Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Reliability model reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Weibull-Based Stochastic Simulation of Mud-Crack Damage Formation in an Environmental Barrier Coating

The integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to simulate the formation of mudflat-cracks from thermomechanical loading on a multi-layered Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) system deposited on a ceramic substrate. FEAMAC/CARES combines MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code/Generalized Method of Cells) multiscale composite micromechanics code with CARES/Life probabilistic multiaxial failure criteria code and Abaqusfinite element analysis. In this work, step function elastic modulus reduction of randomly damaged finite elements was used to represent discrete cracking events. The use of many small-sized low-aspect-ratio finite elements enabled the depiction of crack boundaries and formation of mudflat patterned damage. Demonstrated examples include finite element models of button-sized disk-shaped 3-D specimen, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. All models were subjected to a progressive cool down from 1300 degrees Centigrade to room temperature. Mudflat crack damage in the coating system resulted from the buildup of residual tensile stresses between the individual material constituents from thermal expansion mismatch. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution characterized the coating layer stochastic strength response and the effect of the Weibull modulus on the formation of damage was studied here.

Residual Tensile Stress↗
NASA NTRS2002

Natural Atmospheric Environment Model Development for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recently began development of a new reusable launch vehicle. The program office is located at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and is called the Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (2GRLV). The purpose of the program is to improve upon the safety and reliability of the first generation reusable launch vehicle, the Space Shuttle. Specifically, the goals are to reduce the risk of crew loss to less than 1-in-10,000 missions and decreased costs by a factor of 10 to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched to low Earth orbit. The program is currently in the very early stages of development and many two-stage vehicle concepts will be evaluated. Risk reduction activities are also taking place. These activities include developing new technologies and advancing current technologies to be used by the vehicle. The Environments Group at MSFC is tasked by the 2GRLV Program to develop and maintain an extensive series of analytical tools and environmental databases which enable it to provide detailed atmospheric studies in support of structural, guidance, navigation and control, and operation of the 2GRLV.

Roberts, Barry C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Microfabricated Involute-Foil Regenerator for Stirling Engines

A segmented involute-foil regenerator has been designed, microfabricated and tested in an oscillating-flow rig with excellent results. During the Phase I effort, several approximations of parallel-plate regenerator geometry were chosen as potential candidates for a new microfabrication concept. Potential manufacturers and processes were surveyed. The selected concept consisted of stacked segmented-involute-foil disks (or annular portions of disks), originally to be microfabricated from stainless-steel via the LiGA (lithography, electroplating, and molding) process and EDM. During Phase II, re-planning of the effort led to test plans based on nickel disks, microfabricated via the LiGA process, only. A stack of nickel segmented-involute-foil disks was tested in an oscillating-flow test rig. These test results yielded a performance figure of merit (roughly the ratio of heat transfer to pressure drop) of about twice that of the 90 percent random fiber currently used in small approx.100 W Stirling space-power convertors-in the Reynolds Number range of interest (50 to 100). A Phase III effort is now underway to fabricate and test a segmented-involute-foil regenerator in a Stirling convertor. Though funding limitations prevent optimization of the Stirling engine geometry for use with this regenerator, the Sage computer code will be used to help evaluate the engine test results. Previous Sage Stirling model projections have indicated that a segmented-involute-foil regenerator is capable of improving the performance of an optimized involute-foil engine by 6 to 9 percent; it is also anticipated that such involute-foil geometries will be more reliable and easier to manufacture with tight-tolerance characteristics, than random-fiber or wire-screen regenerators. Beyond the near-term Phase III regenerator fabrication and engine testing, other goals are (1) fabrication from a material suitable for high temperature Stirling operation (up to 850 C for current engines; up to 1200 C for a potential engine-cooler for a Venus mission), and (2) reduction of the cost of the fabrication process to make it more suitable for terrestrial applications of segmented involute foils. Past attempts have been made to use wrapped foils to approximate the large theoretical figures of merit projected for parallel plates. Such metal wrapped foils have never proved very successful, apparently due to the difficulties of fabricating wrapped-foils with uniform gaps and maintaining the gaps under the stress of time-varying temperature gradients during start-up and shut-down, and relatively-steady temperature gradients during normal operation. In contrast, stacks of involute-foil disks, with each disk consisting of multiple involute-foil segments held between concentric circular ribs, have relatively robust structures. The oscillating-flow rig tests of the segmented-involute-foil regenerator have demonstrated a shift in regenerator performance strongly in the direction of the theoretical performance of ideal parallel-plate regenerators.

Tew, Roy↗
NASA NTRS1994

Access to space study

This report summarizes the results of a comprehensive NASA in-house study to identify and assess alternate approaches to access to space through the year 2030, and to select and recommend a preferred cause of action. The goals of the study were to identify the best vehicles and transportation architectures to make major reductions in the cost of space transportation (at least 50%), while at the same time increasing safety for flight crews by at least an order of magnitude. In addition, vehicle reliability was to exceed 0.98 percent, and, as important, the robustness, pad time, turnaround time, and other aspects of operability were to be vastly improved. This study examined three major optional architectures: (1) retain and upgrade the Space Shuttle and expendable launch vehicles; (2) develop new expendable vehicles using conventional technologies and transition from current vehicles beginning in 2005; and (3) develop new reusable vehicles using advanced technology, and transition from current vehicles beginning in 2008. The launch-needs, mission model utilized for for the study was based upon today's projection of civil, defense, and commercial mission payload requirements.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗
NASA NTRS2015

Investigation of Asymmetric Thrust Detection with Demonstration in a Real-Time Simulation Testbed

The purpose of this effort is to develop, demonstrate, and evaluate three asymmetric thrust detection approaches to aid in the reduction of asymmetric thrust-induced aviation accidents. This paper presents the results from that effort and their evaluation in simulation studies, including those from a real-time flight simulation testbed. Asymmetric thrust is recognized as a contributing factor in several Propulsion System Malfunction plus Inappropriate Crew Response (PSM+ICR) aviation accidents. As an improvement over the state-of-the-art, providing annunciation of asymmetric thrust to alert the crew may hold safety benefits. For this, the reliable detection and confirmation of asymmetric thrust conditions is required. For this work, three asymmetric thrust detection methods are presented along with their results obtained through simulation studies. Representative asymmetric thrust conditions are modeled in simulation based on failure scenarios similar to those reported in aviation incident and accident descriptions. These simulated asymmetric thrust scenarios, combined with actual aircraft operational flight data, are then used to conduct a sensitivity study regarding the detection capabilities of the three methods. Additional evaluation results are presented based on pilot-in-the-loop simulation studies conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) flight simulation testbed. Data obtained from this flight simulation facility are used to further evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the asymmetric thrust detection approaches. Generally, the asymmetric thrust conditions are correctly detected and confirmed.

aircraft safety↗
NASA NTRS2015

Investigation of Asymmetric Thrust Detection with Demonstration in a Real-Time Simulation Testbed

The purpose of this effort is to develop, demonstrate, and evaluate three asymmetric thrust detection approaches to aid in the reduction of asymmetric thrust-induced aviation accidents. This paper presents the results from that effort and their evaluation in simulation studies, including those from a real-time flight simulation testbed. Asymmetric thrust is recognized as a contributing factor in several Propulsion System Malfunction plus Inappropriate Crew Response (PSM+ICR) aviation accidents. As an improvement over the state-of-the-art, providing annunciation of asymmetric thrust to alert the crew may hold safety benefits. For this, the reliable detection and confirmation of asymmetric thrust conditions is required. For this work, three asymmetric thrust detection methods are presented along with their results obtained through simulation studies. Representative asymmetric thrust conditions are modeled in simulation based on failure scenarios similar to those reported in aviation incident and accident descriptions. These simulated asymmetric thrust scenarios, combined with actual aircraft operational flight data, are then used to conduct a sensitivity study regarding the detection capabilities of the three methods. Additional evaluation results are presented based on pilot-in-the-loop simulation studies conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) flight simulation testbed. Data obtained from this flight simulation facility are used to further evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the asymmetric thrust detection approaches. Generally, the asymmetric thrust conditions are correctly detected and confirmed.

gas turbine engines↗
NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Asymmetric Thrust Detection with Demonstration in a Real-Time Simulation Testbed

The purpose of this effort is to develop, demonstrate, and evaluate three asymmetric thrust detection approaches to aid in the reduction of asymmetric thrust-induced aviation accidents. This paper presents the results from that effort and their evaluation in simulation studies, including those from a real-time flight simulation testbed. Asymmetric thrust is recognized as a contributing factor in several Propulsion System Malfunction plus Inappropriate Crew Response (PSM+ICR) aviation accidents. As an improvement over the state-of-the-art, providing annunciation of asymmetric thrust to alert the crew may hold safety benefits. For this, the reliable detection and confirmation of asymmetric thrust conditions is required. For this work, three asymmetric thrust detection methods are presented along with their results obtained through simulation studies. Representative asymmetric thrust conditions are modeled in simulation based on failure scenarios similar to those reported in aviation incident and accident descriptions. These simulated asymmetric thrust scenarios, combined with actual aircraft operational flight data, are then used to conduct a sensitivity study regarding the detection capabilities of the three methods. Additional evaluation results are presented based on pilot-in-the-loop simulation studies conducted in the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) flight simulation testbed. Data obtained from this flight simulation facility are used to further evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the asymmetric thrust detection approaches. Generally, the asymmetric thrust conditions are correctly detected and confirmed.

propulsion system performance↗
NASA NTRS1975

Simulation of aircraft crash and its validation

A joint FAA/NASA program is discussed which is aimed at developing a reliable technology for the design of crashworthy light aircraft. This program encompasses the development of analytical methods, the definition of a survivable crash envelope, and the design of improved seat and restraint systems. A facility for full-scale crash-simulation testing is described along with the test method and results of five full-scale crash tests of twin-engine light aircraft. The major goals of the analytical portion of the program are outlined, including the development and validation of the analytical technique using simplified structural specimens that approximate aircraft components, as well as the mathematical modeling of the complete airframe and its subsequent dynamic analysis by substructuring and matrix reduction techniques.

Alfaro-Bou, E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Air Circulation and Heat Exchange Under Reduced Pressures

Heat exchange rates decrease non-linearly with reductions in atmospheric pressure. This decrease creates risk of thermal stress (elevated leaf temperatures) for plants under reduced pressures. Forced convection (fans) significantly increases heat exchange rate under almost all pressures except below ~ 10 kPa. Plant cultivation techniques under reduced pressures will require forced convection. The cooling curve technique is a reliable means of assessing the influence of environmental variables like pressure and gravity on gas exchange of plant. These results represent the extremes of gas exchange conditions for simple systems under variable pressures. In reality, dense plant canopies will exhibit responses in between these extremes. More research is needed to understand the dependence of forced convection on atmospheric pressure. The overall thermal balance model should include latent and radiative exchange components.

Rygalov, V.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Preliminary large-eddy simulations of flow around a NACA 4412 airfoil using unstructured grids

Large-eddy simulation (LES) has matured to the point where application to complex flows is desirable. The extension to higher Reynolds numbers leads to an impractical number of grid points with existing structured-grid methods. Furthermore, most real world flows are rather difficult to represent geometrically with structured grids. Unstructured-grid methods offer a release from both of these constraints. However, just as it took many years for structured-grid methods to be well understood and reliable tools for LES, unstructured-grid methods must be carefully studied before we can expect them to attain their full potential. In the past two years, important building blocks have been put into place making possible a careful study of LES on unstructured grids. The first building block was an efficient mesh generator which allowed the placement of points according to smooth variation of physical length scales. This variation of length scales is in all three directions independently, which allows a large reduction in points when compared to structured-grid methods, which can only vary length scales in one direction at a time. The second building block was the development of a dynamic model appropriate for unstructured grids. The principle obstacle was the development of an unstructured-grid filtering operator. In the past year, some of the new filters developed by Jansen have been implemented into a highly parallelized finite element code based on the Galerkin/least-squares finite element method. We have chosen the NACA 4412 airfoil at maximum lift as the first simulation for a variety of reasons. First, it is a problem of significant interest since it would be the first LES of an aircraft component. Second, this flow has been the subject of three experimental studies. The third reason for considering this flow is the variety of flow features which provide an important test of the dynamic model. Only the dynamic model can be expected to perform satisfactorily in this variety of situations: from the laminar regions where it must not modify the flow at all to the turbulent boundary layers and wake where it must represent a wide variety of subgrid-scale structures. The flow configuration we have chosen is that of Wadcock (1987) at Reynolds number based on chord Re(sub c) = u(sub infinity)c/v = 1.64 x 10(exp 6), Mach number M = 0.2, and 12 deg angle of attack.

Jansen, Kenneth↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting river turbidity in Pine Island Bayou using machine learning techniques coupled with variational mode decomposition

Elevated turbidity levels pose significant public health risks by facilitating the transport of harmful pollutants, including metals, organic compounds, and pathogenic microorganisms into the surface water. These conditions create serious challenges for public recreational water use and drinking water treatment, leading to economic losses and health risks. This study utilizes water monitoring data in Pine Island Bayou, Texas, and develops a Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) model to predict turbidity using Attention-based Gated Recurrent Units with Encoder-Decoder (AT-GRU-ED) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), coupled with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). Compared to the model without VMD, the model demonstrates satisfactory 72-hour turbidity prediction performance, achieving MAEs of 2.60 and 3.29 NTU (reductions of 53% and 58%), RMSEs of 21.08 and 31.49 NTU (reductions of 82% and 80%), and R² values of 0.96 and 0.84 on the validation and test sets, respectively. Feature importance analysis reveals that water temperature is the dominant factor influencing seasonal turbidity patterns, while real-time hourly rainfall significantly contributes to short-term variability. Turbidity typically peaks within 48 hours after rainfall events due to lagged effects from surface runoff and upstream flow. Findings suggest suspending recreational water use and water supply pumping for three days after heavy rainfall can benefit public health and improve water treatment processes. Discharges above 100 m3/s are found to accelerate sediment dilution and transport, reducing turbidity levels more quickly after the peak. In conclusion, the proposed model demonstrates reliable 72-hour turbidity prediction, supporting decision-making for water treatment plant operations and providing early warning for public recreational water use.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1992

Electric propulsion system technology

The work performed in fiscal year (FY) 1991 under the Propulsion Technology Program RTOP (Research and Technology Objectives and Plans) No. (55) 506-42-31 for Low-Thrust Primary and Auxiliary Propulsion technology development is described. The objectives of this work fall under two broad categories. The first of these deals with the development of ion engines for primary propulsion in support of solar system exploration. The second with the advancement of steady-state magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thruster technology at 100 kW to multimegawatt input power levels. The major technology issues for ion propulsion are demonstration of adequate engine life at the 5 to 10 kW power level and scaling ion engines to power levels of tens to hundreds of kilowatts. Tests of a new technique in which the decelerator grid of a three-grid ion accelerator system is biased negative of neutralizer common potential in order to collect facility induced charge-exchange ions are described. These tests indicate that this SAND (Screen, Accelerator, Negative Decelerator) configuration may enable long duration ion engine endurance tests to be performed at vacuum chamber pressures an order of magnitude higher than previously possible. The corresponding reduction in pumping speed requirements enables endurance tests of 10 kW class ion engines to be performed within the resources of existing technology programs. The results of a successful 5,000-hr endurance of a xenon hollow cathode operating at an emission current of 25 A are described, as well as the initial tests of hollow cathodes operating on a mixture of argon and 3 percent nitrogen. Work performed on the development of carbon/carbon grids, a multi-orifice hollow cathode, and discharge chamber erosion reduction through the addition of nitrogen are also described. Critical applied-field MPD thruster technical issues remain to be resolved, including demonstration of reliable steady-state operation at input powers of hundreds to thousands of kilowatts, achievement of thruster efficiency and specific impulse levels required for missions of interest, and demonstration of adequate engine life at these input power, efficiency, and specific impulse levels. To address these issues we have designed, built, and tested a 100 kW class, radiation-cooled applied-field MPD thruster and a unique dual-beam thrust stand that enables separate measurements of the applied- and self-field thrust components. We have also initiated the development of cathode thermal and plasma sheath models that will eventually be used to guide the experimental program. In conjunction with the cathode modeling, a new cathode test facility is being constructed. This facility will support the study of cathode thermal behavior and erosion mechanisms, the diagnosis of the near-cathode plasma and the development and endurance testing of new, high-current cathode designs. To facilitate understanding of electrode surface phenomenon, we have implemented a telephoto technique to obtain photographs of the electrodes during engine operation. In order to reduce the background vacuum tank pressure during steady-state engine operation in order to obtain high fidelity anode thermal data, we have developed and are evaluating a gas-dynamic diffuser. A review of experience with alkali metal propellants for MPD thrusters led to the conclusion that alkali metals, particularly lithium, offer the potential for significant engine performance and lifetime improvements. These propellants are also condensible at room temperature, substantially reducing test facility pumping requirements. The most significant systems-level issue is the potential for spacecraft contamination. Subsequent experimental and theoretical efforts should be directed toward verifying the performance and lifetime gains and characterizing the thruster flow field to assess its impact on spacecraft surfaces. Consequently, we have begun the design and development of a new facility to study engine operation with alkali metal propellants.

Brophy, John R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1986

The 60 GHz IMPATT diode development

The objective is to develop 60 GHz IMPATT diodes suitable for communications applications. The performance goals of the 60 GHz IMPATT is 1W CW output power with a conversion efficiency of 15 percent and 10-year lifetime. The final design of the 60 GHz IMPATT structure evolved from computer simulations performed at the University of Michigan. The initial doping profile, involving a hybrid double-drift (HDD) design, was derived from a drift-diffusion model that used the static velocity-field characteristics for GaAs. Unfortunately, the model did not consider the effects of velocity undershoot and delay of the avalanche process due to energy relaxation. Consequently, the initial devices were oscillating at a much lower frequency than anticipated. With a revised simulation program that included the two effects given above, a second HDD profile was generated and was used as a basis for fabrication efforts. In the area of device fabrication, significant progress was made in epitaxial growth and characterization, wafer processing, and die assembly. The organo-metallic chemical vapor deposition (OMCVD) was used. Starting with a baseline X-Band IMPATT technology, appropriate processing steps were modified to satisfy the device requirements at V-Band. In terms of efficiency and reliability, the device requirements dictate a reduction in its series resistance and thermal resistance values. Qualitatively, researchers were able to reduce the diodes' series resistance by reducing the thickness of the N+ GaAs substrate used in its fabrication.

Dat, Rovindra↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimation of Model Error Variances During Data Assimilation

Data assimilation is all about understanding the error characteristics of the data and models that are used in the assimilation process. Reliable error estimates are needed to implement observational quality control, bias correction of observations and model fields, and intelligent data selection. Meaningful covariance specifications are obviously required for the analysis as well, since the impact of any single observation strongly depends on the assumed structure of the background errors. Operational atmospheric data assimilation systems still rely primarily on climatological background error covariances. To obtain error estimates that reflect both the character of the flow and the current state of the observing system, it is necessary to solve three problems: (1) how to account for the short-term evolution of errors in the initial conditions; (2) how to estimate the additional component of error caused by model defects; and (3) how to compute the error reduction in the analysis due to observational information. Various approaches are now available that provide approximate solutions to the first and third of these problems. However, the useful accuracy of these solutions very much depends on the size and character of the model errors and the ability to account for them. Model errors represent the real-world forcing of the error evolution in a data assimilation system. Clearly, meaningful model error estimates and/or statistics must be based on information external to the model itself. The most obvious information source is observational, and since the volume of available geophysical data is growing rapidly, there is some hope that a purely statistical approach to model error estimation can be viable. This requires that the observation errors themselves are well understood and quantifiable. We will discuss some of these challenges and present a new sequential scheme for estimating model error variances from observations in the context of an atmospheric data assimilation system.

Dee, Dick↗