Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Response surface model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

The development of the DAST I remotely piloted research vehicle for flight testing an active flutter suppression control system

The development of the DAST I (drones for aerodynamic and structural testing) remotely piloted research vehicle is described. The DAST I is a highly modified BQM-34E/F Firebee II Supersonic Aerial Target incorporating a swept supercritical wing designed to flutter within the vehicle's flight envelope. The predicted flutter and rigid body characteristics are presented. A description of the analysis and design of an active flutter suppression control system (FSS) designed to increase the flutter boundary of the DAST wing (ARW-1) by a factor of 20% is given. The design and development of the digital remotely augmented primary flight control system and on-board analog backup control system is presented. An evaluation of the near real-time flight flutter testing methods is made by comparing results of five flutter testing techniques on simulated DAST I flutter data. The development of the DAST ARW-1 state variable model used to generate time histories of simulated accelerometer responses is presented. This model uses control surface commands and a Dryden model gust as inputs. The feasibility of the concept of extracting open loop flutter characteristics from closed loop FSS responses was examined. It was shown that open loop characteristics can be determined very well from closed loop subcritical responses.

Grose, D. L.↗

Isolating the Surface Type Influence on Arctic Cloud Properties

In response to anthropogenic climate change, substantial declines in sea ice have been observed. An urgent question is whether and how clouds respond to the changing Arctic surface. Due to the important radiative influence of clouds, the response of clouds to sea ice cover change constitutes a potentially important climate feedback within the Arctic. The sign of this feedback is strongly influenced by the seasonality of the cloud response to sea ice loss. Given the importance of this phenomenon, previous research focused on using observations of inter-annual variability to quantify the cloud-sea ice relationship. However, the reliance on inter-annual variability to assess the covariance between clouds and sea ice make it challenging to control for the influence of large-scale meteorology on the clouds. We have devised an approach that applies an in situ, airborne observational strategy to quantify the influence of surface type on Arctic clouds to satellite data. Our event-based method composites cloud property differences for ocean, marginal ice zone, and sea ice surface types for >5000 MIZ crossing events. We find that cloud properties in non-summer months below ~1.5 km are influenced by surface type such that greater cloud fraction and water content are found over ocean relative to sea ice regions. Results are statistically significantly at the 95% confidence level. During summer, the surface type does not influence the cloud properties. The primary cause of the surface type dependent cloud property differences is the thermodynamic profiles differences that occur between the two surface types: namely, ocean footprints are warmer, moister, have more positive surface turbulent fluxes and are less stable than their sea ice counterparts. We find that the differences in thermodynamic profiles by surface type that correspond to the cloud property differences also explains a significant portion of the variability across events. Our analysis provides evidence that the influence of surface type on cloud properties fundamentally occurs due to the inherent surface temperature differences between the surface types. Significant surface type influences on cloud properties are only found in the presence of surface temperature differences between the surface types and only non-summer months meet this criterion. A conceptual model of this process is as follows, fundamental properties of the ocean and sea ice surface types (e.g., surface albedo, heat capacity/thermal inertia, surface roughness, and thermal conductance) lead to systematic differences in the surface temperature by surface type. In response to this surface temperature difference, atmosphere boundary layer processes (including turbulent mixing and radiation) communicate the surface temperature differences to the lower atmosphere driving the greater stability over sea ice than ocean. These differences in the background thermodynamic state profiles between the surface types yield atmospheric conditions that are more conducive to cloud development over ocean than sea ice. The details of these boundary layer processes are sensitive to the surface type but may not be fundamental to the resulting thermodynamic structure and cloud differences. Thus, our results indicate that to accurately model that cloud response to sea ice loss in climate models the surface type properties that yield the systematic differences in ocean and sea ice temperature (e.g., surface albedo, surface turbulent fluxes parameters, and thermal conductance) must be accurately represented.

Arctic radiation budget↗

Leveraging Pre-storm Soil Moisture Estimates for Enhanced Land Surface Model Calibration in Ungauged Hydrologic Basins

Despite long-standing efforts, hydrologists still lack robust tools for calibrating land surface model (LSM) streamflow estimates within ungauged basins. Using surface soil moisture estimates from the Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, precipitation observations, and streamflow gauge measurements for 617 medium-scale (200-10,000 km2) basins in the contiguous United States, we measure the temporal (Spearman) rank correlation between antecedent (i.e., pre-storm) surface soil moisture (ASM) and the storm-scale runoff coefficient (RC; the fraction of storm-scale precipitation accumulation converted into streamflow). In humid and semi-humid basins, this rank correlation is shown to be sufficiently strong to allow for the substitution of storm-scale RC observations (available only in basins that are both lightly regulated and gauged) with high-quality ASM values (available quasi-globally from L4_SM) in streamflow calibration procedures. Using this principle, we define a new, basin-wise LSM streamflow calibration approach based on L4_SM alone and successfully apply it to identify LSM configurations that produce a high rank correlation with observed RC. However, since the approach cannot detect RC bias, it is less successful in identifying LSM configurations with low mean-absolute error. Plain Text Summary Accurately forecasting the fraction of rainfall that runs off into streams, as opposed to infiltrates into the soil, is critical for flash-flood prediction, water-resource monitoring, and tracking the transport of nutrients from agricultural fields into local waterways. Such forecasting is typically performed by hydrologic models that attempt to represent the physical processes responsible for surface runoff generation. However, to provide accurate streamflow forecasts, these models typically need to be calibrated against actual streamflow observations. This is problematic given the relatively poor, and declining, global availability of stream gauges. This paper presents a novel model calibration strategy that uses soil moisture from remote sensing and numerical modeling in place of streamflow observations during calibration. This transition has significant practical advantages because, unlike streamflow observations, the soil moisture data are continuously available across space. Our results demonstrate that this new approach can significantly improve hydrologic models within humid and semi-humid basins lacking sufficient ground-based instrumentation for traditional streamflow calibration.

hydrologic models↗

Microphysics, Radiation and Surface Processes in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model

The response of cloud systems to their environment is an important link in a chain of processes responsible for monsoons, frontal depression, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and other climate variations (e.g., 30-60 day intra-seasonal oscillations). Numerical models of cloud properties provide essential insights into the interactions of clouds with each other, with their surroundings, and with land and ocean surfaces. Significant advances are currently being made in the modeling of rainfall and rain-related cloud processes, ranging in scales from the very small up to the simulation of an extensive population of raining cumulus clouds in a tropical- or midlatitude-storm environment. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a multi-dimensional nonhydrostatic dynamic/microphysical cloud resolving model. It has been used to simulate many different mesoscale convective systems that occurred in various geographic locations. In this paper, recent GCE model improvements (microphysics, radiation and surface processes) will be described as well as their impact on the development of precipitation events from various geographic locations. The performance of these new physical processes will be examined by comparing the model results with observations. In addition, the explicit interactive processes between cloud, radiation and surface processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Co-variation of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Models and Satellite Observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates.There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5)simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 % K for simulations and 3-4 % K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Nio Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (greater than or equal to 75 precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is 13-15%K for GPCP and 5%K for models while trends in P are 2.4% decade for GPCP, 0.6% decade for CMIP5 and 0.9decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

surface temperature↗

The topographic effect on spectral response from nadir-pointing sensors

It is difficult to interpret multispectral Landsat earth resources data in areas of rugged and mountainous terrain because of the topographic effect on the sensor response. The objectives of this study were to examine and quantify the topographic effect on the sensor response from a uniform sand surface, to assess a simple theoretical incidence model for modeling the radiance from the surface, and to simulate Landsat sensor response due to the topographic effect. A field experiment was designed to collect data from a large range of slope angles and aspects at a range of solar elevations, using a hand-held radiometer. Analysis of these data showed that the magnitude of the topographic effect varied as a function of the solar elevation, the azimuthal orientation of the slope, and the slope inclination. The field measured variations in spectral response were found to have generally strong correlations with the theoretical model, and it was shown that the applicability of the Lambertian assumption varied within and between data sets. It is concluded that if slope angle, aspect, and solar zenith angle and azimuth are known, a technique incorporating a model to reduce the topographic effect prior to multispectral classification may be developed.

Holben, B. N.↗

A concept for adaptive performance optimization on commercial transport aircraft

An adaptive control method is presented for the minimization of drag during flight for transport aircraft. The minimization of drag is achieved by taking advantage of the redundant control capability available in the pitch axis, with the horizontal tail used as the primary surface and symmetric deflection of the ailerons and cruise flaps used as additional controls. The additional control surfaces are excited with sinusoidal signals, while the altitude and velocity loops are closed with guidance and control laws. A model of the throttle response as a function of the additional control surfaces is formulated and the parameters in the model are estimated from the sensor measurements using a least squares estimation method. The estimated model is used to determine the minimum drag positions of the control surfaces. The method is presented for the optimization of one and two additional control surfaces. The adaptive control method is extended to optimize rate of climb with the throttle fixed. Simulations that include realistic disturbances are presented, as well as the results of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis that shows the effects of changing the disturbance environment and the excitation signal parameters.

Jackson, Michael R.↗

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral rheology in a sphere

An earth model is considered whose rheology is described by a stress train relation similar to that which seems to fit the laboratory data resulting from constant strain rate and creep experiments on polycrystalline halite and granite. The response of the model to a surface load is studied. It is found that the displacement and the creep are weakly dependent on the wavenumber and that the strain energy is concentrated in the low wavenumber and coherent over large regions.

Caputo, M.↗

Variable Complexity Optimization of Composite Structures

The use of several levels of modeling in design has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. The work under the grant focused on developing variable complexity modeling strategies with emphasis on response surface techniques. Applications included design of plates with discontinuities subject to uncertainty in material properties and geometry, design of stiffened composite plates for improved damage tolerance, and the use of response surfaces for fitting weights obtained by structural optimization.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

Variable Complexity Optimization of Composite Structures

The use of several levels of modeling in design has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. The work under the grant focused on developing variable complexity modeling strategies with emphasis on response surface techniques. Applications included design of stiffened composite plates for improved damage tolerance, the use of response surfaces for fitting weights obtained by structural optimization, and design against uncertainty using response surface techniques.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

SVD analysis of Aura TES spectral residuals

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis is both a powerful diagnostic tool and an effective method of noise filtering. We present the results of an SVD analysis of an ensemble of spectral residuals acquired in September 2004 from a 16-orbit Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) Global Survey and compare them to alternative methods such as zonal averages. In particular, the technique highlights issues such as the orbital variation of instrument response and incompletely modeled effects of surface emissivity and atmospheric composition.

spectra↗

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Response to Surface Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations With Uniform Thermal Forcing

While many modeling studies have attempted to estimate how tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is impacted by climate change, the multitude of analysis techniques and methodologies have resulted in varying conclusions. Simplified models may be able to help overcome this problem. Radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) model simulations have been used in various configurations to study fundamental aspects of Earth's climate. While many RCE modeling studies have focused on TC genesis, intensification, and size, limited work has been done using RCE to study TC precipitation. Here, in this study, the response of TC precipitation to sea surface temperature (SST) change is analyzed in global Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) aquaplanet simulations run with Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project protocols, with the addition of planetary rotation. We expect that the insight gained about how TC precipitation responds to SST warming will help predict how TCs in the real world respond to climate change. In the CAM RCE simulations, the warmer SST simulations have less TCs on average, but the TCs tend to be larger in outer size and more intense. As simulation SST increases, more extreme precipitation rates occur within TCs, and more of the TC precipitation comes from these extreme rates. For extreme (99th percentile) TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity increases dominate the 8.6% per K increase, while TC outer size changes have little impact. For accumulated TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity contributions are still the majority, but TC outer size changes also contribute to the 6.6% per K increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved Representation of Atmospheric Dynamics in CMIP6 Models Removes Climate Sensitivity Dependence on Hadley Cell Climatological Extent

The persistent inter-model spread in the response of global mean surface temperature to increased CO. (known as the “Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity”, or “ECS”) is a crucial problem across model generations. This work examines the influence of the models’ present-day atmospheric circulation climatologies, and the accompanying climatological cloud radiative effects, in explaining that spread. We analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and _nd that they simulate a more poleward, and thus more realistic, edge of the Hadley Circulation (HC) in the SouthernHemisphere than the CMIP5 models, although the climatological shortwave cloud radiative effects are similar in the two generations of models. A few CMIP5 models with extreme equatorward biases in the HC edge exhibited high ECS due to strong Southern midlatitude shortwave cloud radiative warming in response to climate change, suggesting an ECS dependence on HC position. We find that such constraint no longer holds for the CMIP6 models, due to absence of models with extreme HC climatologies. In spite of this, however, the CMIP6 models show an increased spread in ECS, with more models in the high ECS range. Additionally, an improved representation of the climatological jet dynamics does not lead to a new emergent constraint in the CMIP6 models either.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity↗

Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2 - Simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model

The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

Li, Peng↗

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

The feasibility of extended and long-range weather prediction by means of global atmospheric models was studied. A number of computer experiments were conducted at GISS with the GISS global general circulation model. Topics discussed include atmospheric response to sea-surface temperature anomalies, and monthly mean forecast experiments with the global model.

Spar, J.↗

Mantle viscosity - A comparison of models from postglacial rebound and from the geoid, plate driving forces, and advected heat flux

Models of the radial variation of effective viscosity inferred from the earth's response to surface loads associated with Pleistocene deglaciation are compared to structures inferred from models of geodynamic phenomena associated with convection: the geoid, plate-driving forces, and advected heat flux. While observations of the earth's response to surface loads do not have sufficient resolution to justify more than two viscous layers, adequately matching the observed long-wavelength geoid anomalies associated with density contrasts in the lower mantle (inferred from seismic tomography) and in the upper mantle (inferred from a model of subducted slabs) requires more structure. It is possible to explain the geoid, observed plate velocities, the advected heat flux in the lower mantle, and relative sea-level variations in oceanic regions, all with a mantle with a high-viscosity/elastic lid, an asthenospheric channel of 2 x 10 exp 19 Pa s from 100 to 400-km depth, a 6 x 10 exp 20 Pa s transition zone, and a lower mantle of 6 x 10 exp 21 Pa s. The uplift history of Australia, Fennoscandia, and Laurentia can be explained with an asthenospheric viscosity less than a factor of 10 higher. Lateral variations in lower mantle viscosity are not required. Transient creep appears to be unimportant for the recent response-to-surface loads from Pleistocene deglaciation.

Hager, Bradford H.↗

Daily evapotranspiration changes during heatwaves at 32 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides partitioned evapotranspiration (ET, the combined loss of water from soil and plant surfaces) anomalies during heatwave events—soil evaporation (E) and transpiration (T)—for 268 heatwave events across 32 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites in the contiguous United States from 2019–2021. Using an ensemble of four high-frequency turbulence methods (Flux-variance Similarity, Conditional Eddy Covariance [CEC], CEC with Water-Use Efficiency, and Conditional Eddy Accumulation; see Zahn and Bou-Zeid 2024), half-hourly transpiration-to-evapotranspiration (T/ET) ratios were derived from 20 hertz (Hz, cycles per second) eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor (H₂O) concentrations. The dataset spans six vegetation types including evergreen and deciduous forests, grasslands, cultivated crops, shrublands, and emergent herbaceous wetlands. Data Package Contents: The dataset includes a single CSV (comma-separated values) file containing daily anomalies (deviations from baseline conditions) for transpiration (Delta_T), evaporation (Delta_E), total evapotranspiration (Delta_ET), and T/ET ratio (Delta_T_ET) during each day of identified heatwave events. The file also includes site codes, dates, heatwave event identifiers, and day-of-heatwave indicators. The CSV file can be opened with spreadsheet software (Microsoft Excel, Google Sheets) or programming environments (Python, R, MATLAB). This resource enables researchers to investigate ecosystem-specific responses to thermal extremes, validate land surface model partitioning of ET fluxes, and examine feedbacks between water cycling and surface energy balance during heatwaves. The dataset is particularly valuable for studies linking vegetation hydraulic strategies to climate resilience, as it captures the divergent responses of shallow-rooted versus deep-rooted ecosystems. Potential applications include improving drought early warning systems, informing irrigation management strategies, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of land-atmosphere interactions under extreme heat conditions.

Day of Heatwave↗