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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Prototype Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator (SWIPE): Towards Global Coastal and Inland Water Quality and Algal Biodiversity Monitoring

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will provide updates on NASA’s prototype open-source aquatic modeling platform, Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator (SWIPE), which is a comprehensive, multi-faceted modeling platform for both forward and inverse modeling of diverse aquatic ecosystems from the benthos to top-of-atmosphere (TOA). SWIPE provides a cohesive application which leverages recent advancements in particle modeling, Big Data analytics, and machine learning to develop a high-fidelity synthetic training ground for sensitivity studies and algorithm development for multispectral or upcoming hyperspectral missions. Some of the prominent features of SWIPE to be discussed include: 1. Advanced hyperspectral modeling of globally diverse algal and non-algal particles using a novel two-layer coated sphere scattering model and radiative transfer modeling, 2. Massive, highly detailed synthetic spectral libraries of Analysis-Ready-Data (ARD) which include spectral libraries of particle microphysics, water biogeophysical and optical properties, as well as surface and TOA reflectances at 1 nm resolution, 3. An ensemble of pre-built analytic, machine learning, and deep learning inversion algorithms for various water quality and biodiversity related retrieval parameters and uncertainty quantification, 4. Sensor-agnostic water quality inversion at wide ranging spatial and spectral resolutions including a codebase for seamless application in the Google Earth Engine and NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) for planetary scale analysis. SWIPE will be a fully open-source platform based in python with comprehensive documentation, tutorials, and options for distributed computing on high performance computing clusters or on single, local machines. Further, we will discuss how we envision SWIPE contributing towards a global analysis of coastal and inland water quality dynamics.

top-of-atmosphere (TOA)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗
NASA NTRS2009

Hubble Space Telescope Crew Rescue Analysis

In the aftermath of the 2003 Columbia accident NASA removed the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Servicing Mission 4 (SM4) from the Space Shuttle manifest. Reasons cited included concerns that the risk of flying the mission would be too high. There was at the time no viable technique to repair the orbiter s thermal protection system if it were to be damaged by debris during ascent. Furthermore in the event of damage, since the mission was not to the International Space Station, there was no safe haven for the crew to wait for an extended period of time for a rescue. The HST servicing mission was reconsidered because of improvements in the ascent debris environment, the development of techniques for the astronauts to perform on orbit repairs to damage thermal protection, and the development of a strategy to provide a crew rescue capability. However, leading up to the launch of servicing mission, the HST crew rescue capability was a recurring topic. For HST there was a limited amount of time available to perform a crew rescue because of the limited consumables available on the Orbiter. The success of crew rescue depends upon several factors including when a problem is identified, when and to what extent power down procedures are begun, and where the rescue vehicle is in its ground processing cycle. Severe power downs maximize crew rescue success but would eliminate the option for the orbiter servicing the HST to attempt a landing. Therefore, crew rescue success needed to be weighed against preserving the ability of the orbiter to have landing option in case there was a problem with the rescue vehicle. This paper focuses on quantification of the HST mission loss of crew rescue capability using Shuttle historical data and various power down capabilities. That work supported NASA s decision to proceed with the HST service mission, which was successfully completed on May 24th 2009.

Hamlin, Teri L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Testing of an Annular Linear Induction Pump for the Fission Surface Power Technology Demonstration Unit

Results of performance testing of an annular linear induction pump that has been designed for integration into a fission surface power technology demonstration unit are presented. The pump electromagnetically pushes liquid metal (NaK) through a specially-designed apparatus that permits quantification of pump performance over a range of operating conditions. Testing was conducted for frequencies of 40, 55, and 70 Hz, liquid metal temperatures of 125, 325, and 525 C, and input voltages from 30 to 120 V. Pump performance spanned a range of flow rates from roughly 0.3 to 3.1 L/s (4.8 to 49 gpm), and pressure heads of <1 to 104 kPa (<0.15 to 15 psi). The maximum efficiency measured during testing was 5.4%. At the technology demonstration unit operating temperature of 525 C the pump operated over a narrower envelope, with flow rates from 0.3 to 2.75 L/s (4.8 to 43.6 gpm), developed pressure heads from <1 to 55 kPa (<0.15 to 8 psi), and a maximum efficiency of 3.5%. The pump was supplied with three-phase power at 40 and 55 Hz using a variable-frequency motor drive, while power at 55 and 70 Hz was supplied using a variable-frequency power supply. Measured performance of the pump at 55 Hz using either supply exhibited good quantitative agreement. For a given temperature, the peak in efficiency occurred at different flow rates as the frequency was changed, but the maximum value of efficiency was relative insensitive within 0.3% over the frequency range tested, including a scan from 45 to 78 Hz. The objectives of the FSP technology project are as follows:5 • Develop FSP concepts that meet expected surface power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options. • Establish a nonnuclear hardware-based technical foundation for FSP design concepts to reduce overall development risk. • Reduce the cost uncertainties for FSP and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates. • Generate the key nonnuclear products to allow Agency decision makers to consider FSP as a viable option for potential future flight development. The pump must be compatible with the liquid NaK coolant and have adequate performance to enable a viable flight system. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was tasked with the design and fabrication of an ALIP suitable for the FSP reference mission. Under the program, a quarter-scale FSP technology demonstration is under construction to test the end-to-end conversion of simulated nuclear thermal power to usable electrical power intended to raise the entire FSP system to Technology Readiness Level 6. An ALIP for this TDU was fabricated under the direction of the INL and shipped to NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for testing at representative operating conditions. This pump was designed to meet the requirements of the TDU experiment. The ALIP test circuit (ATC) at MSFC, previously used to conduct performance evaluation on another ALIP6 was used to test the present TDU pump for the FSP Technology Development program.

Polzin, K. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dose, LET, time and strain dependence of radiation-induced 53BP1 foci in 15 mouse strains ex vivo and associations to in vivo radiation susceptibility

We present a comparative analysis on the repair of radiation-induced DNA damage ex vivo in 15 strains of mice, including 5 inbred reference strains and 10 collaborative-cross strains, of both sexes. Non-immortalized primary skin fibroblasts derived from 76 mice were subjected to both low- and high-LET radiation (0.1, 1 and 4 Gy of X rays; 1.1 and 3 particles/100μm2 of 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe). Automated image quantification of 53BP1 radiation-induced foci (RIF) during the first 4-48 h post-irradiation was performed as a function of dose and LET. Similarly to what we had previously reported for immortalized human cell lines [1], we observed a saturation of RIF number with dose at 4h post-irradiation, with more RIF/Gy for lower LET (X rays and 40Ar) compared to 56Fe. However at later time points (24h and above), the trend was inverted with more RIF/Gy for higher LET. Our data suggest that multiple DSBs cluster into RIF: as the linear density of DSBs increases with LET, so does the probability of having more DSBs per RIF, which makes it more difficult for cells to fully resolve high-LET-induced RIF, explaining the hypersensitivity to high-LET radiation despite a low number of RIF. Taking into account the amount of clustering at a given dose and LET, but also the kinetics of DNA damage repair, we introduced a novel mathematical formalism to evaluate the number of remaining RIF over time. We showed that the newly introduced kinetic metrics can be used as surrogate biomarkers for in vivo radiation toxicity, with potential applications in radiotherapy and human space exploration. In particular, we observed an association between the repairable fraction of RIF measured in vitro and survival levels of immune cells collected from irradiated mice. Moreover, the speed of DNA damage repair correlated with spontaneous cancer incidence data collected from the Mouse Tumor Biology database, suggesting a relationship between the efficiency of DSB repair after irradiation and cancer risk. In addition to the efficacy of repair and persistent RIF levels, even the amount of spontaneous foci without irradiation was shown to be strain dependent, indicating that these phenotypes are at least partially driven by genetics, and supporting their potential as indicators of individual radiation sensitivity. [1] Neumaier, T., et al., PNAS, 2012 (8) 109:443

Radiation, DNA damage, repair kinetics↗
NASA NTRS2020

In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters

Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Banerjee, Portia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrate new plasticity models for doped UO 2 that capture dislocation mechanisms

In light water reactors, fuel vendors are investigating the use of dopants to modify the properties of UO 2 pellets, with the goal of improving pellet-cladding mechanical interactions during operation. Dopants are expected to ‘soften’ the pellets; that is, the doped pellets have higher plastic deformation than conventional UO 2 . This leads to a reduction in the severity of mechanical pellet-cladding interactions, helping to reduce the hoop strain on the cladding. By minimizing the strain exerted by the pellet on the cladding, it is anticipated that cladding performance under accident conditions can be enhanced (i.e., lowering the risk of burst during a LOCA). Dopants such as chromium (Cr) promote grain growth during pellet fabrication, leading to larger grains; therefore, understanding the link between chemistry, microstructure and mechanical deformation (enhanced creep rates) behavior of UO 2 is critical to helping operators further substantiate the benefits of doping UO 2 . Historically, the nuclear energy industry has relied on empirical models to make assessments of performance. Compared to empirical models, mechanistic physics-based models provide benefits, such as, fewer data points for validation and better extrapolation where experimental data is scarce or non-existent. In this report, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to a previously developed lower length-scale-informed diffusional creep model. The objective is to i) infer lower-length-scale parameter distributions from available experiment and then ii) determine the uncertainties in the measurable quantity (in this case creep rates) after propagating the inferred lower length scale parameter uncertainties. The approach requires many evaluations of the model, which becomes computationally insurmountable; therefore, a neural-network model is trained to data obtained by sampling the full model over the most important parameters. This neural-network is then used in the Bayesian inference approach to determine probability distributions in the parameter values that represent the uncertainty in the model given what is known from the experiments (posterior). A significant reduction compared to conservative initial (prior) uncertainties is achieved through inference against the experimental data, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, by accounting for uncertainties in the experimental conditions and sample non-stoichiometry, it is possible to resolve apparent discrepancies in experimental measurements within a self-consistent grain boundary (Coble) creep model that is sensitive to chemistry. This work has been written up and submitted to Nuclear Technology for a special issue on accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ). This uncertainty quantification (UQ) work not only improves the diffusional model, while accounting for uncertainty, but also establishes a framework which can readily be applied to the mechanistic models of dislocation deformation developed in this study. The most likely values from the Bayesian analysis are incorporated into our UO 2 diffusional creep model and a lower length scale-informed irradiation UO 2 creep mechanistic model to generate a dataset. This dataset has been provided to our INL collaborators for training an artificial neural network surrogate model, which will be implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to assess how the results differ from those currently obtained using a fully empirical model and that of using the nominal (uncalibrated) atomic scale parameters in our mechanistic model. Plastic deformation (creep and glide) in UO 2 is a complex phenomenon, governed by multiple underlying processes such as local defect concentrations, applied stresses, and microstructural characteristics. Consequently, there is a need for a meso-scale model with polycrystalline resolution capable of extrapolating to large grain sizes applicable to doped UO 2 , where data is limited and the model can help bridge the knowledge gap. By integrating atomistic data into the polycrystal LApx code, it becomes possible to predict dislocation climb and glide plasticity that simple analytical models cannot accurately represent. The application of atomic-scale data within LApx demonstrated the importance of climb and glide mechanisms in reproducing high-stress UO 2 behavior. Behaviors such as this are crucial to capture and implement in BISON, as parts of the fuel pellet can reach temperatures where glide can occur before pellet cracking. This model which captures dislocation based mechanisms for UO 2 is then used to stand up the doped model accounting for larger grain sizes. It was found that larger grain sizes can lead to enhanced deformation rates in the glide regime, and therefore can help with the pellet cladding mechanical interaction. Therefore if the fuel pellet reaches conditions (stress/temperature) where glide is active, the enhanced creep rates for larger grains in the glide regime (doped UO 2 ) can help with pellet cladding mechanical interactions. Plastic deformation in UO 2 involves multiple mechanisms, including diffusional creep, dislocation climb, and glide. This milestone contains two parts: (1) UQ of a pre-existing lower length scale informed mechanistic diffusional creep model, and (2) development of a new LApx based model for dislocation-mediated creep mechanisms in UO 2 , with application to large-grain doped UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Performance Testing of a Liquid Metal Pump for In-Space Power Systems

Fission surface power (FSP) systems could be used to provide power on the surface of the moon, Mars, or other planets and moons of our solar system. Fission power systems could provide excellent performance at any location, including those near the poles or other permanently shaded regions, and offer the capability to provide on demand power at any time, even at large distances from the sun. Fission-based systems also offer the potential for outposts, crew and science instruments to operate in a power-rich environment. NASA has been exploring technologies with the goal of reducing the cost and technical risk of employing FSP systems. A reference 40 kWe option has been devised that is cost-competitive with alternatives while providing more power for less mass anywhere on the lunar surface. The reference FSP system is also readily extensible for use on Mars, where it would be capable of operating through global dust storms and providing year-round power at any Martian latitude. Detailed development of the FSP concept and the reference mission are documented in various other reports. The development discussed in this paper prepares the way for testing of the Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU), which is a 10 kWe end-to-end test of FSP technologies intended to raise the entire FSP system to technology readiness level (TRL) 6. The Early Flight Fission Test Facility (EFF-TF) was established by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to provide a capability for performing hardware-directed activities to support multiple in-space nuclear reactor concepts by using a nonnuclear test methodology. This includes fabrication and testing at both the module/component level and at near prototypic reactor components and configurations allowing for realistic thermal-hydraulic evaluations of systems. The liquid-metal pump associated with the FSP system must be compatible with the liquid NaK coolant and have adequate performance to enable a viable flight system. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was tasked with the modeling, design, and fabrication of an ALIP suitable for the FSP reference mission. A prototypic ALIP was fabricated under the direction of INL and shipped to MSFC for inclusion in the Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU), a quarter-scale end-to-end reactor simulator system that is scheduled for testing at NASA-GRC. Before inclusion in the TDU, the ALIP was tested in the ALIP test circuit (ATC), which is a rig developed and operated at MSFC for the specific purpose of providing accurate quantification of liquid metal pump performance. Data showing the pump performance curves (pressure, flowrate, and pump efficiency) are presented for various operating power levels, demonstrating the full performance envelope of the pump.

Polzin, Kurt↗
NASA NTRS2022

Event Report for The Ethical Artificial Intelligence Quantification Workshop

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a powerful emerging technology area which requires special attention to using it ethically. AI ethics is still an emerging field, and the partners for this workshop and report seek to move AI ethics discussion ahead by experimenting with ways to measure AI ethics criteria. The following document describes the outcomes and learnings from The Ethical Artificial Intelligence Quantification Workshop held at the National Institute for Aerospace (NIA), Hampton, Virginia on May 12th, 2022. The purpose of the workshop was for participants to evaluate and experiment-with the methodology and process presented by AIEthics.World in cooperation with Intel Corporation. The meeting participants learned about the Ethical AI Certification and Maturity Model™ and applied the methodology to selected notional AI systems. The workshop facilitated the evaluation of the maturity of the AI system according to ethical considerations relevant to NASA, NIA and other participants. The workshop consisted of three main phases. The first phase focused on understanding and summarizing NASA’s ethical approaches, mission and values based on published documentation, discussions and individual insights & opinions of participants. This information was prioritized, weighted, ordered, and quantified in phase two, to formulate an alignment between human values (ethics) and their applicability to AI systems during all lifecycle phases. The first two phases were summarized as a form of ethical genealogy for artificial intelligence, specific to NASA’s ethical approaches. In the third and last phase of the workshop the participants evaluated notional examples of artificial intelligence to qualify and quantify its ability to adhere to the organizational ethics approaches, using the Ethical AI Certification and Maturity Model™. The workshop uses the concept of genealogy, in the traditional sense: the study and traceability of lines of ancestors in the process of evolutionary development from earlier forms. However, as it is applied to an Ethical AI definition, it is providing the insights to the necessary and mandatory traceability of content, data, metrics, telemetry, elements, and structures which are used in the AI’s lifecycle to foster and measure AI ethics in all steps of its lifecycle. The Ethical Artificial Intelligence Quantification Workshop provided NASA with the opportunity to apply the Ethical AI Certification and Maturity Model™, in combination with existing and well-known decision-making and quality control methods to identify the metrics and measurements for an Ethical AI and assess its ethical condition and quality aligned with NASA ethics approaches. The result of the workshop is the capacity for NASA to apply the maturity model assessment to its AI Systems as desired and if necessary, publish the ability of these AI Systems to adhere to the organizational ethical goals. AI ethics frameworks need to be customized for each application domain, for example, individual NASA Mission Directorates. General principles that work in one area such as AI/Machine Learning-based text analysis (the ethics of information-extraction) may need to be adapted for another such as sense-and-avoid decision-making in a flight environment. The workshop was conducted among approximately twenty NASA subject matter experts, so the elements noted above should be considered examples, not definitive NASA ethical AI principles, genealogy, etc. Generating a definitive AI ethics framework for an organization as diverse as NASA would require far more discussion, debate, review, etc. However, the workshop provided valuable insight into mechanisms and processes for quantifying AI ethical qualities.

Artificial Intelligence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will be discussing the progress made developing SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator. SWIPE is a platform for advanced modeling of coastal and inland aquatic habitats. The goal is create a comprehensive and cohesive system to leverage recent advancements in computation and machine learning to develop a synthetic training ground for sensitivity studies and algorithm development. The four principal facets of SWIPE include: 1. Advanced two-layer coated sphere bio-optical modeling and GPU radiative transfer modeling, 2. Big Data involving massive synthetic spectral libraries of optical properties of various global aquatic particles, surface reflectance, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance, all at hyperspectral resolution leveraging high-end computing systems at NASA Ames Research Center, 3. Deep Learning for algorithm development for water quality inversion of concentrations of common biogeophysical variables as well as optics, full uncertainty characterization by water type, and forward emulation, and lastly, 4. Image Processing for application of developed retrieval algorithms for both hyperspectral and multispectral sensors with experimental corrections for global adjacency, noise, sunglint, and benthic reflectance. This presentation will demonstrate the Equivalent Algal Populations (EAP) two-layer coated sphere scattering model which has been used develop spectral libraries of hyperspectral inherent optical properties of roughly 80 species of phytoplankton, covering 15 different classes and nine taxonomic functional types. The EAP model was also used to derive spectral properties of 10 different non-algal particle functional types. Examples of how the SMART-G (Speed-up Monte-carlo Advanced Radiative Transfer using GPU) radiative transfer code is used to model optically complex aquatic signals will be presented and discussed in the context of creating a massive synthetic database which can leverage the full power of next generation machine learning techniques and high end computing for water quality inversion. We will discuss our active investigation in things like appropriate model architectures, dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and autoencoders, uncertainty quantification and abstaining, and which variables actually benefit most from hyperspectral information versus multispectral resolution. We are also curious about questions relating to cost/benefit analysis in terms of computation resources, neural network complexity, and data volumes. Answers to these questions will hopefully elaborate on cost efficiency for potential future sensor design considerations.

SWIPE↗