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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Online Dectection and Modeling of Safety Boundaries for Aerospace Application Using Bayesian Statistics

The behavior of complex aerospace systems is governed by numerous parameters. For safety analysis it is important to understand how the system behaves with respect to these parameter values. In particular, understanding the boundaries between safe and unsafe regions is of major importance. In this paper, we describe a hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling approach for the online detection and characterization of such boundaries. Our method for classification with active learning uses a particle filter-based model and a boundary-aware metric for best performance. From a library of candidate shapes incorporated with domain expert knowledge, the location and parameters of the boundaries are estimated using advanced Bayesian modeling techniques. The results of our boundary analysis are then provided in a form understandable by the domain expert. We illustrate our approach using a simulation model of a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system, as well as a system for the detection of separation violations in the terminal airspace.

Statistics↗
NASA NTRS2015

Advanced Bayesian Method for Planetary Surface Navigation

Autonomous Exploration, Inc., has developed an advanced Bayesian statistical inference method that leverages current computing technology to produce a highly accurate surface navigation system. The method combines dense stereo vision and high-speed optical flow to implement visual odometry (VO) to track faster rover movements. The Bayesian VO technique improves performance by using all image information rather than corner features only. The method determines what can be learned from each image pixel and weighs the information accordingly. This capability improves performance in shadowed areas that yield only low-contrast images. The error characteristics of the visual processing are complementary to those of a low-cost inertial measurement unit (IMU), so the combination of the two capabilities provides highly accurate navigation. The method increases NASA mission productivity by enabling faster rover speed and accuracy. On Earth, the technology will permit operation of robots and autonomous vehicles in areas where the Global Positioning System (GPS) is degraded or unavailable.

Center, Julian↗
NASA NTRS2019

Computational Bayesian Methods Applied to Complex Problems in Bio and Astro Statistics

In this dissertation we apply computational Bayesian methods to three distinct problems. In the first chapter, we address the issue of unrealistic covariance matrices used to estimate collision probabilities. We model covariance matrices with a Bayesian Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, which we fit with Gibbs sampling. In the second chapter, we are interested in determining the sample sizes necessary to achieve a particular interval width and establish non-inferiority in the analysis of prevalences using two fallible tests. To this end, we use a third order asymptotic approximation. In the third chapter, we wish to synthesize evidence across multiple domains in measurements taken longitudinally across time, featuring a substantial amount of structurally missing data, and fit the model with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in a simulation to analyze how estimates of a parameter of interest change across sample sizes.

Elrod, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Bayesian Analysis of SDSS J0914+0853, a Low-mass Dual AGN Candidate

We present the first results from Bayesian AnalYsis of Multiple AGN in X-rays (BAYMAX), a tool that uses a Bayesian framework to quantitatively evaluate whether a given Chandra observation is more likely a single or dual point source. Although the most robust method of determining the presence of dual active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is to use X-ray observations, only sources that are widely separated relative to the instrumentʼs point-spread function are easy to identify. It becomes increasingly difficult to distinguish dual AGNs from single AGNs when the separation is on the order of Chandraʼs angular resolution (<1″). Using likelihood models for single and dual point sources, BAYMAX quantitatively evaluates the likelihood of an AGN for a given source. Specifically, we present results from BAYMAX analyzing the lowest-mass dual AGN candidate to date, SDSS J0914+0853, where archival Chandra data shows a possible secondary AGN ∼ 0"3 from the primary. Analyzing a new 50 ks Chandra observation, results from BAYMAX shows that SDSS J0914+0853 is most likely a single AGN with a Bayes factor of 13.5 in favor of a single point source model. Further, posterior distributions from the dual point source model are consistent with emission from a single AGN. We find a very low probability of SDSS J0914+0853 being a dual AGN system with a flux ratio f>0.3 and separation r>0"3. Overall, BAYMAX will be an important tool for correctly classifying candidate dual AGNs in the literature, as well as studying the dual AGN population where past spatial resolution limits have prevented systematic analyses.

Active galaxies↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bayesian Framework For Bioburden Density Calculations To Perform Planetary Protection Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The planetary protection discipline aims to minimize the microbial contamination on spacecraft to prevent the inadvertent contamination of other planetary bodies, known as forward planetary protection (PP). Planetary protection probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) relies on two core methodologies-the contamination probability event tree analysis and statistical parameter estimation. Planetary protection engineers combine several techniques to estimate the bioburden present on spacecraft components. A direct assay to enumerate CFU (colony forming units) is the preferred methodology, but given a similar processing environment the bioburden present on certain components is inferred using: (1) a NASA defined bioburden estimate based upon the biological cleanliness of the manufacturing/assembly environment or (2) sampled data from a similar spacecraft component. The paper presents an empirical Bayesian framework to systematically treat bioburden estimation and its uncertainties on different levels starting with measurement procedures to combining different components to subsystems and whole spacecraft. It is shown that the Bayesian approach can effectively handle estimations and their uncertainties at different levels and produce a reliable estimate for bioburden to be used to evaluate the probability of contamination.

Seuylemezian, Arman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bayesian Model Selection for Reducing Bloat and Overfitting in Genetic Programming for Symbolic Regression

When performing symbolic regression using genetic programming, overfitting and bloat can negatively impact generalizability and interpretability of the resulting equations as well as increase computation times. A Bayesian fitness metric is introduced and its impact on bloat and overfitting during population evolution is studied and compared to common alternatives in the literature. The proposed approach was found to be more robust to noise and data sparsity in numerical experiments, guiding evolution to a level of complexity appropriate to the dataset. Further evolution of the population resulted not in overfitting or bloat, but rather in slight simplifications in model form. The ability to identify an equation of complexity appropriate to the scale of noise in the training data was also demonstrated. In general, the Bayesian model selection algorithm was shown to be an effective means of regularization which resulted in less bloat and overfitting when any amount of noise was present in the training data.

G F Bomarito↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bayesian Analysis of the Detection Performance of the Lightning Imaging Sensors

Identical Lightning Imaging Sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM LIS, 1998-2015) and International Space Station (ISS LIS, 2017-present) have collectively provided over two decades of lightning observations over the global tropics, with ISS LIS extending coverage into the mid-latitudes. Quantifying the detection performance of both LIS sensors is a necessary step toward generating a LIS climatological record and accurately combining LIS data with lightning detections from other sensors and networks. We compare lightning observations from both LIS sensors with reference sources including the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and ground-based networks operated by Earth Networks (the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network [ENTLN] and Earth Networks Global Lightning Network [ENGLN]) and Vaisala (the National Lightning Detection Network [NLDN] and Global Lightning Dataset [GLD360]). Instead of a relative detection efficiency (RDE) approach that involves assuming perfect performance of the reference sensor, we employ a Bayesian approach to estimate the upper limit of the absolute detection efficiency (ADE) of each sensor being analyzed. The results of this Bayesian analysis illustrate the geographical pattern of ADE as well as its diurnal cycle and yearly evolution, reflecting the growth of the reference networks over time.

Katrina Virts↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Bayesian Deep Learning for Segmentation for Autonomous Safe Planetary Landing

Hazard detection is critical for enabling autonomous landing on planetary surfaces. Current state-of-the-art methods leverage traditional computer vision approaches to automate the identification of safe terrain from input digital elevation models (DEMs). However, performance for these methods can degrade for input DEMs with increased sensor noise. In the last decade, deep learning techniques have been developed for various applications. Nevertheless, their applicability to safety-critical space missions has often been limited due to concerns regarding their outputs’ reliability. In response to these limitations, this paper proposes an application of the Bayesian deep learning segmentation method for hazard detection. The developed approach enables reliable, safe landing site detection by i) generating simultaneously a safety prediction map and its uncertainty map via Bayesian deep learning and semantic segmentation, and ii) using the uncertainty map to filter out the uncertain pixels in the prediction map so that the safe site identification is performed only based on the certain pixels (i.e., pixels for which the model is certain about its safety prediction). Experiments are presented with simulated data based on a Mars HiRISE digital terrain model by varying uncertainty threshold and noise levels to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach.

Kento Tomita↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unorthodox Parallelization for Bayesian Quantum State Estimation

Bayesian inference enables informationally efficient quantum state tomography (QST) yet is challenging to scale computationally. We demonstrate a parallelizable Bayesian QST method that, although unorthodox, proves remarkably practical, attaining significant speedups in multiqubit state estimation.

Nguyen, Hanson H. [Arizona State University] (ORCI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian batch optimization for molybdenum versus tungsten inertial confinement fusion double shell target design

Access to reliable, clean energy sources is a major concern for national security. Much research is focused on the “grand challenge” of producing energy via controlled fusion reactions in a laboratory setting. For fusion experiments, specifically inertial confinement fusion (ICF), to produce sufficient energy, the fusion reactions in the ICF fuel need to become self-sustaining and burn deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel efficiently. The recent record-breaking NIF ignition shot was able to achieve this goal as well as produce more energy than used to drive the experiment. This achievement brings self-sustaining fusion-based power systems closer than ever before, capable of providing humans with access to secure, renewable energy. In order to further progress toward the actualization of such power systems, more ICF experiments need to be conducted at large laser facilities such as the United States's National Ignition Facility (NIF) or France's Laser Mega-Joule. The high cost per shot and limited number of shots that are possible per year make it prohibitive to perform large numbers of experiments. As such, experimental design relies heavily on complex predictive physics simulations for high-fidelity “preshot” analysis. These multidimensional, multi-physics, high-fidelity simulations have to account for a variety of input parameters as well as modeling the extreme conditions (pressures and densities) present at ignition. Such simulations (especially in 3D) can become computationally prohibitive to turn around for each ICF experiment. In this work, we explore using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes (GPs) to find optimal designs for ICF double shell targets, while keeping computational costs to manageable levels. These double shell targets have an inner shell that grades from beryllium on the outer surface to the higher Z material molybdenum, as opposed to the nominally used tungsten, on the inside in order to trade off between the high performance associated with high density inner shells and capsule stability. We describe our results for “capsule-only” xRAGE simulations to study the physics between different capsule designs, inner shell materials, and potential for future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial‐Uniformity–Driven Bayesian Optimization for Rapid Development of Printed Perovskite Solar Cells

Printed metal halide perovskites can enable rapid, roll-to-roll manufacturing of a broad class of optoelectronics—flexible solar cells and imagers among them—while promising cost and speed advantages over incumbent silicon. However, though current methods offer high throughput and patterning capabilities, perovskite films’ spatial heterogeneity remains a challenge for large-area devices. Here, a spatial-uniformity-driven Bayesian optimization (BO) approach is leveraged to accelerate the development of printed perovskite solar cells and improve large-area device performance. Using a BO surrogate model, a 6D design space of ink chemistry and printing physics is explored via extensive iterative experimentation (≈100) informed by an objective function capturing spatial photoluminescence (PL) variance. It is discovered that optimizing for uniformity drives rapid advances in photovoltaic performance, yielding ≈20% power conversion efficiency (PCE) for small area (0.134 cm 2 ) devices and > 16% for large area (1 cm 2 ) devices. This machine-learning approach simultaneously enables rheological comparison of ink formulations that accelerate the leveling of Saffman-Taylor artifacts and improve film uniformity. Here, this showcases uniformity-driven BO as an efficient approach for uncovering the key printing physics and mitigating spatial heterogeneity to enable device scaling beyond small cell areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization for materials discovery in high entropy alloy spaces

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful and data-efficient method for iterative materials discovery and design, particularly valuable when prior knowledge is limited, underlying functional relationships are complex or unknown, and the cost of querying the materials space is significant. Traditional BO methodologies typically utilize conventional Gaussian Processes (cGPs) to model the relationships between material inputs and properties, as well as correlations within the input space. However, cGP-BO approaches often fall short in multi-objective optimization scenarios, where they are unable to fully exploit correlations between distinct material properties. Leveraging these correlations can significantly enhance the discovery process, as information about one property can inform and improve predictions about others. Here, this study addresses this limitation by employing advanced kernel structures to capture and model multi-dimensional property correlations through multi-task (MTGPs) or deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs), thus accelerating the discovery process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MTGP-BO and DGP-BO in rapidly and robustly solving complex materials design challenges that occur within the context of complex multi-objective optimization over FCC FeCrNiCoCu high entropy alloy (HEA) spaces, where traditional cGP-BO approaches fail. Furthermore, we highlight how the differential costs associated with querying various material properties can be strategically leveraged to make the materials discovery process more cost-efficient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response using a degradation-aware Bayesian Optimization-Mixed-Integer Linear Programming framework

The increasing integration of renewable energy and rising electricity demand highlight the importance of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response. Unlike prior approaches that overlook operational impacts on degradation, this study proposes a Bayesian Optimization–Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for optimal battery energy storage system sizing. In this framework, Mixed Integer Linear Programming determines short-term scheduling while a calibrated electrochemical model iteratively evaluates degradation. The central hypothesis is that the framework can efficiently identify optimal sizes that yield realistic and economically robust outcomes. The method is tested across three scenarios: peak shaving, peak shaving with energy-reduction demand response, and peak shaving with power-reduction demand response. Results show that the framework converge to the optimum within 20 iterations out of 150 possible sizes. Under baseline conditions, the framework consistently selects the smallest feasible system, minimizing unnecessary degradation costs from oversized storage. Sensitivity analyses reveal that larger systems are favored as demand rates or incentives increase. Comparisons of demand response programs indicate that power-reduction demand response offers greater economic benefits than energy-reduction demand response, although demand savings from peak shaving remain the dominant contributor to overall performance. This study demonstrates that the proposed framework balances computational tractability with degradation fidelity, identifies critical economic thresholds for investment, and offers a practical, flexible tool to guide industrial stakeholders in cost-effective battery energy storage system deployment.

Batteries↗
DOE OSTI2024

a priori uncertainty quantification of reacting turbulence closure models using Bayesian neural networks

While many physics-based closure model forms have been posited for the sub-filter scale (SFS) in large eddy simulation (LES), vast amounts of data available from direct numerical simulations (DNS) create opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques. Albeit flexible, data-driven models still depend on the dataset and the functional form of the model chosen. Increased adoption of such models requires reliable uncertainty estimates both in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. Here, in this work, we employ Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in a reacting flow model. In particular, we model the filtered progress variable scalar dissipation rate which plays a key role in the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames. We demonstrate that BNN models can provide unique insights about the structure of uncertainty of the data-driven closure models. We also propose a method for the incorporation of out-of-distribution information in a BNN, which can be used for out-of-distribution query detection. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by a priori evaluation on a dataset consisting of a variety of flame conditions and fuels.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗