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Sensitivity of Anthropogenic Cloud Droplet Number Change to Preindustrial Emission Inventories and Physics Parameterizations

Understanding the preindustrial (PI) to present-day (PD) change in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd) is important to constrain the anthropogenic influence on clouds and aid future model projections. Perturbed parameter ensemble simulations of PI and PD conditions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv3) reveal two locations with consistent negative ΔNd signal across parameter space–the Southeastern US and the United Kingdom–despite a trend of positive ΔNd globally from increased fossil fuel consumption. These negative ΔNd signals are driven by higher anthropogenic biofuel emissions in the PI. By varying the PI aerosol mass and/or number emissions across these data sets' uncertainty ranges, we can change the magnitude and sign of ΔNd and the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci) regionally and globally, with near-zero ΔNd leading to near-zero ERFaci. These results highlight the need to constrain PI emission uncertainty to better understand Earth system responses to aerosol-cloud interactions.

Brown, Hunter Y. [University of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗

Chapter 8 - Challenges and Opportunities for International Trade in Forest Biomass. In the book Mobilisation of Forest Bioenergy in the Boreal and Temperate Biomes.

In an effort to reduce fossil fuel consumption, the use of woody biomass for heat and power generation is growing. Key destination markets will be countries within the European Union (EU), particularly the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium. While demand from Asia (particularly South Korea and Japan) will also increase, it will continue to play a secondary role. Across the EU, adoption of sustainability criteria for forest biomass based on the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) 2009/28/EC or similar criteria is likely. In the UK, the largest market for traded wood pellets, such criteria have already been proposed. As of 2015, only forest biomass that achieves at least a 60% reduction in GHG emissions relative to the EU fossil fuel electricity average can be used for bioenergy production, and proof of Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) is required. In the Netherlands, the energy industry and non-governmental organizations achieved principal agreement on sustainability criteria for solid biomass, but issues of compliance testing and monitoring must still be addressed. In Flemish Belgium, the sustainability requirements for bioliquids may soon be applied to woody biomass. In Denmark, a voluntary industry agreement is set to ensure that all bioenergy production by 2019 is conducted sustainably. At present, internationally traded wood pellets from temperate and boreal biomes originate primarily from the United States (US), Canada, and Russia. Among these, Canada offers large stretches of SFM-certified forests, but the US Southeast has seen the strongest increase in wood pellet production and export in recent years. The expansion of pellet production in the US Southeast is mainly linked to available forest inventory (pulpwood in particular)and the competitive advantage gained by the relative proximity to demand markets in the EU. In addition to the mobilization barriers observed in supply chains at the local and national scale, limitations in the supply of forest biomass for international trade will be influenced by regulatory measures that could restrict the trade of specific feedstock fractions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Accuracy of Modelled Stratospheric Temperatures in the Winter Arctic Vortex from Infra Red Montgolfier Long Duration Balloon Measurements

The temperature of the stratosphere has been measured in the Arctic vortex every 9-10 minutes along the trajectory of four Infra Red Montgolfier long duration balloons flown for 7 to 22 days during the winters of 1997 and 1999. From a number of comparisons to independent sensors, the accuracy of the measurements is demonstrated to be plus or minus 0.5 K during nighttime and at altitude below 28 km (10 hPa). The performances of the analyses of global meteorological models, European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 31 and 50 levels, United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), Data Assimilation Office (DAO), National Climatic Prediction Center (NCEP) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, used in photochemical simulations of ozone destruction and interpretation of satellite data, are evaluated by comparison to this large (3500 data points) and homogeneous experimental data set. Most of models, except ECMWF31 in 1999, do show a smal1 average warm bias of between 0 and 1.6 K, with deviations particularly large, up to 20 K at high altitude (5hPa) in stratospheric warming conditions in 1999. Particularly wrong was ECMWF 31 levels near its top level at 10 hPa in 1999 where temperature 25 K colder than the real atmosphere were reported. The average dispersion between models and measurements varies from plus or minus 1.0 to plus or minus 3.0 K depending on the model and the year. It is shown to be the result of three contributions. The largest is a long wave modulation likely caused by the displacement of the temperature field in the analyses compared to real atmosphere. The second is the overestimation of the vertical gradient of temperature particularly in warming conditions, which explains the increase of dispersion from 1997 to 1999. Unexpectedly, the third and smallest (plus or minus 0.6-0.7 K) is the contribution of meso and subgrid scale vertical and horizontal features associated to the vertical propagation of orographic or gravity waves. Compared to other models, the newly available ECMWF 50 levels version assimilating the high vertical resolution radiances of the space borne Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, performs significantly better (0.03 plus or minus 1.12 K on average between 10 and 140 hPa in 1999) than other models.

Pommereau, J.-P.↗

Thriving in the Carbon-Aware Market: How to Account for Emissions in the Era of Carbon-Centered Trade Policies

Emerging global policies, such as the European Union's enacted Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and similar policies under development in Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom, will place a premium on goods traded into their territories with higher embedded emissions than those produced domestically. U.S. manufacturers could stand to benefit from such policies; given the investments U.S. industry has made to reduce the energy and emission intensities of its operations. For example, the overall GHG intensity of U.S. steel production in 2019 was ~0.96 t CO2/t steel, less than half that of China (~1.97 t CO2/t steel), and bested only by Italy. To realize these benefits, transparent, accurate, interoperable and accepted embedded emissions accounting and calculation methods are required. Achieving this requires overcoming challenges related to data availability, boundary definitions, and product definitions among others, both at individual facilities as well as through value chains. We will present technical findings on methodology considerations and data-availability constraints for determining the emissions of traded goods, using steel as a pilot and leveraging publicly available data. Issues such as determining the appropriate scope for emissions accounting, implications of the specificity of product chosen, emissions allocation in multi-product facilities, and enumeration of emissions for products manufactured across multiple facilities will be discussed. By sharing the results of our efforts, we aim to inform the development and execution of embedded emissions accounting methods from a technical perspective such that U.S. manufacturers can thrive in emerging global markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development, Testing and Validation of a Waste Assay System for the Measurement and Characterisation of Active Spent Fuel Element Debris From UK Magnox Reactors - 12533

This paper describes the development, testing and validation of a waste measurement instrument for characterising active remote handled radioactive waste arising from the operation of Magnox reactors in the United Kingdom. Following operation in UK Magnox gas cooled reactors and a subsequent period of cooling, parts of the magnesium-aluminium alloy cladding were removed from spent fuel and the uranium fuel rods with the remaining cladding were removed to Sellafield for treatment. The resultant Magnox based spent fuel element debris (FED), which constitutes active intermediate level waste (ILW) has been stored in concrete vaults at the reactor sites. As part of the decommissioning of the FED vaults the FED must be removed, measured and characterised and placed in intermediate storage containers. The present system was developed for use at the Trawsfynydd nuclear power station (NPS), which is in the decommissioning phase, but the approach is potentially applicable to FED characterisation at all of the Magnox reactors. The measurement system consists of a heavily shielded and collimated high purity Germanium (HPGe) detector with electromechanical cooling and a high count-rate preamplifier and digital multichannel pulse height analyser. The HPGe based detector system is controlled by a software code, which stores the measurement result and allows a comprehensive analysis of the measured FED data. Fuel element debris is removed from the vault and placed on a tray to a uniform depth of typically 10 cm for measurement. The tray is positioned approximately 1.2 meters above the detector which views the FED through a tungsten collimator with an inverted pyramid shape. At other Magnox sites the positions may be reversed with the shielded and collimated HPGe detector located above the tray on which the FED is measured. A comprehensive Monte Carlo modelling and analysis of the measurement process has been performed in order to optimise the measurement geometry and eliminate interferences from radioactive sources and FED in the immediate vicinity of the measurement position. The detector system has been calibrated and high activity radioactive sources of Cs-137, Co-60 and Na-22 have been used to validate the measurement process. The data acquisition and analysis software code has been tested and validated in keeping with the software quality assurance requirements of both ISO:9001-2008 - TICK-IT in the UK and NQA-1. The measurement and analysis system has been comprehensively tested with high activity sources, is flexible and may be applicable to a wide range of remote handled radioactive waste measurement applications. It is due to be installed at Trawsfynydd NPS later this year. This paper describes the Waste Tray Assay System (WTAS) that has been developed for the measurement of Magnox FED waste. The WTAS has been tested with a range of radioactive sources and its operation has been simulated with benchmarked MCNP Monte Carlo calculations. The measurement software has been validated as has the operation of the system for a range of strong radioactive sources. A system based on the design is due for installation and operation in 2012. The system has application to the measurement of Magnox Fuel Element Debris (FED) waste at other Magnox reactor sites. The major design objective of the WTAS that has been achieved is the ability of the assay system to determine the content of Cs-137, and in turn to enable the fissile burden to be assessed using a radionuclide fingerprint, in the presence of higher and highly variable quantities of Co-60, typically from nimonic springs. The approach can be used in other Magnox FED waste configurations where the detector is located above the FED waste sorting tray and where the collimation is fixed below the detector and at a distance above the tray. In this case, which has also been investigated, there are different shielding problems and mechanical support issues. The extensive use of MCNP Monte Carlo modelling to simulate the geometry of the sorting cell and the distribution of radioactive sources has helped to ensure that all of the detector shielding requirements are addressed and suitable Cs-137 and Co-60 discrimination can be achieved. The WTAS in its present form or in other configurations has relevance to the measurement of other active ILW and highly active RH waste. Examples include high activity RH LLW and RH TRU (Transuranic) waste as defined in the United States arising from both commercial nuclear and Department of Energy (DOE) operations. The analysis is able to analyse a range of radionuclides beyong those expected in the Magnox FED cases. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A step towards the final frontier: Lessons learned from acceptance testing of the first HPE/Cray EX 3000 system at ORNL

Summary In this article, we summarize the deployment of the Air Force Weather (AFW) HPC11 system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) including the process followed to successfully complete acceptance testing of the system. HPC11 is the first HPE/Cray EX 3000 system that has been successfully released to its user community in a federal facility. HPC11 consists of two identical 800‐node supercomputers, Fawbush and Miller, with access to two independent and identical lustre parallel file systems. HPC11 is equipped with Slingshot 10 interconnect technology and relies on the HPE Performance Cluster Manager software for system configuration. ORNL has a clearly defined acceptance testing process used to ensure that every new system deployed can provide the necessary capabilities to support user workloads. We worked closely with HPE and AFW to develop a set of tests that used the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office's Unified Model and 4‐dimensional variational data assimilation. We also included benchmarks and applications from the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility portfolio to fully exercise the HPE/Cray programming environment and evaluate the functionality and performance of the system. Acceptance testing of HPC11 required parallel execution of each element on Fawbush and Miller. In addition, careful coordination was needed to ensure successful acceptance of the newly deployed lustre file systems alongside the compute resources. In this work, we present test results from specific system components and provide an overview of the issues identified, challenges encountered, and the lessons learned along the way.

Melesse Vergara, Verónica G.↗

Understanding the Awareness, Knowledge and Perceptions of Interventional Radiology Amongst Undergraduates in the UK

Introduction: The role of interventional radiology (IR) in health care is rapidly expanding in the United Kingdom (UK). However, the presence of IR in the current undergraduate curriculum is lacking. Purpose: This study investigates the awareness, knowledge and perceptions of IR in undergraduates through the clinical years of medical school to suggest future interventions. Methods: A total of 360 questionnaires, designed to test undergraduates’ knowledge of, and exposure to, IR were distributed over a 14-day period in a UK medical institution. Results: Of the 312 respondents (86.7%), the majority had never formally shadowed a radiologist (65.4%) or encountered teaching from an interventional radiologist (54.5%). Most students (88.5%) felt their knowledge of IR was lower than other specialties. Students’ knowledge of IR procedures did not statistically increase through the clinical years. Students were most cognisant of vascular procedures and least aware of IR’s role in oncology. Only 10.9% would consider a career in IR, with 39.7% citing the lack of knowledge and 18.6% citing patient contact as the top reasons for this. Conclusion: Current students have poor exposure to IR through the undergraduate curriculum. Consequently, there is no increase in knowledge of IR clinical practice through the clinical years. Multi-level interventions, incorporating universities and radiological societies are required to increase undergraduate awareness and promote IR as a career. Level of Evidence: Level 3, Local non-random sample.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 is susceptible to neutralizing antibodies elicited by ancestral spike vaccines

All current vaccines for COVID-19 utilize ancestral SARS-CoV-2 spike with the goal of generating protective neutralizing antibodies. The recent emergence and rapid spread of several SARS-CoV-2 variants carrying multiple spike mutations raise concerns about possible immune escape. One variant, first identified in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7, also called 20I/501Y.V1), contains eight spike mutations with potential to impact antibody therapy, vaccine efficacy, and risk of reinfection. Here in this paper, we show that B.1.1.7 remains sensitive to neutralization, albeit at moderately reduced levels (~2-fold), by serum samples from convalescent individuals and recipients of an mRNA vaccine (mRNA-1273, Moderna) and a protein nanoparticle vaccine (NVX-CoV2373, Novavax). A subset of monoclonal antibodies to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of spike are less effective against the variant, while others are largely unaffected. Lastly, these findings indicate that variant B.1.1.7 is unlikely to be a major concern for current vaccines or for an increased risk of reinfection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Prenatal exposure to mixtures of persistent endocrine disrupting chemicals and postnatal body size in British girls

Endocrine disrupting chemical (EDC) exposure is ubiquitous. EDC exposure during critical windows of development may interfere with the body's endocrine system, affecting growth. Previous human studies have examined one EDC at a time in relation to infant growth. By studying mixtures, the human experience can be better approximated. We investigated the association of prenatal exposure to persistent EDCs (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs)) as mixtures with postnatal body size among female offspring. We used a sub-sample of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N = 425), based in the United Kingdom. We quantified 52 EDCs in maternal serum collected during pregnancy. We used Bayesian kernel machine regression with a random intercept to examine the association of prenatal concentrations of EDC mixtures with longitudinal postnatal body size measures for each EDC class separately (PFAS, PCBs, and OCPs) and for all three classes combined. Weight and height measures at 0, 2, 9, and 19 months were obtained by health professionals as part of routine child health surveillance. The mixture representing all three classes combined (31 chemicals) (n = 301) was inversely associated with postnatal body size. Holding all EDCs in the 31-chemical mixture at the 75th percentile compared to the 50th percentile was associated with 0.15 lower weight-for-age z-score (95% credible interval –0.26, –0.03). Weak inverse associations were also seen for height-for-age and body mass index-for-age scores. Furthermore, these results suggest that prenatal exposure to mixtures of persistent EDCs may affect postnatal body size.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Determination of significance in Ecological Impact Assessment: Past change, current practice and future improvements

Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) is an important tool for conservation and achieving sustainable development. 'Significant' impacts are those which disturb or alter the environment to a measurable degree. Significance is a crucial part of EcIA, our understanding of the concept in practice is vital if it is to be effective as a tool. This study employed three methods to assess how the determination of significance has changed through time, what current practice is, and what would lead to future improvements. Three data streams were collected: interviews with expert stakeholders, a review of 30 Environmental Statements and a broad-scale survey of the United Kingdom Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (IEEM) members. The approach taken in the determination of significance has become more standardised and subjectivity has become constrained through a transparent framework. This has largely been driven by a set of guidelines produced by IEEM in 2006. The significance of impacts is now more clearly justified and the accuracy with which it is determined has improved. However, there are limitations to accuracy and effectiveness of the determination of significance. These are the quality of baseline survey data, our scientific understanding of ecological processes and the lack of monitoring and feedback of results. These in turn are restricted by the limited resources available in consultancies. The most notable recommendations for future practice are the implementation of monitoring and the publication of feedback, the creation of a central database for baseline survey data and the streamlining of guidance. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The assessment of significance has changed markedly through time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The IEEM guidelines have driven a standardisation of practice. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Currently limited by quality of baseline data and scientific understanding. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Monitoring and feedback would rapidly improve practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

4D electrical resistivity tomography for assessing the influence of vegetation and subsurface moisture on railway cutting condition

Instability of slopes, embankments, and cuttings on the railway network is increasingly prevalent globally. Monitoring vulnerable infrastructure aids in geotechnical asset management, and improvements to transport safety and efficiency. Here, we examine the use of a novel, near-real-time Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) monitoring system for assessing the stability of a railway cutting in Leicestershire, United Kingdom. In 2015, an ERT monitoring system was installed across a relict landslide (grassed) and an area of more stable ground on either side (wooded), to monitor changes in electrical resistivity through time and space, and to assess the influence of different types of vegetation on the stability of transportation infrastructure. Two years of 4-Dimensional ERT monitoring results are presented here, and petrophysical relationships developed in the laboratory are applied to calibrate the resistivity models in order to provide an insight into hydrogeological pathways within a railway cutting. The influence of vegetation type on subsurface moisture pathways and on slope stability is also assessed – here we find that seasonal subsurface changes in moisture content and soil suction are exacerbated by the presence of trees (wooded area). This results in shrink-swell behaviour of the clays comprising the railway cutting, resulting in fissuring and a reduction in shear strength, leading to instability. As such, it is proposed that on slopes comprised of expansive soils, grassed slopes are beneficial for stability. Insights into the use of 4-D ERT for monitoring railway infrastructure gained from this study may be applied to the monitoring of critical geotechnical assets elsewhere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Value of abstraction in performance assessment – When is a higher level of detail necessary?

In this study, different approaches in performance assessment (PA) of the long-term safety of a repository for radioactive waste were examined. This investigation was carried out as part of the DECOVALEX-2023 project, an international collaborative effort for research and model comparison. One specific task of the DECOVALEX-2023 project was the Salt Performance Assessment Modelling task (Salt PA), which aimed at comparing various models and methods employed in the performance assessment of deep geological repositories in salt. In the context of the Salt PA task, three distinct teams from SNL (United States), Quintessa Ltd (United Kingdom), and GRS (Germany) examined the consequences of employing different levels of abstractions when modelling the repository's geometry and implementing various features and processes, using the example of a simple hypothetical repository structure in domal salt. Each team applied their own tools: PFLOTRAN (SNL), QPAC (Quintessa) and LOPOS (GRS). These differ essentially regarding numerical concept and degree of detail in the representation of the underlying physical processes. The discussion focused on when simplifications can be appropriately applied and what consequences result from them. Furthermore, it was explored when and if a higher level of fidelity in geometry or physical processes is required.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hydrogen wide area monitoring of LH2 releases

The characterization of liquid hydrogen (LH2) releases has been identified as an international research priority to expand the safe use of hydrogen as an energy carrier. The elucidation of LH2 release behavior will require the development of dispersion and other models, guided and validated by empirical field measurements such as those afforded by Hydrogen Wide Area Monitoring (HyWAM). HyWAM can be defined as the quantitative spatial and temporal three-dimensional monitoring of planned or unintentional hydrogen releases. With support provided through the FCH JU Prenormative Research for the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) program, HSE performed a series of LH2 releases to characterize the dispersion and pooling behavior of cold hydrogen releases. The NREL Sensor Laboratory developed a HyWAM system based upon a distributed array of point sensors that is amenable for profiling cold hydrogen plumes. The NREL Sensor Laboratory and HSE formally committed to collaborate on profiling the LH2 releases. This collaboration included the integration of the NREL HyWAM into the HSE LH2 release hardware. This was achieved through a deployment plan jointly developed by the NREL and HSE personnel. Under this plan, the NREL Sensor Laboratory provided multiple HyWAM modules that accommodated 32 sampling points for near-field hydrogen profiling during the HSE PRESLHY LH2 releases. The NREL HyWAM would be utilized throughout the LH2 release study performed under PRESLHY by HSE, including Work Package 3 (WP3—Release and Mixing--Rainout) and subsequent work packages (WP4—Ignition and WP5—Combustion). Under the auspices of the PRESLHY WP6 (Implementation), data and findings from the HSE LH2 Releases are to be made available to stakeholders in the hydrogen community. Comprehensive data analysis and dissemination is ongoing, but the integration of the NREL HyWAM into the HSE LH2 Release Apparatus and its performance as well as some key outcomes of the LH2 releases in WP3 are presented.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Targeted Intraoperative Radiotherapy for Breast Cancer in Patients in Whom External Beam Radiation Is Not Possible

Purpose: External beam radiation therapy (EBRT) following wide local excision of the primary tumor is the standard treatment in early breast cancer. In some circumstances this procedure is not possible or is contraindicated or difficult. The purpose of this study was to determine the safety and efficacy of targeted intraoperative radiotherapy (TARGIT) when EBRT is not feasible. Methods and Materials: We report our experience with TARGIT in three centers (Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom) between 1999 and 2008. Patients at these centers received a single radiation dose of 20 Gy to the breast tissue in contact with the applicator (or 6 Gy at 1-cm distance), as they could not be given EBRT and were keen to avoid mastectomy. Results: Eighty patients were treated with TARGIT. Reasons for using TARGIT were 21 patients had previously received EBRT, and 31 patients had clinical reasons such as systemic lupus erythematosus, motor neuron disease, Parkinson's disease, ankylosing spondylitis, morbid obesity, and cardiovascular or severe respiratory disease. Three of these patients received percutaneous radiotherapy without surgery; 28 patients were included for compelling personal reasons, usually on compassionate grounds. After a median follow-up of 38 months, only two local recurrences were observed, an annual local recurrence rate of 0.75% (95% confidence interval, 0.09%-2.70%). Conclusions: While we await the results of the randomized trial (over 2,000 patients have already been recruited), TARGIT is an acceptable option but only in highly selected cases that cannot be recruited in the trial and in whom EBRT is not feasible/possible.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

'Mind the Gap'-The Impact of Variations in the Duration of the Treatment Gap and Overall Treatment Time in the First UK Anal Cancer Trial (ACT I)

Purpose: The United Kingdom Coordinating Committee on Cancer Research anal cancer trial demonstrated the benefit of combined modality treatment (CMT) using radiotherapy (RT), infusional 5-fluorouracil, and mitomycin C over RT alone. The present study retrospectively examines the impact of the recommended 6-week treatment gap and local RT boost on long-term outcome. Methods and Materials: A total of 577 patients were randomly assigned RT alone or CMT. After a 6-week gap responders received a boost using either additional external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) (15 Gy) or iridium-192 implant (25 Gy). The effect of boost, the gap between initial treatment (RT alone or CMT) and boost (Tgap), and overall treatment time (OTT) were examined for their impact on outcome. Results: Among the 490 good responders, 436 (89%) patients received a boost after initial treatment. For boosted patients, the risk of anal cancer death decreased by 38% (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.62, 99% CI 0.35-1.12; p = 0.04), but there was no evidence this was mediated via a reduction in locoregional failure (LRF) (HR: 0.90, 99% CI 0.48-1.68; p = 0.66). The difference in Tgap was only 1.4 days longer for EBRT boost, compared with implant (p = 0.51). OTT was longer by 6.1 days for EBRT (p = 0.006). Tgap and OTT were not associated with LRF. Radionecrosis was reported in 8% of boosted, compared with 0% in unboosted patients (p = 0.03). Conclusions: These results question the benefit of a radiotherapy boost after a 6-week gap. The higher doses of a boost may contribute more to an increased risk of late morbidity, rather than local control.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Second Malignant Neoplasms in Digestive Organs After Childhood Cancer: A Cohort-Nested Case-Control Study

Purpose: Cancers of the digestive system constitute a major risk for childhood cancer survivors treated with radiotherapy once they reach adulthood. The aim of this study was to determine therapy-related risk factors for the development of a second malignancy in the digestive organs (SMDO) after a childhood cancer. Methods and Materials: Among 4,568 2-year survivors of a childhood solid cancer diagnosed before 17 years of age at eight French and British centers, and among 25,120 patients diagnosed as having a malignant neoplasm before the age of 20 years, whose data were extracted from the Nordic Cancer Registries, we matched 58 case patients (41 men and 17 women) of SMDO and 167 controls, in their respective cohort, for sex, age at first cancer, calendar year of occurrence of the first cancer, and duration of follow-up. The radiation dose received at the site of each second malignancy and at the corresponding site of its matched control was estimated. Results: The risk of developing a SMDO was 9.7-fold higher in relation to the general populations in France and the United Kingdom. In the case-control study, a strong dose-response relationship was estimated, compared with that in survivors who had not received radiotherapy; the odds ratio was 5.2 (95% CI, 1.7-16.0) for local radiation doses between 10 and 29 Gy and 9.6 (95% CI, 2.6-35.2) for doses equal to or greater than 30 Gy. Chemotherapy was also found to increase the risk of developing SMDO. Conclusions: This study confirms that childhood cancer treatments strongly increase the risk of SMDO, which occur only after a very long latency period.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Variations in the Processing of DNA Double-Strand Breaks Along 60-MeV Therapeutic Proton Beams

Purpose: To investigate the variations in induction and repair of DNA damage along the proton path, after a previous report on the increasing biological effectiveness along clinically modulated 60-MeV proton beams. Methods and Materials: Human skin fibroblast (AG01522) cells were irradiated along a monoenergetic and a modulated spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) proton beam used for treating ocular melanoma at the Douglas Cyclotron, Clatterbridge Centre for Oncology, Wirral, Liverpool, United Kingdom. The DNA damage response was studied using the 53BP1 foci formation assay. The linear energy transfer (LET) dependence was studied by irradiating the cells at depths corresponding to entrance, proximal, middle, and distal positions of SOBP and the entrance and peak position for the pristine beam. Results: A significant amount of persistent foci was observed at the distal end of the SOBP, suggesting complex residual DNA double-strand break damage induction corresponding to the highest LET values achievable by modulated proton beams. Unlike the directly irradiated, medium-sharing bystander cells did not show any significant increase in residual foci. Conclusions: The DNA damage response along the proton beam path was similar to the response of X rays, confirming the low-LET quality of the proton exposure. However, at the distal end of SOBP our data indicate an increased complexity of DNA lesions and slower repair kinetics. A lack of significant induction of 53BP1 foci in the bystander cells suggests a minor role of cell signaling for DNA damage under these conditions.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Understanding activity engagement across weekdays and weekend days: A multivariate multiple discrete-continuous modeling approach

This paper is motivated by the increasing recognition that modeling activity-travel demand for a single day of the week, as is done in virtually all travel forecasting models, may be inadequate in capturing underlying processes that govern activity-travel scheduling behavior. The considerable variability in daily travel suggests that there are important complementary relationships and competing tradeoffs involved in scheduling and allocating time to various activities across days of the week. Both limited survey data availability and methodological challenges in modeling week-long activity-travel schedules have precluded the development of multi-day activity-travel demand models. With passive and technology-based data collection methods increasingly in vogue, the collection of multi-day travel data may become increasingly commonplace in the years ahead. This paper addresses the methodological challenge associated with modeling multi-day activity-travel demand by formulating a multivariate multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) model system. The comprehensive framework ties together two MDCP model components, one corresponding to weekday time allocation and the other to weekend activity-time allocation. By tying the two MDCP components together, the model system also captures relationships in activity-time allocation between weekdays on the one hand and weekend days on the other. Model estimation on a week-long travel diary data set from the United Kingdom shows that there are significant inter-relationships between weekdays and weekend days in activity-travel scheduling behavior. In conclusion, the model system presented in this paper may serve as a higher-level multi-day activity scheduler in conjunction with existing daily activity-based travel models.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗