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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Generalization of Threshold-Based and Probability-Based Models of Information Diffusion

Diffusion of information through complex networks is of interest in studies such as propagation prediction and influence maximization, both of which have applications in viral marketing and rumor controlling. There are a variety of information diffusion models, all of which simulate the adoption and spread of information over time. However, there is a lack of understanding of whether, despite their conceptual differences, these models represent the same underlying generative structures. For instance, if two different models utilize different conceptual mechanisms, but generate the same results, does the choice of model matter? A classification of diffusion of information models is developed based on the neighbor knowledge of the model infection requirement and the stochasticity of the model. This classification allows for the identification of models that fall into each respective category. The study involves the analysis of the following agent-based models on directed scale-free networks: (1) a linear absolute threshold model (LATM), (2) a linear fractional threshold model (LTFM), (3) the independent cascade model (ICM), (4) Bass-Rand-Rust model (BRRM) (5) a stochastic linear absolute threshold model (SLATM) (6) a stochastic fractional threshold model (SLFTM), and (7) Dodds–Watts model (DWM). Through the execution of simulations and analysis of the experimental results, the distinctive properties of each model are identified. Our analysis reveals that similarity in conceptual design does not imply similarity in behavior concerning speed, final state of nodes and edges, and sensitivity to parameters. Therefore, we highlight the importance of considering the unique behavioral characteristics of each model when selecting a suitable information diffusion model for a particular application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structure–Property Relationships of Recycled Lithium-Ion Battery Cathodes: Microstructure Optimization Using Virtual Materials Testing

The increasing demand for sustainable battery technologies requires effective recycling strategies for end-of-life lithium-ion battery cathodes. In this study, virtual materials testing, a well-established framework for modeling conventionally manufactured NMC-based cathodes, is applied to partially recycled cathodes. To this end, virtual cathodes consisting of mixtures of pristine and recycled NMC particles are utilized to systematically analyze structure–property relationships depending on mixing ratios and different spatial arrangement strategies. For this purpose, a stochastic 3D model is developed that is capable of generating virtual cathodes with arbitrary volume fractions of active materials and mixing ratios of pristine and recycled NMC particles. Particularly, the stochastic 3D model can mimic the different size distributions of pristine and recycled particles that are observed in image data. Additionally, the model allows the structuring of pristine and recycled NMC either uniformly mixed or layer-wise arranged, mimicking single- and dual-layer cathodes. Subsequently, a systematic computational analysis is conducted to assess the influence of increasing active material ratios of recycled particles, ranging from 0 % to 100 %, while maintaining a constant overall active material volume fraction. The impact of particle mixing on cathode performance is evaluated by examining transport-relevant geometrical descriptors and effective properties, such as geodesic tortuosity, specific surface area, and tortuosity factor.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of the Optical Stochastic Cooling at the IOTA Storage Ring Using ELEGANT

In support of the Optical Stochastic Cooling (OSC) experiment at IOTA, we implemented a high-fidelity model of OSC in ELEGANT. The element is generalizable to any OSC experiment and captures three main behaviors; (i) the longitudinal time of flight OSC, (ii) the effects between the transverse motion of particles in the beam and the transverse distribution of undulator radiation, and (iii) the incoherent contributions of neighboring particles. Together these produce a highly accurate model of OSC and were benchmarked using the results from the IOTA OSC experiment.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Training models using forces computed by stochastic electronic structure methods

Abstract Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) can play a very important role in generating accurate data needed for constructing potential energy surfaces. We argue that QMC has advantages in terms of a smaller systematic bias and an ability to cover phase space more completely. The stochastic noise can ease the training of the machine learning model. We discuss how stochastic errors affect the generation of effective models by analyzing the errors within a linear least squares procedure, finding that there is an advantage to having many relatively imprecise data points for constructing models. We then analyze the effect of noise on a model of many-body silicon finding that noise in some situations improves the resulting model. We then study the effect of QMC noise on two machine learning models of dense hydrogen used in a recent study of its phase diagram. The noise enables us to estimate the errors in the model. We conclude with a discussion of future research problems.

Ceperley, David M. (ORCID:0000000150826271)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

ANN-based ground motion model for Turkey using stochastic simulation of earthquakes

SUMMARY Turkey is characterized by a high level of seismic activity attributed to its complex tectonic structure. The country has a dense network to record earthquake ground motions; however, to study previous earthquakes and to account for potential future ones, ground motion simulations are required. Ground motion simulation techniques offer an alternative means of generating region-specific time-series data for locations with limited seismic networks or regions with seismic data gaps, facilitating the study of potential catastrophic earthquakes. In this research, a local ground motion model (GMM) for Turkey is developed using region-specific simulated records, thus constructing a homogeneous data set. The simulations employ the stochastic finite-fault approach and utilize validated input-model parameters in distinct regions, namely Afyon, Erzincan, Duzce, Istanbul and Van. To overcome the limitations of linear regression-based models, artificial neural network is used to establish the form of equations and coefficients. The predictive input parameters encompass fault mechanism (FM), focal depth (FD), moment magnitude (Mw), Joyner and Boore distance (RJB) and average shear wave velocity in the top 30 m (Vs30). The data set comprises 7359 records with Mw ranging between 5.0 and 7.5 and RJB ranging from 0 to 272 km. The results are presented in terms of spectral ordinates within the period range of 0.03–2.0 s, as well as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The quantification of the GMM uncertainty is achieved through the analysis of residuals, enabling insights into inter- and intra-event uncertainties. The simulation results and the effectiveness of the model are verified by comparing the predicted values of ground motion parameters with the observed values recorded during previous events in the region. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model in simulating physical phenomena.

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh (ORCID:0000000337531676)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of coupling a stochastic convective parameterization with the Zhang–McFarlane scheme on precipitation simulation in the DOE E3SMv1.0 atmosphere model

Abstract. A stochastic deep convection parameterization is implemented into the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1.0 (EAMv1). This study evaluates its performance in simulating precipitation. Compared to the default model, the probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity in the new simulation is greatly improved. The well-known problem of “too much light rain and too little heavy rain” is alleviated, especially over the tropics. As a result, the contribution from different rain rates to the total precipitation amount is shifted toward heavier rain. The less frequent occurrence of convection contributes to suppressed light rain, while more intense large-scale and convective precipitation contributes to enhanced heavy total rain. The synoptic and intraseasonal variabilities of precipitation are enhanced as well to be closer to observations. The sensitivity of the rainfall intensity PDF to the model vertical resolution is examined. The relationship between precipitation and dilute convective available potential energy in the stochastic simulation agrees better with that in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations compared with the standard model simulation. The annual mean precipitation is largely unchanged with the use of the stochastic scheme except over the tropical western Pacific, where a moderate increase in precipitation represents a slight improvement. The responses of precipitation and its extremes to climate warming are similar with or without the stochastic deep convection scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Stochastic Stability of Deep Markov Models

Deep Markov models (DMM) are generative models which are scalable and expressive generalization of Markov models for representation, learning, and inference problems. DMMs using deep neural networks to parametrize the transition of Markov probability distributions have recently been shown to provide more expressiveness in modeling sequential data and dynamical system responses. However, the fundamental stochastic stability guarantees of such models have not been thoroughly investigated. In this paper, we present a rigorous analytical method to prove the necessary and sufficient conditions of DMM's stochastic stability. This task is achieved by spectral analysis of the efficiently computed Jacobians of probabilistic maps modeled by deep neural networks. We make theoretical connections between the eigenvalues of neural network's weights and the different activation function types used on the stability and overall dynamic behavior of DMMs with Gaussian distributions. We empirically substantiate our theoretical results on stochastic stability and eigenvalue spectra via several numerical experiments. Formal stability guarantees of DMMs can substantially improve their robustness and trustworthiness, necessary for reliable use in safety-critical real-world applications.

Drgona, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Stochastic Stability of Deep Markov Models

Deep Markov models (DMM) are generative models which are scalable and expressive generalization of Markov models for representation, learning, and inference problems. However, the fundamental stochastic stability guarantees of such models have not been thoroughly investigated. In this paper, we present a novel stability analysis method and provide sufficient conditions of DMM's stochastic stability. The proposed stability analysis is based on the contraction of probabilistic maps modeled by deep neural networks. We make connections between the spectral properties of neural network's weights and different types of used activation function on the stability and overall dynamic behavior of DMMs with Gaussian distributions. Based on the theory, we propose a few practical methods for designing constrained DMMs with guaranteed stability. We empirically substantiate our theoretical results via intuitive numerical experiments using the proposed stability constraints.

Drgona, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Progress Towards a Predictive Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling Framework: Overview and Recent Validation Efforts

This presentation summarizes progress to date of the U.S. Department of Energy project, "Development of a computational framework for modeling golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near wind farms," which focuses on stochastic behavioral modeling of soaring raptors across landscape, facility, and turbine spatiotemporal scales. This publicly available, open-source modeling framework includes behavioral models based on three different underlying principles: energy minimization at landscape scale, behavioral heuristics at landscape-facility scale, and data-driven behaviors at the facility-micro-scale. We will briefly overview the key advancements in the behavioral modeling state of the art, which leverages multiple high-resolution telemetry data sources combined with high-fidelity atmospheric flow modeling insights. We then present preliminary results from a validation study in Altamont, California. This new study involves a novel application of the Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS), in a new geographic locale, to understand facility scale eagle movement patterns over time scales representative of a wind project's lifetime. For this desktop analysis (that does not depend on any high-performance computing resources), SSRS simultaneously considers a variety of wind conditions and eagle approach vectors toward a project site of interest. This work demonstrates the integration of publicly available landscape-scale atmospheric datasets, our recently improved engineering updraft models (see presentation from Thedin et al.), and our energy minimization behavioral models within the SSRS framework. While we only present results from a single behavioral model, the integration of these three modeling components forms the foundation for our more sophisticated behavioral models (see presentations from Brandes et al., Sandhu et al.) that are under active development. Results are presented in the form of presence maps, which may be applied to estimate risk to wildlife, augment ground survey data, inform wind-plant operations, or incorporated into wind-plant designs.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Modelling of the Optical Stochastic Cooling Experiment at IOTA

A proof-of-principle optical-stochastic cooling (OSC) experiment is currently in its commissioning phase at the Fermilab’s IOTA ring. In support of this experiment, we recently implemented an OSC element in the ELEGANT tracking program. The model, based on a semi-analytic description of OSC [*], supports the simulation of a large number of macroparticles (10⁴-10⁶) over many turns (10⁶). This paper showcases the simulation capabilities to investigate the beam dynamics in the presence of cooling (or self-interacting radiation field in general) and quantify the impact of various sources of error (e.g. transverse and phase jitter), guide data analysis.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing green infrastructure placement under precipitation uncertainty

Increased urbanization, infrastructure degradation, and climate change threaten to overwhelm stormwater systems across the nation, rendering them ineffective. Green Infrastructure (GI) practices are low cost, low regret strategies that can contribute to urban runoff management. However, questions remain as to how to best distribute GI practices through urban watersheds given precipitation uncertainty and the variable hydrological responses to them. We develop stochastic programming models to determine the optimal placement of GI practices across a set of candidate locations in a watershed to minimize the total expected runoff under medium-term precipitation uncertainties. Specifically, we first develop a two-stage stochastic programming model. Next, we reformulate this model using perturbed parameters to reduce the requisite computational time and extend it to multi-stage. In addition, we introduce constraints that allow for incorporating sub-catchment-level runoff reduction considerations. Furthermore, we account for hydrological connectivity in the watershed using an underlying acyclic connectivity graph of sub-catchments and incorporate various practical considerations into the models. In addition, we develop a systemic approach to downscale the existing daily precipitation projections into hourly units and efficiently estimate the corresponding hydrological responses. These advancements are brought together in a case study for an urban watershed in a mid-sized city in the U.S., where we perform sensitivity analyses, evaluate the importance of the considered constraints, and provide insights.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Stochastic Gause Predator-Prey model: Noise-induced extinctions and invariance

We consider the Gause predator-prey with general bounded or sub‑linear functional responses, – which includes those of Holling types Ⅰ–Ⅳ. – and multiplicative Gaussian noise. In contrast to previous studies, the prey in our model follows logistic dynamics while the predator's population is solely regulated by consumption of the prey. To ensure well-posedeness, we derive explicit Lyapunov‐type criteria ensuring global positivity and moment boundedness of solutions. We find conditions for noise‑induced extinctions, proving that stochasticity can drive either population to collapse even when the deterministic analogue predicts stable coexistence. In the case when the predator becomes extinct, we establish a limiting distribution for the predator's population. Last, for functional responses of Holling type Ⅰ, we provide sufficient conditions on the intensity of the noise for the existence and uniqueness of a stationary distribution.

Gause model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model data for Flood Frequency Analysis using Stochastic Storm Transposition and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model

This archived provides scripts and input files used for the implementation of a novel approach to conduct process-based Flood Frequency Analysis using a Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM). As a proof-of-concept, this study uses the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct flood frequency analysis by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a ~2000 km2 Southeast Texas watershed.The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include TXT, CSV, DAT, SBATCH, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model and RainyDay model have .XML and .SST extensions, respectively, and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.This archive contains:* Scripts and data files essential for generating the ATS model input. It uses the Watershed Workflow package to produce both mesh and ATS input files. * Jupyter notebooks designated for the ATS model evaluation, covering both long-term simulations and 40 rainfall-runoff events.* Input files required to simulate SST storm events using RainyDay.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗