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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Fracture characteristics and heat treatment of laser powder bed fusion additively manufactured GRCop-84 copper

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) of Glenn Research Copper 84 (GRCop-84), a Cr 2 Nb (8 at. % Cr, 4 at. % Nb) precipitation hardened alloy, produces a fully dense high conductivity alloy with a yield strength of 500 MPa and ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of 740 MPa, superior to other competing copper alloys, and 20% elongation at fracture for material stressed perpendicular to the build direction. The high thermal stability of the Cr 2 Nb precipitate in the copper matrix reduces coarsening and maintains a 300 MPa yield, 520 MPa UTS and 26% elongation after a 900 °C, 5-h heat treatment, while a 3 h 450 °C heat treatment increases yield to 810 MPa, UTS to 970 MPa with 9% elongation at fracture, for samples stressed perpendicular to the build direction. Tensile strength anisotropy based on print direction was attributed to internal stress and columnar grain formation. Void nucleation during tensile fracture was initiated by brittle fracture of precipitate particles within the copper matrix. Fracture cusps contain matching precipitate fragment geometry on opposing sides located near the cusp center in at least 80% of fracture cusps. An optimal precipitate size of 100 nm is predicted for maximum tensile strength from precipitates on fracture surfaces, while tensile testing with varying heat treatments shows maximum strength with 100 nm and smaller precipitates. Cr2Nb precipitates are shown to transition between polycrystalline and monocrystalline structures at high temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

More high-impact atmospheric river-induced extreme precipitation events under warming in a high-resolution model

Extreme precipitation events, as occurred in Europe 2021, or western North America 2023, with an intensity of 75 mm/day or 100 mm/day, respectively, exert a catastrophic impact. Lower-resolution (~100 km) climate models cannot simulate the intensity, nor their response to greenhouse warming. Using a high-resolution (~25 km) model capable of simulating such events, here we show that frequency-weighted area of such events over western Europe and the west coast of North America likely expands by more than 80% under an approximately 4°C of global warming from the historical levels. Along the west coasts of Europe and North America, area impacted by atmospheric rivers-induced extreme precipitation events is projected to double, driven by intensified landfalling atmospheric rivers. Thermodynamic processes drive the increase, whereas dynamic processes reduce the intensity over western Europe but enhance it along the west coast of North America. Here our findings provide policy-relevant information for climate adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Precipitation Efficiency and Water Budget of Typhoon Fitow (2013): A Particle Trajectory Study

Here, the WRF Model is used to simulate the torrential rainfall of Typhoon Fitow (2013) over coastal areas of east China during its landfall. Data from the innermost model domain are used to trace trajectories of particles in three major 24-h accumulated rainfall centers using the Lagrangian flexible particle dispersion model (FLEXPART). Surface rainfall budgets and cloud microphysical budgets as well as precipitation efficiency are analyzed along the particles’ trajectories. The rainfall centers with high precipitation efficiency are associated with water vapor convergence, condensation, accretion of cloud water by raindrops, and raindrop loss/convergence. The raindrop loss/convergence over rainfall centers is supported by the raindrop gain/divergence over the areas adjacent to rainfall centers. Precipitation efficiency is mainly confirmed by hydrometeor loss/convergence. Hydrometeor loss/convergence corresponds to the hydrometeor flux convergence, which may be related to the increased vertical advection of hydrometeors in response to the upward motions and upward decrease of hydrometeors, whereas hydrometeor gain/divergence corresponds to the reduction in hydrometeor flux convergence, which may be associated with the decreased horizontal advection of hydrometeors in response to the zonal decrease in hydrometeors and easterly winds and the meridional increase in hydrometeors and southerly winds. The water vapor convergence and associated condensation do not show consistent relationships with orographic lifting all the time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Two modes of grain boundary pinning by coherent precipitates

Here, we propose a two-mechanism theory to estimate the pinning effect of coherent precipitates on grain-boundary (GB) migration in grain growth, taking into account the important effect of elastic misfit strain at the coherent interface. Depending on the relative importance of the elastic and the GB contributions to the total free energy, Zener type stabilization or a novel elastic energy induced stabilization may occur. It is found that the pinning is most effective in the crossover region between these two mechanisms. Finally, a phase-field-crystal model is used to numerically validate the theory. Relevant experiments and potential impacts on alloy design are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermomechanical Processing for Improved Mechanical Properties of HT9 Steels

Thermomechanical processing (TMP) of ferritic–martensitic (FM) steels, such as HT9 (Fe–12Cr–1MoWV) steels, involves normalizing, quenching, and tempering to create a microstructure of fine ferritic/martensitic laths with carbide precipitates. HT9 steels are used in fast reactor core components due to their high-temperature strength and resistance to irradiation damage. However, traditional TMP methods for these steels often result in performance limitations under irradiation, including embrittlement at low temperatures (<~430 °C), insufficient strength and toughness at higher temperatures (>500 °C), and void swelling after high-dose irradiation (>200 dpa). This research aimed to enhance both fracture toughness and strength at high temperatures by creating a quenched and tempered martensitic structure with ultrafine laths and precipitates through rapid quenching and unconventional tempering. Mechanical testing revealed significant variations in strength and fracture toughness depending on the processing route, particularly the tempering conditions. Tailored TMP approaches, combining rapid quenching with limited tempering, elevated strength to levels comparable to nano-oxide strengthened ferritic alloys while preserving fracture toughness. For optimal properties in high-Cr steels for future reactor applications, this study recommends a modified tempering treatment, i.e., post-quench annealing at 500 °C or 600 °C for 1 h, possibly followed by a brief tempering at a slightly higher temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Precipitation in Al–Mg solid solution prepared by solidification under high pressure

The precipitation in Al–Mg solid solution containing 21.6 at.% Mg prepared by solidification under 2 GPa was investigated. The results show that the γ-Al{sub 12}Mg{sub 17} phase is formed and the β′ phase cannot be observed in the solid solution during ageing process. The precipitation of γ and β phases takes place in a non-uniform manner during heating process, i.e. the γ and β phases are first formed in the interdendritic region, which is caused by the inhomogeneous distribution of Mg atoms in the solid solution solidified under high pressure. Peak splitting of X-ray diffraction patterns of Al(Mg) solid solution appears, and then disappears when the samples are aged at 423 K for different times, due to the non-uniform precipitation in Al–Mg solid solution. The direct transformation from the γ to β phase is observed after ageing at 423 K for 24 h. It is considered that the β phase is formed through a peritectoid reaction of α + γ → β which needs the diffusion of Mg atoms across the interface of α/γ phases. - Highlights: • The γ phase is formed and the β′ phase is be observed in Al(Mg) solid solution. • Peak splitting of XRD pattern of Al(Mg) solid solution appears during aged at 150 °C. • The β phase is formed through a peritectoid reaction of α + γ → β.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Implementation of Tunneling Passivated Contacts into Industrially Relevant n-Cz Si Solar Cells

We identify bottlenecks, and propose solutions, to implement a B-diffused front emitter and a backside pc-Si/SiO2 pasivated tunneling contact into high efficiency n-Cz Si cells in an industrially relevant way. We apply an O-precipitate dissolution treatment to make n-Cz wafers immune to bulk lifetime process degradation, enabling robust, passivated B front emitters with J0 <; 20fA/cm2. Adding ultralow recombination n+ pc-Si/SiO2 back contacts enables pre-metallized cells with iVoc=720 mV and J0=8.6 fA/cm2. However, metallization significantly degrades performance of these contacts due to pinholes and possibly, grain boundary diffusion of primary metal and source contaminates such as Cu. An intermediate, doped a-Si:H capping layer is found to significantly block the harmful metal penetration into pc-Si.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

3D And 4D Cloud Lifecycle Investigations Using Innovative Scanning Radar Analysis Methods. Final report

With the vast upgrades to the ARM program radar measurement capabilities in 2010 and beyond, our ability to probe the 3D structure of clouds and associated precipitation has increased dramatically. This project build on the PI's and co-I's expertisein the analysis of radar observations. The first research thrust aims to document the 3D morphological (as depicted by the radar reflectivity structure) and 3D dynamical (cloud$-$scale eddies) structure of boundary layer clouds. Unraveling the 3D dynamical structure of stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds requires decomposition of the environmental wind contribution and particle sedimentation velocity from the observed radial Doppler velocity. The second thrust proposes to unravel the mechanism of cumulus entrainment (location, scales) and its impact on microphysics utilizing radar measurements from the vertically pointing and new scanning radars at the ARM sites. The third research thrust requires the development of a cloud$-$tracking algorithm that monitors the properties of cloud.

3D structure↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi–year analysis of rain–snow levels at Marquette, Michigan

This study uses observations from a ground-based instrument suite to investigate the rain-snow level in stratiform rainfall from January 2014 to April 2020 in the Upper Great Lakes Region. The height above the surface where ice melts to rain, the rain-snow level (RSL), influences microphysical assumptions in remote sensing precipitation retrievals and the ability of space-based radar to discriminate surface precipitation phase because of ground clutter. The instrument suite is installed at the Marquette, MI (MQT) National Weather Service station adjacent to Lake Superior. Rain events and the RSL are studied through a ground-based vertically profiling radar (Micro Rain Radar), a custom NASA-developed video disdrometer (Precipitation Imaging Package), and reanalyses products from ECMWF ERA5 and NASA MERRA-2. Further, distinct macro and micro physical characteristics are observed in precipitation events with shallow RSL ( < 1.8 km above ground level [AGL]) and intermediate RSL ( > 1.8 km AGL). Intermediate RSL correspond to rain events with relatively higher rain rates and a higher concentration of small drops in the drop size distributions (DSDs). Shallow RSL DSDs contain relatively higher concentrations of large drops with lower fall speeds suggesting that partially melted snowflakes may be reaching the surface. Reflectivity-rain-rate relationships are also impacted by microphysical differences associated with RSL regimes. Radar-detected RSL agree with reanalysis-derived melt levels- especially at wet-bulb isotherms of 0.5°C and 1°C. Seasonal differences such as shallow rain-snow levels in winter, fall, and spring have subsequent implications for satellite detectability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geochemical Modeling of Celestite (SrSO 4 ) Precipitation and Reactive Transport in Shales

Celestite (SrSO 4 ) precipitation is a prevalent example of secondary sulfate mineral scaling issues in hydraulic fracturing systems, particularly in basins where large concentrations of naturally occurring strontium are present. Herein, we present a validated and flexible geochemical model capable of predicting celestite formation under such unconventional environments. Simulations were built using CrunchFlow and guided by experimental data derived from batch reactors. These data allowed the constraint of key kinetic and thermodynamic parameters for celestite precipitation under relevant synthetic hydraulic fracturing fluid conditions. Effects of ionic strength, saturation index, and the presence of additives were considered in the combined experimental and modeling construction. This geochemical model was then expanded into a more complex system where interactions between hydraulic fracturing fluids and shale rocks were allowed to occur subject to diffusive transport. We find that the carbonate content of a given shale and the presence of persulfate breaker in the system strongly impact the location and extent of celestite formation. The results of this study provide a novel multicomponent reactive transport model that may be used to guide future experimental design in the pursuit of celestite and other sulfate mineral scale mitigation under extreme conditions typical of hydraulic fracturing in shale formations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monsoon Extremes: Impacts, Metrics, and Synoptic-Scale Drivers

This project was led by UC Berkeley with a subcontract to UC Davis and collaborative funding at the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). It produced new understanding of transient atmospheric disturbances in monsoon regions, the precipitation extremes they produce, and the sensitivity of precipitation and monsoon winds to fine-scale orography (i.e., the narrow mountain ranges that are difficult to represent in conventional Earth system models). Fundamental research undertaken as part of this project led to discovery of new mechanisms that control the generation of extreme weather events and that govern the spatial patterns of intense precipitation in monsoon climates—including the North American monsoon. These research accomplishments are summarized below and documented in a series of 23 publications, 20 of which were led by project personnel (the others were collaborative work led by staff of other projects). One of the publications produced by this project was in Nature, where it was selected for the main cover image, and another was in PNAS. The project also produced two datasets and a tracking algorithm, both of which are publicly available and listed below. The project trained three Ph.D. students and four postdoctoral scientists, the vast majority of whom have progressed to more advanced positions in their scientific careers. Although the university funding for this project ended in 2022, the LBNL component of the project proceeded for almost one year longer; this report is being provided after completion of all components of the project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Mesoscale Elucidation of Surface Passivation in the Li–Sulfur Battery Cathode

We report the cathode surface passivation caused by Li 2 S precipitation adversely affects the performance of lithium-sulfur (Li-S) batteries. Li 2 S precipitation is a complicated mesoscale process involving adsorption, desorption and diffusion kinetics, which are affected profoundly by the reactant concentration and operating temperature. In this work, a mesoscale interfacial model is presented to study the growth of Li 2 S film on carbon cathode surface. Li 2 S film growth experiences nucleation, isolated Li 2 S island growth and island coalescence. The slow adsorption rate at small S 2- concentration inhibits the formation of nucleation seeds and the lateral growth of Li 2 S islands, which deters surface passivation. An appropriate operating temperature, especially in the medium-to-high temperature range, can also defer surface passivation. Fewer Li 2 S nucleation seeds form in such an operating temperature range, which facilitates heterogeneous growth and thereby inhibits the lateral growth of the Li 2 S film, which may also result in reduced surface passivation. Finally, the high specific surface area of the cathode microstructure is expected to mitigate the surface passivation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” published in Water Resources Research (Wampler et al. 2025; preprint: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174438106.63564767/v1). This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a processed based model to explore the impacts of area burned and burn severity on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in two test basins: a semi-arid, mixed land use basin and a humid, primarily forested basin. We developed 1800 wildfire scenarios that we ran in each basin: 20 different burn extents (5 to 100% by 5%), 3 different burn severities (low, moderate, and high), and 30 different post-fire precipitation scenarios. We also ran an additional 30 scenarios associated with no wildfire for the 30 post-fire precipitation scenarios. For each scenario we were interested in the change in runoff ratio (streamflow) and average concentration and annual loads (nitrate and DOC) across the wildfire scenarios. This data package contains the data and scripts required to build SWAT models for the two test basins, create and run the wildfire scenarios, and generate the data summaries and figures used in the associated manuscript. This data package was originally published in March 2025. It was updated in January 2026 (v2; new and modified files) to include the final files after the manuscript went through reviews. See the change history section below for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Geochemical and Geomechanical Effects on Wellbore Cement Fractures

Experimental studies were conducted using batch reactors, X-ray microtomograpy (XMT), and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to determine changes in cement fracture surfaces, fluid flow pathways, and permeability with geochemical and geomechanical processes. Composite Portland cement-basalt caprock core with artificial fractures was prepared and reacted with CO2-saturated groundwater at 50°C and 10 MPa for 3 to 3.5 months under static conditions to understand the geochemical and geomechanical effects on the integrity of wellbores containing defects. Cement-basalt interface samples were subjected to mechanical stress at 2.7 MPa before the CO2 reaction. XMT provided three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of the opening and interconnection of cement fractures due to mechanical stress. After the CO2 reaction, XMT images revealed that calcium carbonate precipitation occurred extensively within the fractures in the cement matrix, but only partially along fractures located at the cement-basalt interface. The permeability calculated based on CFD simulation was in agreement with the experimentally measured permeability. The experimental results imply that the wellbore cement with fractures is likely to be healed during exposure to CO2-saturated groundwater under static conditions, whereas fractures along the cement-caprock interface are still likely to remain vulnerable to the leakage of CO2. CFD simulation for the flow of different fluids (CO2-saturated brine and supercritical CO2) using a pressure difference of 20 kPa and 200 kPa along ~2 cm-long cement fractures showed that a pressure gradient increase resulted in an increase of CO2 fluids flux by a factor of only ~3-9 because the friction of CO2 fluids on cement fracture surfaces increased with higher flow rate as well. At the same pressure gradient, the simulated flow rate was higher for supercritical CO2 than CO2-saturated brine by a factor of only ~2-3, because the viscosity of supercritical CO2 is much lower than that of CO2-saturated brine. The study suggests that in deep geological reservoirs the geochemical and geomechanical processes have coupled effects on the wellbore cement fracture evolution and fluid flow along the fracture surfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of electrostatic precipitator (ESP) technology to remove elemental mercury vapor, HG(0)

The presence of mercury vapor or other forms of mercury presents issues with worker safety, decommissioning facilities, and environmental impacts. As such, it is desired to develop a strategy to either remove or reduce mercury levels in Oak Ridge’s Y-12 Complex facilities. A testing methodology was developed to evaluate electrostatic precipitator technology for removal of mercury vapor. This methodology involved supplying mercury vapor-containing air to the ESP device by flowing air through a column containing alternating layers of sand and liquid mercury droplets. Initial attempts at quantifying the efficacy of the ESP device in removing mercury vapor were plagued with difficulties in controlling the flow of mercury into the ESP device due to poor performance of the generator column and the contamination of these experiments with mercury from an unknown source. These issues were resolved by creating a new generator column with slower air velocity and higher surface area of liquid mercury, along with moving the air intake for the ESP device to outside of the chemical hood in which testing took place. This resulted in a steady, quantified flow of mercury vapor from the generator column and no observation of unintended mercury sources. A final test of the ESP device under these controlled conditions showed that for a certain amount of time (on the order of 20-30 minutes) mercury concentrations were reduced by approximately 33 - 67% of the inlet concentration. However, episodic releases or pulses of mercury observed only at the outlet indicated that the mercury accumulated in the ESP device is periodically expelled. As a result, it was not deemed to be an efficient strategy for the removal of elemental mercury vapor.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

A GIS-Based Suitability Analysis of a Phytomanagment Strategy for TCE in Groundwater and Soil Niagara Falls Storage Site, New York - 19385

The large number of complexly contaminated sites throughout the nation has propagated the application of phytoremedial techniques in a wide array of environmental remediation strategies. The use and breeding of vegetation for the in-situ treatment of environmental media (soil, groundwater, sediment) contaminated with organic or inorganic contaminants has shown to provide a low-cost alternative to conventional means of remediating contaminated sites (e.g., groundwater extraction, chemical oxidation or reduction, bioremediation, excavation, etc.). One impediment to effective phytoremediation is the selection of proper plant-species, which is complicated due to the many variables that are required for plant-species viability (i.e. range of soil pH, annual precipitation values, depth to groundwater table, etc.). This study employed the use of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to first define the spatial extent of contaminated media (soil and groundwater) at a project site and then support an effective means to optimize phytoremediative techniques to manage these impacts prior to final remediation. Spatial analyses and analytical calculations were coupled to determine an optimal plant species and spacing to maximize the effectiveness of a phytomanagement plan. The incorporation of fuzzy membership functions and fuzzy overlay provide an innovative method to help select the optimal plant-species for phytomanagement planning. Fuzzy membership functions were used to represent the plant growth requirements and provided an intuitive method to represent the uncertainty associated with plant-growth requirements. The fuzzy overlay function then employed a raster-based suitability analysis that together provided decision makers with a scientific solution to optimally design a phytomanagement strategy for site-related volatile organic compound (VOC) impacts. The Niagara Falls Storage Site (NFSS) VOC-impacted groundwater is contained in clayey glacial sediments, which commonly are technically impractical to remediate. Prior on-site studies show that native poplar (cottonwood variants) preferentially translocate or phytoextract the VOCs from the site soils and thus provide a proven mechanism to manage the multi-media impacts. Consequently, the Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District evaluated phytoremediative approaches as a passive tool to manage the VOCs during the project life cycle prior to final remediation. The fuzzy membership functions and fuzzy overlay modeling of candidate species narrowed the selection to an optimal species and subsequent transpiration modeling estimated the plant spacing for the overall phytomanagement plan. The method employed for this study is easy applied to other phytoremediative and phytomanagement actions derived from hazardous waste decision making. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impact of climate change on erosion - 20397

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha (3,338-ac) site located approximately 48 km (30 mi) south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into Agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States. NFS, a private company, built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (metric tons, or 705 short tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations ended in 1972 and never reopened, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. Erosion can play an important role in the fate and transport of waste at sites where disposal of long-lived waste is anticipated. The statistical characterization of key processes related to erosion is essential to the understanding of site stability through time. One of the key processes governing erosion is extreme precipitation and it is critical that trends in the distribution of extreme precipitation events through time be represented. The evidence of climate change is increasingly well documented and projected impacts on extreme precipitation events should be incorporated in performance assessment studies when relevant. Not evaluating future climate states in a performance assessment is contradictory to good modeling practice. Specifically, excluding climate change limits development of modeling information that could aid in effective decision making. The current climate literature provides both observational evidence and climate model projections of climate trends and/or climate change in the late 20. and early 21. centuries for North America and the northeast United States. In this work, this information was used to assess the impacts of potential changes in climate on erosion processes. The goal was to understand how projections of future climate relate to the performance of the WNYNSC through time. In the first stage of this work multi-temporal historical aerial images were analyzed in conjunction with orthophotography and Lidar data to develop probability distributions for variables representing important erosion processes. The information from these analyses was then used in conjunction with simulated data from the West Valley Erosion Working Group (EWG). Analysis of EWG simulations provides estimates for the change in erosion rates through time that is driven by changes in climate. The time-varying rates of erosion change were applied to the historical aerial imagery data in order to inform time-varying rates of erosion that are driven by changes in climate. Ultimately, this process resulted in the identification of locations for features like gully heads using both the Lidar dataset and projection of the estimated location from the historical aerial photo under consideration back to the Lidar dataset. The distance between the estimate of the location from the historical image and that of the Lidar dataset was the estimated distance the feature has moved. This distance was then divided by the number of years between the Lidar dataset and the year of the historical aerial image of interest to get a rate of movement through time. This was done for several dozen points on each historical aerial image. The analyses from the EWG were used to characterize the relative impact of climate change on the erosion rates. This relative impact was quantified by comparing the LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using historical climate data with LEM based estimates of erosion that were derived using projections of future climate. The relative increase in the erosion rates was then applied to the historical estimates of erosion derived from the analysis of the historical aerial imagery. This approach was used since the LEM-based estimated of the historical erosion rates from the past century have a bias towards underestimating erosion. This underestimation is hypothesized to be a consequence of an inability of the LEMs to account for the impacts of land-use change (i.e. deforestation) which had been shown to significantly increase erosion in similar Northern hardwood forest ecosystems. In summary, gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate were characterized using statistical probability distributions from the historical aerial image analysis. Simulated data from the EWG was used to estimate the climatically-driven changes in erosion rates through time. The changes through time from the EWG were applied to the gully head retreat rate and gully widening rate characterized using the historical aerial image analysis. This information can be used to inform PPA models to project future risks from a given site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗