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The aluminium-26 distribution in a cosmological simulation of a Milky Way-type Galaxy

Context . The 1.8 MeV γ -rays corresponding to the decay of the radioactive isotope 26 Al (with a half-life of 0.72 Myr ) have been observed by the SPI detector on the INTEGRAL spacecraft and extensively used as a tracer of star formation and current nucleosynthetic activity in the Milky Way Galaxy. Further information is encoded in the observation related to the higher 26 Al content found in regions of the Galaxy with the highest line-of-sight (LoS) velocity relative to an observer located in the Solar System. However, this feature remains unexplained. Aims . We ran a cosmological “zoom-in” chemodynamical simulation of a Milky Way-type galaxy, including the production and decays of radioactive nuclei in a fully self-consistent way. We then analyzed the results to follow the evolution of 26 Al throughout the lifetime of the simulated galaxy to provide a new method for interpreting the 26 Al observations. Methods . We included the massive star sources of 26 Al in the Galaxy and its radioactive decay into a state-of-the-art galactic chemical evolution model, coupled with cosmological growth and hydrodynamics. This approach allowed us to follow the spatial and temporal evolution of the 26 Al content in the simulated galaxy. Results . Our results are in agreement with the observations with respect to the fact that gas particles in the simulation with relatively higher 26 Al content also have the highest LoS velocities. On the other hand, gas particles with relatively lower 26 Al content (i.e., not bright enough to be observed) generally display the lowest LoS velocities. However, this result is not conclusive because the overall rotational velocity of our simulated galaxy is higher than that observed for cold CO gas in the Milky Way Galaxy. Furthermore, we found no significant correlation between gas temperature, rotational velocity, and 26 Al content at any given radius. We also found the presence of transient 26 Al-rich spots at low LoS velocities and we show that one such spot had been captured by the INTEGRAL/SPI data. Based on our model, we present a prediction for the detection of 1.8 MeV γ -rays by the future COSI mission. We find that according to our model, the new instrument will be able to observe similar 26 Al-emission patterns to those seen by INTEGRAL/SPI.

Wehmeyer, B. (ORCID:0009000254149292)↗

Medium-assisted enhancement of χ c 1 ( 3872 ) production from small to large colliding systems

Studies of exotic hadrons such as the χ c 1 ( 3872 ) state provide crucial insights into the fundamental force governing the strong interaction dynamics, with an emerging frontier to investigate their production in high energy collisions where a partonic medium is present. The latest experimental measurements from the Large Hadron Collider show an intriguing evolution pattern of the χ c 1 ( 3872 ) -to- ψ ( 2 S ) yield ratio from proton-proton collisions with increasing multiplicities toward proton-lead and lead-lead collisions. Here we propose a mechanism of medium-assisted enhancement for the χ c 1 ( 3872 ) production, which competes with the more conventional absorption-induced suppression and results in a nonmonotonic trend from small to large colliding systems. Realistic simulations from this model offer a quantitative description of all available data. Predictions are made for the centrality dependence of this observable in PbPb collisions as well as for its system-size dependence from OO and ArAr to XeXe and PbPb collisions. In both cases, a nonmonotonic behavior emerges as the imprint of the competition between enhancement and suppression and can be readily tested by future data. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

Connecting Current and Future Dual Active Galactic Nucleus Searches to LISA and Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detections

Abstract Dual active galactic nuclei (DAGN) mark the observable stage of massive black hole (MBH) pairing during galaxy mergers and are the progenitors of the MBH binaries that generate low-frequency gravitational waves. Using the large-volume ASTRID cosmological simulation, we construct mock DAGN catalogs tailored to the selection functions of current (COSMOS-Web and DESI) and forthcoming (Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) and Lynx X-ray Observatory (Lynx)) surveys, enabling direct comparisons between simulations and observations. With realistic observational selections, ASTRID reproduces the observed dual fractions, projected separations, and host-galaxy properties across redshifts. We predict a substantial population of small-separation (<5 kpc) duals that remain inaccessible to current surveys, demonstrating that the apparent paucity of subkiloparsec systems in COSMOS-Web is primarily a consequence of observational selection rather than an intrinsic absence. Following each simulated dual to coalescence, we show that DAGN are effective tracers of MBH mergers: ∼30%–70% merge within ≲1 Gyr, and 20%–60% of these mergers produce gravitational-wave signals detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Duals observable with Roman and Lynx are the progenitors of ∼10%–50% of low-redshift LISA sources and contribute ∼30% of the PTA-band stochastic gravitational-wave background. We further identify massive green-valley galaxies hosting moderate-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGN), together with massive star-forming galaxies containing bright quasars at z > 1, as the environments most likely to host imminent MBH binaries. These results establish a unified cosmological framework connecting DAGN demographics, MBH binary evolution, and gravitational-wave sources, while identifying high-priority targets for coordinated electromagnetic and multimessenger observations in the coming decade.

Chen, Nianyi [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik;↗

MBARI-WEC September and October 2022 Field Data

This data is needed to simulate a model of the MBARI-WEC (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Wave Energy Converter device) in a simulation environment (e.g. Gazebo) for 56 observation dates in the time between September and October 2022, and to compare the simulation outputs to the corresponding field data of the physical MBARI-WEC. There were 50 observations chosen in Sept and 6 observations in Oct. To help understand terms below, a summary of the system can be found at the github link in the downloads section below. The Gazebo MBARI-WEC model is also provided, should users wish to simulate using this platform. There are 4 *mat files included. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Spectrum and Simulation Inputs: September2022_spectrum_siminputs.mat and October2022_spectrum_siminputs.mat has data needed for simulation inputs in table format. These include the ocean spectrum for an observation and operating parameters of the MBARI-WEC during that observation. They are organized as rows representing an observation and columns representing data. For example, for the September *mat there are 50 rows. The first 7 columns are Datetime, sig_waveheight, peak_period, mean_period, heaveconedoor_status, pistonpos_mean, and scale_factor: - Datetime is the date and time the observation occurred in PST - sig_waveheight is the significant wave height of the ocean spectrum during that observation in meters - peak_period is the peak period of the ocean spectrum during that observation in seconds - mean_period is the mean period of the ocean spectrum during that observation in seconds - heaveconedoor_status is the status of the heave cone doors where 0 represents the doors are open and 1 represents they are closed - pistonpos_mean is the mean position of the PTO ram (piston) in meters - scale_factor is an additional factor of 0.5 --1.4 applied to a default damping relationship The next columns are data needed to represent the ocean spectrum. First are the frequencies [Hz] labeled as "f0-f38", then the variance density [m2/Hz] labeled as "vardens0-vardens38". October2022_spectrum_siminputs.mat follows as a similar format as above, but includes a larger amount of ocean spectrum frequencies and variance density elements. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Field data: The field data is found in MBARIWEC_septdata.mat and MBARIWEC_octdata.mat for the observations of September and October, respectively. These contain data in a struct format. The struct contains the following fields for each observation: PC_BattCurr, PC_LoadCurr, PC_RPM, PC_Voltage, SC_Range, SC_Velocity, DateTime, where: - PC_BattCurr is the current flowing to or from the onboard batteries in Amps - PC_LoadCurr is the current flowing to the load dump in Amps - PC_RPM is the electric/hydraulic motor shaft speed (directly coupled) in RPM - PC_Voltage is the bus voltage at the power converter in Volts - SC_Range is the PTO ram (piston) position in meters where 0 is fully retracted and 2.03 is fully extended - SC_Velocity is the PTO ram (piston) velocity in meters/sec - DateTime is the date and time of the sampled field data in each observation in PST - Electric Power is equal to: PC_Voltage*(PC_BattCurr + PC_LoadCurr) in Watts For example, upon loading MBARIWEC_octdata.mat, the aforementioned fields would be loaded, each with {6x1} cells for the 6 observations chosen in October. Within the first cell of e.g. SC_Range would be sampled data representing the field data of the MBARIWEC PTO piston position for say, one hour, of the first October observation. The corresponding field DateTime would...

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Constraining Inputs to Realistic Kilonova Simulations through Comparison to Observed r -process Abundances

Kilonovae, one source of electromagnetic emission associated with neutron star mergers, are powered by the decay of radioactive isotopes in the neutron-rich merger ejecta. Models for kilonova emission consistent with the electromagnetic counterpart to GW170817 predict characteristic abundance patterns, determined by the relative balance of different types of material in the outflow. Assuming that the observed source is prototypical, this inferred abundance pattern in turn must match r -process abundances deduced by other means, such as what is observed in the solar system. We report on analysis comparing the input mass-weighted elemental compositions adopted in our radiative transfer simulations to the mass fractions of elements in the Sun, as a practical prototype for the potentially universal abundance signature from neutron star mergers. We characterize the extent to which our parameter inference results depend on our assumed composition for the dynamical and wind ejecta and examine how the new results compare to previous work. We find that a dynamical ejecta composition calculated using the FRDM2012 nuclear mass and FRLDM fission models with extremely neutron-rich ejecta ($Y_e$ = 0.035) along with moderately neutron-rich ($Y_e$ = 0.27) wind ejecta composition yields a wind-to-dynamical mass ratio of $M_w$/$M_d$ = 0.47, which best matches the observed AT2017gfo kilonova light curves while also producing the bestmatching abundance of neutron capture elements in the solar system, though, allowing for systematics, the ratio may be as high as of order unity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantum simulation of hyperbolic space with circuit quantum electrodynamics: From graphs to geometry

We show how quantum many-body systems on hyperbolic lattices with nearest-neighbor hopping and local interactions can be mapped onto quantum field theories in continuous negatively curved space. Here, the underlying lattices have recently been realized experimentally with superconducting resonators and therefore allow for a table-top quantum simulation of quantum physics in curved background. Our mapping provides a computational tool to determine observables of the discrete system even for large lattices, where exact diagonalization fails. As an application and proof of principle we quantitatively reproduce the ground state energy, spectral gap, and correlation functions of the noninteracting lattice system by means of analytic formulas on the Poincaré disk, and show how conformal symmetry emerges for large lattices. This sets the stage for studying interactions and disorder on hyperbolic graphs in the future. Importantly, our analysis reveals that even relatively small discrete hyperbolic lattices emulate the continuous geometry of negatively curved space, and thus can be used to experimentally resolve fundamental open problems at the interface of interacting many-body systems, quantum field theory in curved space, and quantum gravity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Description of the Three-Dimensional Large-Scale Forcing Data from the 3D Constrained Variational Analysis (VARANAL3D)

This technical report introduces a Three-Dimensional Constrained Variational Analysis (3DCVA) (Tang and Zhang 2015) and its product of three-dimensional large-scale forcing data to drive single-column models (SCM), cloud-resolving models (CRM), and large-eddy simulation (LES) models, and to evaluate model results. The 3DCVA algorithm is an extension of the original 1D constrained variational analysis (1DCVA) (Zhang and Lin 1997, Zhang et al. 2001). The three-dimensional structure of the forcing data allows studies of spatial variation of the large-scale forcing fields and tests of physical parameterizations across scales. In the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, the 3D forcing data are assigned the datastream name varanal3d. In this technical report, 3DCVA will be used to refer to the algorithm, while VARANAL3D will be used to refer to the data product.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters

This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters (ROAD-EnKFs) learn a latent low-dimensional surrogate model for the dynamics and a decoder that maps from the latent space to the state space. The learned dynamics and decoder are then used within an EnKF to reconstruct and forecast the state. Numerical experiments show that if the state dynamics exhibit a hidden low-dimensional structure, ROAD-EnKFs achieve higher accuracy at lower computational cost compared to existing methods. If such structure is not expressed in the latent state dynamics, ROAD-EnKFs achieve similar accuracy at lower cost, making them a promising approach for surrogate state reconstruction and forecasting.

Mathematics↗

Origin of mean-field behavior in an elastic Ising model

Simple elastic models of spin-crossover compounds are known empirically to exhibit classical critical behavior. Here, we demonstrate how the long-range interactions responsible for this behavior arise naturally upon integrating out mechanical fluctuations of such a model. A mean-field theory applied to the resulting effective Hamiltonian quantitatively accounts for both thermodynamics and kinetics observed in computer simulations, including a barrier to magnetization reversal that grows extensively with system size. For nanocrystals, which break translational symmetry, a straightforward extension of mean-field theory yields similarly accurate results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing Tropical Pacific-induced Predictability of Southern California Precipitation Using a Novel Multi-input Multi-output Autoencoder

We construct a novel Multi-Input Multi-Output Autoencoder-decoder (MIMO-AE) to capture the non-linear relationship of Southern California precipitation and tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature. The MIMO-AE is trained on both monthly TP-SST and SC-PRECIP anomalies simultaneously. The co-variability of the two fields in the MIMO-AE shared nonlinear latent space can be condensed into an index, termed the MIMO-AE index. We use a transfer learning approach to train a MIMO-AE on the combined dataset of 100 years of output from a historical simulation with the Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model version 1 and a segment of observational data. We further use Long Short-Term Memory networks to assess sub-seasonal predictability of SC-PRECIP using the MIMO-AE index. We find that the MIMO-AE index provides enhanced predictability of SC-PRECIP for a lead-time of up-to four months as compared to Niño 3.4 index and the El Niño Southern Oscillation Longitudinal Index.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Hunga Volcanic Eruption Atmospheric Impacts Report

On 15 January 2022 a highly explosive eruption of the Hunga volcano occurred in the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean (175°24’ W, 20°33’ S). The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 eruption originated from a shallow submarine vent, making it distinct from large subaerial eruptions of recent decades (e.g., 1982 El Chichón, 1991 Mt. Pinatubo). In particular, seawater enhanced explosivity and dampened sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions. The eruption was the culmination of ~1 month of precursory activity; however, the timing and size of the eruption were unexpected, partly due to the challenges of monitoring submarine volcanoes. The stratospheric hydration caused by the eruption was unprecedented in magnitude, altitude, and duration in the satellite record. This Executive Summary reflects the current assessment of the Hunga eruption and its impact on the climate system. We report key observations of the eruption and its aftermath, as well as simulations of its impact by global chemistry-climate models. The Hunga eruption had an unprecedented impact on the stratosphere and mesosphere due to the plume height and large water content, which increased the global stratospheric water vapour burden by 10%. Most of this water has remained in the atmosphere into 2025. However, Hunga’s net impact on surface climate was small compared to that of earlier large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, due to limited sulfate aerosol loading in the stratosphere and the high altitude of the water vapour injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Searching for multimessenger transients and lensed supernovae with the dark energy survey

Advances in data collection technology for optical astronomy, such as the Dark Energy Camera, have facilitated the collection of some of the largest astronomical datasets in terms of sky area, depth, number of objects, number of observations, and frequency of observations. Consequentially, physical systems that have been historically rare become represented in small, but discoverable, numbers. I have developed techniques to identify rare physical systems (counterparts to high-energy neutrinos, counterparts to gravitational waves, and gravitationally lensed supernovae) that can shed new light on the physical processes that govern the Universe. For each system of interest, I collect new or search archival observations with the Dark Energy Camera, develop selection methodologies to find the system of interest in the observations, and quantify the efficiency of the search using simulations. Each of the three analyses has its own scientific implications: I constrain the observing program required to determine the contribution of supernovae to the diffuse high-energy neutrino flux; I set constraints on the physical properties of an optical counterpart to a compact object merger; and I identify candidate lensed supernovae using a novel machine learning technique. Looking forward, the work presented in this dissertation informs future rare object searches and facilitates measurements of the underlying properties of the Universe during the next era of optical survey astronomy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Assessing Raindrop Breakup Parameterizations Using Disdrometer Observations

In this work, an intercomparison of raindrop mean diameter frequency distribution (RDFD) is performed for numerical simulations of precipitating cloud systems using an array of models and microphysics schemes. This includes results from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) double-moment microphysics, the Hebrew University Cloud Model bin microphysics (HUCM) interfaced to the RAMS parent model, and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the Thompson, Morrison, double-moment 6-class (WDM6), and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) double-moment schemes. Simulations are examined with respect to the raindrop size distribution (DSD) volume-number mean diameter (D m ) and intercept parameter (N w ). When compared to a suite of disdrometer observations, the RDFD resulting from each microphysics scheme exhibits varying degrees of mean drop size constraints and peaks in the frequency distribution of D m . A more detailed investigation of the peaked RDFD from the RAMS simulations suggests that the parameterization of raindrop collisional breakup can impose strong limitations on the evolution of simulated drop growth. As such, a summary and comparison of the drop breakup parameterizations among the aforementioned microphysics schemes is presented. While some drop breakup parameterizations are adjusted toward the observations by modifying the threshold diameter for the onset of breakup, this study explores the use of a modified maximum breakup efficiency. This method permits the parameterization to retain its threshold breakup diameter, while limiting the strength of drop breakup and permitting a broader range of drop sizes. As a result, the simulated mean drop sizes are in better agreement with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using statistical modeling to predict and understand fusion experiments

Over 300 cryogenic layered direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions have been successfully executed on the OMEGA Laser System in the last decade. However, extracting sufficient understanding from these experiments to develop new designs or to identify or mitigate degradation sources remains challenging. Recently, a statistical modeling approach was developed to successfully design and predict improved implosion experiments on OMEGA. Here, we show that one-dimensional simulations can be used to predict the outcomes of systematically perturbed three-dimensional simulations and that this statistical modeling approach can be used to identify or rule out physical mechanisms for some of the degradation sources observed on the OMEGA Laser System for direct-drive cryogenic inertial confinement fusion. In this instance, we investigate the fusion yield dependencies on the ion temperature asymmetries and laser beam size observed in experiments by comparing with trends in three-dimensional synthetic simulation databases. Using the statistical model on these systematically perturbed simulations, we find that the statistically inferred dependency on the measured ion temperature asymmetries is well explained by imposed ℓ =1 modes. However, we find that the dependency on the laser beam size is only dominated by the illumination non-uniformity for some extreme cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

East African Monsoon as a Drawbridge for the Circumnavigation of Madden–Julian Oscillation Events

The seasonality of circumnavigation of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events is examined using 42 years of observations and global model simulations. MJO events are most likely to propagate across the Atlantic Ocean, Africa and back to equatorial Indian Ocean relatively unweakened during March-April-May and to a lesser extent in October-November-December. These seasons correspond to the "long-rain" and "short-rain" periods of East African monsoon when precipitation over Africa is near the equator and extend farthest east toward Indian Ocean. Moisture budget analysis of a circumnavigating MJO event under real and hypothetical seasonally varying background conditions indicates that the seasonal zonal movement of zonal component of background circulation regulates the moistening of MJO crossing from Eastern Africa to Indian Ocean. Ensembles of Energy Exa-scale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations of the MJO event under idealized seasonally varying background state confirm the observed drawbridge-like role of East African monsoon in the propagation of MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molecular Simulation of Lithium Carbonate Reactive Vapor–Liquid Equilibria Using a Deep Potential Model

We developed a first-principles machine learning model for the reactive vapor–liquid phase behavior of molten Li 2 CO 3 . The model was trained on ab initio electronic density functional theory data using the Deep Potential (DP) methodology, and its accuracy was evaluated by comparing model predictions of density and viscosity to experimental measurements. Direct coexistence simulations with the DP model over time scales of tens of nanoseconds were used to observe equilibrium dissociation of Li 2 CO 3 into CO 2 residing primarily in the vapor phase and Li 2 O which remains dissolved in the liquid. The simulations covered a range of temperatures, overall system sizes, and vapor-to-liquid volume ratios. Results were analyzed in terms of the observed chemical composition of the liquid and vapor phases, product structure, and CO 2 partial pressures. In addition, we calculated equilibrium constants for the dissociation reaction by assuming ideal-solution behavior for the liquid. As expected on the basis of thermodynamic arguments and prior experiments for this system, the observed partial pressure of CO 2 in the gas phase depends on both the temperature and the ratio of vapor to liquid volumes, while the calculated equilibrium constants only depend on temperature. DP model predictions for the equilibrium constant of the reaction are generally consistent with the available experimental measurements. Furthermore, the present study establishes the validity of the DP methodology for the description of reactive, multiphase equilibria from first principles, with possible applications to many other systems of scientific and technological interest even in the absence of relevant experimental measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ab Initio Polariton Transport Dynamics with the Classical Path Approximation

We present an ab initio framework for simulating polariton transport dynamics based on the classical path approximation (CPA). The quantum dynamics of polariton transport involves simulating many electronic degrees of freedom, making a fully ab initio dynamics simulation computationally expensive. We demonstrate that the CPA, which removes the need for excited-state nuclear gradients, is well-suited for polaritonic systems because collective light–matter coupling leads to vanishing excited-state forces. Benchmark comparisons between CPA and full evaluation of the excited-state forces show excellent agreement for polariton transport results in model light–matter systems such as polariton group velocities and mean-squared displacements. Ab initio simulations of polariton transport using CPA reproduce key physical trends that are observed in experiments with BODIPY molecules. Our work establishes the CPA as a highly efficient tool for ab initio investigations of transport and energy flow in hybrid light–matter systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

SIDM Concerto: Compilation and Data Release of Self-interacting Dark Matter Zoom-in Simulations

We present SIDM Concerto: 14 cosmological zoom-in simulations in cold dark matter (CDM) and self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) models based on the Symphony and Milky Way-est suites. SIDM Concerto includes one Large Magellanic Cloud– (LMC-) mass system (host mass ∼10 11 M ⊙ ), two Milky Way (MW) analogs (∼10 12 M ⊙ ), two group-mass hosts (∼10 13 M ⊙ ), and one low-mass cluster (∼10 14 M ⊙ ). Each host contains ≈2 × 10 7 particles and is run in CDM and one or more strong, velocity-dependent SIDM models. Our analysis of SIDM (sub)halo populations over seven subhalo mass decades reveals that (1) the fraction of core-collapsed isolated halos and subhalos peaks at a maximum circular velocity corresponding to the transition of the SIDM cross section from a v −4 to v 0 scaling; (2) SIDM subhalo mass functions are suppressed by ≈50% relative to CDM in LMC, MW, and group-mass hosts but are consistent with CDM in the low-mass cluster host; (3) subhalos’ inner density profile slopes, which are more diverse in SIDM than in CDM, are sensitive to both the amplitude and shape of the SIDM cross section. Our simulations provide a benchmark for testing SIDM predictions with astrophysical observations of field and satellite galaxies, strong lensing systems, and stellar streams. Data products are publicly available at doi:10.5281/zenodo.14933624.

dark matter↗