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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of MeshGraphNet Techniques for Subsurface Behavior Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

Carbon sequestration is a vital part of the effort to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. Previously, we have shown that Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) provide the ability to extract meaningful insights during prediction of subsurface behavior in carbon storage projects. However, these models have struggled with long-term prediction accuracy due to error accumulation caused by autoregressive prediction. This research leverages the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset to examine strategies for minimizing loss over time in a MeshGraphNet GNN model to improve reliability of predictions while minimizing inferencing time.

Holcomb, Paul↗
NASA NTRS1978

Infrared Imagery of Shuttle (IRIS). Task 2, summary report

End-to-end tests of a 16 element indium antimonide sensor array and 10 channels of associated electronic signal processing were completed. Quantitative data were gathered on system responsivity, frequency response, noise, stray capacitance effects, and sensor paralleling. These tests verify that the temperature accuracies, predicted in the Task 1 study, can be obtained with a very carefully designed electro-optical flight system. Pre-flight and inflight calibration of a high quality are mandatory to obtain these accuracies. Also, optical crosstalk in the array-dewar assembly must be carefully eliminated by its design. Tests of the scaled up tracking system reticle also demonstrate that the predicted tracking system accuracies can be met in the flight system. In addition, improvements in the reticle pattern and electronics are possible, which will reduce the complexity of the flight system and increase tracking accuracy.

Chocol, C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast and stable deep-learning predictions of material properties for solid solution alloys

We present a novel deep learning (DL) approach to produce highly accurate predictions of macroscopic physical properties of solid solution binary alloys and magnetic systems. The major idea is to make use of the correlations between different physical properties in alloy systems to improve the prediction accuracy of neural network (NN) models. We use multitasking NN models to simultaneously predict the total energy, charge density and magnetic moment. These physical properties mutually serve as constraints during the training of the multitasking NN, resulting in more reliable DL models because multiple physics properties are correctly learned by a single model. Two binary alloys, copper–gold (CuAu) and iron–platinum (FePt), were studied. Our results show that once the multitasking NN's are trained, they can estimate the material properties for a specific configuration hundreds of times faster than first-principles density functional theory calculations while retaining comparable accuracy. We used a simple measure based on the root-mean-squared errors to quantify the quality of the NN models, and found that the inclusion of charge density and magnetic moment as physical constraints leads to more stable models that exhibit improved accuracy and reduced uncertainty for the energy predictions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Utilization of Data Augmentation Techniques in Automated Inspection Systems for Defect Detection in Metals With Limited Data

Accurate identification of defects on metal surfaces is of great interest to many industry sectors, such as the automotive and aerospace industries. In contrast to conventional manual inspection techniques, recent automated inspection systems employ deep learning models trained to detect defects rapidly and precisely. The development of these models often requires a substantial image dataset to acquire adequate knowledge of defect features and enhance their predictive accuracy. When data is limited, augmentation techniques are often used to improve the precision and accuracy of defect detection systems. This study examined the prediction performance of two object detection models, namely Faster Region‐based Convolutional Neural Network (Faster R‐CNN) and You Only Look Once version 8 (YOLOv8), to identify dent defects in limited images of cast iron cylinder head surfaces. The original image set contains 46 images with 563 dents. To overcome limited data availability, common image augmentation techniques along with a copy‐paste method were applied. Results show that standard augmentation improved YOLOv8 accuracy by 8.00% and average precision (AP) by 3.00%. On the other hand, the copy‐paste technique achieved a 20.00% increase in accuracy and a 1% increase in AP with just 200 synthetic dents. Furthermore, these results provide support for using the copy‐paste augmentation strategy to enhance defect detection performance, with a limited dataset, contributing to more accurate defect identification in remanufacturing processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving net ecosystem CO2 flux prediction using memory-based interpretable machine learning

Terrestrial ecosystems play a central role in the global carbon cycle and affect climate change. However, our predictive understanding of these systems is still limited due to their complexity and uncertainty about how key drivers and their legacy effects influence carbon fluxes. Here, we propose an interpretable Long Short-Term Memory (iLSTM) network for predicting net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) and interpreting the influence on the NEE prediction from environmental drivers and their memory effects. We consider five drivers and apply the method to three forest sites in the United States. Besides performing the prediction in each site, we also conduct transfer learning by using the iLSTM model trained in one site to predict at other sites. Results show that the iLSTM model produces good NEE predictions for all three sites and, more importantly, it provides reasonable interpretations on the input driver's importance as well as their temporal importance on the NEE prediction. Additionally, the iLSTM model demonstrates good across-site transferability in terms of both prediction accuracy and interpretability. The transferability can improve the NEE prediction in unobserved forest sites, and the interpretability advances our predictive understanding and guides process-based model development.

Liu, Siyan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Self-supervised and multi-fidelity learning for extended predictive soil spectroscopy

Infrared spectroscopy is a cost-effective, non-destructive, and environmentally benign technology that is increasingly recognized as an important solution for meeting the global demand for soil data. While both near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy enable rapid estimation of soil properties, they present a significant trade-off: NIR offers superior scalability and lower operational costs, whereas MIR provides higher analytical fidelity by capturing fundamental molecular vibrations. In this study, we propose a self-supervised, multi-fidelity learning framework designed to bridge this gap. Our approach leverages large-scale MIR spectral libraries to learn a compact, transferable latent representation, into which NIR spectra are subsequently aligned for downstream prediction. The workflow consists of pretraining a latent model on a large MIR library, adapting the representation using a smaller paired NIR–MIR dataset, and evaluating generalization on an independent external test set. Across a range of chemical and physical soil properties, we found that MIR-derived embeddings improved prediction accuracy relative to baseline models that used raw MIR inputs. Predictions derived from the spectrum conversion (NIR to MIR) task did not match the performance of the original MIR spectra but were similar or superior to predictive performance of NIR-only models, suggesting the unified spectral latent space can effectively leverage the larger and more diverse MIR dataset for prediction of soil properties not well represented in current NIR libraries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting the creep-rupture lifetime of a cast austenitic stainless steel using Larson-Miller and Wilshire parametric approaches

An experimental dataset of just over 100 creep tests of a cast austenitic stainless steel, CF8C-Plus, was analyzed by two temperature-compensated parametric models (Larson-Miller, Wilshire et al.) to predict long-term lifetimes as functions of temperature and stress. The dataset and associated regression analyses showed greater scatter than typically found in recent similar studies of wrought Ni-based alloys by the same two models and was attributed to the microstructural inhomogeneity of the cast stainless steel. Qualitatively, the Larson-Miller formalism showed greater lifetime prediction accuracy than the Wilshire approach, with the latter model's predictive ability being particularly degraded by the presence of two very significant outlier results. This observation suggests that the Larson-Miller approach is more robust when treating rupture-time datasets that show particularly wide experimental scatter. Despite the differences in the overall predictive ability, both models yielded similar predictions of the applied stress at which CF8C-Plus would have a creep-limited lifetime of 100,000 h when loaded below the yield point.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models

Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Load Prediction Equations of Low-Load Balance Calibration Data

Accuracy and reliability of the load prediction equations of a low-load calibration data set of a force balance were investigated. First, independent load prediction equations were generated from the data of a full-load and low-load machine calibration. Then, the low- load data set was processed as a set of precision check loads for the load prediction equations that were obtained from the full-load and low-load calibrations. Finally, the load prediction equations of the two calibrations were applied to four manual check load data sets that were recorded between 2009 and 2022. The residuals of the predicted calibration and check loads were compared in all cases. No systematic improvement of the load prediction accuracy was observed when the load prediction equations of the low-load calibration were applied to the check load data sets. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a full-load calibration to a six-component balance even if the balance is not used across its entire design envelope. This approach has the advantage that the resulting load prediction equations are less likely to be applied outside of the calibration load ranges. In addition, it is expected that the numerical estimates of the gage sensitivities are more reliable assuming that the uncertainties of the applied loads and measured outputs of the calibration data are more or less constant across the load range of the balance.

strain-gage balance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Load Prediction Equations of Low-Load Balance Calibration Data

Accuracy and reliability of the load prediction equations of a low-load calibration data set of a force balance were investigated. First, independent load prediction equations were generated from the data of a full-load and low-load machine calibration. Then, the low-load data set was processed as a set of precision check loads for the load prediction equations that were obtained from the full-load and low-load calibrations. Finally, the load prediction equations of the two calibrations were applied to four manual check load data sets that were recorded between 2009 and 2022. The residuals of the predicted calibration and check loads were compared in all cases. No systematic improvement of the load prediction accuracy was observed when the load prediction equations of the low-load calibration were applied to the check load data sets. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a full-load calibration to a six-component balance even if the balance is not used across its entire design envelope. This approach has the advantage that the resulting load prediction equations are less likely to be applied outside of the calibration load ranges. In addition, it is expected that the numerical estimates of the bridge sensitivities are more reliable assuming that the uncertainties of the applied loads and measured outputs of the calibration data are more or less constant across the load range of the balance.

strain-gage balance↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal predictions of toxic urban plumes using deep learning

Industrial accidents, chemical spills, and structural fires can release large amounts of harmful materials that disperse into urban atmospheres and impact populated areas. Computer models are typically used to predict the transport of toxic plumes by solving fluid dynamical equations. However, these models can be computationally expensive due to the need for many grid cells to simulate turbulent flow and resolve individual buildings and streets. In emergency response situations, alternative methods are needed that can run quickly and adequately capture important spatiotemporal features. Here, we present a novel deep learning model called ST-GasNet inspired by the mathematical equations that govern the behavior of plumes as they disperse through the atmosphere. ST-GasNet learns the spatiotemporal dependencies from a limited set of temporal sequences of ground-level toxic urban plumes generated by a high-resolution large eddy simulation model. On independent sequences, ST-GasNet accurately predicts the late-time spatiotemporal evolution, given the early-time behavior as an input, even when a building splits a large plume into smaller plumes. By incorporating large-scale wind boundary condition information, ST-GasNet achieves a prediction accuracy of at least 90% on test data for the entire prediction period.

Civil and Environmental Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coolant Pump Predictive Data Analytics from Signatures Generated by the Recursive Short Time Fast Fourier Transform

Although a nuclear reactor is a hostile environment for sensors and signal transmissions, the reactor core is amenable to acoustic communication. An acoustic measurement infrastructure installed at the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) nozzle trench area records acoustic signals that can capture reactor operating states. The distinct states produce unique signatures that can be identified and tracked using data processing and data analytics. The infrastructure relies on acoustic transmission through ATR in-pile structural components, piping, and coolant that transmit acoustically modified signals generated by the coolant pumps. This paper will discuss results from using the Recursive Short Time Fast Fourier Transform (RSTFFT) technique used to process acoustic signals and provide signatures that are identified and monitored by analytics. The RSTFFT is applied to ATR data to understand the vibration levels and signatures for different operating regimes as displayed by the spectrogram. The combination of coolant pumps for normal and high-power operation generate unique signatures. These acoustic signatures are used to develop machine learning approaches to automatically classify operating regimes. Two machine-learning models, Support Vector Machines and Linear Discriminant Analysis, were developed to classify two event classes. Class 1 is a normal steady-state operation, and Class 2 is any event that is due to start up, shut down, or other actions. Both types of machine learning models had over a 96% prediction accuracy for the two classes. These results lay the foundation for predictive analytic frameworks that can be leveraged by ATR to optimize operations and maintenance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep energy-pressure regression for a thermodynamically consistent EOS model

Abstract In this paper, we aim to explore novel machine learning (ML) techniques to facilitate and accelerate the construction of universal equation-Of-State (EOS) models with a high accuracy while ensuring important thermodynamic consistency. When applying ML to fit a universal EOS model, there are two key requirements: (1) a high prediction accuracy to ensure precise estimation of relevant physics properties and (2) physical interpretability to support important physics-related downstream applications. We first identify a set of fundamental challenges from the accuracy perspective, including an extremely wide range of input/output space and highly sparse training data. We demonstrate that while a neural network (NN) model may fit the EOS data well, the black-box nature makes it difficult to provide physically interpretable results, leading to weak accountability of prediction results outside the training range and lack of guarantee to meet important thermodynamic consistency constraints. To this end, we propose a principled deep regression model that can be trained following a meta-learning style to predict the desired quantities with a high accuracy using scarce training data. We further introduce a uniquely designed kernel-based regularizer for accurate uncertainty quantification. An ensemble technique is leveraged to battle model overfitting with improved prediction stability. Auto-differentiation is conducted to verify that necessary thermodynamic consistency conditions are maintained. Our evaluation results show an excellent fit of the EOS table and the predicted values are ready to use for important physics-related tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Artificial intelligence methods for protein structure and interaction prediction: Recent advances and challenges

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have introduced novel methods for high-accuracy prediction of protein tertiary structures, protein complex structures, and interactions between proteins and other biomolecules, such as small molecules and nucleic acids. Such advancements are accelerating biomedical research and the development of new protein design and bioengineering methods among many other important biotechnology applications. Here, in this review, we outline the recent advances in protein-centric biomolecular structure and interaction prediction, highlight some major challenges in the field, and discuss potential directions to address them.

Morehead, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural network–based pore flow field prediction in porous media using super resolution

Direct pore-scale simulations of fluid flow through porous media are computationally expensive to perform for realistic systems. Previous works have demonstrated using the geometry of the microstructure of porous media to predict the velocity fields therein based on neural networks. However, such trained neural networks do not perform well for unseen porous media with a large degree of heterogeneity. In this study we propose that incorporating a coarse velocity field in the input of neural networks is an effective way to improve the prediction performance. The coarse velocity field can be simulated with a low computational cost and provides global information to regularize the ill-posedness of the learning problem, which is usually caused by the use of local geometries due to the computational resource constraints. We show that incorporating the coarse-mesh velocity field significantly improves the prediction accuracy of the fine-mesh velocity field by comparison to the prediction that relies on geometric information alone, especially for the porous medium with a large interior vuggy pore space. We also show the flexibility of training the network in using coarse velocity fields with various resolutions. The results suggest that even using coarse velocity field with a very low resolution, the predictions are still enhanced and close to the ground truths. The feasibility of the method is further demonstrated by testing the trained network on real rocks. This study highlights the merits of incorporating a coarse-mesh velocity field into the input for neural networks, which provides global, physics-based information for the model, thereby improving the model's generalization capability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Slider Crank WEC Performance Analysis with Adaptive Autoregressive Filtering

This paper investigates a performance analysis of wave excitation force prediction to extract wave power for a slider crank power take-off system (PTOS) based on auto regressive (AR) filters. To efficiently convert wave energy into electricity, the prediction of wave excitation forces to keep the generator and the wave excitation force in sync is important for maximum energy extraction. The study shows a prediction methodology of half period and zero crossings in the practical scenario of irregular ocean waves. The prediction has been tested for different wave periods and with different filter orders. The prediction results have been used in the PTOS simulation to analyze the energy extraction. It has been shown that the prediction accuracy in the wave half period between the truth data and the predicted data drives the WEC energy extraction efficiency. The amplitude of the wave force is not used and hence the prediction deviation in the wave force amplitude does not affect the PTOS energy extraction. Further analysis shows that the optimum energy can be extracted at 15 th order filter with moderate prediction horizon length.

autoregressive filter↗