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NASA NTRS1993

Simulation of UV atomic radiation for application in exhaust plume spectrometry

Quantitative analysis of exhaust plume spectral data has long been a goal of developers of advanced engine health monitoring systems which incorporate optical measurements of rocket exhaust constituents. Discussed herein is the status of present efforts to model and predict atomic radiation spectra and infer free-atom densities from emission/absorption measurements as part of the Optical Plume Anomaly Detection (OPAD) program at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). A brief examination of the mathematical formalism is provided in the context of predicting radiation from the Mach disk region of the SSME exhaust flow at nominal conditions during ground level testing at MSFC. Computational results are provided for Chromium and Copper at selected transitions which indicate a strong dependence upon broadening parameter values determining the absorption-emission line shape. Representative plots of recent spectral data from the Stennis Space Center (SSC) Diagnostic Test Facility (DTF) rocket engine are presented and compared to numerical results from the present self-absorbing model; a comprehensive quantitative analysis will be reported at a later date.

Wallace, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

FIDEX: An expert system for satellite diagnostics

A Fault Isolation and Diagnostic Expert system (FIDEX) was developed for communication satellite diagnostics. It was designed specifically for the 30/20 GHz satellite transponder. The expert system was designed with a generic structure and features that make it applicable to other types of space systems. FIDEX is a frame based system that enjoys many of the inherent frame base features, such as hierarchy that describes the transponder's components, with other hierarchies that provide structural and fault information about the transponder. This architecture provides a flexible diagnostic structure and enhances maintenance of the system. FIDEX also includes an inexact reasoning technique and a primitive learning ability. Inexact reasoning was an important feature for this system due to the sparse number of sensors available to provide information on the transponder's performance. FIDEX can determine the most likely faulted component under the constraint of limited information. FIDEX learns about the most likely faults in the transponder by keeping a record of past established faults. FIDEX also has the ability to detect anomalies in the sensors that provide information on the transponders performance.

Durkin, John↗
NASA NTRS2002

A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset

CRU TS (Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series) is a widely used climate dataset on a 0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude grid over all land domains of the world except Antarctica. It is derived by the interpolation of monthly climate anomalies from extensive networks of weather station observations. Here we describe the construction of a major new version, CRU TS v4. It is updated to span 1901–2018 by the inclusion of additional station observations, and it will be updated annually. The interpolation process has been changed to use angular-distance weighting (ADW), and the production of secondary variables has been revised to better suit this approach. This implementation of ADW provides improved traceability between each gridded value and the input observations, and allows more informative diagnostics that dataset users can utilise to assess how dataset quality might vary geographically.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prognostics and Health Management in Nuclear Power Plants: An Updated Method-Centric Review With Special Focus on Data-Driven Methods

In a carbon-constrained world, future uses of nuclear power technologies can contribute to climate change mitigation as the installed electricity generating capacity and range of applications could be much greater and more diverse than with the current plants. To preserve the nuclear industry competitiveness in the global energy market, prognostics and health management (PHM) of plant assets is expected to be important for supporting and sustaining improvements in the economics associated with operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) while maintaining their high availability. Of interest are long-term operation of the legacy fleet to 80 years through subsequent license renewals and economic operation of new builds of either light water reactors or advanced reactor designs. Recent advances in data-driven analysis methods—largely represented by those in artificial intelligence and machine learning—have enhanced applications ranging from robust anomaly detection to automated control and autonomous operation of complex systems. The NPP equipment PHM is one area where the application of these algorithmic advances can significantly improve the ability to perform asset management. This paper provides an updated method-centric review of the full PHM suite in NPPs focusing on data-driven methods and advances since the last major survey article was published in 2015. The main approaches and the state of practice are described, including those for the tasks of data acquisition, condition monitoring, diagnostics, prognostics, and planning and decision-making. Research advances in non-nuclear power applications are also included to assess findings that may be applicable to the nuclear industry, along with the opportunities and challenges when adapting these developments to NPPs. Finally, this paper identifies key research needs in regard to data availability and quality, verification and validation, and uncertainty quantification.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Isotopic, optical, and trace element properties of large single SiC grains from the Murchison meteorite

Ion probe mass spectrometry is used to analyze 41 large SiC grains from the Murchison CM2 chondrite, ranging up to 15 x 26 microns, for the isotopic compositions of C, N, Mg, and Si, and the concentrations of Al, Ti, V, Fe, Zr, and Ba. The majority were found to have large isotopic anomalies. Only two grains, characterized by extremely heavy carbon, give evidence for fossil Mg-26. On the basis of C and Si isotopic composition, 29 of the grains fall into three compact clusters, presumably from three discrete sources. The clustering of coarse-grained SiC stands in sharp contrast to the quasi-continuous distribution of finer-grained SiC and suggests that the top 0.1 percent of the mass distribution is a distinct population. The C and N isotopic compositions of the anomalous grains are not very diagnostic, being consistent with H-burning in the CNO cycle. The Si-isotopic compositions qualitatively show the signature of neutron capture in He-burning shells of highly evolved stars.

Virag, Alois↗
NASA NTRS2020

InSight Robotic Arm Testing Activities for HP3 Mole Anomaly Recovery on Mars

The InSight lander’s Heat Flow and Physical Properties Package (HP3) was deployed on Mars in February 2019and began attempting to penetrate to its target depth range of3-5 meters shortly thereafter. However, the mole’s downwardprogress stopped after only 35 cm of penetration. In response,the project convened an Anomaly Response Team (ART) andsince then has been attempting to diagnose the problem andassist the mole using the tools available on Mars. The key assetused in this effort has been the Instrument Deployment System(IDS), which includes two cameras and a robotic InstrumentDeployment Arm (IDA). Since the IDS was originally intendedonly to deploy InSight’s primary instruments to the Martiansurface, new testbed setups, experiments, and operational protocols (e.g., command sequences) were required and had to bedeveloped on a short timeline. The HP3 Mole ART first focusedon gathering all observable data on Mars about the state ofthe mole and Support Structure Assembly (SSA), as well asthe physical properties of the Martian regolith. This includedusing the robotic arm to point the IDC at the SSA duringdiagnostic hammering attempts to observe motion of the SSAand science tether. Images taken during these attempts revealedsome motion of the SSA, but no apparent change in mole depth.At JPL, the IDS and Testbed teams re-created the hardwareconfiguration on Mars based on limited knowledge of the mole’sstate. They devised and tested techniques to use the roboticarm and cameras to accomplish previously untested activitieson Mars, including imaging the HP3, using the IDA to interactwith the terrain, and using the IDA to move the SSA awayfrom the partially-embedded mole. The team executed the morepromising techniques on Mars. After diagnostic hammering onMars, the team decided to move the SSA to gain visibility ofthe mole’s configuration and access to the soil around the mole.After developing the technique and practicing the maneuver inthe InSight testbed, the team lifted the SSA on Mars and placedit behind the mole. This revealed a pit surrounding the nowexposed mole, observations of which provided essential cluesfor determining the root cause of the mole’s lack of progress.The IDS and Testbed teams altered the testbed to match thesituation on Mars. They devised IDA techniques to determinethe Martian soil properties and assist the mole’s descent. Theytested these techniques in the testbed and executed the more978-1-7281-2734-7/20/$31.00 c 2021 IEEE. Copyright 2020 CaliforniaInstitute of Technology. U.S. Government sponsorship acknowledged.promising ones on Mars. These include using the robotic arm toalter the regolith near the mole and to push on the mole while ithammers. This paper discusses the anomaly resolution testing inthe testbed at JPL, describes how the IDS team prepared for theanomaly recovery activities on Mars, and provides preliminaryresults of the efforts to assist the HP3 mole on Mars.

Kim, Junggon↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Monitoring and Control in the ANL METL Facility Using an Engineering Digital Twin

The potential benefits of using an engineering digital twin to achieve greater autonomy for monitoring and control functions in advanced reactors was investigated for the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) liquid sodium facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The METL sodium purification system served as a representative system as it requires significant human in-the-loop interaction to accomplish its design function. The objective was to demonstrate how real-time operation could be automated while preserving oversight of the operator for ensuring that the system design functions are met. A digital twin model of the purification system was developed for both the cold trap purification loop and plugging meter diagnostic loop using information from the METL piping and instrumentation diagram (P&ID). Automated monitoring and diagnosis of component degradation in the METL facility was demonstrated in tests using the PRO-AID health monitoring software with the digital twin model incorporated in the library of components. Component failures were introduced and were successfully diagnosed in real time. These tests serve to demonstrate an advanced monitoring capability able to differentiate sensor degradation from component degradation, to generate a rank ordering of probabilities of different failure mechanisms that serves to circumvent the false alarm problem with current anomaly detection methods, and how facility monitoring can be transformed from anomaly detection to identification of a specific fault. Automated control of the purification system was demonstrated through simulations that exercised a model predictive controller designed using the digital twin model. Results of these simulations compared favorably with experimental data showing very good reference tracking response with negligible overshoot. In conclusion, these pilot tests and simulations successfully demonstrated the use of a digital twin for improved automation of monitoring and control. It was shown how the digital twin enables switching between control modes from cold trap operation where impurities are removed to plugging meter operation where impurity concentrations are measured.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Zhou, Jiayu↗
NASA NTRS2014

Human Exploration Science Office (KX) Overview

The Human Exploration Science Office supports human spaceflight, conducts research, and develops technology in the areas of space orbital debris, hypervelocity impact technology, image science and analysis, remote sensing, imagery integration, and human and robotic exploration science. NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) resides in the Human Exploration Science Office. ODPO provides leadership in orbital debris research and the development of national and international space policy on orbital debris. The office is recognized internationally for its measurement and modeling of the debris environment. It takes the lead in developing technical consensus across U.S. agencies and other space agencies on debris mitigation measures to protect users of the orbital environment. The Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) project evaluates the risks to spacecraft posed by micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD). HVIT facilities at JSC and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) use light gas guns, diagnostic tools, and high-speed imagery to quantify the response of spacecraft materials to MMOD impacts. Impact tests, with debris environment data provided by ODPO, are used by HVIT to predict risks to NASA and commercial spacecraft. HVIT directly serves NASA crew safety with MMOD risk assessments for each crewed mission and research into advanced shielding design for future missions. The Image Science and Analysis Group (ISAG) supports the International Space Station (ISS) and commercial spaceflight through the design of imagery acquisition schemes (ground- and vehicle-based) and imagery analyses for vehicle performance assessments and mission anomaly resolution. ISAG assists the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program in the development of camera systems for the Orion spacecraft that will serve as data sources for flight test objectives that lead to crewed missions. The multi-center Imagery Integration Team is led by the Human Exploration Science Office and provides expertise in the application of engineering imagery to spaceflight. The team links NASA programs and private industry with imagery capabilities developed and honed through decades of human spaceflight, including imagery integration, imaging assets, imagery data management, and photogrammetric analysis. The team is currently supporting several NASA programs, including commercial demonstration missions. The Earth Science and Remote Sensing Team is responsible for integrating the scientific use of Earth-observation assets onboard the ISS, which consist of externally mounted sensors and crew photography capabilities. This team facilitates collaboration on remote sensing and participates in research with academic organizations and other Government agencies, not only in conjunction with ISS science, but also for planetary exploration and regional environmental/geological studies. Human exploration science focuses on science strategies for future human exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, asteroids, and beyond. This function provides communication and coordination between the science community and mission planners. ARES scientists support the operation of robotic missions (i.e., Mars Exploration Rovers and the Mars Science Laboratory), contribute to the interpretation of returned mission data, and translate robotic mission technologies and techniques to human spaceflight.

Calhoun, Tracy A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

MG Isotopic Measurement of FIB-Isolated Presolar Silicate Grains

The majority of presolar oxide and silicate grains are ascribed to origins in low-mass red giant and asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars based on their O isotopic ratios. However, a minor population of these grains (< 10%) has O isotopic ratios incompatible with these sources. Two principle alternative sources are higher-than-solar metallicity (Z) stars or, more likely, supernovae (SN) [1-3]. These rare (Group 4) grains [3] are characterized by enrichments in O-18, and typically also enrichments in O-17. An even rarer subset of grains with extremely large enrichments in O-17 and smaller depletions in O-18 were suggested to come from binary star systems [2]. To establish the origins of these isotopically unusual grains, it is necessary to examine isotopic systems in addition to O. Presolar silicates offer several elements diagnostic of their stellar sources and nuclear processes, including O, Si, Mg, Fe and Ca. However, the database for minor element isotopic compositions in silicates is seriously lacking. To date only two silicate grains have been analyzed for Mg [4] or Fe [5]. One major complicating factor is their small size (average ~230 nm), which greatly limits the number of measurements that can be performed on any one grain and makes it more difficult to obtain statistically relevant data. This problem is compounded because the grains are identified among isotopically solar silicates, which contribute a diluting signal in isotopic measurements [1]. Thus, relatively small isotopic anomalies are missed due to this dilution effect. By applying focused ion beam (FIB) milling, we obtain undiluted Mg isotopic ratios of isolated rare presolar silicate grains to investigate their sources.

Messenger, Scott R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Investigation of the collision line broadening problem as applicable to the NASA Optical Plume Anomaly Detection (OPAD) system, phase 1

As a final report for phase 1 of the project, the researchers are submitting to the Tennessee Tech Office of Research the following two papers (reprinted in this report): 'Collision Line Broadening Effects on Spectrometric Data from the Optical Plume Anomaly System (OPAD),' presented at the 30th AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference, 27-29 June 1994, and 'Calculation of Collision Cross Sections for Atomic Line Broadening in the Plume of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME),' presented at the IEEE Southeastcon '95, 26-29 March 1995. These papers fully state the problem and the progress made up to the end of NASA Fiscal Year 1994. The NASA OPAD system was devised to predict concentrations of anomalous species in the plume of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) through analysis of spectrometric data. The self absorption of the radiation of these plume anomalies is highly dependent on the line shape of the atomic transition of interest. The Collision Line Broadening paper discusses the methods used to predict line shapes of atomic transitions in the environment of a rocket plume. The Voigt profile is used as the line shape factor since both Doppler and collisional line broadening are significant. Methods used to determine the collisional cross sections are discussed and the results are given and compared with experimental data. These collisional cross sections are then incorporated into the current self absorbing radiative model and the predicted spectrum is compared to actual spectral data collected from the Stennis Space Center Diagnostic Test Facility rocket engine. The second paper included in this report investigates an analytical method for determining the cross sections for collision line broadening by molecular perturbers, using effective central force interaction potentials. These cross sections are determined for several atomic species with H2, one of the principal constituents of the SSME plume environment, and compared with experimental data.

Dean, Timothy C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Cyclogenesis in a saturated environment

The dynamics of baroclinic wave growth in a saturated environment is examined using linear and nonlinear models employing a parameterization of latent heat release that assumes all rising air is saturated, and saturation equivalent potential temperature is conserved on ascent. Piecewise potential vorticity (PV) diagnostics are used to interpret the results. When the stability to vertical displacements in saturated air is allowed to increase with height, as it must in an atmosphere with a constant, positive lapse rate of potential temperature, the growth rates of the most unstable modes of the Eady problem grow only marginally faster than the modes of the dry problem. The vertical variation of moist static stability produces a gradient of moist potential vorticity in the rising air, eliminating the short-wave cutoff present in the dry Eady problem. The destabilization of the short waves is shown to be associated with the interaction between surface potential temperature anomalies and diabatically generated lower-tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies. Nonlinear primitive equation simulations, starting from normal-mode initial conditions, show that while the dry wave grows at nearly the linear growth rate until maximum amplitude is reached, the moist wave grows significantly faster than the linear growth rate at finite amplitude. This enhanced growth is associated with the rapid amplification of a mesoscale PV anomaly generated by latent heat release at the warm front. The rapid amplification of the surface cyclone results from the superposition of the circulation associated with this misoscale PV anomaly upon the circulation associated with the surface and upper boundary potential temperature anomalies. Additional integrations with finite-amplitude initial conditions more typical of atmospheric conditions exhibit similar behavior. It is suggested that many of the rapid cyclogenesis events that occur as upper-troposheric PV anomalies cross the east coasts of continents may arise from the rapid generation of PV anomalies by condensational heating in the moist maritime lower troposphere.

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Accurate Assessment of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in Climate Models Requires High Frequency Data Output

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centred climate anomalies. Local L-A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L-A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning, and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth, development, and entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team on Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L-A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land-atmosphere interactions span time scales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability of behavioural regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyse, and better understand L-A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behaviour. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant time scales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L-A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.

Kirsten L. Findell↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output

Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centered climate anomalies. Local L–A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L–A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth and development and the entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team in the Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) project is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional Earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L–A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land–atmosphere interactions span timescales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability in behavioral regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here, we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyze, and better understand L–A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behavior. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L–A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Spectroscopic measurements of element abundances in the solar corona: Variations on the FIP theme

Solar wind and solar energetic particle (SEP) data yield systematic differences between elemental abundances in the corona and in the photosphere related to the first ionization potential (FIP) of the elements: low-FIP elements are preferentially enhanced relative to high-FIP elements by about a factor of four. Spectroscopic studies of the inner corona show that such a pattern may apply on average but not in detail for coronal loops: substantial abundance differences occur between different types of coronal structures, and variations have been found from flare to flare, from one active region to another, and over time in the same region; further, in some flares, anomalies such as enhanced Ne:O ratios, distinctly at odds with the FIP pattern, show that a competing element selection mechanism sometimes operates. Details of the observed abundance variability -- such as the magnitude of the variations, the relevant temporal and spatial scales, and correlations with other properties of the given coronal structure -- may give important clues to the processes which supply and heat the corona, or they may reflect the changing physical conditions or locations where those processes take place. However, many such details remain to be established definitively. At present, abundance variability is primarily a major complication to data analysis and interpretation. However, once it is better understood, it may provide a new diagnostic tool for probing the lower layers of the solar atmosphere.

Saba, J. L. R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Forecasting Tonga water vapor effects on the stratosphere during April through August 2022

The ability of an ensemble based Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecast system to capture the circulation anomalies created by the Tonga water vapor injection is investigated using the NASA GEOS-S2S (version 2) system. A 40-member ensemble was initialized in April 2022 based on MERRA-2 meteorology with assimilated Tonga water vapor taken from the M2-SCREAM MLS assimilation. The 40-member forecasts were run through June 2022 with 10 selected members continuing through August 2022. Duplicate ensembles were initialized without the Tonga water vapor as a control experiment. Results show that the forecasted patterns of cooling at 20 hPa, water vapor advection at 20 hPa, and zonal mean winds at 1 hPa agree well the assimilation products out to 4 months, indicating the usefulness of S2S system diagnostics in understanding the impact of the large water perturbation.

Lawrence Coy↗