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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Inferring safety critical events from vehicle kinematics in naturalistic driving environment: Application of deep learning Algorithms

Advances in sensing technology has enabled the collection of countless terabytes of second-by-second kinematics data. Such data provides opportunities for real-time monitoring of driving behavior and identification of safety critical events (SCEs) including crashes and near crashes. The concept of volatility is relevant in this context, which identifies instability and erratic variations in driving behavior prior to involvement in SCEs. This study utilized vehicle kinematics from a large-scale naturalistic driving data to develop a deep learning approach based on 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) for inferring SCEs. The data are unique in the sense that such accurate pre-crash data at high fidelity are not available in traditional crash repositories. This study contributes to the literature by providing a first attempt at predicting responses to SCEs by developing deep learning-based CNN architectures using novel driving volatility based kinematic thresholds for a sample of 9553 events. The key contribution lies in developing a volatility-based CNN input layout that is acceptable to CNN schemes and represents the motion kinematics such as speed, acceleration and volatility measures. Several 1D-CNN architectures were developed using layers, numbers of convolutions, layer patterns, and kernels. Shallow and deep architectures were tested, revealing higher accuracy of shallow architectures in detecting SCEs. The optimal number of epochs were identified using an early stopping method while the CNN performance was improved by increasing the number of epochs. The ensemble CNN had the highest predictive accuracy of 95.6% for detection of crashes and near crashes, which was 2.5% higher than the optimal CNN using 20% hold out test data. The ensemble CNN also outperformed classical machine learning models and model performance reported in past studies on detection of SCEs. Finally, these results have implications for identification of safety hotspots and providing real-time alerts and warnings in connected and highly automated vehicle environment including society of automotive engineers levels 3–5.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Disruption thermal load mitigation with shattered pellet injection on the Joint European Torus (JET)

Disruption mitigation remains a critical, unresolved challenge for ITER. To aid in addressing this challenge, a shattered pellet injection (SPI) system was installed on JET and experiments conducted at a range of thermal energy fractions and stored energies in excess of 7 MJ. The primary goals of these experiments were to investigate the efficacy of the SPI on JET and the ability of the plasma to assimilate multiple pellets. Single pellet injections produced a saturation in total radiated energy (Wrad) with increasing injected neon content, suggesting total radiation of stored thermal energy. Further increases in injected neon quantities resulted in reduced cooling times and current quench (CQ) durations, indicating higher impurity assimilation. No significant variation in CQ duration or W rad was observed when varying the deuterium content at fixed neon quantities. Additionally, higher assimilation, inferred by shorter CQ durations, was measured when a mechanical punch was used to launch the pellets and this was attributed to a lower pellet velocity leading to higher solid content in the pellet plume and larger fragments penetrating deeper into the plasma. Radiation asymmetries averaged over the cooling time were inferred from Emis3D and ranged from 1.6 to 1.9. Asymmetries averaged over the entire disruption sequence were found to increase at higher thermal energy fractions. The radiated energy fractions decreased with increasing thermal energy fractions but this trend was eliminated when toroidal asymmetries were accounted for with Emis3D. Pure deuterium pellets were able to produce cooling times of up to 75 ms with a gradual loss in thermal stored energy of up to 80%. Experiments with multiple pellet injection indicated W rad can be increased through pellet superposition and density can be increased with an additional D2 injection without a reduction in W rad . KPRAD modelling accurately reproduced the cooling times and the CQ duration at high thermal energies. Assimilation estimates from KPRAD indicated CQ rates scale strongly whilst W rad scales weakly and saturates with assimilated neon content. Comparable W rad can be achieved with lower assimilated neon quantities as longer cooling times are attained. Thus reduced neon content can be preferential in a thermal load mitigation scheme as it may reduce radiation asymmetries and prevent flash melting.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Variation in surface properties as error sources in dynamic temperature measurements

Most temperature measurement methods rely upon the assumption of a single uniform source as part of the analysis in inferring an observed temperature T from the surface of a material. This is true for the radiometric and spectroscopic methods we rely upon in shock physics. However, there are obvious cases where this is a poor assumption that can cause large errors in analysis, such as the measurement of emission from a surface composed of more than one material, such as a rusted surface of Fe and Fe 2 O 3 , or a multi-material surface that could be produced through alloying methods (e.g., mokume gane) or 3D printing. Here we perform an initial examination of the effects of varied surface properties upon the analysis using idealized test data to constrain when we may have better confidence in the resulting calculations. We also examine the structures of the fits to test whether, in principle, comparing the fit with ideal gray bodies would reveal such a structure and enable the researcher to identify when a two-temperature fitting model should be used instead of a single- T model or a wavelength-dependent emissivity model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A hierarchical Bayesian model for background variation in radiation source localization

In this paper, we apply a new model to account for varying background radiation in radiological source localization. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model that simultaneously infers background and source location parameters without requiring separate estimation of the background radiation at each detector location. We employ a simplified photon transport model to reduce the computational expense of Bayesian model calibration. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model accuracy by localizing a cesium-137 source in a simulated city block, and we analyze experimental field measurements with varying background. In both cases, the model provides sufficient fidelity that we can locate the source while simultaneously estimating background radiation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Inference offers a metric to constrain dynamical models of neutrino flavor transformation

The multimessenger astrophysics of compact objects presents a vast range of environments where neutrino flavor transformation may occur and may be important for nucleosynthesis, dynamics, and a detected neutrino signal. Development of efficient techniques for surveying flavor evolution solution spaces in these diverse environments, which augment and complement existing sophisticated computational tools, could leverage progress in this field. To this end we continue our exploration of statistical data assimilation (SDA) to identify solutions to a small-scale model of neutrino flavor transformation. SDA is a machine learning formula wherein a dynamical model is assumed to generate any measured quantities. Specifically, we use an optimization formulation of SDA wherein a cost function is extremized via the variational method. Regions of state space in which the extremization identifies the global minimum of the cost function will correspond to parameter regimes in which a model solution can exist. Our example study seeks to infer the flavor transformation histories of two monoenergetic neutrino beams coherently interacting with each other and with a matter background. We require that the solution be consistent with measured neutrino flavor fluxes at the point of detection, and with constraints placed upon the flavor content at various locations along their trajectories, such as the point of emission, and the locations of the Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein resonances. We show how the procedure efficiently identifies solution regimes and rules out regimes where solutions are infeasible. Overall, results in this work intimate the promise of this “variational annealing” methodology to efficiently probe an array of fundamental questions that traditional numerical simulation codes render difficult to access.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Stress Sensor for In-Situ High-Pressure Deformation Experiments Using Radial X-Ray Diffraction

We developed a stress sensor for in-situ deformation experiments using synchrotron radial X-ray diffraction. This stress sensor provided nearly diffraction-plane-independent stress that, when used in series with a sample, reduced the uncertainty of the average stress estimation acting on a sample. Here, we present the results of a study where pyrope was used as a stress sensor. Using a Deformation-DIA (D-DIA) high-pressure deformation apparatus, pyrope, olivine and alumina were deformed in the same run/cell assembly placed in series along the compression direction. Deformation experiments were conducted at pressures between 4 and 5 GPa and temperatures between 730 and 1273 K with strain-rates between 10 –5 and 10 –6 s –1 . Stresses estimated from various (hkl) planes in pyrope were nearly the same; i.e., pyrope is plastically isotropic with ≤10 % variation with (hkl). However, stresses from various (hkl) planes in olivine and alumina varied by approximately a factor of 3. Comparisons between average stresses inferred from pyrope and those from different diffraction planes in olivine and alumina showed that the average stress in these materials evolved from low-end stress, estimated from various (hkl) planes at small strain, to high-end stress at a large strain. This suggests that the rate-controlling slip system in these materials changes from the soft to the hard slip system with strain.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dependence of the impurity transport on the dominant turbulent regime in ELM-y H-mode discharges on the DIII-D tokamak

Laser blow-off injections of aluminum and tungsten have been performed on the DIII-D tokamak to investigate the variation of impurity transport in a set of dedicated ion and electron heating scans with a fixed value of the external torque. The particle transport is quantified via the Bayesian inference method, which, constrained by a combination of a charge exchange recombination spectroscopy, soft X-ray measurements, and VUV spectroscopy provides a detailed uncertainty quantification of transport coefficients. Contrasting discharge phases with a dominant electron and ion heating reveal 3-fold drop in the impurity confinement time and order of magnitude increase in midradius impurity diffusion, when additional electron heating is applied. Further, the calculated stationary aluminum density profiles reverse from peaked in electron heated to hollow in the ion heated case, following a similar trend as electron and carbon density. Comparable values of a core diffusion have been observed for W and Al ions, while differences in the propagation dynamics of these impurities are attributed to pedestal and edge transport. Modeling of the core transport with non-linear gyrokinetics code CGYRO, significantly underpredicts the magnitude of the variation in Al transport. Diffusion increases 3-times steeper with additional electron heat flux and 10-times lower diffusion is observed in ion heated case than predicted by the modeling. Here, the CGYRO model quantitatively matches the increase of the Al diffusion when approaching the linear threshold for the transition from the ion temperature gradient (ITG) to trapped electron mode (TEM).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Review of Factors Affecting the Susceptibility of Juvenile Salmonids to Avian Predation

Abstract We reviewed studies of piscivorous colonial waterbird predation on juvenile salmonids to synthesize current knowledge of factors affecting fish susceptibility to avian predators. Specifically, we examined peer-reviewed publications and reports from academic, governmental, and nongovernmental agencies to identify commonalities and differences in susceptibility of salmonids to avian predation, with a focus on mark–recovery studies in the Columbia River basin. Factors hypothesized to influence salmonid susceptibility to avian predation were grouped into four general categories: (1) salmonid species and populations, (2) environmental factors, (3) prey density, predator density, and migration timing, and (4) prey characteristics. Our review focused on predation by Caspian terns Hydroprogne caspia, double-crested cormorants Nannopterum auritum, and gull species Larus spp. as these are the most well-studied avian predators of salmonids. Results indicated that predator–prey interactions varied across salmonid species and populations and species of avian predator. Inferences across studies supported multiple hypotheses regarding predator–prey dynamics, including environmental factors that influence prey exposure to predators (e.g., river flows, turbidity, alternative prey), variation in predator and prey abundances, predator characteristics (e.g., foraging behavior, colony location), and prey characteristics (e.g., fish length, condition). Mark–recovery studies of avian predation on fish populations have greatly improved our understanding of the factors affecting fish susceptibility to avian predation, the relative contributions of abiotic and biotic factors to predation susceptibility, and the extent to which avian predation affects fish survival and the viability of prey populations. Future studies that jointly model predation and survival and the factors affecting those processes will further broaden our understanding of predator–prey dynamics and directly evaluate the effects of predation on prey population dynamics.

Hostetter, Nathan J. (ORCID:0000000160752157)↗

DOE OSTI2026

A non-intrusive framework using acoustic signals and deep learning for boiling diagnostics in visual-limited environments

Accurate monitoring of boiling heat transfer is critical for safeguarding high-power systems operating in environments where conventional optical diagnostics are hindered by radiation fields or restricted visual accessibility. This study presents a non-intrusive framework that integrates hydroacoustic sensing with deep learning to infer near-wall boiling characteristics and enable predictive thermal assessment without visual access. In a prototypical subcooled flow-boiling facility representative of the Isotope Production Facility (IPF) at Los Alamos, hydrophones capture boiling-induced acoustic emissions that are transformed into background-removed Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) spectrograms. A convolutional neural network (CNN) then regresses heat flux, wall superheat, and key bubble parameters directly from these spectrograms. The CNN achieved predictive accuracy under nominal conditions and demonstrated robustness and generalization under acoustic noise for Signal-to-Noise Ratios (SNRs) down to approximately 0 dB. When integrated into an ANSYS CFX wall-boiling model, the acoustically inferred parameters reproduced boiling curve and critical heat flux (CHF) values consistent with image-based benchmarks. Furthermore, the model retained reliable performance under moderate variations in bulk temperature, flow rate, and hydrophone placement, confirming its generalizability across practical boundary conditions. These results demonstrate the feasibility of hydroacoustic-based deep learning as a viable path toward real-time, radiation-tolerant boiling diagnostics and predictive thermal safety assessment in inaccessible systems such as the IPF.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Remarkably coherent population structure for a dominant Antarctic Chlorobium species

Background: In Antarctica, summer sunlight enables phototrophic microorganisms to drive primary production, thereby “feeding” ecosystems to enable their persistence through the long, dark winter months. In Ace Lake, a stratified marine-derived system in the Vestfold Hills of East Antarctica, a Chlorobium species of green sulphur bacteria (GSB) is the dominant phototroph, although its seasonal abundance changes more than 100-fold. Here, we analysed 413 Gb of Antarctic metagenome data including 59 Chlorobium metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from Ace Lake and nearby stratified marine basins to determine how genome variation and population structure across a 7-year period impacted ecosystem function. Results: A single species, Candidatus Chlorobium antarcticum (most similar to Chlorobium phaeovibrioides DSM265) prevails in all three aquatic systems and harbours very little genomic variation (≥ 99% average nucleotide identity). A notable feature of variation that did exist related to the genomic capacity to biosynthesize cobalamin. The abundance of phylotypes with this capacity changed seasonally ~ 2-fold, consistent with the population balancing the value of a bolstered photosynthetic capacity in summer against an energetic cost in winter. The very high GSB concentration (> 10 8 cells ml –1 in Ace Lake) and seasonal cycle of cell lysis likely make Ca. Chlorobium antarcticum a major provider of cobalamin to the food web. Analysis of Ca. Chlorobium antarcticum viruses revealed the species to be infected by generalist (rather than specialist) viruses with a broad host range (e.g., infecting Gammaproteobacteria) that were present in diverse Antarctic lakes. The marked seasonal decrease in Ca. Chlorobium antarcticum abundance may restrict specialist viruses from establishing effective lifecycles, whereas generalist viruses may augment their proliferation using other hosts. Conclusion: The factors shaping Antarctic microbial communities are gradually being defined. In addition to the cold, the annual variation in sunlight hours dictates which phototrophic species can grow and the extent to which they contribute to ecosystem processes. The Chlorobium population studied was inferred to provide cobalamin, in addition to carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen, and sulphur cycling, as critical ecosystem services. The specific Antarctic environmental factors and major ecosystem benefits afforded by this GSB likely explain why such a coherent population structure has developed in this Chlorobium species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Onset of magma ocean solidification on Mars inferred from Mn-Cr chronometry

The mantle of Mars probably differentiated through the crystallization of a magma ocean during the first tens of million years (Ma) of Solar System evolution. However, the exact timescale of large-scale silicate differentiation of the martian mantle is debated, and in particular, it remains unclear when differentiation commenced. In this paper, we applied the short-lived 53 Mn- 53 Cr system to martian meteorites in order to date the onset of large-scale mantle differentiation on Mars. The new Cr isotope data demonstrate that martian meteorites exhibit no resolvable radiogenic 53 Cr variations, and instead have a uniform +20.2±1.2 (95% conf.) parts-per-million excess in 53 Cr/ 52 Cr relative to the terrestrial mantle. The investigated groups of martian meteorites are lithologically varied and derive from diverse mantle sources that probably had variable Mn/Cr. Hence, the lack of 53 Cr variability among martian meteorites demonstrates that silicate differentiation on Mars occurred after the extinction of 53 Mn. Provided that the sources of the martian meteorites have Mn/Cr variations that are typical of the terrestrial planets, this result implies that the onset of large-scale silicate differentiation must have occurred later than 20±5 Ma after Solar System formation. The onset of silicate differentiation on Mars inferred here is significantly later than time estimates for segregation of the martian core which conservatively occurred within <10 Ma after Solar System formation. Thus, the new Mn-Cr data imply that there was a small, but resolvable, time gap of at least 5 Ma between core formation and magma ocean solidification on Mars. If the age of core segregation is taken at face value, our results imply that the martian magma ocean remained mostly molten over several Ma. This inferred longevity of the magma ocean is inconsistent with thermal models predicting rapid (<1 Ma) solidification of the martian magma ocean. Although there is currently no unique solution to this conundrum, our results can potentially be explained by a protracted history of impact bombardment that delayed differentiation in a shallow magma ocean on Mars, or perhaps more readily, by the presence of an early and dense atmosphere that acted as an insulator and prevented the magma ocean from cooling quickly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive mitigation of time-varying quantum noise

Current quantum computers suffer from non-stationary noise channels with high error rates, which undermines their reliability and reproducibility. We propose a Bayesian inference based adaptive algorithm that can learn and mitigate quantum noise in response to changing channel conditions. Our study emphasizes the need for dynamic inference of critical channel parameters to improve program accuracy. We use the Dirichlet distribution to model the stochasticity of the Pauli channel. This allows us to perform Bayesian inference, which can improve the performance of probabilistic error cancellation (PEC) under time-varying noise. Our work demonstrates the importance of characterizing and mitigating temporal variations in quantum noise, which is crucial for developing more accurate and reliable quantum technologies. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian PEC can outperform non-adaptive approaches by a factor of 4.5x when measured using Hellinger distance from the ideal distribution.

Dasgupta, Samudra↗

DOE OSTI2021

Functional capacities of microbial communities to carry out large scale geochemical processes are maintained during ex situ anaerobic incubation

Mechanisms controlling CO 2 and CH 4 production in wetlands are central to understanding carbon cycling and greenhouse gas exchange. However, the volatility of these respiration products complicates quantifying their rates of production in the field. Attempts to circumvent the challenges through closed system incubations, from which gases cannot escape, have been used to investigate bulk in situ geochemistry. Efforts towards mapping mechanistic linkages between geochemistry and microbiology have raised concern regarding sampling and incubation-induced perturbations. Microorganisms are impacted by oxygen exposure, increased temperatures and accumulation of metabolic products during handling, storage, and incubation. We probed the extent of these perturbations, and their influence on incubation results, using high-resolution geochemical and microbial gene-based community profiling of anaerobically incubated material from three wetland habitats across a permafrost peatland. We compared the original field samples to the material anaerobically incubated over 50 days. Bulk geochemistry and phylum-level microbiota in incubations largely reflected field observations, but divergence between field and incubations occurred in both geochemistry and lineage-level microbial composition when examined at closer resolution. Despite the changes in representative lineages over time, inferred metabolic function with regards to carbon cycling largely reproduced field results suggesting functional consistency. Habitat differences among the source materials remained the largest driver of variation in geochemical and microbial differences among the samples in both incubations and field results. While incubations may have limited usefulness for identifying specific mechanisms, they remain a viable tool for probing bulk-scale questions related to anaerobic C cycling, including CO 2 and CH 4 dynamics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data reduction considerations for spherical R-32(CH 2 F 2 )-air flame experiments

The burning velocities of mixtures of refrigerant R-32 (CH 2 F 2 ) with air over a range of equivalence ratios are studied via shadowgraph images of spherically expanding flames (SEFs) in a large, optically accessible spherical chamber at constant pressure. Numerical simulations of the 1-D, unsteady, spherical flames incorporating an optically thin radiation model and detailed kinetics accurately predict experimental results for a range of equivalence ratios. For these low burning velocity flames, the effects of stretch and radiation occur simultaneously and make extraction of the unstretched burning velocity from the experimental data difficult. Different data reduction approaches are shown to have large effects on the burning velocities inferred from the experiments and simulations. A new flame radius tracking approach for the experimental images is shown to provide improved agreement of the burned gas velocity variation with stretch predicted by the simulations and helps to compensate for mild flame distortion due to buoyancy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using Ensemble Data Assimilation to Estimate Transient Hydrologic Exchange Flow Under Highly Dynamic Flow Conditions

Abstract Quantifying dynamic hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) within river corridors that experience high‐frequency flow variations caused by dam regulations is important for understanding the biogeochemical processes at the river water and groundwater interfaces. Heat has been widely used as a tracer to infer steady‐state flow velocities through analytical solutions of heat transport defined by the diurnal temperature signals. Under sub‐daily dynamic flow conditions, however, such analytical solutions are not applicable due to the violation of their fundamental assumptions. In this study, we developed a data assimilation‐based approach to estimate the sub‐daily flux under highly dynamic flow conditions using multi‐depth temperature observations at a 5‐min resolution. If the hydraulic gradient is measured, Darcy's law was used to calculate the flux with permeability estimated from temperature responses below the riverbed. Otherwise, flux was estimated directly by assimilating multi‐depth temperature data at 1‐ or 2‐hr time intervals assuming one‐dimensional flow and heat transport governing equation. By comparing estimated fluxes with model‐generated synthetic truth, we demonstrated that both schemes have robust performance in estimating fluxes under highly dynamic flow conditions. This data assimilation‐based flux estimation method was able to capture the vertical sub‐daily fluxes using multi‐depth high‐resolution temperature data alone, even in the presence of multi‐dimensional flow. This approach has been successfully applied to real field temperature data collected at the Hanford site, which experiences highly dynamic HEFs. Our study shows the promise of adopting distributed 1‐D temperature monitoring to capture spatial and temporal exchange dynamics in river corridors at a watershed scale or beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

How fast can protons decay?

Current laboratory bounds imply that protons are extremely long-lived. However, this conclusion may not hold for all time and in all of space. We find that the proton lifetime can be ∼ 15 orders of magnitude shorter in the relatively recent past on Earth or at the present time elsewhere in the Milky Way. A number of terrestrial and astrophysical constraints are examined and potential signals are outlined. We also sketch possible models that could lead to spatial or temporal variations in the proton lifetime. A positive signal could be compelling evidence for a new long range force of nature, with important implications for the limitations of fundamental inferences based solely on laboratory measurements. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗