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At least 181 records · Page 10

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗

Large reductions in Permian Basin methane intensity shown in multi-year comparison of aerially-visible methane emissions

Spanning the US states of Texas and New Mexico, the Permian Basin has been a hotspot of methane emissions from oil and natural gas activity 1–4, although studies disagree over the magnitude of these emissions. The most comprehensive measurement campaigns published were conducted in 2019 1–5 .There have been large changes in the energy industry since then, including in the prices of oil and gas, both state and federal regulatory environments, investor and activist pressure over methane emissions, and the adoption of new technologies and policies by energy operators. Understanding how any or all of these might influence methane emissions is important for policy makers, oil and gas operators, and other stakeholders. We characterize the time evolution of Permian Basin methane emissions using a series of comprehensive aerial surveys conducted every year from 2020-2023 and compare them to the 2019 results cited above. To maintain comparability, all the data sets are from surveys using Insight M point source methane sensing technology. The scope of these surveys expanded over time: from 33-46% of wells, oil production, and gas production in 2020 to 60-65% in 2021, to 84% of wells and over 90% of both oil and gas production in 2023. These surveys by Insight M also include hundreds of gas processing plants and compressor stations as well as 1000s of km of gathering and transmission pipelines. Considering only the aerially detected portion of emissions (typically the majority of the total in such surveys 4), we find reductions of more than 70% in methane emissions intensity compared to the 2019 New Mexico-only Insight M survey, with variation depending on the year 3,4. Notably, although sources below 100 kg/hr contributed less than 10% of aerially measured emissions the 2019 New Mexico survey 3, these smaller sources constitute a larger proportion of total aerially measured emissions (although not the majority) in 2020-2023. Production facilities and gathering pipelines are responsible for the larges shares of total emissions, followed by compressor stations and gas processing plants. Permian methane emissions were also measured in a comprehensive 2019 Permian-wide survey by the Carbon Mapper team 2. That analysis led to a lower total emissions estimate at the time 4. These new Insight M-based emission rates are still roughly 30-70% lower than the aerially measured portion of the 2019 Carbon Mapper-based estimates 4. Further work is needed to harmonize these surveys in space and time to create the most intercomparable numbers possible 5. Additional analysis is needed to compare our findings to the more spatially constrained 2020, 2021, and 2023 Carbon Mapper surveys in the Permian 4,6. The evidence is strong from these two survey teams that emissions intensity has declined significantly since 2019. Reasons for this trend are currently unclear but point to possible success of emissions control programs. Future work investigating frequency, source, and operator-specific intensities could provide insights into the causes of this promising trend.

methane, oil and gas, data science, remote sensing↗

Astrophysical Neutrino Sources as Colliders

High-energy neutrinos arise from processes at large center-of-mass energies, offering a window to test physics at comparable scales or beyond those accessible in collider experiments on Earth. Here, we present a recipe for extracting two-sided bounds on the inelastic $pp$ and $pγ$ cross sections from neutrino point-source data, by independently constraining every astrophysical input (cosmic-ray luminosities and target densities) through electromagnetic observations or theoretical arguments. The cross section is then the only remaining free parameter. Applying this framework to the IceCube associations with TXS~0506+056, NGC~1068, and the Galactic Plane, to a stacked population of eleven X-ray bright Seyfert galaxies, to the ultra-high-energy KM3NeT event KM3-230213A, and to projected observations of ultra-high-energy neutrinos, we obtain constraints that span center-of-mass energies from $\sqrt{s}\sim 1$ GeV to $\sim 10^{5}$ GeV, some of which are well beyond the reach of the LHC and, for the $pγ$ channel, beyond HERA. Several of these bounds are more stringent than unitarity limits.

Argüelles, Carlos A. [Harvard U.]↗

Use of Tracer Elements for Estimating Community Exposure to Marcellus Shale Development Operations

Since 2009, unconventional natural gas development (UNGD) has significantly increased in Appalachia’s Marcellus Shale formation. Elevations of fine particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), have been documented in areas surrounding drilling operations during well stimulation. Furthermore, many communities are experiencing increased industrial activities and probable UNGD air pollutant exposures. Recent studies have associated UNGD emissions with health effects based on distances from well pads. In this study, PM2.5 filter samples were collected on an active gas well pad in Morgantown, West Virginia, and three locations downwind during hydraulic stimulation. Fine particulate samples were analyzed for major and trace elements. An experimental source identification model was developed to determine which elements appeared to be traceable downwind of the UNGD site and whether these elements corresponded to PM2.5 measurements. Results suggest that 1) magnesium may be useful for detecting the reach of UNGD point source emissions, 2) complex surface topographic and meteorological conditions in the Marcellus Shale region could be modeled and confounding sources discounted, and 3) well pad emissions may be measurable at distances of at least 7 km. If shown to be more widely applicable, future tracer studies could enhance epidemiological studies showing health effects of UNGD-associated emissions at ≥15 km.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Discovering vanishing objects in POSS I red images using the Virtual Observatory

ABSTRACT In this paper, we report a search for vanishing sources in POSS I red images using virtual observatory (VO) archives, tools, and services. The search, conducted in the framework of the VASCO project, aims at finding POSS I (red) sources not present in recent catalogues like Pan-STARRS DR2 (limiting magnitude r = 21.4) or Gaia EDR3 (limiting magnitude G = 21). We found 298 165 sources visible only in POSS I plates, out of which 288 770 had a cross-match within 5 arcsec in other archives (mainly in the infrared), 189 were classified as asteroids, 35 as variable objects, 3592 as artefacts from the comparison to a second digitization (Supercosmos), and 180 as high proper motion objects without information on proper motion in Gaia EDR3. The remaining unidentified transients (5399) as well as the 172 163 sources not detected in the optical but identified in the infrared regime are available from a VO compliant archive and can be of interest in searches for strong M-dwarf flares, high-redshift supernovae, asteroids, or other categories of unidentified red transients. No point sources were detected by both POSS-I and POSS-II before vanishing, setting the rate of failed supernovae in the Milky Way during 70 yr to less than one in one billion.

Solano, Enrique↗

Surrogate Distributed Radiological Sources—Part III: Quantitative Distributed Source Reconstructions

In this third part of a multi-paper series, we present quantitative image reconstruction results from aerial measurements of eight different surrogate distributed gamma-ray sources on flat terrain. Here, we show that our quantitative imaging methods can accurately reconstruct the expected shapes, and, after appropriate calibration, the absolute activity of the distributed sources. We conduct several studies of imaging performance versus various measurement and reconstruction parameters, including detector altitude and raster pass spacing, data and modeling fidelity, and regularization type and strength. The imaging quality performance is quantified using various quantitative image quality metrics. Our results confirm the utility of point source arrays as surrogates for truly distributed radiological sources, and advance the quantitative capabilities of Scene Data Fusion gamma-ray imaging methods.

Airborne survey↗

The Galactic Annihilation Line Explorer (GALE): Balloon-borne Mission to study Galactic 511-keV annihilation emission

The Galactic Annihilation Line Explorer (GALE) mission will address the long-standing question of the sources of Galactic positrons: whether they are produced by unresolved astrophysical sources or created via diffuse processes, possibly due to dark matter decay and/or annihilation. The problem of Galactic positrons that produce 511-keV gamma-ray emission from the Galactic plane and Galactic Center has existed for years and is well-defined by the measurements of INTEGRAL/SPI. GALE is designed to achieve the needed angular resolution (fraction of a degree) and point source sensitivity (< 10−4 ph/cm2/s) required to understand the 511-keV emission structure in the Galactic Center. The GALE instrument combines a coded-aperture mask (CAM) with a cadmium-zinc-telluride imaging calorimeter (ImCal) to form a combined CAM/Compton telescope. This is mated with the Wallops Arc-Second Pointer (WASP) support system to achieve the precise telescope pointing control required for imaging the Galactic Center. In this paper, the science goals, GALE instrument concept, anticipated performance and mission results will be discussed.

Moiseev, Alex A [University of Maryland, College P↗

Analytical formula for pellet fuel source density in toroidal plasma configurations based on an areal deposition model

An analytical formula for the fuel source density η F (&Psi;) over a magnetic flux surface &Psi; following pellet injection is derived. During pellet motion the ablated and ionized fuel will be initially deposited nearby the pellet, prior to subsequent homogenization within the magnetic flux surfaces. Here in our research, it is assumed that the deposition area projected normal to the magnetic field is on the order of the cross-sectional area of the ionized ablation column whose axis is aligned with the magnetic field. Previous pellet deposition codes [1] employed a point source deposition approximation, which overpredicts the surface-averaged density, particularly when the obliquity between the pellet trajectory and the flux surface normal approaches 90 degrees. A key finding of this study is that as the obliquity approaches 90 degrees, grazing trajectory, the areal model predicts a well behaved η F and removes the unphysical divergence stemming from the point model. To illustrate the difference exhibited between areal and point models for near grazing trajectories, we considered vertical pellet injection into a CFETR-like tokamak with a negative triangularity plasma cross section using a pellet ablation/deposition module.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Subcritical Multiplication with a Fixed Source

In a subcritical, multiplying medium, the system multiplication describes the expected total number of neutrons created by a single source neutron. Subcriticality plays a large role in criticality safety and thus it is vital for the subcritical multiplication factor be accurate, especially as a system approaches criticality. This work examines the accuracy of calculating the system multiplication using the MCNP6.2 ® k-eigenvalue power iteration (KCODE) method when a fixed-point source is present in a multiplying medium, for near critical systems. This work compares the standard approach for calculating system multiplication, using the fixed-source calculational approach, to a new, single k-eigenvalue power iteration approach that incorporates a fixed-source component and a fission-source component into a single calculation. For the remainder of this paper, some theoretical background and numerical results for an approximate k eigenvalue approach, an accurate fixed-source approach and a new and more accurate k-eigenvalue approach to computing system multiplication are provided.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Radiation Mapping for an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle: Development and Simulated Testing of Algorithms for Source Mapping and Navigation Path Generation

Image reconstruction algorithms were developed for radiation source mapping and used for generating the search path of a moving radiation detector, such as one onboard an unmanned aerial vehicle. Simulations consisted of first assuming radioactive sources of varying complexity and estimating the radiation fields that would then be produced by that source distribution. Next, the "measurements" that would result from a pair of adjacent spatial locations were computed. A crude estimate of the source distribution likely to have produced such "measurements" was reconstructed based upon the limited measurements. Location of the next "measurement" was then determined as halfway between the location of the estimated source and the current "measurement." With each additional sample, improved source distribution reconstructions were made and used to inform the immediate direction of detector motion. Source reconstruction or mapping was formulated as an inverse problem solved with either maximum a posteriori or least squares (LS) regression deconvolution methods. Different amounts of noise were added to the simulated "measurements," allowing evaluation of the methods' performances as functions of signal-to-noise ratio of the measured map. As expected, methods that promote sparsity were better suited in reconstructing point sources. Reliable prior information of the source distribution also improved the reconstruction results, especially with distributed sources. With a non-negative least square algorithm and the suggested paths it generated, location of sources was successfully estimated to an accuracy of 0.014 m within nine iterations in a single-source scenario and 12 iterations in a two-source scenario, given a 10% error on the integrated counts and a Poisson distribution of the noise associated with the measured counts.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Discovery and Timing of Three Millisecond Pulsars in Radio and Gamma-Rays with the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope and Fermi Large Area Telescope

In this work, we performed deep observations to search for radio pulsations in the directions of 375 unassociated Fermi Large Area Telescope γ-ray sources using the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) at 322 and 607 MHz. In this paper we report the discovery of three millisecond pulsars (MSPs), PSR J0248+4230, PSR J1207–5050, and PSR J1536–4948. We conducted follow-up timing observations for ~5 yr with the GMRT and derived phase-coherent timing models for these MSPs. PSR J0248+4230 and J1207–5050 are isolated MSPs having periodicities of 2.60 ms and 4.84 ms. PSR J1536–4948 is a 3.07 ms pulsar in a binary system with an orbital period of ~62 days about a companion of a minimum mass of 0.32 M⊙. We also present multifrequency pulse profiles of these MSPs from the GMRT observations. PSR J1536–4948 is an MSP with an extremely wide pulse profile having multiple components. Using the radio timing ephemeris we subsequently detected γ-ray pulsations from these three MSPs, confirming them as the sources powering the γ-ray emission. For PSR J1536–4948 we performed combined radio–γ-ray timing using ~11.6 yr of γ-ray pulse times of arrival (TOAs) along with the radio TOAs. PSR J1536–4948 also shows evidence for pulsed γ-ray emission out to above 25 GeV, confirming earlier associations of this MSP with a ≥10 GeV point source. The multiwavelength pulse profiles of all three MSPs offer challenges to models of radio and γ-ray emission in pulsar magnetospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SimCCS: CCS Infrastructure Decision Support [Slides]

SimCCS can help determine optimal, regional network of CO 2 sources, CO 2 sinks and CO 2 transport infrastructure that meet desired CCS goals. Deployment of large-scale CCS will require large-scale regional infrastructure. Strategic investments in developing regional CO 2 transportation infrastructure can facilitate timely CCS deployment (including at large-scale). Economies of scale can help to minimize costs. Development of effective & efficient CCS infrastructure requires taking into consideration characteristics of point sources (for capture), region (for transport) and sinks (for storage).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the Viability of Video Imaging in Leak Rate Quantification: A Theoretical Error Analysis

Optical gas imaging through multispectral cameras is a promising technique for mitigation of methane emissions through localization and quantification of emissions sources. While more advanced cameras developed in recent years have led to lower uncertainties in measuring gas concentrations, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties associated with leak rate estimation have been overlooked. We present a systematic categorization of the involved uncertainties with a focus on a theoretical analysis of projection uncertainties that are inherent to this technique. The projection uncertainties are then quantified using Large Eddy Simulation experiments of a point source release into the atmosphere. Our results show that while projection uncertainties are typically about 5% of the emission rate, low acquisition times and observation of the gas plume at small distances from the emission source (<10 m) can amount to errors of about 20%. Further, we found that acquisition times on the order of tens of seconds are sufficient to significantly reduce (>50%) the projection uncertainties. These findings suggest robust procedures on how to reduce projection uncertainties, however, a balance between other sources of uncertainty due to operational conditions and the employed instrumentation are required to outline more practical guidelines.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

MIXv2: a long-term mosaic emission inventory for Asia (2010–2017)

The MIXv2 Asian emission inventory is developed under the framework of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase IV and produced from a mosaic of up-to-date regional emission inventories. We estimated the emissions for anthropogenic and biomass burning sources covering 23 countries and regions in East, Southeast and South Asia and aggregated emissions to a uniform spatial and temporal resolution for seven sectors: power, industry, residential, transportation, agriculture, open biomass burning and shipping. Compared to MIXv1, we extended the dataset to 2010–2017, included emissions of open biomass burning and shipping, and provided model-ready emissions of SAPRC99, SAPRC07, and CB05. A series of unit-based point source information was incorporated covering power plants in China and India. A consistent speciation framework for non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) was applied to develop emissions by three chemical mechanisms. The total Asian emissions for anthropogenic/open biomass sectors in 2017 are estimated as follows: 41.6/1.1 Tg NO x , 33.2/0.1 Tg SO 2 , 258.2/20.6 Tg CO, 61.8/8.2 Tg NMVOC, 28.3/0.3 Tg NH 3 , 24.0/2.6 Tg PM 10 , 16.7/2.0 Tg PM 2.5 , 2.7/0.1 Tg BC (black carbon), 5.3/0.9 Tg OC (organic carbon), and 18.0/0.4 Pg CO 2 . The contributions of India and Southeast Asia were emerging in Asia during 2010–2017, especially for SO 2 , NH 3 and particulate matter. Gridded emissions at a spatial resolution of 0.1° with monthly variations are now publicly available. This updated long-term emission mosaic inventory is ready to facilitate air quality and climate model simulations, as well as policymaking and associated analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Upstream considerations for gas fermentation processes

Gas fermentation enables the production of fuels, chemicals, and foods from gaseous carbon sources and could serve as a technology for valorizing carbon that may otherwise be emitted to the atmosphere. In this review, we focus on upstream feedstock considerations: the supply of carbon and the supply of electrical power. Electrical power serves a dual role, providing both process energy and biochemical redox potential (via hydrogen or reduced intermediates). We define gas fermentation as bioprocesses involving gaseous feedstocks metabolized by microbes, distinct from microbial electrosynthesis. Trends in CO 2 point sources and low-carbon electricity systems are analyzed, highlighting opportunities and challenges for future deployment. This review synthesizes current knowledge and identifies key R&D priorities for process integration at industrial scale.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Regional Source-Type Discrimination Using Nonlinear Alignment Algorithms

The discrimination problem in seismology aims to accurately classify different underground source types based on local, regional, and/or teleseismic observations of ground motion. Typical discriminant approaches are rooted in fundamental, physics-based differences in radiation pattern or wave excitation, which can be frequency-dependent and may not make use of the full waveform. In this article, we explore whether phase and amplitude distances derived from dynamic time warping (DTW) and elastic shape analysis (ESA) can inform event discrimination. We demonstrate the ability to distinguish underground point sources using synthetic waveforms calculated for a 1D Earth model and various source mechanisms. We then apply the method to recorded data from events in the Korean Peninsula, which includes declared nuclear explosions, a collapse event, and naturally occurring earthquakes. Phase and amplitude distances derived from DTW and ESA are then used to classify the event types via dendrogram and k-nearest-neighbor clustering analyses. Using information from the full waveform, we show how different underground sources can be distinguished at regional distances. We highlight the potential of these nonlinear alignment algorithms for discrimination and comment on ways we can extend the framework presented here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of Source Geometry on Detector Response Matrix Efficiency: Simulations of the PFUNS-MUSiC Experiments

This work looks at two different bare highly enriched uranium (HEU) systems, configuration one from Measurements of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) and Prompt Fission Uranium Neutron Spectrum (PFUNS) to see the effect geometry has on detector efficiency and the response matrix. The distance from the multiplying source, the medium between the source and detector, and the geometry of the source all play a part in the efficiency of the detector. These factors are especially important when performing spectrum unfolding. Spectrum unfolding is a process used to reconstruct a true spectrum from measured detector response data. It involves interpreting a set of measured values, such as a light signal from a scintillator, to recover the original neutron energy spectrum. This leads to the question, how much will the efficiency of a detector change when you measure a point source compared to an extended source? The distance and solid angle from the source to the detector may be different. It may only be a minuscule change, but in the spectrum unfolding process it can have a considerable effect on the unfolded spectrum

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Observation of high-energy neutrinos from the Galactic plane

The origin of high-energy cosmic rays, atomic nuclei that continuously impact Earth’s atmosphere, is unknown. Because of deflection by interstellar magnetic fields, cosmic rays produced within the Milky Way arrive at Earth from random directions. However, cosmic rays interact with matter near their sources and during propagation, which produces high-energy neutrinos. We searched for neutrino emission using machine learning techniques applied to 10 years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By comparing diffuse emission models to a background-only hypothesis, we identified neutrino emission from the Galactic plane at the 4.5σ level of significance. The signal is consistent with diffuse emission of neutrinos from the Milky Way but could also arise from a population of unresolved point sources.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗