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At least 181 records · Page 10

Analytical Bit-Error Model of NAND Flash Memories for Dosimetry Application

In this work, we provide an analytical model for the total ionizing dose (TID) effects on the bit error statistics of commercial flash memory chips. We have validated the model with experimental data collected by irradiating several commercial NAND flash memory chips from different technology nodes. We find that our analytical model can project bit errors at higher TID values (~ 20 krad(Si)) from measured data at lower TID values (<1 krad(Si)). Based on our model and the measured data, we have formulated basic design rules for using a commercial flash memory chip as a dosimeter. We discuss the impact of NAND chip-to-chip variability, noise margin and the intrinsic errors on the dosimeter design using detailed experimentation.

3-D NAND↗

Monte Carlo Control Loops for Cosmic Shear Cosmology with DES Year 1

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. The Monte Carlo Control Loops (MCCL) is a forward modelling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the Ultra Fast Image Generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. We present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_{\ell}$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, Point Spread Function (PSF), an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and the fast estimation of the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a non-tomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_\ell$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $\Omega_m$, $\sigma_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{\rm{IA}}$, defined as $S_8D_{\rm{IA}} = \sigma_8(\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{\rm{IA}}$, where $D_{\rm{IA}}=1-0.11(A_{\rm{IA}}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{\rm{IA}}=0.895^{+0.054}_{-0.039}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60\% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gaussian process based optimization of molecular geometries using statistically sampled energy surfaces from quantum Monte Carlo

Optimization of atomic coordinates and lattice parameters remains a significant challenge to the wide use of stochastic electronic structure methods such as quantum Monte Carlo (QMC). Measurements of the forces and stress tensor by these methods contain statistical errors, challenging conventional gradient-based numerical optimization methods that assume deterministic results. Additionally, forces are not yet available for some methods, wavefunctions, and basis sets and when available may be expensive to compute to sufficiently high statistical accuracy near energy minima, where the energy surfaces are flat. Here, we explore the use of Gaussian process based techniques to sample the energy surfaces and reduce sensitivity to the statistical nature of the problem. We utilize Latin hypercube sampling, with the number of sampled energy points scaling quadratically with the number of optimized parameters. Furthermore, we show these techniques may be successfully applied to systems consisting of tens of parameters, demonstrating QMC optimization of a benzene molecule starting from a randomly perturbed, broken symmetry geometry.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

The clustering of the SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey quasar sample: testing observational systematics on the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurement

ABSTRACT Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) are considered to be a very robust standard ruler against various systematics. This premise has been tested against observational systematics, but not to the level required for the next generation of galaxy surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and Euclid. In this paper, we investigate the effect of observational systematics on the BAO measurement of the final sample of quasars from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 16 in order to prepare and hone a similar analysis for upcoming surveys. We employ catalogues with various treatments of imaging systematic effects using linear and neural network-based non-linear approaches and consider how the BAO measurement changes. We also test how the variations to the BAO fitting model respond to the observational systematics. As expected, we confirm that the BAO measurements obtained from the DR16 quasar sample are robust against imaging systematics well within the statistical error, while reporting slightly modified constraints that shift the line-of-sight BAO signal by less than 1.1 per cent. We use realistic simulations with similar redshift and angular distributions as the DR16 sample to conduct statistical tests for validating the pipeline, quantifying the significance of differences, and estimating the expected bias on the BAO scale in future high-precision data sets. Although we find a marginal impact for the eBOSS QSO data, the work presented here is of vital importance for constraining the nature of dark energy with the BAO feature in the new era of big data cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observations of geographically correlated orbit errors for TOPEX/Poseidon using the global positioning system

We have compared Global Positioning System (GPS)-based dynamic and reduced-dynamic TOPEX/Poseidon orbits over three 10-day repeat cycles of the ground-track. The results suggest that the prelaunch joint gravity model (JGM-1) introduces geographically correlated errors (GCEs) which have a strong meridional dependence. The global distribution and magnitude of these GCEs are consistent with a prelaunch covariance analysis, with estimated and predicted global rms error statistics of 2.3 and 2.4 cm rms, respectively. Repeating the analysis with the post-launch joint gravity model (JGM-2) suggests that a portion of the meridional dependence observed in JGM-1 still remains, with global rms error of 1.2 cm.

Christensen, E. J.↗

Chandra Observation of NGC 6822

Chandra observed the nearby dwarf galaxy NGC 6822. There are 70 sources in the Chandra field, two of which are fairly extended and likely background clusters of galaxies. A third source was resolved by Chandra and has the same size and position as a known supernova remnant. The suspected variability detected from this source in previous missions is shown to be in error. The majority of the remaining 67 sources are consistent with background sources. Of the 61 sources detected above a completeness limit of 10 events we estimate that 9+/-4+/-8 are associated with the galaxy including both systematic and statistical errors. We compare the X-ray positions of all sources with various catalogs and HST data'and offer tentative identifications for several. Based on the mass and star formation rate of NGC 6822 we only expect about 10 sources mostly high mass systems.

Tennant, Allyn F.↗

Effective theory of dark energy at redshift survey scales

We explore the phenomenological consequences of general late-time modifications of gravity in the quasi-static approximation, in the case where cold dark matter is non-minimally coupled to the gravitational sector. Assuming spectroscopic and photometric surveys with configuration parameters similar to those of the Euclid mission, we derive constraints on our effective description from three observables: the galaxy power spectrum in redshift space, tomographic weak-lensing shear power spectrum and the correlation spectrum between the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect and the galaxy distribution. In particular, with ΛCDM as fiducial model and a specific choice for the time dependence of our effective functions, we perform a Fisher matrix analysis and find that the unmarginalized 68% CL errors on the parameters describing the modifications of gravity are of order σ∼10{sup −2}–10{sup −3}. We also consider two other fiducial models. A nonminimal coupling of CDM enhances the effects of modified gravity and reduces the above statistical errors accordingly. In all cases, we find that the parameters are highly degenerate, which prevents the inversion of the Fisher matrices. Some of these degeneracies can be broken by combining all three observational probes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A continuation multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm

Here, we propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the required error tolerance is satisfied. CMLMC assumes discretization hierarchies that are defined a priori for each level and are geometrically refined across levels. Moreover, the actual choice of computational work across levels is based on parametric models for the average cost per sample and the corresponding variance and weak error. These parameters are calibrated using Bayesian estimation, taking particular notice of the deepest levels of the discretization hierarchy, where only few realizations are available to produce the estimates. The resulting CMLMC estimator exhibits a non-trivial splitting between bias and statistical contributions. We also show the asymptotic normality of the statistical error in the MLMC estimator and justify in this way our error estimate that allows prescribing both required accuracy and confidence in the final result. Our numerical results substantiate the above results and illustrate the corresponding computational savings in examples that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DEMNUni: the clustering of large-scale structures in the presence of massive neutrinos

We analyse the clustering features of Large Scale Structures (LSS) in the presence of massive neutrinos, employing a set of large-volume, high-resolution cosmological N-body simulations, where neutrinos are treated as separate collisionless particles. The volume of 8 h{sup -3} Gpc{sup 3}, combined with a resolution of about 8×10{sup 10}h{sup -1}M{sub ⊚} for the cold dark matter (CDM) component, represents a significant improvement over previous N-body simulations in massive neutrino cosmologies. In this work we focus, in the first place, on the analysis of nonlinear effects in CDM and neutrinos perturbations contributing to the total matter power spectrum. We show that most of the nonlinear evolution is generated exclusively by the CDM component. We therefore compare mildly nonlinear predictions from Eulerian Perturbation Theory (PT), and fully nonlinear prescriptions (HALOFIT) with the measurements obtained from the simulations. We find that accounting only for the nonlinear evolution of the CDM power spectrum allows to recover the total matter power spectrum with the same accuracy as the massless case. Indeed, we show that, the most recent version of the (HALOFIT) formula calibrated on ΛCDM simulations can be applied directly to the linear CDM power spectrum without requiring additional fitting parameters in the massive case. As a second step, we study the abundance and clustering properties of CDM halos, confirming that, in massive neutrino cosmologies, the proper definition of the halo bias should be made with respect to the cold rather than the total matter distribution, as recently shown in the literature. Here we extend these results to the redshift space, finding that, when accounting for massive neutrinos, an improper definition of the linear bias can lead to a systematic error of about 1-2 % in the determination of the linear growth rate from anisotropic clustering. This result is quite important if we consider that future spectroscopic galaxy surveys, as e.g. Euclid, are expected to measure the linear growth-rate with statistical errors less than about 3 % at z∼<1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Future of the Beam Energy Scan program at RHIC

The first exploratory phase of a very successful Beam Energy Scan Program at RHIC was completed in 2014 with Au+Au collisions at energies ranging from 7 to 39 GeV. Data sets taken earlier extended the upper limit of energy range to the √sNN of 200 GeV. This provided an initial look into the uncharted territory of the QCD phase diagram, which is considered to be the single most important graph of our field. The main results from BES phase I, although effected by large statistical errors (steeply increasing with decreasing energy), suggest that the highest potential for discovery of the QCD Critical Point lies bellow √sNN 20 GeV. Here, we discuss the plans and the preparation for phase II of the BES program, with an order of magnitude larger statistics, which is planned for 2018-2019. The BES II will focus on Au+Au collisions at √sNN from 20 to 7 GeV in collider mode, and from √sNN 7 to 3.5 GeV in the fixed target mode, which will be run concurrently with the collider mode operation.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Optimal Cosmic Microwave Background Lensing Reconstruction and Parameter Estimation with SPTpol Data

Here, we perform the first simultaneous Bayesian parameter inference and optimal reconstruction of the gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), using 100 deg 2 of polarization observations from the SPTpol receiver on the South Pole Telescope. These data reach noise levels as low as 5.8 μK arcmin in polarization, which are low enough that the typically used quadratic estimator (QE) technique for analyzing CMB lensing is significantly suboptimal. Conversely, the Bayesian procedure extracts all lensing information from the data and is optimal at any noise level. We infer the amplitude of the gravitational lensing potential to be ${A}_{\phi }=0.949\,\pm \,0.122$ using the Bayesian pipeline, consistent with our QE pipeline result, but with 17% smaller error bars. The Bayesian analysis also provides a simple way to account for systematic uncertainties, performing a similar job as frequentist "bias hardening" or linear bias correction, and reducing the systematic uncertainty on A Φ due to polarization calibration from almost half of the statistical error to effectively zero. Finally, we jointly constrain A Φ along with A L , the amplitude of lensing-like effects on the CMB power spectra, demonstrating that the Bayesian method can be used to easily infer parameters both from an optimal lensing reconstruction and from the delensed CMB, while exactly accounting for the correlation between the two. These results demonstrate the feasibility of the Bayesian approach on real data, and pave the way for future analysis of deep CMB polarization measurements with SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, and CMB-S4, where improvements relative to the QE can reach 1.5 times tighter constraints on A Φ and seven times lower effective lensing reconstruction noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Method for Retrieving Ground Flash Fraction from Satellite Lightning Imager Data

A general theory for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in N lightning observed by a satellite-based lightning imager is provided. An "exponential model" is applied as a physically reasonable constraint to describe the measured optical parameter distributions, and population statistics (i.e., mean, variance) are invoked to add additional constraints to the retrieval process. The retrieval itself is expressed in terms of a Bayesian inference, and the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution is obtained. The approach is tested by performing simulated retrievals, and retrieval error statistics are provided. The ability to retrieve ground flash fraction has important benefits to the atmospheric chemistry community. For example, using the method to partition the existing satellite global lightning climatology into separate ground and cloud flash climatologies will improve estimates of lightning nitrogen oxides (NOx) production; this in turn will improve both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate model predictions.

Koshak, William J.↗

The Relationship Between Two Methods for Estimating Uncertainties in Data Assimilation

This note examines the relationship between two apparently unrelated methods for estimating error statistics or uncertainties of relevance to data assimilation. The first method is due to (Desroziers et al., 2005, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 3385–3396; referred to as DBCP hereafter) and relies on residual statistics readily available from data assimilation applications. The second method, the three- cornered hat (3CH) developed by Gray and Allan (1974, IEEE 28th Annual Symp. Freq. Control, 243–246), only recently applied to atmospheric sciences, uses three data sets and can derive estimates of relevant error uncertainties as well. The usefulness of both methods lies in them not requiring knowledge of the true value of the quantities at play. DBCP derives its results by relying explicitly on the constraints as- sociated with the data assimilation minimization problem; 3CH is general and its estimates hold as long as errors in the three data sets of choice are uncorrelated. Establishing the relationship between the methods requires applying the 3CH approach to the same observation, background, and analysis data sets used by DBCP. In this case, the same assumptions of DBCP on residual errors allow for cancellation of error cross–covariance terms in 3CH such that two of its corners derive identical estimates for observation and background error covariances as those of DBCP. The error cross–covariance terms associated with the third corner are shown to add up to twice the analysis error covariance so that the 3CH estimate for the third corner recovers the negative of the analysis error covariance. Illustrations of these findings are provided by deriving uncertainties for radio occultation bending angles.

Ricardo Todling↗

Sensitivity of trajectory calculations to the temporal frequency of wind data

A mesoscale primitive equation model is used to create a 36-h simulation of the three-dimensional wind field of an intense maritime extratropical cyclone. The control experiment uses the simulated wind field every 15 min in a trajectory model to calculate back trajectories from various horizontal and vertical positions of interest relative to synoptic features of the storm. The latter trajectories are compared to trajectories that were calculated with the simulated wind data degraded in time to 30 min, 1 h, 3 h, 6h, and 12 h. Various error statistics reveal significant deterioration in trajectory accuracy between trajectories calculated with 1- and 3-h data frequencies. Trajectories calculated with 15-min, 30-min, and 1-h data frequencies yielded similar results, while trajectories calculated with data time frequencies 3 h and greater yielded results with unacceptably large errors.

Doty, Kevin G.↗

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

A covariance realism process for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft is detailed. The GPM spacecraft is in a low earth orbit, and performs collision avoidance maneuvers few times a year. Currently GPM is below the International Space Station (ISS). So, in addition to cataloged debris objects, GPM must contend with smallsat/cubesat objects that are deployed from the ISS. Both operational scenarios require complete knowledge of the expected GPM prediction errors as a function of time. In this study, we present a method for generating realistic predicted covariance that uses linear propagation of the covariance with the addition of process noise. Further analyses are presented for the process noise ''tuning'' that generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Different tuning strategies are considered and compared via a Goodness-of-Fit testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance. SpaceNav's realistic covariance generation approach takes into account the contribution of predicted maneuver errors in the increased propagation uncertainty. Corresponding maneuver uncertainty is injected into the state uncertainty, and is used within the collision avoidance process to determine the collision risk for close approach events that follow a maneuver. This is a critical step in the maneuver planning process that provides the satellite operator with an accurate quantification of the collision probability for planned maneuvers. Using this information, an informed decision can be made to proceed with a maneuver if the collision risk is acceptable. This approach is validated by Monte-Carlo simulations and results are presented.

spacecraft uncertainty propagation↗

A 5 per cent measurement of the Hubble–Lemaître constant from Type II supernovae

ABSTRACT The most stringent local measurement of the Hubble–Lemaître constant from Cepheid-calibrated Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) differs from the value inferred via the cosmic microwave background radiation (Planck+ΛCDM) by ∼5σ. This so-called Hubble tension has been confirmed by other independent methods, and thus does not appear to be a possible consequence of systematic errors. Here, we continue upon our prior work of using Type II supernovae to provide another, largely independent method to measure the Hubble–Lemaître constant. From 13 SNe II with geometric, Cepheid, or tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) host-galaxy distance measurements, we derive H$_0= 75.4^{+3.8}_{-3.7}$ km s−1 Mpc−1 (statistical errors only), consistent with the local measurement but in disagreement by ∼2.0σ with the Planck+ΛCDM value. Using only Cepheids (N = 7), we find H$_0 = 77.6^{+5.2}_{-4.8}$ km s−1 Mpc−1, while using only TRGB (N = 5), we derive H$_0 = 73.1^{+5.7}_{-5.3}$ km s−1 Mpc−1. Via 13 variants of our data set, we derive a systematic uncertainty estimate of 1.5 km s−1 Mpc−1. The median value derived from these variants differs by just 0.3 km s−1 Mpc−1 from that produced by our fiducial model. Because we only replace SNe Ia with SNe II – and we do not find statistically significant difference between the Cepheid and TRGB H0 measurements – our work reveals no indication that SNe Ia or Cepheids could be the sources of the ‘H0 tension.’ We caution, however, that our conclusions rest upon a modest calibrator sample; as this sample grows in the future, our results should be verified.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using the optimal combined index weight ratio to improve the probability of anomaly detection in big area additive manufacturing

Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) of composites requires significant time, energy, and material, so it is critical to reduce production inefficiencies to make functional parts without multiple iterations. Statistical process control coupled with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a powerful technique that provides a quick, computationally inexpensive, and intuitive way for operators to detect defects that form in a manufacturing process without massive datasets. Recently, a combined index that is a weighted sum of the Hotelling's T 2 and squared residual error statistics has been proposed that can be monitored in one chart, improving interpretation accuracy and simplicity. However, the literature does not offer a formal method to optimise the weights. Here, we introduce two new approaches to the traditional weight selection approach using simulated and BAAM image data. Approach 1 uses a theoretically motivated optimum inspired by probabilistic principal component analysis. Approach 2 systematically varies the ratio of the weights to find the optimum. We show that approach 1 delivers optimal anomaly detection performance in select cases while approach 2 fares better in practice. Surprisingly, we also show that choosing a more complex PCA model has a minimal negative impact on anomaly detection performance compared to a more simplistic model.

3-dimensional printing↗

Recent Measurement of Flavor Asymmetry of Antiquarks in the Proton by Drell–Yan Experiment SeaQuest at Fermilab

A measurement of the flavor asymmetry of the antiquarks ($\bar{d}$ and $\bar{u}$) in the proton is described in this thesis. The proton consists of three valence quarks, sea quarks, and gluons. Antiquarks in the proton are sea quarks. They are generated from the gluon splitting: g → q + $\bar{q}$. According to QCD (Quantum Chromodynamics), the gluon splitting is independent of quark flavor. It suggests that the amounts of $\bar{d}$ and $\bar{u}$ should be the same in the proton. However, the NMC experiment at CERN found that the amount of $\bar{d}$ is larger than that of $\bar{u}$ in the proton using the deep inelastic scattering in 1991. This result is obtained for $\bar{d}$ and $\bar{u}$ integrated over Bjorken x. Bjorken x is the fraction of the momentum of the parton to that of the proton. The NA51 experiment (x ~ 0.2) at CERN and E866/NuSea experiment (0.015 < x < 0.35) at Fermilab measured the flavor asymmetry of the antiquarks ($\bar{d}$/$\bar{u}$) in the proton as a function of x using Drell–Yan process. The experiments reported that the flavor symmetry is broken over all measured x values. Understanding the flavor asymmetry of the antiquarks in the proton is a challenge of the QCD. The theo- retical investigation from the first principle of QCD such as lattice QCD calculation is important. In addition, the QCD effective models and hadron models such as the meson cloud model can also be tested with the flavor asymmetry of antiquarks. From the experimental side, it is important to measure with higher accuracy and in a wider x range. The SeaQuest (E906) experiment measures $\bar{d}$/$\bar{u}$ at large x (0.15 < x < 0.45) accurately to understand its behavior. The SeaQuest experiment is a Drell–Yan experiment at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab). In the Drell–Yan process of proton-proton reaction, an antiquark in a proton and a quark in another proton annihilate and create a virtual photon, which then decays into a muon pair (q$\bar{q}$ → γ* → µ + µ - ). The SeaQuest experiment uses a 120 GeV proton beam extracted from Fermilab’s Main Injector. The proton beam interacts with hydrogen and deuterium targets. The SeaQuest spectrometer detects the muon pairs from the Drell–Yan process. The $\bar{d}$/$\bar{u}$ ratio at 0.1 < x < 0.58 is extracted from the number of detected Drell–Yan muon pairs. After the detector construction, commissioning run and detector upgrade, the SeaQuest experiment started the physics data acquisition from 2013. We finished so far three periods of physics data acquisition. The fourth period is in progress. The detector construction, detector performance evaluation, data taking and data analysis for the flavor asymmetry of the antiquarks $\bar{d}$/$\bar{u}$ in the proton are my contribution to SeaQuest. The cross section ratio of Drell–Yan process in p- p and p-d reactions is obtained from dimuon yields. In the experiment with high beam intensity, it is important to control the tracking efficiency of charged particles through the magnetic spectrometer. The tracking efficiency depends on the chamber occupancy, and the appropriate method for the correction is important. The chamber occupancy is the number of hits in drift chambers. A new method of the correction for the tracking efficiency is developed based on the occupancy, and applied to the data. This method reflects the real response of the drift chambers. Therefore, the systematic error is well controlled by this method. The flavor asymmetry of antiquarks is obtained at 0.1 < x < 0.58. At 0.1 < x < 0.45, the result is $\bar{d}$/$\bar{u}$ > 1. The result at 0.1 < x < 0.24 agrees with the E866 result. The result at x > 0.24, however, disagrees with the E866 result. The result at 0.45 < x < 0 the statistical errors. u¯ results extracted from experiments are used to investigate the validity of the theoretical models. The present experimental result provides the data points in wide x region. It is useful for understanding the proton structure in the light of QCD and effective hadron models. The present result has a practical application as well. Antiquark distributions are important as inputs to simulations of hadron reactions such as W± production in various experiments. The new knowledge on antiquark distributions helps to improve the precision of the simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗