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Recent efforts in the modeling of land mobile satellite systems are reported. These include descriptions of a simple model for prediction of fading statistics, a propagation simulator, and results from studies using the simulator. Predictions are compared to available measured data.
Radar modeling of mangal forest stands, in the Sundarbans area of Southern Bangladesh, was developed. The modeling employs radar system parameters with forest data on tree height, spacing, biomass, species combinations, and water (including slightly conductive water), content both in leaves and trunks of the mangal. For Sundri and Gewa tropical mangal forests, six model components are proposed, which are required to explain the contributions of various forest species combinations in the attenuation and scattering of mangal vegetated nonflooded or flooded surfaces. Statistical data of simulated images were compared with those of SIR-B images both to refine the modeling procedures and to appropriately characterize the model output. The possibility of delineation of flooded or nonflooded boundaries is discussed.
Radar modeling of mangal forest stands, in the Sundarbans area of Southern Bangladesh, was developed. The modeling employs radar system parameters such as wavelength, polarization, and incidence angle, with forest data on tree height, spacing, biomass, species combinations, and water content (including slightly conductive water) both in leaves and trunks of the mangal. For Sundri and Gewa tropical mangal forests, five model components are proposed, which are required to explain the contributions of various forest species combinations in the attenuation and scattering of mangal vegetated nonflooded or flooded surfaces. Statistical data of simulated images (HH components only) were compared with those of SIR-B images both to refine the modeling procedures and to appropriately characterize the model output. The possibility of delineation of flooded or non-flooded boundaries is discussed.
Radar modeling of mangal forest stands in the Sundarbans area of southern Bangladesh is discussed. The modeling uses radar system parameters with forest data on tree height, spacing, biomass, species combinations, and water content (including slightly conductive water) in leaves and trunks of the mangal. For Sundri and Gewa tropical mangal forests, six model components are proposed; the models are required to explain the contributions of various combinations of forest species in the attenuation and scattering of mangal-vegetated nonflooded or flooded surfaces. Statistical data of simulated images have been compared with those of SIR-B images both to refine the modeling procedures and to characterize the model output appropriately. The possibility of delineation of flooded or nonflooded boundaries is discussed.
The role of coherent structures in the production and dissipation of turbulence in a boundary layer is characterized, summarizing the results of recent investigations. Coherent motion is defined as a three-dimensional region of flow where at least one fundamental variable exhibits significant correlation with itself or with another variable over a space or time range significantly larger than the smallest local scales of the flow. Sections are then devoted to flow-visualization experiments, statistical analyses, numerical simulation techniques, the history of coherent-structure studies, vortices and vortical structures, conceptual models, and predictive models. Diagrams and graphs are provided.
A popular prescription for the galaxy formation, i.e., identifying peaks in the linear density field as sites of galaxy formation, is numerically justified under the Cold Dark Matter cosmogony. In particular, the peak-background scheme, originally developed to simplify analytic calculations of peak properties in a Gaussian random density field, is proven to be an excellent prescription for assigning peak tracers in low-resolution N-body simulations through many statistical comparisons. It is found that statistical properties of peak tracers allocated by the peak-background scheme closely resemble those of true peaks when the background smoothing length is about three times the galaxy scale and the correspondence improves as they evolve gravitationally. It is also shown that these peak particles are indeed strongly associated with nonlinear objects that are presently collapsed.
Based on previous laboratory experiments simulating solar wind sputtering of lunar surface materials, it appears that solar wind ions sputter secondary ions in sufficient numbers to be measured from low-altitude lunar orbit. Solar wind protons are hundreds of times less efficient than those used in standard secondary ion mass spectrometry; nevertheless secondary ions of Na, Mg, Al, Si, K, Ca, Mn, Ti and Fe were observed sputtered from sample simulants of mare and highland soils. These secondary ion fluxes depend both on concentration in the soil and on probability of ionization; yields of easily ionized elements such as K and Na are relatively much greater than those for the more electronegative elements and compounds. The principal geochemical indicator elements Na, Mg, Al, Si, K, Ca, Ti, Mn and Fe are nevertheless detectable. However, it has not been shown that the observed secondary ions vary strictly one-to-one with their concentrations in the geochemically distinct soil simulants used here. While we have a first order understanding of secondary ion sputtering, it is not clear that the observed ion yields can be linked with great accuracy to the simulant's composition. The simulants were analyzed by electron microprobe to establish their detailed composition. The observed secondary ion fluxes can then be compared with the microprobe results. For example Ti(+) fluxes from the three simulants correspond to the true composition with accuracies of better than 10 percent for the high-Ti basalt, and about 20 percent for the low-Ti simulant. The highlands simulant produced a statistically insignificant Ti(+) count rate. Here we discuss the results of further SIMS experiments using the ASU/Center for Solid State Science facility. With careful isolation and preparation of samples, we avoid the problems of the previous experiments. In particular, we will make use of ground-up sample to mimic the sputtering behavior of regolith, and will avoid charging by placing the soil on a conducting indium substrate. We report the results of a blind test of the SIMS technique using a sample of unknown composition.
Applying the standard weighted mean formula, [Sigma (sub i)n(sub i)ssigma(sub i, sup -2)], to determine the weighted mean of data, n(sub i), drawn from a Poisson distribution, will, on average, underestimate the true mean by approx. 1 for all true mean values larger than approx.3 when the common assumption is made that the error of the i th observation is sigma(sub i) = max square root of n(sub i), 1).This small, but statistically significant offset, explains the long-known observation that chi-square minimization techniques which use the modified Neyman'chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub N) equivalent Sigma(sub i)((n(sub i) - y(sub i)(exp 2)) / max(n(sub i), 1), to compare Poisson - distributed data with model values, y(sub i), will typically predict a total number of counts that underestimates the true total by about 1 count per bin. Based on my finding that weighted mean of data drawn from a Poisson distribution can be determined using the formula [Sigma(sub i)[n(sub i) + min(n(sub i), 1)](n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1)] / [Sigma(sub i)(n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1))], I propose that a new chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub gamma) equivalent, should always be used to analyze Poisson- distributed data in preference to the modified Neyman's chi(exp 2) statistic. I demonstrated the power and usefulness of,chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization by using two statistical fitting techniques and five chi(exp 2) statistics to analyze simulated X-ray power - low 15 - channel spectra with large and small counts per bin. I show that chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization with the Levenberg - Marquardt or Powell's method can produce excellent results (mean slope errors approx. less than 3%) with spectra having as few as 25 total counts.
The GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS, GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) is a community activity aiming to promote development of improved cloud parameterizations for application in the large-scale general circulation models (GCMs) used for climate research and for numerical weather prediction. The GCSS strategy is founded upon the use of cloud-system models (CSMs). These are "process" models with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to represent individual cloud elements, but spanning a wide range of space and time scales to enable statistical analysis of simulated cloud systems. GCSS also employs single-column versions of the parametric cloud models (SCMs) used in GCMs. GCSS has working groups on boundary-layer clouds, cirrus clouds, extratropical layer cloud systems, precipitating deep convective cloud systems, and polar clouds.
The GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS, GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) is a community activity aiming to promote development of improved cloud parameterizations for application in the large-scale general circulation models (GCMs) used for climate research and for numerical weather prediction (Browning et al, 1994). The GCSS strategy is founded upon the use of cloud-system models (CSMs). These are "process" models with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to represent individual cloud elements, but spanning a wide range of space and time scales to enable statistical analysis of simulated cloud systems. GCSS also employs single-column versions of the parametric cloud models (SCMs) used in GCMs. GCSS has working groups on boundary-layer clouds, cirrus clouds, extratropical layer cloud systems, precipitating deep convective cloud systems, and polar clouds.
This paper describes an interactive multimedia simulator for air transportation bomb threat training. The objective of this project is to improve the air transportation sector s capability to respond to bomb threats received by commercial airports and aircraft. The simulator provides realistic training on receiving and responding to a variety of bomb threats that might not otherwise be possible due to time, cost, or operational constraints. Validation analysis indicates that the use of the simulator resulted in statistically significant increases in individual ability to respond to these types of bomb threats.
This study introduces the use of a modified Longley-Rice irregular terrain model and digital elevation data representative of an analogue lunar site for the prediction of RF path loss over the lunar surface. The results are validated by theoretical models and past Apollo studies. The model is used to approximate the path loss deviation from theoretical attenuation over a reflecting sphere. Analysis of the simulation results provides statistics on the fade depths for frequencies of interest, and correspondingly a method for determining the maximum range of communications for various coverage confidence intervals. Communication system engineers and mission planners are provided a link margin and path loss policy for communication frequencies of interest.
The Gravity and Extreme Magnetism SMEX (GEMS) mission was selected by NASA for flight in 2014. GEMS will make the first sensitive survey of X-ray polarization across a wide range of source classes including black hole and neutron star binaries, AGN of different types, rotation and accretion-powered pulsars, magnetars, shell supernova remnants and pulsar wind nebulae. GEMS employs grazing-incidence foil mirrors and novel time-projection chamber (TPC) polarimeters leveraging the photoelectric effect. The GEMS detectors image the charge tracks of photoelectrons produced by 2 - 10 keV X-rays. The initial direction of the photoelectron is determined by the linear polarization of the photon. We present an overview of the data analysis challenges and methods for GEMS, including procedures for producing optimally filtered images of the charge tracks and estimating their initial directions. We illustrate our methods using laboratory measurements of polarized and unpolarized X-rays with flight-like detectors as well as from simulated tracks. We also present detailed simulations exploring the statistics of polarization measurements appropriate for GEMS, and make comparisons with previous work.
This paper presents an analysis framework for planetary missions that have coupled mobility and EDL (Entry-Descent-Landing) systems. Traditional systems engineering approaches to mobility missions such as MERs (Mars Exploration Rovers) and MSL (Mars Science Laboratory) independently study the EDL system and the mobility system, and does not perform explicit trade-off between them or risk minimization of the overall system. A major challenge is that EDL operation is inherently uncertain and its analysis results such as landing footprint are described using PDF (Probability Density Function). The proposed approach first builds a mobility cost-to-go map that encodes the driving cost of any point on the map to a science target location. The cost could include variety of metrics such as traverse distance, time, wheel rotation on soft soil, and closeness to hazards. It then convolves the mobility cost-to-go map with the landing PDF given by the EDL system, which provides a histogram of driving cost, which can be used to evaluate the overall risk of the mission. By capturing the coupling between EDL and mobility explicitly, this analysis framework enables quantitative tradeoff between EDL and mobility system performance, as well as the characterization of risks in a statistical way. The simulation results are presented with a realistic Mars terrain data
The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.
Soil moisture variations have a straightforward impact on overlying air temperatures, wetter soils can induce higher evaporative cooling of the soil and thus, locally, cooler temperatures overall. Not known, however, is the degree to which soil moisture variations can affect remote air temperatures through their impact on the atmospheric circulation. In this talk we describe a two-pronged analysis that addresses this question. In the first segment, an extensive ensemble of NASA/GSFC GEOS-5 atmospheric model simulations is analyzed statistically to isolate and quantify the contributions of various soil moisture states, both local and remote, to the variability of air temperature at a given local site. In the second segment, the relevance of the derived statistical relationships is evaluated by applying them to observations-based data. Results from the second segment suggest that the GEOS-5-based relationships do, at least to first order, hold in nature and thus may provide some skill to forecasts of air temperature at subseasonal time scales, at least in certain regions.
An orbiting sample Capture and Orient Module (COM) architecture for a Capture, Contain, and Return System (CCRS) payload concept for an Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) was developed to enable on-orbit capture, orientation, and transfer of a Mars sample container into a containment vessel for potential Mars Sample Return (MSR). The module is composed of a capture mechanism for containing the Orbiting Sample (OS), a capture cone to capture and contain the OS, an orientation mechanism to orient the OS, an External Transfer Mechanism (ETM) to cage the OS during capture and assemble it into the containment vessel, a capture trigger to trigger capture mechanism and ETM closure during OS capture, and a sensing system to inspect the OS and confirm capture and orientation. Statistical modeling and simulations of the OS during capture were performed to analyze the time to contact and perturbations to the spacecraft at first contact. A half-scale functional prototype of the module was developed to demonstrate end-to-end operation.
A ROTO architecture, braking and steering control law and display designs for a research high speed Rollout and Turnoff (ROTO) system applicable to transport class aircraft are described herein. Minimum surface friction and FMS database requirements are also documented. The control law designs were developed with the aid of a non-real time simulation program incorporating airframe and gear dynamics as well as steering and braking guidance algorithms. An attainable objective of this ROTO system, as seen from the results of this study, is to assure that the studied aircraft can land with runway occupancy times less then 53 seconds. Runway occupancy time is measured from the time the aircraft crosses the runway threshold until its wing tip clears the near side of the runway. Turnoff ground speeds of 70 knots onto 30 degree exits are allowed with dry and wet surface conditions. Simulation time history and statistical data are documented herein. Parameters which were treated as variables in the simulation study include aircraft touchdown weight/speed/location, aircraft CG, runway friction, sensor noise and winds. After further design and development of the ROTO control system beyond the system developed earlier, aft CG MD-11 aircraft no longer require auto-asymmetric braking (steering) and fly-by-wire nose gear steering. However, the auto ROTO nose gear hysteresis must be less than 2 degrees. The 2 sigma dispersion certified for MD-11 CATIIIB is acceptable. Using this longitudinal dispersion, three ROTO exits are recommended at 3300, 4950 and 6750 feet past the runway threshold. The 3300 foot exit is required for MD-81 class aircraft. Designs documented in this report are valid for the assumptions/models used in this simulation. It is believed that the results will apply to the general class of transport aircraft; however further effort is required to validate this assumption for the general case.