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NASA NTRS2017

Qualitative Future Safety Risk Identification an Update

The purpose of this report is to document the results of a high-level qualitative study that was conducted to identify future aviation safety risks and to assess the potential impacts to the National Airspace System (NAS) of NASA Aviation Safety research on these risks. Multiple external sources (for example, the National Transportation Safety Board, the Flight Safety Foundation, the National Research Council, and the Joint Planning and Development Office) were used to develop a compilation of future safety issues risks, also referred to as future tall poles. The primary criterion used to identify the most critical future safety risk issues was that the issue must be cited in several of these sources as a safety area of concern. The tall poles in future safety risk, in no particular order of importance, are as follows: Runway Safety, Loss of Control In Flight, Icing Ice Detection, Loss of Separation, Near Midair Collision Human Fatigue, Increasing Complexity and Reliance on Automation, Vulnerability Discovery, Data Sharing and Dissemination, and Enhanced Survivability in the Event of an Accident.

future aviation safety risk↗

NASA NTRS2013

Work Practice Simulation of Complex Human-Automation Systems in Safety Critical Situations: The Brahms Generalized berlingen Model

The transition from the current air traffic system to the next generation air traffic system will require the introduction of new automated systems, including transferring some functions from air traffic controllers to on-board automation. This report describes a new design verification and validation (V&V) methodology for assessing aviation safety. The approach involves a detailed computer simulation of work practices that includes people interacting with flight-critical systems. The research is part of an effort to develop new modeling and verification methodologies that can assess the safety of flight-critical systems, system configurations, and operational concepts. The 2002 Ueberlingen mid-air collision was chosen for analysis and modeling because one of the main causes of the accident was one crew's response to a conflict between the instructions of the air traffic controller and the instructions of TCAS, an automated Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System on-board warning system. It thus furnishes an example of the problem of authority versus autonomy. It provides a starting point for exploring authority/autonomy conflict in the larger system of organization, tools, and practices in which the participants' moment-by-moment actions take place. We have developed a general air traffic system model (not a specific simulation of Überlingen events), called the Brahms Generalized Ueberlingen Model (Brahms-GUeM). Brahms is a multi-agent simulation system that models people, tools, facilities/vehicles, and geography to simulate the current air transportation system as a collection of distributed, interactive subsystems (e.g., airports, air-traffic control towers and personnel, aircraft, automated flight systems and air-traffic tools, instruments, crew). Brahms-GUeM can be configured in different ways, called scenarios, such that anomalous events that contributed to the Überlingen accident can be modeled as functioning according to requirements or in an anomalous condition, as occurred during the accident. Brahms-GUeM thus implicitly defines a class of scenarios, which include as an instance what occurred at Überlingen. Brahms-GUeM is a modeling framework enabling "what if" analysis of alternative work system configurations and thus facilitating design of alternative operations concepts. It enables subsequent adaption (reusing simulation components) for modeling and simulating NextGen scenarios. This project demonstrates that BRAHMS provides the capacity to model the complexity of air transportation systems, going beyond idealized and simple flights to include for example the interaction of pilots and ATCOs. The research shows clearly that verification and validation must include the entire work system, on the one hand to check that mechanisms exist to handle failures of communication and alerting subsystems and/or failures of people to notice, comprehend, or communicate problematic (unsafe) situations; but also to understand how people must use their own judgment in relating fallible systems like TCAS to other sources of information and thus to evaluate how the unreliability of automation affects system safety. The simulation shows in particular that distributed agents (people and automated systems) acting without knowledge of each others' actions can create a complex, dynamic system whose interactive behavior is unexpected and is changing too quickly to comprehend and control.

complex systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Concept of Operations (ConOps) of an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM)

The growth of new emerging operations involving Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) necessitates developing a perspective for an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS). This perspective advances from the National Academies report on IASMS and its recommendation for developing a Concept of Operations (ConOps) for IASMS. A ConOps has been developed for In-time System-Wide Safety Assurance (ISSA) from which the IASMS ConOps pivots to provide a robust scope commensurate with the broad vision defined by the National Academies. The IASMS ConOps focuses on emerging operations and spans innovations in Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) and an increasingly complex ecosystem comprised of a widening mix of vehicles and technologies, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) with industry-federated services, traditional operations, as well as new supersonic aircraft and space launch systems.The challenge for the IASMS ConOps is to be broad to encompass innovations in the coming years and decades while agile to ensure levels of safety compatible with operational and certification requirements of the National Airspace System (NAS). The IASMS ConOps interweaves increasing complexity of operational safety capabilities and unlocking UAS Maturity Levels (UMLs). The relationships between increased complexity of automation and automated systems, fewer operators who are not as traditionally higher skilled, more complex operational environments, and aviation operations management with mixed aircraft and equipage pose a multi-dimensional space for IASMS capabilities essential for safety assurance and risk management. Instantiating IASMS capabilities and how they would be integral to AAM operations and increasing maturity of UAM could be accomplished through a series of Safety Demonstrators. These Safety Demonstrators could provide increased understanding and insight into use of controls for risk mitigation, means of compliance for certification, and operational experience with safety services such as in relation to contingency management. The IASMS capabilities can be viewed as initially residing with the vehicle, airspace, and Supplemental Data Service Provider (SDSP). For example, vehicle capabilities include communications including the command and control link, Remote Identification (ID), conflict advisory/alerting, and UAS system monitoring. These capabilities monitor and assess data such as battery health, aircraft state, and human performance. Complexity of ISAMS capabilities depends on a number of factors. These factors are intendedonly as a notional categorization with the purpose being to reflect the complexity of the AAM ecosystem that would drive up the complexity of ISSA capabilities including systems, sensors, models, standards, and controls. Factors could include the Vehicle Flight Management, Environment, Airspace, and Contingency Management. Each of these factors can be comprised of multiple sub-factors that contribute to increasing complexity. For example, Airspace at a lower level of complexity could be dedicated to UTM operations that are unmonitored, and at a higher level of complexity could involve mixed UTM and ATM operations. The IASMS concept includes safety services that provide data and information to different participants in AAM. The roles and responsibilities of participants can be defined using the Responsible-Accountable-Consulted-Informed (RACI) analysis. For example, for the safety service involving the Remote ID, the Operator would be accountable for providing the data, the Vehicle would be responsible for transmitting it, and the USS, SDSP, Vertiports, FIMS (FAA), and Public Entities such as safety services would be informed by receiving the data. The IASMS ConOps identifies the capabilities needed for risk mitigation and safety assurance in the increasingly complex national airspace. The ConOps serves as a pathway for engaging with industry to gain operational experience including through the Safety Demonstrator series, the RACI analysis, and operational complexity factors. The ConOps serves to integrate these different perspectives to build a cohesive and cogent approach to an AAM safety management system.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

NASA NTRS2022

Natural Language Processing Techniques for Intelligent Knowledge Management of Safety Reports

Safety, failure, and incident reports are common artifacts across various domains, including aviation and wildfire response. These reports are often mandatory to submit, resulting in the culmination of large repositories of text-based documents. Simultaneously, these reports and corresponding repositories are often only manually analyzed and queried by users via out-of-date search engines. As a consequence, we have been developing the Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) toolkit, which uses natural language processing to improve information access and reuse. In this presentation, we discuss natural language processing techniques for knowledge discovery and apply these methods to a repository of aerial wildfire mishap reports. Two methods are used for knowledge discovery: topic modeling and named-entity recognition. We use topic modeling to identify hazards and perform a trend analysis to produce a data-driven risk matrix. A custom named-entity recognition model, build from fine tuning a pre-trained language model, is used to identify failure modes, failure causes, failure effects, control processes, and recommendations to aid in failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Throughout the presentation, we discuss and apply natural language processing techniques to better leverage the vast amount of information contained in report repositories.

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2013

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

prospection↗

NASA NTRS2006

Enabling the Discovery of Recurring Anomalies in Aerospace System Problem Reports using High-Dimensional Clustering Techniques

This paper describes the results of a significant research and development effort conducted at NASA Ames Research Center to develop new text mining techniques to discover anomalies in free-text reports regarding system health and safety of two aerospace systems. We discuss two problems of significant importance in the aviation industry. The first problem is that of automatic anomaly discovery about an aerospace system through the analysis of tens of thousands of free-text problem reports that are written about the system. The second problem that we address is that of automatic discovery of recurring anomalies, i.e., anomalies that may be described m different ways by different authors, at varying times and under varying conditions, but that are truly about the same part of the system. The intent of recurring anomaly identification is to determine project or system weakness or high-risk issues. The discovery of recurring anomalies is a key goal in building safe, reliable, and cost-effective aerospace systems. We address the anomaly discovery problem on thousands of free-text reports using two strategies: (1) as an unsupervised learning problem where an algorithm takes free-text reports as input and automatically groups them into different bins, where each bin corresponds to a different unknown anomaly category; and (2) as a supervised learning problem where the algorithm classifies the free-text reports into one of a number of known anomaly categories. We then discuss the application of these methods to the problem of discovering recurring anomalies. In fact the special nature of recurring anomalies (very small cluster sizes) requires incorporating new methods and measures to enhance the original approach for anomaly detection. ?& pant 0-

Srivastava, Ashok, N.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Streamlining Software Aspects of Certification: Report on the SSAC Survey

The aviation system now depends on information technology more than ever before to ensure safety and efficiency. To address concerns about the efficacy of software aspects of the certification process, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) began the Streamlining Software Aspects of Certification (SSAC) program. The SSAC technical team was commissioned to gather data, analyze results, and propose recommendations to maximize efficiency and minimize cost and delay, without compromising safety. The technical team conducted two public workshops to identify and prioritize software approval issues, and conducted a survey to validate the most urgent of those issues. The SSAC survey, containing over two hundred questions about the FAA's software approval process, reached over four hundred industry software developers, aircraft manufacturers, and FAA designated engineering representatives. Three hundred people responded. This report presents the SSAC program rationale, survey process, preliminary findings, and recommendations.

Hayhurst, Kelly J.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Runtime Assurance of Aeronautical Products: Preliminary Recommendations

Runtime assurance (RTA) affords an operational layer of protection against safety hazards to aeronautical products that may include less trusted or untrusted functions. However, any RTA scheme must itself be trusted before it can be deployed into use: i.e., it must be fit for its intended purpose, and it must not itself introduce safety hazards. This report contains preliminary recommendations on the application and integration of RTA into aeronautical products intended for use in civil aviation. The main purpose of these recommendations is to inform regulatory guidance and consensus standards that may be used to meet the safety intent of the applicable regulations.

Runtime assurance↗

NASA NTRS1991

The 1991 International Aerospace and Ground Conference on Lightning and Static Electricity, volume 1

The proceedings of the 1991 International Aerospace and Ground Conference on Lightning and Static Electricity are reported. Some of the topics covered include: lightning, lightning suppression, aerospace vehicles, aircraft safety, flight safety, aviation meteorology, thunderstorms, atmospheric electricity, warning systems, weather forecasting, electromagnetic coupling, electrical measurement, electrostatics, aircraft hazards, flight hazards, meteorological parameters, cloud (meteorology), ground effect, electric currents, lightning equipment, electric fields, measuring instruments, electrical grounding, and aircraft instruments.

William Jafferis↗

NASA NTRS1981

Demonstration Advanced Avionics System (DAAS). Phase 1 report

An integrated avionics system which provides expanded functional capabilities that significantly enhance the utility and safety of general aviation at a cost commensurate with the general aviation market is discussed. Displays and control were designed so that the pilot can use the system after minimum training. Functional and hardware descriptions, operational evaluation and failure modes effects analysis are included.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1998

The UNO Aviation Monograph Series: Aviation Security: An Annotated Bibliography of Responses to the Gore Commission

This monograph is a companion to UNOAI Monograph 96-2, "The Image of Airport Security: An Annotated Bibliography," compiled in June 1996. The White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security, headed by Vice President Al Gore, was formed as a result of the TWA Flight 800 crash in August 1996. The Commission's final report included 31 recommendations addressed toward aviation security. The recommendations were cause for security issues to be revisited in the media and by the aviation industry. These developments necessitated the need for an updated bibliography to review the resulting literature. Many of the articles were written in response to the recommendations made by the Gore Commission. "Aviation Security: An Annotated Bibliography of Responses to the Gore Commission" is the result of this need.

Carrico, John S.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Assessment of Aircraft Electric Engine Regulatory Special Conditions

This report provides a regulatory gap assessment of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) Special Conditions (SC) for electric engines. This information is presented to support ongoing international harmonization efforts for electric engine certification, to establish a level of safety consistent across regulatory bodies and equivalent to that of existing combustion engines. HS Advanced Concepts LLC assembled a team of subject-matter experts to develop a comprehensive comparison of the regulatory text of EASA SC E-19 and the FAA special conditions for the certification of electric engines. The team included Mr. Chris Baczynski of BAC Aerospace Inc. and Mr. Zach Kaufman, formerly with magniX.

aircraft certification↗

NASA NTRS1996

APMS: An Integrated Set of Tools for Measuring Safety

This is a report of work in progress. In it, I summarize the status of the research and development of the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS) for managing, processing, and analyzing digital flight-recorded data. The objectives of the NASA-FAA APMS research project are to establish a sound scientific and technological basis for flight-data analysis, to define an open and flexible architecture for flight-data-analysis systems, and to articulate guidelines for a standardized database structure on which to continue to build future flight-data-analysis extensions. APMS will offer to the air transport community an open, voluntary standard for flight-data-analysis software, a standard that will help to ensure suitable functionality, and data interchangeability, among competing software programs. APMS will develop and document the methodologies, algorithms, and procedures for data management and analyses to enable users to easily interpret the implications regarding safety and efficiency of operations. APMS does not entail the implementation of a nationwide flight-data-collection system. It is intended to provide technical tools to ease the large-scale implementation of flight-data analyses at both the air-carrier and the national-airspace levels in support of their Flight Operations and Quality Assurance (FOQA) Programs and Advanced Qualifications Programs (AQP). APMS cannot meet its objectives unless it develops tools that go substantially beyond the capabilities of the current commercially available software and supporting analytic methods that are mainly designed to count special events. These existing capabilities, while of proven value, were created primarily with the needs of air crews in mind. APMS tools must serve the needs of the government and air carriers, as well as air crews, to fully support the FOQA and AQP programs. They must be able to derive knowledge not only through the analysis of single flights (special-event detection), but through statistical evaluation of the performance of large groups of flights. This paper describes the integrated suite of tools that will assist analysts in evaluating the operational performance and safety of the national air transport system, the air carrier, and the air crew.

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

APMS: An Integrated Suite of Tools for Measuring Performance and Safety

This is a report of work in progress. In it, I summarize the status of the research and development of the Aviation Performance Measuring System (APMS) for managing, processing, and analyzing digital flight-recorded data. The objectives of the NASA-FAA APMS research project are to establish a sound scientific and technological basis for flight-data analysis, to define an open and flexible architecture for flight-data-analysis systems, and to articulate guidelines for a standardized database structure on which to continue to build future flight-data-analysis extensions . APMS will offer to the air transport community an open, voluntary standard for flight-data-analysis software, a standard that will help to ensure suitable functionality, and data interchangeability, among competing software programs. APMS will develop and document the methodologies, algorithms, and procedures for data management and analyses to enable users to easily interpret the implications regarding safety and efficiency of operations. APMS does not entail the implementation of a nationwide flight-data-collection system. It is intended to provide technical tools to ease the large-scale implementation of flight-data analyses at both the air-carrier and the national-airspace levels in support of their Flight Operations and Quality Assurance (FOQA) Programs and Advanced Qualifications Programs (AQP). APMS cannot meet its objectives unless it develops tools that go substantially beyond the capabilities of the current commercially available software and supporting analytic methods that are mainly designed to count special events. These existing capabilities, while of proven value, were created primarily with the needs of air crews in mind. APMS tools must serve the needs of the government and air carriers, as well as air crews, to fully support the FOQA and AQP programs. They must be able to derive knowledge not only through the analysis of single flights (special-event detection), but through statistical evaluation of the performance of large groups of flights. This paper describes the integrated suite of tools that will assist analysts in evaluating the operational performance and safety of the national air transport system, the air carrier, and the air crew.

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

APMS: An Integrated Suite of Tools for Measuring Performance and Safety

Statler, Irving C.↗

NASA NTRS1979

NASA/FAA general aviation crash dynamics program - A status report

The objective of the Langley Research Center general aviation crash dynamics program is to develop technology for improved crash safety and occupant survivability in general aviation aircraft. The program involves three basic areas of research: controlled full-scale crash testing, nonlinear structural analyses to predict large deflection elasto-plastic response, and load attenuating concepts for use in improved seat and subfloor structure. Both analytical and experimental methods are used to develop expertise in these areas. Analyses include simplified procedures for estimating energy dissipating capabilities and complex computerized procedures for predicting airframe response. These analyses are being developed to provide designers with methods for predicting accelerations, loads, and displacements of collapsing structure. Tests on typical full-scale aircraft and on full- and sub-scale structural components are being performed to verify the analyses and to demonstrate load attenuating concepts.

Thomson, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aviation Weather Information Requirements Study

The Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has as its goal an improvement in aviation safety by a factor of 5 over the next 10 years and a factor of 10 over the next 20 years. Since weather has a big impact on aviation safety and is associated with 30% of all aviation accidents, Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) is a major element under this program. The Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) Distribution and Presentation project is one of three projects under this element. This report contains the findings of a study conducted by the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) under the Enhanced Weather Products effort, which is a task under AWIN. The study examines current aviation weather products and there application. The study goes on to identify deficiencies in the current system and to define requirements for aviation weather products that would lead to an increase in safety. The study also provides an overview the current set of sensors applied to the collection of aviation weather information. New, modified, or fused sensor systems are identified which could be applied in improving the current set of weather products and in addressing the deficiencies defined in the report. In addition, the study addresses and recommends possible sensors for inclusion in an electronic pilot reporting (EPIREP) system.

Keel, Byron M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Error Generation in CATS-Based Agents

This research presents a methodology for generating errors from a model of nominally preferred correct operator activities, given a particular operational context, and maintaining an explicit link to the erroneous contextual information to support analyses. It uses the Crew Activity Tracking System (CATS) model as the basis for error generation. This report describes how the process works, and how it may be useful for supporting agent-based system safety analyses. The report presents results obtained by applying the error-generation process and discusses implementation issues. The research is supported by the System-Wide Accident Prevention Element of the NASA Aviation Safety Program.

Callantine, Todd↗