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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of Wind Turbine Array Downstream Effects to the Parameterization Used in WRF

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has been extensively used for wind energy applications, and current releases include a scheme that can be applied to examine the effects of wind turbine arrays on the atmospheric flow and electricity generation from wind turbines. Herein we present a high-resolution simulation using two different wind farm parameterizations: 1) the “Fitch” parameterization that is included in WRF releases and 2) the recently developed Explicit Wake Parameterization (EWP) scheme. We compare the schemes using a single yearlong simulation for a domain centered on the highest density of current turbine deployments in the contiguous United States (Iowa). Pairwise analyses are applied to diagnose the downstream wake effects and impact of wind turbine arrays on near-surface climate conditions. On average, use of the EWP scheme results in small-magnitude wake effects within wind farm arrays and faster recovery of full WT array wakes. This in turn leads to smaller impacts on near-surface climate variables and reduced array–array interactions, which at a systemwide scale lead to summertime capacity factors (i.e., the electrical power produced relative to nameplate installed capacity) that are 2%–3% higher than those from the more commonly applied Fitch parameterization. It is currently not possible to make recommendations with regard to which wind farm parameterization exhibits higher fidelity or to draw inferences with regard to whether the relative performance may vary with prevailing climate conditions and/or wind turbine deployment configuration. However, the sensitivities documented herein to the wind farm parameterization are of sufficient magnitude to potentially influence wind turbine array siting decisions. Thus, our research findings imply high value in undertaking combined long-term high-fidelity observational studies in support of model validation and verification.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-Temperature Nucleation of GaP on V-Grooved Si

The use of nanopatterned {111}-faceted v-grooves has recently shown promise for growing high-quality III–V material on Si. Here, we study the effect of reactor conditions and surface pretreatments on the nucleation of GaP on v-grooved Si in a high-temperature regime, which offers the promise of a defect-free GaP/Si interface favorable for Si passivation and dislocation glide in the GaP. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy was used to understand the Si surface chemistry prior to nucleation, and transmission electron microscopy was used to probe material quality of the nuclei. Temperature and V/III ratio were found to control the facet selectivity of nucleation. We demonstrate a condition of high temperature and high V–III ratio that leads to uniform nucleation at the bottom of the trenches, with initial material free of nucleation-related interfacial defects. This optimized condition was then shown to coalesce into a thin film after additional growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing carbon dioxide capture under humid conditions by optimizing the pore surface structure

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) exhibit significant potential for mitigating carbon emissions due to their high porosity and tunability. Despite numerous reports on CO 2 capture by MOF sorbents, a common challenge is their poor selectivity for CO 2 over water. Moreover, in-depth studies are much needed to elucidate the relationships among the pore surface structure, hydrophobicity, and CO 2 uptake capacity/selectivity. In this work, we investigate the factors influencing CO 2 adsorption capacity and selectivity under humidity in a series of isoreticular pillar-layer structures, Ni 2 (L) 2 (dabco) (L = bdc, ndc, adc). Our study shows that increasing ligand conjugation not only results in increased hydrophobicity, decreased pore size and BET surface area, but also leads to the change of primary binding sites of water molecules and higher binding energy of CO 2 , all of which contribute to largely increased CO 2 uptake capacity under humid conditions. Additionally, increasing ligand conjugation and consequently hydrophobicity slow down and reduce competitive water adsorption drastically. Notably, the MOF made of ligand with the highest conjugation, Ni 2 (adc) 2 (dabco), exhibits significantly enhanced CO 2 adsorption in N 2 /CO 2 binary mixtures under relatively high humidity (50% RH), with an increase of ~31% and ~36% for the composition of 15/85 and 50/50, respectively, compared to dry conditions. An experimental FTIR study and DFT theoretical calculations confirm that H 2 O occupies different primary binding site in Ni 2 (bdc) 2 (dabco) and Ni 2 (adc) 2 (dabco), and under humid conditions a higher binding energy of CO 2 is achieved with preferential H 2 O/CO 2 co-adsorption in Ni 2 (adc) 2 (dabco), potentially creating additional adsorption sites for CO 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of convection heat transfer on multiscale rough superhydrophobic and liquid infused surfaces

Multiscale rough superhydrophobic or slippery liquid infused porous surfaces have gained much interest in recent years for their improved transport phenomena properties. While there have been several studies on drag reduction and condensation on non-wetting surfaces, convection heat transfer that is important in many thermal and thermochemical applications has not been addressed systematically. Here, this article utilizes a fractal description of rough surface topographies to develop analytical models for the Nusselt number and the thermal hydraulic factor for fluid flow and heat transfer inside a cylinder with non-wetting surfaces. For air-infused superhydrophobic surfaces, the model considers the dynamic stability of the air/fluid interface in the asperities. Using the analytical formulations and the stability criteria, systematic studies are presented on the effects of the fractal surface parameters, cylinder radius and Reynolds number on the convective heat transfer characteristics, from which surface texture design maps are developed for maximizing the convection heat transfer. It is shown that multiscale non-wetting surfaces are most effective in the range of lower Reynolds number and small cylinder radius for achieving the best convective heat transfer and thermal hydraulic performance. Applying the models to actual non-wetting surface topographies fabricated using electrodeposition and chemical etching, it is shown that contrary to prevailing notion, superhydrophobicity, characterized by the highest contact angles, does not always lead to the maximum convective heat transfer performance, and that under certain fluid flow conditions, hydrophobic surfaces may offer a greater thermal performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

The gravity extension for MCNP 6.2

Standard MCNP particle tracking takes place along straight-line trajectories from interaction point to interaction point. There is a feature within MCNP that is planned for deprecation that provides surface boundary conditions for approximating gravity for planetary cases, but this feature is not applicable to a cold neutron beam. A new extension has been developed to track particles along parabolic trajectories with a constant acceleration. MCNP contains 1st and 2nd-order surfaces as well as a special case of 4th-order surfaces for simple tori, and the intersection of parabolic trajectories with these surfaces becomes 2nd, 4th, and 8th-order equations in time, respectively. Solving these equations utilizes a fast algorithm for finding the roots of polynomials. Finally, the theory, MCNP input card, and examples of using this new feature will be discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of the Chemical States of Copper on Methanol Decomposition and Oxidation

Here, the decomposition and oxidation reactions of CH 3 OH over metallic Cu(100) and Cu 2 O-covered Cu(100) surfaces are studied using a combination of in-situ ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Auger electron spectroscopy, and density functional theory calculations. We identify the sequential chemical transformation pathways from bond cleavage to the formation of intermediates and final products under operational conditions. Accumulative surface adsorption of CH 3 O species on metallic Cu(100) impedes the decomposition of CH 3 OH. Co-dosing on metallic Cu(100) with low pressures of 1·10 -4 Torr CH 3 OH + 1·10 -4 Torr O 2 results in partial oxidation of CH 3 OH, where the chemisorbed O ads reduces surface sites available for CH 3 O adsorption, decreasing the surface activity for CH 3 OH decomposition. In contrast, the Cu 2 O overlayer formed under the elevated pressures of 0.33 Torr CH 3 OH + 0.66 Torr O 2 promotes the total oxidation of CH 3 OH into the final products of CO 2 and H 2 O, arising from the active reaction 2 between lattice O within Cu 2 O and intermediates of CH 3 O, CH 2 O, HCOO, and CO. Despite the more favorable O-H bond scission, C-O bond scission also occurs to result in surface accumulation of CH x on metallic Cu(100), blocking active sites for decomposition reactions of CH 3 OH and CH 3 O. By comparison, the CH x species on the Cu 2 O-covered Cu(100) undergo oxidation into CO 2 and H 2 O with lattice O in the Cu 2 O overlayer, thereby freeing active sites for the total oxidation of CH 3 OH. These results highlight the distinct roles of metallic Cu and Cu 2 O in the pathways of CH 3 OH decomposition and oxidation reactions, offering practical insights for the design of Cu-based catalysts with tailored reactivity and selectivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extended use of face masks during the COVID-19 pandemic - Thermal conditioning and spray-on surface disinfection

The current COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in globally constrained supplies for face masks and personal protective equipment (PPE). Production capacity is limited in many countries and the future course of the pandemic will likely continue with shortages for high quality masks and PPE in the foreseeable future. Therefore, expectations are that mask reuse, extended wear and similar approaches will enhance the availability of personal protective measures. Repeated thermal disinfection could be an important option and likely easier implemented in some situations, at least on the small scale, than UV illumination, irradiation or hydrogen peroxide vapor exposure. In this paper, an overview on thermal responses and ongoing filtration performance of multiple face mask types is provided. Most masks have adequate material properties to survive a few cycles (i.e. 30 min disinfection steps) of thermal exposure in the 75°C regime. Some are more easily affected, as seen by the fusing of plastic liner or warping, given that preferred conditioning temperatures are near the softening point for some of the plastics and fibers used in these masks. Hence adequate temperature control is equally important. As guidance, disinfectants sprayed via dilute solutions maintain a surface presence over extended time at 25 and 37°C. Some spray-on alcohol-based solutions containing disinfectants were gently applied to the top surface of masks. Neither moderate thermal aging (less than 24 h at 80 and 95°C) nor gentle application of surface disinfectant sprays resulted in measurable loss of mask filter performance. Subject to bio-medical concurrence (additional checks for virus kill efficiency) and the use of low risk non-toxic disinfectants, such strategies, either individually or combined, by offering additional anti-viral properties or short term refreshing, may complement reuse options of professional masks or the now ubiquitous custom-made face masks with their often unknown filtration effectiveness.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of underlying surface, rainstorm and antecedent wetness condition on flood responses in small and medium sized watersheds in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Floods are becoming more frequent and are hard to control due to the shortage of water conservancy projects in small and medium sized basins, especially in developing regions. Understanding the hydrologic responses and estimated flood characteristics to storm events can help to predict flood disasters and form better effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, using observations of several representative watersheds and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, we conducted data-driven analyses to examine the flood responding characteristics. We quantified the relative contributions of the influencing factors to the variation of each flood characteristic. Statistical analysis of the observations shows that the drainage area plays a key role in determining the distribution of lag time and peak discharge. Rainstorm variability has direct influence on floods, and typhoon-induced rainstorms with high total rainfall and rainfall intensity generate higher lag time, flood peak, unit discharge and runoff depth, but lower runoff coefficient. The ANN and PCR models accurately predicted the variations of flood features using the driving factors including physical geographical characteristics, rainstorm features, and antecedent condition. Physical geographic characteristics are key influential factors of lag time, flood peak and runoff coefficient, while the rainstorm features control the magnitude of unit discharge and runoff depth. These results indicate that floods are mainly affected by rainstorm features and physical geographic characteristics in the Yangtze River delta, and it might become more damaging with the increasing rainfall extremes and sprawling impervious surfaces in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Linking impact melt redox with crustal weathering regime

Abstract Impact melting and outgassing of impact melts were important processes shaping the crust and atmosphere of early Earth and Mars. The redox state of impact melts influences the gases they release, but the controls on impact melt redox are not well understood. Here, we present Fe micro–X-ray absorption near edge structure (μ-XANES) measurements of a suite of impact melt glasses from Lonar crater, India. As an impact into continental flood basalts, Lonar crater is an ideal analog for impacts into basaltic crust on early Earth and Mars. The Fe-μ-XANES technique permits robust characterization of the Fe3+/ΣFe ratio and therefore redox conditions in Lonar glasses. We found a range in Fe3+/ΣFe of 0.21–0.49 among Lonar glasses, including substantial intraclast variations. We conclude that a primary factor driving these variations was pre-impact oxidative weathering of target rocks. The coupling between crustal weathering regime and speciation of gases released from impact melts implies that impact melt outgassing could act as a feedback mechanism to reinforce prevailing surface redox conditions.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of crystallographic orientation on calcite dissolution under alkaline conditions

Here, this study investigates the dissolution of calcite’s (104) and (100) surfaces under alkaline conditions (pH 8.8–13.1) using vertical scanning interferometry under flow-through conditions. The dissolution rate of (100) surfaces decreases with increasing pH. For example, the dissolution rate at pH 8.8 is more than 20 times higher than that at pH 13.1. In contrast, the dissolution rate of (104) surfaces is far less sensitive to pH. We explain these observations as being on account of the preferential adsorption of [OH – ] on (100) surfaces, inhibiting their dissolution. Particularly, this is because Ca-surface sites on (100) surfaces are less coordinated and have a stronger tendency for [OH – ] adsorption. As a result, (100) surfaces dissolve nearly twice as fast as (104) surfaces at pH 8.8, whereas (104) surfaces dissolved ~4.5 times faster than (100) surfaces at pH 13.1; indicating an inversion in dissolution behavior. The dissolution rate of (104) surfaces at pH 13.1 is 60 % of the rate at pH 10–12 because of the formation of slow dissolving microfacets of other orientations. The rhombohedral dissolution etch-pits formed on (104) surfaces, at lower pH’s, disappeared upon exposure to solutions with pH > 12 and were replaced by protrusions. The addition of up to 4m (molality) NaCl enhances the dissolution of (104) surfaces at pH 8.8–13.1 and (100) surfaces at pH 8.8–11.0, and inhibited the dissolution of (100) surfaces at pH = 12.0–13.1. In addition, the competing adsorption between OH – and CO 3 2– species mitigates the inhibition effects of CO 3 2– on both surfaces at pH 13.1 compared to pH 11, and the dissolution of (100) surfaces is far less affected by CO 3 2– than (104) surfaces. These results provide new insights into the rates and mechanisms of how crystallographic orientations affect calcite’s dissolution at alkaline pH conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Growth and structural studies of In/Au(111) alloys and InO x /Au(111) inverse oxide/metal model catalysts

Indium oxide has received attention as an exciting candidate for catalyzing the CO 2 hydrogenation to methanol due to its high selectivity (>80%). Compared to the extent of research on the activity of indium oxide-based powder catalysts, very little is known about the phenomena associated with the formation of surface alloys involving indium or the growth mechanism for indium oxide nanoparticles. In this report, scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) were employed to elucidate the growth mode, structure, and chemical state of In/Au(111) alloys and InO x /Au(111) inverse model catalysts. Here, our study reveals distinct morphological differences between In/Au(111) and InO x /Au(111), and the InO x structure also depends strongly on the preparation conditions. In/Au surface alloy systems with extremely low coverage (0.02 ML) form islands preferentially on the elbow sites of reconstructed Au(111) herringbone, regardless of hcp and fcc stacking. At higher coverage (0.1 ML), the In islands expand over the herringbone in the <110> direction and create two dimensional domain structures over the entire surfaces. Moreover, this 2D domain structure is disturbed by temperature with high dispersion of indium atoms observed during the annealing process. Oxidation of the In/Au(111) surface alloys with O 2 at 550 K produces InO x /Au(111) systems which contain various sizes of InO x aggregates (from 0.7 to 10 nm). On the other hand, InO x /Au(111) surfaces prepared by vapor deposition of In at 550 K in an O 2 background exhibit highly dispersed and uniformly small InO x particles (~1 nm). Both InO x systems were confirmed to be partially oxidized by XPS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Room Temperature, Dip Coating Organic Passivation for c-Si Surfaces

Surface passivation of crystalline Si (c-Si) to reduce recombination rate is crucial to obtain high-efficiency c-Si solar cells. A fast passivation technique that can be performed at room temperature is needed when studying the degradation behaviors using various characterization methods to not destroy the degraded states. In this contribution, we explore Nafion via dip coating on n-type Cz wafers. We show that both the Nafion concentration and the conditions of surface and edge affect the passivation quality, and we achieve excellent passivation quality of iVoc of 716 mV, with a saturation current density (J0) of 7 fA/cm2. Additionally, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) shows Nafion can be used under cryogenic temperature and reveals the reduction of Si dangling bond after Nafion treatment.

dielectric solar cell↗
DOE OSTI2023

The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting characteristics of open- and closed-cellular stratocumulus cloud in the eastern North Atlantic

Abstract. Extensive regions of marine boundary layer cloud impact the radiative balance through their significant shortwave albedo while having little impact on outgoing longwave radiation. Despite this importance, these cloud systems remain poorly represented in large-scale models due to difficulty in representing the processes that drive their life cycle and coverage. In particular, the mesoscale organization and cellular structure of marine boundary clouds have important implications for the subsequent cloud feedbacks. In this study, we use long-term (2013–2018) observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility's Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site on Graciosa Island, Azores, Portugal, to identify cloud cases with open- or closed-cellular organization. More than 500 h of each organization type are identified. The ARM observations are combined with reanalysis and satellite products to quantify the cloud, precipitation, aerosol, thermodynamic, and large-scale synoptic characteristics associated with these cloud types. Our analysis shows that both cloud organization populations occur during similar sea surface temperature conditions, but the open-cell cases are distinguished by stronger cold-air advection and large-scale subsidence compared to the closed-cell cases, consistent with their formation during cold-air outbreaks. We also find that the open-cell cases were associated with deeper boundary layers, stronger low-level winds, and higher rain rates compared to their closed-cell counterparts. Finally, raindrops with diameters larger than 1 mm were routinely recorded at the surface during both populations, with a higher number of large drops during the open-cellular cases. The similarities and differences noted herein provide important insights into the environmental and cloud characteristics during varying marine boundary layer cloud mesoscale organization and will be useful for the evaluation of model simulations for ENA marine clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress localization investigation of additively manufactured GRCop-42 thin-wall structure

A full-field crystal plasticity (CP) framework is presented for the GRCop-42 alloy to study microscopic mechanical behavior and local stress heterogeneities. The microstructures of additively manufactured (AM) materials are often unique relative to conventionally processed materials, and the local thermal histories drive these differences during the build process. These thermal histories depend on the process parameters (laser power, scan speed, and scan strategy) and the part geometry. Prior research has shown that the mechanical properties of thin-walled structures can vary significantly with wall thickness due to changes in the thermal boundary conditions during manufacturing. It is, therefore, desirable to perform CP simulations based on the phenomenological constitutive model to predict the local mechanical responses induced by microstructural heterogeneities. This work generates representative microstructures based on experimentally collected grain information (i.e., texture) for grain scale stress analysis, and the material constitutive parameters are calibrated using the experimental mechanical testing data. Here, we specifically investigated the effect of crystallographic texture and grain morphologies on the size-dependent mechanical properties of AM GRCop-42. The selection of appropriate material properties for implementing an effective free surface boundary condition and the influence of adjacent buffer layers are also discussed. Analysis of local field results reveals a strong correlation between stress localization and the initial grain orientation. However, no significant relationship between the misorientation of the individual adjacent grains and the average misorientation is observed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Idealized simulations of wind farm interactions with intermittent turbulence in stable boundary layer conditions

Stable atmospheric boundary layer conditions typically correspond to weak turbulence levels, but intermittent periods of elevated turbulence can occur during otherwise quiescent conditions. The interaction between intermittent turbulence and wind turbines is not well understood because of sparse observations, as well as the difficulty in realistically resolving small-scale turbulence during strongly stable conditions with numerical simulations. In this study, an explicit filtering and reconstruction approach for large-eddy simulation (LES) is used to simulate weakly and strongly stable conditions, with surface cooling rates of −0.2 and −2.0 K h −1 , respectively. This approach can sustain resolved background turbulence at relatively coarse grid spacing and stronger stratification compared to conventional closures, permitting more realistic intermittent stable boundary layer (SBL) turbulence. The idealized LES capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model is employed with turbine rotors parameterized using generalized actuator disks to examine (1) how the presence of turbine wakes affects SBL evolution and (2) the effect of intermittent turbulence on power production and wake recovery. Wakes increase mixing and deepen the SBL, with a stronger effect under strongly stable conditions, primarily because the SBL is shallower and closer to the top of the wind turbine rotor layer. Intermittent turbulence does not have a significant impact on mean power generation and wake recovery because the relevant intermittent turbulent structures in this study only affect the bottom half of the rotor disk. Power production is, however, more variable during periods of elevated turbulence, demonstrating the impact of SBL intermittency. This study uses an idealized configuration, focusing on LES model performance and physical understanding, with the goal of informing future simulations of the conditions observed during the American Wake Experiment.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved performance of a near-field thermophotovoltaic device by a back gapped reflector

Various spectral control techniques can be applied to improve the performance of a thermophotovoltaic (TPV) device. For example, a back surface reflector (BSR) is a common structure to improve the performance of TPV devices. A conventional metal BSR structure enhances the photogeneration rate by increasing the absorption probability of photons via back surface reflections, affording a second chance for absorption. However, the effects of surface passivation and external luminescence introduced by BSR structures have been previously ignored, which potentially decreases the performance of TPV devices. Recently, a back gapped reflector (BGR) structure was proposed to greatly improve the performance of far-field TPV devices by reducing imperfect reflections at the semiconductor-metal interface. In the present work, the performance improvement on a thin-film, near-field InAs TPV device with a BGR is investigated, comparing its performance to that with a conventional metal BSR. Surface passivation conditions are also investigated to further improve the performance of TPV devices with back reflectors. Further, the output power and efficiency are calculated using an iterative model combining fluctuational electrodynamics and the full drift diffusion model. For the well-passivated condition, when the BSR is replaced by the BGR, the calculated conversion efficiency of the near-field TPV was improved from 16.4% to 21% and the output power was increased by 10%. Finally, the absorption of the back reflectors and external luminescence loss are analyzed to explain the performance improvement.

external luminescence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗