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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Sparse Coding for N-Gram Feature Extraction and Training for File Fragment Classification

File fragment classification is an important step in the task of file carving in digital forensics. In file carving, files must be reconstructed based on their content as a result of their fragmented storage on disk or in memory. Existing methods for classification of file fragments typically use hand-engineered features such as byte histograms or entropy measures. In this paper, we propose an approach using sparse coding that enables automated feature extraction. Sparse coding, or sparse dictionary learning, is an unsupervised learning algorithm, and is capable of extracting features based simply on how well those features can be used to reconstruct the original data. With respect to file fragments, we learn sparse dictionaries for n-grams, continuous sequences of bytes, of different sizes. These dictionaries may then be used to estimate n-gram frequencies for a given file fragment, but for significantly larger n-gram sizes than are typically found in existing methods which suffer from combinatorial explosion. To demonstrate the capability of our sparse coding approach, we used the resulting features to train standard classifiers such as support vector machines (SVMs) over multiple file types. Experimentally, we achieved significantly better classification results with respect to existing methods, especially when the features were used in supplement to existing hand-engineered features.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning–Based Condition Monitoring of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Plant

With the need to maintain long-term reliable energy using nuclear power plants, there is an underlying demand to ensure that the maintenance of plant components and systems is also done in an efficient and cost-effective manner. One way to achieve this is by moving from time-based maintenance to condition-based maintenance. The research presented in this paper focuses on applying statistical and machine-learning-based methods to capture anomalies within data for fault detection to further develop into condition monitoring. This paper focuses on system data for a circulating water system (CWS) of a pressurized heavy-water reactor for detecting anomalies. The different methodologies used for detecting and capturing anomalies in the CWS data are matrix profile, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), and support vector machines (SVMs). Matrix profile and DBSCAN are used to distinguish between normal data and anomalous data. This paper presents a hybrid method using DBSCAN and SVM when a portion of the data is used for DBSCAN to generate clusters. This portion of data is then used to train the SVM along with the clusters generated by DBSCAN as output. SVM is then tested on unseen data as a predictive tool, which can work in real time to categorize data points as either normal or anomalous. This paper presents results that show the high accuracies of DBSCAN and SVM in capturing anomalies within the data for a CWS for fault detection. Thus, the maintenance plan would be focused on component condition rather than a time-based schedule by switching to an automated system to identify and predict faults within a CWS.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Performance of Advanced Signal Processing and Pattern Recognition Algorithms Using Raw Data from Ultrasonic Guided Waves and Fiber Optics Transducers

The Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program was initiated to evaluate technologies that could be used to perform online monitoring of piping and other secondary system structural components in commercial nuclear power plants. These online monitoring systems have the potential to identify when a more detailed inspection is needed using real-time measurements, rather than at a pre-determined inspection interval. This transition to condition-based, risk-informed automated maintenance will contribute to a significant reduction of operations and maintenance costs that account for most nuclear power generation costs. This report describes the current state of research related to ultrasonic guided wave testing and its application to detecting defects in commercial nuclear power plants. The report analyzes the applicability of the guided wave technology to secondary piping systems, as well as studying the potential for expanding the range of guided wave technology to include bent piping and other piping components. The ultrasonic guided waves can inspect long stretches of straight piping; however, more complex geometries such as elbows, welds, and tees are causing spurious reflections and coherent noise, which significantly decreases the sensitivity of the technique. To deal with these limitations, high-definition fiber optic sensors are applied to complex piping geometries, and advanced machine learning algorithms are used to detect deviations from healthy states. This report also analyzes the performance of advanced signal processing and machine learning-based pattern recognition algorithms in detecting defects in secondary structures. It is demonstrated on guided wave data collected at nuclear power plants that the independent component analysis can separate different coherent noise components and segregate them from useful signals. It also demonstrates that advanced machine learning techniques, such as neural networks, support vector machines, and deep learning networks, can detect minor defects present in inspected structures. Recommendation about the applicability of advanced machine learning techniques to online piping monitoring are also given.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗

NASA NTRS2016

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗

DOE OSTI2018

AUTOMATIC LIMIT SURFACE SEARCH FOR PWR TRANSIENTS BY RELAP5-3D/RAVEN CODES

Deterministic safety analysis of nuclear power plants can be improved by applying modern algorithms and codes exploiting machine learning and parallel computing. In this paper we show the application of some of these advanced methodologies for the determination of limit surfaces. A limit surface is an n-dimensional surface describing the plant status, e.g. identifying, as function of selected plant parameters, the boundaries between failed and safe conditions for the core fuel. Using the RELAP5-3D system thermal-hydraulic code coupled to the RAVEN statistical-analysis code, we show how to apply machine-learning algorithms (near-neighbor, support-vector machine, etc.) for determining relevant limit surfaces for PWR station-blackout and loss of offsite power. As a first step, a set of training simulations is run to sample the nuclear power plant responses. Those calculations are used to train a Reduced-Order-Model (ROM), which RAVEN then uses for determining an approximated limit surface. Verification of the guessed limit surface is then automatically performed and calculation is terminated depending by the chosen convergence criteria. The combination of High Performance Computing (HPC) and ROMs allow a remarkable reduction of the time required for the surface determination. RAVEN performs also the automatic data collection of the output of the numerous runs, thus easing the workload of the safety analyst. Finally, using RAVEN “Ensamble Forward” sampling technique, we show how to inform the limit surface calculations with some of the code and input uncertainties.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Power Fault Diagnostics and Preventative Maintenance Optimization NPIC presentation

The nuclear industry is beginning to see reactors shut down—even after their operating licenses have been extended—because they are not economically competitive with other energy sources. These early closures happen primarily due to economic reasons, despite excellent safety records. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce costs in order to prevent these early closures. One of the contributors to these economic reasons is the large operations and maintenance costs. This paper showcases recent research on advanced fault diagnostics techniques and preventative maintenance optimization (PMO) for reducing NPP maintenance costs. Specifically, it focuses on the feedwater and condensate system (FWCS) for both pressurized- and boiling-water reactor (BWR) systems. The computerized maintenance management system (CMMS), which contains the plant’s digital record of all corrective maintenance (CM) and preventative maintenance (PM) work orders, provided the ground truth for locating potential faults and labeling the process data as either healthy or faulted. Various feature extraction techniques were used to further differentiate the faulted data from the healthy data. Through a cross-validation procedure, support vectors machines were used to label other test sets of process data as either healthy or faulted. With relatively few faults identified in the BWR system, the potential for PMO opens up, since an unnecessary amount of PM leads to inflated maintenance costs. The steps for PMO are summarized, from component health determinations to recommendations for action. An example of PMO assessment is presented for condensate pumps, condensate booster pumps, and the respective motors that drive them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Power Fault Diagnostics and Preventative Maintenance Optimization

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

SVM-Based Parameter Identification for Composite ZIP and Electronic Load Modeling

This paper proposes a parameter identification technique for composite ZIP and electronic loads by leveraging the support vector machine (SVM) approach. Since the active power and the reactive power of electronic loads are piecewise functions of the voltage magnitude, the operating modes of electronic loads are determined by the voltage magnitude. To improve the accuracy of parameter identification, two filters (Hampel and Savitzky–Golay) are employed to preprocess measurements to reduce noise. The data after noise reduction serve as training data for the regression model that is solved by the SVM approach. Numerical results show that the SVM approach with filters can identify the parameters of the composite ZIP and electronic load model with high accuracy

Electronic load↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Data-Driven Based HVdc Ancillary Control for Multiple Frequency Data Attacks

The high voltage direct current (HVdc) intertie has been applied to provide ancillary-services for ac grids, utilizing the real-time feedback from phasor measurement units (PMUs). However, PMU data communication is vulnerable to false data injection attacks (FDIA) due to protocol defects, thus the HVdc ancillary control and system stability will be threatened. To address this issue, this article proposes a novel HVdc control strategy based on a hybrid data-driven (HDD) methodology. In this work, the HDD methodology is first proposed to detect the types and duration time of multiple frequency attacks. Specifically, the Hilbert Huang transform (HHT) is used to decompose the frequency data, using variational mode decomposition instead of the traditional empirical mode decomposition, to extract data features. Second, a multikernel support vector machine is proposed to classify the attacked data based on the designed distinctive features from HHT. Meanwhile, the attacking duration time is decided using an unsupervised technique. Third, an HDD-based HVdc ancillary control strategy is established to eliminate the effect of FDIAs on the HVdc frequency response. Comprehensive experiments of HDD-based HVdc ancillary controls under different FDIAs suggest that the proposed HDD could fast and accurately classify the FDIAs, and the HDD-based HVdc ancillary control strategy could significantly suppress the impact of the FDIAs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging design of experiments to build chemometric models for the quantification of uranium (VI) and HNO3 by Raman spectroscopy

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) and support vector regression (SVR) models were optimized for the quantification of U(VI) (10–320 g L −1 ) and HNO 3 (0.6–6 M) by Raman spectroscopy with optimized calibration sets chosen by optimal design of experiments. The designed approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the calibration set for PLSR and SVR by selecting sample concentrations with a quadratic process model, despite complex confounding and covarying spectral features in the spectra. The top PLS2 model resulted in percent root mean square errors of prediction for U(VI), HNO 3 , and NO 3 − of 3.7%, 3.6%, and 2.9%, respectively. PLS1 models performed similarly despite modeling an analyte with a majority linear response (i.e., uranyl symmetric stretch) and another with more covarying vibrational modes (i.e., HNO 3 ). Partial least squares (PLS) model loadings and regression coefficients were evaluated to better understand the relationship between weaker Raman bands and covarying spectral features. Support vector machine models outperformed PLS1 models, resulting in percent root mean square error of prediction values for U(VI) and HNO 3 of 1.5% and 3.1%, respectively. The optimal nonlinear SVR model was trained using a similar number of samples (11) compared with the PLSR model, even though PLS is a linear modeling approach. The generic D-optimal design presented in this work provides a robust statistical framework for selecting training set samples in disparate two-factor systems. This approach reinforces Raman spectroscopy for the quantification of species relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle and provides a robust chemometric modeling approach to bolster online monitoring in challenging process environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

iPNHOT: a knowledge-based approach for identifying protein-nucleic acid interaction hot spots

The interaction between proteins and nucleic acids plays pivotal roles in various biological processes such as transcription, translation, and gene regulation. Hot spots are a small set of residues that contribute most to the binding affinity of a protein-nucleic acid interaction. Compared to the extensive studies of the hot spots on protein-protein interfaces, the hot spot residues within protein-nucleic acids interfaces remain less well-studied, in part because mutagenesis data for protein-nucleic acids interaction are not as abundant as that for protein-protein interactions. In this study, we built a new computational model, iPNHOT, to effectively predict hot spot residues on protein-nucleic acids interfaces. One training data set and an independent test set were collected from dbAMEPNI and some recent literature, respectively. To build our model, we generated 97 different sequential and structural features and used a two-step strategy to select the relevant features. The final model was built based only on 7 features using a support vector machine (SVM). The features include two unique features such as ΔSASsa 1/2 and esp3, which are newly proposed in this study. Based on the cross validation results, our model gave F1 score and AUROC as 0.725 and 0.807 on the subset collected from ProNIT, respectively, compared to 0.407 and 0.670 of mCSM-NA, a state-of-the art model to predict the thermodynamic effects of protein-nucleic acid interaction. The iPNHOT model was further tested on the independent test set, which showed that our model outperformed other methods. Here, by collecting data from a recently published database dbAMEPNI, we proposed a new model, iPNHOT, to predict hotspots on both protein-DNA and protein-RNA interfaces. The results show that our model outperforms the existing state-of-art models. Our model is available for users through a webserver: http://zhulab.ahu.edu.cn/iPNHOT/.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the role of segmentation on process-structure–property predictions made via machine learning

Here, the present study investigated the effect of porosity surface determination methods on performance of machine learning models used to predict the tensile properties of AlSi10Mg processed by laser powder bed fusion from micro-computed tomography data. Machine learning models applied in this work include support vector machines, neural networks, decision trees, and Bayesian classifiers. The effects of isosurface thresholding and local gradient approaches for porosity segmentation, as well as image filtering schemes, on model precision were evaluated for samples produced under differing levels of global energy density.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Defect detection in atomic-resolution images via unsupervised learning with translational invariance

Abstract Crystallographic defects can now be routinely imaged at atomic resolution with aberration-corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) at high speed, with the potential for vast volumes of data to be acquired in relatively short times or through autonomous experiments that can continue over very long periods. Automatic detection and classification of defects in the STEM images are needed in order to handle the data in an efficient way. However, like many other tasks related to object detection and identification in artificial intelligence, it is challenging to detect and identify defects from STEM images. Furthermore, it is difficult to deal with crystal structures that have many atoms and low symmetries. Previous methods used for defect detection and classification were based on supervised learning, which requires human-labeled data. In this work, we develop an approach for defect detection with unsupervised machine learning based on a one-class support vector machine (OCSVM). We introduce two schemes of image segmentation and data preprocessing, both of which involve taking the Patterson function of each segment as inputs. We demonstrate that this method can be applied to various defects, such as point and line defects in 2D materials and twin boundaries in 3D nanocrystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning for In-Situ Layer Quality Monitoring during Laser-Based Directed Energy Deposition (LB-DED) Additive Manufacturing Process

Defects are a leading issue for the rejection of parts manufactured through the Directed Energy Deposition (DED) Additive Manufacturing (AM) process. In an attempt to illuminate and advance in situ quality monitoring and control of workpieces, we present an innovative data-driven method that synchronously collects sensing data and AM process parameters with a low sampling rate during the DED process. The proposed data-driven technique determines the important influences that individual printing parameters and sensing features have on prediction at the inter-layer qualification to perform feature selection. Three Machine Learning (ML) algorithms including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) are used. During post-production, a threshold is applied to detect low-density occurrences such as porosity sizes and quantities from CT scans that render individual layers acceptable or unacceptable. This information is fed to the ML models for training. Training/testing are completed offline on samples deemed “high-quality” and “low-quality”, utilizing only features recorded from the build process. CNN results show that the classification of acceptable/unacceptable layers can reach between 90% accuracy while training/testing on a “high-quality” sample and dip to 65% accuracy when trained/tested on “low-quality”/“high-quality” (respectively), indicating over-fitting but showing CNN as a promising inter-layer classifier.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2021

Automated Data Accountability for Missions in Mars Rover Data

As the Mars Curiosity Rover transmits data to the JPL Ground Data System (GDS), it frequently observes data loss and corruption, requiring re-transmits from the rover and Ground Data System Analysts (GDSA) to monitor the downlink process. As new missions are launched, the GDSA team redistributes analysts to these new missions, causing shortages in previous missions. The GDSA team can significantly benefit from the automation and optimization of the downlink process of telemetry data. In fact, there is a need for a better understanding of why the data is corrupted, so that the GDSA team can best determine the root cause of the issues in the GDS. This paper presents machine learning and deep learning based approaches to automate and optimize the detection of data loss. We first created a pipeline to automatically accumulate data from the telemetry databases (MAROS, Telemetry Data Storage, and GDS Elastic Search Database) in the downlink process. With our newly created datasets, we perform feature selection to supplement the GDSA understanding of the downlink process and provide supplemental analysis on the importance of different features. We implement various machine learning and deep learning based models, including support vector machines, ensemble methods, and deep neural networks and evaluate their accuracies in identifying whether a downlink process is complete or incomplete. We utilize fast hyperparameter optimization methods that allow our models to quickly be re-trained, allowing them to quickly be tuned and optimized on daily incoming data in real time. This hyperparameter optimization also allows our methods to be quickly integrated into other JPL missions. Our results show that our best-performing machine learning and deep learning based models outperform the existing GDSA detection software by 6 accuracy points and can aid analysts by providing insights into the data accountability problem. Since these various machine learning and deep learning approaches vary significantly in interpretability, we provide a discussion on the tradeoffs between their performance and trustworthiness in helping detect issues in data transmission.

Divsalar, Dariush↗