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NASA NTRS2015

Orbit Stability of OSIRIS-REx in the Vicinity of Bennu Using a High-Fidelity Solar Radiation Model

The OSIRIS-REx mission (Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security Regolith EXPlorer) is an asteroid sample return mission to Bennu (RQ36) that is scheduled to launch in 2016. The planned science operations precluding the small retrieval involve operations in terminator orbits (orbit plane is perpendicular to the sun). Over longer durations the solar radiation pressure (SRP) perturbs the orbit causing it to precess. Our work involves: modeling high fidelity SRP model to capture the perturbations during attitude changes; design a stable orbit from the high fidelity models to analyze the stability over time.

Williams, Trevor↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacecraft Natural Thermal Environments

During this U.S. Spacesuit Knowledge Capture Program event, Dr. Eugene Ungar presented the background on the Earth and Moon solar, albedo, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) natural thermal environment parameters. He reviewed the interrelationship of the parameters and explore the physically correct method of combining them. Dr. Ungar also presented a sample analysis of a representative case.

Eugene K Ungar↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of CloudSat Radiative Kernels Using ARM and CERES Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis

Despite the widespread use of the radiative kernel technique for studying radiative feedbacks and radiative forcings, there has not been any systematic, observation-based validation of the radiative kernel method. Here, we utilize observed and reanalyzed radiative fluxes and atmospheric profiles from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and ERA5 reanalysis to assess a set of observation-based radiative kernels from CloudSat for six ARM sites. The CloudSat radiative kernels, convoluted with the ERA5 state variables, can almost perfectly reconstruct the monthly anomalies of shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes in ERA5 at the surface (SFC) and top-of atmosphere (TOA) with correlations significantly being greater than 0.95. The biases of kernel-estimated flux anomalies calculated using the ARM-observed state variables can be more than twice as large when compared with the ARM-observed surface flux anomalies and Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) observed anomalies at the TOA. Generally, clouds contribute to most (>60%) of the variance of flux anomalies at Southern Great Plain (SGP), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), and Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), and surface albedo dominates (>69%) the variance of SW flux anomalies at North Slope of Alaska (NSA). The radiative kernels exhibit the lowest correlation (r~[0.55,0.85]) when reconstructing SFC LW flux anomalies at SGP, TWP, and ENA, whose biases are related to the possibility that the kernels may not fully capture the characteristics 47 associated with MJO and ENSO at TWP and the presence of clouds at SGP and ENA.

Radiative kernels↗

NASA NTRS2017

Strategies for SEE Hardness Assurance From Buy-It-And-Fly-It to Bullet Proof

This part of the course first outlines the conventional Single Event Effect (SEE), radiation hardness assurance (RHA) approach, which emphasizes mission success. Next, Dr. Ladbury will discuss the challenges posed by new satellite platforms (e.g., cubesats, nanosats, etc.), where cost and schedule receive emphasis equal to if not greater than mission success. These additional pressures, along with growing demands to reduce size, weight and power, coupled with increased performance, drive many projects toward expanding their use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies. While this may reduce direct parts cost and procurement lead times, it undermines many cost-reduction strategies used for conventional SEE RHA and can make radiation testing and analysis one of the most significant risksor worse, a risk neglected altogether. That section will end with some approaches for restoring balance in the troika of mission success, cost, and schedule. This is captured in SEE RHA as risk management: identify the threat, evaluate the threat, and mitigate the threat.

commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS)↗

NASA NTRS2012

Large Amplitude Whistler Waves and Electron Acceleration in the Earth's Radiation Belts: A Review of STEREO and Wind Observations

One of the critical problems for understanding the dynamics of Earth's radiation belts is determining the physical processes that energize and scatter relativistic electrons. We review measurements from the Wind/Waves and STEREO S/Waves waveform capture instruments of large amplitude whistler-mode waves. These observations have provided strong evidence that large amplitude (100s mV/m) whistler-mode waves are common during magnetically active periods. The large amplitude whistlers have characteristics that are different from typical chorus. They are usually nondispersive and obliquely propagating, with a large longitudinal electric field and significant parallel electric field. We will also review comparisons of STEREO and Wind wave observations with SAMPEX observations of electron microbursts. Simulations show that the waves can result in energization by many MeV and/or scattering by large angles during a single wave packet encounter due to coherent, nonlinear processes including trapping. The experimental observations combined with simulations suggest that quasilinear theoretical models of electron energization and scattering via small-amplitude waves, with timescales of hours to days, may be inadequate for understanding radiation belt dynamics.

Cattell, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2002

Implementation of Adaptive Digital Controllers on Programmable Logic Devices

Much has been made of the capabilities of FPGA's (Field Programmable Gate Arrays) in the hardware implementation of fast digital signal processing (DSP) functions. Such capability also makes and FPGA a suitable platform for the digital implementation of closed loop controllers. There are myriad advantages to utilizing an FPGA for discrete-time control functions which include the capability for reconfiguration when SRAM- based FPGA's are employed, fast parallel implementation of multiple control loops and implementations that can meet space level radiation tolerance in a compact form-factor. Other researchers have presented the notion that a second order digital filter with proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control functionality can be implemented in an FPGA. At Marshall Space Flight Center, the Control Electronics Group has been studying adaptive discrete-time control of motor driven actuator systems using digital signal processor (DSF) devices. Our goal is to create a fully digital, flight ready controller design that utilizes an FPGA for implementation of signal conditioning for control feedback signals, generation of commands to the controlled system, and hardware insertion of adaptive control algorithm approaches. While small form factor, commercial DSP devices are now available with event capture, data conversion, pulse width modulated outputs and communication peripherals, these devices are not currently available in designs and packages which meet space level radiation requirements. Meeting our goals requires alternative compact implementation of such functionality to withstand the harsh environment encountered on spacecraft. Radiation tolerant FPGA's are a feasible option for reaching these goals.

Gwaltney, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Strategies for SEE Hardness Assurance - From Buy-It-And-Fly-It to Bullet Proof

This part of the course first outlines the conventional Single Event Effect (SEE), radiation hardness assurance (RHA) approach, which emphasizes mission success. Next, Dr. Ladbury will discuss the challenges posed by new satellite platforms (e.g., cubesats, nanosats, etc.), where cost and schedule receive emphasis equal to if not greater than mission success. These additional pressures, along with growing demands to reduce size, weight and power, coupled with increased performance, drive many projects toward expanding their use of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies. While this may reduce direct parts cost and procurement lead times, it undermines many cost-reduction strategies used for conventional SEE RHA and can make radiation testing and analysis one of the most significant risks or worse, a risk neglected altogether. That section will end with some approaches for restoring balance in the troika of mission success, cost, and schedule. This is captured in SEE RHA as risk management: identify the threat, evaluate the threat, and mitigate the threat.

commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS)↗

NASA NTRS1980

Noise generation at the side edges of flaps

The recently observed phenomenon of high noise radiation from the side edges of flaps is investigated by way of a two-dimensional model based upon a physical picture of chordwise boundary layer vorticity being swept around the edge by spanwise flow on the flap. The trajectory and resulting noise radiation for a discrete vortex in such a flow is obtained. Further, a mathematical condition for the vortex to be captured by the flow and swept around the edge is derived. The sound generation depends strongly upon the vortex strength and distance from the edge and can be more intense than trailing edge noise in agreement with experimental observations.

Hardin, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

In-Situ Observations of Longitudinal Compression Damage in Carbon-Epoxy Cross Ply Laminates Using Fast Synchrotron Radiation Computed Tomography

The role of longitudinal compressive failure mechanisms in notched cross-ply laminates is studied experimentally with in-situ synchrotron radiation based computed tomography. Carbon/epoxy specimens loaded monotonically in uniaxial compression exhibited a quasi-stable failure process, which was captured with computed tomography scans recorded continuously with a temporal resolutions of 2.4 seconds and a spatial resolution of 1.1 microns per voxel. A detailed chronology of the initiation and propagation of longitudinal matrix splitting cracks, in-plane and out-of-plane kink bands, shear-driven fiber failure, delamination, and transverse matrix cracks is provided with a focus on kink bands as the dominant failure mechanism. An automatic segmentation procedure is developed to identify the boundary surfaces of a kink band. The segmentation procedure enables 3-dimensional visualization of the kink band and conveys the orientation, inclination, and spatial variation of the kink band. The kink band inclination and length are examined using the segmented data revealing tunneling and spatial variations not apparent from studying the 2-dimensional section data.

Bergan, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulations of Jet Noise in Flight Conditions

A campaign of wall-modeled large-eddy simulations (WMLES) using structured curvilinear overlapping grids has been performed with the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software to predict jet noise for single-stream axisymmetric round jets. The simulations address the new Prediction Uncertainty Reduction (PUR) technical challenge within the context of NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology (CST) project. The focus of this effort is to generate a simulation database for single-stream axisymmetric round nozzles at several operating points both for static (no ambient co-flow), and in-flight (M ͚ =0.3 co-flow) conditions. The operating conditions range in jet exit Mach number from 0.38 to 1.1 with nozzle temperature ratios (NTR) from 0.84 to 2.7. The effect of the flight-stream on far-field noise sound spectra is assessed. Comparison of LES predictions to microphone array measurements demonstrate good agreement within the resolved frequency range. A dip in the predicted low frequency noise spectra for observers between 120° and 145° is observed. This dip is smaller for lower Mach numbers and seems to be correlated to the Mach wave radiation angle. The Mach 1.1 jet shows broadband-shock associated noise. While the onset of BBSN appears to be captured correctly in WMLES, some differences in its magnitude and the prominent frequency at which it occurs persist between the experiment and the simulations. The effect of the outer nozzle boundary layer state created by the co-flow is assessed and shows to be important for accurate comparisons with experiments. A change of 2.5dB between a slip-wall condition and a artificially thickened turbulent boundary layer was observed. In addition, simulations were performed with an alternative nozzle geometry that includes a internal plug and has twice the nozzle exit diameter. These two configurations resulted in very comparable spectra which is consistent with experimental observations. A generally stronger deviation from experimental results is observed for in-flight cases compared to static conditions. The applicability and correct usage of acoustic analogies used for far-field propagation with strong turbulent co-flows needs to be investigated more systematically using canonical problems to improve comparisons between experiments and WMLES. This is especially true for coherent noise sources seen in BBSN.

CST↗

NASA NTRS2013

Methods of Fabricating Scintillators with Radioisotopes for Beta Battery Applications

Technology has been developed for a class of self-contained, long-duration power sources called beta batteries, which harvest the energy contained in the radioactive emissions from beta decay isotopes. The new battery is a significant improvement over the conventional phosphor/solar cell concept for converting this energy in three ways. First, the thin phosphor is replaced with a thick scintillator that is transparent to its own emissions. By using a scintillator sufficiently thick to completely stop all the beta particles, efficiency is greatly improved. Second, since the energy of the beta particles is absorbed in the scintillator, the semiconductor photodetector is shielded from radiation damage that presently limits the performance and lifetime of traditional phosphor converters. Finally, instead of a thin film of beta-emitting material, the isotopes are incorporated into the entire volume of the thick scintillator crystal allowing more activity to be included in the converter without self-absorption. There is no chemical difference between radioactive and stable strontium beta emitters such as Sr-90, so the beta emitter can be uniformly distributed throughout a strontium based scintillator crystal. When beta emitter material is applied as a foil or thin film to the surface of a solar cell or even to the surface of a scintillator, much of the radiation escapes due to the geometry, and some is absorbed within the layer itself, leading to inefficient harvesting of the energy. In contrast, if the emitting atoms are incorporated within the scintillator, the geometry allows for the capture and efficient conversion of the energy of particles emitted in any direction. Any gamma rays associated with secondary decays or Bremsstrahlung photons may also be absorbed within the scintillator, and converted to lower energy photons, which will in turn be captured by the photocell or photodiode. Some energy will be lost in this two-stage conversion process (high-energy particle to low-energy photons to electric current). The geometric advantage partially offsets this as well, since the absorption depth of high-energy beta radiation is much larger than the depth of a p-n junction. Thus, in a p-n junction device, much of the radiation is absorbed far away from the junction, and the electron- hole pairs are not all effectively collected. In contrast, with a transparent scintillator the radiation can be converted to light in a larger volume, and all of the light can be collected in the active region of the photodiode. Finally, the new device is more practical because it can be used at much higher power levels without unduly shortening its lifetime. While the crystal structure of scintillators is also subject to radiation damage, their performance is far more tolerant of defects than that of semiconductor junctions. This allows the scintillator- based approach to use both higher energy isotopes and larger quantities of the isotopes. It is projected that this technology has the potential to produce a radioisotope battery with up to twice the efficiency of presently used systems.

Rensing, Noa M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Validation of Improved Broadband Shortwave and Longwave Fluxes Derived From GOES

Broadband (BB) shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes at TOA (Top of Atmosphere) are crucial parameters in the study of climate and can be monitored over large portions of the Earth's surface using satellites. The VISST (Visible Infrared Solar Split-Window Technique) satellite retrieval algorithm facilitates derivation of these parameters from the Geostationery Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). However, only narrowband (NB) fluxes are available from GOES, so this derivation requires use of narrowband-to-broadband (NB-BB) conversion coefficients. The accuracy of these coefficients affects the validity of the derived broadband (BB) fluxes. Most recently, NB-BB fits were re-derived using the NB fluxes from VISST/GOES data with BB fluxes observed by the CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy Budget) instrument aboard Terra, a sun-synchronous polar-orbiting satellite that crosses the equator at 10:30 LT. Subsequent comparison with ARM's (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) BBHRP (Broadband Heating Rate Profile) BB fluxes revealed that while the derived broadband fluxes agreed well with CERES near the Terra overpass times, the accuracy of both LW and SW fluxes decreased farther away from the overpass times. Terra's orbit hampers the ability of the NB-BB fits to capture diurnal variability. To account for this in the LW, seasonal NB-BB fits are derived separately for day and night. Information from hourly SW BB fluxes from the Meteosat-8 Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) is employed to include samples over the complete solar zenith angle (SZA) range sampled by Terra. The BB fluxes derived from these improved NB-BB fits are compared to BB fluxes computed with a radiative transfer model.

Khaiyer, Mandana M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Flexible Electrostatic Technology for Capture and Handling Project

To NASA unfunded & planned missions: This new capability to sense proximity, flexibly align to, and attractively grip and capture practically any object in space without any pre-designed physical features or added sensors or actuators will enable or enhance many of MSFC's strategic emphasis areas in space transportation, and space systems such as: 1. A Flexible Electrostatic gripper can enable the capture, gripping and releasing of an extraterrestrial sample of different minerals or a sample canister (metallic or composite) without requiring a handle or grapple fixture.(B) 2. Flexible self-aligning in-space capture/soft docking or berthing of ISS resupply vehicles, pressurized modules, or nodes for in-space assembly and shielding, radiator, and solar Array deployment for space habitats (C) 3. The flexible electrostatic gripper when combined with a simple steerable extendible boom can grip, position, and release objects of various shapes and materials with low mass and power without any prior handles or physical accommodations or surface contamination for ISS experiment experiments and in-situ repair.(F)(G) 4. The Dexterous Docking concept previously proposed to allow simple commercial resupply ships to station-keep and capture either ISS or an Exploration vehicle for supply or fluid transfer lacked a self-sensing, compliant, soft capture gripper like FETCH that could retract and attach to a CBM. (I) 5. To enable a soft capture and de-orbit of a piece of orbital debris will require self-aligning gripping and holding an object wherever possible (thermal coverings or shields of various materials, radiators, solar arrays, antenna dishes) with little or no residual power while adding either drag or active low level thrust.(K) 6. With the scalability of the FETCH technology, small satellites can be captured and handled or can incorporate FETCH gripper to dock to and handle other small vehicles and larger objects for de-orbiting or mitigating Orbital debris (L) 7. Many of previous MSFC and NASA proposals or concepts can now be realized or simplified by the development of the this initial and future FETCH grippers including commercial resupply, Exploration vehicle assembly, Satellite servicing, and orbital debris removal since a major part of these missions is to align to and capture some handle. Completed Project (2013 - 2014) Flexible Electrostatic Technology for Capture & Handling Project Center Innovation Fund: MSFC CIF Program | Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) For more information visit techport.nasa.gov Some NASA technology projects are smaller (for example SBIR/STTR, NIAC and Center Innovation Fund), and will have less content than other, larger projects. Newly created projects may not sensors or injection of permanent adhesives. With gripping forces estimated between 0.5 and 2.5 pounds per square inch or 70-300 lb./sq. ft. of surface contact, the FETCH can turn-on and turn-off rapidly and repeatedly to enable sample handling, soft docking, in-space assembly, and precision relocation for accurate anchor adhesion.

Keys, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS1991

TRAC based sensing for autonomous rendezvous

The Targeting Reflective Alignment Concept (TRAC) sensor is to be used in an effort to support an Autonomous Rendezvous and Docking (AR&D) flight experiment. The TRAC sensor uses a fixed-focus, fixed-iris CCD camera and a target that is a combination of active and passive components. The system experiment is anticipated to fly in 1994 using two Commercial Experiment Transporters (COMET's). The requirements for the sensor are: bearing error less than or equal to 0.075 deg; bearing error rate less than 0.3 deg/sec; attitude error less than 0.5 deg.; and attitude rate error less than 2.0 deg/sec. The range requirement depends on the range and the range rate of the vehicle. The active component of the target is several 'kilo-bright' LED's that can emit 2500 millicandela with 40 milliwatts of input power. Flashing the lights in a known pattern eliminates background illumination. The system should be able to rendezvous from 300 meters all the way to capture. A question that arose during the presentation: What is the life time of the LED's and their sensitivity to radiation? The LED's should be manufactured to Military Specifications, coated with silicon dioxide, and all other space qualified precautions should be taken. The LED's will not be on all the time so they should easily last the two-year mission.

Everett, Louis J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

INCREASING THE TRANSPARENCY AND REPRODUCIBILITY OF SPACE RADIATION SCIENCE: THE RADIATION BIOLOGY ONTOLOGY

Among the primary objectives of the Open/Open-Source Science paradigm are making scientific investigation data transparent and results reproducible [1], objectives shared by the FAIR principles [2]. To accomplish this, the conceptual framework that includes all the investigation objects needs to be accurately captured and communicated to all data consumers. A large part of this requires using metadata standards to annotate data collected. These standards should be readily accessible, informed by scientific community consensus and sufficiently specific to encompass all of the important aspects of the investigation. Starting in 2020 we have been co-leading an open consortium to develop a new metadata standard, the Radiation Biology Ontology (RBO), through the Open Biological and Biomedical Ontologies (OBO) Foundry [3]. We began by transforming many of the terms from the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurement into concepts that can be formally related to existing OBO Foundry classes or attributes. We then identified and imported into the RBO existing OBO Foundry classes that have obvious relevance for radiation biomedicine (for example, concepts from the Environment Ontology that describe radiative processes, and concepts from the Gene Ontology dealing with molecular and cellular responses to radiation). Finally, we scrutinized datasets from investigations of radiation effects held in NASA GeneLab and LSDA repositories and added additional classes, instances, and attributes into the RBO that should be used to annotate these data. We developed the RBO using the open-source tools of GitHub and publish the RBO periodically through the NIH/NCBI BioPortal website, so systems worldwide can leverage the knowledge it contains [4]. This initial phase of concept modeling has yielded an RBO that at present has more than 300 declared concepts, with more than 3500 additional concepts imported from other OBO Foundry ontologies. While this first phase has focused on concepts for annotating samples, environments, exposures, and measurements, the next phase will center on supporting annotation of results and findings, such as concept models of molecular, cellular and tissue effects. The value of the RBO will be determined in part by our ability to engage the community in its development, and we have established a Radiobiology Informatics Consortium with unrestricted membership as the owner of the RBO in order to encourage investigators, system owners and other to join in this effort. Anyone can report issues or request new concept modeling or other features directly on GitHub. By using the BioPortal application programming interface, systems can pose dynamic queries to the latest version of the RBO for information on individual classes or entire hierarchies; this design eliminates the need for systems to be updated in order to use newer versions of the RBO. We hope to contribute to the advancement of open radiobiological science through the continued, open development of the RBO, that will provide more precise, machine-interpretable descriptions of investigations, as well as support data meta-analysis through machine learning or other artificial intelligence methods. REFERENCES [1] Open science in space. Nature Medicine, 2021. 27(9): p. 1485-1485. [2] Wilkinson, M.D., et al., The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship. Sci Data, 2016. 3: p. 160018. [3] Smith, B., et al., The OBO Foundry: coordinated evolution of ontologies to support biomedical data integration. Nat Biotechnol, 2007. 25(11): p. 1251-5. [4] Whetzel, P.L., et al., BioPortal: enhanced functionality via new Web services from the National Center for Biomedical Ontology to access and use ontologies in software applications. Nucleic Acids Res, 2011. 39(Web Server issue): p. W541-5.

informatics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

INCREASING THE TRANSPARENCY AND REPRODUCIBILITY OF SPACE RADIATION SCIENCE: THE RADIATION BIOLOGY ONTOLOGY

knowledge↗

NASA NTRS2008

Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5. Diurnal cycles are explicitly resolved by merging geostationary satellite observations with CERES and MODIS. Atmospheric state data are provided from a frozen version of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office- Data Assimilation System at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition to improving the accuracy of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, CERES also produces radiative fluxes at the surface and at several levels in the atmosphere using radiative transfer modeling, constrained at the TOA by CERES (ERBE was limited to the TOA). In all, CERES uses 11 instruments on 7 spacecraft all integrated to obtain climate accuracy in TOA to surface fluxes. This presentation will provide an overview of several new CERES datasets of interest to the climate community (including a new adjusted TOA flux dataset constrained by estimates of heat storage in the Earth system), show direct comparisons between CERES ad ERBE, and provide a detailed error analysis of CERES fluxes at various time and space scales. We discuss how observations can be used to reduce uncertainties in cloud feedback and climate sensitivity and strongly argue why we should NOT "call off the quest".

Loeb, Norman G.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m(sup -2), indicating that adjustments to aerosols, which include cloud, water vaporand temperature, lead to stronger forcing than the aerosol direct RF.

Climate Models↗