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DOE OSTI2020

Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change

The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite in sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

In silico assessment of the potential of basalt amendments to reduce N 2 O emissions from bioenergy crops

Abstract The potential of large‐scale deployment of basalt to reduce N 2 O emissions from cultivated soils may contribute to climate stabilization beyond the CO 2 ‐removal effect from enhanced weathering. We used 3 years of field observations from maize ( Zea mays ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) to improve the nitrogen (N) module of the DayCent model and evaluate the potential of basalt amendments to reduce N losses and increase yields from two bioenergy crops. We found 20%–60% improvement in our N 2 O flux estimates over previous model descriptions. Model results predict that the application of basalt would reduce N 2 O emissions by 16% in maize and 9% in miscanthus. Lower N 2 O emissions responded to increases in the N 2 :N 2 O ratio of denitrification with basalt‐induced increases in soil pH, with minor contributions from the impact of P additions (a minor component of some basalts) on N immobilization. The larger reduction of N 2 O emissions in maize than in miscanthus was likely explained by a synergistic effect between soil pH and N content, leading to a higher sensitivity of the N 2 :N 2 O ratio to changes in pH in heavily fertilized maize. Basalt amendments led to modest increases in modeled yields and the nitrogen use efficiency (i.e., fertilizer‐N recover in crop production) of maize but did not affect the productivity of miscanthus. However, enhanced soil P availability maintained the long‐term productivity of crops with high nutrient requirements. The alleviation of plant P limitation led to enhanced plant N uptake, thereby contributing to lower microbial N availability and N 2 O emissions from crops with high nutrient requirements. Our results from the improved model suggest that the large‐scale deployment of basalt, by reducing N 2 O fluxes of cropping systems, could contribute to the sustainable intensification of agriculture and enhance the climate mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microalgae as a future food source

One of the key challenges that we face in the 21st century is the need to feed an ever-increasing human population with increasingly limited natural resources. Even today it is estimated that roughly 1 out of 9 people in the world are undernourished, of which the most important factor is protein-energy malnutrition. By establishing microalgae as a new food and feed platform, we have the opportunity to increase the supply of these essential products to address global demands in a more efficient and environmentally sustainable way. Many types of algae are nutritionally complete foods, their yields outperform most plant crops, and there is a growing set of tools to develop improved strains of algae. Similar improvements were achieved in traditional crops through thousands of years of breeding and strain selection, whereas with the newest genetic engineering tools and advanced strain selection techniques, similar changes can be implemented in microalgae in just a few years. Here we describe different strategies that could be used to enhance the nutritional content, productivity, and organoleptic traits of algae to help drive development of this new crop. Clearly developing more efficient, sustainable, and nutritious foods and feed would be an enormous benefit for the planet, and algae represents an opportunity to develop a new crop that would complement traditional agriculture, and one that could potential result in a more efficient means to meet the world's food and feed supply.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soil organic carbon accumulation rates on Mediterranean abandoned agricultural lands

Secondary succession on abandoned agricultural lands can produce climate change mitigation co-benefits, such as soil carbon sequestration. However, the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC) in Mediterranean regions has been difficult to predict and is subject to multiple environmental and land management factors. Gains, losses, and no significant changes have all been reported. Here we compile chronosequence data (n = 113) from published studies and new field sites to assess the response of SOC to agricultural land abandonment in peninsular Spain. In this work we found an overall SOC accumulation rate of +2.3% yr -1 post-abandonment. SOC dynamics are highly variable and context-dependent. Minimal change occurs on abandoned cereal croplands compared to abandoned woody croplands (+4% yr -1 ). Accumulation is most prevalent within a Goldilocks climatic window of ~13–17 °C and ~450–900 mm precipitation, promoting >100% gains after three decades. Our secondary forest field sites accrued 40.8 Mg C ha -1 (+172%) following abandonment and displayed greater SOC and N depth heterogeneity than natural forests demonstrating the long-lasting impact of agriculture. Although changes in regional climate and crop types abandoned will impact future carbon sequestration, abandonment remains a low-cost, long-term natural climate solution best incorporated in tandem with other multipurpose sustainable land management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Benchmark Eddy Flux Evapotranspiration Dataset for Evaluation of Satellite-Driven Evapotranspiration Models Over the CONUS

A large sample of ground-based evapotranspiration (ET) measurements made in the United States, primarily from eddy covariance systems, were post-processed to produce a benchmark ET dataset. The dataset was produced primarily to support the intercomparison and evaluation of the OpenET satellite-based remote sensing ET (RSET) models and could also be used to evaluate ET data from other models and approaches. OpenET is a web-based service that makes field-delineated and pixel-level ET estimates from well-established RSET models readily available to water managers, agricultural producers, and the public. The benchmark dataset is composed of flux and meteorological data from a variety of providers covering native vegetation and agricultural settings. Flux footprint predictions were developed for each station and included static flux footprints developed based on average wind direction and speed, as well as dynamic hourly footprints that were generated with a physically based model of upwind source area. The two footprint prediction methods were rigorously compared to evaluate their relative spatial coverage. Data from all sources were post-processed in a consistent and reproducible manner including data handling, gap-filling, temporal aggregation, and energy balance closure correction. The resulting dataset included 243,048 daily and 5,284 monthly ET values from 194 stations, with all data falling between 1995 and 2021. We assessed average daily energy imbalance using 172 flux sites with a total of 193,021 days of data, finding that overall turbulent fluxes were understated by about 12% on average relative to available energy. Multiple linear regression analyses indicated that daily average latent energy flux may be typically understated slightly more than sensible heat flux. This dataset was developed to provide a consistent reference to support evaluation of RSET data being developed for a wide range of applications related to water accounting and water resources management at field to watershed scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unlocking aquifer sustainability through irrigator-driven groundwater conservation

Groundwater depletion caused by intensive pumping for irrigated agriculture is a global threat to economies, food security, and ecosystems. Pumping reductions are required to confront this threat, but their implementation is a “wicked” problem due to interlinked hydrological, social, and economic factors. In the US High Plains Aquifer, an irrigator-led conservation effort known as the Sheridan 6 Local Enhanced Management Area (SD-6 LEMA) is a rare example of successful collective action in agricultural-groundwater systems. In its first decade, the area has exceeded water use reduction goals and decreased depletion rates by over 50% without significantly affecting net income. In this Perspective, we highlight factors underlying the SD-6 LEMA’s effectiveness, and identify transferable governance tenets for other groundwater dependent regions striving for sustainable management of groundwater resources. These tenets include flexibility through multi-year allocations, regulatory oversight to support the irrigators’ plans, and a strong scientific foundation for sustainable agricultural-groundwater systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photonic microresonator based sensor for selective nitrate ion detection

Sensing nitrate concentrations in soil with high sensitivity and selectivity using field-deployable compact sensor platforms is a sought-after goal for environment and agriculture applications. This study demonstrates a new optically based nitrate sensing platform based on ion-selective membrane (ISM) functionalized chip-scale photonic micro-ring resonators. Our approach relies upon measurements of resonance shifts in the micro-resonators and leverages the excellent, though little studied, optical properties of ISMs. Using a high-quality micro-ring resonator, a nitrate ion-selective photonic sensor exhibits a detection limit down to 0.1 parts per million (ppm) and enables nitrate concentration measurements in the 1-100 ppm level, appropriate for soil science and agriculture. Importantly, the sensor also shows high selectivity over other competing anions in soil, such as Cl - and NO 2 - . Here, we argue that this chip-scale approach can be incorporated into compact sensor platforms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Forming the Future of Agrohydrology

Agricultural water management is increasingly prioritized throughout the world as producers are tasked with meeting growing crop demand while also managing environmental resources more sustainably. Likewise, agriculture is increasingly modifying the terrestrial water cycle. In response to these dynamics, the informal research discipline of agrohydrology continues to grow, fueled by a new era of rapidly evolving research tools and big data availability. While many researchers are actively invested in agrohydrology as a research topic, there remains a gap in formalizing this valuable discipline. This article aims to: (a) identify key research themes in agrohydrology, (b) conceptualize future research topics within each theme, and (c) estimate a timeframe before topics become pressing (i.e., before a topic becomes a limiting factor in advancing water management in an agricultural context). This commentary is meant to guide the trajectory of an evolving discipline of agrohydrology, the practice of agricultural water management at multiple nested scales, and the conversation of the invested public.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

Current ozone (O 3 ) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O 3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O 3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O 3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010-2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0-6.0, 9.8-18.8, 6.7-10.6 and 10.4-12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O 3 . When O 3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2B (China).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chemical identity of carbon substrates drives differences in denitrification and N 2 O reduction within agricultural soils

Rates of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) production from agricultural soils are highly variable across space and time. Improving predictions of N 2 O emissions will require improving our understanding of the drivers of denitrification and the sources of variability in the rates of N 2 O production between soils and over time. While the amount of available carbon (C) is a known control on denitrification and N 2 O reduction, relatively little attention has been paid to the effect of the chemical identity of C substrates on rates of denitrification and N 2 O reduction. We investigated the effects of twelve different C-substrate additions on the production and reduction of N 2 O in five soils taken from two distinct agricultural locations in Michigan under multiple land uses. We provided additions of glucose, cellulose, N-acetyl-glucosamine, chitin, amino acids, protein, vanillyl alcohol, lignin, citrate, succinate, methanol, and water in laboratory denitrification potential assays to determine the effects of denitrifier C preference on denitrification rates. We found that amino acids, protein, and organic acids stimulated the greatest rates of denitrification potential across all land uses. Similarly, we found these same substrates caused the most N 2 O reduction, resulting in the lowest net concentrations of N 2 O. Soils from agricultural rotations without cover crops had overall lower rates of denitrifier activity, leading to less net N 2 O production compared to soils from other land uses. In general, C-utilization patterns were similar among all soils, and C-substrate identity had a much stronger effect than land use. Here, we demonstrate that the chemical identity of available C gives rise to wide variability in rates of denitrification and N 2 O reduction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land use-land cover gradient demonstrates the importance of perennial grasslands with intact soils for building soil carbon in the fertile Mollisols of the North Central US

The impact of land use change and agricultural management on the cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) is not well understood, limiting our ability to manage for, and accurately model, soil carbon changes at both local and regional scales. To address this issue, here we combined long-term soil incubations with acid-hydrolysis and dry combustion to parse total SOC (C t ) into three operationally defined SOC pools (active, slow, and recalcitrant) from 9 long-term sites with varying land uses on current and former tallgrass prairie soil. Land uses represented a gradient of soil disturbance histories including remnant prairie, restored prairie, grazed pasture, annual crop rotations, and continuous maize. Dry combustion was used to estimate total carbon (C t , physical), while acid hydrolysis of both the active (C a ) and slow (C s ) pools was used to estimate a recalcitrant carbon pool (C r , chemical). Non-linear modeling of CO 2 efflux data from the long-term incubations was then used to estimate C a , and the decomposition rates of both C a and C s (k a and k r , biological). The size of the slow pools C s was then defined mathematically as C t- (C a + C r ). Remnant prairie had the highest C t , while cool-season pasture and a 35-y-old restored prairie had higher C t than the other agricultural systems. All agricultural systems, including pasture, had the highest fraction of C t as C r (~50%), whose mean residence time (MRT) in these soils is ≥500 years (Paul et al., 2001a) demonstrating that this fraction persists, while the more labile fractions were lost over the course of a few months (C a ) to a few decades (C s ) as a result of tillage-intensive agriculture. The two- to four-decade MRT time of C s indicated a pool likely to be more responsive to the 20 to 40 years of land-use practices used at some of the sites. The C s pool was largest in the remnant- and 35-y-old prairies indicating significant C accrual and stabilization compared to the agricultural ecosystems. Interestingly, the remnant prairie maintained the highest C a pool as well, demonstrating the strong connection between the quantity of fresh C inputs and the potential for long-term C stabilization and accrual. The accumulation of C in active (≈labile) pools as a first step toward long-term stabilization highlights the tenuous nature of early carbon gains, which can be quickly lost in response to climate change or poor management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Changes in wild pig ( Sus scrofa ) relative abundance, crop damage, and environmental impacts in response to control efforts

BACKGROUND: As the population and range of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) continue to grow across North America, there has been an increase in environmental and economic damages caused by this invasive species, and control efforts to reduce damages have increased concomitantly. Despite the expanding impacts and costs associated with population control of wild pigs, the extent to which wild pig control reduces populations and diminishes environmental and agricultural damages are rarely quantified. The goal of this study is to quantify changes in wild pig relative abundance and subsequent changes in damages caused by invasive wild pigs in response to control. RESULTS: Using a combination of wild pig population surveys, agricultural damage assessments, and environmental rooting surveys across 19 mixed forest-agricultural properties in South Carolina, USA, we quantified changes in wild pig relative abundance and associated damages over a 3-year period following implementation of a professional control program. Following implementation of control efforts, both the number of wild pig detections and estimated abundance decreased markedly. Within 24 months relative abundance was reduced by an average of ~70%, which resulted in a corresponding decline in environmental rooting damage by ~99%. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that sustained wild pig control efforts can substantially reduce wild pig relative abundance, which in turn resulted in a reduction in environmental rooting damage by wild pigs. Ultimately this study will help fill critical knowledge gaps regarding the efficacy of wild pig control programs and the effort needed to reduce impacts to native ecosystems, livestock, and crops. © 2023 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics and drivers of land use and land cover changes in Bangladesh

Abstract Bangladesh has undergone dramatic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) in recent years, but no quantitative analysis of LULCC drivers at the national scale exists so far. Here, we quantified the drivers of major LULCC in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic observations at the sub-district level. We used Landsat satellite data to interpret LULCC from 2000 to 2010 and employed a Global Surface Water Dataset to account for the influences of water seasonality. The results suggest that major LULCC in Bangladesh occur between agricultural land and waterbodies and between forest and shrubland. Exclusion of seasonal waterbodies can improve the accuracy of our LULCC results and driver analysis. Although the gross gain and loss of agricultural land are large on the local scale, the net change (gross gain minus gross loss) at a country scale is almost negligible. Climate dynamics and extreme events and changes in urban and rural households were driving the changes from forest to shrubland in the southeast region. The conversion from agricultural land to standing waterbodies in the southwest region was mainly driven by urban household dynamics, population growth, distance to cities and major roads, and precipitation dynamics. This study, which is the first effort accounting for water seasonality and quantifying biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of LULCC at the national scale, provides a perspective on overall LULCC and underlying drivers over a decadal time scale and national spatial scale and can serve as a scientific basis for developing land policies in Bangladesh.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the impacts of compound extremes on agriculture

Agricultural production and food prices are affected by hydroclimatic extremes. There has been a growing amount of literature measuring the impacts of individual extreme events (heat stress or water stress) on agricultural and human systems. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the significance and the magnitude of the impacts of compound extremes. This study combines a fine-scale weather product with outputs of a hydrological model to construct functional metrics of individual and compound hydroclimatic extremes for agriculture. Then, a yield response function is estimated with individual and compound metrics, focusing on corn in the United States during the 1981–2015 period. Supported by statistical evidence, the findings suggest that metrics of compound hydroclimatic extremes are better predictors of corn yield variations than metrics of individual extremes. The results also confirm that wet heat is more damaging than dry heat for corn. This study shows the average yield damage from heat stress has been up to four times more severe when combined with water stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Marginal Damage of Methane Emissions: Ozone Impacts on Agriculture

Methane directly contributes to air pollution, as an ozone precursor, and to climate change, generating physical and economic damages to different systems, namely agriculture, vegetation, energy, human health, or biodiversity. The methane-related damages to climate, measured as the Social Cost of Methane, and to human health have been analyzed by different studies and considered by government rulemaking in the last decades, but the ozone-related damages to crop revenues associated to methane emissions have not been incorporated to policy agenda. Using a combination of the Global Change Analysis Model and the TM5-FASST Scenario Screening Tool, we estimate that global marginal agricultural damages range from ~ 423 to 556 $2010/t-CH 4 , of which 98 $2010/t-CH 4 occur in the USA, which is the most affected region due to its role as a major crop producer, followed by China, EU-15, and India. These damages would represent 39–59% of the climate damages and 28–64% of the human health damages associated with methane emissions by previous studies. The marginal damages to crop revenues calculated in this study complement the damages from methane to climate and human health, and provides valuable information to be considered in future cost-benefits analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agrivoltaic Decision Tools for Perennial and Field Crop Farmers

This article describes a series of spreadsheet-based tools to help farmers estimate costs, revenues, and yields from agricultural production under different configurations of agrivoltaic installations for field and perennial crops. Crop-specific log books allow farmers to project changes in activity-level costs from the field due to agrivoltaic installations. The whole-farm tool helps farmers aggregate activity-level net returns up to the farm level to calculate projections of trade-offs between crop production with or without agrivoltaic installations. We present tools for lettuce and cranberries, but the tools are comprehensive and inclusive and so can be modified for other perennial and field crops.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗