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Energy Sector Position, Navigation, and Time Cybersecurity Profile

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has developed this positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) profile for the Energy Sector at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy. The Department of Energy is the sector-specific agency for the Energy Sector and is responsible for providing guidance in the form of this PNT Profile, per Executive Order 13905, Strengthening National Resilience Through Responsible Use of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing Services (Executive Office of the President 2020) issued February 18, 2020. Executive Order 13905 directed the National Institute of Standards & Technology to develop a PNT Profile that is broadly applicable to all sectors and to serve as a foundation for sector-neutral guidance, NISTIR 8323 Foundational PNT Profile: Applying the Cybersecurity Framework for the Responsible Use of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) Services. This document builds on NISTIR 8323 to identify and serve as the required Energy Sector specific guidance. For purposes of this PNT Profile, Energy Sector precise time is 0.5 µs (microseconds) to 1 µs accuracy. Currently, the electricity subsector has systems that use this level of precision time, but the oil and natural gas subsector currently does not. While the electricity subsector uses precision timing, it does not use positioning and/or navigation at this level of accuracy. For this reason, this PNT Profile will focus on only precise time for the electricity subsector.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mexico's Geothermal Market Assessment Report

This report is intended to help U.S. companies in the geothermal sector understand potential business opportunities created by recent changes in the Mexican energy market and regulatory environment. can also provide a variety of technology products and services for export into the Mexican market. This report will help U.S. companies identify the many public and private sector stakeholders in the United States and Mexico, which can help U.S. companies navigate the new regulatory and permitting environment, build new partnerships, and identify vehicles for financial assistance and risk mitigation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, is developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13% - 22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement.

Building energy codes↗

Characterization factors and other air quality impact metrics: Case study for PM 2.5 -emitting area sources from biofuel feedstock supply

In this paper, we develop a framework and metrics for estimating the impact of emission sources on regulatory compliance and human health for applications in air quality planning and life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). Our framework is based on a pollutant's characterization factor (CF) and three new metrics: Available Regulatory Capacity for Incremental Emissions (ARCIE), Source CF Ratio, and Activity Health Impact (AHI) Ratio. ARCIE can be used to assess whether a receptor location has capacity to accommodate additional source emissions while complying with regulatory limits. We present CF as a midpoint indicator of health impacts per unit mass of emitted pollutant. Source CF Ratio enables comparison of potential new-source locations based on human health impacts. The AHI Ratio estimates the health impacts of a pollutant in relation to the utilization of the source for each unit of product or service. These metrics can be applied to any pollutant, energy source sector (e.g., agriculture, electricity), source type (point, line, area), and spatial modeling domain (nation, state, city, region). We demonstrate these metrics through a case study of fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) emissions from U.S. corn stover harvesting and local processing at various scales, representing steps in the biofuel production process. We model PM 2.5 formation in the atmosphere using a novel reduced-complexity chemical transport model called the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). Through this case study, we present the first area-source PM 2.5 CFs that address the recommendations of several LCIA studies to establish spatially explicit CFs specific to an energy source sector or type. Overall, the framework developed in this work provides multiple new ways to consider the potential impacts of air emissions through spatially differentiated metrics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information

Abstract The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Magnify: A Final Technical Report of the American Energy and Manufacturing Competitiveness Partnership

The energy landscape has undergone profound transformation, with dramatic shifts having an impact on U.S. productivity, global investment, manufacturing operations, and job creation. The sense of urgency for a tighter linkage between clean technologies, energy and advanced manufacturing has only grown. Prior to 2009, the tone of the nation’s energy conversation was centered on how to deal with long-standing energy security challenges and scarcity. Today, the tone is focused on seizing emerging energy growth opportunities to transform America’s industrial base and job creation outlook—centering on energy abundance and strength. In this context, the Council on Competitiveness and the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (EERE) teamed in the American Energy & Manufacturing Competitiveness (AEMC) Partnership to tackle two major goals via a multi-year partnership. The AEMC Partnership identified means to: • Increase U.S. competitiveness in the production of clean energy products • Increase U.S. manufacturing competitiveness across the board by increasing energy productivity The AEMC Partnership has engaged hundreds of leaders from industry, academia, labor and government in a series of 9 regional, progressive dialogues; original research; and 4 national summits. The AEMC dialogues and summits spanned the United States—taking place in our nation’s greatest manufacturing, research, technology and innovation hotspots. The goals of the AEMC Partnership have been straightforward: • State and define key barriers, challenges, and problems in U.S. competitiveness in manufacturing of clean energy products, energy efficiency products, and advanced manufacturing products. • Dive deeply into these problems and generate policies, solutions, concepts and models where the U.S. public and private sectors can work together to solve these problems. • Catalyze policy solutions—including models for public-private partnership (PPP) pilots—to increase competitive manufacturing of clean energy and energy efficiency products in the USA. • Elevate and increase awareness of the importance and benefits of competitive clean energy manufacturing. • Understand how energy game-changers, like breakthrough technologies, impact U.S. clean energy and energy efficient manufacturing. The Council on Competitiveness worked with its stakeholder network to generate potential PPP concepts and proposals to advance the goals of the AEMC Partnership. Magnify outlines 2 PPP concepts—honed by dialogues, conversations, interviews and research—that could be carried out by EERE and/or the Council to increase the competitive production of clean energy products, energy efficient products, and advanced manufacturing in the USA. Magnify’s 2 PPP concepts aim to bridge very specific gaps in the nation’s innovation ecosystem: • Clean Energy Materials Accelerator: This PPP concept focuses on reducing the risks associated with deploying newly developed materials in commercial products and processes by creating a platform to identify and address common challenges; increasing access to existing materials qualification and characterization tools; and creating standards for advanced materials with leaders in industry, academic, government, and other organizations. Why accelerate materials production? As the AEMC Partnership Dialogue and supporting research from the public and private sectors have documented, countries that lead in making next-generation materials will gain significant competitive advantage by unleashing a new wave of manufacturing innovation. • Manufacturing and Energy Technology Accelerator: This PPP concept is a new, physical and virtual collaborative resource platform designed to connect the nation’s world-class innovation institutions—SMEs, large multinational companies, universities, national laboratories, etc.—to facilitate the transition of cutting-edge clean energy technologies into products, processes, or services that are manufactured in the United States. Why should public and private sector leaders in innovation partner to co-create a scale-up platform? The United States is already a mecca for the world’s greatest minds in science and technology—drawn to our shores by world-class universities and opportunities to work with global leaders in innovation. Unfortunately, when it comes time to bring their ideas to market, technologists and entrepreneurs often choose, or are forced, to locate manufacturing overseas. The United States must regain its position in the world as a national scale-up platform for next-generation technologies. A thorough explanation of these PPP concepts and the rationale behind these recommendations is provided in Part 3 of Magnify. Magnify is an important step on the critical journey to define barriers, challenges and problems in the manufacturing of clean energy products and energy efficient products—and further honing concepts for scalable, public-private partnerships—to increase the competitive manufacturing of clean energy and energy efficient products, and the energy productivity throughout the U.S. manufactur¬ing sector. The rest of the world is waking up to the opportunities associated with a strategic focus on manufacturing and energy competitiveness. Global competition is on the rise, and the stakes are high for the United States to act now, to act decisively, and to leverage inherent strengths to ensure a more prosperous, competitive future for decades to come.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Decarbonized Electric Grid: Defining, Measuring, and Integrating Decarbonization into Electricity Sector Policy and Planning

Traditionally, electric grid planning seeks to maintain safe, reliable, efficient, and affordable service for current and future customers. As policies, expectations of the energy system, and the threat landscape evolve, additional objectives for power system planners are emerging, including decarbonization, resilience, and equity. Renewable and clean energy goals, especially in the context of deep decarbonization strategies, are changing the mix of resources on the electric grid and prompting new considerations for grid architecture. The increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the last two decades, coupled with cybersecurity concerns, have elevated resilience as a key system need. More recently, there has been greater focus on equity and energy justice in grid planning to ensure that disadvantaged communities are not adversely affected by grid modernization and have equal access to its benefits. In response, new thinking around multi-objective decision planning is exploring improvements in grid planning processes to better integrate approaches to meet decarbonization, resilience, and equity objectives. To provide a foundation for this work, a series of white papers was produced to summarize these emerging objectives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Resilient Electric Grid: Defining, Measuring, and Integrating Resilience into Electricity Sector Policy and Planning

Traditionally, electric grid planning seeks to maintain safe, reliable, efficient, and affordable service for current and future customers. As policies, expectations of the energy system, and the threat landscape evolve, additional objectives for power system planners are emerging, including decarbonization, resilience, and equity. Renewable and clean energy goals, especially in the context of deep decarbonization strategies, are changing the mix of resources on the electric grid and prompting new considerations for grid architecture. The increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the last two decades, coupled with cybersecurity concerns, have elevated resilience as a key system need. More recently, there has been greater focus on equity and energy justice in grid planning to ensure that disadvantaged communities are not adversely affected by grid modernization and have equal access to its benefits. In response, new thinking around multi-objective decision planning is exploring improvements in grid planning processes to better integrate approaches to meet decarbonization, resilience, and equity objectives. To provide a foundation for this work, a series of white papers was produced to summarize these emerging objectives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Equitable Electric Grid: Defining, Measuring, and Integrating Equity into Electricity Sector Policy and Planning

Traditionally, electric grid planning seeks to maintain safe, reliable, efficient, and affordable service for current and future customers. As policies, expectations of the energy system, and the threat landscape evolve, additional objectives for power system planners are emerging, including decarbonization, resilience, and equity. Renewable and clean energy goals, especially in the context of deep decarbonization strategies, are changing the mix of resources on the electric grid and prompting new considerations for grid architecture. The increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the last two decades, coupled with cybersecurity concerns, have elevated resilience as a key system need. More recently, there has been greater focus on equity and energy justice in grid planning to ensure that disadvantaged communities are not adversely affected by grid modernization and have equal access to its benefits. In response, new thinking around multi-objective decision planning is exploring improvements in grid planning processes to better integrate approaches to meet decarbonization, resilience, and equity objectives. To provide a foundation for this work, a series of white papers was produced to summarize these emerging objectives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As lunar missions increase in complexity inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient capability of the Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system to support their scientific objectives. In addition, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program initiates the proliferation of public and private exploration partnerships using small satellites from commercial and private organizations, expanding traditionally confined low Earth orbit to be used for missions beyond geosynchronous orbit (Zucherman et al., 2022). Therefore, the Lunar PNT system is also required to provide navigation services compatible with the smaller platforms being sent by the public and private sectors, like CubeSats. However, traditional approaches to deep space missions’ navigation based on ground radio facilities have difficulties in providing sufficient support for the increasing number of users and communication at a distance from the Earth (Kaplev et al., 2022). In particular, the existing Lunar navigation technologies such as weak signal global positioning system (GPS) and deep space network (DSN) are not able to ensure operations of the upcoming small-scale Lunar missions due to their limitations in localization performance as well as capacity aspects. Another way to provide Lunar PNT service is to create a dedicated Lunar global navigation satellite system (GNSS) constellation, like GNSS systems on Earth. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and JAXA are now developing the lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS). In their systems, satellites will be deployed in moon orbits to provide the communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (CPNT) service at the lunar south pole region where the Artemis base camp will be expected (Murata et al., 2022). Meanwhile, common challenges considered in lunar PNT research arise from poor geometry of the terrestrial GNSS satellites when seen from the lunar user, highly perturbed lunar orbits, and limitations in power, size, and cost of the equipment on lunar satellites (Iiyama et al., 2023). It is also not clear if there will be enough Lunar users to support the cost and resources this would require as the Low-cost surface missions may not be able to support the large power, mass, and weight requirements that these navigation solutions entail (Niemoeller et al., 2022). As an alternative, existing Lunar science and exploration assets could be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions (Hagenau et al., 2021). Introducing the non-dedicated and ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation gives a way to provide PNT services on-demand. The non-dedicated swarm assets of Lunar constellations are designed to localize themselves with minimal interaction with Earth by adding cooperative autonomous localization to lunar missions, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. An autonomous localization of Lunar constellations is based on the concept of the decentralized PNT system with a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) approach to state estimation for minimal onboard operating costs. In the distributed data processing algorithm, computation is broken down and assigned to each satellite, resulting in a considerably decreased computational amount while maintaining the accuracy of the orbit ephemeris and clock offsets as the result of centralized data processing (Wen et al., 2019). The DEKF requires spacecraft to perform two-way ranging operations with each other to communicate simultaneously, leveraging neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements such as pseudoranges to, and relative velocities between, visible satellites as sensor values (Frank et al., 2021). The Lunar autonomous PNT simulation (LAPS) demonstrated the feasibility of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar small-sat constellations based on the DEKF in Hagenau et al. (2021) and evaluated the matching algorithm proposed by Frank et al. (2021) in scheduling position estimation updates. In previous papers, all assets and measurements are assumed to be always available without consideration of the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure. This study presents localization performance with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets and users to demonstrate the robustness of the decentralized Lunar PNT service in more realistic scenarios. Main issues arising from communication failure include spacecraft permanent or transient loss, antenna failures, message delays, etc. We tested four possible reasons for network degradation for 7 days in 21 satellites frozen with an altitude of 5500 km, evenly spaced around 3 circular, 40 inclination orbital planes where each spacecraft has two directional antennas. As anchor nodes with an independent estimate of their position are required in the DEKF approach, two ground nodes in each pole and one node in the gateway were implemented in the simulation. First, the most probable failure scenario involves the loss of a single spacecraft due to solar interference and technical malfunctions of the assets. Losing the availability of a single spacecraft means losing the two-way ISL measurement of the asset in the DEKF update. In order to provide the best possible quality of PNT service with limited time and resources, the distributed Lunar constellations must schedule the communication activities. The scheduler leverages mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the coordination and scheduling of the desired “as-needed” localization service (Niemoeller et al., 2022). We assume the scheduler has completely excluded the spacecraft information before the DEKF update in the failure scenario. When a random spacecraft has been turned off at a specific time, the robustness of the autonomous Lunar PNT system is evaluated. The simulation results give an 11.5% degradation in median position accuracy compared to the idealized performance excluding the asset loss. Second, a large number of assets may vanish due to major hardware problems or meteor strikes around the moon. A multiple spacecraft loss can degrade the localization performance very fast by losing the communication ability to do cross-plane measurements and in-plane measurements in a 3-plane constellation. When the matching-based scheduler is aware of ISL availability, we investigate a large number of in-plane and cross-plane asset vanishments both in close proximity and equally spaced throughout the orbital plane. According to the simulations, the loss of in-plane measurements gives 40.2% degradation while cross-plane measurements degrade 50.5% of asset localization performance among available assets. Therefore, it is concluded that cross-plane measurements are more important in improving the position estimation accuracy. Third, spacecraft failure information can be lost due to the internal message delay, resulting in the DEKF update scheduler to solve the matching problem with unavailable assets. The DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations where a global broadcast network and a 2-way ISL network setup take 6 minutes in total (Frank et al., 2021). Once the broadcast network successfully transmits and receives information, a random spacecraft may lose its availability right before solving the matching problem. This means the matching solution is no longer optimal, resulting in degradation in the localization performance. A numerical assessment shows the matching-based scheduler with knowing failure holds 11.5% of position accuracy degradation, whereas the scheduler without knowing failure gives 34% degraded localization performance without asset loss. Fourth, a transient loss of a single or multiple spacecraft may occur due to their antenna outages. After losing the two-way ISL availability for a few DEKF update cycles, the availability of spacecraft can easily be recovered as their states have been independently updated using measurements from anchor nodes. It is likely that the longer failure will result in worse localization performance. We have tested the transient failure of a random single asset for 30 min in the simulation, which is losing 3 update cycles in the DEKF system. From the simulation results, the position accuracy has been degraded to 4.84% which is better than the degraded localization performance of 11.5% from the permanent loss scenario among available assets. In conclusion, the autonomous Lunar PNT system based on the DEKF approach shows the ability to maintain resilience and robustness in the possible communication failure scenarios, ensuring that localization accuracy is preserved across various network degradation and outages. Future studies on investigating user localization performance near the South Pole and the broadcast network system will be continued in the following months.

Yeji Kim↗

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change. Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts - both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growing electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Study of Emerging Ancillary Service Markets in Non-Restricted Regions of the Western Power Grid (CRADA Final Report)

Rising penetrations of renewable energy generation in the Western United States pose new requirements for ancillary services, which are the services required, in addition to energy service, in order to maintain the system reliability. This project combines the research capabilities of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the University of Colorado at Boulder (CU-Boulder) to provide more accurate information to market participants and regulators about the present and future size and composition of ancillary service markets in the non-restructured regions of the West. This information would provide market participants and state and federal regulators with a more transparent view of future ancillary service markets, and allow for more efficient system planning in both the private and public sectors of the electricity market.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Transportation and electricity systems integration via electric vehicle charging-as-a-service: A review of techno-economic and societal benefits

Here, in support of global decarbonization efforts, the adoption of electric vehicles is proceeding rapidly across transportation sectors, population groups, and regions. However, access to electric vehicle charging infrastructure remains sparse and inequitable, and technical, economic, and procedural challenges have encumbered its expansion. Charging-as-a-service, which can mitigate cost and effort risks of charging equipment ownership, adds a means of meeting many of these challenges. As charging-as-a-service has not been analyzed or addressed in the scholarly literature, we synthesize media, marketing, and analogous scholarly publications to categorize and describe the functions asserted by existing charging-as-a-service vendors. We demonstrate and quantify the benefits of many of these functions via four example business cases, sited at a detached residence, a multi-unit dwelling, a consumer-facing business, and a commercial fleet depot. Outcomes show that savings and revenues realized via charging-as-a-service can reduce charging costs, beneficially shape grid loads, and make charging installation economical where it otherwise would not be. Discussion highlights the need to deploy charging-as-a-service in cooperation with initiatives promoting societal benefits, including charging access equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Structural dynamics of the renewable energy economy: A longitudinal input-output insights for a resilient transition

As countries accelerate their energy transitions, understanding how renewable energy (RE) systems structurally integrate into national economies is essential. This study presents a longitudinal economic input-output (EIO) analysis of the renewable energy sector in South Korea from 2016 to 2022. We develop a novel EIO-based framework that disaggregates the RE sector both by energy source (thermal, hydro, nuclear and renewable) and by industrial function (manufacturing, generation, and services), allowing for a detailed assessment of production dynamics, value-added creation, and import dependency. By quantifying backward and forward linkages and induced economic effects, the analysis reveals persistent structural vulnerabilities in renewable manufacturing and increasing sectoral interdependencies. Results reveal that while the renewable energy sector's production and value-added shares have increased, critical segments remain highly import-dependent, particularly in equipment manufacturing. The analysis highlights systemic gaps in domestic supply chain resilience and offers sector-specific insights for reducing vulnerability and enhancing energy security. Although applied to South Korea as a case study, the proposed framework is designed to be transferable to other national contexts where renewable energy planning requires economic structural insights. The findings offer policy-relevant guidance for enhancing domestic energy resilience and aligning industrial strategy with long-term decarbonization goals.

Economic linkage↗

Evaluation of private sector roles in space resource development

An integrated engineering and financial modeling approach has been developed and used to evaluate the potential for private sector investment in space resource development, and to assess possible roles of the public sector in fostering private interest. This paper presents the modeling approach and its results for a transportation service using propellant extracted from lunar regolith.

space↗

Not planning a sustainable transport system

The overall objective of the Swedish transport policy is to ensure the economically efficient and sustainable provision of transport services for people and business throughout the country. More specifically, the transport sector shall, among other things, contribute to the achievement of environmental quality objectives in which the development of the transport system plays an important role in the achievement of the objectives. The aim of this study is to analyse if current transport planning supports this policy. This is done by analysing two recent cases: the National Infrastructure Plan 2010–2021, and the planning of Bypass Stockholm, a major road investment. Our results show that the plans are in conflict with several of the environmental quality objectives. Another interesting aspect of the planning processes is that the long-term climate goals are not included in the planning processes, neither as a clear goal nor as factor that will influence future transport systems. In this way, the long-term sustainability aspects are not present in the planning. We conclude that the two cases do not contribute to a sustainable transport system. Thus, several changes must be made in the processes, including putting up clear targets for emissions. Also, the methodology for the environmental assessments needs to be further developed and discussed. - Highlights: • Two cases are studied to analyse if current planning supports a sustainable transport system. • Results show that the plans are in conflict with several of the environmental quality objectives. • Long-term climate goals are not included in the planning processes. • Current practices do not contribute to a sustainable planning processes. • Methodology and process for environmental assessments must be further developed and discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Landfill reduction experience in The Netherlands

Highlights: • ‘Zero waste’ initiatives never consider risks, side effects or experience of achieved low levels of landfill. • This paper provides insight into what works and what not. • Where strong gradients in regulations and tax occur between countries, waste will find its way to landfills across borders. • Strong landfill reduction can create a fierce competition over the remaining waste to be landfilled resulting in losses. • At some point a public organisation should take responsibility for the operation of a ‘safety net’ in waste management. - Abstract: Modern waste legislation aims at resource efficiency and landfill reduction. This paper analyses more than 20 years of landfill reduction in the Netherlands. The combination of landfill regulations, landfill tax and landfill bans resulted in the desired landfill reduction, but also had negative effects. A fierce competition developed over the remaining waste to be landfilled. In 2013 the Dutch landfill industry generated €40 million of annual revenue, had €58 million annual costs and therefore incurred an annual loss of €18 million. It is not an attractive option to prematurely end business. There is a risk that Dutch landfill operators will not be able to fulfil the financial obligations for closure and aftercare. Contrary to the polluter pays principle the burden may end up with society. EU regulations prohibiting export of waste for disposal are in place. Strong differentials in landfill tax rate between nations have nevertheless resulted in transboundary shipment of waste and in non-compliance with the self-sufficiency and proximity principles. During the transformation from a disposal society to a recycling society, it is important to carefully plan required capacity and to guide the reorganisation of the landfill sector. At some point, it is no longer profitable to provide landfill services. It may be necessary for public organisations or the state to take responsibility for the continued operation of a ‘safety net’ in waste management. Regulations have created a financial incentive to pass on the burden of monitoring and controlling the impact of waste to future generations. To prevent this, it is necessary to revise regulations on aftercare and create incentives to actively stabilise landfills.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Mitigate: An Adaptive Network Data Anonymization Tool Using Condensation-Based Differential Privacy

Modern network devices collect a large amount of data that can be analyzed to identify bottlenecks, anomalies, cyber-attacks, etc. Therefore, there is often a need to analyze such collections of network data quite often by an external expert or by the research community. However, these collections of data contain sensitive, proprietary information. In order for the network data to be shared, it must first be anonymized. The overall objective of this project is to develop an innovative privacy management tool to anonymize network data and achieve sufficient privacy, acceptable data utility, and efficient data analysis at the same time. No existing anonymization methods can achieve all of these at the same time. The core of this technology is a differential private clustering algorithm that provides strong privacy protection, preserves data properties important for subsequent analysis, and allows the party receiving the anonymized data to conduct analysis directly on anonymized data without the need of decryption or any extra processing. The research carried out was to design, implement and verify a solution to this problem by completing the following tasks: 1) developing the core technology; 2) developing a context based method that automatically recommends fields that must be anonymized; 3) conducted experiments showing superior results using our approach compared to existing tools, and 4) developed an intuitive but basic user interface. The research that was conducted generated novel algorithmic techniques that utilize state-of-the-art methods such as condensation, differential privacy preservation, clustering, automated tuning based on contextual awareness, and recommendation techniques to specify columns to users for anonymization leading to optimal privacy that allows research analysis on the dataset. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of these novel algorithmic techniques by performing analysis on original non-anonymized datasets, then conducting analysis on the same yet anonymized datasets and comparing the results of the analyses. Overall, the anonymized analysis results were within 1% of the original results, verifying that the generated technology not only guarantees a high level of privacy but also enables research analysis as if it were conducted on the original dataset. Potential applications of this technology include anonymization of any type of structured network datasets that contain sensitive identifiers, such as IP addresses, that can be used in multiple applications. For example, to create an AI or machine learning model for cyber security, e.g., to detect attacks, or for performance analysis, e.g., identify bottlenecks or predict performance. In addition, a market analysis that was conducted for potential applications of this technology identified a broader range of applications of our anonymization technology beyond the network sector that includes healthcare, banking, insurance, securities, finance (FISB), data brokering, cloud services, ad sales, and government.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗