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This presentation on assessing the impact of sensitivity/uncertainty selection criteria on computational bias prediction starts with providing a motivation and scope. This presentation then gives the selection criteria description with the method and application. This presentation finishes with results, conclusions, and future work.
Recent technical advances have brought forth revolutionary Smart Packaging (SP) technology. SP incorporates multiple electronics, chemical, and mechanical sensing technologies into packaging materials, and utilizes them to monitor and display package content status. SP can also employ embedded micro actuators to react to undesirable package conditions such as moisture/temperature anomalies or harmful chemical reactions and neutralize it. When further integrated with wireless sensing and secure networking, SP provides wholistic system-wide remote situation awareness capability for real-time crisis management. Finally, we also see that SP can be further integrated with 3D printing technology to offer form-factor customization and application specific solutions suitable for DOE (Department of Energy) NNSA’s (National Nuclear Security Administration) R/N (radiological/nuclear) material shipment and management needs; this has the potential to improve safety, security, and overall operation process quality. This report surveys SP technology as the state of the art (SOTA) and analyzes how it can integrate with cybersecurity and 3D printing to address NNSA’s critical R/N material shipment and storage requirements. This report further presents our FY23/24 investigation plan describing project background, goal, motivation, proposed work, and statement of work and cost.
Evaluations of nuclear data are based on statistical analysis of available experimental data and their uncertainties plus model calculations and their uncertainties. As the models are currently rather limited, the evaluations are heavily biassed toward experimental data, with the caveat that a thorough analysis is also required to understand possible discrepancies between data sets. Hence, as new experimental data become available, they are incorporated into the evaluation procedure. Recent measurements of the 233 U capture to fission cross section ratio at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center have prompted a re-evaluation of the capture cross section in the resonance and fast regions up to 250 keV. We will discuss the challenges of including the new fast neutron experimental data in an evaluation that is consistent with the resonance region. We will also discuss our consistent evaluation procedure based on the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model for nuclear reactions and its application to the evaluations of 239 Pu and 139 La neutron-induced reactions.
Accurate nuclear data is the foundation for predictive simulations and design of new experimental in the nuclear community. The criticality safety community has particular interest in benchmarking assemblies with thermal neutron data. To address such needs the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) funded the Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) campaigns that were to be completed between Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Specifically, analysis of plutonium with a thermal neutron spectrum expands on previous work to help validate thermal scattering law data, which can have larger impacts in thermal applications. The first of these experiments were successfully conducted in 2018, but this paper will focus on the 2021 measurement focused on investigating the the thermal scattering law (TSL) for polyethylene. These experiments were successfully conducted at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) using the Planet vertical lift critical assembly machine. Polethylene plates were layered with trays of Zero Power Physics Reactor (ZPPR) 24 plates in a 12" by 12" square. The ZPPR plates were 2" by 3" by 0.125" bearing weapons grade plutonium. The polyethylene moderator was either 2" or 1.6875" thick. This work builds on the Rossi-alpha calculations done by McKenzie et al. for the same detector-assembly system and will only focus on the Rossi-alpha neutron noise method. This work will aim to further validate the results of the experiment through a novel neutron noise python package. Following similar methodology to the previous analysis, analysis of TEX evaluated the prompt neutron decay constant at delayed critical, $α_{DC}$ using Rossi-alpha for different polyethylene moderator thicknesses. These results will help improve understanding of TSL in critical experiments. Alpha (α), is the prompt neutron decay constant of the measured system and allows for the evaluation of a systems propensity to sustain fission chains via prompt neutrons. The single value description of the assemblies allow for comparison between experiments regardless of composition, geometry, and reflectors/moderators. Rossi-alpha measurements were performed on the polyethylene moderated TEX experiments to estimate $α_{DC}$.
This is the final progress report submitted by X-energy, LLC (XE) to the Department of Energy in support of cooperative agreement DE-NE0008745. This report provides a high-level summary of the work performed during the entire period of performance, running from August 24, 2018 – August 22, 2022. This span of time covers the original 3-year award and a one year no-cost extension. There were five tasks within this project: (1) project management, (2) systems engineering and studies, (3) TRISO-X Facility design, (4) facility license application development, and (5) support to application review. Detailed reporting during execution of the project was provided by a total of 16 quarterly reports, voluntary monthly update presentations, and annual summary presentations. Technical work products include 103 X-energy technical reports, 38 subcontractor (Centrus technical reports), 75 Nuclear Criticality Safety Evaluations/Calculation reports, and 272 miscellaneous design documents (e.g., Engineering Service Orders, Engineering Component Specifications, Procedures, Guidelines/Policies, Design and Interface Requirements documents, and Drawings). All 29 of the X Energy milestones/deliverables were met early or on time and are archived in the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Program Information Control System: Nuclear Energy under Fiscal Year 2018, Work Breakdown Structure F.OA – Industry FOA FY 2018 Awards, F.03 – X-Energy TRISO-X Project. All other work products are available to DOE upon request.
The Department of Energy invests tens of millions of dollars each year to develop the next generation of nuclear engineering modeling & simulation (M&S) tools. These tools are used to analyze advanced reactor designs and the safety of current nuclear operations. As computers become more powerful, we are able to enhance resolution in our calculations. This improved resolution is taking us to a point where the limitations of simulation capability are in the quality of data, including our ability to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the data. In order to model systems of interest with increasing accuracy, the industry must improve key nuclear data measurements. Thus, M&S tools need evaluated and quality-assured experimental data for validation purposes. The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) compiles and evaluates experiment data in a handbook that can be used by criticality safety engineers and others to validate computer codes and cross-section libraries at nuclear facilities. Both critical and subcritical experiments are included in the handbook. Figure 1 organizes all the benchmark evaluations that have been performed by the isotope of interest, in this case Pb, and the average neutron energy the system. Compared to other isotopes of interest for nuclear applications, there are few benchmark evaluations for Pb systems. The lack of integral measurements to determine errors in Pb cross-section data has caused the latest nuclear cross-section libraries to over/underestimate k eff compared to experimental results. Therefore, this evaluation fills an important knowledge gap in benchmark evaluations.
Any analysis, design of a nuclear system will be as good as the knowledge of the nuclear data used whether differential and integral. ORNL is engaged in generating high level nuclear data for reactor, shielding, and safety applications. Nuclear data remains a major source of data uncertainties. Uncertainties on nuclear data rely upon measurements and evaluations. Tight connections with experimental facilities around the world have helped ORNL to address issues on ND and uncertainty. It is extremely important for ORNL to retain expertise on nuclear data in support of the research and expertise activities.
The presentation discusses benchmarking in comparison to experimental truth, the integral experiments that were performed, and that benchmarks are evaluated experiments. It also discusses validation testing, and that the ultimate goal of the validation end product is to improve evaluated nuclear data for applications It does state that validation highlights errors in the Nuclear Data Pipeline that affect applications, for example: Missing Cd Capture Gammas in ENDF/B-VII.1. It acknowledges that additional types of experiments are needed to test data used in applications, and that validation experiments do not have to be complicated and expensive. The presentation also discusses different types of measurements including activation foil and fission chamber measurements, reactor kinetics measurements, and subcritical measurements. The presentation concludes with an experiment summary and states that all applications need validation.
Small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, along with other advanced reactor (AR) technologies, are key to the future of nuclear energy. For these systems to achieve low operating costs, high reliability, and flexibility across applications, their operation and maintenance must be optimized. Digital twin (DT) technology is one of the technologies that enables real-time (or faster than real-time) monitoring and prognosis of critical components which are vital for operational efficiency, low costs, and enhanced safety of ARs, accelerating their deployment. DT technology provides dynamic virtual representation of physical assets by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and advanced analytics, which is critical to optimizing the performance of the entire energy system throughout the life cycle. DTs empower engineers and operators to virtually explore different scenarios, configurations, and control strategies, allowing for the identification of optimal solutions that maximize reactor efficiency, safety, and economics.
This paper provides a high-level comparison between the international and domestic nuclear criticality safety (NCS) standards, as requested by members of the Nuclear Criticality Safety Division. Currently, there are 18 enacted American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American National Standards (ANS) standards, and 1 ANSI/ANS standard, in progress. There are 11 NCS standards from the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), Technical Committee 85 (TC85) on Nuclear Energy, Subcommittee 5 (SC5) on Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Working Group 8 (WG8). NCS standard revisions are in progress for both standards organizations. The key differences between the ISO TC85/SC5/WG8 and ANSI/ANS-8 consensus NCS standards are summarized. The hard work done by the ANS-8 and WG8 volunteers allows for applicable, high-quality consensus standards for use by the NCS community. This paper defines the current status of each ANSI/ANS and ISO standard, the work in in progress, the revisions/amendments in progress, and WG8/ANS-8 non-standard business in progress. A forthcoming paper will compare the development process for ISO and ANSI/ANS standards.
Computer hardware and associated software have been used for many years to process accounting information, to analyze test data and to perform engineering analysis. Now computers and software also control everything from automobiles to washing machines and the number and type of applications are growing at an exponential rate. The size of individual program has shown similar growth. Furthermore, software and hardware are used to monitor and/or control potentially dangerous products and safety-critical systems. These uses include everything from airplanes and braking systems to medical devices and nuclear plants. The question is: how can this hardware and software be made more reliable? Also, how can software quality be improved? What methodology needs to be provided on large and small software products to improve the design and how can software be verified?
Nuclear criticality safety is an extremely important part of the work at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). As part of the work LANL performs to continue to keep criticality safety a top priority, LANL has developed and regularly teaches nuclear criticality safety training classes for both the United States Department of Energy Nuclear Criticality Safety Program as well as internal trainings for LANL employees. A portion of the training classes is comprised of hands-on demonstrations, where students get the opportunity to handle special nuclear material at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). One hands-on demonstration uses the “Class foils,” thin HEU foils which are stacked with lucite moderator plates. A hand-stack is performed until the multiplication reaches the “three-quarters rule,” where the demonstration is continued remotely on a vertical lift assembly up until the system is critical. This hands-on demonstration eventually achieves a critical configuration and follows the ANS-1 guidelines on an approach to critical. Another hands-on demonstration involves handling clad plutonium and neptunium spheres, and follows procedures using criticality safety evaluations to ensure that the hands-on demonstrations remain subcritical.This hands-on demonstration also involves the use of polyethylene shells around the plutonium sphere to demonstrate how additional reflector increases the criticality of a system. This paper is focused on developing a new hands-on demonstration using Zero Power Physics Reactor (ZPPR) plates. This new hands-on demonstration will follow the ANS-8 standards as it is not desired to achieve criticality with the ZPPR plates during the hands-on demonstration. A hands-on demonstration using multiple plutonium parts will likely be more applicable to personnel who handle plutonium on a daily basis, such as LANL glovebox operators.
Inspection and certification comprise the most significant bottlenecks in advanced manufacturing for NNSA applications, often requiring far more time and resources than the fabrication of the parts themselves. Traditional methods, such as manual review and X-ray computed tomography, are not only slow and costly, but also struggle to provide a clear connection between manufacturing instructions and the final performance of critical components. This gap limits both the agility and assurance needed to support the modernization and safety of the United States nuclear stockpile. In response, our Strategic Initiative established a digital twin framework that integrates realtime process monitoring, automated data analysis, and immersive virtual reality collaboration into a unified inspection pipeline. By leveraging data from sensors, machine instructions, and imaging, we created high-fidelity virtual models of manufactured parts that could be rapidly analyzed and certified. This approach was first demonstrated with Direct Ink Write, and then extended to other manufacturing settings, including conventional (or “subtractive”) manufacturing and to predict the end of life performance of parts per the aging and lifetimes programs. The result is a transformational capability: inspection times have been reduced by a factor of 120,000 without loss of accuracy and while simultaneously improving traceability and confidence in part quality. This framework not only streamlines certification for critical applications, but also positions the national security enterprise to respond more flexibly to emerging challenges, supporting agile manufacturing and digital engineering practices across a broad range of mission-relevant domains.
Validation in criticality safety is performed by comparing the results of critical experiments with the calculated results from models of the experiments using the computational method to be validated. Laboratory critical experiments are controlled systems that achieve a k eff of approximately 1 and enable investigation of the parameters at which such a critical condition is achieved. For the critical experiments used in a validation to capture the biases of the materials and neutron energy spectra of interest, those materials must be included in the experiment such that they influence k eff or another observable parameter with statistical significance. This paper discusses the use of sensitivity uncertainty (S/U) methods to develop critical experiments for various purposes. S/U techniques are useful for understanding the underlying components of nuclear data which affect the k eff or another parameter of a given configuration. S/U calculations are most commonly used to compare existing experiments to applications of interest; however, S/U techniques can also be used to identify, optimize, or assess features of proposed experiments so that they can better test specific portions of nuclear data or match an application of interest. The S/U techniques discussed here are from the TSUNAMI code system. The two primary codes discussed in this work are TSUNAMI-3D, which implements the KENO criticality code to calculate the sensitivity of k eff to nuclear data, and TSAR, which calculates the sensitivity of a reactivity difference between two configurations based on their TSUNAMI-3D generated sensitivity profiles. The methods used in these tools are discussed in more detail in the SCALE manual. This paper is one of a series on the development and use of TSUNAMI tools. The other papers address development of TSUNAMI methods and a review of TSUNAMI applications.
The nuclear criticality safety (NCS) consensus standards are developed as using rigorous procedures of the Standards Board of the American Nuclear Society. These procedures have been accredited by the American National Standards Institute, Inc., as meeting the criteria for American National Standards. The Nuclear Criticality Safety Consensus Committee (NCSCC) that approved all 18 NCS consensus standards is balanced to ensure that competent, concerned, and varied interests have had an opportunity to participate. The ANS-8 subcommittee (ANS-8) consists of 17 NCS experts with many years of experience as end users of ANS standards who serve on standard working groups to develop and maintain standards. ANS-8 ensures that the technical content of the standards is adequate for NCS community use. Attempts are made to ensure that ANS-8 consists of NCS professionals with a diverse range of experience such that all standards are applicable to as many sites as possible. ANS-8 is a very active subcommittee, and some active projects in progress are discussed in this paper: basis statement development for all standards, development of a glossary for consistency of definitions across all ANS-8 standards, and Considering the Criticality Safety Support Group (CSSG) Recommendation 2016-04 to the ANS Standards Board for changes in several ANS-8 standards.
The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test (SPERT) III E-core experiment is important because it provides critical data on reactor behavior under significant reactivity insertions, which is essential for validating computer simulations and ensuring the safety of modern light water reactors. Its design similarities to contemporary reactors make it a valuable resource for understanding and mitigating extreme hazards in nuclear operations. The current study details the application of formal parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to a model of the SPERT-III E-core model for zero power reactivity benchmarking. Additionally, the reactivity impact from various modeling assumptions is quantified. Overall, an conservative estimate for an uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$ of $\pm$1257 was observed. A less conservative, more realistic, uncertainty estimate of $\pm$1096 pcm can be justified by the potential for various parametric uncertainties to become negligible when sampled independently across the ~1400 pins in the core. The experimental results fall within both of these uncertainty bounds. Standardized regression coefficient as well as Sobol indices are used to identify the guide tube thicknesses as the primary contributors to the uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$. Overall, this study provides information on how the uncertainties in input parameters and modeling methods impact simulated k$_{\text{eff}}$ values and can be used to aid model building efforts for future code validation with the SPERT-III E-core experiment.
This review paper provides an abbreviated historical review of the development of the TSUNAMI capabilities in SCALE, beginning with the first initiatives, to provide new insights into validation, uncertainty quantification, and safety assessment. The tools of TSUNAMI have evolved substantially over two decades to meet the growing application analysis and experiment design needs. Even more advancements are emerging as the next generation of innovators continue to use and develop these tools.
This discussion assesses the impact of sensitivity/uncertainty-based selection criteria on computational bias prediction. This presentation details the development of a tool to calculate the predicted computational bias for a given application as a function the c k threshold.