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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Visualisation and outlier detection for probability density function ensembles

Abstract Exploratory data analysis (EDA) for functional data—data objects where observations are entire functions—is a difficult problem that has seen significant attention in recent literature. This surge in interest is motivated by the ubiquitous nature of functional data, which are prevalent in applications across fields such as meteorology, biology, medicine and engineering. Empirical probability density functions (PDFs) can be viewed as constrained functional data objects that must integrate to one and be nonnegative. They show up in contexts such as yearly income distributions, zooplankton size structure in oceanography and in connectivity patterns in the brain, among others. While PDF data are certainly common in modern research, little attention has been given to EDA specifically for PDFs. In this paper, we extend several methods for EDA on functional data for PDFs and compare them on simulated data that exhibit different types of variation, designed to mimic that seen in real‐world applications. We then use our new methods to perform EDA on the breakthrough curves observed in gas transport simulations for underground fracture networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2011

Canopy Spectral Invariants: Application to Classification of Forest Types from Hyperspectral Data - Part 2

Many studies have been conducted to demonstrate the ability of hyperspectral data to discriminate plant dominant species. Most of them have employed the use of empirically based techniques, which are site specific, requires some initial training based on characteristics of known leaf and/or canopy spectra and therefore may not be extendable to operational use or adapted to changing or unknown land cover. In this paper we propose a physically based approach for separation of dominant forest type using hyperspectral data. The radiative transfer theory of canopy spectral invariants underlies the approach, which facilitates parameterization of the canopy reflectance in terms of the leaf spectral scattering and two spectrally invariant and structurally varying variables - recollision and directional escape probabilities. The methodology is based on the idea of retrieving spectrally invariant parameters from hyperspectral data first, and then relating their values to structural characteristics of three-dimensional canopy structure. Theoretical and empirical analyses of ground and airborne data acquired by Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) over two sites in New England, USA, suggest that the canopy spectral invariants convey information about canopy structure at both the macro- and micro-scales. The total escape probability (one minus recollision probability) varies as a power function with the exponent related to the number of nested hierarchical levels present in the pixel. Its base is a geometrical mean of the local total escape probabilities and accounts for the cumulative effect of canopy structure over a wide range of scales. The ratio of the directional to the total escape probability becomes independent of the number of hierarchical levels and is a function of the canopy structure at the macro-scale such as tree spatial distribution, crown shape and size, within-crown foliage density and ground cover. These properties allow for the natural separation of dominant forest classes based on the location of points on the total escape probability vs the ratio log-log plane.

Schull, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Guidelines for Determining the Load Resistance of Thin-Glass Triple-Pane Insulating Glass Unit Configurations

This guideline is intended to provide information relevant to the specification of triple- pane insulating glass (IG) units where the thickness of lite number 2 (center lite) is less than or equal to the thickness of lite numbers 1 and 3. Procedures and charts are presented to determine the load resistance (LR) of common soda-lime glass thicknesses from 0.7 mm (3/128 in.) to 1.8 mm (9/128 in.) exposed to a uniform lateral load of short or long duration, for a 0.008 probability of breakage. Deflection under load, horizontal self-weight deflection, and natural frequency procedures and charts are also included to aide in the selection of glass thickness to meet manufacturing and/or loading criteria determined by the user.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Review of Resilience and Long-Term Planning in Power and Water Systems in the United States

There is recognition among power and water utilities that the frequency and magnitude of high consequence and low probability events could increase as a result of climate change. The interconnected nature of energy-water systems raises the possibility of cascading failures, increasing complexity and risks. Resilience and long-term planning are important ways of weathering the effects of climate change. First, to understand more about resilience, we reviewed existing literature on resilience definitions, metrics, and modeling, focusing on integrated water-power systems. Second, to understand how resilience and planning are being applied in practice, we interviewed utilities and organized, curated, and synthesized the interview data to arrive at several key findings, which are presented here. We found that there is not a consistent definition for resilience, yet it is something that utilities regularly plan for, often with different names and varying methods/measures. However, there is a tangible shift in the industry towards defining and determining measurable resilience metrics. While the exact metrics are a work in progress, utilities are taking steps forward by (1) putting people and culture at the center of resilience, (2) recognizing their own interdependencies, and (3) pursuing better cross-sector collaboration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1974

Possible lunar ring dikes

A search for lunar features that showed characteristics of terrestrial ring dikes was conducted, using the Lunar Orbiter series of photographs. Features exhibiting one or more of the following four criteria were included as lunar analogs to terrestrial ring dikes: (1) inner ridges approximately concentric with the crater wall, (2) inner rills approximately concentric with the crater wall, (3) outer ridges and/or rills approximately concentric with the crater wall, and (4) interior and exterior slopes of the crater wall approximately equal. Features exhibiting each of the four criteria were found, and some had combinations of two or more including rills merging into ridges - e.g., in Taruntius and Posidonius. Gambart is an example of equal inner and outer slopes, while Hesiodus A and Marth are two of the best examples of complete inner rings concentric with the outer rings. Ten per cent of the candidates were probable impact craters but had subsequent volcanic activity of a ring dike nature. The initial search showed a distribution of the possible lunar ring dikes that was nonrandom and strongly associated with the margins of the maria, further implying that they are volcanic features.

Cameron, W. S.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Equivalent absorption coefficients generated from frequency probability distributions

A flexible and computationally accurate method of treating aerosol scattering in spectral regions in which gaseous absorption is important is described. In the method, line-by-line absorption coefficients are computed as a function of pressure, temperature, and absorber gas for the spectral region of interest. The coefficients are sorted into a probability distribution which is converted into a cumulative probability distribution, which in turn can be inverted due to its monotonic nature. The inverted distribution is a smooth curve giving the absorption coefficient as a function of an independent variable on the domain. The frequency integration of the radiative transfer equation can then be performed by a quadrature technique with values of the absorption coefficient determined from the inverted distribution curve. The method is illustrated by applying it to the 9.6 micron band of ozone.

Ackerman, T. P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Radial mixing of material in the asteroidal zone

The asteroid belt shows radial zoning of compositional structure. The most abundant types are successively S, C, and P types from the inner to the outer parts of the main belt, and D type in the Trojan clouds. This paper examines processes for producing this structure before, during, and after the accretion of asteroids. The initial structure is established by temperature and composition gradients in the turbulent solar nebula during the collapse of the presolar cloud. The radial scale of the zoning, comparable to the disk thickness, favors disk models with relatively low turbulent viscosity. Radial decay of solid bodies due to gas drag during settling to the central plane and planetesimal formation probably causes only a small degree of mixing, due to the systematic nature of drag-induced motions. The formation of Jupiter causes scattering of massive planetesimals from that planet's zone through the asteroid zone. The present random velocities of asteroids resulting from that stirring process are consistent with the radial scale of transitions between compositional types.

Ruzmaikina, T. V.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Analysis of the progressive failure of brittle matrix composites

This report investigates two of the most common modes of localized failures, namely, periodic fiber-bridged matrix cracks and transverse matrix cracks. A modification of Daniels' bundle theory is combined with Weibull's weakest link theory to model the statistical distribution of the periodic matrix cracking strength for an individual layer. Results of the model predictions are compared with experimental data from the open literature. Extensions to the model are made to account for possible imperfections within the layer (i.e., nonuniform fiber lengths, irregular crack spacing, and degraded in-situ fiber properties), and the results of these studies are presented. A generalized shear-lag analysis is derived which is capable of modeling the development of transverse matrix cracks in material systems having a general multilayer configuration and under states of full in-plane load. A method for computing the effective elastic properties for the damaged layer at the global level is detailed based upon the solution for the effects of the damage at the local level. This methodology is general in nature and is therefore also applicable to (0(sub m)/90(sub n))(sub s) systems. The characteristic stress-strain response for more general cases is shown to be qualitatively correct (experimental data is not available for a quantitative evaluation), and the damage evolution is recorded in terms of the matrix crack density as a function of the applied strain. Probabilistic effects are introduced to account for the statistical nature of the material strengths, thus allowing cumulative distribution curves for the probability of failure to be generated for each of the example laminates. Additionally, Oh and Finney's classic work on fracture location in brittle materials is extended and combined with the shear-lag analysis. The result is an analytical form for predicting the probability density function for the location of the next transverse crack occurrence within a crack bounded region. The results of this study verified qualitatively the validity of assuming a uniform crack spacing (as was done in the shear-lag model).

Thomas, David J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Prebiotic Evolution of Nitrogen Compounds

Support from this four year grant has funded our research on two general problems. One involves attempts to model the abiotic formation of simple source compounds for functional biomolecules, their concentration from dilute state in the hydrosphere and, in several cases, surface induced reactions to form precursor monomers for bioactive end products (refs. 1-5). Because of the pervasiveness and antiquity of phosphate based biochemistry and the catalytic activity of RNA we have exploring the hypothesis of an RNA World as an early stage in the emergence of life. This concept is now rather generally considered, but has been questioned due to the earlier lack of an experimentally demonstrated successful scheme for the spontaneous formation of ribose phosphate, the key backbone molecule in RNA. That impediment has now been removed. This has been achieved by demonstrating probable sources of activated (condensed) highly soluble and strongly sorbed phosphates in nature (Refs. 1,2) and effective condensation of aldehyde phosphates to form ribose phosphate in high yield (ref.6), thereby placing the RNA World concept on a somewhat safer experimental footing. Like all work in this field these experiments are oversimplifications that largely ignore competing side reactions with other compounds expected to be present. None the less our choice of experimental conditions aim at selective processes that eliminate interfering reactions. We have also sought to narrow the credibility gap by simulating geophysically and geochemically plausible conditions surrounding the putative prebiotic reactions.

Arrhenius, G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Trains of Magnetic Holes and Magnetic Humps in the Heliosheath

This paper discusses the existence of trains (sequences) of magnetic holes and magnetic humps in the heliosheath, based on Voyager 1 observations made in the intervals DOY 312.9707 - 317.0879, 2005 and DOY 185.2762 - 186.7957, 2005. These two trains represent a class of compressive fluctuations in the heliosheath. Varying from one region or time interval to another, this class of fluctuations probably depends on the varying conditions upstream the Termination Shock and its nature. The trains of magnetic holes in the heliosheath resemble certain magnetic field strength fluctuations observed in planetary magnetosheaths.

Burlaga, Leonard↗
NASA NTRS1960

Solution of Nonlinear Systems

The problem of solving systems of nonlinear equations has been relatively neglected in the mathematical literature, especially in the textbooks, in comparison to the corresponding linear problem. Moreover, treatments that have an appearance of generality fail to discuss the nature of the solutions and the possible pitfalls of the methods suggested. Probably it is unrealistic to expect that a unified and comprehensive treatment of the subject will evolve, owing to the great variety of situations possible, especially in the applied field where some requirement of human or mechanical efficiency is always present. Therefore we attempt here simply to pose the problem and to describe and partially appraise the methods of solution currently in favor.

Turner, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, C.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Could Road Constructions Be More Hazardous Than an Earthquake in Terms of Mass Movement?

Roads can have a significant impact on the frequency of mass wasting events in mountainous areas. However, characterizing the extent and pervasiveness of mass movements over time has rarely been documented due to limitations in available data sources to consistently map such events. We monitored the evolution of a road network and assessed its effect on mass movements for a 11-year window in Arhavi, Turkey. The main road construction projects run in the area are associated with a hydroelectric power plant as well as other road extension works and are clearly associated with the vast majority (90.1%) of mass movements in the area. We also notice that the overall number and size of the mass movements are much larger than in the naturally-occurring comparison area. This means that the sediment load originating from the anthropogenically induced mass movements is larger than its counterpart associated with naturally occurred landslides. Notably, this extra sediment load could cause river channel aggregation, reduce accommodation space and as a consequence, it could lead to an increase in the probability and severity of flooding along the river channel. This marks a strong and negative effect of human activities on the natural course of earth surface processes. We also compare frequency-area distributions of human-induced mass movements mapped in this study and co-seismic landslide inventories from the literature. By doing so, we aim to better understand the consequences of human effects on mass movements in a comparative manner. Our findings show that the damage generated by the road construction in terms of sediment loads to river channels is compatible with the possible effect of a theoretical earthquake with a magnitude greater than Mw=6.0.

Hakan Tanyas↗
NASA NTRS2014

Analyzing the Impacts of Natural Environments on Launch and Landing Availability for NASA's Exploration Systems Development Programs

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth orbit. Natural environments information is an important asset for NASA's development of the next generation space transportation system as part of the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Programs, which includes the Space Launch System (SLS) and Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Programs. Natural terrestrial environment conditions - such as wind, lightning and sea states - can affect vehicle safety and performance during multiple mission phases ranging from pre-launch ground processing to landing and recovery operations, including all potential abort scenarios. Space vehicles are particularly sensitive to these environments during the launch/ascent and the entry/landing phases of mission operations. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch provides engineering design support for NASA space vehicle projects and programs by providing design engineers and mission planners with natural environments definitions as well as performing custom analyses to help characterize the impacts the natural environment may have on vehicle performance. One such analysis involves assessing the impact of natural environments to operational availability. Climatological time series of operational surface weather observations are used to calculate probabilities of meeting/exceeding various sets of hypothetical vehicle-specific parametric constraint thresholds. Outputs are tabulated by month and hour of day to show both seasonal and diurnal variation. This paper will discuss how climate analyses are performed by the MSFC Natural Environments Branch to support the ESD Launch Availability (LA) Technical Performance Measure (TPM), the SLS Launch Availability due to Natural Environments TPM, and several MPCV (Orion) launch and landing availability analyses - including the 2014 Orion Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission.

Altino, Karen M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Aircraft Separation Algorithm with Feedback and Perturbation

A separation algorithm is a set of rules that tell aircraft how to maneuver in order to maintain a minimum distance between them. This paper investigates demonstrating that separation algorithms satisfy the FAA requirement for the occurrence of incidents by means of simulation. Any demonstration that a separation algorithm, or any other aspect of flight, satisfies the FAA requirement is a challenge because of the stringent nature of the requirement and the complexity of airspace operations. The paper begins with a probability and statistical analysis of both the FAA requirement and demonstrating meeting it by a Monte Carlo approach. It considers the geometry of maintaining separation when one plane must change its flight path. It then develops a simple feedback control law that guides the planes on their paths. The presence of feedback control permits the introduction of perturbations, and the stochastic nature of the chosen perturbation is examined. The simulation program is described. This paper is an early effort in the realistic demonstration of a stringent requirement. Much remains to be done.

White, Allan L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Feynman-Kac based numerical method for the exit time probability of a class of transport problems

The exit time probability, which gives the likelihood that an initial condition leaves a prescribed region of the phase space of a dynamical system at, or before, a given time, is arguably one of the most natural and important transport problems. In this work, we present an accurate and efficient numerical method for computing this probability for systems described by non-autonomous (time-dependent) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) or their equivalent Fokker-Planck partial differential equations. The method is based on the direct approximation of the Feynman-Kac formula that establishes a link between the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation and the forward SDE. The Feynman-Kac formula is approximated using the Gauss-Hermite quadrature rules and piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomials, and a GPU accelerated matrix representation is used to compute the entire time evolution of the exit time probability using a single pass of the algorithm. The method is unconditionally stable, exhibits second order convergence in space, first order convergence in time, and it is straightforward to parallelize. Applications are presented to the advection diffusion of a passive tracer in a fluid flow exhibiting chaotic advection, and to the runaway acceleration of electrons in a plasma in the presence of an electric field, collisions, and radiation damping. Benchmarks against analytical solutions as well as comparisons with explicit and implicit finite difference standard methods for the adjoint Fokker-Planck equation are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗