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NASA NTRS2016

Towards a Methodology and Tooling for Model-Based Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) aims to identify and assess potential risks to system technical performance requirements for the purpose of furnishing risk insights into project decisions. PRAs have traditionally been conducted manually using software with an isolated data model. As system complexity rises it becomes difficult to ensure consistency between a PRA, the evolving system design, and other engineering analyses; the techniques for conducting PRAs must evolve to meet this challenge. This work presents progress towards a methodology and tooling for conducting a PRA by leveraging data in the system model, embedded for other purposes and analyses, to conduct a PRA. An approach for identifying the appropriate probabilistic equation for each risk scenario from a standard library is presented, which is a significant step towards the quantification of the likelihood of a risk scenario occurrence. The final calculation of the likelihood of occurrence is left as an item of future work. We also present the development of preliminary tooling to carry out the methodology on a well-formed system model. The information needed to conduct the PRA is embedded in a consistent manner in a system model, so the model-based PRA can be regularly executed as the system model changes. The ability to modify the PRA in concert with lifecycle evolution affords a project the opportunity to track the extent to which system modification impacts compliance with requirements. These aspects of this model-based PRA methodology make it capable of managing risk in increasingly complex technical systems.

Schreiner, Samuel S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Post-Challenger evaluation of space shuttle risk assessment and management

As the shock of the Space Shuttle Challenger accident began to subside, NASA initiated a wide range of actions designed to ensure greater safety in various aspects of the Shuttle system and an improved focus on safety throughout the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) Program. Certain specific features of the NASA safety process are examined: the Critical Items List (CIL) and the NASA review of the Shuttle primary and backup units whose failure might result in the loss of life, the Shuttle vehicle, or the mission; the failure modes and effects analyses (FMEA); and the hazard analysis and their review. The conception of modern risk management, including the essential element of objective risk assessment is described and it is contrasted with NASA's safety process in general terms. The discussion, findings, and recommendations regarding particular aspects of the NASA STS safety assurance process are reported. The 11 subsections each deal with a different aspect of the process. The main lessons learned by SCRHAAC in the course of the audit are summarized.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1971

Application of system safety to rail transit systems

Management emphasis on system safety in the rapid transit industry includes the granting and use of funds by the Federal Government according to systematic analysis of safety hazards in advance. Likelihood predictions that those hazards will be activated by exposure of the system to a system failure, a human error, external conditions, or combinations of these aspects determine alternatives to the assumption of risk and recommend corrections before the system is operational. Rigorous safety analyses are projected to assure operational safety for prolonged periods under varied maintenance conditions; these analysis encompass station accident possibilities as well as train-person collisions, car equipment and design, traffic control systems, and tunnel design problems.

Thomas DeW. Styles↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Lunar Lander "HabiTank" Concept

This paper will summarize the study that was conducted under the auspices of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), lead by Johnson Space Center s Engineering Directorate in support of the Lunar Lander Preparatory Study (LLPS) as sponsored by the Constellation Program Office (CxPO), Advanced Projects Office (APO). The lunar lander conceptual design and analysis is intended to provide an understanding of requirements for human space exploration of the Moon using the Advanced Projects Office Pre-Lander Project Office selected "HabiTank" Lander concept. In addition, these analyses help identify system "drivers," or significant sources of cost, performance, risk, and schedule variation along with areas needing technology development. Recommendations, results, and conclusions in this paper do not reflect NASA policy or programmatic decisions. This paper is an executive summary of this study.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

L-Band System Engineering - Concepts of Use, Systems Performance Requirements, and Architecture

This document is being provided as part of ITT s NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: New ATM Requirements-Future Communications, C-band and L-band Communications Standard Development. Task 7 was motivated by the five year technology assessment performed for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) under the joint FAA-EUROCONTROL cooperative research Action Plan (AP-17), also known as the Future Communications Study (FCS). It was based on direction provided by the FAA project-level agreement (PLA FY09_G1M.02-02v1) for "New ATM Requirements-Future Communications." Task 7 was separated into two distinct subtasks, each aligned with specific work elements and deliverable items. Subtask 7-1 addressed C-band airport surface data communications standards development, systems engineering, test bed development, and tests/demonstrations to establish operational capability for what is now referred to as the Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS). Subtask 7-2, which is the subject of this report, focused on preliminary systems engineering and support of joint FAA/EUROCONTROL development and evaluation of a future L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) air/ground (A/G) communication system known as the L-band digital aeronautical communications system (L-DACS), which was defined during the FCS. The proposed L-DACS will be capable of providing ATM services in continental airspace in the 2020+ timeframe. Subtask 7-2 was performed in two phases. Phase I featured development of Concepts of Use, high level functional analyses, performance of initial L-band system safety and security risk assessments, and development of high level requirements and architectures. It also included the aforementioned support of joint L-DACS development and evaluation, including inputs to L-DACS design specifications. Phase II provided a refinement of the systems engineering activities performed during Phase I, along with continued joint FAA/EUROCONTROL L-DACS development and evaluation support.

Henriksen, Stephen↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA Space Flight Vehicle Fault Isolation Challenges

The Space Launch System (SLS) is the new NASA heavy lift launch vehicle and is scheduled for its first mission in 2017. The goal of the first mission, which will be uncrewed, is to demonstrate the integrated system performance of the SLS rocket and spacecraft before a crewed flight in 2021. SLS has many of the same logistics challenges as any other large scale program. Common logistics concerns for SLS include integration of discrete programs geographically separated, multiple prime contractors with distinct and different goals, schedule pressures and funding constraints. However, SLS also faces unique challenges. The new program is a confluence of new hardware and heritage, with heritage hardware constituting seventy-five percent of the program. This unique approach to design makes logistics concerns such as testability of the integrated flight vehicle especially problematic. The cost of fully automated diagnostics can be completely justified for a large fleet, but not so for a single flight vehicle. Fault detection is mandatory to assure the vehicle is capable of a safe launch, but fault isolation is another issue. SLS has considered various methods for fault isolation which can provide a reasonable balance between adequacy, timeliness and cost. This paper will address the analyses and decisions the NASA Logistics engineers are making to mitigate risk while providing a reasonable testability solution for fault isolation.

Bramon, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Experimental Global Monitoring System for Rainfall-triggered Landslides using Satellite Remote Sensing Information

Landslides triggered by rainfall can possibly be foreseen in real time by jointly using rainfall intensity-duration thresholds and information related to land surface susceptibility. However, no system exists at either a national or a global scale to monitor or detect rainfall conditions that may trigger landslides due to the lack of extensive ground-based observing network in many parts of the world. Recent advances in satellite remote sensing technology and increasing availability of high-resolution geospatial products around the globe have provided an unprecedented opportunity for such a study. In this paper, a framework for developing an experimental real-time monitoring system to detect rainfall-triggered landslides is proposed by combining two necessary components: surface landslide susceptibility and a real-time space-based rainfall analysis system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.aov). First, a global landslide susceptibility map is derived from a combination of semi-static global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a GIs weighted linear combination approach. Second, an adjusted empirical relationship between rainfall intensity-duration and landslide occurrence is used to assess landslide risks at areas with high susceptibility. A major outcome of this work is the availability of a first-time global assessment of landslide risk, which is only possible because of the utilization of global satellite remote sensing products. This experimental system can be updated continuously due to the availability of new satellite remote sensing products. This proposed system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary efforts as recommended herein, bears the promise to grow many local landslide hazard analyses into a global decision-making support system for landslide disaster preparedness and risk mitigation activities across the world.

Hong, Yang↗

NASA NTRS2013

TPSAS-NF1676L-17243-DND

This presentation captures ERA Project's effort in using integrated cost-schedule-risk analysis tool, identifying and capturing explicit relationships between program funds, schedule, and discrete risks. The project team merged a myriad of cost and schedule data for timely, objective, uncertainty analysis of the ITD's budget and schedule. The project team conducted detailed schedule uncertainty analysis showing schedule activities and how their interrelationships were impacted, representing an impressive advance beyond routine Gantt charts. Furthermore, the ERA Project collected discrete risk events including their impacts to costs and/or schedule and interwove these risks into cost and schedule logic networks, providing the foundation to conduct cost and schedule analyses. The team integrated this data into the analysis model, providing probabilistic results that were then used by the ERA Project's senior management for decision-making purposes. The ERA Project management team, through technical and pathfinder expertise in integrating cost, schedule, risk, and technical content, consistently provided risk-informed recommendations to Implementing Centers and ISRP senior management which ultimately ensured the successful ARMD Key Decision Point (KDP) review of the ERA Phase 2 ITD Portfolio and increased the likelihood of achieving technical objectives within cost and schedule constraints.

Gaudy M Bezos-O'Connor↗

NASA NTRS1977

Risk of natural environment changes after Space Shuttle deorbit decision

The purpose of the present paper is to point out the risk of change of certain natural environment events that may be of concern in Space Shuttle landing analyses and deorbit decisions. These events are: precipitation, except light rain showers; thunderstorms with ceilings below 4000 ft; runway crosswinds above 20 knots peak at 33 ft; and thunderstorms in the descending glide path. Risk calculations showed that for deorbit decisions made one hour before landing, the maximum risk of change from favorable to unfavorable natural environment conditions is approximately 12 percent, the risk existing for only a few hours in midafternoon. Thunderstorms in the glide path account for more than three fourths of the total risk.

Brown, S. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

How Can We Efficiently Build A Spacecraft That Has Longevity? Experiences From the GSFC Perspective to Inform Lunar Exploration and Science Orbiter’s Architecture

Recent successes in NASA planetary science missions has shown that long-lived missions can yield significant science return. These missions, despite their longevity, were not planned to operate beyond their deign life. For example, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter has a design life of 2-3 years, and yet we are entering its 14th year on orbit. Spacecraft longevity in practice has been related to: 1) mission class; 2) did we test it long enough and resolve all the anomalies to be beyond the early failure curve; 3) consumables budgets, and 4) how components are de-signed and tested. Mission class has been perceived as one of the primary ways to drive longevity. But higher mission class is a significant cost and mission driver. Parts selection only from the limited military standard parts and extensive parts qualification adds to development time and cost. Largely redundant (often erroneously interpreted as fully redundant) adds to launch mass and increases testing complexity (which may reduce the amount of testing in the nominal con-figuration). Lower Risk Posture (reflected in a higher mission class) drives significant additional processes and quality assurance analyses. Higher mission class also drives significantly greater sparing and life testing costs. This discussion focuses on whether this is indeed the best way to achieve longevity efficiently or whether there are more efficient ways to achieve longevity. Empirical evidence shows that lower mission classes that implement effective risk reduction and selective redundancy generally results in long life at a lower Spacecraft bus cost. By evaluating redundancy careful-ly, spacecraft cost can be lowered which can enable a more capable payload. Risk of the mission is highly dependent on the complexity of the mission and is only loosely dependent on Class of Mission. High complexity missions can have many single point failures and require the development of new technology, while lower class mission can have lower risk by baselining or incorporating: (selective) redundancy, fault-tolerant design, design for minimum risk, ability to reset, and/or design for graceful degradation. The team met with Goddard Space Flight Center Space Systems Mission Operations leaders to discuss which avionics have proven in flight to be the most reliable and which have had lifetime issues. The paper proposes a list of components to focus on for redundancy for a long-lived lunar mission. Reliability numbers are presented for both single string and dual string missions. The history of life-time performance versus planned mission life according to mission class is presented. A mission with well thought out selective redundancy and effective on the ground test program, can be expected to last well beyond its mission lifetime and provided enhanced return for the community. This approach minimizes project expenditures that do not retire significant risk and allows the project to focus risk mitigation efforts on those risks that will have a significant likelihood of threatening mission success. This is aided by keeping the amount of technology maturation and mission complexity low, while focusing effort on ensuring all component stress-ing parameters well within the bounds of their capabilities.

Lessons Learned↗

NASA NTRS1991

Mass and power modeling of communication satellites

Analytic estimating relationships for the mass and power requirements for major satellite subsystems are described. The model for each subsystem is keyed to the performance drivers and system requirements that influence their selection and use. Guidelines are also given for choosing among alternative technologies which accounts for other significant variables such as cost, risk, schedule, operations, heritage, and life requirements. These models are intended for application to first order systems analyses, where resources do not warrant detailed development of a communications system scenario. Given this ground rule, the models are simplified to 'smoothed' representation of reality. Therefore, the user is cautioned that cost, schedule, and risk may be significantly impacted where interpolations are sufficiently different from existing hardware as to warrant development of new devices.

Price, Kent M.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Analysis of the Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE) with Ice Crystal Cloud Ingestion at Simulated Altitudes: Public Version

The Honeywell Uncertified Research Engine (HURE), a research version of a turbofan engine that never entered production, was tested in the NASA Propulsion System Laboratory (PSL), an altitude test facility at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL is a facility that is equipped with water spray bars capable of producing an ice cloud consisting of ice particles, having a controlled particle diameter and concentration in the air flow. In preparation for testing of the HURE, numerical analysis of flow and ice particle thermodynamics was performed on the compression system of the turbofan engine to predict operating conditions that could potentially result in a risk of ice accretion due to ice crystal ingestion. The results of those analyses formed the basis of the test matrix. The goal of the test matrix was to have ice accrete in two regions of the compression system: region one, which consists of the fan-stator through the inlet guide vane (IGV), and region two which is the first stator within the high pressure compressor. The predictive analyses were performed with the mean line compressor flow modeling code (COMDES-MELT) which includes an ice particle model. Together these comprise a one-dimensional icing tool. The HURE engine was tested in PSL with the ice cloud over the range of operating conditions of altitude, ambient temperature, simulated flight Mach number, and fan speed with guidance from the analytical predictions. The engine was fitted with video cameras at strategic locations within the engine compression system flow path where ice was predicted to accrete, in order to visually confirm ice accretion when it occurred. In addition, traditional compressor instrumentation such as total pressure and temperature probes, static pressure taps, and metal temperature thermocouples were installed in targeted areas where the risk of ice accretion was expected. The current research focuses on the analysis of the data that was obtained after testing the HURE engine in PSL with ice crystal ingestion. The computational method was enhanced by computing key parameters through the fan-stator at multiple spanwise locations, in order to increase the fidelity with the current mean-line method. In addition, other sources of heat (non-adiabatic walls) were suspected to be the cause of accretion near the splitter-lip and shroud. Since there were no thermocouples near the splitter, a simple order of magnitude heat transfer model was implemented to estimate the wall temperature. Future analyses will require a higher fidelity thermal analysis of the compression system metal walls to accurately calculate the total heat flux to the ice particle. For many data points analyzed, there were differences between the thermodynamic system model and the measured test data that may partially be responsible for uncertainties with the results of the current analyses.

Turbomachinery↗

NASA NTRS1994

Rocket engine system reliability analyses using probabilistic and fuzzy logic techniques

The reliability of rocket engine systems was analyzed by using probabilistic and fuzzy logic techniques. Fault trees were developed for integrated modular engine (IME) and discrete engine systems, and then were used with the two techniques to quantify reliability. The IRRAS (Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System) computer code, developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, was used for the probabilistic analyses, and FUZZYFTA (Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis), a code developed at NASA Lewis Research Center, was used for the fuzzy logic analyses. Although both techniques provided estimates of the reliability of the IME and discrete systems, probabilistic techniques emphasized uncertainty resulting from randomness in the system whereas fuzzy logic techniques emphasized uncertainty resulting from vagueness in the system. Because uncertainty can have both random and vague components, both techniques were found to be useful tools in the analysis of rocket engine system reliability.

Hardy, Terry L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Spacecraft survivability in the meteoroid and debris environment

A number of methods for providing adequate protection from meteoroid and orbital debris impact are available to space vehicle designers. Several techniques to reduce the risks from meteoroid and debris (M&D) impact are presented and assessed in the context of Space Station Freedom (SSF) applications. Evaluations of these options were made using BUMPER, a computer program to perform M&D analyses. M&D survivability can be improved by conducting an in-depth analysis of spacecraft penetration risks to reveal weak areas of the design and to determine optimal distribution of shielding and/or protection capability around the space vehicle. This paper compares enhanced hypervelocity impact shielding techniques that are more weight efficient than conventional shielding approaches. Other design and operational strategies to reduce meteoroid and debris risks are also discussed.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Logistics and Supportability for Crewed Missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit

NASA’s future missions aim to establish a sustained human presence on the lunar surface and send humans to Mars. These missions will send crews farther from home than previous missions, limiting the opportunities for resupply missions. Additionally, the use of multiple launches and reusable elements will increase mission and campaign complexity. Logistics and supportability analysis evaluates the link between mission and system characteristics and key metrics such as logistics and spares mass and volume, crew time, and risk. As missions become increasingly complex and crews are logistically isolated for longer periods of time, logistics and supportability will become more powerful drivers of risk and cost and, therefore, more important considerations during system and mission development. When logistics and supportability are considered from the beginning of system and mission development, opportunities arise to create more efficient, lower-risk systems. Design choices made without detailed consideration of logistics and supportability have the potential to result in greater risks and increased costs as all options may not have been analyzed. This paper provides an overview of a methodology used for space mission logistics and supportability analysis, including key metrics, assumptions, and required inputs. Example applications of this methodology to explore the impacts of system architecture, dormancy, and synergies between lunar and Mars missions are also presented. Conducting these holistic analyses enables informed decision-making for mission planning and system design, which can help mitigate the risk of loss of mission, vehicle, or crew. Using the knowledge of historical missions, experiences gained on the lunar surface, and logistics and supportability analyses, NASA can examine and optimize supportability characteristics for safer and more effective operations for future lunar and Mars missions.

Supportability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Logistics and Supportability for Crewed Missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit

Supportability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACT, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite as it nears its System Acceptance Review (SAR). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY23. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedule.

IMPACT↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Risk-Based Approach for Aerothermal/TPS Analysis and Testing

The current status of aerothermal and thermal protection system modeling for civilian entry missions is reviewed. For most such missions, the accuracy of our simulations is limited not by the tools and processes currently employed, but rather by reducible deficiencies in the underlying physical models. Improving the accuracy of and reducing the uncertainties in these models will enable a greater understanding of the system level impacts of a particular thermal protection system and of the system operation and risk over the operational life of the system. A strategic plan will be laid out by which key modeling deficiencies can be identified via mission-specific gap analysis. Once these gaps have been identified, the driving component uncertainties are determined via sensitivity analyses. A Monte-Carlo based methodology is presented for physics-based probabilistic uncertainty analysis of aerothermodynamics and thermal protection system material response modeling. These data are then used to advocate for and plan focused testing aimed at reducing key uncertainties. The results of these tests are used to validate or modify existing physical models. Concurrently, a testing methodology is outlined for thermal protection materials. The proposed approach is based on using the results of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses discussed above to tailor ground testing so as to best identify and quantify system performance and risk drivers. A key component of this testing is understanding the relationship between the test and flight environments. No existing ground test facility can simultaneously replicate all aspects of the flight environment, and therefore good models for traceability to flight are critical to ensure a low risk, high reliability thermal protection system design. Finally, the role of flight testing in the overall thermal protection system development strategy is discussed.

Wright, Michael J.↗