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At least 181 records · Page 10

The Role of Bjerknes and Shortwave Feedbacks in the Tropical Pacific SST Response to Global Warming

Abstract The evolution of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in response to greenhouse warming is of great societal and scientific interest. Most state‐of‐the‐art climate models predict a mean “El Niño‐like” warming pattern by century‐end, characterized by greater warming over the Pacific cold tongue compared to the western warm pool. However, it is unclear which proposed mechanism dominates in this response. Here, we present partially coupled abrupt CO 2 doubling experiments in which surface wind stress and shortwave heating are overridden to values from a control simulation. Contrary to previous studies, we find that experiments with overriding of surface wind stress exhibit only 58% of the full reduction in east‐west SST contrast. When both surface wind stress and shortwave flux are overridden, only 34% of the full reduction remains, controlled by spatially‐varying evaporative cooling. These results underscore the importance of Bjerknes and shortwave feedbacks in the tropical Pacific SST response to global warming.

Geology↗

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Voltammetric Measurement of Rates and Energetics for Surface Methoxylation of Si(100) in Methanol with Dissolved Electron Acceptors Using Si Ultramicroelectrodes

The steady-state voltammetric responses of n-type Si(100) semiconductor ultramicroelectrodes (SUMEs) immersed in air- and water-free methanolic electrolytes have been measured. The response characteristics of these SUMEs in the absence of illumination were modeled and understood through a framework that describes the distribution of the applied potential across the semiconductor/electrolyte contact using four discrete regions: the semiconductor space charge, surface, Helmholtz, and diffuse layers. The latter region was described by the full Gouy–Chapman model. This framework afforded insight on how relevant parameters such as the semiconductor band edge potentials, the reorganization energies for charge transfer, the standard potential of redox species in solution, the density and energy of surface state populations, and the presence of an insulating (tunneling) layer individually and collectively dictate the observable current–potential responses. With this information, the methoxylation of Si surfaces was evaluated by analysis of the change in voltammetric responses during the course of prolonged immersion in methanol. Here, the electrochemical data were consistent with a surface methoxylation mechanism that depended on the standard potential of redox species dissolved in solution. Estimates of the enthalpies of adsorption as well as the potential-dependent rate constant for surface methoxylation were obtained. Collectively, these measurements supported the contention that the rates of Si surface reactions can be systematically tuned by exposure to dissolved outer-sphere electron acceptors. Moreover, the data represent the quantitative utility of voltammetry with SUMEs for the measurement of semiconductor/liquid contacts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Electric Grid Operations

The future of the grid will be powered by AI—or undermined by it. Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping grid operations, improving fault detection, forecasting accuracy, and real-time optimization. As AI systems move closer to operational decision loops, however, they introduce new consequence pathways: expanded attack surfaces, model integrity risks, regulatory exposure, and human-automation challenges. This talk presents a consequence-driven framework for deploying AI responsibly in the electric grid. Attendees will gain practical strategies to strengthen resilience, boost reliability, and deploy AI securely — ensuring the grid of the future is not only smarter but safer.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

Convectively Induced Secondary Circulations and Wind‐Driven Heat Fluxes in the Surface Energy Balance Over Land

Increased resolution has enabled kilometer-scale weather and climate models to partially resolve secondary circulations, including horizontal convective rolls (HCRs) and cold pool gust fronts. Although these circulations are ubiquitous in convective boundary layers over land, their impacts on the surface energy balance are largely unknown. Doppler lidar and surface observations were combined with DOE E3SM land model experiments, revealing increased surface winds (5 m/s) and heat fluxes (50 W/m 2 ) in convergent branches of HCRs. Larger wind-driven flux responses (up to 150 W/m 2 ) were found along gust fronts. Surface energy balance shifts to accommodate wind-driven fluxes, reducing ground heat conduction and longwave cooling. Our findings from the US Southern Great Plains are broadly relevant to modeling convective boundary layers. In particular, widely used subgrid wind gust parameterizations were found to be physically inconsistent with resolved secondary circulations and could worsen climate prediction biases at kilometer-scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal model for time-domain thermoreflectance experiments in a laser-flash geometry

Time-domain thermoreflectance (TDTR) is a well-established pump–probe method for measuring thermal conductivity and interface conductance of multilayers. Interpreting signals in a TDTR experiment requires a thermal model. In standard front/front TDTR experiments, both pump and probe beams typically irradiate the surface of a multilayer. As a result, existing thermal models for interpreting thermoreflectance experiments assume that the pump and probe beams both interact with the surface layer. Here, we present a frequency-domain solution to the heat-diffusion equation of a multilayer in response to nonhomogeneous laser heating. This model allows analysis of experiments where the pump and probe beams irradiate opposite sides of a multilayer. We call such a geometry a front/back experiment to differentiate such experiments from standard TDTR experiments. As an example, we consider a 60nm amorphous Si film. We consider how signals differ in a front/front vs front/back geometry and compare thermal model predictions to experimental data.

Peng, Wanyue↗

Theoretical investigation of braking of tearing mode rotation by resistive walls in ITER

The locking of the 2/1 tearing mode to the resistive wall in the ITER tokamak (15 MA inductive scenario 2) is investigated theoretically using a cylindrical asymptotic matching model. The model takes into account the fact that ITER plasmas will effectively be surrounded by two walls; the inner blanket module layer with a time constant of about 23 ms, and the outer vacuum vessel with a time constant of about 380 ms. The model also takes cognizance of the fact that neither the blanket module layer nor the vacuum vessel can be accurately described as “thin” walls (in the ordinarily accepted sense). The model incorporates changes in both the plasma poloidal and the toroidal angular velocity profiles, in response to the electromagnetic braking torque that develops at the rational surface, because it turns out that neoclassical poloidal flow-damping is not strong enough to completely suppress changes in the poloidal velocity. Finally, the model accurately calculates changes in the poloidal and toroidal plasma angular velocity profiles by evolving the full angular equations of motion, taking the electromagnetic braking torque, plasma inertia, plasma viscosity, and poloidal flow-damping into account. The time required for the 2/1 tearing mode to grow from a small amplitude to a sufficient one to lock to the walls is found to be about 3.5 s. As a result, the critical full radial island width at which wall locking is triggered is found to be about 9% of the plasma minor radius.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Leptodermic corrections to the TOV equations and nuclear astrophysics within the effective surface approximation

The macroscopic model for a neutron star (NS) as a liquid drop at the equilibrium is used to extend the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff (TOV) equations taking into account the gradient terms responsible for the system surface. The parameters of the Schwarzschild metric in the spherical case are found with these surface corrections to the known leading (zero) order of the leptodermic approximation a/R << 1, where a is the NS effective-surface (ES) thickness, and R is the effective NS radius. The energy density $\mathscr{E}$ is considered in a general form including the functions of the particle number density and of its gradient terms. The macroscopic gravitational component $Φ$(ρ) of the energy density is taken into account in the simplest form as expansion in powers of $ρ$ – $\overline{ρ}$, where $\overline{ρ}$ is the saturation density, up to second order, in terms of its contributions to the separation particle energy and incompressibility. Density distributions ρ across the NS ES in the normal direction to the ES, which are derived in the simple analytical form at the same leading approximation, was used for the derivation of the modified TOV (MTOV) equations by accounting for their NS surface corrections. As a result, the MTOV equations are analytically solved at first order and the results are compared with the standard TOV approach of the zero order.

Magner, A. G. [Institute for Nuclear Research, Kyi↗

A Regime-Oriented Approach to Observationally Constraining Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks

The extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback is primarily due to increases in extratropical liquid cloud extent and optical depth. Here, we examine the response of extratropical (35°–75°) marine cloud liquid water path (LWP) to a uniform 4-K increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and variants of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 GCM. Compositing is used to partition data into periods inside and out of cyclones. The response of extratropical LWP to a uniform SST increase and associated atmospheric response varies substantially among GCMs, but the sensitivity of LWP to cloud controlling factors (CCFs) is qualitatively similar. When all other predictors are held constant, increasing moisture flux drives an increase in LWP. Increasing SST, holding all other predictors fixed, leads to a decrease in LWP. The combinations of these changes lead to LWP, and by extension reflected SW, increasing with warming in both hemispheres. Observations predict an increase in reflected SW over oceans of 0.8–1.6 W m -2 per kelvin SST increase (35°–75°N) and 1.2–1.9 W m -2 per kelvin SST increase (35°–75°S). This increase in reflected SW is mainly due to increased moisture convergence into cyclones because of increasing available moisture. The efficiency at which converging moisture is converted into precipitation determines the amount of liquid cloud. Thus, cyclone precipitation processes are critical to constraining extratropical cloud feedbacks

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hemispherically symmetric strategies for stratospheric aerosol injection

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) comes with a wide range of possible design choices, such as the location and timing of the injection. Different stratospheric aerosol injection strategies can yield different climate responses; therefore, understanding the range of possible climate outcomes is crucial to making informed future decisions on SAI, along with the consideration of other factors. Yet, to date, there has been no systematic exploration of a broad range of SAI strategies. This limits the ability to determine which effects are robust across different strategies and which depend on specific injection choices. This study systematically explores how the choice of SAI strategy affects climate responses in one climate model. Here, we introduce four hemispherically symmetric injection strategies, all of which are designed to maintain the same global mean surface temperature: an annual injection at the Equator (EQ), an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 15° N and 15° S (15N+15S), an annual injection of equal amounts of SO 2 at 30° N and 30° S (30N+30S), and a polar injection strategy that injects equal amounts of SO 2 at 60° N and 60° S only during spring in each hemisphere (60N+60S). We compare these four hemispherically symmetric SAI strategies with a more complex injection strategy that injects different quantities of SO 2 at 30° N, 15° N, 15° S, and 30° S in order to maintain not only the global mean surface temperature but also its large-scale horizontal gradients. All five strategies are simulated using version 2 of the Community Earth System Model with the middle atmosphere version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate model, version 6, as the atmospheric component, CESM2(WACCM6-MA), with the global warming scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5. We find that the choice of SAI strategy affects the spatial distribution of aerosol optical depths, injection efficiency, and various surface climate responses. In addition, injecting in the subtropics produces more global cooling per unit injection, with the EQ and the 60N+60S cases requiring, respectively, 59 % and 50 % more injection than the 30N+30S case to meet the same global mean temperature target. Injecting at higher latitudes results in larger Equator-to-pole temperature gradients. While all five strategies restore Arctic September sea ice, the high-latitude injection strategy is more effective due to the SAI-induced cooling occurring preferentially at higher latitudes. These results suggest trade-offs wherein different strategies appear better or worse, depending on which metrics are deemed important.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relationships between fault characteristics and seismic responses in a large lab-scale tri-axial injection test conducted on a faulted Castlegate Sandstone

Here to investigate mechanisms causing microseismicity (M w < 2) at a CO 2 injection site, a large-scale triaxial block experiment was carried out on a faulted (saw-cut) cubic-meter of Castlegate Sandstone. The experiment consisted of injection tests at varying differential stresses, while monitoring and recording pore pressure and acoustic emissions (AEs). During the experiment, ~33,000 AEs and ~14 mm of horizontal displacement/slip, like a strike-slip fault movement, occurred. To understand the AE responses and ascertain fault characteristics near the located AEs, we modeled the topography of the fault surface, fault aperture, and fault-gouge thickness using pre- and post-experiment laser scans of the fault surface on each half of the block. Additionally, we characterized surface roughness parallel and perpendicular to slip. Models show crushing and flattening of the fault surfaces can be linked to the spatiotemporal distribution of AEs within 50 mm of the fault surface. Approximately 65% of AEs were in areas with small aperture (≤300 μm); thicker fault gouge was observed in adjacent areas with wider aperture and shows a two-fold reduction in grain size relative to unaltered Castlegate Sandstone. This work provides a conceptual understanding on fault surface evolution, which can be applied towards modeling of seismic slip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Observed changes in dry-season water availability attributed to human-induced climate change

Human-induced climate change impacts the hydrological cycle and thus the availability of water resources. However, previous assessments of observed warming-induced changes in dryness have not excluded natural climate variability and show conflicting results due to uncertainties in our understanding of the response of evapotranspiration. Here in this paper, we employ data-driven and land-surface models to produce observation-based global reconstructions of water availability from 1902 to 2014, a period during which our planet experienced a global warming of approximately 1°C. Our analysis reveals a spatial pattern of changes in average water availability during the driest month of the year over the past three decades compared with the first half of the twentieth century, with some regions experiencing increased and some decreased water availability. The global pattern is consistent with climate model estimates that account for anthropogenic effects, and it is not expected from natural climate variability, supporting human-induced climate change as the cause. There is regional evidence of drier dry seasons predominantly in extratropical latitudes and including Europe, western North America, northern Asia, southern South America, Australia and eastern Africa. We also find that the intensification of the dry season is generally a consequence of increasing evapotranspiration rather than decreasing precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ion-dependent protein–surface interactions from intrinsic solvent response

Significance Hard–soft interfaces between inorganic surfaces and biomolecules promote self-assembly processes with broad implications in biogeochemistry, energy sciences, nanomedicine, and origins of life. Yet, detailed molecular-scale understanding of inorganic–biomolecule interactions and their dependence on solution conditions is missing. We present a theory for the initial stages of inorganic–biomolecule assembly based on the far-field response of water, using experimentally characterized interactions between muscovite surfaces and mica-binding proteins as model systems. Our work connects molecular details of the solution to assembly outcomes and suggests the initial driving forces for assembly are dominated by long-range, ion-specific interactions. The connections made between interfacial structure and long-range surface–biomolecule interactions provide insights toward a predictive understanding of biomolecular self-assembly on mineral surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Microwave microscope studies of trapped vortex dynamics in superconductors

Trapped vortices in superconductors introduce residual resistance in superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities and disrupt the operation of superconducting quantum and digital electronic circuits. Understanding the detailed dynamics of trapped vortices under oscillating magnetic fields is essential for advancing these technologies. We have developed a near-field magnetic microwave microscope to study the dynamics of a limited number of trapped vortices under the probe when stimulated by a localized rf magnetic field. By measuring the local second-harmonic response (𝑃 2⁢f ) at subfemto-Watt levels, we isolate signals exclusively arising from trapped vortices, excluding contributions from surface defects and Meissner screening currents. Toy models of niobium superconductor hosting vortex pinning sites are introduced and studied with time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau (TDGL) simulations of probe/sample interaction to better understand the measured second-harmonic response. The simulation results demonstrate that the second-harmonic response of trapped vortex motion under a localized rf magnetic field shares key features with the experimental data. Here, this measurement technique provides access to vortex dynamics at the micrometer scale, such as depinning events and spatially resolved pinning properties, as demonstrated in measurements on a niobium film with an antidot flux pinning array.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Investigation of Ethane Dehydrogenation and Hydrogenolysis on Pt(111), Pt(211), and Pt(100): Bayesian Quantification and Correction of DFT-Based Enthalpic and Entropic Uncertainties

Computational investigations of heterogeneously catalyzed reactions using density functional theory (DFT) are often inaccurate, largely due to uncertainties in the choice of DFT functional (enthalpic uncertainty) and approximations for modeling adsorbate movement along the catalyst surface (entropic uncertainty). This work illustrates that both uncertainties are significant in the investigation of ethane dehydrogenation (EDH) and hydrogenolysis on Pt catalysts by considering the complete deconstruction of ethane on Pt(111), Pt(211), and Pt(100) using microkinetic modeling (MKM). Hence, this work uses both noncalibrated and Bayesian-calibrated MKMs to quantify and correct inaccuracies in macroscopic properties due to both uncertainties. A Bayesian approach to the correction of entropic errors was introduced using a “Modified Fermi Function (MFF)” to calibrate between the two bounds of entropy represented by the harmonic oscillator (HO) and free translator (FT) approximations. Regardless of enthalpic and entropic uncertainties, all three surfaces are capable of ethane activation; however, Pt(211) was found to be the most active and is largely responsible for methane production. Next, Pt(111) is largely responsible for acetylene production, and Pt(100) has the highest ethylene selectivity but is most susceptible to coking. By comparison of different calibrated models, the FT entropy approximation was found to better describe EDH under typical experimental conditions. Statistical evidence was found to support Pt(111) as the active site for EDH, assuming that one single site is responsible for the chemistry. On the three surfaces, competing second dehydrogenations to CH 2 CH 2 and CH 3 CH were observed as well as isomerization of CH 3 CH back to CH 2 CH 2 and deeper dehydrogenation of CH 3 CH. In conclusion, C–C cleavage was found to largely proceed via the CH 3 C intermediate on Pt(100) and Pt(111), while on Pt(211), it was via both CHC and CH 3 C.

Bayesian model selection↗

Universal signatures of Dirac fermions in entanglement and charge fluctuations

We study the entanglement entropy (EE) and charge fluctuations in models where the low-energy physics is governed by massless Dirac fermions. We focus on the response to flux insertion which, for the EE, is widely assumed to be universal, i.e., independent of the microscopic details. We provide an analytical derivation of the EE and charge fluctuations for the seminal example of graphene, using the dimensional reduction of its tight-binding model to the one-dimensional Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model. Our asymptotic expression for the EE matches the conformal field theory prediction. We show that the charge variance has the same asymptotic behavior, up to a constant prefactor. To check the validity of universality arguments, we numerically consider several models, with different geometries and numbers of Dirac cones, and either for strictly two-dimensional models or for a gapless surface mode of three-dimensional topological insulators. We also show that the flux response does not depend on the entangling surface geometry as long as it encloses the flux. Finally we consider the universal corner contributions to the EE. We show that in the presence of corners, the Kitaev-Preskill subtraction scheme provides nonuniversal, geometry-dependent results.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Group-Additivity–Embedded Multiscale Modeling for Electric Field-Enhanced Nanocatalysis

Elucidating structure-performance relationships remains a central challenge in field-enhanced catalysis, where nanoparticles exhibit nonuniform surface sites with site-dependent responses to electric fields. Low-coordination sites (edges, corners, and tips) are particularly electric field-sensitive (EF), leading to nonuniform charge distribution, adsorption energies, and catalytic activity. Here, using ammonia decomposition on a ruthenium cluster as a model system, we develop a transferable multiscale framework integrating density functional theory, group additivity (GA), Brønsted-Evans-Polanyi scaling, and microkinetic modeling to predict EF-dependent activity across nonuniform cluster sites. Across sites and fields, the nitrogen adsorption energy (E N ) emerges as the governing descriptor, yielding robust volcano relationships whose optimum shifts systematically with field: negative fields strengthen N binding via electron accumulation, while positive fields weaken N binding via charge depletion, moving the optimal E N toward weaker binding. Microkinetic analysis shows that N≡N bond formation remains the key kinetic bottleneck over most conditions; positive fields lower the effective barrier and, critically, increase the fraction of near-optimal active sites, leading to a net enhancement in overall activity relative to zero-field and negative-field cases. By capturing EF- and site-dependent energetics with high accuracy and low computational cost, this GA-embedded multi-scale simulation workflow provides a physically interpretable route to predict and design field-enhanced nanocatalysis.

ammonia decomposition↗

AquaMEND: Reconciling multiple impacts of salinization on soil carbon biogeochemistry

Soil salinization, exacerbated by climate change, poses a global threat to coastal ecosystem function and soil quality. Salinity influences carbon cycling through direct effects on microbial activity and indirect alterations to soil physicochemical properties including cation exchange, pH, and soil organic carbon availability. Current models inadequately represent these complexities, relying on linear reduction functions that overlook specific physicochemical changes induced by salinity. To address this gap, we propose an integrated model framework, AquaMEND, that combines microbial-explicit carbon decomposition and geochemical models. This model allows cation exchange and surface complexation processes to capture solute chemistry and nutrient availability in soils upon saltwater intrusion. Using response functions that capture salinity impacts on both salt-sensitive and salt-resistant microbial processes, AquaMEND simulates how the abiotic and biotic mechanisms work individually and collectively to regulate organic and inorganic pools and fluxes. Here, the parallel structure of aqueous and non-aqueous phases, together with microbial functions, result in a versatile model for solving dynamic coupling of organics, minerals and microbes under various environmental settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗