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PINNSTRIPES (Physics-Informed Neural Network SurrogaTe for Rapidly Identifying Parameters in Energy Systems) [SWR-22-12]

Energy systems models typically take the form of complex partial differential equations which make multiple forward calculations prohibitively expensive. Fast and data-efficient construction of surrogate models is of utmost importance for applications that require parameter exploration such as design optimization and Bayesian calibration. In presence of a large number of parameters, surrogate models that capture correct dependencies may be difficult to construct with traditional techniques. The issue is addressed here with the formulation of the surrogate model constructed via Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) which capture the dependence with respect to the parameters to estimate, while using a limited amount of data. Since forward evaluations of the surrogate model are cheap, parameter exploration is made inexpensive, even when considering a large number of parameters.

Hassanaly, Malik↗

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗

Recovery Efficiency, False Negative Rate, and Limit of Detection Performance of a Validated Macrofoam-Swab Sampling Method with Low Surface Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates

The performance of a macrofoam-swab sampling method was evaluated using Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura (BG) spores applied at nine low target amounts (2-500 spores) to positive-control plates and test coupons (2 in. × 2 in.) of four surface materials (glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic). Test results from cultured samples were used to evaluate the effects of surrogate, surface concentration, and surface material on recovery efficiency (RE), false negative rate (FNR), and limit of detection. For RE, surrogate and surface material had statistically significant effects, but concentration did not. Mean REs were the lowest for vinyl tile (50.8% with BAS, 40.2% with BG) and the highest for glass (92.8% with BAS, 71.4% with BG). FNR values ranged from 0 to 0.833 for BAS and 0 to 0.806 for BG, with values increasing as concentration decreased in the range tested (0.078 to 19.375 CFU/cm 2 , where CFU denotes ‘colony forming units’). Surface material also had a statistically significant effect. A FNR-concentration curve was fit for each combination of surrogate and surface material. For both surrogates, the FNR curves tended to be the lowest for glass and highest for vinyl title. The FNR curves for BG tended to be higher than for BAS at lower concentrations, especially for glass. Results using a modified Rapid Viability-Polymerase Chain Reaction (mRV-PCR) analysis method were also obtained. The mRV-PCR results and comparisons to the culture results will be discussed in a subsequent report.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Summary of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogate Formulation and Testing

High Explosives Science and Technology (M-7) completed all required formulation and testing of Remediated Nitrate Salt (RNS) surrogates on April 27, 2016 as specified in PLAN-TA9-2443 Rev B, "Remediated Nitrate Salt (RNS) Surrogate Formulation and Testing Standard Procedure", released February 16, 2016. This report summarizes the results of the work and also includes additional documentation required in that test plan. All formulation and testing was carried out according to PLAN-TA9-2443 Rev B. The work was carried out in three rounds, with the full matrix of samples formulated and tested in each round. Results from the first round of formulation and testing were documented in memorandum M7-J6-6042, " Results from First Round of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogate Formulation and Testing." Results from the second round of formulation and testing were documented in M7-16-6053 , "Results from the Second Round of Remediated Nitrate Salt Surrogate Formulation and Testing." Initial results from the third round were documented in M7-16-6057, "Initial Results from the Third Round of Remediated Nitrate Salt Formulation and Testing."

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Aerosol Physics Considerations for Using Cerium Oxide CeO 2 as a Surrogate for Plutonium Oxide PuO 2 in Airborne Release Fraction Measurements for Storage Container Investigations

Cerium oxide (CeO2) dust is recommended as a surrogate for plutonium oxide (PuO2) in airborne release fraction experiments. The total range of applicable particle sizes for PuO2 extends from 0.0032 μm (the diameter of a single PuO2 molecule) to 10 μm (the defined upper boundary for respirable particles). For particulates with a physical particle diameter of 1.0 μm, the corresponding aerodynamic diameters for CeO2 and PuO2 are 2.7 μm and 3.4 μm, respectively. Cascade impactor air samplers are capable of measuring the size distributions of CeO2 or PuO2 particulates. In this document, the aerodynamic diameters for CeO2 and PuO2 were calculated for seven different physical diameters (0.0032, 0.02, 0.11, 0.27, 1.0, 3.2, and 10 μm). For cascade impactor measurements, CeO2 and PuO2 particulates with the same physical diameter would be collected onto the same or adjacent collection substrates. The difference between the aerodynamic diameter of CeO2 and PuO2 particles (that have the same physical diameter) is 39% of the resolution of a twelve-stage MSP Inc. 125 cascade impactor, and 34% for an eight-stage Andersen impactor. An approach is given to calculate the committed effective dose (CED) coefficient for PuO2 aerosol particles, compared to a corresponding aerodynamic diameter of CeO2 particles. With this approach, use of CeO2 as a surrogate for PuO2 material would follow a direct conversion based on a molar equivalent. In addition to the analytical information developed for this document, several US national labs have published articles about the use of CeO2 as a PuO2 surrogate. Different physical and chemical aspects were considered by these investigators, including thermal properties, ceramic formulations, cold pressing, sintering, molecular reactions, and mass loss in high temperature gas flows. All of those US national lab studies recommended the use of CeO2 as a surrogate material for PuO2.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Recovery Efficiency, False Negative Rate, and Limit of Detection Performance of a Validated Macrofoam-Swab Sampling Method with Low Surface Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates

The performance of a macrofoam-swab sampling method was evaluated using Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura (BG) spores applied at nine low target amounts (2-500 spores) to positive-control plates and test coupons (2 in × 2 in) of four surface materials (glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic). Test results from cultured samples were used to evaluate the effects of surrogate, surface concentration, and surface material on recovery efficiency (RE), false negative rate (FNR), and limit of detection. For RE, surrogate and surface material had statistically significant effects, but concentration did not. Mean REs were the lowest for vinyl tile (50.8% with BAS, 40.2% with BG) and the highest for glass (92.8% with BAS, 71.4% with BG). FNR values ranged from 0 to 0.833 for BAS and 0 to 0.806 for BG, with values increasing as concentration decreased in the range tested (0.078 to 19.375 CFU/cm2, where CFU denotes ‘colony forming units’). Surface material also had a statistically significant effect. A FNR-concentration curve was fit for each combination of surrogate and surface material. For both surrogates, the FNR curves tended to be the lowest for glass and highest for vinyl title. The FNR curves for BG tended to be higher than for BAS at lower concentrations, especially for glass. Results using a modified Rapid Viability-Polymerase Chain Reaction (mRV-PCR) analysis method were also obtained. The mRV-PCR results and comparisons to the culture results are discussed in a separate report.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Surrogate Model of Flexible Research Platform EnergyPlus Models to Enable Sensitivity Analysis

This letter report describes the surrogate models developed from the EnergyPlus model of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform. Two data-driven black-box models were developed, and the outputs of the surrogate models were compared with the EnergyPlus model. The two models developed are a multilayer perceptron deep learning model, and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model. The three factors for selecting the black-box models are scalability, computation time, and accuracy. A total of 107 input variables were the dominant variables in determining the outputs of building energy consumptions and thermal comfort. A total of 54 output variables were identified as the prediction targets, including the system- and zone-level outputs. The large set of the simulation cases were generated by integrating sensor errors into an emulator based on EnergyPlus and Python EMS, which includes advanced control sequences from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation. The surrogate models were developed based on a set of large-scale simulation runs (i.e., 4,000 runs) on a cloud platform. The comparison analysis shows that the two black-box models had good accuracy for predicting new outputs for sensitivity analysis using the root mean square error metric. As a next step, the developed surrogate models will be used to perform sensitivity analysis for different sensor impacts (e.g., sensor types, sensor locations).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Spatio-Temporal Surrogates for Interaction of a Jet with High Explosives: Part I - Analysis with a Small Sample Size

Computer simulations, especially of complex phenomena, can be expensive, requiring high-performance computing resources. Often, to understand a phenomenon, multiple simulations are run, each with a different set of simulation input parameters. These data are then used to create an interpolant, or surrogate, relating the simulation outputs to the corresponding inputs. When the inputs and outputs are scalars, a simple machine learning model can suffice. However, when the simulation outputs are vector valued, available at locations in two or three spatial dimensions, often with a temporal component, creating a surrogate is more challenging. In this report, we use a two-dimensional problem of a jet interacting with high explosives to understand how we can build high-quality surrogates. The characteristics of our data set are unique - the vector-valued outputs from each simulation are available at over two million spatial locations; each simulation is run for a relatively small number of time steps; the size of the computational domain varies with each simulation; and resource constraints limit the number of simulations we can run. We show how we analyze these extremely large data-sets, set the parameters for the algorithms used in the analysis, and use simple ways to improve the accuracy of the spatio-temporal surrogates without substantially increasing the number of simulations required.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient Learning of Accurate Surrogates for Simulations of Complex Systems

Machine learning methods are increasingly deployed to construct surrogate models for complex physical systems at a reduced computational cost. However, the predictive capability of these surrogates degrades in the presence of noisy, sparse, or dynamic data. We introduce an online learning method empowered by optimizer-driven sampling that has two advantages over current approaches: it ensures that all local extrema (including endpoints) of the model response surface are included in the training data and it employs a continuous validation and update process in which surrogates undergo retraining when their performance falls below a validity threshold. We find, using benchmark functions, that optimizer-directed sampling generally outperforms traditional sampling methods in terms of accuracy around local extrema even when the scoring metric is biased towards assessing overall accuracy. Finally, the application to dense nuclear matter demonstrates that highly accurate surrogates for a nuclear equation of state model can be reliably auto-generated from expensive calculations using few model evaluations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

wa-hls4ml and lui-gnn: A benchmark and GNN-based surrogate model for hls4ml resource and latency estimation

As machine learning (ML) increasingly serves as a tool for addressing real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced tooling has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as model synthesis, are now becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To reduce these emerging constraints, multiple efforts are being launched toward designing an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of synthesized accelerator architectures. This model would reduce the design iteration time, especially when designing within a set of given hardware constraints. This approach shows considerable potential, but as it stands, the effort is early and would benefit from coordination and standardization to assist future work as it emerges. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of more than 100,000 fully connected neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. In addition to the resource utilization and latency data provided, the dataset includes generated artifacts and log files for many of the synthesized neural networks, in order to support future research in ML-based code generation. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, as well as the average performance across a subset of the dataset. We measure the performance of a given predictor model through multiple metrics, including $R^2$ score and SMAPE on regression tasks, as well as inference time to further characterize the estimator under test. Additionally, we introduce the latency/utilization inference graph neural network (lui-gnn), a surrogate model that uses a graph neural network to represent input architectures in the form of a directed graph. This graph representation allows for a diverse set of model architectures to all be effectively handled by a surrogate model. We present the architecture and performance of the model, as evaluated by the new proposed benchmark, including SMAPE, $R^2$ score, and inference times, and find that lui-gnn generally predicts latency and utilization for the 75\% quantile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset, indicating that this approach of estimating resource and latency via a surrogate models has promise and warrants further research.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Surrogate Modelling of 3rd Integer Resonant Extraction at Fermilab Delivery Ring

We present an ongoing work in which a surrogate model is being developed to reproduce the response dynamics of the third-integer resonant extraction process in the Delivery Ring (DR) at Fermilab. This effort is in pursuit of smoothly extracting circulating beam to the Mu2e Experiment s production target, wherein the goal is to extract a uniform slice of the circulating $1e12$ protons in the DR over 25,000 turns (43~ms). The DR contains 3 harmonic sextupoles which excite a third-integer resonance as well as three fast, tune-ramping quadrupole magnets which drive the horizontal tune towards the $29/3$ resonance. In our initial work the surrogate model trains on a semi-analytical simulation provided in the same format as live data. Using Reinforcement Learning (and other potential ML methods), the trained surrogate acts as the environment in which a simple ML control agent could learn to dynamically adjust the quadrupole ramp at 430 break points within the 43 microsecond spill window. The control agent will be hosted on a dedicated Arria 10 FPGA, introducing its own requirements on control agent architecture. In this work we report the accuracy and fidelity of surrogate models in comparison to the response dynamics of the physics simulator.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157944↗

Quantum surrogate models for uncertainty quantification

Surrogate models are a critical ingredient to computation-based design and validation of many DOE mission-relevant physical systems. When first-principles computation of properties of a physical systems becomes pro hibitive, surrogate models are the only path towards achieving tasks such as uncertainty quantification (UQ), exploration of design space, and validation of design choices. In this project we have developed and demonstrated a new surro gate modeling paradigm for complex models that is data-driven, non-intrusive, and has the potential to be versatile and equipped with performance guaran tees. This combination of features is absent in existing surrogate modeling tools. The framework we have developed in this project exploits a quantum-classical correspondence to establish a quantum system that mimics the dynamics of the classical Hamiltonian system from which data in the form of temporal snapshots is provided. Since quantum dynamics propagates distributions over observables, the framework is naturally suited to propagation of epistemic uncertainties in the form of distributions over initial state and parametric uncertainties. In this project, we take the first step in establishing this novel framework by deriving a quantization and de-quantization procedure, demonstrating the accuracy of the quantum surrogate models these define using two model systems, and defining the next steps in maturing the framework towards a tool applicable to Sandia mission-relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Active Subspaces for Wind Plant Surrogate Modeling

Understanding the uncertainty in wind plant performance is crucial to their cost-effective design and operation. However, conventional approaches to uncertainty quantification (UQ), such as Monte Carlo techniques or surrogate modeling, are often computationally intractable for utility-scale wind plants because of poor congergence rates or the curse of dimensionality. In this paper we demonstrate that wind plant power uncertainty can be well represented with a low-dimensional active subspace, thereby achieving a significant reduction in the dimension of the surrogate modeling problem. We apply the active sub-spaces technique to UQ of plant power output with respect to uncertainty in turbine axial induction factors, and find a single active subspace direction dominates the sensitivity in power output. When this single active subspace direction is used to construct a quadratic surrogate model, the number of model unknowns can be reduced by up to 3 orders of magnitude without compromising performance on unseen test data. We conclude that the dimension reduction achieved with active subspaces makes surrogate-based UQ approaches tractable for utility-scale wind plants.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗

Surrogates for numerical simulations; optimization of eddy-promoter heat exchangers

Although the advent of fast and inexpensive parallel computers has rendered numerous previously intractable calculations feasible, many numerical simulations remain too resource-intensive to be directly inserted in engineering optimization efforts. An attractive alternative to direct insertion considers models for computational systems: the expensive simulation is evoked only to construct and validate a simplified, input-output model; this simplified input-output model then serves as a simulation surrogate in subsequent engineering optimization studies. A simple 'Bayesian-validated' statistical framework for the construction, validation, and purposive application of static computer simulation surrogates is presented. As an example, dissipation-transport optimization of laminar-flow eddy-promoter heat exchangers are considered: parallel spectral element Navier-Stokes calculations serve to construct and validate surrogates for the flowrate and Nusselt number; these surrogates then represent the originating Navier-Stokes equations in the ensuing design process.

Patera, Anthony T.↗

Greedy Sampling and Incremental Surrogate Model-Based Tailoring of Aeroservoelastic Model Database for Flexible Aircraft

This paper presents a data analysis and modeling framework to tailor and develop linear parameter-varying (LPV) aeroservoelastic (ASE) model database for flexible aircrafts in broad 2D flight parameter space. The Kriging surrogate model is constructed using ASE models at a fraction of grid points within the original model database, and then the ASE model at any flight condition can be obtained simply through surrogate model interpolation. The greedy sampling algorithm is developed to select the next sample point that carries the worst relative error between the surrogate model prediction and the benchmark model in the frequency domain among all input-output channels. The process is iterated to incrementally improve surrogate model accuracy till a pre-determined tolerance or iteration budget is met. The methodology is applied to the ASE model database of a flexible aircraft currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that the proposed method can reduce the number of models in the original database by 67%. Even so the ASE models obtained through Kriging interpolation match the model in the original database constructed directly from the physics-based tool with the worst relative error far below 1%. The interpolated ASE model exhibits continuously-varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions. More importantly, the selected grid points are distributed non-uniformly in the parameter space, a) capturing the distinctly different dynamic behavior and its dependence on flight parameters, and b) reiterating the need and utility for adaptive space sampling techniques for ASE model database compaction. The present framework is directly extendible to high-dimensional flight parameter space, and can be used to guide the ASE model development, model order reduction, robust control synthesis and novel vehicle design of flexible aircraft.

numerical analysi↗

Surrogate Modeling and Optimization of a Combustor with an Interdigitated Flushwall Injector

Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments (DACE) methods are applied and used to perform surrogate modeling and optimization of a simplified combustor flowpath with an interdigitated flushwall injector. The objectives of the optimization are the thrust potential and combustion efficiency, which are evaluated across a range of flight Mach numbers, duct heights, spanwise spacings, and injection angles. The focus of this work is to highlight the application of a sequential learning approach, in order to learn about the responses of the objective functions over the design space and to identify local regions of interest for further analysis. This approach is contrasted to a previous effort where only a single sampling set was used to fit surrogate models and perform optimization. The optimal solutions resulting from the previous and present approaches are different, due to surrogate model-guided local refinement of the design space allowed by the sequential learning method. The values of the global error estimates between the previous and present approaches are comparable, but the sequential method proved more computationally cost-effective. Further refinement in the optimal regions might be needed to improve predictive capability of surrogate models and to obtain the optimal solutions sets.

Rajiv R Shenoy↗

Combustion characteristics and detailed simulations of surrogates for a Tier II gasoline certification fuel

An experimental and numerical study of combustion of a gasoline certification fuel (‘indolene’), and four (S4) and five (S5) component surrogates for it, is reported for the configurations of an isolated droplet burning with near spherical symmetry in the standard atmosphere, and a single cylinder engine designed for advanced compression ignition of pre-vaporized fuel. The intent was to compare performance of the surrogate for these different combustion configurations and to assess the broader applicability of the kinetic mechanism and property database for the simulations. A kinetic mechanism comprised of 297 species and 16797 reactions was used in the simulations that included soot chemistry and accounted for unsteady transport, liquid diffusion inside the droplet, radiative heat transfer, and variable properties. The droplet data showed a clear preference for the S5 surrogate in terms of burning rate. The simulations showed generally very good agreement with measured droplet, flame, and soot shell diameters. Measurements of combustion timing, in-cylinder pressure, and mass-averaged gas temperature were also well predicted with a slight preference for the S5 surrogate. Preferential vaporization was not evidenced from the evolution of droplet diameter but was clearly revealed in simulations of the evolution of mixture fractions inside the droplets. The influence of initial droplet diameter (Do) on droplet burning was strong, with S5 burning rates decreasing with increasing Do due to increasing radiation losses from the flame. Flame extinction was predicted for Do =3.0 mm as a radiative loss mechanism but not predicted for smaller Do for the conditions of the simulations.

Guo, Songtao↗