SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Predictive Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Generation-Storage Coordination Dispatch Strategy for Power System Based on Causal Reinforcement Learning

In the backdrop of global energy transformation, power systems integrating high proportions of renewable energy sources are facing unprecedented challenges in operational stability and dispatch efficiency. To address these challenges, this study introduces a generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch strategy based on Causal Power System Dynamic Reinforcement Learning (CPSDRL). Diverging from traditional reinforcement learning approaches, CPSDRL innovatively incorporates causal inference within the state prediction model - the crux of model-based reinforcement learning - thereby establishing the Power Causal Dynamic Model (PCDM). Assisted by the prior knowledge of power systems, the model significantly enhances prediction accuracy and reliability through a two-stage training process. Utilizing PCDM, this study further applies a direct policy search algorithm to optimize the real-time dispatch strategy. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method improves the stability of generation-storage coordination real-time dispatch and exhibits competitive advantages in sample efficiency and computational speed, compared to traditional model-based and model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. This method is expected to enhance the practicality and adaptability of causal reinforcement learning techniques in power system scheduling and control.

causal reinforcement learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and code from: Multivariate bayesian regression model for predicting disposed ash composition at U.S. coal fired power stations

This dataset contains the code and data files needed for implementation of a Multivariate Bayesian Regression model, described in Jin et al. (2025), for the historical prediction of the chemical composition of disposed coal ash at U.S. coal fired power plants as a function of annualized coal purchase data. The integrated coal supply data file (CoalSupplyDataset.csv) represents a compilation of monthly fuel purchase records for the period 1973-2022 at major U.S. power stations. These records were obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The CSV file also contains, for each coal purchase record, the coal region of the mine as defined by the U.S. Geological Survey. Data entry errors and data gaps in the EIA records were corrected as described in Jin et al. This CSV file represents the integrated coal supply data after corrections were made. The model structure and fitting parameters are encoded in pickle file format (Bayesian.pkl). The model was developed with the coal supply data and coal ash composition data, apportioned according to the Stratified Shuffle Split for training and testing subsets. The model was built using Python and the PyMC library. Reference Publication: Jin, Z.; Huang, J.; Hower, J.C.; Hsu-Kim, H.(2025). Predictive Assessment of the Chemical Composition of Coal Ash in Reserve at U.S. Disposal Sites. Environmental Science & Technology.

Coal ash composition↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced hybrid modeling approach for better identification of a building thermal network model and improved prediction

The gray-box modeling approach, which uses a semi-physical thermal network model, has been widely used in building prediction applications, such as model predictive control (MPC). However, unmeasured disturbances, such as occupants, lighting, and in/exfiltration loads, make it challenging to apply this approach to practical buildings. In this word, we propose a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the gray-box model with a model for unmeasured disturbance. After reviewing several system identification approaches, we systematically designed the unmeasured disturbance model with a model selection process based on statistical tests to make it robust. We generated data based on the building model calibrated by real operational data and then trained the hybrid model for two different weather conditions. The hybrid model approach demonstrates an RMSE reduction of approximately 0.2–0.9 °C and 0.3–2 °C on 1-day ahead temperature prediction compared to the Conventional approach for mild (Berkeley, CA) and cold (Chicago, IL) climates, respectively. In addition, this approach was applied to experimental data obtained from the laboratory building to be used for the MPC application, showing superior prediction performances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging Experiment and Theory to Reveal Compounds in K–Zn(Cd)–Bi Systems

This study investigates the facile hydride synthesis method guided by theoretical predictions to explore the K–T–Bi (T = Zn, Cd) phase spaces. Using an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) and density functional theory (DFT), candidate compositions are identified for experimental validation via a facile hydrides route, permitting experimental screening of K–Zn–Bi and “empty” K–Cd–Bi systems. The previously reported KZnBi and KZn 2 Bi 2 are synthesized alongside newly discovered KCdBi and KCd 2 Bi 2 . While the AGA and DFT predict the stability of these compounds, structural predictions align with the experiment only for KZnBi and KZn 2 Bi 2 . Single-crystal X-ray structure refinements confirm that KZnBi and KZn 2 Bi 2 adopt the hexagonal ZrBeSi- and tetragonal ThCr 2 Si 2 -structure types, respectively. KCdBi has tetragonal PbClF-structure type and KCd 2 Bi 2 belongs to the ThCr 2 Si 2 -structure type. A trend based on the ratio of the metal ionic radii allows to rationalize variation in the structure types within the ATBi family (A = Li–Cs), correctly identifying KCdBi as isostructural to NaZnBi. Thermal stability studied by high-temperature powder X-ray diffraction reveals that Zn-containing compounds melt at higher temperatures (821 K for KZn 2 Bi 2 ) than Cd-containing KCd 2 Bi 2 (635 K). This study highlights the efficacy of combining rapid synthesis techniques with predictive modeling, though structural predictions show some limitations in accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Search for signatures of electroweakinos with photons, jets, and large missing transverse momentum in s=13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for final states characterised by at least one isolated high transverse-momentum photon, jets and large missing transverse momentum is presented. Such a final state might occur in gauge-mediated supersymmetric models where a pair of binos and higgsinos mix to form neutralinos, one of which decays into a photon plus a gravitino while the other decays into a Higgs boson, a Z boson or a photon, plus a gravitino. The search is performed using the full Run-2 data sample of 140 fb−1 of s=13$$ \sqrt{s}=13 $$ TeV proton-proton collisions collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No significant excess of events is observed above the Standard Model prediction and model-dependent exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are set. These limits are interpreted in terms of the masses of gauginos, which are excluded up to 1.2 TeV depending on their branching ratios, and on their branching ratios as a function of their mass.

Aad, G↗

DOE OSTI2024

An integrated approach to optimizing concentration shock wave electrodialysis using 2D multicell simulation and response surface models

Shock wave electrodialysis (SWED) is a highly promising technique for energy-efficient ion separation in the context of a circular economy. This paper presents a approach way of modeling and improving SWED using a two-dimensional multicell model combined with the COMSOL program and response surface methodology. The model integrates the Nernst-Planck equation, Darcy's law, and first-order electroosmosis to examine the local concentration, flux of ionic species, distribution of current, and velocity of flow in SWED cells under various operating conditions. We first illustrate the clear depiction of concentration, velocity, and electric potential distribution through contours which aids in identifying optimal operating conditions and designing scalable SWED systems. The results emphasize the significance of surface charge density and voltage in influencing the features of shock waves for obtaining effective ion separation while optimizing energy consumption and improving current efficiency by controlling the retention time of feed flow. Here, this study defines two crucial characteristics of shock waves, namely the length of the flat depletion zone of a fully developed shock wave (shock wave height) and the distance of shock wave propagation (shock wave length). These properties significantly impact separation performance, as determined by the simulation results. Additionally, the response surface methodology is incorporated with the COMSOL models to develop predictive models and graph responses, enabling a more comprehensive understanding of the interactions between parameters and performance indicators, such as removal ratio, energy consumption, and water recovery. Finally, this work suggests design tactics for expanding SWED processes and outlines potential areas for further research. This research provides valuable insights into the prospective applications, design optimization, and scalability of SWED in the field of electrokinetic separation technologies for green chemistry and a circular economy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Instrumented Capsule Design to Measure Thermal Conductivity in Miniature UO2 Specimens

Numerous separate effects irradiations of miniature nuclear fuel specimens have been conducted in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) under the experimental platform designated as MiniFuel. MiniFuel is a static irradiation capability in which microstructural evolution and fuel performance phenomena are observed during postirradiation examination thereby offering a snapshot of the terminal fuel characteristics. This approach inherently requires fielding an irradiation where the experimental conditions are determined using predictive models and the pertinent outcomes are measured at the end of the test. Static irradiations can provide useful insights to the relationships between fuel performance and the pivotal irradiation conditions, namely temperature and burnup, but the ability to monitor fuel performance in situ would further support fuel development and qualification. To this end, an instrumented experiment design is being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to capture thermal conductivity degradation and fission gas release during HFIR irradiation. These phenomena will be monitored using unique capsule designs that each target a different phenomenon. This paper details the thermal conductivity capsule (TCC) design and its expected performance envelope as determined using computer models. Each TCC will contain a miniature UO2 disc specimen (~0.5 mm thick × 5 mm diameter) sandwiched between metallic slugs with embedded thermocouples. The coupling of in situ temperature measurements, known thermal conductivity of the metallic components, and heat generation rates computed using high-fidelity neutronics models make the thermal conductivity measurement possible. This paper describes the reactor physics and heat transfer models used to predict the capsule’s performance and the methodology for calculating the fuel specimen’s thermal conductivity from the thermocouple measurements.

Gorton, Jacob [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000269806083)↗

DOE OSTI2025

In-Situ Process Monitoring Evaluation and Demonstration using Advanced Characterization with Laser Powder Bed Systems

Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) Manufacturing Demonstration Facility (MDF) worked with EOS Group to evaluate the current in-situ sensor capabilities of an EOS M290 Laser Powder Bed Fusion machine. The M290 was fitted with a 1 Mega-Pixel (MP) grayscale visible-light camera and a 5 MP temporally integrated (TI) near-infrared (NIR) camera. One print from stainless steel (SS) 316 and two from Inconel 625 (IN625) were performed where data including in-situ imaging and a machine log file were captured. These data were subsequently analyzed using a Dynamic Multi-Scale Segmentation Convolutional Neural Network (DMSCNN) trained on user defined classes and correlated to as-printed flaws, in the form of porosity, discovered in X-Ray Computed Tomography (XCT). In Phase I, two indications were detected in-situ and spatially correlated to stochastic lack-of-fusion flaws discovered using XCT. In Phase II, using these links from in-situ signatures to XCT flaw populations, a second neural network (NN) was trained to create a Voxelized Property Prediction Model (VPPM) to predict porosity percentages within the part using only features garnered from the in-situ data from two IN625 complex geometries. The VPPM was able to accurately predict porosity values for IN625 parts with an R 2 value of 0.764.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

In-Situ Process Monitoring Evaluation and Demonstration using Advanced Characterization with Laser Powder Bed Systems

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interesting Graphite Facts

Interesting facts about graphite. Graphite within HTRs and how long they will last, potential issues prediction, model building to predict expected behavior, and frequent and thorough inspection and monitoring strategy.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal Heat Pump System Showcase: Short-Term Validation of Borehole Heat Exchanger Performance from Field Data to Numerical Modeling: Preprint

Since 2011, a geothermal heat pump (GHP) system has been operating to provide space heating and cooling for the Solar Radiation and Research Laboratory building at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) in Golden, Colorado. The system consists of 23 vertical boreholes, each extending to a depth of 300 ft (91 m), connected to 11 water-to-air heat pump units and four circulation pumps. Between fiscal years 2023 and 2025, additional power meters and temperature sensors were retrofitted to support detailed system performance assessment and model development. This study presents preliminary monitoring results and the development of an initial numerical model of the borehole heat exchanger field. The model incorporated site-specific geometry, ground thermal properties derived from thermal response tests, and ambient temperatures, and simulated system behavior over a representative operating day in September. Model predictions of outlet temperatures were compared against corresponding field measurements. Results showed that modeling initialized with a simplified linear subsurface temperature gradient presents systematic discrepancies in outlet temperature, whereas incorporating depth-resolved borehole temperature measurements for initialization yields substantially improved agreement with observations. The findings highlight the sensitivity of short-term predictive modeling to the representation of initial subsurface thermal conditions and underscore the value of high-resolution field measurements for model calibration and validation. These preliminary results inform ongoing efforts to extend the modeling framework to longer time horizons and to refine monitoring and modeling strategies that support the design guidance and operational optimization of GHP systems in research and commercial buildings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces

We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of Additively Manufactured Ceramic Heat Exchangers with Semi-Elliptical Cross-Section Flow Channels

An approximate and easily applied analytical model was developed for heat transfer calculations of heat exchangers consisting of multiple rows and columns of heat transfer fluid flow channels with semi-elliptical cross sections. Heat exchangers of this type are being developed by using ceramic material and additive manufacturing for high temperature and pressure-concentrating solar electric power plants. Calculations using the model require only the geometrical dimensions and flow conditions of the heat exchanger. Comparisons of modeling predictions, with both simulation results and experimental data, were conducted to verify the viability of the model. The results showed good agreement where almost all the modeling predictions were within 20% of the simulation results or the experimental data. Finally, the proposed modeling approach is more generally applicable to heat transfer analysis of heat exchangers with similar flow channel configurations to those considered in this study.

Ceramic↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Decomposition-Based Learn-To-Optimize Approach with Feasibility Layer Assistance for Sub-Hourly Unit Commitment

Sub-hourly unit commitment (UC) with 15-min intervals is gaining significant attention as a way to respond rapidly to the fluctuations in electricity supply and demand introduced by renewable resources. However, the increased temporal resolution and complex inter-temporal dependencies pose substantial computational challenges for traditional optimization methods. To this end, this paper explores a decomposition-based learn-to-optimize approach. Building on recent advances in machine learning, our method revisits the long- overlooked Lagrangian relaxation framework, which is a classical decomposition technique that enables tractable subproblem solving. These smaller subproblems are inherently well-suited for machine learning, as their reduced dimensionality and structural regularity allow predictive models to efficiently learn and generalize solution patterns. We thus propose a generic predictive model, which embeds Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Attention in the encoder-decoder structure, and integrate a rule-based feasibility layer to capture temporal dependencies, reduce training effort, and improve feasibility w.r.t. unit-level constraints. Our method has been validated on the IEEE 118-bus system, demonstrating promising performance in solving sub-hourly UC problems efficiently and feasibly.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Redox Poise during Rhodospirillum rubrum Phototrophic Growth Drives Large-scale Changes in Macromolecular Synthesis Pathways

During photoheterotrophic growth on organic substrates, purple nonsulfur photosynthetic bacteria like Rhodospirillum rubrum can acquire electrons by multiple means, including oxidation of organic substrates, oxidation of inorganic electron donors (e.g., H2), and by reverse electron flow from the photosynthetic electron transport chain. These electrons are stored as reduced electron-carrying cofactors (e.g., NAD(P)H and ferredoxin). The overall ratio of oxidized to reduced cofactors (e.g., NAD(P)+:NAD(P)H), or ’redox poise’, is difficult to understand or predict, as are the cellular processes for dissipating these reducing equivalents. Using physics-based models that capture mass action kinetics consistent with the thermodynamics of reactions and pathways, a range of redox conditions for heterophototrophic growth are evaluated, from conditions in which the NADP+/NADPH levels approach thermodynamic equilibrium to conditions in which the NADP+/NADPH ratio is far above the typical physiological values. Modeling predictions together with experimental measurements indicate that the redox poise of the cell results in large-scale changes in the activity of biosynthetic pathways and, thus, changes in cell macromolecule levels (DNA, RNA, proteins, and fatty acids). Furthermore, modeling predictions indicate that during phototrophic growth, reverse electron flow from the quinone pool is a minor contributor to the production of reduced cofactors (e.g., NAD(P)H) compared to other oxidative processes (H2 and carbon substrate oxidation). Instead, the quinone pool primarily operates to aid ATP production. The high level of ATP, in turn, drives reduction processes even when NADPH levels are relatively low compared to NADP+ by coupling ATP hydrolysis to the reductive processes. The model, in agreement with experimental measurements of macromolecule ratios of cells growing on different carbon substrates, indicates that the dynamics of nucleotide versus lipid and protein production is likely a significant mechanism of balancing oxidation and reduction in the cell.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Redox poise in R. rubrum phototrophic growth drives large-scale changes in macromolecular pathways

During photoheterotrophic growth on organic substrates, purple nonsulfur photosynthetic bacteria like Rhodospirillum rubrum can acquire electrons by multiple means, including oxidation of organic substrates, oxidation of inorganic electron donors (e.g., H 2 ), and by reverse electron flow from the photosynthetic electron transport chain. These electrons are stored as reduced electron-carrying cofactors (e.g., NAD(P)H and ferredoxin). The overall ratio of oxidized to reduced cofactors (e.g., NAD(P)+:NAD(P)H), or ’redox poise’, is difficult to understand or predict, as are the cellular processes for dissipating these reducing equivalents. Using physics-based models that capture mass action kinetics consistent with the thermodynamics of reactions and pathways, a range of redox conditions for heterophototrophic growth are evaluated, from conditions in which the NADP+/NADPH levels approach thermodynamic equilibrium to conditions in which the NADP+/NADPH ratio is far above the typical physiological values. Modeling predictions together with experimental measurements indicate that the redox poise of the cell results in large-scale changes in the activity of biosynthetic pathways and, thus, changes in cell macromolecule levels (DNA, RNA, proteins, and fatty acids). Furthermore, modeling predictions indicate that during phototrophic growth, reverse electron flow from the quinone pool is a minor contributor to the production of reduced cofactors (e.g., NAD(P)H) compared to other oxidative processes (H 2 and carbon substrate oxidation). Instead, the quinone pool primarily operates to aid ATP production. The high level of ATP, in turn, drives reduction processes even when NADPH levels are relatively low compared to NADP+ by coupling ATP hydrolysis to the reductive processes. The model, in agreement with experimental measurements of macromolecule ratios of cells growing on different carbon substrates, indicates that the dynamics of nucleotide versus lipid and protein production is likely a significant mechanism of balancing oxidation and reduction in the cell.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Translating macroecological models to predict microbial establishment probability in an agricultural inoculant introduction

The use of potentially beneficial microorganisms in agriculture (microbial inoculants) has rapidly accelerated in recent years. For microbial inoculants to be effective as agricultural tools, these organisms must be able to survive and persist in novel environments while not destabilizing the resident community or spilling over into adjacent natural ecosystems. Despite the importance of propagule pressure to species introductions, few tools exist in microbial ecology to predict the outcomes of agricultural microbial introductions. Here, we adapt a macroecological propagule pressure model to a microbial scale and present an experimental approach for testing the role of propagule pressure in microbial inoculant introductions. We experimentally determined the risk-release relationship for an IAA-expressing Pseudomonas simiae inoculant in a model monocot system. We then used this relationship to simulate establishment outcomes under a range of application frequencies (propagule number) and inoculant concentrations (propagule size). Our simulations show that repeated inoculant applications may increase establishment, even when increased inoculant concentration does not alter establishment probabilities. Applying ecological modeling approaches like those presented here to microbial inoculants may aid their sustainable use and provide a monitoring tool for microbial inoculants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗