surface phi(E,rho). This is an intrinsic property of charged-particle flux, that flux is not merely a function of E but is dependent upon density rho when a background of neutrals is present. The effect is produced by multiple scattering of charged particles off neutral and ionized atoms along with ionization loss where charged and neutral populations interact. For the harder portion of CR spectra, flux is mono-variant but at nonrelativistic energies (below approx, 350 MeV) it becomes sensitive to the presence of neutral backgrounds. The dependence of phi(E,rho) upon background neutrals is helpful in discussing the anomalous CR (ACR) flux made up of ionized components of the heliospheric neutral atmosphere.

Wilson, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Homocysteine and Cognitive Performance in Elders with Self-Neglect

Elevated plasma homocysteine has been associated with altered cognitive performance in older adults. Elders referred to Adult Protective Services (APS) for self-neglect have been reported to have elevated plasma homocysteine levels and to suffer from cognitive impairment. This study assesses the association, if any, between plasma homocysteine and cognitive performance among elders with self-neglect. Methods: Sixty-five community-living adults, 65 years of age and older, reported to Adult Protective Services for self-neglect and 55 matched controls (matched for age, ethnicity, gender and socio-economic status) consented and participated in this study. The research team conducted in-home comprehensive geriatric assessments which included the mini-mental state exam (MMSE), the 15-item geriatric depression scale (GDS), the Wolf-Klein Clock Drawing Tests (CDT) and a comprehensive nutritional biochemistry panel, which included plasma homocysteine. Student s t tests and Pearson correlations were conducted to assess for bivariate associations. Results: Elders with self-neglect had significantly higher plasma homocysteine levels (M=12.68umol/L, sd=4.4) compared to the controls (M=10.40umol/L, sd=3.61;t=3.21, df=127, p=.002). There were no statistically significant associations between cognitive performance and plasma homocysteine in the self-neglect group, however there was a significant correlation between plasma homocysteine and the CDT among the controls (r=-.296, p=.022). Conclusion: Mean plasma homocysteine levels were significantly higher in elders with self-neglect, however, they do not appear to be related to cognitive performance, indicating that cognitive impairment in elder self-neglect involve mechanisms other than hyperhomocysteinemia. These findings warrant further investigation

Burnett, J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Parathyroid Hormone Levels and Cognition

Hyperparathyroidism is a well-recognized cause of impaired cognition due to hypercalcemia. However, recent studies have suggested that perhaps parathyroid hormone itself plays a role in cognition, especially executive dysfunction. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship of parathyroid hormone levels in a study cohort of elders with impaied cognition. Methods: Sixty community-living adults, 65 years of age and older, reported to Adult Protective Services for self-neglect and 55 controls matched (on age, ethnicity, gender and socio-economic status) consented and participated in this study. The research team conducted in-home comprehensive geriatric assessments which included the Mini-mental state exam (MMSE), the 15-item geriatric depression scale (GDS) , the Wolf-Klein clock test and a comprehensive nutritional panel, which included parathyroid hormone and ionized calcium. Students t tests and linear regression analyses were performed to assess for bivariate associations. Results: Self-neglecters (M = 73.73, sd=48.4) had significantly higher PTH levels compared to controls (M =47.59, sd=28.7; t=3.59, df=98.94, p<.01). There was no significant group difference in ionized calcium levels. Overall, PTH was correlated with the MMSE (r=-.323, p=.001). Individual regression analyses revealed a statistically significant correlation between PTH and MMSE in the self-neglect group (r=-.298, p=.024) and this remained significant after controlling for ionized calcium levels in the regression. No significant associations were revealed in the control group or among any of the other cognitive measures. Conclusion: Parathyroid hormone may be associated with cognitive performance.

Burnett, J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Tocopherol in Elder Self-Neglect

Although elder self-neglect is the most common form of elder mistreatment, its pathophysiology is not well understood. Alpha-tocopherol is a lipid soluble antioxidant required for the preservation of cell membranes. Since the association between tocopherol and cognitive impairment in older adults has been described, we explored the possibility of its role in elder self-neglect. OBJECTIVE: (1) To determine whether serum tocopherol levels are associated with elder self-neglect, and (2) to assess the association of serum tocopherol levels and cognitive function in elder self-neglect. METHODS: Serum tocopherol levels were measured in a cohort of 67 self-neglecting elders and 67 matched controls, recruited for the Consortium for Research in Elder Self-neglect of Texas. Pearson s correlation tests were performed to assess bivariate associations between serum tocopherol levels and cognitive function. RESULTS: Mean serum alpha-tocopherol levels were 10.8 +/- 4.7 ug/mL in self-neglect group and 13.0 +/- 4.9 ug/mL in control group (p = 0.006, unpaired student s t-test). None of the participants from either group had alpha-tocopherol level lower than the reference range. Mean serum gamma-tocopherol levels were 2.0 +/- 1.0 ug/mL in self-neglect group and 2.0 +/- 1.1 in control group (p=0.83). Proportion of the elders with gamma-tocopherol level lower than the reference range were 4.5% (3/66) in self-neglect group and 10.4% (7/67) in control group (p=0.32, Fisher s Exact Test). Among the self-neglecting elders, no association was found between serum alpha-tocopherol levels and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) or the Wolf-Klein Clock Drawing Test (CDT) scores (r =-0.42, p=0.75 for MMSE; r=0.08, p=0.54 for CDT). No association was found between serum gamma-tocopherol levels and the MMSE or the CDT (r=-0.12, p=0.35 for MMSE; r=0.05, p=0.68 for CDT). CONCLUSION: In our sample, neither alpha-tocopherol nor gamma-tocopherol appears to have a role in pathophysiology of elder self-neglect. Nevertheless, significantly lower serum alpha-tocopherol levels in the self neglect group merits further research.

Aung, K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke Was Within Any Radius of Any Point

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station.

Huddleston, Lisa L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Lightning Stroke Contacted the Surface Within Any Radius of Any Point

A technique has been developed to calculate the probability that any nearby lightning stroke is within any radius of any point of interest. In practice, this provides the probability that a nearby lightning stroke was within a key distance of a facility, rather than the error ellipses centered on the stroke. This process takes the current bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to get the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius. This new facility-centric technique will be much more useful to the space launch customers and may supersede the lightning error ellipse approach discussed in [5], [6].

Huddleston, Lisa L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Method to Estimate the Probability that Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within Any Radius of Any Point

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

Huddleston, Lisa↗
NASA NTRS2010

Solar Cycle and Anthropogenic Forcing of Surface-Air Temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland

A comparison of 10-yr moving average (yma) values of Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface-air temperatures with selected solar cycle indices (sunspot number (SSN) and the Aa geomagnetic index (Aa)), sea-surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region, and Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) atmospheric concentration measurements reveals a strong correlation (r = 0.686) between the Armagh temperatures and Aa, especially, prior to about 1980 (r = 0.762 over the interval of 1873-1980). For the more recent interval 1963-2003, the strongest correlation (r = 0.877) is between Armagh temperatures and MLCO2 measurements. A bivariate fit using both Aa and Mauna Loa values results in a very strong fit (r = 0.948) for the interval 1963-2003, and a trivariate fit using Aa, SSN, and Mauna Loa values results in a slightly stronger fit (r = 0.952). Atmospheric CO2 concentration now appears to be the stronger driver of Armagh surface-air temperatures. An increase of 2 C above the long-term mean (9.2 C) at Armagh seems inevitable unless unabated increases in anthropogenic atmospheric gases can be curtailed. The present growth in 10-yma Armagh temperatures is about 0.05 C per yr since 1982. The present growth in MLCO2 is about 0.002 ppmv, based on an exponential fit using 10-yma values, although the growth appears to be steepening, thus, increasing the likelihood of deleterious effects attributed to global warming.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Method to Estimate the Probability that any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within any Radius of any Point

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud to ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

Huddleston, Lisa L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Probabilistic, Facility-Centric Approach to Lightning Strike Location

A new probabilistic facility-centric approach to lightning strike location has been developed. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision~ith spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

Huddleston, Lisa L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990-99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20 25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

Ham, Yoo-Geun↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index in Relation to Sunspot Number, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, the Mauna Loa Atmospheric Concentration of CO2, and Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions

Global warming/climate change has been a subject of scientific interest since the early 19th century. In particular, increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) have long been thought to account for Earth's increased warming, although the lack of a dependable set of observational data was apparent as late as the mid 1950s. However, beginning in the late 1950s, being associated with the International Geophysical Year, the opportunity arose to begin accurate continuous monitoring of the Earth's atmospheric concentration of CO2. Consequently, it is now well established that the atmospheric concentration of CO2, while varying seasonally within any particular year, has steadily increased over time. Associated with this rising trend in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is a rising trend in the surface-air and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). This Technical Publication (TP) examines the statistical relationships between 10-year moving averages (10-yma) of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), sunspot number (SSN), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, and the Mauna Loa CO2 (MLCO2) index for the common interval 1964-2006, where the 10-yma values are used to indicate trends in the data. Scatter plots using the 10-yma values between GLOTI and each of the other parameters are determined, both as single-variate and multivariate fits. Scatter plots are also determined for MLCO2 using single-variate and bivariate (BV) fits, based on the GLOTI alone and the GLOTI in combination with the AMO index. On the basis of the inferred preferential fits for MLCO2, estimates for MLCO2 are determined for the interval 1885-1964, thereby yielding an estimate of the preindustrial level of atmospheric concentration of CO2. Lastly, 10-yma values of MLCO2 are compared against 10-yma estimates of the total carbon emissions (TCE) to determine the likelihood that manmade sources of carbon emissions are indeed responsible for the recent warming now being experienced. (Parametric values used in this TP are those available prior to the end of 2012.)

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.

tree density declines↗
NASA NTRS2014

Recent Developments and Challenges Implementing New and Improved Stress Intensity Factor (K) Solutions in NASGRO for Damage Tolerance Analyses

Fatigue crack growth analysis software has been available to damage tolerance analysts for many years in either commercial products or via proprietary in-house codes. The NASGRO software has been publicly available since the mid-80s (known as NASA/FLAGRO up to 1999) and since 2000 has been sustained and further developed by a collaborative effort between Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®), the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), and the members of the NASGRO Industrial Consortium. Since the stress intensity factor (K) is the foundation of fracture mechanics and damage tolerance analysis of aircraft structures, a significant focus of development efforts in the past fifteen years has been geared towards enhancing legacy K solutions and developing new and efficient numerical K solutions that can handle the complicated stress gradients computed by today’s analysts using detailed finite element models of fatigue critical locations. This paper provides an overview of K solutions that have been recently implemented or improved for the analysis of geometries such as two unequal through cracks at a hole and two unequal corner cracks at a hole, as well as state-of-the-art weight function models capable of computing K in the presence of univariant and/or bivariant stress gradients and complicated residual stress distributions. Some historical background is provided to review how common K solutions have evolved over the years, including selective examples from the literature and from new research. Challenges and progress in rectifying discrepancies between older legacy solutions and newer models are reviewed as well as approaches and challenges for verification and validation of K solutions. Finally, a summary of current challenges and future research and development needs is presented. A key theme throughout the presentation of this paper will be how members of the aerospace industry have collaborated with software developers to develop a practical analysis tool that is used world-wide to support new design as well as the ongoing sustainment and airworthiness of commercial and military aircraft.

Cardinal, Joseph W.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting the Redshift 2 H-Alpha Luminosity Function Using [OIII] Emission Line Galaxies

Upcoming space-based surveys such as Euclid and WFIRST-AFTA plan to measure Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAOs) in order to study dark energy. These surveys will use IR slitless grism spectroscopy to measure redshifts of a large number of galaxies over a significant redshift range. In this paper, we use the WFC3 Infrared Spectroscopic Parallel Survey (WISP) to estimate the expected number of H-alpha emitters observable by these future surveys. WISP is an ongoing Hubble Space Telescope slitless spectroscopic survey, covering the 0.8 - 1.65 micrometers wavelength range and allowing the detection of H-alpha emitters up to z approximately equal to 1.5 and [OIII] emitters to z approximately equal to 2.3. We derive the H-alpha-[OIII] bivariate line luminosity function for WISP galaxies at z approximately equal to 1 using a maximum likelihood estimator that properly accounts for uncertainties in line luminosity measurement, and demonstrate how it can be used to derive the H-alpha luminosity function from exclusively fitting [OIII] data. Using the z approximately equal to 2 [OIII] line luminosity function, and assuming that the relation between H-alpha and [OIII] luminosity does not change significantly over the redshift range, we predict the H-alpha number counts at z approximately equal to 2 - the upper end of the redshift range of interest for the future surveys. For the redshift range 0.7 less than z less than 2, we expect approximately 3000 galaxies per sq deg for a flux limit of 3 x 10(exp −16) ergs per sec per sq cm (the proposed depth of Euclid galaxy redshift survey) and approximately 20,000 galaxies per sq deg for a flux limit of approximately 10(exp −16) ergs per sec per sq cm (the baseline depth of WFIRST galaxy redshift survey).

Redshift↗