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DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

nautilus : boosting Bayesian importance nested sampling with deep learning

ABSTRACT We introduce a novel approach to boost the efficiency of the importance nested sampling (INS) technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation using deep learning. Unlike rejection-based sampling methods such as vanilla nested sampling (NS) or Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, importance sampling techniques can use all likelihood evaluations for posterior and evidence estimation. However, for efficient importance sampling, one needs proposal distributions that closely mimic the posterior distributions. We show how to combine INS with deep learning via neural network regression to accomplish this task. We also introduce nautilus, a reference open-source python implementation of this technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation. We compare nautilus against popular NS and MCMC packages, including emcee, dynesty, ultranest, and pocomc, on a variety of challenging synthetic problems and real-world applications in exoplanet detection, galaxy SED fitting and cosmology. In all applications, the sampling efficiency of nautilus is substantially higher than that of all other samplers, often by more than an order of magnitude. Simultaneously, nautilus delivers highly accurate results and needs fewer likelihood evaluations than all other samplers tested. We also show that nautilus has good scaling with the dimensionality of the likelihood and is easily parallelizable to many CPUs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections and stiffness of dense nuclear matter from Bayesian analyses of FOPI proton-flow excitation functions

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian process (GP) emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions with momentum-independent Skyrme interactions, we infer from the proton directed and elliptical flow in mid-central Au + Au reactions, measured at beam energies from 150 to 1200 MeV/nucleon by the FOPI Collaboration, the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section (BBSCS) modification factor 𝑋 (with respect to their free-space values) and the stiffness parameter 𝐾 of dense nuclear matter. Here, we find that the most probable value of 𝑋 evolves from around 0.7 to 1.0 as the beam energy 𝐸 beam /𝐴 increases. On the other hand, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) may have dual peaks having roughly the same height or extended shoulders at high 𝐾 values. More quantitatively, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) changes from having a major peak around 220 MeV, characterizing a soft EOS in the reaction at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 = 150 MeV, to one that peaks around 320 MeV, indicating a stiff EOS in the reactions at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 higher than about 600 MeV. The transition from soft to stiff happens in mid-central Au + Au reactions at beam energies around 250 MeV/nucleon in which 𝐾 = 220 MeV and 𝐾 = 320 MeV are approximately equally probable. Altogether, the FOPI proton-flow excitation function data indicate a gradual hardening of hot and dense nuclear matter as its density and temperature increase in reactions with higher beam energies.

nuclear matter↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Impala's horn applied to posterior samples of Ti-6Al-4V strength model parameters

We have generated strength model parameters for the Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) model of plastic deformation based on a collection of Ti-6Al-4V alloy data and a Bayesian framework. This data collected from the literature includes different chemistries and processes. The experiments include quasistatic compression, Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB) compression, and Taylor cylinders. Here we use posterior parameter distributions applied to a hypothetical impact referred to as the Impala's horn. The Impala's horn is like a Taylor cylinder, but modified to have a conical pro le that is truncated before coming to a point. The smaller diameter at the impact end results in higher calculated strain rates and strains than the same velocity impact with the traditional Taylor profile. The modified geometry exercises the behavior of the strength model outside the range of conditions found in the calibration data. Here we sort posterior strength models based on their flow stress at characteristic values for this hypothetical deformation. Then we compare the performance of these posterior models based on two simple observable final state properties of the Impala's horn.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recovering non-Maxwellian particle velocity distribution functions from collective Thomson-scattered spectra

Collective optical Thomson scattering (TS) is a diagnostic commonly used to characterize plasma parameters. These parameters are typically extracted by a fitting algorithm that minimizes the difference between a measured scattered spectrum and an analytic spectrum calculated from the velocity distribution function (VDF) of the plasma. However, most existing TS analysis algorithms assume that the VDFs are Maxwellian, and applying an algorithm that makes this assumption does not accurately extract the plasma parameters of a non-Maxwellian plasma due to the effect of non-Maxwellian deviations on the TS spectra. We present new open-source numerical tools for forward modeling analytic spectra from arbitrary VDFs and show that these tools are able to more accurately extract plasma parameters from synthetic TS spectra generated by non-Maxwellian VDFs compared to standard TS algorithms. Estimated posterior probability distributions of fits to synthetic spectra for a variety of example non-Maxwellian VDFs are used to determine uncertainties in the extracted plasma parameters and show that correlations between parameters can significantly affect the accuracy of fits in plasmas with non-Maxwellian VDFs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of Stochastic reaction networks using Multifidelity Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells.These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not directly measurable and must be inferred from experimental data. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous probabilistic frame-work for identifying these parameters by finding a posterior parameter distribution that captures their uncertainty.Traditional computational methods for solving inference problems such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm involve numerous serial evaluations of the likelihood function, which in turn requires expensive forward solutions of the chemical master equation (CME). We propose an alternate approach based on a multifidelity extension of the Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ST-MCMC) sampler. This algorithm is built upon Sequential Monte Carlo and solves the Bayesian inference problem by decomposing it into a sequence of efficiently solved subproblems that gradually increase both model fidelity and the influence of the observed data. We reformulate the finite state projection (FSP) algorithm, a well-known method for solving the CME, to produce a hierarchy of surrogate master equations to be used in this multifidelity scheme. To determine the appropriate fidelity, we introduce a novel information-theoretic criteria that seeks to extract the most information about the ultimate Bayesian posterior from each model in the hierarchy without inducing significant bias. This novel sampling scheme is tested with high performance computing resources using biologically relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description

A novel framework is proposed for the bulk parameterization of rain microphysics: the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS). It is designed to facilitate direct constraint by observations using Bayesian inference. BOSS combines existing process-level microphysical knowledge with flexible process rate formulations and parameters constrained by observations within a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, using a raindrop size distribution (DSD) normalization method that relates DSD moments to one another via generalized power series, generalized multivariate power expressions are derived for the microphysical process rates as functions of a set of prognostic DSD moments. The scheme is flexible and can utilize any number and combination of prognostic moments and any number of terms in the process rate formulations. This means that both uncertainty in parameter values and structural uncertainty associated with the process rate formulations can be investigated systematically, which is not possible using traditional schemes. In this paper, BOSS is compared to two- and three-moment versions of a traditional bulk rain microphysics scheme (denoted as MORR). It is demonstrated that some process formulations in MORR are analytically equivalent to the generalized power expressions in BOSS using one or two terms, while others are not. BOSS is able to replicate the behavior of MORR in idealized one-dimensional rainshaft tests, but with a much more flexible and systematic design. Part II of this study describes the application of BOSS to derive rain microphysical process rates and posterior parameter distributions in Bayesian experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling constrained by synthetic observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detecting low-mass perturbers in cluster lenses using curved arc bases

ABSTRACT Strong gravitationally lensed arcs produced by galaxy clusters have been observationally detected for several decades now. These strong lensing constraints provided high-fidelity mass models for cluster lenses that include substructure down to $10^{9{-}10}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$. Optimizing lens models, where the cluster mass distribution is modelled by a smooth component and subhaloes associated with the locations of individual cluster galaxies, has enabled deriving the subhalo mass function, providing important constraints on the nature and granularity of dark matter. In this work, we explore and present a novel method to detect and measure individual perturbers (subhaloes, line-of-sight haloes, and wandering supermassive black holes) by exploiting their proximity to highly distorted lensed arcs in galaxy clusters, and by modelling the local lensing distortions with curved arc bases. This method offers the possibility of detecting individual low-mass perturber subhaloes in clusters and haloes along the line of sight down to a mass resolution of $10^8\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$. We quantify our sensitivity to low-mass perturbers ($M\sim 10^{7{-}9}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$) in clusters (M ∼ 1014–15 M⊙), by creating realistic mock data. Using three lensed images of a background galaxy in the cluster SMACS J0723, taken by JWST, we study the retrieval of the properties of potential perturbers with masses $M=10^{7{-}9}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$. From the derived posterior probability distributions for the perturber, we constrain its concentration, redshift, and ellipticity. By allowing us to probe lower mass substructures, the use of curved arc bases can lead to powerful constraints on the nature of dark matter as discrimination between dark matter models appears on smaller scales.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parameter inference with non-linear galaxy clustering: accounting for theoretical uncertainties

ABSTRACT We implement euclidemulator (version 1), an emulator for the non-linear correction of the matter power spectrum, into the Markov chain Monte Carlo forecasting code montepython. We compare the performance of halofit, hmcode, and euclidemulator1, both at the level of power spectrum prediction and at the level of posterior probability distributions of the cosmological parameters, for different cosmological models and different galaxy power spectrum wavenumber cut-offs. We confirm that the choice of the power spectrum predictor has a non-negligible effect on the computed sensitivities when doing cosmological parameter forecasting, even for a conservative wavenumber cut-off of $0.2\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. We find that euclidemulator1 is on average up to 17 per cent more sensitive to the cosmological parameters than the other two codes, with the most significant improvements being for the Hubble parameter of up to 42 per cent and the equation of state of dark energy of up to 26 per cent, depending on the case. In addition, we point out that the choice of the power spectrum predictor contributes to the risk of computing a significantly biased mean cosmology when doing parameter estimations. For the four tested scenarios we find biases, averaged over the cosmological parameters, of between 0.5σ and 2σ (from below 1σ up to 6σ for individual parameters). This paper provides a proof of concept that this risk can be mitigated by taking a well-tailored theoretical uncertainty into account as this allows to reduce the bias by a factor of 2 to 5, depending on the case under consideration, while keeping posterior credibility contours small: the standard deviations are amplified by a factor of ≤1.4 in all cases.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]

Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generalized fiducial inference on differentiable manifolds

We introduce a novel approach to inference on parameters that take values in a Riemannian manifold embedded in a Euclidean space. Parameter spaces of this form are ubiquitous across many fields, including chemistry, physics, computer graphics, and geology. Here, this new approach uses generalized fiducial inference (GFI) to obtain a posterior-like distribution on the manifold, without needing to know local parameterizations that map to the constrained space from an unconstrained Euclidean space. Using mathematical tools from Riemannian geometry, we construct a constrained generalized fiducial distribution (CGFD). A Bernstein-von Mises-type result for the CGFD, which provides intuition for how the desirable asymptotic qualities of the unconstrained generalized fiducial distribution are inherited by the CGFD, is provided. To illustrate the practical use of the CGFD, we provide a proof-of-concept example in the context of a linear logspline density estimation problem, and demonstrate that CGFD-based confidence sets exhibit desirable coverage properties via simulation. As an application, we fit a CGFD to COVID-19 case count data from North Carolina, USA.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inference of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections from HADES proton flow data

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian Process emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate energies, we infer from the HADES proton flow data the posterior probability distribution functions of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section modification factor X with respect to free-space and the corresponding incompressibility K of nuclear matter as well as their correlation function. In conclusion, the mean value of X is found to be $X$ = $1.32_ {+0.28} ^ {-0.40} $ at 68% confidence level assuming the nuclear incompressibility K will not exceed 400 MeV, providing circumstantial evidence for enhanced baryon-braryon scattering cross sections in hot and dense nuclear matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗