Results for “Operator regression” — Page 10

NASA NTRS2006

A LEAST ABSOLUTE SHRINKAGE AND SELECTION OPERATOR (LASSO) FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION

Identification of parametric nonlinear models involves estimating unknown parameters and detecting its underlying structure. Structure computation is concerned with selecting a subset of parameters to give a parsimonious description of the system which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of nonlinear systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares by the addition of a 1 penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional 2 minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudolinear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. The performance of this LASSO structure detection method was evaluated by using it to estimate the structure of a nonlinear polynomial model. Applicability of the method to more complex systems such as those encountered in aerospace applications was shown by identifying a parsimonious system description of the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing using flight test data.

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow.

trajectory prediction↗

NASA NTRS2017

Characterization, Operation and Analysis of Test Motors Containing Aluminized Hybrid Fuels

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's Materials and Processes Department, with support from the Propulsion Systems Department, has renewed the development and maintenance of a hybrid test bed for exposing ablative thermal protection materials to an environment similar to that seen in solid rocket motors (SRM). The Solid Fuel Torch (SFT), operated during the Space Shuttle program, utilized gaseous oxygen for oxidizer and an aluminized hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) fuel grain to expose a converging section of phenolic material to a 400 psi, 2-phase flow combustion environment. The configuration allows for up to a 2 foot long, 5 inch diameter fuel grain cartridge. Wanting to now test rubber insulation materials with a turn-back feature to mimic the geometry of an aft dome being impinged by alumina particles, the throat area has now been increased by several times to afford flow similarity. Combined with the desire to maintain a higher operating pressure, the oxidizer flow rate is being increased by a factor of 10. Out of these changes has arisen the need to characterize the fuel/oxidizer combination in a higher mass flux condition than has been previously tested at MSFC, and at which the literature has little to no reporting as well. Testing for fuel regression rate comprised a two-level, full factorial design available over Aluminum loading level, mass flow rate, pressure, and diameter. The data taken significantly surpasses the previous available data on regression rate of aluminized HTPB fuel burning with gaseous oxygen. It encompasses higher mass fluxes, and appears to generate more consistent data. The good test article and facility design and testing work of the Penn State HPCL combined with careful analysis of the data and good planning has made this possible. This should be able to assist with developing rate laws that are useful both for research planning and for developing flight system sizing relationships that can help optimize hybrid rocket concepts for trade studies. The successful approach of this DOE and test setup is applicable to other propellant combinations as well.

Kibbey, Timothy P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Characterization, Operation and Analysis of Test Motors Containing Aluminized Hybrid Fuels

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's Materials and Processes Department, with support from the Propulsion Systems Department, has renewed the development and maintenance of a hybrid test bed for exposing ablative thermal protection materials to an environment similar to that seen in solid rocket motors (SRM). The Solid Fuel Torch (SFT), operated during the Space Shuttle program, utilized gaseous oxygen for oxidizer and an aluminized hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene (HTPB) fuel grain to expose a converging section of phenolic material to a 400 psi, 2-phase flow combustion environment. The configuration allows for up to a 2 foot long, 5 inch diameter fuel grain cartridge. Wanting to now test rubber insulation materials with a turn-back feature to mimic the geometry of an aft dome being impinged by alumina particles, the throat area has now been increased by several times to afford flow similarity. Combined with the desire to maintain a higher operating pressure, the oxidizer flow rate is being increased by a factor of 10. Out of these changes has arisen the need to characterize the fuel/oxidizer combination in a higher mass flux condition than has been previously tested at MSFC, and at which the literature has little to no reporting as well. Testing for fuel regression rate comprised a two-level, full factorial design available over Aluminum loading level, mass flow rate, pressure, and diameter. The data taken significantly surpasses the previous available data on regression rate of aluminized HTPB fuel burning with gaseous oxygen. It encompasses higher mass fluxes, and appears to generate more consistent data. The good test article and facility design and testing work of the Penn State HPCL combined with careful analysis of the data and good planning has made this possible. This should be able to assist with developing rate laws that are useful both for research planning and for developing flight system sizing relationships that can help optimize hybrid rocket concepts for trade studies. The successful approach of this DOE and test setup is applicable to other propellant combinations as well.

Kibbey, Timothy P.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Development of LACIE CCEA-1 weather/wheat yield models

The advantages and disadvantages of the casual (phenological, dynamic, physiological), statistical regression, and analog approaches to modeling for grain yield are examined. Given LACIE's primary goal of estimating wheat production for the large areas of eight major wheat-growing regions, the statistical regression approach of correlating historical yield and climate data offered the Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment the greatest potential return within the constraints of time and data sources. The basic equation for the first generation wheat-yield model is given. Topics discussed include truncation, trend variable, selection of weather variables, episodic events, strata selection, operational data flow, weighting, and model results.

Strommen, N. D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Regression Analysis of Long-term Profile Ozone Data Set from BUV Instruments

We have produced a profile merged ozone data set (MOD) based on the SBUV/SBUV2 series of nadir-viewing satellite backscatter instruments, covering the period from November 1978 - December 2003. In 2004, data from the Nimbus 7 SBUV and NOAA 9,11, and 16 SBUV/2 instruments were reprocessed using the Version 8 (V8) algorithm and most recent calibrations. More recently, data from the Nimbus 4 BUV instrument, which operated from 1970 - 1977, were also reprocessed using the V8 algorithm. As part of the V8 profile calibration, the Nimbus 7 and NOAA 9 (1993-1997 only) instrument calibrations have been adjusted to match the NOAA 11 calibration, which was established from comparisons with SSBUV shuttle flight data. Given the level of agreement between the data sets, we simply average the ozone values during periods of instrument overlap to produce the MOD profile data set. We use statistical time-series analysis of the MOD profile data set (1978-2003) to estimate the change in profile ozone due to changing stratospheric chlorine levels. The Nimbus 4 BUV data offer an opportunity to test the physical properties of our statistical model. We extrapolate our statistical model fit backwards in time and compare to the Nimbus 4 data. We compare the statistics of the residuals from the fit for the Nimbus 4 period to those obtained from the 1978-2003 period over which the statistical model coefficients were estimated.

Frith, Stacey↗

NASA NTRS2007

Processing AIRS Scientific Data Through Level 2

The Atmospheric Infrared Spectrometer (AIRS) Science Processing System (SPS) is a collection of computer programs, denoted product generation executives (PGEs), for processing the readings of the AIRS suite of infrared and microwave instruments orbiting the Earth aboard NASA s Aqua spacecraft. AIRS SPS at an earlier stage of development was described in "Initial Processing of Infrared Spectral Data' (NPO-35243), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 11 (November 2004), page 39. To recapitulate: Starting from level 0 (representing raw AIRS data), the PGEs and their data products are denoted by alphanumeric labels (1A, 1B, and 2) that signify the successive stages of processing. The cited prior article described processing through level 1B (the level-2 PGEs were not yet operational). The level-2 PGEs, which are now operational, receive packages of level-1B geolocated radiance data products and produce such geolocated geophysical atmospheric data products such as temperature and humidity profiles. The process of computing these geophysical data products is denoted "retrieval" and is quite complex. The main steps of the process are denoted microwave-only retrieval, cloud detection and cloud clearing, regression, full retrieval, and rapid transmittance algorithm.

Oliphant, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2017

Evaluating Soil Moisture Retrievals from ESA's SMOS and NASA's SMAP Brightness Temperature Datasets

Two satellites are currently monitoring surface soil moisture (SM) using L-band observations: SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity), a joint ESA (European Space Agency), CNES (Centre national d'tudes spatiales), and CDTI (the Spanish government agency with responsibility for space) satellite launched on November 2, 2009 and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive), a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellite successfully launched in January 2015. In this study, we used a multilinear regression approach to retrieve SM from SMAP data to create a global dataset of SM, which is consistent with SM data retrieved from SMOS. This was achieved by calibrating coefficients of the regression model using the CATDS (Centre Aval de Traitement des Donnes) SMOS Level 3 SM and the horizontally and vertically polarized brightness temperatures (TB) at 40 deg incidence angle, over the 2013 - 2014 period. Next, this model was applied to SMAP L3 TB data from Apr 2015 to Jul 2016. The retrieved SM from SMAP (referred to here as SMAP_Reg) was compared to: (i) the operational SMAP L3 SM (SMAP_SCA), retrieved using the baseline Single Channel retrieval Algorithm (SCA); and (ii) the operational SMOSL3 SM, derived from the multiangular inversion of the L-MEB model (L-MEB algorithm) (SMOSL3). This inter-comparison was made against in situ soil moisture measurements from more than 400 sites spread over the globe, which are used here as a reference soil moisture dataset. The in situ observations were obtained from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN; https:ismn.geo.tuwien.ac.at) in North of America (PBO_H2O, SCAN, SNOTEL, iRON, and USCRN), in Australia (Oznet), Africa (DAHRA), and in Europe (REMEDHUS, SMOSMANIA, FMI, and RSMN). The agreement was analyzed in terms of four classical statistical criteria: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE),Bias, Unbiased RMSE (UnbRMSE), and correlation coefficient (R). Results of the comparison of these various products with in situ observations show that the performance of both SMAP products i.e. SMAP_SCA and SMAP_Reg is 48 similar and marginally better to that of the SMOSL3 product particularly over the PBO_H2O, SCAN, and USCRN sites. However, SMOSL3 SM was closer to the in situ observations over the DAHRA and Oznet sites. We found that the correlation between all three datasets and in situ measurements is best (R 0.80) over the Oznet sites and worst (R 0.58) over the SNOTEL sites for SMAP_SCA and over the DAHRA and SMOSMANIA sites (R 0.51 and R 0.45 for SMAP_Reg and SMOSL3, respectively). The Bias values showed that all products are generally dry, except over RSMN, DAHRA, and Oznet (and FMI for SMAP_SCA). Finally, our analysis provided interesting insights that can be useful to improve the consistency between SMAP and SMOS datasets.

SMOS↗

NASA NTRS2007

Aeroelastic Model Structure Computation for Envelope Expansion

Structure detection is a procedure for selecting a subset of candidate terms, from a full model description, that best describes the observed output. This is a necessary procedure to compute an efficient system description which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. Structure computation as a tool for black-box modelling may be of critical importance in the development of robust, parsimonious models for the flight-test community. Moreover, this approach may lead to efficient strategies for rapid envelope expansion which may save significant development time and costs. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of nonlinear aeroelastic systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares by the addition of an l(sub 1) penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional 2 minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudolinear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. Applicability of this technique for model structure computation for the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing using flight test data is shown for several flight conditions (Mach numbers) by identifying a parsimonious system description with a high percent fit for cross-validated data.

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Hybrid Propulsion Technology Program

Future launch systems of the United States will require improvements in booster safety, reliability, and cost. In order to increase payload capabilities, performance improvements are also desirable. The hybrid rocket motor (HRM) offers the potential for improvements in all of these areas. The designs are presented for two sizes of hybrid boosters, a large 4.57 m (180 in.) diameter booster duplicating the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) vacuum thrust-time profile and smaller 2.44 m (96 in.), one-quater thrust level booster. The large booster would be used in tandem, while eight small boosters would be used to achieve the same total thrust. These preliminary designs were generated as part of the NASA Hybrid Propulsion Technology Program. This program is the first phase of an eventual three-phaes program culminating in the demonstration of a large subscale engine. The initial trade and sizing studies resulted in preferred motor diameters, operating pressures, nozzle geometry, and fuel grain systems for both the large and small boosters. The data were then used for specific performance predictions in terms of payload and the definition and selection of the requirements for the major components: the oxidizer feed system, nozzle, and thrust vector system. All of the parametric studies were performed using realistic fuel regression models based upon specific experimental data.

Jensen, G. E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Microbiology and Crew Medical Events on the International Space Station

The closed environment of the International Space Station (ISS) creates an ideal environment for microbial growth. Previous studies have identified the ubiquitous nature of microorganisms throughout the space station environment. To ensure safety of the crew, microbial monitoring of air and surface within ISS began in December 2000 and continues to be monitored on a quarterly basis. Water monitoring began in 2009 when the potable water dispenser was installed on ISS. However, it is unknown if high microbial counts are associated with inflight medical events. The microbial counts are determined for the air, surface, and water samples collected during flight operations and samples are returned to the Microbiology laboratory at the Johnson Space Center for identification. Instances of microbial counts above the established microbial limit requirements were noted and compared inflight medical events (any non-injury event such as illness, rashes, etc.) that were reported during the same calendar-quarter. Data were analyzed using repeated measures logistic regression for the forty-one US astronauts flew on ISS between 2000 and 2012. In that time frame, instances of microbial counts being above established limits were found for 10 times for air samples, 22 times for surface samples and twice for water. Seventy-eight inflight medical events were reported among the astronauts. A three times greater risk of a medical event was found when microbial samples were found to be high (OR = 3.01; p =.007). Engineering controls, crew training, and strict microbial limits have been established to mitigate the crew medical events and environmental risks. Due to the timing issues of sampling and the samples return to earth, identification of particular microorganisms causing a particular inflight medical event is difficult. Further analyses are underway.

Oubre, Cherie↗

NASA NTRS2014

Microbiology and Crew Medical Events on the International Space Station

The closed environment of the International Space Station (ISS) creates an ideal environment for microbial growth. Previous studies have identified the ubiquitous nature of microorganisms throughout the space station environment. To ensure safety of the crew, microbial monitoring of air and surface within ISS began in December 2000 and continues to be monitored on a quarterly basis. Water monitoring began in 2009 when the potable water dispenser was installed on ISS. However, it is unknown if high microbial counts are associated with inflight medical events. The microbial counts are determined for the air, surface, and water samples collected during flight operations and samples are returned to the Microbiology laboratory at the Johnson Space Center for identification. Instances of microbial counts above the established microbial limit requirements were noted and compared inflight medical events (any non-injury event such as illness, rashes, etc.) that were reported during the same calendar-quarter. Data were analyzed using repeated measures logistic regression for the forty-one US astronauts flew on ISS between 2000 and 2012. In that time frame, instances of microbial counts being above established limits were found for 10 times for air samples, 22 times for surface samples and twice for water. Seventy-eight inflight medical events were reported among the astronauts. A three times greater risk of a medical event was found when microbial samples were found to be high (OR = 3.01; p =.007). Engineering controls, crew training, and strict microbial limits have been established to mitigate the crew medical events and environmental risks. Due to the timing issues of sampling and the samples return to earth, identification of particular microorganisms causing a particular inflight medical event is difficult. Further analyses are underway.

Oubre, Cherie M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Potential Basin-Scale Estimates of Arctic Snow Depth with Sea Ice Freeboards from CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2: An Exploratory Analysis

The potential of deriving snow depth estimates using differences in freeboard heights from CryoSat-2 (CS-2) and ICESat-2 (IS-2) is examined. In our analysis, we use lidar freeboard from the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) on Operation IceBridge (OIB) as proxy of IS-2 total (snow plus ice) freeboard. Snow depths are estimates from the OIB snow radar. Differences in height between the total (ATM) and ice (CS-2) freeboards are related to snow depth by the refractive index of the snow layer, which is dependent on snow density. For two years (2014 and 2015), regression of the ATM and CS-2 freeboard differences against OIB snow depth gives correlations of approximately 0.80, estimated eta (sub s) of 1.21, and standard errors of 8 centimeters. The resulting refractive index, eta (sub s), can be compared to that expected of the Arctic snow cover in early spring (1.25 plus or minus 0.05). The expected biases and variability in the regression analysis are discussed. Results suggest that snow depth can be estimated from the freeboard differences. The benefits of adjusting the orbit of CS-2 for providing more optimized overlaps between IS-2 and CS-2 are considered.

Sea ice↗

NASA NTRS1993

Performance characteristics of LOX-H2, tangential-entry, swirl-coaxial, rocket injectors

Development of a high performing swirl-coaxial injector requires an understanding of fundamental performance characteristics. This paper addresses the findings of studies on cold flow atomic characterizations which provided information on the influence of fluid properties and element operating conditions on the produced droplet sprays. These findings are applied to actual rocket conditions. The performance characteristics of swirl-coaxial injection elements under multi-element hot-fire conditions were obtained by analysis of combustion performance data from three separate test series. The injection elements are described and test results are analyzed using multi-variable linear regression. A direct comparison of test results indicated that reduced fuel injection velocity improved injection element performance through improved propellant mixing.

Howell, Doug↗

NASA NTRS1985

Ozone-temperature relationships in the stratosphere

Utilizing independent estimates of ozone and temperature fields from the SBUV (Nimbus 7) and NOAA operational satellites, respectively, for the period 1978-1981, the coefficient of variation between the two parameters is determined. This coefficient is defined as A = Delta-O3 x (T)/Delta T x (O3) wehre Delta is an incremental change in either temperature or ozone and the bracket is a mean state. In practice, A is determined on a daily basis by regression of ozone mixing ratio versus temperature around a latitude circle during the winter season and the bracket value is the daily zonal average. This has the advantage of keeping the solar zenith angle fixed for a daily value while allowing it to change during the season. This is done at 30, 10, 5, 2, and 1 mb from 20 deg to 60 deg latitude in both hemispheres. The results are summarized and compared with those determined from a one-dimensional photochemical model applied to different latitudes.

Miller, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Radar estimates of soil moisture over the Konza Prairie

Radar-backscatter measurements were made to estimate soil moisture. The helicopter-mounted radar was flown along selected transects that coincided with soil-moisture measurements. The radar operated at microwave frequencies of 5.3 and 9.6 GHz and at selected incidence angles between 0 and 60 degrees. Vertical polarization was used for two days and horizontal polarization was used for three days. The scattering-coefficient data from different days were grouped by frequency and antenna angles and then related to soil moisture along the flight paths using linear regression. A measure of linearity for the regression ranged between 0.9 and 0.5. The larger coefficients were for X-band measurements made at large antenna-incidence angles, and the smaller coefficients were for C-band measurements made at incidences angles near vertical.

Gogineni, S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancements in Blowing Dust Detection at Night via Machine Learning

This presentation introduces operational users to a machine-learning based Dust Probability product developed by the NASA SPoRT program for the application of detecting and monitoring blowing dust plumes at night. Advances in earth observing satellites has improved monitoring and detection of dust both day and night through derived imagery such as the Dust RGB. However, limitations of the RGB at night result in less contrast between dust and land surface features, as seen by the user. A Machine Learning (ML) model has been developed and applied to GOES-16 ABI to overcome this limitation and improve nighttime dust detection. The ML capability is a subset of Artificial Intelligence methods. In this case the Dust ML model was developed using a simple Random Forest (RF) model, typically used to solve classification challenges (or to provide regression type output). The goal was to leverage the strengths of the RF model to learn how to identify blowing dust, and hence, overcome the limitation of a user trying to detect blowing dust within the satellite imagery by eye alone. A brief description of the ML model development will be provided. However, the focus of the presentation will be on the initial user feedback from the assessment of this tool for the 2022 blowing dust events of March through April. During this time several users across the U.S. Southwest collaborated to apply this Dust ML product at night as a complement to the existing Dust RGB in order to determine if it provided greater operational efficiency and value.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRS1995

Application of impact dampers in vibration control of flexible structures

Impact dampers belong to the category of passive vibration devices used to attenuate the vibration of discrete and continuous systems. An impact damper generally consists of a mass which is allowed to travel freely between two defined stops. Under the right conditions, the vibration of the structure to which the impact damper is attached will cause the mass of the impact damper to strike the structure. Previous analytical and experimental research work on the effect of impact dampers in attenuating the vibration of discrete and continuous systems have demonstrated their effectiveness. It has been shown in this study that impact dampers can increase the intrinsic damping of a lightly-damped flexible structure. The test structure consists of a slender flexible beam supported by a pin-type support at one end and supported by a linear helical flexible spring at another location. Sinusoidal excitation spanning the first three natural frequencies was applied in the horizontal plane. The orientation of the excitation and the test structure in the horizontal plane minimizes the effect of gravity on the behavior of the test structure. The excitation was applied using a linear sine sweep technique. The span of the test structure, the mass of the impact damper, the distance of travel, and the location of the impact damper along the span of the test structure were varied. The damping ratio are estimated for sixty test configurations. The results show that the impact damper significantly increases the damping ratio of the test structure. Statistical analysis of the results using the method of multiple linear regression indicates that a reasonable fit has been accomplished. It is concluded that additional experimental analysis of flexible structures in microgravity environment is needed in order to achieve a better understanding of the behavior of impact damper under conditions of microgravity. Numerical solution of the behavior of flexible structures equipped with impact dampers is also needed to predict stresses and deformations under operating conditions of microgravity in space applications.

Akl, Fred A.↗