Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Multivariate sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

Beyond leaf habit: generalities in plant function across 97 tropical dry forest tree species

Leaf habit has been hypothesized to define a linkage between the slow-fast plant economic spectrum and the drought resistance-avoidance trade-off in tropical forests (‘slow-safe vs fast-risky’). However, variation in hydraulic traits as a function of leaf habit has rarely been explored for a large number of species. We sampled leaf and branch functional traits of 97 tropical dry forest tree species from four sites to investigate whether patterns of trait variation varied consistently in relation to leaf habit along the ‘slow-safe vs fast-risky’ trade-off. Leaf habit explained from 0% to 43.69% of individual trait variation. We found that evergreen and semi-deciduous species differed in their location along the multivariate trait ordination when compared to deciduous species. While deciduous species showed consistent trait values, evergreen species trait values varied as a function of the site. Last, trait values varied in relation to the proportion of deciduous species in the plant community. Here We found that leaf habit describes the strategies that define drought avoidance and plant economics in tropical trees. However, leaf habit alone does not explain patterns of trait variation, which suggests quantifying site-specific or species-specific uncertainty in trait variation as the way forward.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

National serosurvey and risk mapping reveal widespread distribution of Coxiella burnetii in Kenya

Coxiella burnetii, the causative agent of Q fever, is an emerging pathogen that has the potential to cause severe chronic infections in animals and humans worldwide. The detrimental impact on public health is projected to be higher in the low- and middle-income countries given their lower capacity to sustain effective surveillance and response measures. We implemented a national serosurvey of cattle in Kenya to map the spatial distribution of the pathogen. The study used serum samples that were collected from randomly selected cattle in different ago-ecological zones across the country. These samples were screened for the pathogen using PrioCHECK Ruminant Q Fever AB Plate ELISA kit. The laboratory findings were analyzed using INLA package to identify risk factors for C. burnetii exposure from herd- and animal-level factors, area, and bioclimatic datasets accessed from online databases. A total of 6,593 cattle were recruited for the study; of these, 7.9% (95% CI; 7.2–8.5) were seropositive. Outputs from the multivariable analysis revealed that the animal age and some of the geographical variables including wind speed, area under shrubs and “petric calcisols” type of soil were significantly associated with C. burnetii seropositivity. Being a calf, weaner or subadult was associated with lower odds of exposure compared to being an adult by 0.24 (credibility interval: 2.5% and 97.5%), 0.41 (0.30–0.55) and 0.51 (0.38–0.69), respectively. In addition, a unit increase in the wind speed increased the odds of C. burnetii seropositivity by 1.27 (1.05–1.52) while an increase on the land area under shrubs was associated with lower odds of exposure (0.67 [0.47–0.69]). The effect of petric calcisols was non-linear; an increase of the land area with this soil type was associated with an exponential increase in C. burnetii seropositivity. This study provides new data on C. burnetii seroprevalence, information of its risk factors and a prevalence map that can be used for C. burnetii risk surveillance and control. The identification of environmental risk factors for C. burnetii exposure, and the increasing awareness of the zoonotic potential of the pathogen, calls for the need to enhance the existing collaborations for the surveillance and control of C. burnetii in line with the One Health framework. The evidence generated on the potential role of environmental factors can also be used to design nature-based interventions, such as replacement of vegetation in denuded areas, to reduce potential for the aerosolization of the pathogen. Livestock vaccination in the hotspots would also reduce animal infections and hence the contamination of the environment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) is a potentially valuable multivariate statistical tool for extracting vegetation feedbacks to the atmosphere in either observations or coupled Earth system models. The reliability of GEFA at capturing the terrestrial impacts on regional climate is demonstrated here using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM), with focus on North Africa. The feedback is assessed statistically by applying GEFA to output from a fully coupled control run. To reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional or full GEFA is refined through stepwise GEFA by dropping unimportant forcings. Two ensembles of dynamical experiments are developed for the Sahel or West African monsoon region against which GEFA-based vegetation feedbacks are evaluated. In these dynamical experiments, regional leaf area index (LAI) is modified either alone or in conjunction with soil moisture, with the latter runs motivated by strong regional soil moisture–LAI coupling. Stepwise GEFA boasts higher consistency between statistically and dynamically assessed atmospheric responses to land surface anomalies than full GEFA, especially with short data records. GEFA-based atmospheric responses are more consistent with the coupled soil moisture–LAI experiments, indicating that GEFA is assessing the combined impacts of coupled vegetation and soil moisture. Both the statistical and dynamical assessments reveal a negative vegetation–rainfall feedback in the Sahel associated with an atmospheric stability mechanism in CESM versus a weaker positive feedback in the West African monsoon region associated with a moisture recycling mechanism in CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurements of $\textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}}\textrm{W}$ differential cross sections and the leptonic charge asymmetry at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

Measurements of properties of top quark-antiquark pair production in association with a W boson in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV are presented, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 , recorded by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. Events are selected based on the presence of either two leptons with the same electric charge or three leptons, and multiple jets and b-tagged jets. We present measurements of differential production cross sections as a function of kinematic variables sensitive to different aspects of the process modeling, using a multivariate discriminator in the two-lepton selection region and a simple selection-based method in the three-lepton region. The normalized cross section measurements are generally consistent with the standard model expectations, while we observe larger values compared to the expectations in the absolute cross section measurements, consistent with previous inclusive cross section measurements. In addition, we measure the leptonic charge asymmetry of this process, obtaining an observed value of ${A}_c^{\ell }=-{0.19}_{-0.18}^{+0.16}$, consistent with the expectation of −0.085 ± 0.006 predicted by next-to-leading order simulations.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗

COVID-19 prevention at institutions of higher education, United States, 2020–2021: implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions

Background, In early 2020, following the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, institutions of higher education (IHEs) across the United States rapidly pivoted to online learning to reduce the risk of on-campus virus transmission. We explored IHEs’ use of this and other nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the subsequent pandemic-affected academic year 2020–2021. Methods, From December 2020 to June 2021, we collected publicly available data from official webpages of 847 IHEs, including all public (n = 547) and a stratified random sample of private four-year institutions (n = 300). Abstracted data included NPIs deployed during the academic year such as changes to the calendar, learning environment, housing, common areas, and dining; COVID-19 testing; and facemask protocols. We performed weighted analysis to assess congruence with the October 29, 2020, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance for IHEs. For IHEs offering ≥50% of courses in person, we used weighted multivariable linear regression to explore the association between IHE characteristics and the summated number of implemented NPIs. Results, Overall, 20% of IHEs implemented all CDC-recommended NPIs. The most frequently utilized NPI was learning environment changes (91%), practiced as one or more of the following modalities: distance or hybrid learning opportunities (98%), 6-ft spacing (60%), and reduced class sizes (51%). Additionally, 88% of IHEs specified facemask protocols, 78% physically changed common areas, and 67% offered COVID-19 testing. Among the 33% of IHEs offering ≥50% of courses in person, having < 1000 students was associated with having implemented fewer NPIs than IHEs with ≥ 1000 students. Conclusions, Only 1 in 5 IHEs implemented all CDC recommendations, while a majority implemented a subset, most commonly changes to the classroom, facemask protocols, and COVID-19 testing. IHE enrollment size and location were associated with degree of NPI implementation. Additional research is needed to assess adherence to NPI implementation in IHE settings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Deciphering phase evolution in complex metal oxide thin films via high-throughput materials synthesis and characterization

Discovery of structure-property relationships in thin film alloys of complex metal oxides enabled by high-throughput materials synthesis and characterization facilities is demonstrated here with a case-study. In this study, thin films of binary transition metal oxides (Ti–Zn) are prepared by pulsed laser deposition with continuously varying Ti:Zn ratio, creating combinatorial samples for exploration of the properties of this material family. The atomic structure and electronic properties are probed by spatially resolved techniques including x-ray absorption near edge structures (XANES) and x-ray fluorescence (XRF) at the Ti and Zn K-edge, x-ray diffraction, and spectroscopic ellipsometry. The observed properties as a function of Ti:Zn ratio are resolved into mixtures of five distinguishable phases by deploying multivariate curve resolution analysis on the XANES spectral series, under constraints set by results from the other characterization techniques. First-principles computations based on density function theory connect the observed properties of each distinct phase with structural and spectral characteristics of crystalline polymorphs of Ti–Zn oxide. Continuous tuning of the optical absorption edge as a function of Ti:Zn ratio, including the unusual observation of negative optical bowing, exemplifies a functional property of the film correlated to the phase evolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

HSC-XXL: Baryon budget of the 136 XXL groups and clusters

Abstract We present our determination of the baryon budget for an X-ray-selected XXL sample of 136 galaxy groups and clusters spanning nearly two orders of magnitude in mass (M500 ∼ 1013–1015 M⊙) and the redshift range 0 ≲ z ≲ 1. Our joint analysis is based on the combination of Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP) weak-lensing mass measurements, XXL X-ray gas mass measurements, and HSC and Sloan Digital Sky Survey multiband photometry. We carry out a Bayesian analysis of multivariate mass-scaling relations of gas mass, galaxy stellar mass, stellar mass of brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs), and soft-band X-ray luminosity, by taking into account the intrinsic covariance between cluster properties, selection effect, weak-lensing mass calibration, and observational error covariance matrix. The mass-dependent slope of the gas mass–total mass (M500) relation is found to be $1.29_{-0.10}^{+0.16}$, which is steeper than the self-similar prediction of unity, whereas the slope of the stellar mass–total mass relation is shallower than unity; $0.85_{-0.09}^{+0.12}$. The BCG stellar mass weakly depends on cluster mass with a slope of $0.49_{-0.10}^{+0.11}$. The baryon, gas mass, and stellar mass fractions as a function of M500 agree with the results from numerical simulations and previous observations. We successfully constrain the full intrinsic covariance of the baryonic contents. The BCG stellar mass shows the larger intrinsic scatter at a given halo total mass, followed in order by stellar mass and gas mass. We find a significant positive intrinsic correlation coefficient between total (and satellite) stellar mass and BCG stellar mass and no evidence for intrinsic correlation between gas mass and stellar mass. All the baryonic components show no redshift evolution.

Akino, Daichi↗

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Is Breast-Conserving Therapy Appropriate for Male Breast Cancer Patients? A National Cancer Database Analysis

Background: Current treatment guidelines for male breast cancer are predominantly guided by female-only clinical trials. With scarce research, it is unclear whether breast-conserving therapy (BCT) is equivalent to mastectomy in men. We sought to compare overall survival (OS) among male breast cancer patients who underwent BCT versus mastectomy. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 8445 stage I–II (T1–2 N0–1 M0) male breast cancer patients from the National Cancer Database (2004–2014). Patients were grouped according to surgical and radiation therapy (RT). BCT was defined as partial mastectomy followed by RT. Multivariable and inverse probability of treatment-weighted (IPTW) Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare OS between treatment groups, controlling for demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics. Results: Most patients underwent total mastectomy (61.2%), whereas 18.2% underwent BCT, 12.4% underwent total mastectomy with RT, and 8.2% underwent partial mastectomy alone. In multivariable and IPTW models, partial mastectomy alone, total mastectomy alone, and total mastectomy with RT were associated with worse OS compared with BCT (p < 0.001 all). Ten-year OS was 73.8% for BCT and 56.3, 58.0 and 56.3% for other treatment approaches. Older age, higher T/N stage, histological grade, and triple-negative receptor status were associated with poorer OS (p < 0.05). Subgroup analysis by stage demonstrated similar results. Conclusions: In this national sample of male breast cancer patients, BCT was associated with greater survival. The underlying mechanisms of this association warrant further study, because more routine adoption of BCT in male breast cancer appears to translate into clinically meaningful improvements in survival.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy Combined with Multivariate Analysis for Fingerprinting Clinically Similar Fibromyalgia and Long COVID Syndromes

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic central sensitivity syndrome characterized by augmented pain processing at diffuse body sites and presents as a multimorbid clinical condition. Long COVID (LC) is a heterogenous clinical syndrome that affects 10–20% of individuals following COVID-19 infection. FM and LC share similarities with regard to the pain and other clinical symptoms experienced, thereby posing a challenge for accurate diagnosis. This research explores the feasibility of using surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) combined with soft independent modelling of class analogies (SIMCAs) to develop classification models differentiating LC and FM. Venous blood samples were collected using two supports, dried bloodspot cards (DBS, n = 48 FM and n = 46 LC) and volumetric absorptive micro-sampling tips (VAMS, n = 39 FM and n = 39 LC). A semi-permeable membrane (10 kDa) was used to extract low molecular fraction (LMF) from the blood samples, and Raman spectra were acquired using SERS with gold nanoparticles (AuNPs). Soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA) models developed with spectral data of blood samples collected in VAMS tips showed superior performance with a validation performance of 100% accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, achieving an excellent classification accuracy of 0.86 area under the curve (AUC). Amide groups, aromatic and acidic amino acids were responsible for the discrimination patterns among FM and LC syndromes, emphasizing the findings from our previous studies. Overall, our results demonstrate the ability of AuNP SERS to identify unique metabolites that can be potentially used as spectral biomarkers to differentiate FM and LC.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Increased Expression of DNAJC12 is Associated with Aggressive Phenotype of Gastric Cancer

Background: Identification of gastric cancer-related molecules is necessary to elucidate the pathological mechanisms of this heterogeneous disease. The purpose of this study was to identify novel genes associated with aggressive phenotypes of gastric cancer. Methods: Global expression profiling was conducted using tissues from four patients with metastatic gastric cancer to identify genes overexpressed in gastric cancer. Fifteen gastric cell lines and 262 pairs of surgically resected gastric tissues were subjected to mRNA expression analysis. The contribution of the candidate gene on gastric cancer cell proliferation, invasion, adhesion, and migration were evaluated using small interfering RNA. Results: DnaJ heat shock protein family (Hsp40) member C12 (DNAJC12) was identified as a candidate gene by transcriptome analysis. In clinical samples, DNAJC12 mRNA levels were higher in gastric cancer tissues compared with normal adjacent tissues. Patients with high DNAJC12 expression showed significantly shorter overall survival in our cohort and in the extra-validation cohort analyzed by a published microarray dataset. High DNAJC12 expression in gastric cancer tissues was significantly associated with lymphatic involvement, infiltrative growth type, lymph node metastasis, and advanced stage and was identified as an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in multivariable analysis. Increased expression of DNAJC12 was found in 12 of 14 examined gastric cancer cell lines. Knockdown of DNAJC12 expression significantly decreased the proliferation and invasion abilities of gastric cancer cells. Conclusions: Our findings support DNAJC12 as a candidate gene associated with aggressive phenotypes of gastric cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comparison of temperature adaptive calibration methods for laser induced fluorescence based fuel-in-oil instrument

Fuel dilution of engine oil (or fuel-in-oil, FiO) is an important issue as multiple and late-cycle fuel injection, integral to many combustion efficiency and emissions improvements (e.g., downsized boosted gasoline engines and catalyst thermal management) increases FiO rate. In addition to causing general wear and corrosion in engine due to decreased oil viscosity and pH buffering, FiO is also believed to cause destructive low speed pre-ignition (or super knock) in boosted SI engines. To understand the effects of engine operating conditions on the FiO rate, an optical diagnostic capable of measuring transient FiO on minute timescales was recently developed and demonstrated on a modified GM Ecotech engine system (Neupane et al., Applied Spectroscopy 2021). The measurement is based on adding a dye to the fuel and monitoring for its presence in oil via laser-induced fluorescence (LIF). The measured LIF signal is related to FiO concentration via pre-determined calibration factors using a multivariate classical least square (CLS) method.Since fluorescence quantum yield is a function of temperature, measured LIF intensity not only depends on FiO concentration but also oil temperature. To expand the applicability of the FiO diagnostic to transient oil-temperature conditions (e.g., cold start in practical engines), this study develops a method to account for oil-temperature variations. The effect of oil temperature (20°C - 95°C) on the LIF spectra of eight FiO samples ranging from ~0.8-15% was investigated. LIF intensities of the FiO samples decreased linearly with increasing temperature; the reductions being more significant at dye peaks. We develop a new calibration model (T-adaptive CLS) incorporating the temperature (T) effects on LIF intensity that enables simultaneous calculation of FiO and oil temperature. The improved FiO diagnostic with T-adaptive calibration is more robust, and applicable to varying oil-temperature conditions. For example, when strategies such as multiple/late fuel injections are applied to overcome cold-start instability due to use of low vaporization bio-based fuels such as ethanol, FiO rate is expected to be very high; the improved T-adaptive FiO diagnostic is hence relevant for engine- and fuel-system calibration and optimization. The diagnostic could also provide validation data for flow-field and spray interaction CFD models, further broadening the diagnostic’s utility for advancing engine technology and efficiency.

Neupane, Sneha↗

Relationship between serum trimethylamine N-oxide and exposure to dioxin-like pollutants

Highlights: • TMAO has been linked to cardiovascular disease risk in human studies and animal models. • TMAO was positively associated with 22 indexes of dioxin-like pollutant exposures in ACHS-II. • Associations with TMAO were significant among females (except at high BMIs) but not among males. • The dioxin TEQ: TMAO association was unaltered by adjustment for independent covariates of TMAO. Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) is a diet and gut microbiota-derived metabolite that has been linked to cardiovascular disease risk in human studies and animal models. TMAO levels show wide inter and intra individual variability in humans that can likely be accounted for by multiple factors including diet, the gut microbiota, levels of the TMAO generating liver enzyme Flavin-containing monooxygenase 3 (FMO3) and kidney function. We recently found that dioxin-like (DL) environmental pollutants increased FMO3 expression to elevate circulating diet-derived TMAO in mice, suggesting that exposure to this class of pollutants might also contribute to inter-individual variability in circulating TMAO levels in humans. To begin to explore this possibility we examined the relationship between body burden of DL pollutants (reported by serum lipid concentrations) and serum TMAO levels (n = 340) in the Anniston, AL cohort, which was highly exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). TMAO concentrations in archived serum samples from the Anniston Community Health Survey (ACHS-II) were measured, and associations of TMAO with 28 indices of pollutant body burden, including total dioxins toxic equivalent (TEQ), were quantified. Twenty-three (22 after adjustment for multiple comparisons) of the 28 indices were significantly positively associated with TMAO. Although the design of ACHS-II does not enable quantitative assessment of the contributions of previously known determinants of TMAO variability to this relationship, limited multivariate modeling revealed that total dioxins TEQ was significantly associated with TMAO among females (except at high BMIs) but not among males. Our results from this cross-sectional study indicate that exposure to DL pollutants may contribute to elevated serum TMAO levels. Prospective longitudinal studies will be required to assess the joint relationship between DL pollutant exposures, other determinants of TMAO, and health outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discrete Graph Structure Learning for Forecasting Multiple Time Series

Time series forecasting is an extensively studied subject in statistics, economics, and computer science. Exploration of the correlation and causation among the variables in a multivariate time series shows promise in enhancing the performance of a time series model. When using deep neural networks as forecasting models, we hypothesize that exploiting the pairwise information among multiple (multivariate) time series also improves their forecast. If an explicit graph structure is known, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been demonstrated as powerful tools to exploit the structure. In this work, we propose learning the structure simultaneously with the GNN if the graph is unknown. We cast the problem as learning a probabilistic graph model through optimizing the mean performance over the graph distribution. The distribution is parameterized by a neural network so that discrete graphs can be sampled differentiably through reparameterization. Empirical evaluations show that our method is simpler, more efficient, and better performing than a recently proposed bilevel learning approach for graph structure learning, as well as a broad array of forecasting models, either deep or non-deep learning based, and graph or non-graph based.

Shang, Chao↗

Observation of four top quark production in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

The observation of the production of four top quarks in proton-proton collisions is reported, based on a data sample collected by the CMS experiment at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2016–2018 at the CERN LHC and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb − 1 . Events with two same-sign, three, or four charged leptons (electrons and muons) and additional jets are analyzed. Compared to previous results in these channels, updated identification techniques for charged leptons and jets originating from the hadronization of b quarks, as well as a revised multivariate analysis strategy to distinguish the signal process from the main backgrounds, lead to an improved expected signal significance of 4.9 standard deviations above the background-only hypothesis. Four top quark production is observed with a significance of 5.6 standard deviations, and its cross section is measured to be 17.7 − 3.5 + 3.7 (stat) − 1.9 + 2.3 (syst) fb , in agreement with the available standard model predictions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Whole plant traits of coastal dune vegetation and implications for interactions with dune dynamics

Abstract Coastal dunes are important protective features against sea level rise and coastal storms. Interactions between dune plant aboveground structures and sediment trapping that allow for dune building and maintenance are well established. More recently, studies documenting belowground biomass for promoting erosion resistance in dominant dune species have been conducted, yet a knowledge gap remains regarding species‐specific characterization of whole plants, specifically with respect to roots, rhizomes, and belowground stems. Our objective was to quantify above‐ and belowground traits of four dominant dune grasses to document the potential for species‐specific effects on dune growth, maintenance, and erosion resistance. We examined above‐ and belowground traits among four prominent dune grasses of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of North America: Ammophila breviligulata , Panicum amarum , Spartina patens , and Uniola paniculata . Whole plant samples of each species were collected from the foredune at the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center's Field Research Facility in Duck, North Carolina, USA, and quantified for several above‐ and belowground traits (e.g., stem height, rhizome number and length, root surface area by diameter class, root tensile strength, and mycorrhizal percent infection). Belowground factors known to impact important dune processes, such as rhizome length, mycorrhizal percent infection, and root traits, differed substantially among species. When visualized in multivariate space, all species significantly differed in suites of above‐ and belowground traits. When considering belowground only, Ammophila and Spartina were similar, despite differences in biomass allocation. Species separated along axes related to mycorrhizal association, biomass allocation, and root construction. The four co‐occurring dune grass species were dissimilar in suites of plant traits. Belowground trait differences were driven by those describing root construction, biomass allocation, and mycorrhizal infection. Dissimilarity in above‐ and belowground suites of traits may demonstrate different approaches for surviving the dune environment. Incorporating belowground traits into modeling will enhance predictions of dune response to climate change through interactions between vegetation and dune dynamics that facilitate coastal resistance and resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic simulation of predictive space–time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model outputs

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines multiple sources of past physical model outputs and measurements in order to produce a probabilistic wind speed forecast within the prediction window. We illustrate this strategy on wind speed forecasts during several months in 2012 for a region near the Great Lakes in the United States. The results show that the prediction is improved in the mean-squared sense relative to the numerical forecasts as well as in probabilistic scores. Moreover, the samples are shown to produce realistic wind scenarios based on sample spectra and space-time correlation structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗