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At least 181 records · Page 10

Performance evaluation of fault-tolerant systems with application to the IUS

A new method for quantitatively evaluating the performance of fault-tolerant systems is developed and applied to an example. The method assumes that the random failure and diagnostic decision behavior of the system can be modeled by a finite state Markov process. A performance value must be assigned to each of the states of the model. The method then generates the moments of the probability mass function of the cumulative performance and uses these to generate a maximum entropy approximation to the performance PMF. Some computational considerations are discussed. The method is applied to a typical mission for the Inertial Upper Stage to examine the attitude accuracy performance of the inertial system.

Missana, J.-O.↗

Assurance Equations: A Cost and Criticality Model for Optimizing Quality Assurance Surveillance

The cost of quality vs cost of failure correction has been a long-running topic of discussion within the Aerospace community. It leads directly to concepts of “risk tolerance”, and risk-based decision-making. It would be valuable if there was a way to compute the optimal investment in customer-executed quality assurance activities using defect significance with respect to performance objectives, the activities’ defect detection effectiveness, and the cost-penalty for late discovery of impactful defects. This optimization is particularly of interest to projects whose budget constraints significantly limit their risk management options.The cost to fix defects (i.e., failure correction) escalates as the project matures. There have been studies attempting to determine the relative cost of fixing defects discovered during various phases of a project life cycle with important implications, all of which suggest growth factors are large. The commonly referred to 1:10:100 rule represents a cost multiplier for repair/rework across the Design to Fab to Test hardware development phases. Cost premiums for QA activities also accumulate when they are treated as mandatory (due to schedule drag) or are performed later than their assigned phase.This paper describes the modeling of development phase -dependencies in the conduct of typical customer-executed quality assurance activities. Our initial modeling encompasses:• Distinct phases of the production lifecycle• Multiple kinds of Defects, each with some a-priori likelihood of being present• Each defect’s impact on performance Objectives for a type of hardware• The cost and efficacy of assurance techniques at detecting such Defects• The costs of fixing those Defects detected in a given phase of the production lifecycleThe model captures assurance activities’ abilities to Detect defects. Upon detection it is assumed that the Defect is immediately fixed. Defects that “escape” detection by some activity may thereafter be detected by a later activity, but by then the cost of fixing the Defect may have escalated. Defects are related to the performance Objectives they would detract from, were those Defects to remain present in the operating system.We have constructed and are exploring, a model that relates the importance of hardware system elements to mission objectives, the impact of types of Defects on those hardware types, the cost of customer-executed assurance activities (i.e., supplier controls) and their effectiveness towards reducing an impactful quality escape, and the cost of Defect correction across production phase. We describe the approach taken to select the key model aspects, why they are relevant to our NASA mission, and our efforts to populate it with relevant and contemporary data. We use a notional example to illustrate model design and function.

Plante, Jeannette↗

Gaussian Process Classification for Galaxy Blend Identification in LSST

Abstract A significant fraction of observed galaxies in the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will overlap at least one other galaxy along the same line of sight, in a so-called “blend.” The current standard method of assessing blend likelihood in LSST images relies on counting up the number of intensity peaks in the smoothed image of a blend candidate, but the reliability of this procedure has not yet been comprehensively studied. Here we construct a realistic distribution of blended and unblended galaxies through high-fidelity simulations of LSST-like images, and from this we examine the blend classification accuracy of the standard peak-finding method. Furthermore, we develop a novel Gaussian process blend classifier model, and show that this classifier is competitive with both the peak finding method as well as with a convolutional neural network model. Finally, whereas the peak-finding method does not naturally assign probabilities to its classification estimates, the Gaussian process model does, and we show that the Gaussian process classification probabilities are generally reliable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Extracting scene feature vectors through modeling, volume 3

The remote estimation of the leaf area index of winter wheat at Finney County, Kansas was studied. The procedure developed consists of three activities: (1) field measurements; (2) model simulations; and (3) response classifications. The first activity is designed to identify model input parameters and develop a model evaluation data set. A stochastic plant canopy reflectance model is employed to simulate reflectance in the LANDSAT bands as a function of leaf area index for two phenological stages. An atmospheric model is used to translate these surface reflectances into simulated satellite radiance. A divergence classifier determines the relative similarity between model derived spectral responses and those of areas with unknown leaf area index. The unknown areas are assigned the index associated with the closest model response. This research demonstrated that the SRVC canopy reflectance model is appropriate for wheat scenes and that broad categories of leaf area index can be inferred from the procedure developed.

Berry, J. K.↗

A 1D–0D–3D coupled model for simulating blood flow and transport processes in breast tissue

In this work, we present mixed dimensional models for simulating blood flow and transport processes in breast tissue and the vascular tree supplying it. These processes are considered, to start from the aortic inlet to the capillaries and tissue of the breast. Large variations in biophysical properties and flow conditions exist in this system necessitating the use of different flow models for different geometries and flow regimes. In total, we consider four different model types. First, a system of 1D nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) is considered to simulate blood flow in larger arteries with highly elastic vessel walls. Second, we assign 1D linearized hyperbolic PDEs to model the smaller arteries with stiffer vessel walls. The third model type consists of ODE systems (0D models). It is used to model the arterioles and peripheral circulation. Finally, homogenized 3D porous media models are considered to simulate flow and transport in capillaries and tissue within the breast volume. Sink terms are used to account for the influence of the venous and lymphatic systems. Combining the four model types, we obtain two different 1D–0D–3D coupled models for simulating blood flow and transport processes: The first model results in a fully coupled 1D–0D–3D model covering the complete path from the aorta to the breast combining a generic arterial network with a patient specific breast network and geometry. The second model is a reduced one based on the separation of the generic and patient specific parts. The information from a calibrated fully coupled model is used as inflow condition for the patient specific sub-model allowing a significant computational cost reduction. Several numerical experiments are conducted to calibrate the generic model parameters and to demonstrate realistic flow simulations compared to existing data on blood flow in the human breast and vascular system. Moreover, we use two different breast vasculature and tissue data sets to illustrate the robustness of our reduced sub-model approach.

multiscale blood flow models↗

ReaLigands: A Ligand Library Cultivated from Experiment and Intended for Molecular Computational Catalyst Design

Computational catalyst design requires identification of a metal and ligand that together result in the desired reaction reactivity and/or selectivity. A major impediment to translating computational designs to experiments is evaluating ligands that are likely to be synthesized. Here we provide a solution to this impediment with our ReaLigands library that contains >30,000 monodentate, bidentate (didentate), tridentate, and larger ligands cultivated by dismantling experimentally reported crystal structures. Individual ligands from mononuclear crystal structures were identified using a modified depth-first search algorithm and charge was assigned using a machine learning model based on quantum-chemical calculated features. In the library ligands are sorted based on direct ligand-to-metal atomic connections and on denticity. Representative principal component analysis (PCA) and uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) analyses were used to analyze several tridentate ligand categories, which revealed both the diversity of ligands and connections between ligand categories. Furthermore, we also demonstrated the utility of this library by implementing it with our building and optimization tools, which resulted in the very rapid generation of barriers for 750 bidentate ligands for Rh-hydride ethylene migratory insertion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Helium droplet infrared spectroscopy of the butyl radicals

Butyl radicals (n-, s-, i-, and tert-butyl) are formed from the pyrolysis of stable precursors (1-pentyl nitrite, 2-methyl-1-butyl nitrite, isopentyl nitrite, and azo-tert-butane, respectively). The radicals are doped into a beam of liquid helium droplets and probed with infrared action spectroscopy from 2700 to 3125 cm -1 , allowing for a low temperature measurement of the CH stretching region. The presence of anharmonic resonance polyads in the 2800–3000 cm -1 region complicates its interpretation. To facilitate spectral assignment, the anharmonic resonances are modeled with two model Hamiltonian approaches that explicitly couple CH stretch fundamentals to HCH bend overtones and combinations: a VPT2+K normal mode model based on coupled-cluster with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations [CCSD(T)] quartic force fields and a semi-empirical local mode model. Both of these computational methods provide generally good agreement with the experimental spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Application of machine learning for the estimation of electron energy distribution from optical emission spectra

Abstract This paper discusses the use of probabilistic deep neural networks for the prediction of the electron energy probability function in low-temperature non-thermal plasmas. The neural networks are trained using optical emission spectroscopy and Langmuir probe measurements, with the goal of providing a reliable estimate of the electron energy probability function solely from optical emission data. The performance of both non-Bayesian and Bayesian networks is evaluated. It is found that Bayesian models are preferable as they assign a higher level of uncertainty to their prediction especially when the dataset used to train them is small. This work describes one of the many potential applications of machine learning in plasma science and technology.

Physics↗

Bayesian analysis of the Zn 70 ( d , He 3 ) Cu 69 transfer reaction

Transfer reactions provide information about the single-particle nature of nuclear levels. In particular, the differential cross sections from these measurements are sensitive to the angular momentum of the transferred particle and the spectroscopic factor of the populated level. However, the process of extracting these properties is subject to uncertainties, both from experimental and theoretical sources. By integrating the distorted wave Born approximation into a Bayesian model, we propagate these uncertainties through to the spectroscopic factors and orbital angular momentum values. We use previously reported data of the proton pickup reaction Zn 70 ( d , He 3 ) Cu 69 as an example. By accounting for uncertainties in the experimental data, optical model parameters, and reaction mechanism, we find that the extracted spectroscopic factors for low-lying states of 69 Cu are subject to large, asymmetric uncertainties ranging from 35 to 108%. Additionally, Bayesian model comparison is employed to assign probabilities to each of the allowed angular momentum transfers. This method confirms the assignments for many states, but suggests that the data for a state lying at 3.70 MeV are better characterized by an ℓ =3 transfer, rather than the previously reported ℓ =2 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Multiple chiral bands in $^{137}$Nd

Two new bands have been identified in 137 Nd from a high-statistics JUROGAM II gamma-ray spectroscopy experiment. Constrained density functional theory and particle rotor model calculations are used to assign configurations and investigate the band properties, which are well described and understood. It is demonstrated that these two new bands can be interpreted as chiral partners of previously known three-quasiparticle positive- and negative-parity bands. The newly observed chiral doublet bands in 137 Nd represent an important support to the existence of multiple chiral bands in nuclei. Overall, the present results constitute the missing stone in the series of Nd nuclei showing multiple chiral bands, which becomes the most extended sequence of odd-even and even-even nuclei presenting multiple chiral bands in the Segre chart.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Combining remotely sensed and other measurements for hydrologic areal averages

A method is described for combining measurements of hydrologic variables of various sampling geometries and measurement accuracies to produce an estimated mean areal value over a watershed and a measure of the accuracy of the mean areal value. The method provides a means to integrate measurements from conventional hydrological networks and remote sensing. The resulting areal averages can be used to enhance a wide variety of hydrological applications including basin modeling. The correlation area method assigns weights to each available measurement (point, line, or areal) based on the area of the basin most accurately represented by the measurement. The statistical characteristics of the accuracy of the various measurement technologies and of the random fields of the hydrologic variables used in the study (water equivalent of the snow cover and soil moisture) required to implement the method are discussed.

Johnson, E. R.↗

Raman structural studies of the nickel electrode

Raman spectroscopy is sensitive to empirically controlled nickel electrode structural variations, and has unique potential for structural characterization of these materials. How the structure relates to electrochemical properties is examined so that the latter can be more completely understood, controlled, and optimized. Electrodes were impregnated and cycled, and cyclic voltammetry is being used for electrochemical characterization. Structural variation was observed which has escaped detection using other methods. Structural changes are induced by: (1) cobalt doping, (2) the state of change or discharge, (3) the preparation conditions and type of buffer used, and (4) the formation process. Charged active mass has an NiOOH-type structure, agreeing with X-ray diffraction results. Discharged active mass, however, is not isostructural with beta-Ni(OH)2. Chemically prepared alpha phases are not isostructural either. A disordered structural model, containing point defects, is proposed for the cycled materials. This model explains K(+) incorporation. Band assignments were made and spectra interpreted for beta-Ni(OH)2, electrochemical NiOOH and chemically precipitated NiOOH.

Cornilsen, B. C.↗

Fault detection using a two-model test for changes in the parameters of an autoregressive time series

This article describes an investigation of a statistical hypothesis testing method for detecting changes in the characteristics of an observed time series. The work is motivated by the need for practical automated methods for on-line monitoring of Deep Space Network (DSN) equipment to detect failures and changes in behavior. In particular, on-line monitoring of the motor current in a DSN 34-m beam waveguide (BWG) antenna is used as an example. The algorithm is based on a measure of the information theoretic distance between two autoregressive models: one estimated with data from a dynamic reference window and one estimated with data from a sliding reference window. The Hinkley cumulative sum stopping rule is utilized to detect a change in the mean of this distance measure, corresponding to the detection of a change in the underlying process. The basic theory behind this two-model test is presented, and the problem of practical implementation is addressed, examining windowing methods, model estimation, and detection parameter assignment. Results from the five fault-transition simulations are presented to show the possible limitations of the detection method, and suggestions for future implementation are given.

Scholtz, P.↗

Quantification of Processing Effects on Filament Wound Pressure Vessels

A computational simulation procedure is described which is designed specifically for the modeling and analysis of filament wound pressure vessels. Cylindrical vessels with spherical or elliptical end caps can be generated automatically. End caps other than spherical or elliptical may be modeled by varying circular sections along the x-axis according to the C C! end cap shape. The finite element model generated is composed of plate type quadrilateral shell elements on the entire vessel surface. This computational procedure can also be sued to generate grid, connectivity and material cards (bulk data) for component parts of a larger model. These bulk data are assigned to a user designated file for finite element structural/stress analysis of composite pressure vessels. The procedure accommodates filament would pressure vessels of all types of shells-of-revolution. It has provisions to readily evaluate initial stresses due to pretension in the winding filaments and residual stresses due to cure temperature.

Aiello, Robert A.↗

Quantification of Processing Effects on Filament Wound Pressure Vessels

A computational simulation procedure is described which is designed specifically for the modeling and analysis of filament wound pressure vessels. Cylindrical vessels with spherical or elliptical end caps can be generated automatically. End caps other than spherical or elliptical may be modeled by varying circular sections along the x-axis according to the end cap shape. The finite element model generated is composed of plate type quadrilateral shell elements on the entire vessel surface. This computational procedure can also be used to generate grid, connectivity and material cards (bulk data) for component parts of a larger model. These bulk data are assigned to a user designated file for finite element structural/stress analysis of composite pressure vessels. The procedure accommodates filament wound pressure vessels of all types of shells-of -revolution. It has provisions to readily evaluate initial stresses due to pretension in the winding filaments and residual stresses due to cure temperature.

Aiello, Robert A.↗

New CERES Data Examined for Evidence of Tropical Iris Feedback

New data products are available from the CERES instrument, a part of the NASA Earth Observing System. The Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product combines radiative fluxes with extensive information on the cloud conditions in the footprint, which are retrieved using the co-orbiting imager instrument. These data have been analyzed to more accurately define the radiative properties for the various regions of the recently-proposed adaptive infrared Iris. A variety of ways of defining the cloudy moist region were examined. According to CERES, the net radiative flux for the cloudy moist region ranges between 28 and 54 W/m2 depending on the specific definition used. This is in contrast to the value of 123 W/m2 which was somewhat subjectively assigned by LCH. This simple model may miss many feedbacks in the climate system, but it should provide a rough range of the climate variations if the physics of the Iris is correct. There is some question whether the change in cloudy moist area with cloud-weighted SST actually represents a useful quantity, and whether extrapolating it from a regional variation to a global response to warmer climate is appropriate. Regardless, the current results show that the proposed Iris feedback is very much weaker when objectively-determined radiative properties are used in the model.

Chambers, Lin H.↗

Toward a Global Map of Raindrop Size Distributions: Rain-Type Classification and Its Implications for Validating Global Rainfall Products - Part 1

Variability in the global distribution of precipitation is recognized as a key element in assessing the impact of climate change for life on earth. The response of precipitation to climate forcings is, however, poorly understood because of discrepancies in the magnitude and sign of climatic trends in satellite-based rainfall estimates. Quantifying and ultimately removing these biases is critical for studying the response of the hydrologic cycle to climate change. In addition, estimates of random errors owing to variability in algorithm assumptions on local spatial and temporal scales are critical for establishing how strongly their products should be weighted in data assimilation or model validation applications and for assigning a level of confidence to climate trends diagnosed from the data. This paper explores the potential for refining assumed drop size distributions (DSDs) in global radar rainfall algorithms by establishing a link between satellite observables and information gleaned from regional validation experiments where polarimetric radar, Doppler radar, and disdrometer measurements can be used to infer raindrop size distributions. By virtue of the limited information available in the satellite retrieval framework, the current method deviates from approaches adopted in the ground-based radar community that attempt to relate microphysical processes and resultant DSDs to local meteorological conditions. Instead, the technique exploits the fact that different microphysical pathways for rainfall production are likely to lead to differences in both the DSD of the resulting raindrops and the three-dimensional structure of associated radar reflectivity profiles. Objective rain-type classification based on the complete three-dimensional structure of observed reflectivity profiles is found to partially mitigate random and systematic errors in DSDs implied by differential reflectivity measurements. In particular, it is shown that vertical and horizontal reflectivity structure obtained from spaceborne radar can be used to reproduce significant differences in Z(sub dr) between the easterly and westerly climate regimes observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) field experiment as well as the even larger differences between Amazonian rainfall and that observed in eastern Colorado. As such, the technique offers a potential methodology for placing locally observed DSD information into a global framework.

L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.↗

Bayesian Estimation of Precipitation from Satellite Passive Microwave Observations Using Combined Radar-Radiometer Retrievals

Precipitation estimation from satellite passive microwave radiometer observations is a problem that does not have a unique solution that is insensitive to errors in the input data. Traditionally, to make this problem well posed, a priori information derived from physical models or independent, high-quality observations is incorporated into the solution. In the present study, a database of precipitation profiles and associated brightness temperatures is constructed to serve as a priori information in a passive microwave radiometer algorithm. The precipitation profiles are derived from a Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) combined radar radiometer algorithm, and the brightness temperatures are TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) observed. Because the observed brightness temperatures are consistent with those derived from a radiative transfer model embedded in the combined algorithm, the precipitation brightness temperature database is considered to be physically consistent. The database examined here is derived from the analysis of a month-long record of TRMM data that yields more than a million profiles of precipitation and associated brightness temperatures. These profiles are clustered into a tractable number of classes based on the local sea surface temperature, a radiometer-based estimate of the echo-top height (the height beyond which the reflectivity drops below 17 dBZ), and brightness temperature principal components. For each class, the mean precipitation profile, brightness temperature principal components, and probability of occurrence are determined. The precipitation brightness temperature database supports a radiometer-only algorithm that incorporates a Bayesian estimation methodology. In the Bayesian framework, precipitation estimates are weighted averages of the mean precipitation values corresponding to the classes in the database, with the weights being determined according to the similarity between the observed brightness temperature principal components and the brightness temperature principal components of the classes. Because the classes are stratified by the sea surface temperature and the echo-top-height estimator, the number of classes that are considered for retrieval is significantly smaller than the total number of classes, making the algorithm computationally efficient. The radiometer-only algorithm is applied to TMI observations, and precipitation estimates are compared with combined TRMM precipitation radar (PR) TMI reference estimates. The TMI-only algorithm, supported by the empirically derived database, produces estimates that are more consistent with the reference values than the precipitation estimates from the version-6 TRMM facility TMI algorithm. Cloud-resolving model simulations are used to assign a latent heating profile to each precipitation profile in the empirically derived database, making it possible to estimate latent heating using the radiometer-only algorithm. Although the evaluation of latent heating estimates in this study is preliminary, because realistic conditional probability distribution functions are attached to latent heating structures in the algorithm s database, a generally positive impact on latent heating estimation from passive microwave observations is expected.

Grecu, Mircea↗