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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uinta Basin CarbonSAFE II: Storage Complex Feasibility (Final Report)

The primary objective of this CarbonSAFE Phase II project was to establish the technical and commercial feasibility of a commercial-scale CO 2 geological storage complex for Deseret Power Electric Cooperative Bonanza Power Plant and other CO 2 sources in the northeast Uinta Basin, Utah, with the goal to securely store at least 50 million metric tons of captured CO 2 and accelerate CO 2 capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) deployment. The project team established high-potential technical and commercial feasibility for a storage site within the east Uinta Basin (Utah), in the Cretaceous sandstones (Frontier, Dakota, and Buckhorn), Entrada Sandstone, Nugget Sandstone, and/or Weber Sandstone southwest of the Bonanza coal-fired power plant. This project collected and analyzed state-of-the-art data to characterize the storage complex consistent with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) permitting standards. The team conducted extensive analog studies, outcrop mapping, and data sampling, which largely contributed to understanding the subsurface lithology and facies. Existing data were obtained and assessed from Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining (DOGM), Utah Geological Survey (UGS), Colorado Geological Survey (CGS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and EPA. These data were analyzed using state-of-the-art CCUS technologies for Societal Considerations, Site Characterization, Modeling and Simulations, Risk Assessment, Management and Monitoring, potential Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI Well Permitting, and Technical/Economic Feasibility. Through these high-resolution data collection and feasibility studies, this project was expected to provide a reference for initiating Underground Injection Control (UIC) and other commercial-scale geological storage permitting processes in the Western United States, ultimately contributing to the nation's decarbonization goals through low-risk, cost-effective commercial-scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2009

Old Faithful Model for Radiolytic Gas-Driven Cryovolcanism at Enceladus

A new model is presented on how chemically driven cryovolcanism might contribute to episodic outgassing at the icy moon Enceladus and potentially elsewhere including Europa and Kuiper Belt Objects. Exposed water ices can become oxidized from radiolytic chemical alteration of near-surface water ice by space environment irradiation. In contact with primordially abundant reductants such as NH3, CH4, and other hydrocarbons, the product oxidants can react exothermically to produce volatile gases driving cryovolcanism via gas-piston forces on any subsurface liquid reservoirs. Radiolytic oxidants such as H2O2 and O2 can continuously accumulate deep in icy regoliths and be conveyed by rheological flows to subsurface chemical reaction zones over million-year time scales indicated by cratering ages for active regions of Enceladus and Europa. Surface blanketing with cryovolcanic plume ejecta would further accelerate regolith burial of radiolytic oxidants. Episodic heating from transient gravitational tides, radioisotope decay, impacts, or other geologic events might occasionally accelerate chemical reaction rates and ignite the exothermic release of cumulative radiolytic oxidant energy. The time history for the suggested "Old Faithful" model of radiolytic gas-driven cryovolcanism at Enceladus and elsewhere therefore consists of long periods of chemical energy accumulation punctuated by much briefer episodes of cryovolcanic activity. The most probable sequence for detection of activity in the current epoch is a long evolutionary phase of slow but continuous oxidant accumulation over billions of years followed by continuous but variable high activity over the past 10(exp 7)-10(exp 8) years. Detectable cryovolcanic activity could then later decline due to near-total oxidation of the rheologically accessible ice crust and depletion the accessible reductant abundances, as may have already occurred for Europa in the more intense radiation environment of Jupiter's magnetosphere. Astrobiological potential of Enceladus could correspondingly be higher than at Europa due to a less extreme state of oxidation and greater residual abundance of organics.

Cooper, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) Data, 2024, Trail Creek, Colorado

This dataset contains Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) data collected at Trail Creek, Colorado, in 2024. EMI surveys were conducted to investigate the spatial distribution of electrical conductivity in the subsurface, providing insights into soil moisture and subsurface geological features. The surveys were performed along multiple transects to capture variations in conductivity influenced by changes in soil composition, moisture content, and underlying geological structures. This dataset complements other geophysical data collected in the region, including Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and Terrestrial LiDAR Scanning (TLS), providing a detailed understanding of the subsurface and its impact on surface vegetation and hydrological processes. The data are valuable for environmental geophysics, ecological research, and hydrological modeling in mountainous ecosystems. The files include: - data.zip: the raw EMI data (.csv) - inversion.zip: the inverted resistivity model (.csv and .kml) - kriging.zip: the kriging resistivity model (.csv, .tif, .kmz) - flmd.csv: file level metadata file describing all files within this dataset - dd.csv: data dictionary file describing the column headers within CSV files This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

CMD Mini-Explorer↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Data-driven Platform for Subsurface Energy Production

Subsurface energy activities such as unconventional resource recovery, enhanced geothermal energy systems, and geologic carbon storage require fast and reliable methods to account for complex, multiphysical processes in heterogeneous fractured and porous media. Although reservoir simulation is considered the industry standard for simulating these subsurface systems with injection and/or extraction operations, reservoir simulation requires spatio-temporal “Big Data” into the simulation model, which is typically a major challenge during model development and computational phase. In this work, we developed and applied various deep neural network-based approaches to (1) process multiscale image segmentation, (2) generate ensemble members of drainage networks, flow channels, and porous media using deep convolutional generative adversarial network, (3) construct multiple hybrid neural networks such as convolutional LSTM and convolutional neural network-LSTM to develop fast and accurate reduced order models for shale gas extraction, and (4) physics-informed neural network and deep Q-learning for flow and energy production. We hypothesized that physicsbased machine learning/deep learning can overcome the shortcomings of traditional machine learning methods where data-driven models have faltered beyond the data and physical conditions used for training and validation. We improved and developed novel approaches to demonstrate that physics-based ML can allow us to incorporate physical constraints (e.g., scientific domain knowledge) into ML framework. Outcomes of this project will be readily applicable for many energy and national security problems that are particularly defined by multiscale features and network systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Locating Undocumented Wells Using Historical Oil and Gas Exploration Maps: A Case Study in Osage County, Oklahoma

Undocumented oil and gas wells lack reliable information about their locations and characteristics, making them difficult to identify. These wells can result in unanticipated delays and costs in the development of nearby surface and subsurface resources, and, if improperly plugged, can cause contamination. This study leverages historical petroleum exploration maps to locate such wells, focusing on Osage County, Oklahoma. Two sets of early 20th century oil and gas exploration maps by the United States Geological Survey were georeferenced and analyzed using a computer vision model to detect well symbols. The locations of detected wells were compared to the location of known wells in the database from the Bureau of Indian Affairs Osage Agency to identify potential undocumented wells. The analysis yielded over 500 potential undocumented wells, with dry holes constituting the largest fraction. Field verification confirmed the presence of some undocumented wells. Comparison with prior work revealed limited overlap, underscoring the complementary value of historical oil and gas maps for locating undocumented wells. This approach demonstrates the utility of integrating historical cartographic resources with modern geospatial and machine learning techniques to improve the identification and management of undocumented wells.

Energy - Petroleum↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Geologic History of Mars: An Astrobiology Perspective

Fourteen SNC meteorites contain information which must be incorporated with recent spaceflight data for developing Mars' geologic history. SNCs have crystallization ages of 4500 to 160 m.y. Tle oldest meteorite ALH84001 contains information on the Noachian period of Mars' history. There are no meteorites from the Hesperian period and the remaining 13 meteorites fall into two age groups within the Amazonian: The nakhlites around 1300 m.y. and the shergottites between 800-160 m.y. Oxygen isotopic analysis of Martian samples shows two distinct O2 reservoirs throughout Martian history indicating late additions of volatiles and a lack of plate tectonics prior to 3.9 Gy. Evidence for percolation of aqueous brines through impact-produced fractures in the rocky surface is contained in the 3.9 Gy-old ALH84001 carbonate deposits. These carbonates precipitated at approx. 100 C. At this time life had already evolved on Earth. Early Mars could have hosted life similar to the bacteria that inhabited early Earth. Potential microorganisms could have been transported into fractures by carbonate-bearing waters and their remains could have become incorporated into the precipitated carbonate. Since Mars had a weak magnetic field at this time, it can be hypothesized that some of the Martian microorganisms may have been similar to terrestrial magnetotactic bacteria. Over geologic time episodic cratering, and tectonic events have occurred on Mars along with the periodic release of subsurface waters which may have produced clays within SNC meteorites. The geochemical data contained within SNC meteorites complements previous observational data and the recent Mars Global Surveyor data to provide a geological and environmental history which spans almost the entire lifespan on Mars. One of the outstanding features of this model is the possible creation of an early (about 4 Gy) volatile reservoir distinct from the outgassed Mars volatiles, and the persistence of this reservoir throughout most, if not all of subsequent Mars' history. Within the framework of this history a potential scenario for a possible record of living organisms is provided by suggestive structures and organic signatures trapped within secondary mineral deposits and alteration features of some SNC meteorites. Tracing the differences in oxygen isotopic compositions within Martian components allows us to gain insight in the history of Mars.

Gibson, Everett K.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Aseismic crustal deformation in the Transverse Ranges of southern California

Using geodetic data at a plate boundary, the subsurface displacements that accompany plate motion were modeled as the sum of rigid block motion and the elastic effects of frictional drag between blocks in a model consisting of 12 blocks and 27 rectangular fault patches. The block motion inferred from the geodetic data has the same order of magnitude as the geologic estimates, and for many faults the agreement was excellent. The model implies about 20 mm/y of crustal shortening normal to the trend of the San Andreas fault.

Cheng, Abe↗
NASA NTRS2020

Freeze-Thaw Cycling as a Chemical Weathering Agent on a Cold and Icy Mars

Liquid water was abundant on early Mars, but whether the climate was warm and wet or cold and icy with punctuated periods of melting is still poorly understood. Modern climate models for Mars tend to predict a colder, icier early climate than previously imagined. In addition, ice and glaciation have been major geologic agents throughout the later Hesperian and Amazonian eras. One process that can act in such climates is repeated freezing and thawing of water on the surface and in the subsurface, and is significant because it can occur anywhere with an active layer and could have persisted for a time after liquid water was no longer stable on Mars’ surface. As freeze-thaw is the dominant mechanical weathering process in most glacial/periglacial terrains, it was likely a significant geomorphologic driver at local to regional scales during past climates, and would potentially have been most active when day-average surface temperatures exceeded 0 °C for part of the year. Indeed, freeze-thaw involving liquid water in the Amazonian is evidenced by abundant geomorphic features including polygonal ground and solifluction lobes requiring seasonal thawing. In addition to physical modification, freezing can drive solutions towards supersaturation and force dissolved solutes out as precipitates. In Mars-like terrains, dissolved solutes are typically dominated by silica. In polar regions on Earth, freeze-thaw cycles have been shown to promote deposition of silica, and freeze-thaw experiments on synthetic solutions found stable amorphous silica that built up over multiple cycles. Freeze-thaw may therefore be an important but overlooked chemical weathering process on Mars. However, our ability to assess its impact on alteration of martian terrains is majorly limited by the current lack of understanding of the alteration phases produced (and formation rates) under controlled freeze-thaw weathering of Mars-relevant materials. To address this knowledge gap, we report results from (1) freeze-thaw weathering products found at a glacial Mars analog site at the Three Sisters, Oregon, and (2) new controlled freeze-thaw experiments on basaltic material.

Scudder, N. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

NNSA-IAEC Area: Workshop on Nuclear Waste Management and Subsurface Science (8-10 November 2022)

The 7 th workshop of the NNSA-IAEC collaboration was conducted on November 8-10 2022. The workshop was held at the geologic survey of Israel, Jerusalem. The IAEC hosted the workshop. The main topic of the workshop evolved around the results of the characterization borehole drilled in the Yamin plain during 2022 and associated experimental work and modeling results. The new data will be integrated for the applicability analysis of intermediate depth borehole (IDB) disposal for spent fuel in the Yamin plain. The first day of the workshop (November 8 th ) was dedicated to a geological field trip in the Judea desert depicting a similar cross section to that found in the Yamin plain. During the 9 th and 10 th of November the characterization BH results were presented, results of new work on the Miocene Hazeva fm. were presented, and this year’s outcome of the different collaboration groups were given.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Tech Briefs, July 2013

Dielectrophoresis-Based Particle Sensor Using Nanoelectrode Arrays; Multi-Dimensional Damage Detection for Surfaces and Structures; ULTRA: Underwater Localization for Transit and Reconnaissance Autonomy; Autonomous Cryogenic Leak Detector for Improving Launch Site Operations; Submillimeter Planetary Atmospheric Chemistry Exploration Sounder; Method for Reduction of Silver Biocide Plating on Metal Surfaces; Silicon Micromachined Microlens Array for THz Antennas; Forward-Looking IED Detector Ground Penetrating Radar; Fully Printed, Flexible, Phased Array Antenna for Lunar Surface Communication, Battery Charge Equalizer with Transformer Array; An Efficient, Highly Flexible Multi-Channel Digital Downconverter Architecture; Dimmable Electronic Ballast for a Gas Discharge Lamp; Conductive Carbon Nanotube Inks for Use with Desktop Inkjet Printing Technology; Enhanced Schapery Theory Software Development for Modeling Failure of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates; High-Performance, Low-Temperature-Operating, Long-Lifetime Aerospace Lubricants; Carbon Nanotube Microarrays Grown on Nanoflake Substrates; Differential Muon Tomography to Continuously Monitor Changes in the Composition of Subsurface Fluids; Microgravity Drill and Anchor System; 20 Granular Media-Based Tunable Passive Vibration Suppressor; 21 Miga Aero Actuator and 2D Machined Mechanical Binary Latch; Micro-XRF for In Situ Geological Exploration of Other Planets; Hydrogen-Enhanced Lunar Oxygen Extraction and Storage Using Only Solar Power; Uplift of Ionospheric Oxygen Ions During Extreme Magnetic Storms; Miniaturized, High-Speed, Modulated X-Ray Source; Hollow-Fiber Spacesuit Water Membrane Evaporator 25 High-Power Single-Mode 2.65-micrometers InGaAsSb/AlInGaAsSb Diode Lasers; Optical Device for Converting a Laser Beam Into Two Co-aligned but Oppositely Directed Beams; A Hybrid Fiber/Solid-State Regenerative Amplifier with Tunable Pulse Widths for Satellite Laser Ranging; X-Ray Diffractive Optics; SynGenics Optimization System (SynOptSys); 29 CFD Script for Rapid TPS Damage Assessment; radEq Add-On Module for CFD Solver Loci-CHEM; Science Opportunity Analyzer (SOA) Version 8; 30 Autonomous Byte Stream Randomizer; Distributed Engine Control Empirical/Analytical Verification Tools; Dynamic Server-Based KML Code Generator Method for Level-of-Detail Traversal of Geospatial Data; Automated Planning of Science Products Based on Nadir Overflights and Alerts for Onboard and Ground Processing; Linked Autonomous Interplanetary Satellite Orbit Navigation; Risk-Constrained Dynamic Programming for Optimal Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing; Scheduling Operations for Massive Heterogeneous Clusters; Deepak Condenser Model (DeCoM); Flight Software Math Library; Recirculating 1-K-Pot for Pulse-Tube Cryostats; 35 Method for Processing Lunar Regolith Using Microwaves; Wells for In Situ Extraction of Volatiles from Regolith (WIEVR); and Estimating the Backup Reaction Wheel Orientation Using Reaction Wheel Spin Rates Flight Telemetry from a Spacecraft.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal district energy systems coupled with seasonal underground thermal energy storage: a U.S. techno-economic screening by climate and geology

In the United States, cooling-dominated commercial building loads can cause geothermal heat pump-based district energy systems to accumulate a long-term subsurface thermal imbalance, motivating the incorporation of seasonal underground thermal energy storage. We developed a transferable workflow to evaluate geothermal district systems that pair ground heat exchangers with seasonal underground thermal energy storage. Using standardized hourly loads for seven commercial buildings and a uniform cost framework, we simulated ten U.S. cities with a physics-based ground heat exchanger model, subsurface storage simulations, and economic assessment to isolate the roles of climate and hydrogeology. In cooling-dominated cities, underground thermal energy storage supplied the majority of annual cooling, cutting electricity use and summer peaks substantially while achieving levelized costs comparable to or below conventional chiller-boiler plants. In cooler climates, the storage share shrunk, required borefield size and costs rose, and levelized cost of energy increased nearly linearly with declining underground thermal energy storage fraction, indicating storage fraction as the primary economic lever. Sensitivity analysis showed capital risk dominated by borefield drilling and surface heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning and piping, with underground thermal energy storage costs secondary. This workflow provides a transparent foundation for site-specific design and screening of next-generation geothermal district energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-lapse VSP integration and calibration of subsurface stress field utilizing machine learning approaches: A case study of the morrow B formation, FWU

This study aims to develop a methodology for calibrating subsurface stress changes through time-lapse vertical seismic profiling (VSP) integration. The selected study site is a region around the injector well located within Farnsworth field unit (FWU), where there is an ongoing CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operation. In our study, a site-specific rock physics model was created from extensive geological, geophysical, and geomechanical characterization through 3D seismic data, well logs, and core assessed as part of the 1D MEM conducted on the characterization well within the study area. Here, the Biot-Gassmann workflow was utilized to combine the rock physics and reservoir simulation outputs to determine the seismic velocity change due to fluid substitution. Modeled seismic velocities attributed to mean effective stress were determined from the geomechanical simulation outputs, and the stress-velocity relationship developed from ultrasonic seismic velocity measurements. A machine learning-assisted workflow comprised of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimizer (PSO) was utilized to minimize a penalty function created between the modeled seismic velocities and the observed time-lapse VSP dataset. The successful execution of this workflow has affirmed the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements for 4D-VSP geomechanical stress calibration pending measurable stress sensitivities within the anticipated effective stress changes and the availability of suitable and reliable datasets for petroelastic modeling. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Impact-driven mobilization of deep crustal brines on dwarf planet Ceres

Ceres, the only dwarf planet in the inner Solar System, appears to be a relict ocean world. Data collected by NASA's Dawn spacecraft provided evidence that global aqueous alteration within Ceres resulted in a chemically evolved body that remains volatile-rich(1). Recent emplacement of bright deposits sourced from brines attests to Ceres being a persistently geologically active world(2,3), but the surprising longevity of this activity at the 92-km Occator crater has yet to be explained. Here, we use new high-resolution Dawn gravity data to study the subsurface architecture of the region surrounding Occator crater, which hosts extensive young bright carbonate deposits (faculae). Gravity data and thermal modelling imply an extensive deep brine reservoir beneath Occator, which we argue could have been mobilized by the heating and deep fracturing associated with the Occator impact, leading to long-lived extrusion of brines and formation of the faculae. Moreover, we find that pre-existing tectonic cracks may provide pathways for deep brines to migrate within the crust, extending the regions affected by impacts and creating compositional heterogeneity. The long-lived hydrological system resulting from the impact might also occur for large impacts in icy moons, with implications for creation of transient habitable niches over time.High-resolution data of Ceres's bright spots (faculae), obtained by Dawn's second extended mission, suggest the existence of a deep brine-rich reservoir that emerged to the surface through long-lived cryovolcanic activity as a consequence of the impact that created Occator crater.

C. A. Raymond↗
NASA NTRS2023

Highly Restricted Near‐Surface Permafrost Extent During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

To better understand how near‐surface permafrost may respond to future warming, we explore the equilibrium spatial extent of near‐surface permafrost during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP), which shares characteristics of the projected future climate. Our simulations, which are constrained by proxy records, suggest highly restricted near‐surface permafrost extent during the mPWP, akin to future large-scale permafrost degradation projections of our model for the end of this century. Our study indicates dramatically smaller-than-present near‐surface permafrost extent in the geological past under climate conditions analogous to those expected if global warming continues unabated. This absence in permafrost will come with critical implications for the global carbon cycle, human livelihoods and infrastructures, and surface and subsurface hydrology.

near‐surface permafrost↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of Time Lapse VSP Integration Workflow: A Case Study at Farnsworth CO2-EOR Project

Abstract This study aims to develop a 4D Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) integration workflow to improve the prediction of subsurface stress changes. The selected study site is a 5-spot pattern within the ongoing CO2-EOR operations at the Farnsworth Field Unit FWU in Ochiltree County, Texas. The specific pattern has undergone extensive geological and geomechanical characterization through the acquisition of 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core. This workflow constrains a numerical hydromechanical model by applying a penalty function formed between "modeled" versus "observed" time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. Analyses of geophysical logs and ultra-sonic measurements on core exhibit measurable sensitivities to changes in both fluid saturation and mean effective stress. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model and stress-velocity relationship, which inform the numerical models used to generate the "modeled" portion of the penalty function. The "observed" portion of the penalty function is provided by a novel elastic full-waveform inversion of the available 3D baseline and three monitor surveys to produce high-quality estimates of time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. The modeling workflow accounts sequentially for fluid substitution and stress impacts. Hydrodynamic and geomechanical properties of the 3D coupled numerical model are estimated through geostatistical integration of well log and core data with 3D seismic inversion products. Changes in seismic velocities due to fluid substitution are computed using the Biot-Gassmann workflow and site-specific rock physics. Stress impacts on time-lapse seismic velocity changes are modeled from the effective stress output of the hydromechanical model and are initially based on the velocity versus effective stress relationship extracted from core mechanical testing. Based on the principle of superposition of seismic wavefields, seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution and that due to changes in mean effective stress are treated as linearly additive. The modeled results are upscaled using Backus averaging to reconcile scale discrepancies between the modeled and measured datasets to formulate the penalty function. This manuscript presents the forward modeling process and concludes that for the base case, the seismic velocity changes due to mean effective stress dominates over the seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution because of the extensive range of the pressure perturbations. Successful minimization of this penalty function calibrates the coupled hydrodynamic geomechanical numerical model and affirms the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements such as 4D-VSP for geomechanical calibration.

02 PETROLEUM↗