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This Resilience Project Implementation Process Memo was developed with and for the Town of Stowe Electric Department (SED) under the DOE C2C Expert Match Program. It is intended to outline the steps of a process, albeit nonlinear and iterative, to plan, design, and implement community resilience hubs.
Magnetic fields are ubiquitous in the universe; however, their origin is not fully understood. Cosmologists and astrophysicists have proposed a variety of ways in which small seed magnetic fields could be created. It is widely thought that the much larger values of the cosmic magnetic fields that we observe are a result of the amplification of these seed fields by the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism. Such a mechanism had not yet been demonstrated in a controlled laboratory environment. We conceived experiments designed to demonstrate and study the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism in the laboratory. These experiments characterize the distribution of turbulent energy among the velocity, magnetic field, and density fluctuations, providing a comprehensive picture of the energy cascade in a magnetized, turbulent plasma. The experiments build on the pathfinder experiments we have conducted on the Vulcan laser at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory in the UK and the OMEGA laser at Laboratory for Laser Energetics at Rochester. They utilize the high-intensity lasers at the Omega Laser Facility, the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at LLNL and the Laser Megajoule (LMJ) Facility in France – the largest laser facilities in the world. The goal of this project was to design and model the highly demanding experiments through simulation campaigns using FLASH, a highly capable radiation-MHD code we have developed, and large-scale 3D simulations on the Mira supercomputer at ANL. The simulations were vital to ensuring the experiments achieve the strong turbulence and large magnetic Reynolds numbers required for the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism to operate. The simulations were also critical to determining when to fire the diagnostics, since the experiments last tens of nanoseconds but the signals of the strongly amplified magnetic fields last only a few nanoseconds. Finally, high-fidelity, validated FLASH simulations were crucial to interpreting the results of the experiments. By combining theory, experiments, and simulations, we were able to succeed in demonstrating and characterizing the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism. The effort leveraged (1) the emergence of the Flash Center for Computational Science as a leader in numerical modeling of academic High Energy Density Physics (HEDP) experiments; (2) the FLASH code, which has been developed by the Flash Center and is a leadership-class, multi- physics, publicly available community code that has been applied successfully in many laser-driven experiments; (3) the expertise acquired through pathfinder experiments we performed on the Vulcan laser at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory in the UK and on the Omega laser facility; (4) the experience we have gained in designing and interpreting these experiments using validated simulations done with FLASH; and (5) the close collaborations we have established with outstanding experimental groups in the US and abroad. The broader impacts of the project are two-fold: (1) the work furthered the transformation of the academic community’s ability to design and analyze HEDP experiments at large laser facilities that is happening through the availability of FLASH and its widespread adoption by the academic community – a community that previously had had limited access to open and validated hydro/MHD simulation tools for HEDP experiments; and (2) the work trained young scientists to design and interpret HEDP experiments using validated simulations – a critical national need.
Constrained optimization in the context of time dependent, partial differential equations (PDE) leads to a symmetric, block-tridiagonal system of nonlinear equations that must be solved repeatedly in an iterative solution strategy. The blocks represent spatial discretization, while the connection between the blocks represents a forward and backward integration in time. The focus of this project is to apply a parallel-in-time (PiT) solution technique to the large block-triangular system.
This technical report summarized the contribution of the DADAIST project funded by the Data Model Convergence Initiative via the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) investments at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Specifically, we report the development of the NeuroMANCER (Neural Modules with Adaptive Nonlinear Constraints and Efficient Regularizations), a new open-source Scientific Machine Learning library for formulating and solving parametric constrained optimization problems, physics-informed system identification, and parametric optimal control problems. NeuroMANCER is using differentiable programming to combine modern data-driven models and optimization modeling language into a coherent algorithmic and software framework. NeuroMANCER is a Pytorch-based framework and adopts much of its philosophy focused on research and development, rapid prototyping, and streamlined deployment. Strong emphasis is given to extensibility, interoperability with the PyTorch ecosystem, and quick adaptability to custom domain problems. Neuromancer repository contains a comprehensive library of differentiable modules, including custom activation functions, matrix factorizations, deep learning architectures, neural differential equations, differential equation solvers, implicit layers such as iterative solvers, high-level API for symbolic expressions, API for modeling and control of dynamical systems, and extensive set of tutorial code examples in the form of python scripts and jupyter notebooks.
This report summarizes the research and capabilities developed as part of the project “Analysis and Validation of Critical Infrastructure Models using Model Order Reduction” (CI-MOR) LDRD project. CI-MOR research enables the solution of large, complex optimization models that naturally arise in national security challenges involving critical infrastructures. Specifically, CI-MOR researchers developed methods to (1) rigorously approximate complex, nonlinear optimization formulations, (2) identify alternative near-optimal solutions, (3) accelerate optimization workflows used for complex applications, and (4) rigorously integrate domain knowledge in stochastic-process models. This report provides an overview of the research done in CI-MOR, and we describe application exemplars used to illustrate CI-MOR capabilities. Furthermore, we describe the software developed by CI-MOR that researchers can leverage to analyze new applications.
Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.
Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.
Accurately estimating rolling and air resistance is essential for predicting the energy consumption of vehicles. This study presents a field-based approach using a rolldown test to simultaneously determine rolling and air resistance coefficients. Unlike prior methods that frequently used simulations or models, we employ a goal programming methodology to improve precision and evaluate the actual vehicle and environmental conditions. Our methodology was tested using a Class 8 Freightliner eCascadia on a surveyed road section, ensuring controlled conditions for data collection. By analyzing the time–velocity relationship across multiple test runs, we derived resistance coefficients for both loaded and unloaded conditions. The study confirms that rolling resistance is largely independent of velocity at low speeds but exhibits a nonlinear dependency at higher speeds. Additionally, road surface conditions, tire condition, axle configuration, aerodynamic properties, and weather conditions significantly impact resistance values, emphasizing the need for real-world testing rather than relying solely on standardized projections. Our results align with existing literature while demonstrating the efficacy of the goal programming approach in refining resistance estimates. This work contributes to improved vehicle energy modeling, offering practical insights for fleet operators and policymakers seeking accurate energy consumption predictions for electric trucks operating under varying environmental conditions.
We benchmark the accuracy of Dunning correlation-consistent Gaussian basis sets for computing frequencydependent second-order hyperpolarizabilities relevant to second-harmonic generation (SHG), using multiresolution analysis (MRA) as a reference. Basis set errors are analyzed using a unit-sphere representation of the effective hyperpolarizability vector, enabling direct assessment of directional error structure. We introduce a relative RMS total error metric that integrates directional deviations over the unit sphere and complement it with signed projection errors that distinguish over- and underestimation. Unsupervised clustering based on these signed directional metrics reveals four distinct convergence behaviors across a set of 68 molecules. Unitsphere visualizations of representative systems show that basis set errors are often highly anisotropic and localized along specific bond directions, even when global error measures appear small. Doubly augmented basis sets consistently outperform singly augmented ones, and core-polarization functions are required for uniform convergence in second-row systems. Overall, this work demonstrates that directional analysis combined with clustering provides a robust framework for understanding basis set convergence in nonlinear optical response properties.
The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it has also become an important tool to understand changes in radiative feedbacks due to evolving patterns of warming, a phenomenon called the “pattern effect.” To better study this method, this paper presents a protocol for creating atmospheric Green's functions to serve as the basis for a model intercomparison project, GFMIP. The protocol has been developed using a series of sensitivity tests performed with the HadAM3 atmosphere-only general circulation model, along with existing and new simulations from other models. Our preliminary results have uncovered nonlinearities in the response of the atmosphere to surface temperature changes, including an asymmetrical response to warming versus cooling patch perturbations, and a change in the dependence of the response on the magnitude and size of the patches. These nonlinearities suggest that the pattern effect may depend on the heterogeneity of warming as well as its location. These experiments have also revealed tradeoffs in experimental design between patch size, perturbation strength, and the length of control and patch simulations. The protocol chosen on the basis of these experiments balances scientific utility with the simulation time and setup required by the Green's function approach. Running these simulations will further our understanding of many aspects of atmospheric response, from the pattern effect and radiative feedbacks to changes in circulation, cloudiness, and precipitation.
Phase I of the OC6 project is focused on examining why offshore wind design tools underpredict the response (loads/motion) of the OC5-DeepCwind semisubmersible at its surge and pitch natural frequencies. Previous investigations showed that the underprediction was primarily related to nonlinear hydrodynamic loading, so two new validation campaigns were performed to separately examine the different hydrodynamic load components. In this paper, we validate a variety of tools against this new test data, focusing on the ability to accurately model the low-frequency loads on a semisubmersible floater when held fixed under wave excitation and when forced to oscillate in the surge direction. However, it is observed that models providing better load predictions in these two scenarios do not necessarily produce a more accurate motion response in a moored configuration.
Phase II of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project was used to verify the implementation of a new soil-structure interaction (SSI) model for use within offshore wind turbine modeling software. The REDWIN Macro-element model implemented and verified in this study enables a computationally efficient way to model the linear and nonlinear SSI problem, including hysteretic damping, of a monopile structure. The modeling approach was integrated into several modeling tools and a series of increasingly complex simulations was conducted using the IEA 10MW reference turbine mounted on a monopile support structure to verify the coupling between the tools and the REDWIN Macro-element SSI model. This campaign includes only numerical verification between various software and modeling approaches so no experimental measurements are available. The load cases (LC) considered include: LC1 – static response of the tower and substructure LC2 – frequency and mode-shape analysis of the tower and substructure LC3 – response of the tower and substructure due to wind-only loading LC4 – response of the tower and substructure due to wave-only loading LC5 – response of the tower and substructure due to wind and wave loading. Detailed properties of the modeled system are found in the following reference, “Bergua, Roger, Amy Robertson, Jason Jonkman, and Andy Platt. 2021. "Specification Document for OC6 Phase II: Verification of an Advanced Soil-Structure Interaction Model for Offshore Wind Turbines.” Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5000-79938. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/79938.pdf. Details on the results from the OC6 Phase II project can be found in the following reference, “Bergua R, Robertson A, Jonkman J, et al. OC6 Phase II: Integration and verification of a new soil–structure interaction model for offshore wind design.” Wind Energy. 2022;25(5):793-810. doi:10.1002/we.2698
The evaluation of radiative forcing associated with aerosol–cloud interactions remains a significant source of uncertainty in future climate projections. The problem is confounded by the fact that aerosol particles influence clouds locally and that averaging to larger spatial and/or temporal scales carries biases that depend on the heterogeneity and spatial correlation of the interacting fields and the nonlinearity of the responses. Mimicking commonly applied satellite data analyses for calculation of albedo susceptibility S o , we quantify S o aggregation biases using an ensemble of 127 large eddy simulations of marine stratocumulus. We explore the cloud field properties that control this spatial aggregation bias and quantify the bias for a large range of shallow stratocumulus cloud conditions manifesting a variety of morphologies and ranges of cloud fractions. We show that S o spatial aggregation biases can be on the order of hundreds of percent, depending on the methodology. Key uncertainties emanate from the typically applied adiabatic drop concentration N d retrieval, the correlation between aerosol and cloud fields, and the extent to which averaging reduces the variance in cloud albedo A c and N d . So biases are more often positive than negative and are highly correlated with biases in the liquid water path adjustment. Temporal aggregation biases are shown to offset spatial aggregation biases. Both spatial and temporal biases have significant implications for observationally based assessments of aerosol indirect effects and our inferences of underlying aerosol–cloud–radiation effects.
No simulation of intense beam transport has accurately reproduced measurements at the level of beam halo. One potential explanation of this discrepancy is a lack of knowledge of the initial distribution of particles in six-dimensional (6D) phase space. A direct 6D measurement of an ion beam was recently performed at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) Beam Test Facility (BTF), revealing nonlinear transverse-longitudinal correlations in the beam core that affect downstream evolution. Unfortunately, direct 6D measurements are limited in resolution and dynamic range; here, we discuss the use of three slits and one screen to measure a 5D projection of the 6D phase space distribution, overcoming these limitations at the cost of one dimension. We examine the measured 5D distribution before and after transport through the BTF and compare to particle-in-cell simulations. We also discuss the possibility of reconstructing the 6D distribution from 5D and 4D projections.
In two-dimensional artificial crystals with large real-space periodicity, the nonlinear current response to a large applied electric field can feature a strong angular dependence, which encodes information about the band dispersion and Berry curvature of isolated electronic Bloch minibands. Within the relaxation-time approximation, we obtain analytic expressions up to infinite order in the driving field for the current in a band-projected theory with time-reversal and trigonal symmetry. For a fixed field strength, the dependence of the current on the direction of the applied field is given by rose curves whose petal structure is symmetry constrained and is obtained from an expansion in real-space translation vectors. We illustrate our theory with calculations on periodically buckled graphene and twisted double bilayer graphene, wherein the discussed physics can be accessed at experimentally relevant field strengths.
In this project, Clarkson University, in collaboration with Southern Methodist University and University of Pittsburgh, conducted the research to model, design, and implement a sophisticated generation and transmission co-optimization planning decision tool, called Multi-stage and Multi-timescale robust Co-Optimization Planning (MMCOP). The MMCOP decision tool intends to facilitate generation and transmission co-optimization planning of emerging power systems, while mitigating risks and uncertainties in both short-term operation dynamics and long-term policy and technology changes. Long-term power system planning aims at optimizing asset utilization by investing in a proper mix of various generation technologies and transmission lines to supply the future load growth. In particular, the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which is designed to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions by setting a national limit on carbon pollution from power plants, may dramatically change the landscape of the power industry by further promoting clean energy and phasing out emissions-intensive generation technologies. In addition, novel non-wire alternatives (e.g., demand response (DR), distributed generation (DG), energy efficiency (EE), and smart grid technologies) and the computational complexity for large-scale systems significantly complicate the system planning procedure even further. However, existing conventional planning approaches neglect short-term variability and uncertainty of renewable energy, hourly chronological operation details, and physical nonlinear characteristics of the alternating current transmission network. As a result, existing conventional planning approaches may not work properly, and power systems reliability could be in jeopardy. In observing the limitations of existing conventional planning approaches and addressing new challenges of emerging power systems, the main scope of this project to develop co-optimization planning models within a multi-stage and multi-timescale framework. In particular, random contingencies, key uncertainty factors, and AC power flows are included to derive expansion plans while considering both long-term reliability and short-term flexibility.
This software showcases the enhanced capabilities of the Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) algorithm through the application of the weak form, resulting in WLaSDI. WLaSDI first compresses the data, then projects it onto test functions, and subsequently learns the local latent space models. Notably, WLaSDI demonstrates significantly improved robustness to noise. Using weak-form equation learning techniques, WLaSDI achieves local latent space modeling. Compared to the standard sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) used in LaSDI, the variance reduction of the weak form ensures robust and precise latent space recovery, enabling fast, robust, and accurate simulations. We demonstrate the efficacy of WLaSDI against LaSDI using several common benchmark examples, including viscid and inviscid Burgers', radial advection, and heat conduction. For instance, in 1D inviscid Burgers' simulations with up to 100% Gaussian white noise, WLaSDI maintains relative errors consistently below 6%, whereas LaSDI errors can exceed 10,000%. Similarly, in radial advection simulations, WLaSDI keeps relative errors below 16%, compared to potential errors of up to 10,000% with LaSDI. Additionally, WLaSDI achieves significant speedups, such as a 140X speedup in 1D Burgers' simulations compared to the corresponding full order model.
Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.