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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2026

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Capability Maturity Levels for Ecosystems Enabling Digital Transformation

Digital engineering (DE) and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) are widely recognized as critical enablers of faster, more affordable, and more reliable aerospace systems. However, many organizations have struggled to realize the promised return on investment (ROI) from digital initiatives. A primary reason is the absence of a shared, decision-focused framework that distinguishes simple digitization of existing workflows from true digital transformation that fundamentally changes how engineering decisions are made. This paper introduces an ICME capability maturity framework that fills this gap. The framework defines six cumulative ICME capability maturity levels (CMLs), explicitly tied to decision authority, engineering integration, optimization, and uncertainty management across material, process, structure, and performance scales. It is designed to complement established readiness metrics such as technology readiness levels (TRLs), manufacturing readiness levels (MRLs), and integration readiness levels (IRLs), by addressing a missing dimension: the conditions required for model-informed decision authority across scales. A unifying figure and capability table illustrate the six-level ICME Capability Maturity Framework, showing how organizations progress from digitization—with limited or negative ROI—to true digital transformation, where ICME-enabled workflows deliver measurable improvements in decision quality, cycle time, risk reduction, and reuse. The framework is intended for both technical practitioners and executive leadership, providing a common language to assess current state, guide roadmaps, align software ecosystem investments, and set realistic expectations for digital transformation outcomes. A regulatory-relevant statement clarifying the relationship between ICME capability and existing certification frameworks is provided.

ICME↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

"Uncertainty analysis itself is uncertain, therefore, you cannot evaluate it exactly," Source Uncertain Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

Britton, Paul T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A genomic data archive from the Network for Pancreatic Organ donors with Diabetes

The Network for Pancreatic Organ donors with Diabetes (nPOD) is the largest biorepository of human pancreata and associated immune organs from donors with type 1 diabetes (T1D), maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY), cystic fibrosis-related diabetes (CFRD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), gestational diabetes, islet autoantibody positivity (AAb+), and without diabetes. nPOD recovers, processes, analyzes, and distributes high-quality biospecimens, collected using optimized standard operating procedures, and associated de-identified data/metadata to researchers around the world. Herein describes the release of high-parameter genotyping data from this collection. 372 donors were genotyped using a custom precision medicine single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) microarray. Data were technically validated using published algorithms to evaluate donor relatedness, ancestry, imputed HLA, and T1D genetic risk score. Additionally, 207 donors were assessed for rare known and novel coding region variants via whole exome sequencing (WES). These data are publicly-available to enable genotype-specific sample requests and the study of novel genotype:phenotype associations, aiding in the mission of nPOD to enhance understanding of diabetes pathogenesis to promote the development of novel therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Advisory Committee on the Redesign of the Space Station

The Space Station Program was initiated in 1984 to provide for permanent human presence in an orbiting laboratory. This program evolved into Space Station Freedom, later identified as a component to facilitate a return of astronauts to the Moon, followed by the exploration of Mars. In March 1993 the Clinton Administration directed NASA to undertake an intense effort to redesign the space station at a substantial cost savings relative to Space Station Freedom. The Advisory Committee on the Redesign of the Space Station was established in March 1993 to provide independent assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the redesign options. The results of the Committee's work is described. Discussion describes the mission that the Administration has articulated for the Space Station Program and the scientific and technical characteristics that a redesigned station must possess to fulfill those objectives. A description of recommended management, operations, and acquisition strategies for the redesigned program is provided. The Committee's assessment of the redesign options against five criteria are presented. The five criteria are technical capabilities, research capabilities, schedule, cost, and risk. A discussion of general mission risk is included.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2021

Los Alamos National Laboratory Floodplain Assessment for Fire Risk Mitigations at the Lower Slobbovia Testing Site in (TA-36)

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is proposing to take fire pre-suppression actions at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Technical Area (TA) 36. Constructing a fire break and a fuel break surrounding the Lower Slobbovia explosives testing site in addition to the current vegetation mowing practices would establish a safety perimeter to help prevent fires from spreading away from the firing point. NNSA has prepared this floodplain assessment in accordance with 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 1022 Compliance with Floodplain and Wetland Environmental Review Requirements (10 CFR 1022), which was promulgated to implement DOE requirements under Executive Order 11988 Floodplain Management (EO 1977). A floodplain is defined in 10 CFR 1022 as “the lowlands adjoining inland and coastal waters and relatively flat areas and flood prone areas of offshore islands,” and a base floodplain as “the 100-year floodplain, that is, a floodplain with a 1.0 percent chance of flooding in any given year (CFR 2003).” This floodplain assessment evaluates potential impacts to floodplain values and functions from implementation of the proposed action, identifies alternatives to the Proposed Action, and allows for meaningful public comment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative evaluation of common cause failures in high safety-significant safety-related digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants

Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems at nuclear power plants (NPPs) have many advantages over analog systems. They are proven to be more reliable, cheaper, and easier to maintain given obsolescence of analog components. However, they also pose new engineering and technical challenges, such as possibility of common cause failures (CCFs) unique to digital systems. Here this paper proposes a Platform for Risk Assessment of DI&C (PRADIC) that is developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A methodology for evaluation of software CCFs in high safety-significant safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs was developed as part of the framework. The framework integrates three stages of a typical risk assessment—qualitative hazard analysis and quantitative reliability and consequence analyses. The quantified risks compared with respective acceptance criteria provide valuable insights for system architecture alternatives allowing design optimization in terms of risk reduction and cost savings. A comprehensive case study performed to demonstrate the framework's capabilities is documented here in this paper. Results show that the PRADIC is a powerful tool capable to identify potential digital-based CCFs, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their impacts on system and plant safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local limits of detection for anthropogenic aerosol-cloud interactions

Ship tracks are quasi-linear cloud patterns produced from the interaction of ship emissions with low boundary layer clouds. They are visible throughout the diurnal cycle in satellite images from space-borne assets like the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABI) aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). However, complex atmospheric dynamics often make it difficult to identify and characterize the formation and evolution of tracks. Ship tracks have the potential to increase a cloud's albedo and reduce the impact of global warming. Thus, it is important to study these patterns to better understand the complex atmospheric interactions between aerosols and clouds to improve our climate models, and examine the efficacy of climate interventions, such as marine cloud brightening. Over the course of this 3-year project, we have developed novel data-driven techniques that advance our ability to assess the effects of ship emissions on marine environments and the risks of future marine cloud brightening efforts. The three main innovative technical contributions we will document here are a method to track aerosol injections using optical flow, a stochastic simulation model for track formations and an automated detection algorithm for efficient identification of ship tracks in large datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Planetary Protection and Mars Exploration

Planetary spacecraft to explore Mars are subject to international and NASA policy regarding biological cleanliness. This policy is referred to as planetary protection and it establishes guidelines to prevent biological cross-contamination of planets during solar system exploration missions. Mars mission designs and exploration strategies are incomplete without consideration of planetary protection. In this paper, the foundation for planetary protection policy will be reviewed and key issues identified. Existing guidelines governing both forward and back contamination will be summarized. Various Mars exploration scenarios will be examined and the impact of planetary protection requirements will be assessed. Technical issues that need resolution will also be identified. Finally, there will be a discussion of anticipated public attitudes concerning the risk of back contamination from Mars sample return missions.

DeVincenzi, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Framework for Assessment of Aviation Safety Technology Portfolios

The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.

Jones, Sharon M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Global Cost and Weight Evaluation of Fuselage Side Panel Design Concepts

This report documents preliminary design trades conducted under NASA contracts NAS1 18889 (Advanced Technology Composite Aircraft Structures, ATCAS) and NAS1-19349 (Task 3, Pathfinder Shell Design) for a subsonic wide body commercial aircraft fuselage side panel section utilizing composite materials. Included in this effort were (1) development of two complete design concepts, (2) generation of cost and weight estimates, (3) identification of technical issues and potential design enhancements, and (4) selection of a single design to be further developed. The first design concept featured an open-section stringer stiffened skin configuration while the second was based on honeycomb core sandwich construction. The trade study cost and weight results were generated from comprehensive assessment of each structural component comprising the fuselage side panel section from detail fabrication through airplane final assembly. Results were obtained in three phases: (1) for the baseline designs, (2) after global optimization of the designs, and (3) the results anticipated after detailed design optimization. A critical assessment of both designs was performed to determine the risk associated with each concept, that is the relative probability of achieving the cost and weight projections. Seven critical technical issues were identified as the first step towards side panel detailed design optimization.

Polland, D. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing Risk Analysis of Accidental Release Using CFD Modeling and Machine Learning

This project report presents the results from the AU31 project that is entitled “Enhancing Risk Analysis of Accidental Release Using CFD Modeling and Machine Learning” performed between FY2021 and FY2022. The technical objective of this project is to enhance risk analysis of accidental release of radioactive materials and provide novel risk forecasting and capabilities for assessing unplanned hazardous chemical releases for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The approach includes a cross-platform finite element analysis of airborne chemical release, machine learning (ML) for simulation and forecasting, and a big data approach to data management, transformation and analysis capable of handling petabyte-scale unstructured and structured data. The outcome of these findings were assembled and accessible as a final output via an intuitive web hosted geospatial-based user interface for demonstration and general dissemination. These new results also provide a mechanism of combining this knowledge in a risk analysis framework tool. The geospatial analysis and output can utilize 5 years of qualified meteorological data to illustrate projected plume footprints that are generated from computational aspects of this study. Specifically, we show the development of a geospatial risk analysis capabilities to respond to and plan for accidental release of radioactive materials and to provide a risk forecasting tool for assessing hazardous chemical releases for the DOE. The focus of this effort is germane to common practices in risk analysis; and it is highly relevant to the timely and transparent release of information related to materials at risk including hazardous materials and chemical vapors and rapid assessment of the potential impacts on the workforce at active sites across the DOE complex.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mixed-Mechanism Stimulation Enabled Enhanced Geothermal Systems (CRADA FP00007509 Final Report)

In this project, we aimed to develop a robust, novel EGS design that would enable broad deployment of geothermal energy at costs competitive with other sources of renewable energy. The technical objectives included developing reservoir models for synthetic geothermal systems that meet target reservoir performance characteristics, performing a quantitative assessment of selection criteria for candidate geothermal sites, perform proppant studies under relevant geothermal conditions, and complete an induced seismicity risk analysis for potential geothermal development sites. The project team made significant progress towards these objectives. Specifically, we developed a prioritization to rank candidate sites for suitability of our technology based on 10 separate technical, operational, logistic, regulatory, and commercial criteria. The team performed laboratory testing at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to characterize the functionality of several different types of proppant materials at temperatures of up to 200 C for durations of up to 9 weeks. We also created an Induced Seismicity Mitigation Plan for the top two sites selected for our future field demonstrations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regulatory Decision-Making Process Using 'Weight of Evidence: An Evidence Integration Approach' by the State of Washington at the Hanford Site - 20163

Performance Assessment and Environmental Impact Statement Modeling, Human and Ecological Risk Assessments are the tools used by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) to make regulatory decisions for permitting and cleanup. These efforts all inherently have large amounts of uncertainty no matter how many alternative approaches are attempted. Professional feedback from tribal governments, stakeholders, federal and state regulators, the public and independent peer review groups are taken into account in this process of informed decision making. The process also includes full evaluation of the comments and the associated reviews made by the various peer review groups such as the Low -Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group (DOE order 435.1) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The evolution of technology has produced quicker and more efficient fate and transport modeling tools with related quantification of uncertainties and their significance. Groundwater and vadose zone models have been expanded across the entire Hanford site. Many of the technical approaches identified in the Washington State Regulations are updated using current knowledge to better understand the complexities of the Hanford Site using the latest state of the art tools for risk assessment and modeling. More emphasis and time are directed on defining uncertainty and then managing the uncertainty. One added tool is to run sensitivity cases based on informed decision making. The weight of evidence approach considers all relevant information in an integrative assessment that takes into account the kinds of evidence available, the quality and quantity, the uncertainty and error associated with each type, and how they fit together. Evidence of integration involves looking at systematic reviews and evaluating their strengths and weaknesses. In conclusion, Ecology, Washington State's lead regulatory agency at the Hanford site, has had to modify its site closure approach compared to the rest of the state. A more holistic approach dealing with the Hanford site as an integrated system has evolved leading to a defensible informed approach for regulatory closure decisions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2006

Manned Spacecraft Requirements for Materials and Processes

A major cause of project failure can be attributed to an emphasized focus on end products and inadequate attention to resolving development risks during the initial phases of a project. The initial phases of a project, which we will call the "study period", are critical to determining project scope and costs, and can make or break most projects. If the requirements are not defined adequately, how can the scope be adequately determined, also how can the costs of the entire project be effectively estimated, and how can the risk of project success be accurately assessed? Using the proper material specifications and standards and incorporating these specifications and standards in the design process should be considered inherently crucial to the technical success of a project as just as importantly, crucial to the cost and schedule success. This paper will intertwine several important aspects or considerations for project success: 1) Characteristics of a "Good Material Requirement"; 2) Linking material requirements to the implementation of "Design for Manufacturing"; techniques and 3) The importance of decomposing materials requirements during the study phase/development phase to mitigate project risk for the maturation of technologies before the building of hardware.

Vaughn, Timothy P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗
NASA NTRS2002

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd-generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗
DOE OSTI2021

Methods for the Enhancement of Security Probabilistic Risk Assessments

The US Department of Energy is exploring the methods associated with probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and how they could be used to enhance physical security evaluations for nuclear facilities. A brief review of both international and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission physical security assessment methods is presented. From this review, and with an understanding of the technical elements associated with a traditional nuclear safety PRA, several observations are made pertaining to where physical security analysis methods could be enhanced. These observations principally support and enhance the answers within a physical security context to the risk triplet: (1) What can go wrong? (2) What is the likelihood? and (3) What are the consequences? Finally, benefits and technical challenges toward the development of a full security PRA are presented.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗