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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs.

Climate Change↗
NASA NTRS2013

The High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer on the GLOBAL HAWK: From Technology Development to Science Discovery

This paper presents results from the High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) during three recent field campaigns on the Global Hawk Unmanned Ariel Vehicles (UAV), focusing on the enabling technology that led to unprecedented observations of significant weather phenomenon, such as thermodynamic evolution of the tropical cyclone core during rapid intensification and the high resolution three dimensional mapping of several atmospheric river events. HAMSR is a 25 channel cross-track scanning microwave sounder with channels near the 60 and 118 GHz oxygen lines and the 183 GHz water vapor line. HAMSR was originally designed and built at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory as a technology demonstrator in 1998. Subsequent to this, HAMSR participated in three NASA hurricane field campaigns, CAMEX-4, TCSP and NAMMA. Beginning in 2008, HAMSR was extensively upgraded to deploy on the NASA Global Hawk (GH) platform and serve as an asset to the NASA sub-orbital program. HAMSR has participated on the Global Hawk during the 2010 Genesis and Rapid Intensification (GRIP) campaign, the 2011 Winter Storms and Atmospheric Rivers (WISPAR) campaign and is currently participating in the NASA Ventures Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) campaign (2011-2015).

NASA sub-orbital program↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data from "The Influence of Climate Change on Flooding and Social Inequalities from Remnants of Hurricane Ida"

Previous research has demonstrated that tropical cyclone-related precipitation and flooding have been increased by anthropogenic global warming. Our work aims to quantify the contribution of climate change to the deadly flooding from the remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021) and its impact on human society. We developed an analysis framework that combines lessons from climate change attribution science, two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling, and flood impact evaluation, including a social inequality index, to estimate remnants of Ida flooding and consequences responding to current (locally 1°C warmer) and future (another 1°C warmer) climate change. We find that an additional quarter to a half million people were exposed to flooding due to current and future climate change. The human influence on flood impacts was larger with deeper flood water depth (≥ 1 m) than with shallow depths. Socially vulnerable populations were found to be disproportionately more affected, and climate change exacerbates this inequality

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Tropical Cyclones’ Contribution to Precipitation over the Eastern United States and Sensitivity to the Variable-Resolution Domain Extent

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can subject an area to heavy precipitation for many hours, or even days, worsening the risk of flooding, which creates dangerous conditions for residents of the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts. To study the representation of TC-related precipitation over the eastern United States in current-generation global climate models, a novel analysis methodology is developed to track TCs and extract their associated precipitation using an estimate of their dynamical outer size. This methodology is applied to three variable-resolution (VR) configurations of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), with high-resolution domains over the North Atlantic and one low-resolution conventional configuration, as well as to a combination of reanalysis and observational precipitation data. Metrics and diagnostics such as TC counts, intensities, outer storm sizes, and annual mean total and extreme precipitation are compared between the CAM5 simulations and reanalysis/observations. The high-resolution VR configurations outperform the global low-resolution configuration for all variables in the North Atlantic. Realistic TC intensities are produced by the VR configurations. The total North Atlantic TC counts are lower than observations but better than reanalysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS5 Model

The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version5 (GEOS5) model at 0.25 horizontal resolution. The years 2005 and 2006 characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more realistic levels compared to the baseline control configuration. The vertical and horizontal structure of the strongest simulated hurricane shows the maximum lower-level (850-950hPa) wind speed greater than 60 ms and the minimum sea level pressure reaching 940mb, corresponding to a category 4 hurricane - a category never achieved by the control configuration. The radius of the maximum wind of 50km, the location of the warm core exceeding 10 C, and the horizontal compactness of the hurricane center are all quite realistic without any negatively affecting the atmospheric mean state. This study reveals that an increase in the threshold of minimum entrainment suppresses parameterized deep convection by entraining more dry air into the typical plume. This leads to cooling and drying at the mid- to upper-troposphere, along with the positive latent heat flux and moistening in the lower-troposphere. The resulting increase in conditional instability provides an environment that is more conducive to TC vortex development and upward moisture flux convergence by dynamically resolved moist convection, thereby increasing TC activity.

GEOS5↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wave climate and energy resources in the Mariana Islands from a 42-year high-resolution hindcast

We report a high-resolution wave hindcast from 1979 to 2020 was developed for Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, which are influenced by mesoscale and synoptic weather systems from the western Pacific Rim to the Central Pacific. The spectral wave modeling utilized structured global and unstructured regional grids with improved resolution in nearshore waters, where wave resources development is most feasible. The hindcast demonstrates its capability in capturing multi-modal seas through reproduction of bulk and partitioned wave parameters derived from altimetry and buoy measurements. The local wave climate is influenced by the year-round trade winds and tropical cyclones as well as seasonal monsoons, frontal systems, and mid-latitude high- and low-pressure systems. The strong intra-annual variation of the significant wave height and power flux reflects transitions between local and distant weather systems, which account for the diverse wave conditions comprised of short-period wind waves, intermediate-period seas, and long-period swells around the islands. Among the Pacific island regions, spectral partitioning is particularly important for describing the dominant wave components by period and direction with pertinent information conducive to energy resources characterization and coastal zone management in the Mariana Islands.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS2012

Leveraging Data Intensive Computing to Support Automated Event Services

A large portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- or event-based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon. A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an EI Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon," and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a finite duration and an associated geolocation as a function of time; its therefore an entity in four-dimensional . (4D) spatiotemporal space. The interests of Earth scientists typically rivet on Earth Science phenomena with potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life, but broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events - usually beginning by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena. such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. And even for these high-impact phenomena, the availability of comprehensive records is still only a recent development. A major reason for the lack of comprehensive ,records for the majority of the ES phenomena is the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property and are thus not consistently tracked. monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack commonly accepted criteria for definitions. However. the lack of comprehensive records is also due to the increasingly prohibitive volume of observations and model data that must be examined. NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data and steadily increases. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. In the following we present a couple motivating scenarios, demonstrating the issues faced by Earth scientists studying ES phenomena.

Clune, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Saharan Air and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Suppression From a Global Modeling Perspective

During summer 2006, the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) organized a field campaign in Africa called Special Observation Period (SOP-3), in which scientists in the field were involved in a number of surface network and aircraft measurements. One of the scientific goals of the campaign was to understand the nature and causes for tropical cyclogenesis originating out of African Easterly Waves (AEWs, westward propagating atmospheric disturbances sometimes associated with precursors of hurricanes), and the role that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL, a hot and dry air layer advecting large amounts of dust) can play in the formation or suppression of tropical cyclones. During the NAMMA campaign a high-resolution global model, the NASA GEOS-5, was operationally run by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) in support to the mission. The daily GEOS-5 forecasts were found to be very useful by decision-making scientists in the field as an aid to discriminate between developing and non-developing AEWs and plan the flight tracks. In the post-event analyses which were performed mostly by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres, two events were highlighted: a non-developing AEW which appeared to have been suppressed by Saharan air, compared to a developing AEW which was the precursor of hurricane Helene. Both events were successfully predicted by the GEOS-5 during the real-time forecasts provided in support to the mission. In this work it is found that very steep moisture gradients and a strong thermal dipole, with relatively warm air in the mid-troposphere and cool air below, are associated with SAL in both the GEOS-5 forecasts and the NCEP analyses, even at -great distance- from the Sahara. The presence of these unusual thermodynamic features over the Atlantic Ocean, at several thousands of kilometers from the African coastline, is suggestive that SAL mixing is very minimal and that the model's capability of retaining the different properties of air masses during transport are important to represent effectively the role of dry air intrusions in the tropical circulation.

Reale, O.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Tropical cyclone rainfall as measured by the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer

A selected group of 1973 North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones was studied by using data from the Nimbus 5 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR), the Temperature-Humidity Infrared Radiometer (THIR), NOAA-2 and USAF DMSP imageries. From the unique combination of infrared, visible, and microwave data, it was possible during various stages of storm development to differentiate between dense cirrus outflow and rain areas, to identify centers of circulation and areas of low-level moisture, and by the use of a theoretical model to estimate semi-quantitatively areas of light, moderate, and heavy rainfall rates.

Allison, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Advanced aircraft for atmospheric research

The development of aircraft for high-altitude research is described in terms of program objectives and environmental, technological limitations, and the work on the Perseus A aircraft. The need for these advanced aircraft is proposed in relation to atmospheric science issues such as greenhouse trapping, the dynamics of tropical cyclones, and stratospheric ozone. The implications of the study on aircraft design requirements is addressed with attention given to the basic categories of high-altitude, long-range, long-duration, and nap-of-the-earth aircraft. A strategy is delineated for a platform that permits unique stratospheric measurements and is a step toward a more advanced aircraft. The goal of Perseus A is to carry scientific air sampling payloads weighing at least 50 kg to altitudes of more than 25 km. The airfoils are designed for low Reynolds numbers, the structural weight is very low, and the closed-cycle power plant runs on liquid oxygen.

Russell, P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the relationship between eastern China aerosols and western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

How aerosols affect the weather and climate system has received increasing attention. This study finds a significant negative correlation between March–May eastern China aerosol optical depth (AOD) and July–November western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during 2003–2020. This time period spans when several aerosol reanalyses are available and both Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AOD retrievals are assimilated therein. Composite analyses and budget analyses of dynamical genesis potential indices indicate the importance of large-scale environmental factors, especially vertical velocity and vertical wind shear, associated with changes in AOD that in turn modulate changes in WNP TC frequency. Increased eastern China AOD may facilitate negative Pacific meridional mode development via modulation of the westerly jet, which then forces an anticyclonic circulation over the WNP basin. Increased AOD can also directly decrease the inter-hemispheric temperature differential and increases the intra-hemispheric temperature differential between the equator and the mid-latitudes, thus weakening ascending motion and enhancing vertical wind shear over the WNP, especially the southeastern portion of the basin. Further, all of these large-scale environment changes induced by increased eastern China AOD tend to suppress WNP TCs. This study highlights the potential influence of eastern China aerosol loadings on WNP TCs, thus improving our understanding of TC climate variability over the WNP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Simulation of the Impact of New Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses

The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of surface wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data sub/wind.html. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new passive microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the current real-time airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airbome Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 x the aircraft altitude, or approximately 2 km from space). The instrument is described in a separate paper presented at this conference. The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a numerical model from the University of Miami, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. Evaluations will be presented on the relative impact of HIRAD and other instruments on H*Wind analyses, including the use of HIRAD from 2 aircraft altitudes and from a space-based platform.

Miller, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS1997

Scatterometer Observes Extratropical Transition of Pacific Typhoons

From September 15 to 25, 1996, NASA's scatterometer (NSCAT) monitored the evolution of twin typhoons-Violet and Tom-as they moved north from the western tropical Pacific, acquiring features of mid-latitude storms. The typhoons developed frontal structures, increased asymmetry, and dry air was introduced into their cores. Violet hit Japan, causing death and destruction, and Tom merged with a mid-latitude trough and evolved into a large extratropical storm with gale-force winds. We understand relatively little about the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones because of the complex thermodynamics involved, but we do know that the mid-latitude storms resulting from tropical cyclones usually generate strong winds and heavy precipitation. Since the transition usually occurs over the ocean, few measurements have been made. The transition is a fascinating science problem, but it also has important economic consequences. The transition occurs over the busiest trans-ocean shipping lanes, and when the resulting storms hit land, they usually devastate populated areas. NSCAT was successfully launched into a near-polar, sunsynchronous orbit on the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) in August 1996 from Tanegashima Space Center in Japan. NSCAT's six antennas send microwave pulses at a frequency of 14 GHz to the Earth's surface and measure the backscatter.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2003

Satellite Detection of Precipitation over the North Pacific

Intense extratropical winter cyclones often impact the West Coast of North America with strong winds and heavy precipitation. Several times during a winter season, short-term forecasts (24 - 48 hours) of these storms are seriously deficient with central pressure errors in the 10's of hPa and surface low position errors in the 100's of km. For example, 48-hr sea level pressure errors (forecast - observation) at buoy 46005 off the Oregon coast for the 2001 - 2002 winter season is plotted. In addition, two times the standard deviation (determined from pressure errors from the last four winter seasons) are also shown. It is evident from this figure that large forecast errors (i.e. greater than 10 hPa) occurred about 10 times this past winter at buoy 46005 with three events where the errors were 20 hPa. Beside large forecast errors of sea level pressure, numerical forecasts of precipitation for land falling cyclones can also be flawed. This is due in large part to the lack of accurate precipitation information over the ocean. Therefore, remote sensing techniques are the only viable option for obtaining accurate information on the distribution and intensity of precipitation over the North Pacific. Due to the radiative characteristics of precipitation sized hydrometeors at microwave frequencies, microwave sensors are able to detect precipitation over oceanic regions. Past studies have demonstrated the utility of passive microwave rainrate data for locating intense rainfall in rapidly deepening cyclones, in detecting developing polar mesocyclones and in determining frontal bands. There are currently many sources of microwave rainrate data: the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) (currently flying on three platforms), the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-B) (currently flying on NOAA-15, NOAA-16, and NOAA-17), and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI). Data will soon be available from the Advanced Microwave Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) on the Aqua platform. In this paper, we present a new technique for mapping rainrate distributions over the North Pacific utilizing rainrate estimates from several microwave sensors and upper-tropospheric winds derived from geosynchronous satellite IR data. The goal of this work is to develop a way to obtain high temporal and spatial rainfall information over the North Pacific. This information will be used to support the verification of model derived precipitation distributions and to support the analysis of in situ measurements of rainfall during the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE) field campaigns.

Smith, Jeremy↗
NASA NTRS2009

Surface Wind Vector and Rain Rate Observation Capability of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is the next-generation Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), and it will offer the capability of simultaneous wide-swath observations of both extreme ocean surface wind vector and strong precipitation from either aircraft (including UAS) or satellite platforms. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce valid wind observations under hurricane conditions when existing microwave sensors (radiometers or scatterometers) are hindered by precipitation. The SFMR i s a proven aircraft remote sensing system for simultaneously observing extreme ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates, including those of major hurricane intensity. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer technology. The first version of the instrument will be a single polarization system for wind speed and rain rate, with a dual-polarization system to follow for wind vector capability. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. HIRAD incorporates a unique, technologically advanced array antenna and several other technologies successfully demonstrated by NASA s Instrument Incubator Program. A brassboard (laboratory) version of the instrument has been completed and successfully tested in a test chamber. Development of the aircraft instrument is underway, with flight testing planned for the fall of 2009. Preliminary Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) show that HIRAD will have a significant positive impact on surface wind analyses as either a new aircraft or satellite sensor. New off-nadir data collected in 2008 by SFMR that affirms the ability of this measurement technique to obtain wind speed data at non-zero incidence angle will be presented, as well as data from the brassboard instrument chamber tests.

Miller, Timothy↗