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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

A Framework for Organizing Current and Future Electric Utility Regulatory and Business Models

Many regulators, utilities, customer groups, and other stakeholders are reevaluating existing regulatory models and the roles and financial implications for electric utilities in the context of today’s environment of increasing distributed energy resource (DER) penetrations, forecasts of significant T&D investment, and relatively flat or negative utility sales growth. When this is coupled with predictions about fewer grid-connected customers (i.e., customer defection), there is growing concern about the potential for serious negative impacts on the regulated utility business model. Among states engaged in these issues, the range of topics under consideration is broad. Most of these states are considering whether approaches that have been applied historically to mitigate the impacts of previous “disruptions” to the regulated utility business model (e.g., energy efficiency) as well as to align utility financial interests with increased adoption of such “disruptive technologies” (e.g., shareholder incentive mechanisms, lost revenue mechanisms) are appropriate and effective in the present context. A handful of states are presently considering more fundamental changes to regulatory models and the role of regulated utilities in the ownership, management, and operation of electric delivery systems (e.g., New York “Reforming the Energy Vision” proceeding).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Utility-Scale Solar 2016: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2016, the utility-scale sector installed more than 2.5 times as much new capacity as did the residential and commercial sectors combined, and is expected to maintain its dominant position for at least another five years. This report—the fifth edition in an ongoing annual series—provides data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. We analyze not just installed project prices, but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement ("PPA") prices from a large sample of utility-scale PV and CSP projects throughout the United States. Highlights from this year's edition include the following: Installation Trends: The use of solar tracking devices dominated 2016 installations, at nearly 80% of all new capacity. In a reflection of the ongoing geographic expansion of the market beyond California and the Southwest, the median long-term average insolation level at newly built project sites declined again in 2016. While new fixed-tilt projects are now seen predominantly in less-sunny regions, tracking projects are increasingly pushing into these same regions. The median inverter loading ratio has stabilized in 2016 at 1.3 for both tracking and fixed-tilt projects. Installed Prices: Median installed PV project prices within a sizable sample have fallen by two-thirds since the 2007-2009 period, to $2.2/WAC (or $1.7/WDC) for projects completed in 2016. The lowest 20th percentile of projects within our 2016 sample were priced at or below $2.0/WAC, with the lowest-priced projects around $1.5/WAC. Overall price dispersion across the entire sample and across geographic regions decreased significantly in 2016. Operation and Maintenance (“O&M”) Costs: What limited empirical O&M cost data are publicly available suggest that PV O&M costs were in the neighborhood of $18/kWAC-year, or $8/MWh, in 2016. These numbers include only those costs incurred to directly operate and maintain the generating plant. Capacity Factors: The cumulative net AC capacity factors of individual PV projects range widely, from 15.4% to 35.5%, with a sample median of 26.3%. This project-level variation is based on a number of factors, including the strength of the solar resource at the project site, whether the array is mounted at a fixed-tilt or on a tracking mechanism, the inverter loading ratio, degradation, and curtailment. Changes in at least the first three of these factors drove mean capacity factors higher from 2010- to 2013-vintage projects, where they’ve remained fairly steady among both 2014- and 2015-vintage projects as an ongoing increase in the prevalence of tracking has been offset by a build-out of lower resource sites. Meanwhile, several of the newer CSP projects in the United States are struggling to match long-term performance expectations. PPA Prices: Driven by lower installed project prices and improving capacity factors, levelized PPA prices for utility-scale PV have fallen dramatically over time. Most recent PPAs in our sample are priced at or below $50/MWh levelized, with a few priced as aggressively as ~$30/MWh. Though impressive in pace and scale, these falling PPA prices have been offset to some degree by declining wholesale market value within high penetration markets like California, where in 2016 a MWh of solar generation was worth just 83% of a MWh of flat, round-the-clock generation. At the end of 2016, there were at least 121.4 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation. The growth within these queues is widely distributed across all regions of the country: California and the Southeast each account for 23% of the 83.3 GW of solar that first entered the queues in 2016, followed by the Northeast (17%), the Southwest (16%), the Central region (12%), Texas (6%) and the Northwest (3%). The widening geographic distribution of solar projects is a clear sign that the utility-scale market is maturing and expanding outside of its traditional high-insolation comfort zones.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Final Report on Community Solar Design Models for Consumer, Industry, & Utility Success

Since the inception of the first community solar program in 2006, a number of different utility, solar industry and consumer driven community solar program models have emerged across the country with varying regulatory and solar market frameworks behind them. There is little consistency in how programs are administered, participant benefits are assigned, and customers are charged for participation. Further, while it is regularly speculated that community solar programs meet the needs of customers, no such consumer research has been completed against different community solar program models. This collaborative research effort addressed three primary issues: Program design models are numerous and evolving, with varying degrees of applicability across different state policy, utility regulatory, and solar market types. The agents, transaction methods, and accruing costs and benefits are highly variable and largely built on anecdotally successful model evolution. ‘Community solar’ (shared/group solar, solar gardens, etc.) has become a catch-all concept that means different things to different stakeholders, limiting constructive program development and growth. Everything from green pricing programs to remote net metering to metering aggregation has been framed as community solar. Consumer research on individual concepts and program models has been done, but no comprehensive and comparative market research on the broader design models and attributes has been performed. SEPA’s collaborative research effort on Community Solar Design Models for Consumer, Industry, & Utility Success is premised on the principle that greater standardization of community solar models and better understanding of consumer interests are key underpinnings of increased community solar deployment. Utilizing a cross-sectional multi-stakeholder working group, as well as focus groups and surveys, webinars, targeted outreach, and other tools, this project aims to expand the community solar knowledge base, facilitate information exchange, identify opportunities for standardization and improvement, determine what consumers’ interests are and how best to message to them, promote the research results within the solar and utility industries, and advance key opportunities for strategic deployment plans for community solar. A summary of these key takeaways/lessons learned during the grant period include: Siting of system should be evaluated up-front in the process Engage stakeholders collaboratively and early to help ensure the best chance for a successful program IT/billing departments must have a seat at the design table Establish upfront target objectives with respect to residential and commercial program access levels helps ensure program success Balance trade-offs to manage utility and developer risk with customer participation carefully to optimize pricing and sizing the program offering Over the course of the 42 month grant period, SEPA and its project team conducted a series of activities all designed to accelerate the number and size of community solar programs across the country. These activities included: Community Solar Program Design Models (2 reports) – SEPA, in collaboration with its projects team, the Coalition for Community Solar Access, and over 60 administrators of actual community solar programs, developed two reports providing hard data on the developments of community solar. These reports touched on program performance, quantity and type of programs, and program design steps, among other aspects. The reports collectively received over 2000 unique downloads. Market Research Report – SEPA, in collaboration with The Shelton Group, conducted a series of national surveys and focus groups to identify what customers were looking for in a community solar offering. The resulting report, “What the Community Solar Customer Wants”, received over 1,000 unique downloads. Technical Assistance Projects – SEPA supported 8 organizations who were pursuing community solar programs. Based on this support, over 5.7 MWs of new solar capacity have been developed. Technical Assistance Case Studies – SEPA developed two case studies detailing the technical assistance work in Fremont, NE Department of Utilities and the public power arm of Minster Ohio. These two reports have received 1,002 unique downloads. Webinar – SEPA hosted two webinars on community solar which collectively received 743 participants. The webinars focused on disseminating the findings of the research conducted under this project, as well as the research conducted in separate solar market pathways projects. Community Solar Design Workshops – 120 registrants learned about the trends in community solar and participated a business case exercise to design their own programs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Gaseous Carbon Waste Streams Utilization Status and Research Needs

In the quest to mitigate the buildup of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, researchers and policymakers have increasingly turned their attention to techniques for capturing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, either from the locations where they are emitted or directly from the atmosphere. Once captured, these gases can be stored or put to use. While both carbon storage and carbon utilization have costs, utilization offers the opportunity to recover some of the cost and even generate economic value. While current carbon utilization projects operate at a relatively small scale, some estimates suggest the market for waste carbon-derived products could grow to hundreds of billions of dollars within a few decades, utilizing several thousand teragrams of waste carbon gases per year. Gaseous Carbon Waste Streams Utilization: Status and Research Needs assesses research and development needs relevant to understanding and improving the commercial viability of waste carbon utilization technologies and defines a research agenda to address key challenges. The report is intended to help inform decision making surrounding the development and deployment of waste carbon utilization technologies under a variety of circumstances, whether motivated by a goal to improve processes for making carbon-based products, to generate revenue, or to achieve environmental goals.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benefit-Cost Analysis for Utility-Facing Grid Modernization Investments: Trends, Challenges, and Considerations

In recent years, many electric utilities have submitted grid modernization plans for review by state public utility commissions. A central objective of these plans is to demonstrate that grid modernization investments will provide net benefits to customers, be reasonable and be in the public interest. The plans typically include some form of benefit-cost analysis, but the assumptions, methodologies and frameworks vary considerably between utilities. This report: -Describes utility-facing technologies and projects for modernizing distribution systems, including interdependencies of grid components -Highlights benefit-cost considerations related to grid modernization -Summarizes recent trends in benefit-cost analysis for grid modernization based on a review of 21 plans by U.S. electric utilities -Discusses challenges state public utility commissions face in reviewing utility plans and provides options for addressing challenges

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Resilience Planning Landscape for Communities and Electric Utilities

Synapse Energy Economics has conducted structured interviews to better characterize the current landscape of resilience planning within and across jurisdictions. Synapse interviewed representatives of a diverse group of communities and their electric utilities. The resulting case studies span geographies and utility regulatory structures and represent a range of threats. They also vary in terms of population density and size. This report summarizes our approach and the findings gleaned from these conversations. All the communities and utilities we interviewed see increased interest in and commitment of resources for energy-related resilience. The risks and consequences these communities and utilities faced in the past, face now, and will face in the future drove them to improve engagement, advance processes, further decision-making, and in many cases invest in projects. While no process used by communities and utilities was the same, the different processes used by communities and utilities allowed each one to make progress in its own way. Several approaches are emerging that can provide good models for other communities and utilities with an interest in improving resilience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Opportunities and Challenges to Capturing Distributed Battery Value via Retail Utility Rates and Programs

Distributed battery deployment is increasing with advanced metering, control, and communication technologies, leaving electric utilities with an under-utilized, flexible grid resource in aggregate. Rates can reflect locational and temporal prices while utility incentive-based programs allow DERs to provide direct grid services. However, utilities must balance accurately reflecting dynamic grid conditions versus simple and feasible design that encourages customer participation. Currently, most rates and incentive-based programs are simple, but as penetration of DER and advanced controls increase, dynamic designs could become prevalent. Utilities could encourage providing multiple services to optimize distributed battery dispatch and value streams, however, challenges persist when stacking services across distribution and bulk systems. A DER committed to multiple discrete services concurrently necessitates coordination between operators and a clear hierarchy of commitments. One way to address this is to separate commitments by time or capacity. For services that follow cyclic, predictable patterns, or those that are peak driven with predictability, an operator could ensure sufficient state of charge for participation, leaving time where a distributed battery could otherwise provide different services by segmenting participation temporally. To provide continuous or unexpected services, a battery operator may use state of charge management to reserve some percentage of the battery and segment participation by capacity. Macroeconomic trends, load patterns, generation profiles, and grid configurations drive variation in value and the subsequent implications for utility offerings and how a customer might participate. As distributed battery adoption increases, both regulators and utilities will need to ensure no adverse grid impacts and encourage provision of societal value beyond the customer domain.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging the Gap on Data and Analysis for Distribution System Planning: Information That Utilities Can Provide Regulators, State Energy Offices and Other Stakeholders

Electric utilities conduct planning annually to ensure their distribution system meets technical standards, policies, and regulations; addresses forecasted grid conditions; satisfies customer needs; and advances utility priorities. The plan identifies grid deficiencies, analyzes potential solutions, and prioritizes capital investments and other expenditures. About 20 U.S. states and jurisdictions require regulated utilities to file some type of distribution system plan with the public utility commission for review. Requirements for sharing distribution system data and analyses vary widely, from few specific requirements to a detailed list of information that must be provided. While utilities conduct extensive analysis to develop distribution system plans, in most jurisdictions regulators and stakeholders do not know what data are available and how the utility uses the data in planning and investing. This report aims to bridge the gap by increasing understanding of the types of data and analyses utilities employ to develop distribution system plans and how the information affects their decision-making. The report describes information that states and stakeholders can ask for related to 11 data categories: -Forecasting loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) -Scenario analysis -Worst-performing circuits -Asset management strategy -Hosting capacity analysis -Value of DERs -Grid needs assessment -Cost-effectiveness framework for investments -Distribution system investment strategy and implementation -Geotargeted programs -Non-wires alternatives procurements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1976

Electric utility companies and geothermal power

The requirements of the electric utility industry as the primary potential market for geothermal energy are analyzed, based on a series of structured interviews with utility companies and financial institution executives. The interviews were designed to determine what information and technologies would be required before utilities would make investment decisions in favor of geothermal energy, the time frame in which the information and technologies would have to be available, and the influence of the governmental politics. The paper describes the geothermal resources, electric utility industry, its structure, the forces influencing utility companies, and their relationship to geothermal energy. A strategy for federal stimulation of utility investment in geothermal energy is suggested. Possibilities are discussed for stimulating utility investment through financial incentives, amelioration of institutional barriers, and technological improvements.

Pivirotto, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Scheduling for Parallel Supercomputing: A Historical Perspective of Achievable Utilization

The NAS facility has operated parallel supercomputers for the past 11 years, including the Intel iPSC/860, Intel Paragon, Thinking Machines CM-5, IBM SP-2, and Cray Origin 2000. Across this wide variety of machine architectures, across a span of 10 years, across a large number of different users, and through thousands of minor configuration and policy changes, the utilization of these machines shows three general trends: (1) scheduling using a naive FIFO first-fit policy results in 40-60% utilization, (2) switching to the more sophisticated dynamic backfilling scheduling algorithm improves utilization by about 15 percentage points (yielding about 70% utilization), and (3) reducing the maximum allowable job size further increases utilization. Most surprising is the consistency of these trends. Over the lifetime of the NAS parallel systems, we made hundreds, perhaps thousands, of small changes to hardware, software, and policy, yet, utilization was affected little. In particular these results show that the goal of achieving near 100% utilization while supporting a real parallel supercomputing workload is unrealistic.

Jones, James Patton↗
NASA NTRS2000

Expected Utility Distributions for Flexible, Contingent Execution

This paper presents a method for using expected utility distributions in the execution of flexible, contingent plans. A utility distribution maps the possible start times of an action to the expected utility of the plan suffix starting with that action. The contingent plan encodes a tree of possible courses of action and includes flexible temporal constraints and resource constraints. When execution reaches a branch point, the eligible option with the highest expected utility at that point in time is selected. The utility distributions make this selection sensitive to the runtime context, yet still efficient. Our approach uses predictions of action duration uncertainty as well as expectations of resource usage and availability to determine when an action can execute and with what probability. Execution windows and probabilities inevitably change as execution proceeds, but such changes do not invalidate the cached utility distributions, thus, dynamic updating of utility information is minimized.

Bresina, John L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Incorporating energy justice into utility-scale photovoltaic deployment: A policy framework

Utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) installations made up 77 GW (6%) of installed capacity in the United States, as of the end of 2021. This will grow to more than 500 GW by 2050 under a mid-case projection or more than 800 GW if solar costs decline more rapidly. While utility-scale PV is projected to grow rapidly, to date, unlike energy efficiency or distributed PV, utility-scale PV has not been used to provide substantial financial benefits to underserved communities, either through ownership, financing of assets, or direct electricity bill reduction. We assess two mechanisms through which utility-scale PV could benefit underserved communities. We find that while a framework for direct electricity bill reduction can be meaningful to customers, this mechanism falls short of providing restorative justice via wealth creation for minority-owned businesses. In contrast, we find that a framework for procurement of utility-scale PV by public and private entities from PV projects that are financed, owned, and/or developed by minority-owned businesses can provide this restorative justice benefit, and thereby facilitate an equitable energy transition. We conclude with concrete recommendations for new policies and programs to ensure that the benefits of utility-scale PV systems are distributed to underserved communities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Is $50/MWh solar for real? Falling project prices and rising capacity factors drive utility-scale PV toward economic competitiveness

Recently announced low-priced power purchase agreements (PPAs) for US utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) projects suggest $50/MWh solar might be viable under certain conditions. To explore this possibility, this paper draws on an increasing wealth of empirical data to analyze trends in three of the most important PPA price drivers: upfront installed project prices, operations, and maintenance (O&M) costs, and capacity factors. Average installed prices among a sample of utility-scale PV projects declined by more than one third (from 5.8/W AC to 3.7/WAC) from the 2007–2009 period through 2013, even as costlier systems with crystalline-silicon modules, sun tracking, and higher inverter loading ratios (ILRs) have constituted an increasing proportion of total utility-scale PV capacity (all values shown here are in 2013 dollars). Actual and projected O&M costs from a very small sample of projects appear to range from $20–$40/kW AC -year. Furthermore, the average net capacity factor is 30% for projects installed in 2012, up from 24% for projects installed in 2010, owing to better solar resources, higher ILRs, and greater use of tracking among the more recent projects. Based on these trends, a pro-forma financial model suggests that $50/MWh utility-scale PV is achievable using a combination of aggressive-but-achievable technical and financial input parameters (including receipt of the 30% federal investment tax credit). Although the US utility-scale PV market is still young, the rapid progress in the key metrics documented in this paper has made PV a viable competitor against other utility-scale renewable generators, and even conventional peaking generators, in certain regions of the country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Regulatory and ratemaking approaches to mitigate financial impacts of net-metered PV on utilities and ratepayers

The financial interests of U.S. utilities are poorly aligned with customer-sited solar photovoltaics (PV) under traditional regulation. Customer-sited PV, especially under a net-metering arrangement, may result in revenue erosion and lost earnings opportunities for utility shareholders as well as increases in average retail rates for utility ratepayers. Regulators are considering alternative regulatory and ratemaking approaches to mitigate these financial impacts. We performed here a scoping analysis using a financial model to quantify the efficacy of mitigation approaches in reducing financial impacts of customer-sited PV on utility shareholders and ratepayers. We find that impacts can be mitigated through various incremental changes to utility regulatory and business models, though the efficacy varies considerably depending on design and particular utility circumstances. Based on this analysis, we discuss tradeoffs policymakers should consider, which ultimately might need to be resolved within broader policy contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Utility functions and resource management in an oversubscribed heterogeneous computing environment

We model an oversubscribed heterogeneous computing system where tasks arrive dynamically and a scheduler maps the tasks to machines for execution. The environment and workloads are based on those being investigated by the Extreme Scale Systems Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Utility functions that are designed based on specifications from the system owner and users are used to create a metric for the performance of resource allocation heuristics. Each task has a time-varying utility (importance) that the enterprise will earn based on when the task successfully completes execution. We design multiple heuristics, which include a technique to drop low utility-earning tasks, to maximize the total utility that can be earned by completing tasks. The heuristics are evaluated using simulation experiments with two levels of oversubscription. The results show the benefit of having fast heuristics that account for the importance of a task and the heterogeneity of the environment when making allocation decisions in an oversubscribed environment. Furthermore, the ability to drop low utility-earning tasks allow the heuristics to tolerate the high oversubscription as well as earn significant utility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Recovery Act: Analysis of Low-Temperature Utilization of Geothermal Resources (Final Technical Report)

Full realization of the potential of what might be considered “low-grade” geothermal resources will require that we examine many more uses for the heat than traditional electricity generation. To demonstrate that geothermal energy truly has the potential to be a national energy source we will be designing, assessing, and evaluating innovative uses for geothermal-produced water such as hybrid biomass-geothermal cogeneration of electricity and district heating and efficiency improvements to the use of cellulosic biomass in addition to utilization of geothermal in district heating for community redevelopment projects. The objectives of this project were: 1) to perform a techno-economic analysis of the integration and utilization potential of low-temperature geothermal sources. Innovative uses of low-enthalpy geothermal water were designed and examined for their ability to offset fossil fuels and decrease CO 2 emissions. 2) To perform process optimizations and economic analyses of processes that can utilize low-temperature geothermal fluids. These processes included electricity generation using biomass and district heating systems. 3) To scale up and generalize the results of three case study locations to develop a regionalized model of the utilization of low-temperature geothermal resources. A national-level, GIS-based, low-temperature geothermal resource supply model was developed and used to develop a series of national supply curves. We performed an in-depth analysis of the low-temperature geothermal resources that dominate the eastern half of the United States. The final products of this study include 17 publications, an updated version of the cost estimation software GEOPHIRES, and direct-use supply curves for low-temperature utilization of geothermal resources. The supply curves for direct use geothermal include utilization from known hydrothermal, undiscovered hydrothermal, and near-hydrothermal EGS resources and presented these results at the Stanford Geothermal Workshop. We also have incorporated our wellbore model into TOUGH2-EGS and began coding TOUGH2-EGS with the wellbore model into GEOPHIRES as a reservoir thermal drawdown option. Additionally, case studies for the WVU and Cornell campuses were performed to assess the potential for district heating and cooling at these two eastern U.S. sites.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Financial Impacts of a Combined Energy Efficiency and Net-Metered PV Portfolio on a Prototypical Northeast Utility

Reductions in electricity consumption from customer-funded energy efficiency (EE) programs and distributed photovoltaic (PV) are expected to dramatically increase over the next ten years. While EE programs and net-metered PV provide numerous utility, customer, and societal benefits, including utility cost reductions, lower customer bills, and achievement of clean energy public policy goals, they may contribute to stagnant or declining retail sales for electric utilities. Investor-owned utilities are concerned about stagnant or declining sales as they undermine existing regulatory and ratemaking approaches to cover fixed costs and may negatively impact utility profitability. Current retail rate designs allocate a large fraction of fixed costs to volumetric energy charges creating challenges for the utility’s recovery of its fixed costs due to reductions in retail sales between rate cases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preparing Distribution Utilities for the Future - Evolving Customer Consumption in Renewable Rich Grids: A Novel Analytical Framework

The research collaboration between NREL and BYPL focuses on the challenges caused by renewable integration into the power grid at large. Since the challenges and opportunities vary depending on the point of interconnection (distribution or transmission) the research team identified two tracks for research as listed below: 1. Power procurement - This research track focuses on the challenges and opportunities caused by GW scale renewable integration at the transmission level. Specifically, this track focuses on the contribution that utility-scale renewable energy procurement provides to distribution utilities, both from energy and capacity perspectives. In this track of research, utility customers are only considered as traditional (one-directional) consumers of energy. 2. Distributed energy resources - This research track focuses on the challenges and opportunities caused by many small-scale distributed renewable resource integrations at the distribution systems. At the power distribution level, distribution utilities may face not only new solar energy technologies, but also battery energy storage and electric vehicles as well. These three technologies (solar PV, battery energy storage, and electric vehicles) combined, pose unique challenges to distribution utilities. This track focuses on assessing the net-load evolution that distribution utilities observe as these emerging technologies make their way to the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗