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NASA NTRS2014

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗
NASA NTRS1980

On source radiation

The power output from given sources is usually ascertained via an energy flux integral over the normal directions to a remote (farfield) surface; an alternative procedure, which utilizes an integral that specifies the direct rate of working by the source on the resultant field, is described and illustrated for both point and continuous source distributions. A comparison between the respective procedures is made in the analysis of sound radiated from a periodic dipole source whose axis rotates in a plane, on a full or partial angular range, with prescribed frequency. Thus, adopting a conventional approach, Sretenskii (1956) characterizes the rotating dipole in terms of an infinite number of stationary ones along a pair of orthogonal directions in the plane and, through the farfield representation of the latter, arrives at a series development for the instantaneous radiated power, whereas the local manner of power calculation dispenses with the equivalent infinite aggregate of sources and yields a compact analytical result.

Levine, H.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Revisiting Nuclear Thermal Propulsion for Human Mars Exploration

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) has long been considered as a viable in-space transportation alternative for delivering crew and cargo to the Martian system. While technology development work in nuclear propulsion has continued over the year, general interest in NTP propulsion applications has historically been tied directly to the ebb and flow of interest in sending humans to explore Mars. As far back as the 1960’s, plans for NTP-based human Mars exploration have been proposed and periodically revisited having most recently been considered as part of NASA Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0. NASA has been investigating human Mars exploration strategies tied to its current Journey to Mars for the past few years however, NTP has only recently been added into the set of alternatives under consideration for in-space propulsion under the Mars Study Capability (MSC) team, formerly the Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) team. The original charter of the EMC was to find viable human Mars exploration approaches that relied heavily on technology investment work already underway, specifically related to the development of large Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems. The EMC team baselined several departures from traditional Mars exploration ground rules to enable these types of architectures. These ground rule changes included lower energy conjunction class trajectories with corresponding longer flight times, aggregation of mission elements in cis-Lunar space rather than Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and, in some cases, the pre-deployment of Earth return propulsion systems to Mars. As the MSC team continues to refine the in-space transportation trades, an NTP-based architecture that takes advantage of some of these ground rule departures is being introduced.

Percy, Thomas K.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing of Evapotranspiration over the Central Arizona Irrigation and Drainage District, USA

Knowledge of baseline water use for irrigated crops in the U.S. Southwest is important for understanding how much water is consumed under normal farm management and to help manage scarce resources. Remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET) is an effective way to gain that knowledge: multispectral data can provide synoptic and time-repetitive estimates of crop-specific water use, and could be especially useful for this arid region because of dominantly clear skies and minimal precipitation. Although multiple remote sensing ET approaches have been developed and tested, there is not consensus on which of them should be preferred because there are still few intercomparison studies within this environment. To help build the experience needed to gain consensus, a remote sensing study using three ET models was conducted over the Central Arizona Irrigation and Drainage District (CAIDD). Aggregated ET was assessed for 137 wheat plots (winter/spring crop), 183 cotton plots (summer crop), and 225 alfalfa plots (year-round). The employed models were the Satellite-Based Energy Balance for Mapping Evapotranspiration with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), the Two Source Energy Balance (TSEB), and Vegetation Index ET for the US Southwest (VISW). Remote sensing data were principally Landsat 5, supplemented by Landsat 7, MODIS Terra, MODIS Aqua, and ASTER. Using district-wide model averages, seasonal use (excluding surface evaporation) was 742 mm (millimeters) for wheat, 983 mm for cotton, and 1427 mm for alfalfa. All three models produced similar daily ET for wheat, with 6-8 mm per day mid-season. Model estimates diverged for cotton and alfalfa sites. Considering ET over cotton, TSEB estimates were 9.5 mm per day, METRIC 6 mm per day, and VISW 8 mm per day. For alfalfa, the ET values from TSEB were 8.0 mm per day, METRIC 5 mm per day, and VISW 6 mm per day. Lack of local validation information unfortunately made it impossible to rank model performance. However, by averaging results from all of them, ET model outliers could be identified. They ranged from minus 10 percent to plus 18 percent, values that represent expected ET modeling discrepancies. Relative to the model average, standardized ET-estimators - potential ET (ET (sub 0)), FAO-56 ET, and USDA-SW gravimetric-ET - showed still greater deviations, up to 35 percent of annual crop water use for summer and year-round crops, suggesting that remote sensing of actual ET could lead to significantly improved estimates of crop water use. Results from this study highlight the need for conducting multi-model experiments during summer-months over sites with independent ground validation.

Alfalfa↗
NASA NTRS1980

On source radiation

The power output from given sources is usually ascertained via an energy flux integral over the normal directions to a remote (far field) surface; an alternative procedure, which utilizes an integral that specifies the direct rate of working by the source on the resultant field, is described and illustrated for both point and continuous source distribution. A comparison between the respective procedures is made in the analysis of sound radiated from a periodic dipole source whose axis performs a periodic plane angular movement about a fixed direction. Thus, adopting a conventional approach, Sretenskii (1956) characterizes the rotating dipole in terms of an infinite number of stationary ones along a pari of orthogonal directions in the plane, and through the far field representation of the latter, arrives at a series development for the instantaneous radiated power, whereas the local manner of power calculation dispenses with the equivalent infinite aggregate of sources and yields a compact analytical result.

Levine, H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Air Mobility Airspace Dynamic Density

Effective flight planning requires information about a variety of potential threats, such as adverse weather or airspace restrictions, and about alternatives available if unforeseen events occur. Expected traffic along the route of flight is also essential to a safe outcome so that, for example, adequate fuel/energy supply can be loaded prior to flight. A dynamic density (DD) metric is introduced for the emerging urban air mobility (UAM) concept to predict airspace congestion that may lead to loss of separation between aircraft or less efficient operations. Using inspiration from dynamic density metric research for traditional air traffic management and a two-way highway analogy, we develop a dynamic density metric for a portion of airspace (aUAM corridor) that aggregates the impact from five factors: aircraft density, density of populous clusters, mean number of aircraft in populous clusters, mean distance between aircraft, and minimum distance between aircraft. This works describes our methodology, rationale, use cases, and visualization techniques to efficiently present the DD metric to an operator for informed decision making. We also present an approach for validating the metric. However, validation remains part of future work.

UAM↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multicomponent Gas Diffusion and an Appropriate Momentum Boundary Condition

Multicomponent gas diffusion is reviewed with particular emphasis on gas flows near solid boundaries-the so-called Kramers-Kistemaker effect. The aim is to derive an appropriate momentum boundary condition which governs many gaseous species diffusing together. The many species' generalization of the traditional single gas condition, either as slip or stick (no-slip), is not obvious, particularly for technologically important cases of lower gas pressures and very dissimilar molecular weight gases. No convincing theoretical case exists for why two gases should interact with solid boundaries equally but in opposite flow directions, such that the total gas flow exactly vanishes. ln this way, the multicomponent no-slip boundary requires careful treatment The approaches discussed here generally adopt a microscopic model for gas-solid contact. The method has the advantage that the mathematics remain tractable and hence experimentally testable. Two new proposals are put forward, the first building in some molecular collision physics, the second drawing on a detailed view of surface diffusion which does not unphysically extrapolate bulk gas properties to govern the adsorbed molecules. The outcome is a better accounting of previously anomalous experiments. Models predict novel slip conditions appearing even for the case of equal molecular weight components. These approaches become particularly significant in view of a conceptual contradiction found to arise in previous derivations of the appropriate boundary conditions. The analogous case of three gases, one of which is uniformly distributed and hence non-diffusing, presents a further refinement which gives unexpected flow reversals near solid boundaries. This case is investigated alone and for aggregating gas species near their condensation point. In addition to predicting new physics, this investigation carries practical implications for controlling vapor diffusion in the growth of crystals used in medical diagnosis (e.g. mercuric iodide) and semiconductors.

Noever, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Multi-Disciplinary, Multi-Fidelity Discrete Data Transfer Using Degenerate Geometry Forms

In a typical multi-fidelity design process, different levels of geometric abstraction are used for different analysis methods, and transitioning from one phase of design to the next often requires a complete re-creation of the geometry. To maintain consistency between lower-order and higher-order analysis results, Vehicle Sketch Pad (OpenVSP) recently introduced the ability to generate and export several degenerate forms of the geometry, representing the type of abstraction required to perform low- to medium-order analysis for a range of aeronautical disciplines. In this research, the functionality of these degenerate models was extended, so that in addition to serving as repositories for the geometric information that is required as input to an analysis, the degenerate models can also store the results of that analysis mapped back onto the geometric nodes. At the same time, the results are also mapped indirectly onto the nodes of lower-order degenerate models using a process called aggregation, and onto higher-order models using a process called disaggregation. The mapped analysis results are available for use by any subsequent analysis in an integrated design and analysis process. A simple multi-fidelity analysis process for a single-aisle subsonic transport aircraft is used as an example case to demonstrate the value of the approach.

Olson, Erik D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Effect of Surface Induced Flows on Bubble and Particle Aggregation

Almost 20 years have elapsed since a phenomenon called "radial specific coalescence" was identified. During studies of electrolytic oxygen evolution from the back side of a vertically oriented, transparent tin oxide electrode in alkaline electrolyte, one of the authors (Sides) observed that large "collector" bubbles appeared to attract smaller bubbles. The bubbles moved parallel to the surface of the electrode, while the electric field was normal to the electrode surface. The phenomenon was reported but not explained. More recently self ordering of latex particles was observed during electrophoretic deposition at low DC voltages likewise on a transparent tin oxide electrode. As in the bubble work, the field was normal to the electrode while the particles moved parallel to it. Fluid convection caused by surface induced flows (SIF) can explain these two apparently different experimental observations: the aggregation of particles on an electrode during electrophoretic deposition, and a radial bubble coalescence pattern on an electrode during electrolytic gas evolution. An externally imposed driving force (the gradient of electrical potential or temperature), interacting with the surface of particles or bubbles very near a planar conducting surface, drives the convection of fluid that causes particles and bubbles to approach each other on the electrode.

Guelcher, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

AMO EXPRESS: A Command and Control Experiment for Crew Autonomy Onboard the International Space Station

NASA is investigating a range of future human spaceflight missions, including both Mars-distance and Near Earth Object (NEO) targets. Of significant importance for these missions is the balance between crew autonomy and vehicle automation. As distance from Earth results in increasing communication delays, future crews need both the capability and authority to independently make decisions. However, small crews cannot take on all functions performed by ground today, and so vehicles must be more automated to reduce the crew workload for such missions. NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Program funded Autonomous Mission Operations (AMO) project conducted an autonomous command and control experiment on-board the International Space Station that demonstrated single action intelligent procedures for crew command and control. The target problem was to enable crew initialization of a facility class rack with power and thermal interfaces, and involving core and payload command and telemetry processing, without support from ground controllers. This autonomous operations capability is enabling in scenarios such as initialization of a medical facility to respond to a crew medical emergency, and representative of other spacecraft autonomy challenges. The experiment was conducted using the Expedite the Processing of Experiments for Space Station (EXPRESS) rack 7, which was located in the Port 2 location within the U.S Laboratory onboard the International Space Station (ISS). Activation and deactivation of this facility is time consuming and operationally intensive, requiring coordination of three flight control positions, 47 nominal steps, 57 commands, 276 telemetry checks, and coordination of multiple ISS systems (both core and payload). Utilization of Draper Laboratory's Timeliner software, deployed on-board the ISS within the Command and Control (C&C) computers and the Payload computers, allowed development of the automated procedures specific to ISS without having to certify and employ novel software for procedure development and execution. The procedures contained the ground procedure logic and actions as possible to include fault detection and recovery capabilities. The autonomous operations concept includes a reduction of the amount of data a crew operator is required to verify during activation or de-activation, as well as integration of procedure execution status and relevant data in a single integrated display. During execution, the auto-procedures (via Timerliner) provide a step-by-step messaging paradigm and a high-level status upon termination. This messaging and high-level status is the only data generated for operator display. To enhance situational awareness of the operator, the Web-based Procedure Display (WebPD) provides a novel approach to the issues of procedure display and execution tracking. WebPD is a web based application that serves as the user interface for electronic procedure execution. It incorporates several aspects of the HTML5 standard. Procedures are written in a dialect of XML called Procedure Representation Language (PRL). WebPD tracks execution status in the procedure or procedures being displayed. WebPD aggregates and simplifies the auto-sequence execution status information, and formatted to be easily followed and understood by an operator who is not dedicated to actively monitoring the task. WebPD also provides an integrated data and control interface to pause or halt the execution in order to provide a check point of operation and to examine progress before starting the next sequence of activities. For this demonstration, the procedure was initiated and monitored from the ground. As the Timeliner sequences executed, their high-level execution status was written to PLMDM memory. This memory is read and downlinked via Ku-Band at a 1 Hz rate. The data containing the high-level execution status is de-commutated on the ground, and rebroadcast for WebPD consumption. A future demonstration will be performed onboard, with ISS astronauts initiating the operations instead of ground controllers. The AMO EXPRESS experiment demonstrated activation and de-activation of EXPRESS rack 7, providing the capability of future single button activations and deactivations of facility class racks. The experiment achieved numerous technical and operations 'firsts' for the ISS

Stetson, Howard K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Correction Methods for NASA GeneLab Transcriptomic Datasets

Conducting space biology experiments aboard the International Space Station, particularly those utilizing complex model organisms like mice, is expensive and difficult due to limited crew availability, hardware, and space. As a result, sample numbers from these studies are low, reducing the statistical power of any one experiment. Aggregating spaceflight datasets serves as a method to increase sample numbers, allowing for novel insights through bioinformatic analysis of ‘omics data from merged datasets. However, aggregating datasets can introduce unwanted variation including 1) differences in sample handling, processing, and sequencing platforms between datasets (technical variation) as well as 2) differences in experimental design between datasets. In the present study, NASA GeneLab-hosted RNAseq datasets from mouse liver tissues were used to evaluate several statistical methods to correct for this unwanted variation through two approaches, reference-based and standard. The following correction algorithms were applied with (reference-based) and/or without (standard) considering Universal Mouse RNA Reference samples: ComBat and ComBat_seq from the SVA package, median polish, empirical Bayes, and ANOVA-based algorithms from the MBatch package, and negative binomial regression normalization in the DESeq2 package. For each approach, after the correction algorithm was applied, differential gene expression (DGE) analysis of flight and ground control samples was performed with the combined data. The robustness of each tool was evaluated using BatchQC to determine statistical differences between datasets before and after correction, Principal Component Analysis to evaluate global gene expression in samples before and after correction, and by comparing DGE analysis of individual datasets and combined datasets before and after correction. The results showed that the reference-based approach introduced several additional (and likely artificial) DEGs when compared with the respective standard approach. Of the methods tested, standard ComBat and DESeq2 were identified as the most robust correction methods for combining spaceflight mouse liver RNAseq datasets hosted on GeneLab.

GeneLab↗
NASA NTRS2007

Feasibility of Turing-Style Tests for Autonomous Aerial Vehicle "Intelligence"

A new approach is suggested to define and evaluate key metrics as to autonomous aerial vehicle performance. This approach entails the conceptual definition of a "Turing Test" for UAVs. Such a "UAV Turing test" would be conducted by means of mission simulations and/or tailored flight demonstrations of vehicles under the guidance of their autonomous system software. These autonomous vehicle mission simulations and flight demonstrations would also have to be benchmarked against missions "flown" with pilots/human-operators in the loop. In turn, scoring criteria for such testing could be based upon both quantitative mission success metrics (unique to each mission) and by turning to analog "handling quality" metrics similar to the well-known Cooper-Harper pilot ratings used for manned aircraft. Autonomous aerial vehicles would be considered to have successfully passed this "UAV Turing Test" if the aggregate mission success metrics and handling qualities for the autonomous aerial vehicle matched or exceeded the equivalent metrics for missions conducted with pilots/human-operators in the loop. Alternatively, an independent, knowledgeable observer could provide the "UAV Turing Test" ratings of whether a vehicle is autonomous or "piloted." This observer ideally would, in the more sophisticated mission simulations, also have the enhanced capability of being able to override the scripted mission scenario and instigate failure modes and change of flight profile/plans. If a majority of mission tasks are rated as "piloted" by the observer, when in reality the vehicle/simulation is fully- or semi- autonomously controlled, then the vehicle/simulation "passes" the "UAV Turing Test." In this regards, this second "UAV Turing Test" approach is more consistent with Turing s original "imitation game" proposal. The overall feasibility, and important considerations and limitations, of such an approach for judging/evaluating autonomous aerial vehicle "intelligence" will be discussed from a theoretical perspective.

Young, Larry A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Strategies and Technologies for In Situ Mineralogical Investigations on Mars

Surface landers on Mars (Viking and Pathfinder) have not revealed satisfying answers to the mineralogy and lithology of the planet's surface. In part, this results from their prime directives: Viking focused on exobiology, Pathfinder focused on technology demonstration. The analytical instruments on board the landers made admirable attempts to extract the mineralogy and geology of Mars, as did countless modeling efforts after the missions. Here we suggest a framework for elucidating martian, or any other planetary geology, through an approach that defines (a) type of information required, (b) explorational strategy harmonious with acquisition of these data, (c) interpretation approach to the data, (d) compatible mission architecture, (e) instrumentation for interrogating rocks and soil. (a) Data required: The composition of a planet is ordered at scales ranging from molecules to minerals to rocks, and from geological units to provinces to planetary-scale systems. The largest ordering that in situ compositional instruments can attempt to interrogate is rock type "aggregate" information. This is what the geologist attempts to identify first. From this, mineralogy can be either directly seen or inferred. From mineralogy can be determined elemental abundances and perhaps the state of the compounds as being crystalline or amorphous. Knowledge of rock type and mineralogy is critical for elucidating geologic process. Mars landers acquired extremely valuable elemental data, but attempted to move from elements to aggregates, but this can only be done by making many assumptions and sometimes giant leaps of faith. Data we believe essential are elements, minerals, degree of ordering of compounds, and the aggregate or rock type that these materials compose. (b) Explorational strategy: A lander should function as a surrogate geologist. Of the total landscape, a geologist sees much, but gives detailed attention to an infinitesimally small amount of what is seen. To acquire samples worth detailed scrutiny, as many samples as possible need examining at a cursory or reconnaissance level. A representative, statistically-meaningful sample number cannot be overemphasized. This maxim still applies to geological exploration of our own planet of which we have abundant knowledge. Analysis of many samples mandates low-power consumption per sample. (c) Data interpretation: No single instrument can analyze the full spectrum of the x-axis. An instrument is optimized for detecting certain material characteristics and must therefore affix itself to some point on the x-axis. Any conclusions drawn about data to the left or right of the instrument's position on this axis must necessarily be derived by inference. Hence, it seems logical to include on a mission, instruments that are not closely spaced in their x-axis-position, and if only two analytical methods are used, as shown, they should start at opposite ends of the axis and work towards the center. As examples, we depict a high-resolution camera to evaluate rock type ("aggregate" state) and mineralogy, and an x-ray diffractometer-fluorescence spectrometer (XRD-XRF) to determine elements, minerals, and the degree of order of materials. (d) Mission architecture: No instrument or suite of instruments can be relied upon to always give truly unequivocal analyses. The suite of instruments should therefore permit conclusions of one instrument to be checked against those of another through closed analytical loops. These "loops" can be structured by a combination of orbital imagery, descent imagery, broad-band site viewing/analysis, and data that cover both x and y axes. For example, the detection of a basaltic-looking rock with a microscope should be checked against the elements detected, the appearance of the rock as a lava flow from descent imagery, and so forth. (e) Instrumentation: To satisfy the above criteria, it is necessary to: (i) See the rock or soil with high resolution + magnification, (ii) Examine many samples, (iii) Consume little power per analysis, (iv) Determine elemental species, (v) Determine mineralogy directly (not inferentially) and the degree of ordering of compounds, (vi) Start analyzing from both ends of the x-axis. Every geologist wants to see the hand sample first, and apply a hand lens to its surface. This has not been the starting point for missions to Mars. Thus, our technology satisfies all these criteria . This XRD-XRF-Optical instrument currently being developed, analyses rock or soil surfaces without the need for sample acquisition or preparation; this satisfies the power criterion, and enables many analyses. The device acquires direct mineralogy and determines elemental species. The embedded endoscopic camera satisfies the critical criterion of close inspection of samples; the fiber optic cable can also be used for IR, LTV, or laser sample analysis. Additional information is contained in the original (Figures).

Marshall, J. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combining RNA-SEQ Datasets from NASA GENELAB: An Evaluation of Correction Methods

Background: Conducting space biology experiments aboard the International Space Station, particularly those utilizing complex model organisms like mice, is expensive and difficult due to limited crew availability, hardware, and space. As a result, sample numbers from these studies are low, reducing the statistical power of any one experiment. Aggregating spaceflight datasets serves as a method to increase sample numbers, allowing for novel insights through bioinformatic analysis of ‘omics data from merged datasets. However, aggregating datasets can introduce unwanted variation including 1) differences in sample handling, processing, and sequencing platforms between datasets (technical variation) as well as 2) differences in experimental design between datasets. Methods: In the present study, NASA GeneLab-hosted RNAseq datasets from mouse liver tissues were used to evaluate several statistical methods to correct for this unwanted variation through two approaches, reference-based and standard. The following correction algorithms were applied with (reference-based) and/or without (standard) considering Universal Mouse RNA Reference samples: ComBat and ComBat_seq from the SVA package, the median polish, empirical Bayes, and ANOVA-based algorithms from the MBatch package, and negative binomial regression normalization in the DESeq2 package. For each approach, after the correction algorithm was applied, differential gene expression (DGE) analysis of flight and ground control samples was performed with the combined data. The robustness of each tool was evaluated using BatchQC to determine statistical differences between datasets before and after correction, Principal Component Analysis to evaluate global gene expression in samples before and after correction, and by comparing DGE analysis of individual datasets and combined datasets before and after correction. Results: The results showed that the reference-based approach introduced several additional (and likely artificial) differentially expressed genes when compared with the respective standard approach. Conclusions: Of the methods tested, standard ComBat_seq and DESeq2 were identified as the most robust correction methods for combining spaceflight mouse liver RNAseq datasets hosted on GeneLab.

Finsam Samson↗
NASA NTRS2020

Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-change Risk Assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.

burning embers diagram↗
NASA NTRS1993

Use of microgravity bioreactors for development of an in vitro rat salivary gland cell culture model

During development, salivary gland (SG) cells both secrete factors which modulate cellular behavior and express specific hormone receptors. Whether SG cell growth is modulated by an autocrine epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor-mediated signal transduction pathway is not clearly understood. SG tissue is the synthesis site for functionally distinct products including growth factors, digestive enzymes, and homeostasis maintaining factors. Historically, SG cells have proven difficult to grow and may be only maintained as limited three-dimensional ductal-type structures in collagen gels or on reconstituted basement membrane gels. A novel approach to establishing primary rat SG cultures is use of microgravity bioreactors originally designed by NASA as low-shear culture systems for predicting cell growth and differentiation in the microgravity environment of space. These completely fluid-filled bioreactors, which are oriented horizontally and rotate, have proven advantageous for Earth-based culture of three-dimensional cell assemblies, tissue-like aggregates, and glandular structures. Use of microgravity bioreactors for establishing in vitro models to investigate steroid-mediated secretion of EGF by normal SG cells may also prove useful for the investigation of cancer and other salivary gland disorders. These microgravity bioreactors promise challenging opportunities for future applications in basic and applied cell research.

NASA Program Space Biology↗
NASA NTRS1992

Black Carbon (Soot) Aerosol in the Lower Stratosphere and Upper Troposphere

We have used two approaches to measure BCA in the stratosphere. The first method consists of collecting aerosols by impaction on quartz rods, upon which are mounted strips of polystyrene filter material. Each 25 mm by 0.5 mm filter strip is alternately masked and exposed in 5 mm long sections. After sampling, the optical density of the exposed sections is measured and compared with the optical density of the masked (unexposed) sections. The filter strip is a Lambertian collector, the scattering property of which is not affected by the deposition of liquid sulfuric acid droplets which dominate the stratospheric aerosol. Hence, all attenuation greater in the exposed than in the non-exposed sections is due to absorption by BCA or rare opaque materials such as meteoritic iron. In a second approach we expose carbon-coated gold or palladium wires to air outside the aircraft boundary layer [Farlow et al., 1979; Pueschel et al., 1989]. With a field emission scanning electron microscope we are able to characterize BCA particles in addition to the dominant sulfuric acid droplets. Typically, soot is comprised of 20 nm diameter spheres linked together as branching chains or loosely packed aggregates (Figure 1a). The microscope has a lateral image resolution of 1.5 nm and can clearly resolve individual spheres making up BCA aggregates. Their morphology is uniquely different from that of the liquid sulfuric acid-water aerosol (Figure 1b). We approximate the size of each BCA particle by that of a sphere of equivalent volume and fit a lognormal size distribution to both the BCA and H2SO4/H2O aerosols. Both sampler types have been mounted on NASA's ER-2 high-altitude research aircraft (altitude ceiling of 70,000 feet), and on NASA's DC-8 (40,000 feet ceiling) aircraft to sample aerosols from a significant portion of the atmosphere.

Pueschel, R. F.↗