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NASA NTRS2019

The Changing Changing-Look AGN 1ES 1927+654

We report on X-ray follow-up observations of the March 2018 nuclear transient event AT2018zf (ASASSN-18el) from an ongoing campaign that includes XMM-Newton, NuSTAR, Swift, and high cadence (daily-to-weekly) NICER observations. The event was associated with the Seyfert galaxy 1ES 1927+654, a "True Type-2" that, nevertheless, showed an X-ray spectrum typical of an unobscured Type 1 AGN. Optical monitoring revealed the emergence of broad Balmer emission lines following the outburst, suggesting a transition from a Type 2 to a Type 1 AGN on timescales consistent with the light-travel time between the central black hole and the broad line region. The optical outburst was followed by a dramatic shift in the X-ray spectrum as the hard X-ray luminosity of the corona plunged by >2 orders of magnitude and the spectrum became dominated by a 10^6 K thermal component. The subsequent X-ray evolution of 1ES 1927+654 includes an additional two-order of magnitude decline in overall luminosity, followed by an extended period of quiescence, and re-brightening to levels that make it the brightest AGN currently in the X-ray sky. Throughout its evolution, the source has displayed X-ray flux variability of factors of several on timescales less than hour, and of ~100 on timescales less than a day. The X-ray spectrum varies along a consistent luminosity-dependent track, wherein increases in flux are accompanied by a spectral hardening. We seem to be witnessing the onset of an instability in the pre-existing AGN disc and corona, followed by a still-continuing re-emergence of the corona. If the initial transient is identified as the tidal disruption of a star, it is possible that this was the instigator of this unique behavior.

Loewenstein, M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Compound High Temperature and Low Chlorophyll Extremes in the Ocean Over the Satellite Period

Ocean extreme events severely impact marine organisms and ecosystems. Of particular concern are compoundevents, i.e., when conditions are extreme for multiple potential ocean ecosystem stressors such as temperature and chlorophyll.Yet, little is known about the occurrence, intensity and duration of such compound high temperature (aka marine heatwaves -MHWs) and low chlorophyll (LChl) extreme events, whether their distributions have changed in the past decades and what thepotential drivers are. Here we use satellite-based sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration estimates to provide a5first assessment of such compound extreme events. We reveal hotspots of compound MHW and LChl events in the equatorialPacific, along the boundaries of the subtropical gyres, in the northern Indian Ocean, and around Antarctica. In these regions,compound events that typically last one week occur three to seven times more often than expected under the assumption ofindependence between MHWs and LChl events. The occurrence of compound MHW and LChl events varies on seasonalto interannual timescales. At the seasonal timescale, most compound events occur in summer in both hemispheres. At the10interannual timescale, the frequency of compound MHW and LChl events is strongly modulated by large-scale modes of naturalclimate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, whose positive phase is associated with increased compoundevent occurrence in the eastern equatorial Pacific and in the Indian Ocean by a factor of up to four. Our results provide a firstunderstanding of where, when and why compound MHW and LChl events occur. Further studies are needed to identify theexact physical and biological drivers of these potentially harmful events in the ocean and their evolution under global warming.

High Temperature↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solid-state Precipitation in Molecular Dynamics: KMC-MD Hybrid Simulations

A critical drawback of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations when modeling physical properties is the limitation to short timescales. Solid state precipitation is one behavior that is not significantly observable at timescales accessible to MD, and thus has been difficult to simulate at an MD scale. Taking inspiration from Kinetic Monte-Carlo (KMC) methods for simulating diffusion on a rigid lattice, we have developed a hybrid KMC-MD approach to enable simulation of solid-state precipitation during MD simulation implemented in LAMMPS. This method incorporates the atomic neighbor hopping behavior utilized by KMC simulations into a MD simulation with a variable local lattice configuration. By accelerating nearest-neighbor atomic hopping with this technique, solid-state precipitation can be observed at an MD timescale. Utilizing theory based on persistent-embryo methods for liquid-solid precipitation in MD we demonstrate the calculation of critical nucleus size for the gamma’ precipitation out of gamma phase in the Ni-Al system.

Molecular Dynamics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solid-state Precipitation in Molecular Dynamics: kMC-MD Hybrid Simulations

Molecular Dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2024

Discounting Water for Optimal Carbon Gain as a Basis of Stomatal Closure

The exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is regulated by stomata (small pores in the leaves of plants). Unsurprisingly, environmental factors controlling the opening and closure of stomata has been sought as early as 1800. One approach, popularized in the early 1970s, is a stomatal optimization framework. This framework is based on the hypothesis that plants optimize carbon gain subject to water loss or water availability constraints. This constraint optimization problem was solved in various forms assuming instantaneous adjustments of stomatal aperture to maximize a reward function with no future foresight or legacy effects. Holtzman et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023av001113) offers a novel approach that can diagnose the effective timescale over which the reward function maximization must be time-integrated. The developed method thus optimizes an integrated carbon gain function but adjusted by a discount factor subject to water availability in the root zone. The discount factor considers how the plant values carbon gain to save water and its timescale can be inferred from observations because the model is analytically tractable. The results suggest that the most important climate factor that determines this discount timescale is multi-annual mean of the longest dry period during the growing season. The findings highlight how local climate traits influence the spatial variation in ecosystem-level water use strategies. This sets the stage for expanding such a framework to cases where multiple constraints act in concert while operating at distinct time scales.

stomata↗

NASA NTRS2022

Investigating Stable Oxygen and Carbon Isotopic Variability in Speleothem Records Over the Last Millennium Using Multiple Isotope-Enabled Climate Models

The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

isotope-enabled simulations↗

NASA NTRS1972

Variability of the optical intensity and plane polarization of OJ 287.

Photometric and plane polarimetric observations of the radio source Oj 287 have been made in the optical region. The photometric data show variations of 0.10 mag with a timescale of 6-7 days superposed on a total decrease of approximately 0.5 mag during February 1972. The polarimetric data, which exhibit a similar decrease in plane polarization during this same period, suggest the possibility of a periodicity with a timescale of the order of 30 days.

Williams, W. L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

X-ray observations of a flare in NGC4151 from OSO-8

The 2-60 keV flux from NGC4151 changed by a factor of two on a timescale of 1.5 days. No fluctuations were detected in excess of a factor of three on timescales less than four hours. During a total observation of approximately 11 days there were no statistically significant changes in spectral shape. The spectrum was fitted by a power law with photon index alpha approximately 1.42 + or - 0.06 and column density N sub H approximately 7.5 + or - 0.5 x 10 to the 22d power at/cu cm. A 2 sigma residual to this fit implies fluorescent Fe line emission with E. W. approximately 240 eV. Both synchrotron self-Compton and thermal Compton models are consistent with the X-ray data.

Mushotzky, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Rapid X-ray variability in the Seyfert galaxy NGC 6814

The HEAO-1 A-2 high time resolution X-ray observations of the X-ray emitting Seyfert I Galaxy NGC 6814 are reported. In sharp distinction with a sample of over 30 active galactic nuclei this object showed strong X-ray variability on timescales less than 3 hours. The mean flux on a timescale of 90 minutes varied by a factor of approximately 2.5 corresponding to Delta L sub x being approximately 1 x 10 to the 43rd power ergs/sec. An autocorrelation analysis shows a characteristic time for variability of 100 (+60 or -25) seconds. There is no indication of spectral variability with an upper limit on a change in the power law spectral index of the absolute value of Delta gamma .37, for a factor two change in intensity. The constraints of such rapid variability on a wide variety of X-ray source mechanisms are considered.

Tennant, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS1982

CI Cygni since the 1980 eclipse

During the 1980 eclipse of the 855 day period symbiotic binary CI Cyg, a data set showing high excitation resonance lines which were largely uneclipsed but brightening on an orbital timescale, and intercombination lines exhibiting pronounced but nontotal eclipses and which were fading on an orbital timescale were obtained. A model invoking a low density dissipating nebula surrounding the hot companion to explain the intercombination lines, and a shock between stellar winds to interpret the resonance lines, is described. Subsequent synoptic observations revealed continuing changes in the UV emission line fluxes consistent with those described above, except for the brightening of Mg II and the emergence of strong, not previously seen Mg V emission. Post-outburst and phase dependent changes must be included in any interpretation of this system as the archetypal symbiotic binary. Observations to be made during the 1982 October eclipse are summarized.

Stencel, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

X-ray spectra and time variability of active galactic nuclei

The X-ray spectra of broad line active galactic nuclei (AGN) of all types (Seyfert I's, NELG's, broadline radio galaxies) are well fit by a power law in the .5 to 100 keV band of man energy slope alpha = .68 + or - .15. There is, as yet, no strong evidence for time variability of this slope in a given object. The constraints that this places on simple models of the central energy source are discussed. BL Lac objects have quite different X-ray spectral properties and show pronounced X-ray spectral variability. On time scales longer than 12 hours most radio quiet AGN do not show strong, delta I/I .5, variability. The probability of variability of these AGN seems to be inversely related to their luminosity. However characteristics timescales for variability have not been measured for many objects. This general lack of variability may imply that most AGN are well below the Eddington limit. Radio bright AGN tend to be more variable than radio quiet AGN on long, tau approx 6 month, timescales.

Mushotzky, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

On the detectability of key-MeV solar protons through their nonthermal Lyman-alpha emission

The intensity and timescale of nonthermal Doppler-shifted hydrogen L alpha photon emission as diagnostics of 10 keV to 10 MeV protons bombarding the solar chromosphere during flares are investigated. The steady-state excitation and ionization balance of the proton beam are determined, taking into account all important atomic interactions with the ambient chromosphere. For a proton energy flux comparable to the electron energy flux commonly inferred for large flares, L alpha wing intensities orders of magnitude larger than observed nonflaring values were found. Investigation of timescales for ionization and charge exchange leads researchers to conclude that over a wide range of values of mean proton energy and beam parameters, Doppler-shifted nonthermal L alpha emission is a useful observational diagnostic of the presence of 10 keV to 10 MeV superthermal proton beams in the solar flare chromosphere.

Canfield, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Fundamental processes in pair plasmas

The various processes that produce and destroy electron-positron pairs are reviewed, and the timescales of these processes are compared to thermalization, accretion, and cooling timescales. The various radiation spectra produced by relativistic, thermal plasmas are considered. Recent results for the equilibria available to finite, thermal relativistic plasmas with and without embedded magnetic fields are reviewed. Such plasmas, in steady state, have maximum temperatures, luminosities, and field strengths, useful diagnostics for interpreting quasars and active galaxies.

Lightman, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Constraints on short-term mantle rheology from the J2 observation and the dispersion of the 18.6 y tidal Love number

Information derived from data recently acquired from the LAGEOS satellite is used to place some constraints on the rheological parameters of short-term mantle rheology. The validity of Lambeck and Nakiboglu's (1983) rheological model is assessed by formally developing an expression for the transformed shear modulus using a truncated retardation spectrum. This analytical formula is used to show that the parameters of the above mentioned model are not consistent at all with the amount of anelastic dispersion expected in the Chandler wobble and with the attenuation of seismic normal modes. The feasibility of a standard linear solid (SLS) rheology operating over intermediate timescales between 1 and 100 yr is investigated to determine whether the tidal dispersion at 18.6 yr can be explained by this model. An attempt is made to place some constraints on the parameters of the SLS model and the nature of short-term mantle rheology for timescales of less than 100 yr is discussed.

Sabadini, R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The seasonal cycle of water on Mars

A review of the behavior of water in the Mars atmosphere and subsurface is appropriate now that data from the Mariner and Viking spacecraft have been analyzed and discussed for several years following completion of those missions. Observations and analyses pertinent to the seasonal cycle of water vapor in the atmosphere of Mars are reviewed, with attention toward transport of water and the seasonal exchange of water between the atmosphere and various non-atmospheric reservoirs. Possible seasonally-accessible sources and sinks for water include water ice on or within the seasonal and residual polar caps; surface or subsurface ice in the high-latitude regions of the planet; adsorbed or chemically-bound water within the near-surface regolith; or surface or subsurface liquid water. The stability of water within each of these reservoirs is discussed, as are the mechanisms for driving exchange of the water with the atmosphere and the timescales for exchange. Specific conclusions are reached about the distribution of water and the viability of each mechanism as a seasonal reservoir. Discussion is also included of the behavior of water on longer timescales, driven by the variations in solar forcing due to the quasi-periodic variations of the orbital obliquity. Finally, specific suggestions are made for future observations from spacecraft which would further define or constrain the seasonal cycle of water.

Jakosky, B. M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Cloud fluid models of gas dynamics and star formation in galaxies

The large dynamic range of star formation in galaxies, and the apparently complex environmental influences involved in triggering or suppressing star formation, challenges the understanding. The key to this understanding may be the detailed study of simple physical models for the dominant nonlinear interactions in interstellar cloud systems. One such model is described, a generalized Oort model cloud fluid, and two simple applications of it are explored. The first of these is the relaxation of an isolated volume of cloud fluid following a disturbance. Though very idealized, this closed box study suggests a physical mechanism for starbursts, which is based on the approximate commensurability of massive cloud lifetimes and cloud collisional growth times. The second application is to the modeling of colliding ring galaxies. In this case, the driving processes operating on a dynamical timescale interact with the local cloud processes operating on the above timescale. The results is a variety of interesting nonequilibrium behaviors, including spatial variations of star formation that do not depend monotonically on gas density.

Struck-Marcell, Curtis↗

NASA NTRS1987

A spectral view of nonlinear fluxes and stationary-transient interaction in the atmosphere

Nonlinear spectral transfers of kinetic energy and enstrophy, and stationary-transient interaction, are studied using global FGGE data for January 1979. The spectral transfers are found to be dominated by two dynamically distinct components, one due to nonlinear self-interactions within the transient flow and the other arising from coupled interactions between the stationary and transient parts of the flow. The former seems to be attributable to two-dimensional homogeneous turbulence, while the second cannot be understood within that theory. It is argued that the mixed stationary-transient interactions can be understood physically as a process of shear-induced spectral transfer of transient enstrophy along lines of constant zonal wavenumber. The transients act mainly to strengthen the stationary flow, and this 'forcing' operates on a timescale comparable to presumed viscous timescales.

Shepherd, Theodore G.↗