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At least 181 records · Page 10

Impact of MODIS High-Resolution Sea-Surface Temperatures on WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Over the past few years,studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) composite sea-surface temperature (SST) products in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. The recent paper by LaCasse et al. (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPoRT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The scientific hypothesis being tested is: More accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running the WRF system in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software; The EMS is a standalone modeling system capable of downloading the necessary daily datasets, and initializing, running and displaying WRF forecasts in the NWS Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) with little intervention required by forecasters. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run daily with start times of 0300,0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and the far western portions of the Bahamas, the Florida Keys, the Straights of Florida, and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS, invoking the diabatic. "hot-start" capability. In this WRF model "hot-start", the LAPS-analyzed cloud and precipitation features are converted into model microphysics fields with enhanced vertical velocity profiles, effectively reducing the model spin-up time required to predict precipitation systems. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at l/12 degree resolution (approx. 9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPoRT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA in every respect except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water. The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPoRT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST composites into the SPoRTWRF runs is staggered such that the 0400UTC composite initializes the 0900 UTC WRF, the 0700 UTC composite initializes the 1500 UTC WRF, the 1600 UTC composite initializes the 2100 UTC WRF, and the 1900 UTC composite initializes the 0300 UTC WRF. A comparison of the SPoRT and Miami forecasts is underway in 2007, and includes quantitative verification of near-surface temperature, dewpoint, and wind forecasts at surface observation locations. In addition, particular days of interest are being analyzed to determine the impact of the MODIS SST data on the development and evolution of predicted sea/land-breeze circulations, clouds, and precipitation. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA forecasts the SPoRT experimental WRF forecasts, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Transition, Training, and Assessment of Multispectral Composite Imagery in Support of the NWS Aviation Forecast Mission

The NASA/Short‐term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and short‐term forecasting issues. Several multispectral composite imagery (i.e. RGB) products were introduced to users in the early 2000s to support hydrometeorology and aviation challenges as well as incident support. These activities lead to SPoRT collaboration with the GOES‐R Proving Ground efforts where instruments such as MODIS (Aqua, Terra) and S‐NPP/VIIRS imagers began to be used as near‐realtime proxies to future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). One of the composite imagery products introduced to users was the Night‐time Microphysics RGB, originally developed by EUMETSAT. SPoRT worked to transition this imagery to NWS users, provide region‐specific training, and assess the impact of the imagery to aviation forecast needs. This presentation discusses the method used to interact with users to address specific aviation forecast challenges, including training activities undertaken to prepare for a product assessment. Users who assessed the multispectral imagery ranged from southern U.S. inland and coastal NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs), to those in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region and West Coast, as well as highlatitude forecasters of Alaska. These user‐based assessments were documented and shared with the satellite community to support product developers and the broad users of new generation satellite data.

Fuell, Kevin↗

A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Lightning studies using LDAR and companion data sets

Research was conducted to use the KSC Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system, together with companion data, in four subprojects: weather forecasting and advisory applications of LDAR, LDAR in relation to field mill readings, lightning flash and stroke detection using LDAR, and LDAR in relation to radar reflectivity patterns and KSC wind profiler vertical velocities. The research is aimed at developing rules, algorithms, and training materials that can be used by the operational weather forecasters who issue weather advisories for daily ground operations and launches by NASA and the United States Air Force. During the summer of 1993, LDAR data was examined on an hourly basis from 14 thunderstorm days and compared to ground strike data measured by the Lightning Location and Protection (LLP) system. These data were re-examined during 1994 to identify, number, and track LDAR-detected storms continually throughout the day and avoid certain interpretation problems arising from the use of hourly files. An areal storm growth factor was incorporated into a scheme to use current mappings of LDAR-defined thunderstorms to predict future ground strikes. During the summer of 1994, extensive sets of LDAR and companion data have been collected for 16 thunderstorm days, including a variety of meteorological situations. Detailed case studies are being conducted to relate the occurence of LDAR to the radar structure and evolution of thunderstorms. Field mill (LPWS) data are being examined to evaluate the complementary nature of LDAR and LPLWS data in determining the time of beginning and ending of the ground strike threat at critical sites. A computerized lightning flash and stroke discrimination algorithm has been written that can be used to help locate the points of origin of the electrical discharges, help distinguish in-cloud, cloud-ground, and upward flashes, and perhaps determine when the threat of ground strikes has ceased. Surface wind tower (mesonet), radar, sounding, and KSC wind profiler data will be used to develop schemes to help anticipate the timing and location of new thunderstorm development. Analysis of this data will continue in graduate student research projects.

Forbes, Gregory S.↗

Atmospheric and oceanographic research review, 1978

Research activities related to global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate are reported. The global weather research is aimed at improving the assimilation of satellite-derived data in weather forecast models, developing analysis/forecast models that can more fully utilize satellite data, and developing new measures of forecast skill to properly assess the impact of satellite data on weather forecasting. The oceanographic research goal is to understand and model the processes that determine the general circulation of the oceans, focusing on those processes that affect sea surface temperature and oceanic heat storage, which are the oceanographic variables with the greatest influence on climate. The climate research objective is to support the development and effective utilization of space-acquired data systems in climate forecast models and to conduct sensitivity studies to determine the affect of lower boundary conditions on climate and predictability studies to determine which global climate features can be modeled either deterministically or statistically.

Source record↗

Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) Sensor Development

One of the recommendations of the National Aviation Weather Program Council was to expand and institutionalize the generation, dissemination, and use of automated pilot reports (PIREPS) to the full spectrum of the aviation community, including general aviation. In response to this and other similar recommendations, NASA initiated cooperative research into the development of an electronic pilot reporting capability (Daniels 2002). The ultimate goal is to develop a small low-cost sensor, collect useful meteorological observations below 25,000 ft., downlink the data in near real time, and use the data to improve weather forecasts. Primary users of the data include pilots, who are one targeted audience for the improved weather information that will result from the TAMDAR data. The weather data will be disseminated and used to improve aviation safety by providing pilots with enhanced weather situational awareness. In addition, the data will be used to improve the accuracy and timeliness of weather forecasts. Other users include air traffic controllers, flight service stations, and airline weather centers. Additionally, the meteorological data collected by TAMDAR is expected to have a significant positive impact on forecast accuracy for ground based applications.

Daniels, Taumi S.↗

Spaceflight meteorology group evolution of the daily simulation forecast verification effort

The National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) creates daily weather forecasts for various shuttle landing sites in the Continental United States, Europe, and Africa. This effort was described by Bellue and Cunningham (1990) at the Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the National Weather Association. Since then, verification of these daily non-mission forecasts continues to evolve to meet the changing needs of the SMG meteorologists and the flight controllers at JSC. Originally, these forecasts were done to assist forecasters in maintaining proficiency for shuttle landing sites between missions. The effort is now being used to improve forecast confidence and modify shuttle weather flight rules as needed.

Bellue, Dan G.↗

Space Transportation System Meteorological Expert

The STS Meteorological Expert (STSMET) is a long-term project to acquire general Shuttle operational weather forecasting expertise specific to the launch locale, to apply it to Shuttle operational weather forecasting tasks at the Cape Canaveral Forecast Facility, and ultimately to provide an on-line real-time operational aid to the duty forecasters in performing their tasks. Particular attention is given to the development of an approach called scenario-based reasoning, with specific application to summer thunderstorms; this type of reasoning can also be applied to frontal weather phenomena, visibility including fog, and wind shear.

Beller, Arthur E.↗

Contrasting Trends in Colorado Fire Weather Index from Reanalysis and Observations

Recent wildfires in Colorado raise the question of whether rising global temperatures have increased fire weather occurrences in Colorado. The U.S. National Weather Service defines fire weather as when “forecast weather conditions will result in a significant threat for the ignition and/or spread of wildfires.” We use two datasets to address the question: “How has the occurrence of fire weather changed in Colorado?” Using 22 years of observed weather conditions from a meteorological tower at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and 67 years of ERA5 reanalysis data, we assess changing trends in Colorado fire weather as defined by hot, dry, and windy conditions. Additionally, we explore if the difference in recorded wind speeds between observational data and reanalysis data can be explained by differences in spatial and temporal resolution and what are the implications in the context of quantifying fire weather occurrences. The observational data are limited in temporal extent and spatial representativeness, but they capture exact real-world conditions at a location in complex terrain. The reanalysis data are available for an extended period of time and for the entire state, but the data are of relatively coarse spatial and temporal resolution and may fail to capture extremes. To quantify fire risk, we calculate the hot–dry–windy index (HDWI), which relies on wind speed and vapor pressure deficit. No statistically significant trend in the HDWI appears in the observational dataset. However, according to the reanalysis data, strong increasing trends in HDWI values emerge across all of Colorado. This apparent conflict between observational and reanalysis data suggests that reanalysis data may not be representative. Further, more long-term observational datasets are required to assess fire risk.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The three-dimensional distribution of atmospheric heating during the GWE

The large-scale three-dimensional time-averaged distribution of heating and its temporal evolution as determined from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Global Weather Experiment (GWE) Level IIIb data set are examined. Global distributions of vertically averaged heating for January, April, July, and October 1979 are presented to illustrate the seasonal evolution of the planetary pattern. Horizontal distributions of heating and vertical profiles from various climatological regimes of the planetary circulation are given and provide insight into the four-dimensional structure of the thermal forcing of the atmosphere. Major features of the global distributions include heating in regions of deep moist convection over places such as South America. Seasonal meridional and zonal heating migration are discussed and it is noted that zonal migration is linked with planetary scale distribution of continents and oceans and the land-sea surface temperature distribution. Various degrees of heating in the troposphere and their consequences are investigated.

Schaack, Todd K.↗

A Constellation of Microsatellites Promises to Help in a Range of Geoscience Research

An octet of microsatellites to be launched in 2003 promises to deliver a large amount of useful data for meteorological, climatic, ionospheric, and geodetic research as well as for operational weather forecasting and space weather monitoring. Known as the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), the joint Taiwan-U.S. scientific satellite project makes use of Global Positioning System (GPS) occultation and tracking signals. COSMIC's final operational configuration is depicted in Figure 1. Each of the eight microsatellites in low-Earth-orbit (LEO, shown relative to the high-altitude GPS satellite orbits) will carry in particular an advanced limb-sounding GPS receiver, a Tiny Ionospheric Photometer, and a triband beacon transmitter.

Kuo, Y. H.↗

The International Space Station Lightning Imaging Sensor: Performance, Applications, and Cross-Platform Science

The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), an optically based lightning detector developed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, was launched to the International Space Station (ISS) in February 2017, detecting optical signatures of lightning with storm-scale horizontal resolution (4-km) during both day and night. ISS LIS data are available 1 March 2017 to present. Millisecond timing allows detailed intercalibration and validation with other spaceborne and ground-based lightning sensors. Initial comparisons with those other sensors suggest flash detection efficiency around 60% (diurnal variability of 51-75%), false alarm rate under 5%, timing accuracy better than 2 ms, and horizontal location accuracy around 3 km. The spatially uniform flash detection capability of ISS LIS from low-Earth orbit allows assessment of spatially varying flash detection efficiency for other sensors and networks, particularly the Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GLMs). ISS LIS provides research data suitable for investigations of lightning physics, climatology, thunderstorm processes, and atmospheric composition, as well as realtime lightning data for operational forecasting and aviation weather interests. ISS LIS enables enrichment and extension of the long-term global climatology of lightning from space, and is the only recent platform that extends the global record to higher latitudes (± 55°). The global spatial distribution of lightning from ISS LIS is broadly similar to previous datasets, with globally averaged seasonal/annual flash rates (3-year average: ~44 s) about 5-10% lower. This difference is likely due to reduced flash detection efficiency that will be mitigated in future ISS LIS data processing, as well as the shorter ISS LIS period of record. The expected land/ocean contrast in the diurnal variability of global lightning is also observed. The near-realtime ISS LIS data make the instrument important to operational weather forecasting and related applications, including public safety. Finally, ISS LIS is demonstrating utility as part (or potential part) of cross-platform studies examining a diverse array of topics, including lightning physics, thunderstorm processes, convective precipitation, and atmospheric composition.

Timothy Lang↗

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. It affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and both surface and airspace operations can benefit from better understanding future runway configurations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive implementation of predictive models for runway configuration estimation from large volumes of historical data. Specifically, operational data from two full years (2018 and 2019) is collected, analyzed, and fused together to build the data product used in this work. The data set differs from prior work in the field in terms of its scope, resolution, and variety of factors collected and considered. Meteorological data is collected from two different sources – current weather conditions from METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report) and forecast weather conditions from Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Operational data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) related to scheduled and actual number of arrivals and departures, average taxi times, etc. are collected. NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse is used to identify critical information such as go-arounds, and other events that might impact RCM decision-making. All data is collected and aggregated over 15-minute intervals throughout the two years. This provides a resolution like the timescales that might be necessary for runway configuration management decision-making. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, etc. including tuning of the model hyperparameters. The modeling process is applied and presented on two representative U.S. airports – Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) and Denver International Airport (KDEN). The two airports present different levels of complexity in terms of the total number of configurations used and provide a balanced perspective on the generalizability of the developed approach to other airports in the NAS. Initial results are promising (F1 score of 0.91 at KCLT and 0.83 at KDEN) for data in the test set. The final paper will contain a comprehensive comparison between different models and model building strategies as well as further refined results. Most important predictors for each airport will be identified along with a discussion and recommendations on adapting the framework to other scenarios.

Tejas G Puranik↗

Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyond. This is driven by the needs of the energy, water management, and agriculture sectors, to name a few. There is an increasing realization that, unlike weather forecasts, prediction skill on longer time scales can leverage specific climate phenomena or conditions for a predictable signal above the weather noise. Currently, it is understood that these conditions are intermittent in time and have spatially heterogeneous impacts on skill, hence providing strategic windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts. Research points to such windows of opportunity, including El Niño or La Niña events, active periods of the Madden–Julian oscillation, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex, when certain large-scale atmospheric regimes are in place, or when persistent anomalies occur in the ocean or land surface. Gains could be obtained by increasingly developing prediction tools and metrics that strategically target these specific windows of opportunity. Across the globe, reevaluating forecasts in this manner could find value in forecasts previously discarded as not skillful. Users’ expectations for prediction skill could be more adequately met, as they are better aware of when and where to expect skill and if the prediction is actionable. Given that there is still untapped potential, in terms of process understanding and prediction methodologies, it is safe to expect that in the future forecast opportunities will expand. Process research and the development of innovative methodologies will aid such progress.

Annarita Mariotti↗

Applications of LANCE Data at SPoRT

Short term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: Mission: Apply NASA and NOAA measurement systems and unique Earth science research to improve the accuracy of short term weather prediction at the regional/local scale. Goals: Evaluate and assess the utility of NASA and NOAA Earth science data and products and unique research capabilities to address operational weather forecast problems; Provide an environment which enables the development and testing of new capabilities to improve short term weather forecasts on a regional scale; Help ensure successful transition of new capabilities to operational weather entities for the benefit of society

Molthan, Andrew↗

STEREO as a "Planetary Hazards" Mission

NASA's twin STEREO probes, launched in 2006, have advanced the art and science of space weather forecasting more than any other spacecraft or solar observatory. By surrounding the Sun, they provide previously-impossible early warnings of threats approaching Earth as they develop on the solar far side. They have also revealed the 3D shape and inner structure of CMEs-massive solar storms that can trigger geomagnetic storms when they collide with Earth. This improves the ability of forecasters to anticipate the timing and severity of such events. Moreover, the unique capability of STEREO to track CMEs in three dimensions allows forecasters to make predictions for other planets, giving rise to the possibility of interplanetary space weather forecasting too. STEREO is one of those rare missions for which "planetary hazards" refers to more than one world. The STEREO probes also hold promise for the study of comets and potentially hazardous asteroids.

Heliosphere↗

Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profile Assimilation

Advanced technology in hyperspectral sensors such as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS; Aumann et al. 2003) on NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite retrieve higher vertical resolution thermodynamic profiles than their predecessors due to increased spectral resolution. Although these capabilities do not replace the robust vertical resolution provided by radiosondes, they can serve as a complement to radiosondes in both space and time. These retrieved soundings can have a significant impact on weather forecasts if properly assimilated into prediction models. Several recent studies have evaluated the performance of specific operational weather forecast models when AIRS data are included in the assimilation process. LeMarshall et al. (2006) concluded that AIRS radiances significantly improved 500 hPa anomaly correlations in medium-range forecasts of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. McCarty et al. (2009) demonstrated similar forecast improvement in 0-48 hour forecasts in an offline version of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model when AIRS radiances were assimilated at the regional scale. Reale et al. (2008) showed improvements to Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomaly correlations in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global system with the inclusion of partly cloudy AIRS temperature profiles. Singh et al. (2008) assimilated AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional modeling system for a study of a heavy rainfall event during the summer monsoon season in Mumbai, India. This paper describes an approach to assimilate AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var; Barker et al. 2004). Section 2 describes the AIRS instrument and how the quality indicators are used to intelligently select the highest-quality data for assimilation. Section 3 presents an overall precipitation improvement with AIRS assimilation during a 37-day case study period, and Section 4 focuses on a single case study to further investigate the meteorological impact of AIRS profiles on synoptic scale models. Finally, Section 5 provides a summary of the paper.

Chou, S.-H.↗

A study of comprehension and use of weather information by various agricultural groups in Wisconsin

An attempt was made to determine whether current techniques are adequate for communicating improved weather forecasts to users. Primary concern was for agricultural users. Efforts were made to learn the preferred source of weather forecasts and the frequency of use. Attempts were also made to measure knowledge of specific terms having to do with weather and comprehension of terms less often used but critical to varying intensities of weather.

Smith, J. L.↗