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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

OpenSn: A massively parallel, open-source simulation environment for discrete ordinates radiation transport

OpenSn is an open-source, massively parallel deterministic radiation transport code for solving the discrete-ordinates ( S N ) form of the Boltzmann transport equation on unstructured, arbitrary polyhedral meshes. It supports high-fidelity simulations involving steady-state, eigenvalue, and adjoint problems for neutral particles (e.g., neutrons, photons, multi-particles), using the multigroup approximation in energy. OpenSn combines angular discretization via discrete ordinates with a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method (DGFEM) in space, enabling accurate resolution of transport physics on arbitrary polyhedral cells, included locally refined spatial grids. It includes multiple angular quadrature types, including locally refined angular quadratures. Written in modern C++ with a Python API, OpenSn runs efficiently on platforms ranging from laptops to supercomputers. The transport sweep algorithm is implemented using a task-based, directed-acyclic-graph (DAG) approach for each angle and supports asynchronous parallelism across thousands of MPI ranks. Group-set aggregation improves compute intensity, and synthetic acceleration techniques (e.g., diffusion synthetic acceleration, second-moment method) enhance solver convergence. OpenSn has been verified on reactor physics problems and demonstrated excellent weak and strong scaling performance on more than 32,768 processes, making it a versatile and robust platform for large-scale transport simulations in complex geometries.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phase contrast imaging measurements and numerical simulations of turbulent density fluctuations in gas-fuelled ECRH discharges in Wendelstein 7-X

The fundamental nature of turbulent density fluctuations in standard Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator discharges is investigated experimentally via phase contrast imaging (PCI) in combination with gyrokinetic simulations with the code GENE. We find that density fluctuations are ion-temperature-gradient-driven and radially localised in the outer half of the plasma. It is shown that the line-integrated PCI measurements cover the right range of wavenumbers and a favourable toroidal and poloidal location to capture some of the strongest density fluctuations in W7-X. Due to the radial localisation of fluctuations, measured wavenumber–frequency spectra exhibit a dominant phase velocity, which can be related to the E × B rotation velocity at the radial position of a well in the neoclassical radial electric field. The match is robust against variations of heating power and line-integrated density, which is partly due to the localisation of fluctuations and partly due to effects of the radial gradient in the E × B velocity profile on the wavenumber–frequency spectrum. The latter effect is studied with a newly built synthetic PCI diagnostic and global gyrokinetic simulations with GENE-3D.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Sensitivity of GPz Estimates of Photo-z Posterior PDFs to Realistically Complex Training Set Imperfections

The accurate estimation of photometric redshifts is crucial to many upcoming galaxy surveys, for example, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Almost all Rubin extragalactic and cosmological science requires accurate and precise calculation of photometric redshifts; many diverse approaches to this problem are currently in the process of being developed, validated, and tested. In this work, we use the photometric redshift code GPz to examine two realistically complex training set imperfections scenarios for machine learning based photometric redshift calculation: (i) where the spectroscopic training set has a very different distribution in color–magnitude space to the test set, and (ii) where the effect of emission line confusion causes a fraction of the training spectroscopic sample to not have the true redshift. By evaluating the sensitivity of GPz to a range of increasingly severe imperfections, with a range of metrics (both of photo-z point estimates as well as posterior probability distribution functions, PDFs), we quantify the degree to which predictions get worse with higher degrees of degradation. In particular, we find that there is a substantial drop-off in photo-z quality when line-confusion goes above ~1%, and sample incompleteness below a redshift of 1.5, for an experimental setup using data from the Buzzard Flock synthetic sky catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Co‑cultivation of the anaerobic fungus Caecomyces churrovis with Methanobacterium bryantii enhances transcription of carbohydrate binding modules, dockerins, and pyruvate formate lyases on specific substrates

Abstract Anaerobic fungi and methanogenic archaea are two classes of microorganisms found in the rumen microbiome that metabolically interact during lignocellulose breakdown. Here, stable synthetic co-cultures of the anaerobic fungus Caecomyces churrovis and the methanogen Methanobacterium bryantii (not native to the rumen) were formed, demonstrating that microbes from different environments can be paired based on metabolic ties. Transcriptional and metabolic changes induced by methanogen co-culture were evaluated in C. churrovis across a variety of substrates to identify mechanisms that impact biomass breakdown and sugar uptake. A high-quality genome of C. churrovis was obtained and annotated, which is the first sequenced genome of a non-rhizoid-forming anaerobic fungus. C. churrovis possess an abundance of CAZymes and carbohydrate binding modules and, in agreement with previous studies of early-diverging fungal lineages, N6-methyldeoxyadenine (6mA) was associated with transcriptionally active genes. Co-culture with the methanogen increased overall transcription of CAZymes, carbohydrate binding modules, and dockerin domains in co-cultures grown on both lignocellulose and cellulose and caused upregulation of genes coding associated enzymatic machinery including carbohydrate binding modules in family 18 and dockerin domains across multiple growth substrates relative to C. churrovis monoculture. Two other fungal strains grown on a reed canary grass substrate in co-culture with the same methanogen also exhibited high log2-fold change values for upregulation of genes encoding carbohydrate binding modules in families 1 and 18. Transcriptional upregulation indicated that co-culture of the C. churrovis strain with a methanogen may enhance pyruvate formate lyase (PFL) function for growth on xylan and fructose and production of bottleneck enzymes in sugar utilization pathways, further supporting the hypothesis that co-culture with a methanogen may enhance certain fungal metabolic functions. Upregulation of CBM18 may play a role in fungal–methanogen physical associations and fungal cell wall development and remodeling.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Machine Learning Approach to Disentangle Multitemperature Regions in Galaxy Clusters

The hot intracluster medium (ICM) surrounding the heart of galaxy clusters is a complex medium that comprises various emitting components. Although previous studies of nearby galaxy clusters, such as the Perseus, the Coma, or the Virgo cluster, have demonstrated the need for multiple thermal components when spectroscopically fitting the ICM’s X-ray emission, no systematic methodology for calculating the number of underlying components currently exists. In turn, underestimating or overestimating the number of components can cause systematic errors in the emission parameter estimations. In this paper, we present a novel approach to determining the number of components using an amalgam of machine learning techniques. Synthetic spectra containing a various number of underlying thermal components were created using well-established tools available from the Chandra X-ray Observatory. The dimensions of the training set was initially reduced using principal component analysis and then categorized based on the number of underlying components using a random forest classifier. Our trained and tested algorithm was subsequently applied to Chandra X-ray observations of the Perseus cluster. Our results demonstrate that machine learning techniques can efficiently and reliably estimate the number of underlying thermal components in the spectra of galaxy clusters, regardless of the thermal model (MEKAL versus APEC). We also confirm that the core of the Perseus cluster contains a mix of differing underlying thermal components. We emphasize that although this methodology was trained and applied on Chandra X-ray observations, it is readily portable to other current (e.g., XMM-Newton, eROSITA) and upcoming (e.g., Athena, Lynx, XRISM) X-ray telescopes. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/XtraAstronomy/Pumpkin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phase-curve Pollution of Exoplanet Transit Depths

The next generation of space telescopes will enable transformative science to understand the nature and origin of exoplanets. In particular, transit spectroscopy will reveal the chemical composition of the exoplanet atmospheres with unprecedented detail thanks to precise measurements of the visible-to-infrared transit depths down to 10 parts per million. Such a level of instrumental precision raises the challenge to obtain even more precise astrophysical models so as not to significantly influence the interpretation of the observed data. We must therefore critically revisit some of the commonly accepted assumptions that were adequate for analyzing past and current observations. A common approximation in the analysis of exoplanetary primary transits is that the planet does not contribute to the recorded flux, so-called dark planet hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the dark planet hypothesis on the parameters obtained from the analysis of transits with particular attention to the transit depth. We develop mathematical formulae and release new software to estimate the magnitude of the potential bias. These tools will be useful in the preparation of observing proposals, as well as within the scientific consortia of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) missions. We probe the accuracy of the mathematical formulae through the analysis of synthetic observations with the JWST Mid-InfraRed Instrument. We find that self-blending from nightside emission attenuates the transit depth by >3σ for some of the known exoplanet systems, in agreement with previous work. An additional unreported effect caused by the nightside rotating into view can also impart a significant effect, but in the opposite direction (increasing the transit depth); this effect can largely be removed with conventional detrending practices, at the expense of a slight increase in noise, and mixing astrophysical variations and instrumental drifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

FluxRETAP: a REaction TArget Prioritization genome-scale modeling technique for selecting genetic targets

MOTIVATION: Metabolic engineering is rapidly evolving as a result of new advances in synthetic biology tools and automation platforms that enable high throughput strain construction, as well as the development of machine learning tools (ML) for biology. However, selecting genetic engineering targets that effectively guide the metabolic engineering process is still challenging. ML can provide predictive power for synthetic biology, but current technical limitations prevent the independent use of ML approaches without previous biological knowledge. RESULTS: Here, we present FluxRETAP, a simple and computationally inexpensive method that leverages the prior mechanistic knowledge embedded in genome-scale models for suggesting targets for genetic overexpression, downregulation or deletion, with the final goal of increasing the production of a desired metabolite. This method can provide a list of desirable engineering targets that can be combined with current ML pipelines. FluxRETAP captured 100% of reaction targets experimentally verified to improve Escherichia coli isoprenol production, 50% of targets that experimentally improved taxadiene production in E. coli and ∼60% of genetic targets from a verified minimal constrained cut-set in Pseudomonas putida, while providing additional high priority targets that could be tested. Overall, FluxRETAP is an efficient algorithm for identifying a prioritized list of testable genetic and reaction targets. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: FluxRETAP is implemented in python and released under the creative commons license. The implementation and code are freely available at: https://github.com/JBEI/FluxRETAP.

Czajka, Jeffrey J↗
DOE OSTI2025

wa-hls4ml and lui-gnn: A benchmark and GNN-based surrogate model for hls4ml resource and latency estimation

As machine learning (ML) increasingly serves as a tool for addressing real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced tooling has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as model synthesis, are now becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To reduce these emerging constraints, multiple efforts are being launched toward designing an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of synthesized accelerator architectures. This model would reduce the design iteration time, especially when designing within a set of given hardware constraints. This approach shows considerable potential, but as it stands, the effort is early and would benefit from coordination and standardization to assist future work as it emerges. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of more than 100,000 fully connected neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. In addition to the resource utilization and latency data provided, the dataset includes generated artifacts and log files for many of the synthesized neural networks, in order to support future research in ML-based code generation. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, as well as the average performance across a subset of the dataset. We measure the performance of a given predictor model through multiple metrics, including $R^2$ score and SMAPE on regression tasks, as well as inference time to further characterize the estimator under test. Additionally, we introduce the latency/utilization inference graph neural network (lui-gnn), a surrogate model that uses a graph neural network to represent input architectures in the form of a directed graph. This graph representation allows for a diverse set of model architectures to all be effectively handled by a surrogate model. We present the architecture and performance of the model, as evaluated by the new proposed benchmark, including SMAPE, $R^2$ score, and inference times, and find that lui-gnn generally predicts latency and utilization for the 75\% quantile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset, indicating that this approach of estimating resource and latency via a surrogate models has promise and warrants further research.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

How do supernova remnants cool? – I. Morphology, optical emission lines, and shocks

ABSTRACT Supernovae (SNe) inject ∼1051 erg in the interstellar medium, thereby shocking and heating the gas. A substantial fraction of this energy is later lost via radiative cooling. We present a post-processing module for the flash code to calculate the cooling radiation from shock-heated gas using collisional excitation data from mappings v. When applying this tool to a simulated SN remnant (SNR), we find that most energy is emitted in the EUV. However, optical emission lines ([O iii], [N ii], [S ii], H α, H β) are usually best observable. Our shock detection scheme shows that [S ii] and [N ii] emissions arise from the thin shell surrounding the SNR, while [O iii], H $\rm \alpha$, and H $\rm \beta$ originate from the volume-filling hot gas inside the SNR bubble. We find that the optical emission lines are affected by the SNR’s complex structure and its projection on to the plane of the sky because the escaping line luminosity can be reduced by 10–80 per cent due to absorption along the line of sight. Additionally, the subtraction of contaminating background radiation is required for the correct classification of an SNR on the oxygen or sulphur BPT diagrams. The electron temperature and density obtained from our synthetic observations match well with the simulation but are very sensitive to the assumed metallicity.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Path-Integrated X-Ray Images for Multi-Surface Digital Image Correlation (PI-DIC)

X-ray imaging offers unique possibilities for Digital Image Correlation (DIC), opening the door for full-field deformation measurements of a test article in complex environments where optical DIC suffers severe biases or is impossible. While X-ray DIC has been performed in the past with standard DIC codes designed for optical images, the path-integrated nature of X-ray images places constraints on the experimental setup, predominantly that only a single surface of interest moves/deforms. These requirements are difficult to realize for many practical situations and limit the amount of information that can be garnered in a single test. Other X-ray based diagnostics such as Digital Volume Correlation (DVC) and Projection DVC (P-DVC) overcome these obstacles, but DVC is limited to quasi-static tests, and both DVC and P-DVC necessitate high-resolution computed tomography (CT) scan(s) and often require a potentially invasive pattern throughout the volume of the specimen. Here this work presents a novel approach to measure time-resolved displacements and strains on multiple surfaces from a single series of 2D, path-integrated (PI) X-ray images, called PI-DIC. The principle of optical flow or conservation of intensity—the foundation of DIC—was reframed for path-integrated images, for an exemplar setup comprised of two plates moving and deforming independently. Synthetic images were generated for rigid translations, rigid rotations, and uniform stretches, where each plate underwent a unique motion/deformation. Experimental specimens were fabricated (either an aluminum plate with tantalum features or a plastic plate with steel features) and the two specimens were independently translated. PI-DIC was successfully demonstrated with the synthetic images and validated with the experimental images. Prescribed displacements were recovered for each plate from the single set of path-integrated, deformed images. Errors were approximately 0.02 px for the synthetic images with 1.5% image noise, and 0.05 px for the experimental images. These results provide the foundation for PI-DIC to measure motion and deformation of multiple, independent surfaces with subpixel accuracy from a single series of path-integrated X-ray images.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelling dust transport in DIII-D with DTOKS-Upgrade

Comprehensive upgrades to the dust transport code Dust in TOKamaks (DTOKS) that extend the plasma-dust interaction model are presented and compared with recent measurements of dust transport in DIII-D. Simulations incorporating variation in physical properties of graphite dust with temperature and size in a stationary plasma background suggest a substantial decrease in lifetimes due principally to thermal expansion. The trajectories of 53 dust grains identified from analysis of visible camera data taken across two similar shots were used to measure the dust particle velocity distributions. Dust tracks terminated mostly at the outer divertor strike point having a mean observation time of 2.1 ± 0.4 ms. Stochastic modelling of 200 graphite dust particles in the DIII-D tokamak performed with DTOKS-U using plasma simulations generated by OEDGE found similar behaviour, with particles ablating rapidly after acquiring a positive charge in the region close to the outer strike point, creating an acute source of neutral carbon atoms. The simulated mean lifetime, 11 ± 2 ms, showed approximate agreement with experimental observation when corrected by accounting for dust visibility and ignoring the longest trajectories 1.5 ± 0.2 ms. Synthetic diagnostic data generated from coupling the results of DTOKS-U with the visualisation software Calcam offers a powerful new tool for validation of simulations and predictive calculations of dust dynamics.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microbial Biomass in Soils Receiving Varying Levels of Organic Inputs - A Data Compilation

This dataset contains soil microbial biomass data compiled from published laboratory studies and field manipulations of organic inputs to soils. Each study included at least three levels of a given type of organic input applied to a given type of soil. Studies were selected from the literature that had experimentally manipulated organic input rates to soils using unburned, non-synthetic material (e.g. plant litters, manures, and composts). Fifty-five (55) studies, conducted from 1997 to October 2019, were chosen and compiled into a dataset with 358 observations from 96 combinations of a given organic material applied to a given soil in agricultural systems, laboratory incubations, forests, or grasslands. • Studies were selected when biomass measurements used the chloroform fumigation-extraction procedure followed by carbon analysis, or, in two instances, studies estimated microbial biomass using phospholipid fatty acid analysis. • Studies that used fewer than three input rates or characterized microbial biomass via substrate induced respiration were excluded. • The temporal and spatial aspects of the laboratory and field studies were not essential to the analyses (Craig et al., 2021) and were not included with the measurement data. These data were used to assess the relationship between organic input amounts and microbial biomass. Complete reference citations are provided if additional information is needed. The compiled data are provided in two .csv files: (1) soil treatments and microbial biomass data and (2) literature citations. The “Study” field is the cross reference between files. Also provided is the R code for reproducing the results in the related publication.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid discovery and evolution of nanosensors containing fluorogenic amino acids

Binding-activated optical sensors are powerful tools for imaging, diagnostics, and biomolecular sensing. However, biosensor discovery is slow and requires tedious steps in rational design, screening, and characterization. Here we report on a platform that streamlines biosensor discovery and unlocks directed nanosensor evolution through genetically encodable fluorogenic amino acids (FgAAs). Building on the classical knowledge-based semisynthetic approach, we engineer ~15 kDa nanosensors that recognize specific proteins, peptides, and small molecules with up to 100-fold fluorescence increases and subsecond kinetics, allowing real-time and wash-free target sensing and live-cell bioimaging. An optimized genetic code expansion chemistry with FgAAs further enables rapid (~3 h) ribosomal nanosensor discovery via the cell-free translation of hundreds of candidates in parallel and directed nanosensor evolution with improved variant-specific sensitivities (up to ~250-fold) for SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Altogether, this platform could accelerate the discovery of fluorogenic nanosensors and pave the way to modify proteins with other non-standard functionalities for diverse applications.

Biosensors↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Drivers Water Shortage in the Los Angeles Region During Drought

The code and detailed step-by-step instructions for generating the model output data, processing results, and analysis and plotting are provided at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. The PyArtes model is a python adaptation of the Artes model. PyArtes uses many of the same input data and optimization model architecture as Artes. Documentation for the PyArtes model is provided in the Supplement to the paper. The primary data product are simulated monthly water shortages for indoor and outdoor demand under a large ensemble of drought scenarios (>13,000). The droughts are hypothetical and are not based on historical time series data of supply sources - though historical data did help inform ranges explored for supply parameters. Demands are informed by recent 2017-2021 water supply data. Demands used for the model can be accessed at https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2026_ER_Water. Simulations resolve demand for over 90 water providers in the study region. The results report 36 months of water shortage data for each indoor and outdoor demand node. The study also developed a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network trained on a subset of the simulated shortage ensemble to emulate worst annual water shortage for a given set of parameter multipliers -- provided the parameter values fall within the ranges sampled in the ensemble. Emulated water shortages for synthetic ensembles are in the MLP-generated shortages folder. The MLP model was used to generate larger ensembles to support Sobol analysis that would have been extremely computationally expensive to simulate. Datasets provided in this repository*: Simulated shortages. These results are used for the analysis for Figures 5, 8, and 9 in the paper, and also to train the MLP emulator. .zip file containing outputs for the 13,312 scenario ensemble. Separate .csv files for indoor and outdoor shortage for each scenario. Rows = demand ids (~100), Columns = months (36) Units = acre-feet/month of shortage (shortage = monthly demand - supply). 1 acft = 1233.48 m^3 .csv files of aggregated shortages derived from the 13,312 ensemble Rows = scenarios (13,312), Columns = demand ids (~100) Units = acre-feet/year (either worst annual shortage or total shortage over the 3-year drought) .csv file of the parameter multipliers scenarios for the ensemble .csv file of the parameter ranges and baseline values the multipliers were applied to MLP-generated shortages. These results are used for Figures 4, 6, and 7 in the paper. mwd higher folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results Emulated shortages. Rows = scenarios, columns = demand ids, units acft Sobol results. Rows = demand ids, columns Sobol (S1, ST, or 95% confidence interval) value for each parameter mwd lower folder: scenario ensembles, emulated worst year total shortages (acft), and Sobol results same organization as mwd higher MLP performance: performance metrics (R^2, RMSE, BIAS, MAPE) for the testing subset (20% or 2,662 scenarios) and simulated vs emulated worst year shortage (acre-feet/year) for every demand node, MWD wholesale regions, and the entire study region (LAC). Supporting data for figures. Figure plotting scripts in the associated GitHub repo. These files support analysis and visualization. Geospatial Data used for plotting simulated water shortages and Sobol results. Dictionary of full names for demand nodes in the model and estimates of water supply by source type informed by Artes input files and California Urban Water Management Planning data: https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Water-Use-And-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Use-Efficiency/Urban-Water-Management-Plans *Readme files provided for each folder.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric Transmission Spectroscopy of Hot Jupiter KELT-10b using Synthetic Telluric Correction Software

High-resolution spectroscopic visible data were obtained with the Ultraviolet and Visible Echelle Spectrograph on the Very Large Telescope. Our goal was to analyze the data in an effort to detect the presence of sodium in the atmosphere of hot Jupiter exoplanet KELT-10b, as well as characterize the orbit of the planet via the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect. Eighty spectra were collected during a single transit of KELT-10b. After standard spectroscopic calibration using ESO-Reflex, the synthetic telluric modeling software molecfit was applied to remove terrestrial atmospheric effects, and to refine the wavelength calibration. Sodium is recognized by its characteristic absorption doublet located at 5895.924 and 5889.951 Å, which can be seen in the planet atmosphere transmission spectrum and through excess absorption during the transit. The radial velocity of the host star was analyzed by measuring the average shift of absorption features from spectrum to spectrum. Our results indicate a sodium detection in the planet transmission spectrum with a line contrast of 0.66% and 0.43% ± 0.09% for the sodium DII and DI lines, respectively. Excess absorption measurements agree to within one half combined standard deviation between the planet transmission spectrum (0.143% ± 0.020%, a 7σ detection) and during the time series (0.124% ± 0.034%, a 3.6σ detection) in a band 1.25 Å wide. The wavelength grid corrections provided by molecfit were insufficient to determine radial velocities and measure the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 4.1 Technical Reference Manual

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.1. The two most significant changes for HyRAM+ version 4.1 from HyRAM+ version 4.0 are direct incorporation of unconfined overpressure into the QRA calculations and modification of the models for cryogenic liquid flow through an orifice. In QRA mode, the user no longer needs to input peak overpressure and impulse values that were calculated separately; rather, the unconfined overpressure is estimated for the given system inputs, leak size, and occupant location. The orifice flow model now solves for the maximum mass flux through the orifice at constant entropy while conserving energy, which does not require a direct speed of sound calculation. This does not affect the mass flow for all-gaseous releases; the method results in the same speed of sound for choked flow. However, this method does result in a higher (and more realistic) mass flow rate for a given leak size for liquid releases than was previously calculated.

08 HYDROGEN↗