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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The 6-minute walk test predicts mortality in a pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria-predominant bronchiectasis cohort

Background: Bronchiectasis is a chronic lung condition frequently associated with nontuberculous mycobacteria pulmonary (NTM) disease. Persons with these conditions are at increased risk of mortality. Patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments and the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) have been shown to predict mortality for several lung conditions, but these measures have not been fully evaluated for bronchiectasis and NTM. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adult patients enrolled in a natural history study of bronchiectasis at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Electronic medical records were queried for demographic, clinical, microbiologic, radiographic, and PRO instrument data: St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, and the Pulmonary Symptom Severity Score (PSSS). The study baseline date was defined as the patient’s first visit after January 1st, 2015 with a SGRQ or 6MWT completed. Follow-up was defined as the interval between the study baseline visit and date of death or December 31st, 2019. Sex-stratified Cox proportional-hazards regression was conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Separate models were run for each PRO and 6MWT measure, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), fibrocavitary disease status, and M. abscessus infection. Results: In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models, the PSSS-severity (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04–1.59), the 6MWT total distance walked (aHR 0.938, 95% CI 0.896–0.981) and distance saturation product (aHR 0.930, 95% CI 0.887–0.974) independently predicted mortality. In addition, BMI was significantly predictive of mortality in all models. Conclusions: The 6MWT and a PRO instrument capturing symptom severity are independently predictive of mortality in our cohort of bronchiectasis patients.

6-minute walk test↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian nonparametric analysis for zero-inflated multivariate count data with application to microbiome study

High-throughput sequencing technology has enabled researchers to profile microbial communities from a variety of environments, but analysis of multivariate taxon count data remains challenging. Here, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model with zero inflation to analyse multivariate count data from microbiome studies. A BNP approach flexibly models microbial associations with covariates, such as environmental factors and clinical characteristics. The model produces estimates for probability distributions which relate microbial diversity and differential abundance to covariates, and facilitates community comparisons beyond those provided by simple statistical tests. We compare the model to simpler models and popular alternatives in simulation studies, showing, in addition to these additional community-level insights, it yields superior parameter estimates and model fit in various settings. The model's utility is demonstrated by applying it to a chronic wound microbiome data set and a Human Microbiome Project data set, where it is used to compare microbial communities present in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-series forecasting using manifold learning, radial basis function interpolation, and geometric harmonics

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on nonlinear manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series, relaxing the “curse of dimensionality” related to the training phase of surrogate/machine learning models. At the first step, we embed the high-dimensional time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using nonlinear manifold learning (local linear embedding and parsimonious diffusion maps). Then, we construct reduced-order surrogate models on the manifold (here, for our illustrations, we used multivariate autoregressive and Gaussian process regression models) to forecast the embedded dynamics. Finally, we solve the pre-image problem, thus lifting the embedded time series back to the original high-dimensional space using radial basis function interpolation and geometric harmonics. The proposed numerical data-driven scheme can also be applied as a reduced-order model procedure for the numerical solution/propagation of the (transient) dynamics of partial differential equations (PDEs). In conclusion, we assess the performance of the proposed scheme via three different families of problems: (a) the forecasting of synthetic time series generated by three simplistic linear and weakly nonlinear stochastic models resembling electroencephalography signals, (b) the prediction/propagation of the solution profiles of a linear parabolic PDE and the Brusselator model (a set of two nonlinear parabolic PDEs), and (c) the forecasting of a real-world data set containing daily time series of ten key foreign exchange rates spanning the time period 3 September 2001–29 October 2020.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prognostic importance of the preoperative New‐Naples prognostic score for patients with gastric cancer

Abstract Background The wide applicability of the Naples prognostic score (NPS) is still worthy of further study in gastric cancer (GC). This study aimed to construct a New‐NPS based on the differences in immunity and nutrition in patients with upper and lower gastrointestinal tumors to help obtain an individualized prediction of prognosis. Methods This study retrospectively analyzed patients who underwent radical gastrectomy from April 2014 to September 2016. The cutoff values of the preoperative neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte‐to‐monocyte ratio (LMR), serum albumin (Alb), and total cholesterol (TC) were calculated by ROC curve analysis. ROC and t‐ROC were used to evaluate the accuracy of the prognostic markers. The Kaplan–Meier method and log‐rank test were used to analyze the overall survival probability. Univariate and multivariate analyses based on Cox risk regression were used to show the independent predictors. The nomogram was made by R studio. The predictive accuracy of nomogram was assessed using a calibration plot, concordance index (C‐index), and decision curve. Results A total of 737 patients were included in training cohort, 411 patients were included in validation cohort. ROC showed that the New‐NPS was more suitable for predicting the prognosis of GC patients. NPS = 2 indicated a poor prognosis. Multivariate analysis showed that CEA ( P = 0.026), Borrmann type ( P = 0.001), pTNM ( P < 0.001), New‐NPS ( P < 0.001), and nerve infiltration ( P = 0.035) were independent risk factors for prognosis. Conclusion The New‐NPS based on the cutoff values of NLR, LMR, Alb, and TC is not only suitable for predicting prognosis but can also be combined with clinicopathological characteristics to construct a nomogram model for GC patients.

Wang, Hao↗
DOE OSTI2023

Practical Guide to Chemometric Analysis of Optical Spectroscopic Data

The methodology and mathematical treatment of several classic multivariate methods for the analysis of spectroscopic data is demonstrated in a straightforward way that can be used as a basis for teaching an undergraduate introductory course on chemometric analysis. The multivariate techniques of classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares (PLS), as well as the univariate Beer’s law method have been described and compared, building students’ understanding by starting with the univariate method and progressing step by step into the multivariate methods. Equations for the production of regression vectors from training set spectral data is described and their use demonstrated for the prediction of constituent concentrations on a separate validation set of spectra. Extreme care is taken to ensure consistency in variable formatting of data matrices. This provides a key foundation to understanding how spectral data are manipulated using these different mathematical approaches for building quantitative regression models. Each method is applied to a real-world data set, and the results are discussed to show students the types of information that can be gleaned from each method. A training set comprised of 20 infrared absorbance spectra containing 3 constituents (benzene, polystyrene, and gasoline) of known composition are used to demonstrate the matrix operations for each regression method. A separate set of 12 real-world napalm samples (containing benzene, polystyrene and gasoline) are used as a validation set to demonstrate the ability to utilize the regression models on an unknown dataset. A toolbox (PNNL Chemometric Toolbox) written in MATLAB language is supplied in the Supplemental Information file and can be used as a companion for understanding the development and deployment of the chemometric algorithms described in this paper. The datasets of the infrared spectra are also supplied, allowing users to build and inspect the chemometric models on their own. Finally, the Toolbox includes scripts to assist users in loading their own datasets into MATLAB and performing CLS, PCR, and PLS on their data.

Upper-Division Undergraduate, Analytical Chemistry↗
NASA NTRS1998

Experiments to Determine Whether Recursive Partitioning (CART) or an Artificial Neural Network Overcomes Theoretical Limitations of Cox Proportional Hazards Regression

New computationally intensive tools for medical survival analyses include recursive partitioning (also called CART) and artificial neural networks. A challenge that remains is to better understand the behavior of these techniques in effort to know when they will be effective tools. Theoretically they may overcome limitations of the traditional multivariable survival technique, the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Experiments were designed to test whether the new tools would, in practice, overcome these limitations. Two datasets in which theory suggests CART and the neural network should outperform the Cox model were selected. The first was a published leukemia dataset manipulated to have a strong interaction that CART should detect. The second was a published cirrhosis dataset with pronounced nonlinear effects that a neural network should fit. Repeated sampling of 50 training and testing subsets was applied to each technique. The concordance index C was calculated as a measure of predictive accuracy by each technique on the testing dataset. In the interaction dataset, CART outperformed Cox (P less than 0.05) with a C improvement of 0.1 (95% Cl, 0.08 to 0.12). In the nonlinear dataset, the neural network outperformed the Cox model (P less than 0.05), but by a very slight amount (0.015). As predicted by theory, CART and the neural network were able to overcome limitations of the Cox model. Experiments like these are important to increase our understanding of when one of these new techniques will outperform the standard Cox model. Further research is necessary to predict which technique will do best a priori and to assess the magnitude of superiority.

Kattan, Michael W.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Chemical studies of H chondrites. 6: Antarctic/non-Antarctic compositional differences revisited

We report data for the trace elements Au, Co, Sb, Ga, Rb, Ag, Se, Cs, Te, Zn, Cd, Bi, T1, and In (ordered by putative volatility during nebular condensation and accretion) determined by radiochemical neutron activation analysis of 14 additional H5 and H6 chondrite falls. Data for the 10 most volatile elements (Rb to In) treated by the multivariate techniques of linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression in these and 44 other falls are compared with those of 59 H4-6 chondrites from Antarctica. Various populations are tested by the multivariate techniques, using the previously developed method of randomization-simulation to assess significance levels. An earlier conclusion, based on fewer examples, that H4-6 chondrite falls are compositionally distinguishable from the Antarctic suite is verified by the additional data. This distinctiveness is highly significant because of the presence of samples from Victoria Land in the Antarctic population, which differ compositionally from falls beyond any reasonable doubt. However, it cannot be proven unequivocally that falls and Antarctic samples from Queen Maud Land are compositionally distinguishable. Trivial causes (e.g., analyst bias, weathering) cannot explain the Victoria Land (Antarctic)/non-Antarctic compositional difference for paradigmatic H4-6 chondrites. This seems to reflect a time-dependent variation of near-Earth meteoroid source regions differing in average thermal history.

Wolf, Stephen F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

An Assessment of the Regional Distribution of the Oxygen-Isotope Ratio in Northeastern Canada

A compilation of mean values of the oxygen-isotope ratio relative to standard mean ocean Water for 22 sites representative of conditions in north-eastern Canada is complemented with data on mean annual surface temperature, latitude, surface elevation, and mean annual shortest distance to open ocean denoted by the 10% sea-ice concentration boundary. Stepwise regression analysis is used to develop a multivariate model suitable to infer the distribution of 6 1"0 in an area of complex topography and possibly mixed source of advected water vapor. The best model is produced by a run in the backward mode at the 95% confidence level in which only temperature, latitude and distance to the open ocean remain in the model (the correlation coefficient is 0.915, the adjusted coefficient of determination is 0.809, the root mean square residual is 1.62). This model is similar to the best 6180 predictive model derived elsewhere for Greenland, suggesting a common principal source of advected moisture.

Giovinetto, Mario B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Multivariate statistical analysis: Principles and applications to coorbital streams of meteorite falls

Multivariate statistical analysis techniques (linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression) can provide powerful discrimination tools which are generally unfamiliar to the planetary science community. Fall parameters were used to identify a group of 17 H chondrites (Cluster 1) that were part of a coorbital stream which intersected Earth's orbit in May, from 1855 - 1895, and can be distinguished from all other H chondrite falls. Using multivariate statistical techniques, it was demonstrated that a totally different criterion, labile trace element contents - hence thermal histories - or 13 Cluster 1 meteorites are distinguishable from those of 45 non-Cluster 1 H chondrites. Here, we focus upon the principles of multivariate statistical techniques and illustrate their application using non-meteoritic and meteoritic examples.

Wolf, S. F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Partial Least Squares, Experimental Design, and Near-Infrared Spectrophotometry for the Remote Quantification of Nitric Acid Concentration and Temperature

Near-infrared spectrophotometry and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were evaluated to create a pleasantly simple yet effective approach for measuring HNO3 concentration with varying temperature levels. A training set, which covered HNO3 concentrations (0.1–8 M) and temperature (10–40 °C), was selected using a D-optimal design to minimize the number of samples required in the calibration set for PLSR analysis. The top D-optimal-selected PLSR models had root mean squared error of prediction values of 1.4% for HNO 3 and 4.0% for temperature. The PLSR models built from spectra collected on static samples were validated against flow tests including HNO 3 concentration and temperature gradients to test abnormal conditions (e.g., bubbles) and the model performance between sample points in the factor space. Based on cross-validation and prediction modeling statistics, the designed near-infrared absorption approach can provide remote, quantitative analysis of HNO 3 concentration and temperature for production-oriented applications in facilities where laser safety challenges would inhibit the implementation of other optical techniques (e.g., Raman spectroscopy) and in which space, time, and/or resources are constrained. The experimental design approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the training set and maintained or improved PLSR model performance, which makes the described chemometric approach more amenable to nuclear field applications.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative data sets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student t process regression. We apply Student t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via colouring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upscaling Soil Organic Carbon Measurements at the Continental Scale Using Multivariate Clustering Analysis and Machine Learning

Abstract Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are essential for many environmental applications. However, significant inconsistencies exist in SOC stock estimates for the U.S. across current SOC maps. We propose a framework that combines unsupervised multivariate geographic clustering (MGC) and supervised Random Forests regression, improving SOC maps by capturing heterogeneous relationships with SOC drivers. We first used MGC to divide the U.S. into 20 SOC regions based on the similarity of covariates (soil biogeochemical, bioclimatic, biological, and physiographic variables). Subsequently, separate Random Forests models were trained for each SOC region, utilizing environmental covariates and SOC observations. Our estimated SOC stocks for the U.S. (52.6 ± 3.2 Pg for 0–30 cm and 108.3 ± 8.2 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) were within the range estimated by existing products like Harmonized World Soil Database, HWSD (46.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 90.7 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) and SoilGrids 2.0 (45.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 133.0 Pg for 0–100 cm depth). However, independent validation with soil profile data from the National Ecological Observatory Network showed that our approach ( R 2 = 0.51) outperformed the estimates obtained from Harmonized World Soil Database ( R 2 = 0.23) and SoilGrids 2.0 ( R 2 = 0.39) for the topsoil (0–30 cm). Uncertainty analysis (e.g., low representativeness and high coefficients of variation) identified regions requiring more measurements, such as Alaska and the deserts of the U.S. Southwest. Our approach effectively captures the heterogeneous relationships between widely available predictors and the current SOC baseline across regions, offering reliable SOC estimates at 1 km resolution for benchmarking Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Statistical Evaluation of Time Series Analysis Techniques

The performance of a modified version of NASA's multivariate spectrum analysis program is discussed. A multiple regression model was used to make the revisions. Performance improvements were documented and compared to the standard fast Fourier transform by Monte Carlo techniques.

Benignus, V. A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Partial Least Squares and Neural Networks for Quantitative Calibration of Laser-induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBs) of Geologic Samples

The ChemCam instrument [1] on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover will be used to obtain the chemical composition of surface targets within 7 m of the rover using Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS). ChemCam analyzes atomic emission spectra (240-800 nm) from a plasma created by a pulsed Nd:KGW 1067 nm laser. The LIBS spectra can be used in a semiquantitative way to rapidly classify targets (e.g., basalt, andesite, carbonate, sulfate, etc.) and in a quantitative way to estimate their major and minor element chemical compositions. Quantitative chemical analysis from LIBS spectra is complicated by a number of factors, including chemical matrix effects [2]. Recent work has shown promising results using multivariate techniques such as partial least squares (PLS) regression and artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict elemental abundances in samples [e.g. 2-6]. To develop, refine, and evaluate analysis schemes for LIBS spectra of geologic materials, we collected spectra of a diverse set of well-characterized natural geologic samples and are comparing the predictive abilities of PLS, cascade correlation ANN (CC-ANN) and multilayer perceptron ANN (MLP-ANN) analysis procedures.

Anderson, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Neural network uncertainty assessment using Bayesian statistics: a remote sensing application

Neural network (NN) techniques have proved successful for many regression problems, in particular for remote sensing; however, uncertainty estimates are rarely provided. In this article, a Bayesian technique to evaluate uncertainties of the NN parameters (i.e., synaptic weights) is first presented. In contrast to more traditional approaches based on point estimation of the NN weights, we assess uncertainties on such estimates to monitor the robustness of the NN model. These theoretical developments are illustrated by applying them to the problem of retrieving surface skin temperature, microwave surface emissivities, and integrated water vapor content from a combined analysis of satellite microwave and infrared observations over land. The weight uncertainty estimates are then used to compute analytically the uncertainties in the network outputs (i.e., error bars and correlation structure of these errors). Such quantities are very important for evaluating any application of an NN model. The uncertainties on the NN Jacobians are then considered in the third part of this article. Used for regression fitting, NN models can be used effectively to represent highly nonlinear, multivariate functions. In this situation, most emphasis is put on estimating the output errors, but almost no attention has been given to errors associated with the internal structure of the regression model. The complex structure of dependency inside the NN is the essence of the model, and assessing its quality, coherency, and physical character makes all the difference between a blackbox model with small output errors and a reliable, robust, and physically coherent model. Such dependency structures are described to the first order by the NN Jacobians: they indicate the sensitivity of one output with respect to the inputs of the model for given input data. We use a Monte Carlo integration procedure to estimate the robustness of the NN Jacobians. A regularization strategy based on principal component analysis is proposed to suppress the multicollinearities in order to make these Jacobians robust and physically meaningful.

Neural Networks (Computer)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative datasets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student-t process regression. We apply Student-t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via coloring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

mvBayesR

SAND2025-11559O The mvBayesR tool performs multivariate Bayesian analysis on generic data. It includes tools for regression modeling, diagnosis, basis decomposition, sensitivity analysis, and visualization. The tool compiles state-of-the-art methodology into one easy-to-use package. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, James [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
DOE OSTI2025

mvBayesPy

SAND2025-11476O The mvBayesPy tool is a Python package that performs multivariate Bayesian analysis on generic data. It includes tools for regression modeling, diagnosis, basis decomposition, sensitivity analysis and visualization. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Tucker, James [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗