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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Complexity Science Applications to Dynamic Trajectory Management: Research Strategies

The promise of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is strongly tied to the concept of trajectory-based operations in the national airspace system. Existing efforts to develop trajectory management concepts are largely focused on individual trajectories, optimized independently, then de-conflicted among each other, and individually re-optimized, as possible. The benefits in capacity, fuel, and time are valuable, though perhaps could be greater through alternative strategies. The concept of agent-based trajectories offers a strategy for automation of simultaneous multiple trajectory management. The anticipated result of the strategy would be dynamic management of multiple trajectories with interacting and interdependent outcomes that satisfy multiple, conflicting constraints. These constraints would include the business case for operators, the capacity case for the Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP), and the environmental case for noise and emissions. The benefits in capacity, fuel, and time might be improved over those possible under individual trajectory management approaches. The proposed approach relies on computational agent-based modeling (ABM), combinatorial mathematics, as well as application of "traffic physics" concepts to the challenge, and modeling and simulation capabilities. The proposed strategy could support transforming air traffic control from managing individual aircraft behaviors to managing systemic behavior of air traffic in the NAS. A system built on the approach could provide the ability to know when regions of airspace approach being "full," that is, having non-viable local solution space for optimizing trajectories in advance.

Sawhill, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Umbra Simulation and Integration Framework Applied to Emergency Response Training

The Mine Emergency Response Interactive Training Simulation (MERITS) is intended to prepare personnel to manage an emergency in an underground coal mine. The creation of an effective training environment required realistic emergent behavior in response to simulation events and trainee interventions, exploratory modification of miner behavior rules, realistic physics, and incorporation of legacy code. It also required the ability to add rich media to the simulation without conflicting with normal desktop security settings. Our Umbra Simulation and Integration Framework facilitated agent-based modeling of miners and rescuers and made it possible to work with subject matter experts to quickly adjust behavior through script editing, rather than through lengthy programming and recompilation. Integration of Umbra code with the WebKit browser engine allowed the use of JavaScript-enabled local web pages for media support. This project greatly extended the capabilities of Umbra in support of training simulations and has implications for simulations that combine human behavior, physics, and rich media.

Hamilton, Paul Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reducing Traffic Congestions by Introducing CACC-Vehicles on a Multi-Lane Highway Using Agent-Based Approach

Traffic congestion is an ongoing problem of great interest to researchers from different areas in academia. With the emerging technology for inter-vehicle communication, vehicles have the ability to exchange information with predecessors by wireless communication. In this paper, we present an agent-based model of traffic congestion and examine the impact of having CACC (Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control) embedded vehicle(s) on a highway system consisting of 4 traffic lanes without overtaking. In our model, CACC vehicles adapt their acceleration/deceleration according to vehicle-to-vehicle inter-communication. We analyze the average speed of the cars, the shockwaves, and the evolution of traffic congestion throughout the lifecycle of the model. The study identifies how CACC vehicles affect the dynamics of traffic flow on a complex network and reduce the oscillatory behavior (stop and go) resulting from the acceleration/deceleration of the vehicles.

Arnaout, Georges M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Kumar, Vivek↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerial Vehicle Routing and Scheduling for UAS Traffic Management: A Hybrid Monte Carlo Tree Search Approach

We present the Multi-Route Weighted Package Delivery Problem (MRWPDP) and a scalable solution methodology as a major step towards enabling an airspace deconfliction service for drone delivery operations. The problem is motivated by Strategic deconfliction under the FAA’s “Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management” Concept of Operations. MRWPDP falls under a class of vehicle routing and scheduling problems, and as such is NP-Hard. In MRWPDP, a graph network is given which consists of depots, drop-off sites, and multiple routes connecting the two. In addition, routes are weighted by the associated ground risk and total travel distance for package delivery. The goal is to optimally schedule the departure time and assign routes to a known set of vehicles at the depot. We propose a heuristic solution to the problem by borrowing techniques from Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), Constraint Programming, and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). The resulting hybrid framework is MCTS with Bound-and-Prune (BP) and rapid simulated updates (U), or MCTS-BP-U. This approach is able to quickly provide a feasible solution for MRWPDP, even for large problem instances up to 1000 vehicles. We provide a MILP formulation of MRWPDP and compare its performance against MCTS-BP-U in terms of solution quality. An agent-based model simulation is conducted as a final step to validate the efficacy of our approach.

air traffic scheduling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerial Vehicle Routing and Scheduling for UAS Traffic Management: A Hybrid Monte Carlo Tree Search Approach

We present the Multi-Route Weighted Package Delivery Problem (MRWPDP) and a scalable solution methodology as a major step towards enabling an airspace deconfliction service for drone delivery operations. The problem is motivated by Strategic deconfliction under the FAA’s “Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management” Concept of Operations. MRWPDP falls under a class of vehicle routing and scheduling problems, and as such is NP-Hard. In MRWPDP, a graph network is given which consists of depots, drop-off sites, and multiple routes connecting the two. In addition, routes are weighted by the associated ground risk and total travel distance for package delivery. The goal is to optimally schedule the departure time and assign routes to a known set of vehicles at the depot. We propose a heuristic solution to the problem by borrowing techniques from Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), Constraint Programming, and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). The resulting hybrid framework is MCTS with Bound-and-Prune (BP) and rapid simulated updates (U), or MCTS-BP-U. This approach is able to quickly provide a feasible solution for MRWPDP, even for large problem instances up to 1000 vehicles. We provide a MILP formulation of MRWPDP and compare its performance against MCTS-BP-U in terms of solution quality. An agent-based model simulation is conducted as a final step to validate the efficacy of our approach.

air traffic scheduling↗
DOE OSTI2026

BEAM CORE: A Flexible Ecosystem for Freight, Demographics, and Vehicle Analysis

The Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility Comprehensive Regional Evaluator (BEAM CORE) is an open-source, modular ecosystem of highly refined, agent-based modeling tools developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Laboratory of the Rockies. Organizations such as metropolitan planning organizations, agencies, and companies can use BEAM CORE to analyze freight movement and optimize logistics solutions, assess the impacts of emerging freight technologies or e-commerce trends, model dynamic population growth and evolution, and understand the drivers and impacts of electric vehicle adoption across households in a given region. Users can choose from a flexible suite of modeling modules according to their needs and priorities. The modules integrate with travel demand models to support enhanced analysis of diverse scenarios involving freight movement, vehicle technologies, and other key factors relevant to regional planning.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Calibration of Supplier Selection Problem in Freight Agent-Based Simulations

Freight transportation modeling often struggles with data limitations, especially in accurately representing complex supplier selection processes and their impact on network flows. This research addresses this critical gap by developing a large-scale, calibrated agent-based model for supplier selection, complemented by a probabilistic heuristic for international shipments. Our approach integrates trade relationships between industry sectors, transportation costs, and a supplier-rating model adapted from existing literature. The model’s core objective is to minimize the discrepancy between modeled and observed commodity flows while ensuring a close match to regional shipping distance distributions. Implemented and tested across four major U.S. metropolitan areas—Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas–Fort Worth, and Los Angeles—the model demonstrates high fidelity in replicating observed freight patterns. Key findings reveal consistent alignment with national shipping distance trends and highlight significant spatial variations in commodity trade assignments and demand across the study regions. This behaviorally informed and transport-sensitive framework is designed to approximate real-world decision making, providing a robust tool for policymakers and planners to evaluate targeted interventions, assess infrastructure investments, and enhance supply chain resilience in the face of disruptions.

Ismael, Abdelrahman (ORCID:0000000303712110)↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Highly Integrated Vehicle Ecosystem (HIVE): A Platform for Managing the Operations of On-Demand Vehicle Fleets

This paper introduces the Highly Integrated Vehicle Ecosystem (HIVE), a transportation modeling tool developed by within the Center for Integrated Mobility Sciences (CIMS) group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). HIVE is an agent-based supply/demand model for Mobility on Demand (MoD) which mixes agent-based modeling and centralized dispatch for automated and human-driven fleets and ride hail passengers. Research questions using HIVE span multiple categories, including intelligent fleet planning (assessing fleet, battery, and infrastructure investment decisions), intelligent fleet control (charge management, vehicle dispatching) and strategic business model decision-making (depot-based full-time drivers versus gig-based drivers, human-driven versus automated). The components of the HIVE model are explained and then HIVE is demonstrated in a case study using demand data from the New York City Taxi & Limousine Commission data set.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model

Abstract A combination of accelerated population growth and severe droughts has created pressure on food security and driven the development of irrigation schemes across sub‐Saharan Africa. Irrigation has been associated with increased malaria risk, but risk prediction remains difficult due to the heterogeneity of irrigation and the environment. While investigating transmission dynamics is helpful, malaria models cannot be applied directly in irrigated regions as they typically rely only on rainfall as a source of water to quantify larval habitats. By coupling a hydrologic model with an agent‐based malaria model for a sugarcane plantation site in Arjo, Ethiopia, we demonstrated how incorporating hydrologic processes to estimate larval habitats can affect malaria transmission. Using the coupled model, we then examined the impact of an existing irrigation scheme on malaria transmission dynamics. The inclusion of hydrologic processes increased the variability of larval habitat area by around two‐fold and resulted in reduction in malaria transmission by 60%. In addition, irrigation increased all habitat types in the dry season by up to 7.4 times. It converted temporary and semi‐permanent habitats to permanent habitats during the rainy season, which grew by about 24%. Consequently, malaria transmission was sustained all‐year round and intensified during the main transmission season, with the peak shifted forward by around 1 month. Lastly, we evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of adult vectors under the effect of irrigation by resolving habitat heterogeneity. These findings could help larval source management by identifying transmission hotspots and prioritizing resources for malaria elimination planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparing Delay-, Distance-, and Cordon-Based Congestion Pricing Strategies Via Large-Scale Simulation

This study compares the impacts of delay-, distance-, and cordon-based congestion pricing strategies for Austin, Texas, using the POLARIS agent-based activity-based travel demand simulation model. This approach enables agent-level heterogeneity and realistic choice options (including destination, mode, and activity scheduling) for dynamic traffic assignment and congestion feedbacks across a major metro region, which are features lacking in past work. To ensure comparability, distance-based tolls were set to generate the same revenue as delay-based tolling of $3.5 M/day, averaging $1.17/resident/day or $0.42/vehicle-trip. Delay-based pricing delivers 44% lower network delay and 13% lower VHT compared to the no-toll baseline, levels unmatched by other pricing strategies. At the height of the AM peak, drivers pay up to $0.13/mile on average, though most links in the network remain untolled. Distance-based pricing is the most effective at reducing VMT (by 4%), but VHT reductions (of 6%) primarily stem from drivers selecting closer destinations, achieving only one-fourth the delay reduction of delay-based pricing. Across various implementations of delay- and distance-based pricing, the results suggest that spatial variations of tolls are far more important than temporal variations. Cordon tolls produce minimal impacts at the network-wide level, but offer substantial delay reductions inside the cordon. Other major findings include: 1) delay-based pricing increases trip-making during the PM peak period due to backward shifts in discretionary-activity start times by higher-income residents; and 2) tolls’ spatial impacts, including changes in network flows and tolls paid by residents, vary substantially between delay- and distance-based pricing strategies.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

EMIS Agent Simulation Model (Electricity Markets Investment Suite) [SWR-19-56]

The Electricity Markets Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model is an agent-based model developed at NREL for simulating annual investment and retirement decisions of heterogeneous investors in the electricity sector. EMIS-AS is designed to capture the evolution of the electricity generation portfolio resulting from the interactions of heterogeneous investors under different policy and market designs. EMIS-AS not only allows end-users to customize market products and rules, but also to capture investors' heterogeneous financing parameters, technology preferences, beliefs about the future (forecasts), ability to update those forecasts, and risk preferences under uncertainty.

Anwar, Mahammad Bashar↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parking Strategies and Outcomes for Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Operations

Parking spots are a premium commodity, especially in dense downtown settings, so this study examines the service impacts of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) parking in legal on- or off-street locations when idle across Travis County in Austin, Texas. Here, using an agent-based activity-based travel demand model with dynamic traffic simulation, two restricted-parking strategies for SAVs were simulated. SAVs either found the nearest available parking spot or the lowest-cost spot (via a tradeoff of parking fees and distance-based costs). Two comparisons were conducted to analyze the impacts of these strategies. First, two restricted parking strategies were compared, where SAVs park without competition with private human-driven vehicles (HVs) for parking locations. Second, a more realistic analysis compared two SAV parking strategies with a scenario where SAVs remain idle in place. Private HVs in all scenarios and strategies of this comparison park at the closest designated location unless they opt for private parking. Using a supply of 8,400 aggregated parking locations in Austin, this study simulated fleet performance under different trip demands, with SAV fares of $\$0.62$ per kilometer ($\$1$ per mile) plus a $\$1$ fixed pickup fee with dynamic ridesharing permitted. Parking costs were negligible in both SAV parking search strategies applied to the Austin network because of the region’s provision of mostly free parking. Requiring SAVs to park on designated on- and off-street parking locations and parking lots (restricted parking) also increased parking costs for HV drivers by up to 22% since SAVs occupied some free parking spaces, especially in the least-cost parking search strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Petri Nets as Modeling Tool for Emergent Agents

Emergent agents, those agents whose local interactions can cause unexpected global results, require a method of modeling that is both dynamic and structured Petri Nets, a modeling tool developed for dynamic discrete event system of mainly functional agents, provide this, and have the benefit of being an established tool. We present here the details of the modeling method here and discuss how to implement its use for modeling agent-based systems. Petri Nets have been used extensively in the modeling of functional agents, those agents who have defined purposes and whose actions should result in a know outcome. However, emergent agents, those agents who have a defined structure but whose interaction causes outcomes that are unpredictable, have not yet found a modeling style that suits them. A problem with formally modeling emergent agents that any formal modeling style usually expects to show the results of a problem and the results of problems studied using emergent agents are not apparent from the initial construction. However, the study of emergent agents still requires a method to analyze the agents themselves, and have sensible conversation about the differences and similarities between types of emergent agents. We attempt to correct this problem by applying Petri Nets to the characterization of emergent agents. In doing so, the emergent properties of these agents can be highlighted, and conversation about the nature and compatibility of the differing methods of agent creation can begin.

Bergman, Marto↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring impacts of electricity tariff on charging infrastructure planning: An activity-based approach

In the past decade, electric vehicles (EVs) have gained popularity for their efficiency and environmental benefits. Advances in battery technology and charging equipment have yielded long-range EVs and fast-charging. However, many major cities lack adequate charging infrastructure for daily EV use. This study addresses this gap by integrating activity-based modeling, charging behavior simulation, and charging infrastructure optimization. The research utilizes the POLARIS agent-based transportation model to accurately capture user activities, trip patterns, and traffic flows. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of fixed and spatiotemporal electricity rate distributions on optimal charging infrastructure deployment. The framework is applied to the Chicago regional area network and analyzed under various EV ownership scenarios. Further, the results reveal significant impacts of the charging pricing strategy on user decision-making and charging demand distribution. There is also a need for consistent pricing policies in charging infrastructure planning and operational phases to avoid drops in service quality.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Zooming in on virtual commutes: Telecommuting impacts on mobility and sustainability

Motivated by a societal shift towards remote work and rapid advancement in information and communication technologies, this study examines the impact of telecommuting on urban mobility across the nine counties of the San Francisco Bay Area, California. Utilizing a behaviorally realistic integrated agent-based transportation model and recent data on telecommuting patterns, we simulate the impact of multiple telecommuting scenarios on transportation system outcomes. This provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of remote work on travel costs and accessibility of all travelers, factoring in changes in mode use and congestion. We analyze how telecommuting influences broader societal factors such as transportation energy consumption. Our findings indicate that increased telecommuting reduces overall person miles traveled and transportation energy consumption. Furthermore, telecommuting results in externality benefits by improving accessibility and reducing commute times for non-telecommuters.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Water-Power System Resilience Analysis in a Southeastern Idaho Irrigation District: Minidoka Case Study

This study investigates the joint water–power system resilience of an irrigation district in southeastern Idaho. Irrigation districts face difficulties in the delivery of water to farmers under drought conditions, during equipment failures, or unplanned infrastructure disruptions. The resilience of interconnected water and power systems can be better analyzed and understood through an integrated approach, using a model that connects the dependencies between the two halves of the system. Using a multi-agent system model capturing both water and power system components, as well as their linkages, we capture the interdependencies of these systems and highlight opportunities for improvement when faced with disruptions. Through simulation scenarios, we examine the system resilience using system performance, quantified as the percentage of met demand of the power and water system, when subjected to drought water year, an unforeseen water demand increase, power outage and dam failure. Scenario results indicate that the effects of low flow years are mostly felt in the power system; unexpected increases in water demand marginally impact irrigation system performance; dams and pumps present vulnerabilities of the system, causing substantial unmet demand during disruptions. Noting the interdependencies between the water–power system halves while leveraging an integrated simulation allows for an insightful analysis of the system impacts during disruptions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗