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At least 181 records · Page 10

Microwave Investigation of the Mars Atmosphere and Surface

The Microwave Investigation of the Mars Atmosphere and Surface Experiment (MIMAS) is designed to address two major scientific goals: 1) To understand the three dimensional general circulation of the Martian atmosphere, and 2) To understand the hydrologic cycle of water on Mars, including the time-variable sources, sinks, and atmospheric transport of water vapor. The proposed instrument is a submillimeter wave, heterodyne receiver, with both continuum and very high spectral resolution capability. A small reflector antenna will be used to feed the receiver. Instrument heritage comes from the MIRO receiver, currently under design for the ESA Rosetta Mission, and from SWAS, a NASA astrophysics mission. The instrument will be able to measure atmospheric spectral lines from both water and carbon monoxide and use these lines as tracers of atmospheric winds. Measurement objectives of MIMAS are to measure surface temperature, atmospheric temperature from the surface up to an altitude of 60 km or more, the distribution of CO and H2O in the atmosphere, and certain wind fields (zonal and meridional). The global distribution of CO, as well as temperature distributions, will be used as input data for GCMs (general circulation models). Water vapor profiles will be used to understand the sources and sinks of water on Mars and to understand how it is transported globally by the general circulation. Zonal and meridional wind fields will provide further tests of the GCMs. An important aspect of this experiment is that the temperature and humidity measurements are insensitive to dust and ice condensates thereby making the measurement capability independent of the presence of dust clouds and ice particles. Temperature measurements derived from the data can be used in conjunction with infrared measurements to determine dust profiles.

Gulkis, S.↗

Applications of Data Assimilation to Analysis of the Ocean on Large Scales

It is commonplace to begin talks on this topic by noting that oceanographic data are too scarce and sparse to provide complete initial and boundary conditions for large-scale ocean models. Even considering the availability of remotely-sensed data such as radar altimetry from the TOPEX and ERS-1 satellites, a glance at a map of available subsurface data should convince most observers that this is still the case. Data are still too sparse for comprehensive treatment of interannual to interdecadal climate change through the use of models, since the new data sets have not been around for very long. In view of the dearth of data, we must note that the overall picture is changing rapidly. Recently, there have been a number of large scale ocean analysis and prediction efforts, some of which now run on an operational or at least quasi-operational basis, most notably the model based analyses of the tropical oceans. These programs are modeled on numerical weather prediction. Aside from the success of the global tide models, assimilation of data in the tropics, in support of prediction and analysis of seasonal to interannual climate change, is probably the area of large scale ocean modeling and data assimilation in which the most progress has been made. Climate change is a problem which is particularly suited to advanced data assimilation methods. Linear models are useful, and the linear theory can be exploited. For the most part, the data are sufficiently sparse that implementation of advanced methods is worthwhile. As an example of a large scale data assimilation experiment with a recent extensive data set, we present results of a tropical ocean experiment in which the Kalman filter was used to assimilate three years of altimetric data from Geosat into a coarsely resolved linearized long wave shallow water model. Since nonlinear processes dominate the local dynamic signal outside the tropics, subsurface dynamical quantities cannot be reliably inferred from surface height anomalies. Because of its potential for large scale synoptic coverage of the deep ocean, acoustic travel time data should be a natural complement to satellite altimetry. Satellite data give us vertical integrals associated with thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Miller, Robert N.↗

MixPI: Mixed-time slicing path integral software for quantized molecular dynamics simulations

We introduce the MixPI software to implement path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations for the study of condensed phase systems where nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) are important. In contrast to existing PIMD simulation software, MixPI enables the implementation of mixed quantum–classical path integral simulations where only a subset of system degrees of freedom (dofs) are treated quantum mechanically in an extended phase space while the remaining dofs are described classically. We expect this software to be particularly useful for simulations of electron and proton transfer in condensed phase systems, as well as for the study of biological and material systems where only a handful of dofs contribute significantly to the observed NQEs. We demonstrate the use of MixPI in two different systems. The first is a simple water model where we implement a set of mixed quantum–classical simulations to compute average energy and radial distribution functions. We use these simulations to benchmark the effectiveness of MixPI and to demonstrate how it enables systematic investigation into the origin of observed NQEs. We then compute radial distribution functions for a system where MixPI is essential: a solvated metal (M 2+ ) cation described using an explicit quantized electron localized on an M 3+ ion in water.

chemical physics↗

FY-24 Progress on Computational Modeling of the Water Based NSTF

This report summarizes the computational modeling of the Natural Convection Shutdown Heat Removal Test Facility (NSTF) completed in FY24. This year’s modeling campaign focuses on the continual testing of the RELAP5 model against experimental data. Several fault cases were simulated with the RELAP5 model in FY23 to study the accuracy of the model under complex flow conditions. Similarly, in FY24, a case is simulated where the chimney outlet is throttled with a valve while the flow is undergoing two-phase oscillations. The purpose of this case is to study the effects of increasing pressure drop in the two-phase region on the system behavior. Even though the model is able to capture the experimental data qualitatively, it overpredicts the pressure drops experienced by the flow in the two-phase regime. Nevertheless, the model and the experiment show that oscillations are stabilized with increased pressure drop in the two-phase region.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Dee, Dick P.↗

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

biogeochemistry↗

Filling the Gaps: A Bayesian Mixture Model for Imputing Missing Soil Water Content Data

ABSTRACT Soil water content (SWC) data are central to evaluating how soil moisture varies over time and space and influences critical plant and ecosystem functions, especially in water‐limited drylands. However, sensors that record SWC at high frequencies often malfunction, leading to incomplete timeseries and limiting our understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics. We developed an analytical approach to impute missing SWC data, which we tested at six eddy flux tower sites along an elevation gradient in the southwestern United States. We impute missing data as a mixture of linearly interpolated SWC between the observed endpoints of a missing data gap and SWC simulated by an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2). Within a Bayesian framework, we allowed the relative utility (mixture weight) of each component (linearly interpolated vs. SOILWAT2) to vary by depth, site and gap characteristics. We explored “fixed” weights versus “dynamic” weights that vary as a function of cumulative precipitation, average temperature, and time since the start of the gap. Both models estimated missing SWC data well ( R 2 = 0.70–0.88 vs. 0.75–0.91 for fixed vs. dynamic weights, respectively), but the utility of linearly interpolated versus SOILWAT2 values depended on site and depth. SOILWAT2 was more useful for more arid sites, shallower depths, longer and warmer gaps and gaps that received greater precipitation. Overall, the mixture model reliably gap‐fills SWC, while lending insight into processes governing SWC dynamics. This approach to impute missing data could be adapted to accommodate more than two mixture components and other types of environmental timeseries.

Ogle, Kiona [School of Informatics, Computing, and↗

Water Dielectric Function at Finite Wavelength and the Convergence of Its Large Wavelength Limit (Static Dielectric) by Fluctuation Formulas

Here we provide a general analysis of the longitudinal dielectric function ε l (k) via fluctuation formulas at finite wavelength k, including the static dielectric constant ε w = ε l (k → 0), and analyze the different sources of errors, deriving explicit formulas. Simulations with the SPC/E water model show that the convergence of fluctuation formulas to compute the static dielectric constant is slow and requires long simulations. The analysis of ε l (k) allows us to identify the long- and short-wavelength limits and provide a precise determination of the location of the poles as well as the zeros in the complex plane, which determine the short-distance form of the electrostatic (Coulomb) interaction among charged particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

AI Improves the Accuracy, Reliability, and Economic Value of Continental‐Scale Flood Predictions

Accurate flood early warnings are critical to minimize damage and loss of life. Current large‐scale operational forecasting systems, however, have limited accuracy, description of uncertainty, and computational efficiency. While Artificial intelligence (AI) can address these limitations in principle, the accuracy and reliability of AI forecasts have thus far proven insufficient. Here we present a novel hybrid framework that integrates AI‐based machinery termed Errorcastnet (ECN) with the National Water Model (NWM) to showcase the potential of ensemble AI flood forecasts over the contiguous U.S. ECN boosts prediction accuracy four‐ to six‐fold across lead times of 1–10 days, while providing uncertainty quantification. It also outperforms Google's state‐of‐the‐art global AI model. ECN‐based forecasts offer superior economic value (up to four‐fold) for decision‐making as compared to those from NWM alone. ECN performs well in varied ecoregions, physiography, and land management conditions. The framework is computationally efficient, enabling national‐scale ensemble forecasts in minutes.

artificial intelligence↗

Iron XANES measurements of carbonates and phyllosilicates in CM chondrites: A record of redox conditions during aqueous alteration

Multiple generations of calcite and dolomite precipitated in CM chondrites during ice melting events that led to episodes of liquid water. Models and laboratory analysis have suggested a long-term transition from oxidizing to reducing conditions during aqueous alteration on the CM parent body. We found that synchrotron X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy (XANES) can detect relative differences in the oxidation state of trace iron within these carbonates. In CM chondrites, previous work interpreted Mn abundance in calcite as an indicator of relatively early or late formation, and dolomite is understood to form relatively late. In the CM1 chondrite Meteorite Hills 01070, XANES maps reveal that Mn-poor calcite contains more oxidized iron relative to Mn-rich calcite. While these measurements of carbonates support increasing iron reduction with progressive aqueous alteration in MET 01070, comparison among different CM chondrites suggests a complex picture of redox evolution. In addition to carbonates, we performed XANES measurements of the phyllosilicate-rich matrix of Allan Hills 83,100. Pre-edge centroid analysis indicates that this CM1/2 has an oxidation state similar to typical CM2 chondrites. While additional measurements are warranted to confirm the full span of redox trends in CM carbonates, our data do not support a correlation between redox state and petrologic type.

Bailey, Elizabeth [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz↗

Dynamics of electrified liquid surface during plasma-liquid interaction

The research goal of this Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fusion Energy Science (OFES) project was to investigate the electrified liquid surface dynamics using a shallow water model. The project was an extension of the Princeton Collaborative Research Facility (PCRF) project to work with Dr. Mikhail Shneider at Princeton University.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

RectifHydPlus: Forty Year Hydropower Generation Reanalysis for Conterminous United States, Version 1.1.

This dataset contains monthly hydropower net-generation totals for 590 plants (each >10 MW) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1980 to 2019. RectifHydPlus v1.1 includes one harmonized table of historical monthly generation—backfilled with observed monthly values where available—and two companion tables: (i) an estimates-only version with no backfill and (ii) a hydrological-control version that removes the effects of capacity and operational change. Each table comprises 23,600 records (590 plants × 40 years). The dataset was developed to address temporal gaps and inconsistencies in publicly available hydropower generation data as available through EIA-923 survey reports. Each record includes a quality label denoting the underlying proxy—from best (direct reservoir releases) to weakest (pattern copied from similar years). By combining the agency-reported survey records with observed and simulated hydrologic releases, RectifHydPlus offers complete, quality-labeled monthly estimates suitable for trend analysis and generation of hydropower generation inputs for energy-water modeling.

Turner, Sean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

Nonlinear and linear bottom interaction effects in shallow water

The paper examines wave-energy dissipation rates in shallow water calculated from measured wave spectra at different distances from the shore. Different linear and nonlinear transfer and dissipation mechanisms are discussed. The various data sets are interpreted in terms of prevailing mechanisms at the respective sites. The incorporation of different processes in a predictive shallow-water model is outlined. The analysis suggests that bottom motion is primarily responsible for wave-energy dissipation in the Delta Region of the Gulf of Mexico, that friction is mainly responsible for wave-energy dissipation in Marineland, Panama City and Melkbosstrand, and that percolation is probably the dominant mechanism in the JONSWAP area of the North Sea.

Shemdin, O.↗

Mountain winds (revisited)

The prediction of extremely high wind speeds, at ground level on the downstream side of a mountain range, is possible by solving the initial value problem for a two-layered nonlinear shallow water model of the atmosphere. Three different numerical methods are described to find the solutions which may involve shocks: (1) the vonNeumann-Richtmyer artificial viscosity method, (2) a filtering scheme, and (3) a hybrid method.

Isaacson, E.↗

Shallow water experiments using an improved Kreiss-Oliger 2-4 scheme

The Abarbanel-Gottleib (AG) modification of the Kreiss-Oliger (KO) scheme is applied to a global 1-level shallow water model and the results compared to results obtained using the standard KO scheme. The standard KO scheme consists of the second order leapfrog scheme for time derivatives and fourth order space differencing for spatial derivatives. The AG scheme modifies the KO scheme in a manner similar to that done by Wilson to the multidimensional leapfrog scheme, obtaining a 35-40% improvement of the maximum time step. Application of the AG scheme expands the domain of influence of the KO scheme by including off-axis grid points.

Takacs, L. L.↗

Application of future remote sensing systems to irrigation

Area estimates of irrigated crops and knowledge of crop type are required for modeling water consumption to assist farmers, rangers, and agricultural consultants in scheduling irrigation for distributed management of crop yields. Information on canopy physiology and soil moisture status on a spatial basis is potentially available from remote sensors, so the questions to be addressed relate to: (1) timing (data frequency, instantaneous and integrated measurement); and scheduling (widely distributed spatial demands); (2) spatial resolution; (3) radiometric and geometric accuracy and geoencoding; and (4) information/data distribution. This latter should be overnight, with no central storage, onsite capture, and low cost.

Miller, L. D.↗