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At least 181 records · Page 10

The regulatory and transcriptional landscape associated with carbon utilization in a filamentous fungus

Filamentous fungi, such as Neurospora crassa , are very efficient in deconstructing plant biomass by the secretion of an arsenal of plant cell wall-degrading enzymes, by remodeling metabolism to accommodate production of secreted enzymes, and by enabling transport and intracellular utilization of plant biomass components. Although a number of enzymes and transcriptional regulators involved in plant biomass utilization have been identified, how filamentous fungi sense and integrate nutritional information encoded in the plant cell wall into a regulatory hierarchy for optimal utilization of complex carbon sources is not understood. Here, we performed transcriptional profiling of N. crassa on 40 different carbon sources, including plant biomass, to provide data on how fungi sense simple to complex carbohydrates. From these data, we identified regulatory factors in N. crassa and characterized one (PDR-2) associated with pectin utilization and one with pectin/hemicellulose utilization (ARA-1). Using in vitro DNA affinity purification sequencing (DAP-seq), we identified direct targets of transcription factors involved in regulating genes encoding plant cell wall-degrading enzymes. In particular, our data clarified the role of the transcription factor VIB-1 in the regulation of genes encoding plant cell wall-degrading enzymes and nutrient scavenging and revealed a major role of the carbon catabolite repressor CRE-1 in regulating the expression of major facilitator transporter genes. These data contribute to a more complete understanding of cross talk between transcription factors and their target genes, which are involved in regulating nutrient sensing and plant biomass utilization on a global level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Genomics and Functional Analysis of Carbohydrate Utilization Networks in Unicyanobacterial Consortia Derived from Hypersaline Lake Microbial Mats

Hot Lake is a meromictic, hypersaline lake located in Washington state, USA. It harbors a phototrophic microbial mat community stable in dramatic seasonal environmental changes. The complexity of natural community hinders to analyze metabolic interactions between its members. To manage this obstacle, unicyanobacterial consortia (UCC) were sampled from the community and sequenced. UCC is a microbial community in which one cyanobacterium serves as the sole primary producer of carbon sources to several heterotrophic bacteria. Recently available metagenomes for two UCC revealed a shared set of 19 microbial operational taxonomic units (OTU), whose individual genomes were reconstructed by co‐assembly and abundance profile binning. We used this genomic data and a comparative genomics approach to infer carbohydrate utilization pathways and their transcription regulation. We scanned all UCC proteomes against the KEGG Orthology, Pfam, GO and SEED databases to reveal genes potentially involved in sugar utilization. Then we analyzed the genomic and functional contexts of gene loci encoding the obtained proteins and reconstructed the respective metabolic pathways and transcriptional regulons. As result, we observed catabolic pathways for 32 various carbohydrates and their derivatives. Distribution of the inferred catabolic pathways has highly mosaic structure across the UCC genomes. The largest number of pathways was observed in two representatives of the Halomonas genus (14–15 pathways) and one Rhodobacteriaceae sp. (15 pathways). In other UCC genomes, we found up to 10 carbohydrate utilization pathways per genome. However in 7 genomes we didn't observe any pathway. The most widely distributed pathways in UCC were the alpha‐glucosides and the DeLey‐Doudoroff galactose utilization pathways. Both were found in 7 genomes. Majority of pathways are distributed among 1–3 genomes. The reconstructed catabolic pathways were partially validated by phenotypic analyses of UCC community members that were isolated in a pure culture. In the Rhodobacteriaceae sp., we found a novel catabolic pathway that was proposed to be involved in mannoheptulose utilization. To our knowledge, the proposed mannoheptulose catabolic pathway is the first case of a pathway for heptose utilization and will require further experimental validation. The identified pathways are potentially regulated by local transcription factors (TFs) that are often co‐localized with the respective sugar catabolic gene loci. For 63 out of the 80 identified TFs we identified their cognate DNA binding motifs and reconstructed regulons using the bioinformatics approach. Support or Funding Information This research was supported by the Genomic Science Program (GSP), Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and is a contribution of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Foundational Scientific Focus Area.

Leyn, Semen A.↗

Calculation of the Vertical Strata Load of Utility Tunnel Crossing Ground Fissure Zone

A ground fissure is a geological disaster in which the vertical dislocation of strata causes surface rupture. Ground fissures can cause extreme harm to the surface and underground buildings. Ground fissure activity can result in different settlement on the two sides of the strata, which will generate additional stress (pressure) that differs from the stress of the general stratum on underground structures across the ground fissure zone. It is essential to assess the effective stress of strata in the design of underground engineering structures across a ground fissure zone. The Xi’an ground fissure through a utility tunnel was focus of the research, and a physical model and data for oblique crossing of the 45° ground fissure were analyzed. A model of the utility tunnel structure was established, including the surrounding soil load as an active ground fissure environment. This model was used to calculate the vertical formation pressure of the overlying soil on the utility tunnel. A method to calculate the overlying load on the utility tunnel caused by ground fissure activity was proposed and compared with the calculation based on the A. Marston principle. The results showed that the ground fissure load calculation method based on the strata-holding effect can effectively calculate the earth pressure of the surrounding soil layer of the utility tunnel in the cross-ground fissure section. The results of this work provide guidance and reference value for the design of a utility tunnel in an area with the potential for a ground fissure.

Zhang, Dan↗

Utility-Scale Solar 2014. An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

Other than the nine Solar Energy Generation Systems (“SEGS”) parabolic trough projects built in the 1980s, virtually no large-scale or “utility-scale” solar projects – defined here to include any groundmounted photovoltaic (“PV”), concentrating photovoltaic (“CPV”), or concentrating solar thermal power (“CSP”) project larger than 5 MW AC – existed in the United States prior to 2007. By 2012 – just five years later – utility-scale had become the largest sector of the overall PV market in the United States, a distinction that was repeated in both 2013 and 2014 and that is expected to continue for at least the next few years. Over this same short period, CSP also experienced a bit of a renaissance in the United States, with a number of large new parabolic trough and power tower systems – some including thermal storage – achieving commercial operation. With this critical mass of new utility-scale projects now online and in some cases having operated for a number of years (generating not only electricity, but also empirical data that can be mined), the rapidly growing utility-scale sector is ripe for analysis. This report, the third edition in an ongoing annual series, meets this need through in-depth, annually updated, data-driven analysis of not just installed project costs or prices – i.e., the traditional realm of solar economics analyses – but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices from a large sample of utility-scale solar projects in the United States. Given its current dominance in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are presented where appropriate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Utility-Scale Solar 2015: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

The utility-scale solar sector—defined here to include any ground-mounted photovoltaic (“PV”), concentrating photovoltaic (“CPV”), or concentrating solar power (“CSP”) project that is larger than 5 MWAC in capacity—has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. It is expected to maintain its market-leading position for at least another five years, driven in part by December 2015’s three-year extension of the 30% federal investment tax credit (“ITC”) through 2019 (coupled with a favorable switch to a “start construction” rather than a “placed in service” eligibility requirement, and a gradual phase down of the credit to 10% by 2022). In fact, in 2016 alone, the utility-scale sector is projected to install more than twice as much new capacity as it ever has previously in a single year. This unprecedented boom makes it difficult, yet more important than ever, to stay abreast of the latest utility-scale market developments and trends. This report—the fourth edition in an ongoing annual series—is intended to help meet this need, by providing in-depth, annually updated, data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. Drawing on empirical project-level data from a wide range of sources, this report analyzes not just installed project costs or prices—i.e., the traditional realm of most solar economic analyses—but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices from a large sample of utility-scale solar projects throughout the United States. Given its current dominance in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are also presented where appropriate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Future of Transportation Electrification: Utility, Industry and Consumer Perspectives

Electric vehicles (EVs) today are a small part of the U.S. transportation fleet. Technological advancements, automotive industry investments and state policies are driving increased transportation electrification. Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects that by 2040, 55 percent of new sales of automobiles worldwide will be EVs. Increased transportation demand for electricity will require additional investments in the distribution system and will impact the bulk power system as load profiles change. At the same time, managed EV charging and discharging can make more efficient use of distribution system assets and increase grid flexibility. EVs also hold promise for lowering transportation costs and reducing air emissions. Infrastructure needs to electrify transportation across the United States far exceed current investment plans by EV charging companies, the public sector and others. Utilities are building “make-ready” infrastructure to ease development of public charging stations and offering rates tailored for EVs, and some utilities are directly investing in charging stations. The growth of EVs raises a number of questions for policymakers and others: How much public charging infrastructure will be needed, where should it be built and when will it be used? What role should utilities play in developing the infrastructure, compared to EV charging companies?How should charging infrastructure costs be allocated among utility customers? How should electricity rates be set to encourage efficient grid use and minimize negative grid impacts? How are states preparing for increasing electrification of the transportation sector? This report in the Future Electric Utility Regulation series from Berkeley Lab, tackles these questions and more. The report approaches the issues from three perspectives: utilities, the EV charging industry and consumers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Best Practices in Promoting Utility-based Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy: Policy Options for Ukraine

The report summarizes best practices in utility obligations and energy efficiency resource standards, drawing lessons that can be helpful for the Ukrainian government in its ongoing reform efforts. This report describes the experience of the United States and European Union member states with instruments such as energy efficiency obligations, energy efficiency resource standards, and renewable portfolio standards. This report consists of two parts. The first part covers the utility-based energy efficiency requirements (called energy efficiency obligations in Europe and energy efficiency resource standards in the U.S.). Structurally and conceptually, energy efficiency obligations and energy efficiency resource standards are similar even though they carry different names in different countries. These mechanisms place obligations on utilities to find energy savings equivalent to a certain percentage of their energy sales; depending on the program design, utilities can invest in end-use efficiency with their customers, or purchase energy savings from third parties. Some schemes also allow for trading of the energy savings. The report provides an overall description of these mechanisms, key elements as well as best practices in program design. The second part of the report provides a brief overview of U.S. renewable portfolio standards, which are structurally similar to utilities’ energy efficiency requirements, but for renewable energy. This part starts with a general overview of promotion of utility renewable energy requirements and proceeds with a description of the main components of the scheme.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Utilizing FLEX Equipment for O&M Cost Reduction in Nuclear Power Plants

There are many ways of reducing the O&M costs; this work presents an innovative framework of reducing O&M costs by utilizing the onsite Flex equipment at NPPs. Flex strategies were postulated by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in the wake of Fukushima Dai-ichi accident to address beyond-design-basis accidents and improve plant flexibility. Onsite Flex includes equipment such as portable pumps, generators, batteries, compressors, and other supporting equipment or tools, all stored in a dedicated and secure building designed to withstand external hazards. In the past years, several NPPs have invested in procuring and maintaining the onsite Flex asset that stands unutilized most of the time. Recently there have been active efforts to develop strategies through which NPPs can take credit for the Flex equipment. This work focuses on identifying areas where Flex equipment can be utilized during normal plant operation and develop a framework that would aide in reduction of O&M costs without impacting plant safety. Earlier work in the current project, published in INL/EXT 18 51531, had presented the risk- and cost-analysis framework for utilizing FLEX portable equipment during technical specification required shutdown due to component failure. The licensee event report (LER) database of the NRC shows that the commercial NPPs in the US reported 86 technical specification required shutdowns since year 2010. When a component failure or unavailability leads to a technical specification required shutdown, the NPPs suffers both direct costs in terms of loss of revenue arising from the loss of generation and indirect costs in form of reporting and inspection required by the NRC. The earlier work developed the following framework and implemented it on a demonstration probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model to utilize the portable Flex equipment when a component failure could potentially lead to a technical specification required shutdown: 1. Identify the components, the failure or unavailability of which would result in a 10 CFR 50.73(a)(2)(i)A-reportability requirement, postulated by the NRC for technical specification required shutdown to be reported in NRC’s LER database. 2. Identify the Flex equipment that can be utilized as a standby to the failed component. 3. Develop a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model that incorporates the Flex equipment within the current plant PRA model. 4. Perform PRA calculations to determine change in core damage frequency and change in risk-informed allowable outage time. 5. Perform cost-benefit analysis to determine the economic feasibility of implementing the Flex equipment The current work, presented in this report, implement the above framework in a plant PRA model obtained from a US commercial nuclear power plant by prestaging onsite FLEX equipment as a redundancy to the existing auxiliary feedwater system, and pre-coordinating with offsite FLEX centers. The new configuration increased the allowable outage time by about a fifty percent overall for the diesel generator being out of service. The benefits to NPPs of utilizing the Flex equipment during normal operations, and performing the PRA developed in this work, include: 1. A risk-informed plant shutdown alternative to the current technical specification required shutdown. 2. Extension of allowable outage time to initiate technical specification required shutdown. 3. Reducing economic impact of component failure, avoiding plant shutdown, and maximizing generation. 4. Save the direct and indirect costs associated with technical specification required shutdown.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A combined biological and chemical flue gas utilization system towards carbon dioxide capture from coal-fired power plants (Final Report)

Photosynthetic algal cultivation has been intensively studied for CO 2 capture and utilization for several decades. The footprint for using algae to capture CO 2 emitted from carbon-intensive industrial processes (power plants, cement plants, and fermentation processes) is extremely large, which creates serious technical and economic hurdles that must be cleared if algal technologies are to be commercially implemented. Fortunately, algal biomass is rich in proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids, providing a good chemical source for organic absorbents and other value-added chemical feedstocks. In particular, amino acids from algal protein can be used to generate amino acid salt solutions that have been proven to be effective for capturing CO 2 . In order to take advantage of both algal cultivation and biomass utilization, the goal of the proposed project is to develop a combined biological and chemical system for coal-fired power plants for sequestering CO 2 in biological absorbents and generating value-added products. This approach significantly reduces the land and energy footprint of CO 2 capture, and minimizes capital and operational expenses. Three specific objectives are targeted: 1) optimizing the growth of the selected algal strain to maximize biomass accumulation from the coal-fired flue gas; 2) developing a cascade biomass utilization to produce amino acid absorbents, polyurethanes, biodiesel, and methane; and 3) conducting techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) of the proposed process. Three key technical outcomes were achieved: (1) With the selected robust algal strain and unique photobioreactor design, long-term culture stability can be extended, and algal biomass productivity reached 0.5 g dry biomass/L/day year-round at a biomass concentration of 1.2 g/L in the pilot photobioreactor; (2) The biomass utilization process led to complete utilization of the algal biomass to produce amino acid salt absorbent, polyurethanes, and methane; and (3) The combined biological and chemical flue gas utilization process concluded a technically and economically feasible commercial-scale system that completely captures CO 2 in coal-fired flue gas with greatly reduced energy consumption.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

A Snapshot of EV-Specific Rate Designs Among U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities

EV-specific electric utility rates have a profound effect on the underlying economics motivating EV adoption. State utility regulators and electric utilities play a critical role in approving and designing rates, respectively. However, the nascence of the EV industry has resulted in regulators’ and utilities’ having very limited experience with EV-specific rate designs. This suggests there could be substantial benefit from efforts intended to provide a better understanding of how EV-specific rates are designed presently in the United States. To meet that need, Berkeley Lab researchers, with support from E9 Insight, developed a database of piloted, proposed, and offered rates among U.S. investor-owned utilities (IOUs) between 2012 and 2022. The database is comprised of 217 electric utility retail rates from IOUs in 38 states and the District of Columbia that either required proof of EV ownership or were otherwise designed for the purposes of reselling energy for use in EV charging (i.e., EV-specific rates). The analysis of the database identifies the EV-specific rate designs currently observed, infers a number of policy-driven objectives, and suggests a number of next steps for future research.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Electric Utility Distribution Costs: Scoping Study on Trends, Drivers, and Possible Response Strategies [Slides]

This scoping study synthesizes information that will help stakeholders understand the scope, scale, and drivers of recent increases in investor-owned utility (IOU) expenditures on local distribution power grids, while providing regulators and other decision-makers with potential strategies to keep electricity bills down. The study includes five distinct components. Drawing first on data from FERC Form 1, it summarizes key trends in past and recent IOU distribution costs. Next, through a review of a sample of distribution-system plans, it characterizes material drivers of planned distribution expenditures. Ultimately, regulators must approve cost recovery for IOU expenditures, including those for the distribution system. The study therefore also: examines trends in utility requests and regulatory approvals related to changes in retail rates and return on equity; identifies areas where utility shareholder and customer incentives may be misaligned; and develops a menu of options that state regulators might consider to optimize distribution system expenditures. Some of the key findings include: - IOU distribution spending at a national level has grown by 6%/yr since 2014 in real dollar terms, 4x faster than in the prior 20 years and consisting mostly of capital (not operating) expenditure. - On a per-kWh basis, increases in IOU distribution costs since 2014 represent over 30% of the overall national-average increase in retail electricity rates. - Regional spending growth has ranged from 2-8%/yr, with larger estimated rate impacts in CAISO, then NYISO & ISO-NE, and then the Southeast, MISO & PJM (see figure). - Some utilities are planning for significantly increased distribution system spending. Planned spending on managing the existing system (asset replacement, safety & reliability, and resilience are all important drivers) exceeds that for capacity expansion. - IOU rate increase requests ($18 billion in 2025) and public utility commission (PUC) approval levels (average of 64% of requested amounts from 2021-2025) have recently hit multi-decadal highs. - PUCs in New England and the Southeast have recently approved a greater fraction of rate requests (>75%, on average) than in ther regions, while PUCs in California and the Southeast have generally authorized higher equity returns than in other regions. - Regulators have many tools to tackle potential misalignments between utility and customer interests and, more specifically, to optimize and reduce distribution costs. Shorter-term options include those related to return on equity, capital structure, depreciation, trackers, construction work in progress, and securitization. Longer-term options include performance-based regulation and a wide variety of planning-related requirements. All options embed important tradeoffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design study of wind turbines, 50 kW to 3000 kW for electric utility applications: Executive summary

Preliminary designs of low power (50 to 500 kW) and high power (500 to 3000 kW) wind generator systems (WGS) for electric utility applications were developed. These designs provide the bases for detail design, fabrication, and experimental demonstration testing of these units at selected utility sites. Several feasible WGS configurations were evaluated, and the concept offering the lowest energy cost potential and minimum technical risk for utility applications was selected. The selected concept was optimized utilizing a parametric computer program prepared for this purpose. The utility requirements evaluation task examined the economic, operational and institutional factors affecting the WGS in a utility environment, and provided additional guidance for the preliminary design effort. Results of the conceptual design task indicated that a rotor operating at constant speed, driving an AC generator through a gear transmission is the most cost effective WGS configuration.

Source record↗

Utility usage forecasting

The computer creates a utility demand forecast model for weather parameters by receiving a plurality of utility parameter values, wherein each received utility parameter value corresponds to a weather parameter value. Determining that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding received utility parameter values. Determining one or more utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values. Creating a model which correlates the received and the determined utility parameter values with the corresponding weather parameters values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Enhancing Acetogen Formate Utilization to Value-Added Products 2.3.2.112

Electricity from a diversity of sources is increasingly utilized due to its low cost. However, since much of this energy is intermittently generated, there is a mismatch between energy demand and supply. Cheap intermittent energy offers opportunities to utilize this energy and generate value-added chemicals. Low-cost electricity can be used to chemically reduce CO2 to formate and methanol, which then can be upgraded to useful chemicals. To utilize formate for production of valuable chemicals, we decided to focus on Clostridium ljungdahlii as our host organism due to several advantages: it can already utilize formate under some conditions, it has the most developed genetic system for acetogens, and is a model organism for the Wood-Ljungdahl Pathway, the most efficient anaerobic carbon fixation pathway. Formate is a feedstock for a variety of bacteria and has several advantages to gaseous electrochemical products, including ease of storage and miscibility in liquid. Acetogens naturally take C1 compounds and convert them to higher chain products through acetyl-CoA, which is a precursor to many valuable products including carboxylic acids and alcohols. For this project, as a proof of concept, we are focusing on converting formate to butanol. This task primarily relies on two parts: improving formate utilization and installing a butanol pathway. First, we characterized the conditions of native formate utilization in C. ljungdahlii. We also have begun working on genetic tools to delete and express genes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Debate on Vehicle Triad: Examining the Utilization Patterns of Gasoline, Hybrid, and Electric Vehicles in Households

Light-duty vehicles contribute to approximately half of the transport sector's emissions, a sector challenging to decarbonize owing to the autocentric nature of many American cities. The U.S. Department of Transportation's blueprint outlines three key decarbonization strategies: increasing convenience, improving efficiency, and transitioning to zero-emission vehicles. Among these, the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) offers a promising opportunity to reduce emissions from light-duty vehicles, which are predominantly gasoline-powered. Although substantial literature identifies and addresses factors influencing EV adoption, understanding their utilization within households who own vehicles with mixed fuel types is crucial for accurately assessing their environmental benefits. This paper addresses two key questions: (a) Are EVs utilized more, equally, or less than gasoline vehicles (GVs) and (b) What factors influence mileage utilization patterns in households with multiple vehicle fuel types, accounting for substitution and complementary effects? Analysis of 2022 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data indicates that EVs are utilized more than GVs within households that own multiple mixed fuel fleets. Findings reveal that households with a higher number of younger individuals and multiple workers use EVs more extensively, and those with older adults and larger households with multiple vehicles tend to use GVs more. Rural households have higher use of hybrid vehicles (HVs). The study identifies a substitution effect between EVs and GVs, while complementary relationship between HVs and EVs, suggesting nuances in vehicle utilization patterns. This nuanced understanding of vehicle utilization patterns informs the development of targeted policies and infrastructure investments to optimize household transportation efficiency.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Laboratory Evaluation of Commercial Utility Microgrid Controller Test Results

The functional requirements of many microgrid controllers (MGCs) are expanding and evolving to meet growing utility and community needs. At a high level, the utility microgrid controller serves resilience and reliability use cases by coordinating transitions between grid-connected and islanded states and by managing the system during island operations. This includes control scenarios that require the microgrid controller to use flexible microgrid boundaries, maintain energy balance, coordinate with peer systems, and manage grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) distributed energy resources (DER). In order to evaluate these functional enhancements, microgrid controller test plans must also be developed to ensure that the implemented controllers provide adequate performance. This report provides MGC test plans for both island operation and transition functions. The functions covered in this report include feeder level energy management, island constraint management, secondary voltage and frequency control, black start, and synchronized reconnection. This second edition update also includes results from applying the tests to a commercial utility microgrid controller. These results evaluate the performance and reliability of the controller under various operational scenarios. It identifies specific areas where the controller excels and highlights gaps that need to be addressed for future enhancements. The application of these test plans on real-world system behavior provides insights on commercial equipment readiness for field deployment. These test cases can be applied to utility-managed microgrid controllers that exclusively manage utility-owned equipment; the tests also apply to third-party managed microgrid controllers that coordinate with utility- and customer-owned equipment. The report can also be used by technology developers and project developers in industry to evaluate control strategies and performance characteristics for community microgrid controllers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning

Forecasts of electricity consumption and peak demand over time horizons of one or two decades are a key element in electric utilities’ meeting their core objective and obligation to ensure reliable and affordable electricity supplies for their customers while complying with a range of energy and environmental regulations and policies. These forecasts are an important input to integrated resource planning (IRP) processes involving utilities, regulators, and other stake-holders. Despite their importance, however, there has been little analysis of long term utility load forecasting accuracy. We conduct a retrospective analysis of long term load forecasts on twelve Western U. S. electric utilities in the mid-2000s to find that most overestimated both energy consumption and peak demand growth. A key reason for this was the use of assumptions that led to an overestimation of economic growth. We find that the complexity of forecast methods and the accuracy of these forecasts are mildly correlated. In addition, sensitivity and risk analysis of load growth and its implications for capacity expansion were not well integrated with subsequent implementation. As a result, we review changes in the utilities load forecasting methods over the subsequent decade, and discuss the policy implications of long term load forecast inaccuracy and its underlying causes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing the Relative Climate Impact of Carbon Utilization for Concrete, Chemical, and Mineral Production

Estimates show that 6.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) can be captured and utilized across three pathways, concrete, chemical, and minerals, by 2050. However, it is difficult to compare the climate benefit across these three carbon capture and utilization (CCU) pathways to determine the most effective use of captured CO2. The life cycle assessment methods to evaluate the climate benefit of CCU chemicals should additionally account for the change in material properties of concrete due to CO2 utilization. Furthermore, with most CO2 utilization technologies being in the early stages of research and development, the uncertainty and variability in process and inventory data present a significant challenge in evaluating the climate benefit. We present a stochastically determined climate return on investment (ROI) metric to rank and prioritize CO2 utilization across 20 concrete, chemical and mineral pathways based on the realized climate benefit. We show that two concrete pathways, which use CO2 during concrete mixing, and two chemical pathways, which produce formic acid through hydrogenation of CO2 and carbon monoxide through dry reforming of methane, generate the greatest climate ROI and are the only CCU pathways with a higher likelihood of generating a climate benefit than a climate burden.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗