Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Operator regression”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Learning Symbolic Expressions: Mixed-Integer Formulations, Cuts, and Heuristics

Here, in this paper, we consider the problem of learning a regression function without assuming its functional form. This problem is referred to as symbolic regression. An expression tree is typically used to represent a solution function, which is determined by assigning operators and operands to the nodes. Cozad and Sahinidis propose a nonconvex mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP), in which binary variables are used to assign operators and nonlinear expressions are used to propagate data values through nonlinear operators, such as square, square root, and exponential. We extend this formulation by adding new cuts that improve the solution of this challenging MINLP. We also propose a heuristic that iteratively builds an expression tree by solving a restricted MINLP. We perform computational experiments and compare our approach with a mixed-integer program–based method and a neural network–based method from the literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correlating Time-Resolved Pressure Measurements With Rim Sealing Effectiveness for Real-Time Turbine Health Monitoring

Purge flow is bled from the upstream compressor and supplied to the under-platform region to prevent hot main gas path ingress that damages vulnerable under-platform hardware components. A majority of turbine rim seal research has sought to identify methods of improving sealing technologies and understanding the physical mechanisms that drive ingress. While these studies directly support the design and analysis of advanced rim seal geometries and purge flow systems, the studies are limited in their applicability to real-time monitoring required for condition-based operation and maintenance. As operational hours increase for in-service engines, this lack of rim seal performance feedback results in progressive degradation of sealing effectiveness, thereby leading to reduced hardware life. To address this need for rim seal performance monitoring, this study utilizes measurements from a one-stage turbine research facility operating with true-scale engine hardware at engine-relevant conditions. Time-resolved pressure measurements collected from the rim seal region are regressed with sealing effectiveness through the use of common machine learning techniques to provide real-time feedback of sealing effectiveness. Two modeling approaches are presented that use a single sensor to predict sealing effectiveness accurately over a range of two turbine operating conditions. Here, the results show that an initial purely data-driven model can be further improved using domain knowledge of relevant turbine operations, which yields sealing effectiveness predictions within 3% of measured values.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Correlating Time-Resolved Pressure Measurements With Rim Sealing Effectiveness for Real-Time Turbine Health Monitoring

Purge flow is bled from the upstream compressor and supplied to the under-platform region to prevent hot main gas path ingress that damages vulnerable under-platform hardware components. A majority of turbine rim seal research has sought to identify methods of improving sealing technologies and understanding the physical mechanisms that drive ingress. While these studies directly support the design and analysis of advanced rim seal geometries and purge flow systems, the studies are limited in their applicability to real-time monitoring required for condition-based operation and maintenance. As operational hours increase for in-service engines, this lack of rim seal performance feedback results in progressive degradation of sealing effectiveness, thereby leading to reduced hardware life. To address this need for rim seal performance monitoring, the present study utilizes measurements from a one-stage turbine research facility operating with true-scale engine hardware at engine-relevant conditions. Time-resolved pressure measurements collected from the rim seal region are regressed with sealing effectiveness through the use of common machine learning techniques to provide real-time feedback of sealing effectiveness. Two modelling approaches are presented that use a single sensor to predict sealing effectiveness accurately over a range of two turbine operating conditions. Results show that an initial purely data-driven model can be further improved using domain knowledge of relevant turbine operations, which yields sealing effectiveness predictions within three percent of measured values.

Compressors↗
DOE OSTI2021

A machine learning degradation model for electrochemical capacitors operated at high temperature

Electrochemical capacitors (ECs) have only recently been considered as an alternative power source for telemetry sensors of drilling equipment for geothermal or oil and gas exploration. The lifecycle analysis and modelling of ECs is underrepresented in literature in comparison to other storage devices e.g. Li-ion batteries. This paper investigates the degradation of ECs when cycled outside the manufacturer-specified operating temperature envelope and proposes a machine learning-based approach for modelling the degradation. Experimental results show that end of life, defined as a 30% decrease in capacitance, occurs at 1,000 cycles when the environmental temperature exceeds the maximum operating temperature by 30%. The life-cycle test data is then used as an input to a Gaussian process regression (GPR) algorithm to predict the capacitance fade trend. The GPR is validated on a total of nine commercial cells from two different manufacturers, achieving an average root mean squared percent error of less than 2% and a mean calibration score of 93% when referenced to a 95% confidence interval. The model can be utilized to determine the EC degradation rate at a range of operating temperature values.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meta‐Analysis and Regression Modeling of the Impacts of Four Indoor Environmental Quality Metrics on Office Performance

Awareness of how buildings interact with the occupant experience—especially human performance—is becoming more prevalent, as seen by increasing interest and investment in healthy built environments. However, there is a need to synthesize the wide array of existing indoor environmental assessment and performance research in a way that can translate directly to building design and operation. Existing research in this area typically focuses on a single isolated metric and has not focused on making the results utilizable by building practitioners. The aim of this research is to investigate existing office performance literature through meta‐analyses and produce regression models for four indoor environmental quality (IEQ) metrics to support critical decision‐making for building operation and renovation. To reach this aim, a literature review was conducted to identify studies that measure the impact of changing ventilation rate, temperature, horizontal illuminance, and noise level in offices on occupant task performance. This repository of field and laboratory studies was analyzed to visualize the trends between the selected IEQ metrics and task performance. The temperature, ventilation rate, and horizontal illuminance regression models showed clear improvement potential when modifying indoor conditions toward the defined high‐performance range, while the regression model for noise level was inconclusive. The discussion notes the importance of designing holistically for all components of these IEQ categories to utilize the results, for example, good filtration on outdoor air for quantifying ventilation impact and uniform overhead lighting with low contrast for quantifying horizontal illuminance impact. The novelty of this work is in considering multiple facets of the indoor environment under a single, unified analysis schema and producing IEQ‐based performance gains that can directly inform cost‐benefit analyses of building design and renovation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic projective splitting

Here, we present a new, stochastic variant of the projective splitting (PS) family of algorithms for inclusion problems involving the sum of any finite number of maximal monotone operators. This new variant uses a stochastic oracle to evaluate one of the operators, which is assumed to be Lipschitz continuous, and (deterministic) resolvents to process the remaining operators. Our proposal is the first version of PS with such stochastic capabilities. We envision the primary application being machine learning (ML) problems, with the method’s stochastic features facilitating “mini-batch” sampling of datasets. Since it uses a monotone operator formulation, the method can handle not only Lipschitz-smooth loss minimization, but also min–max and noncooperative game formulations, with better convergence properties than the gradient descent-ascent methods commonly applied in such settings. The proposed method can handle any number of constraints and nonsmooth regularizers via projection and proximal operators. We prove almost-sure convergence of the iterates to a solution and a convergence rate result for the expected residual, and close with numerical experiments on a distributionally robust sparse logistic regression problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2009

In-Situ Measurement of Hall Thruster Erosion Using a Fiber Optic Regression Probe

One potential life-limiting mechanism in a Hall thruster is the erosion of the ceramic material comprising the discharge channel. This is especially true for missions that require long thrusting periods and can be problematic for lifetime qualification, especially when attempting to qualify a thruster by analysis rather than a test lasting the full duration of the mission. In addition to lifetime, several analytical and numerical models include electrode erosion as a mechanism contributing to enhanced transport properties. However, there is still a great deal of dispute over the importance of erosion to transport in Hall thrusters. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of discharge channel erosion is useful in addressing both the lifetime and transport concerns. An in-situ measurement would allow for real-time data regarding the erosion rates at different operating points, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over a thruster s operating envelope would also be useful in the modeling of the detailed physics inside the discharge chamber. There are many different sensors and techniques that have been employed to quantify discharge channel erosion in Hall thrusters. Snapshots of the wear pattern can be obtained at regular shutdown intervals using laser profilometry. Many non-intrusive techniques of varying complexity and sensitivity have been employed to detect the time-varying presence of erosion products in the thruster plume. These include the use quartz crystal microbalances, emission spectroscopy, laser induced flourescence, and cavity ring-down spectroscopy. While these techniques can provide a very accurate picture of the level of eroded material in the thruster plume, it is more difficult to use them to determine the location from which the material was eroded. Furthermore, none of the methods cited provide a true in-situ measure of erosion at the channel surface while the thruster is in operation (i.e. none yield a continuous channel erosion measurement). A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor was tested using a linear Hall thruster geometry (see Fig. 1), which served as a means of producing plasma erosion of a ceramic discharge chamber. The mass flow rate, discharge voltage, and applied magnetic field strength could be varied, allowing for erosion measurements over a broad thruster operating envelope. Results are presented demonstrating the ability of the REAST sensor to capture not only the insulator erosion rates but also changes in these rates as a function of the discharge parameters.

Polzin, Kurt↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measuring environmental and cost benefits of riparian buffers for drinking water production in a Midwest watershed

Here, this study focuses on the economic value and carbon benefits of riparian buffers in urban drinking water production. The impact of riparian buffers on the waterworks operation in the Raccoon River watershed was quantified using the following metrics: nitrate concentration, days of nitrate removal operation, material and energy cost (based on 17 years of historical records with a watershed model), regression, and cost analysis. The findings indicate that the presence of riparian buffers in agricultural land can substantially decrease nitrate concentration in the water intake of the waterworks during the crop-growing season: 19% in April, 9% in May, and 11% in June. These reductions mean less nitrate treatment of the plant intake flow: 23% in April, 12% in May, and 3% in June. These changes lead to significant resource savings: 425 metric tons of sodium chloride (NaCl), 147 810 kWh of electricity, 253 metric tons of powdered activated carbon, and 20.8 million liters of fresh water. The buffers would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 86.9 metric tons (CO 2 equivalent) in 17 years. The total cost saving was estimated at $\$$327 326, with the highest potential savings in May ($\$$215 100), followed by April ($\$$65 465), and June ($\$$46 761). When factoring in buffer installation, cropland loss, nitrate removal, and cost associated with buffer harvest for biofuel in an established biomass market, the benefit to the entire watershed community would be $\$$2.63 million annually. The results underscore the significant cost benefits and environmental benefits associated with cropland riparian buffers in a watershed community. The approach employed in this study holds promise for assessing riparian buffer benefits in other watersheds, contributes to an understanding of sustainable water management practices, and provides a basis for decision making in a wide range of agricultural regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗
DOE OSTI2020

Environmental impacts of dam reservoir filling in the East Amazon

Mitigating the environmental impacts caused by hydroelectric dams is a worldwide challenge. The aquatic ecosystem is the most impacted during the reservoir filling phase, yet biogeochemical dynamics at this stage are not well-studied. Here we evaluate water quality and hydraulic parameters in the Araguari River (Amapá/Brazil) during the filling of the Ferreira Gomes Hydroelectric Power Plant reservoir (UHEFG). Five field campaigns were performed from July 2014 to August 2015 across nine sample sites within the reservoir (P1, P2, …P9) and only one downstream (P10). The following key variables were monitored: Trophic State Index (TSI), Total Coliforms (TC), E. coli (EC) and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), along with physical and chemical variables (Temperature, Suspended Solids, Total Dissolved Solids, Electrical Conductivity, Turbidity, Color, pH, DO, Al3+, NH4+, Cl-, Mg1+, Ca2+, total Phosphorous, NH3, NO3-, and SO42). Besides that, hydraulic-operational variables were also investigated: inflows (Qa), outflows (Qd), and variation in reservoir volume (Vol%). Multiple Regression Analyses showed that the key parameters were both significantly influenced by physio-chemical and hydraulic variables (0.46=R2adj=0.99, p<0.05). The DO showed significant spatial variation, being influenced by the turbulence from the Coaracy Nunes dam (UHECN) upstream and the UHEFG dam downstream. The Vol% influenced the TSI, which ranged from oligotrophic to hypertrophic and eventually stabilized at mesotrophic. The levels of TSI, TC, and Chl-a decreased and the level of E. coli increased (p<0.05) as a function of Vol%. A Cluster Analysis showed the formation of three spatial groups - two inside the reservoir and one downstream (P10). This suggests that in the rainy season or transition season, the hydraulic residence time in the reservoir is very low (16 = thr = 36 h) when hydrodynamic processes are dominant. In the dry season (thr ˜ 1 month), biogeochemical and hydrodynamic processes occur at similar time scales to the nutrient and microbial abundance. These results confirm the hypothesis that the filling phase has significant impacts on the key parameters of the water quality (p<0.05). We conclude that the filling phase of the UHEFG reservoir generated significant environmental impacts, which have repercussions even retrospectively.

Amazon, biogeochemistry, ecosystem, extreme event,↗
NASA NTRS2021

Dynamic Ensemble Prediction of Cognitive Performance in Space

Astronauts are exposed to a unique set of stressors in spaceflight. Microgravity, isolation, confinement, and environmental and operational hazards: all of these can impact sleep, vigilant attention, and alertness, which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we seek to understand the most important predictors of alertness over the course of a space mission, using self-reported, cognitive, and environmental data collected from 24 astronauts on 6-month missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Alertness was repeatedly and objectively assessed on the ISS with a brief 3-minute Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) that is highly sensitive to sleep deprivation. To relate PVT performance to time-varying and sparsely-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose a n ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects regression, random forest, and functional concurrent regression models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also discover that a participant’s past performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation exposure were among the most important variables associated with alertness. This method is broadly applicable to environmental studies where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series.

Danni Tu↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression Method for Probabilistic Wind Farm Power Curve Estimation

Accurate estimation of the power curve for wind turbines or wind farms is crucial to ensure their efficient operation and management. However, conventional methods for power curve estimation rely either on expensive and infrequent measurements or on low-quality numerical simulations. Moreover, the majority of previous studies on power curve estimation for wind turbines or wind farms focused on deterministic estimation, which provides a point estimate of the relationship between wind speed and power generation. Nevertheless, the deterministic approach fails to consider the inherent uncertainty associated with wind energy production resulting from varying turbine characteristics. This can lead to inaccurate power generation estimation and suboptimal decisions regarding energy management. In this paper, a kernel density estimation (KDE) based Multi-Fidelity Gaussian Process Regression (MFGPR) model is proposed to fuse theoretical power curve data and the ground true measurements to create a mapping of wind speed and wind power. By conducting a case study on an actual wind farm in China, the efficacy of the proposed MFGPR model was demonstrated in characterizing the variability of wind power. The probabilistic MFGPR model was also able to generate confidence intervals that encompassed the measured power, thereby improving the accuracy and confidence in wind power estimation or wind resource assessment. Overall, the proposed MFGPR model offers a reliable approach to integrate high-fidelity ground measurements and theoretical power curve data, resulting in precise wind resource assessment and power estimation.

Gaussian process regression↗
NASA NTRS1978

Urine monitoring system failure analysis and operational verification test report

Failure analysis and testing of a prototype urine monitoring system (UMS) are reported. System performance was characterized by a regression formula developed from volume measurement test data. When the volume measurement test data. When the volume measurement data was imputted to the formula, the standard error of the estimate calculated using the regression formula was found to be within 1.524% of the mean of the mass of the input. System repeatability was found to be somewhat dependent upon the residual volume of the system and the evaporation of fluid from the separator. The evaporation rate was determined to be approximately 1cc/minute. The residual volume in the UMS was determined by measuring the concentration of LiCl in the flush water. Observed results indicated residual levels in the range of 9-10ml, however, results obtained during the flushing efficiency test indicated a residual level of approximately 20ml. It is recommended that the phase separator pumpout time be extended or the design modified to minimize the residual level.

Glanfield, E. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Classification and regression models of audio and vibration signals for machine state monitoring in precision machining systems

Here we present a data-driven method for monitoring machine status in manufacturing processes. Audio and vibration data from precision machining are used for inference in two operating scenarios: (a) variable machine health states (anomaly detection); and (b) settings of machine operation (state estimation). Audio and vibration signals are first processed through Fast Fourier Transform and Principal Component Analysis to extract transformed and informative features. These features are then used in the training of classification and regression models for machine state monitoring. Specifically, three classifiers (K-nearest neighbors, convolutional neural networks and support vector machines) and two regressors (support vector regression and neural network regression) were explored, in terms of their accuracy in machine state prediction. It is shown that the audio and vibration signals are sufficiently rich in information about the machine that 100% state classification accuracy could be accomplished. Data fusion was also explored, showing overall superior accuracy of data-driven regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Closed-Loop Optimization of an Automated Mechanical Serial-Sectioning System via Run-to-Run Control as Applied to a Robo-Met.3D

Optimization of automated data collection is gaining increased interest for the purposes of enabling closed-loop self-correcting systems that inherently maximize operational efficiencies and reduce waste. Many data collection systems have several variables which influence data accuracy or consistency and which can require frequent user interaction to be monitored and maintained. Operating upon a Robo-MET.3D™ automated mechanical serial-sectioning system, a run-to-run control algorithm has been developed to accelerate data collection and reduce data inconsistency. Here, using historical data amassed over a decade of experiments, a linear regression model of the deterministic system dynamics is created and used to employ a run-to-run control algorithm that optimizes selected system inputs to reduce operator intervention and increase efficacy while reducing variance of system output.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different datasets, i.e., 1) the unit generation dataset and 2) the system total inertia and headroom dataset, for the prediction of the frequency nadir. The training and testing datasets are generated through extensive generation scheduling simulations using Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MI-DAS) toolbox on the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods perform well in predicting the nadir frequency of the system. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners yielding the best prediction accuracy in terms of four evaluation metrics.

data driven↗