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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Improved time-delay lens modelling and H 0 inference with transient sources

ABSTRACT Strongly lensed explosive transients such as supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, fast radio bursts, and gravitational waves are very promising tools to determine the Hubble constant (H0) in the near future in addition to strongly lensed quasars. In this work, we show that the transient nature of the point source provides an advantage over quasars: The lensed host galaxy can be observed before or after the transient’s appearance. Therefore, the lens model can be derived from images free of contamination from bright point sources. We quantify this advantage by comparing the precision of a lens model obtained from the same lenses with and without point sources. Based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) observations with the same sets of lensing parameters, we simulate realistic mock data sets of 48 quasar lensing systems (i.e. adding AGN in the galaxy centre) and 48 galaxy–galaxy lensing systems (assuming the transient source is not visible but the time delay and image positions have been or will be measured). We then model the images and compare the inferences of the lens model parameters and H0. We find that the precision of the lens models (in terms of the deflector mass slope) is better by a factor of 4.1 for the sample without lensed point sources, resulting in an increase of H0 precision by a factor of 2.9. The opportunity to observe the lens systems without the transient point sources provides an additional advantage for time-delay cosmography over lensed quasars. It facilitates the determination of higher signal-to-noise stellar kinematics of the main deflector, and thus its mass density profile, which, in turn plays a key role in breaking the mass-sheet degeneracy and constraining H0.

Ding, Xuheng↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference of heterogeneous epidemic models: Application to COVID-19 spread accounting for long-term care facilities

Here we propose a high dimensional Bayesian inference framework for learning heterogeneous dynamics of a COVID-19 model, with a specific application to the dynamics and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside long-term care (LTC) facilities. We develop a heterogeneous compartmental model that accounts for the heterogeneity of the time-varying spread and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside LTC facilities, which is characterized by time-dependent stochastic processes and time-independent parameters in ~ 1500 dimensions after discretization. To infer these parameters, we use reported data on the number of confirmed, hospitalized, and deceased cases with suitable post-processing in both a deterministic inversion approach with appropriate regularization as a first step, followed by Bayesian inversion with proper prior distributions. To address the curse of dimensionality and the ill-posedness of the high-dimensional inference problem, we propose use of a dimension-independent projected Stein variational gradient descent method, and demonstrate the intrinsic low-dimensionality of the inverse problem. We present inference results with quantified uncertainties for both New Jersey and Texas, which experienced different epidemic phases and patterns. Moreover, we also present forecasting and validation results based on the empirical posterior samples of our inference for the future trajectory of COVID-19.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1994

Dynamical influences on the moment of inertia tensor from lateral viscosity variations inferred from seismic tomographic models

We have investigated the influences of lateral variations of viscosity on the moment of inertia tensor from viscous flows due to the density anomalies in the mantle inferred from seismic tomographic models. The scaling relations between the density and the seismic anomalies is taken as either a constant or a function increasing with depth in accord with the recent high-pressure experimental studies. The viscosity is taken as an exponential function of the 3D density anomaly. In models with an isoviscous background, the effects on the perturbed moment of inertia tensor from the lateral viscosity variations are smaller than those due to variations in the radial viscosity profiles. In mantle models with a background viscosity increasing with depth, the influences of the lateral viscosity variations are significant. The most striking feature in the latter case is that the two off-diagonal elements delta I(sub xz) and delta I(sub yz) in the inertia tensor exhibit greatest sensitivity to lateral variations of the viscosity. While the other elements of the inertia change by only about a few tens of percent in the range of lateral viscosity contrast considered (less than 300), delta I(sub xz) and delta I(sub yz) can vary up to 40 times even with a change in sign, depending on the radial viscosity stratification and the location of the strongest lateral variations. The increase in the velocity-density scaling relation with depth can reduce the influences of the lateral viscosity variations, but it does not change the overall sensitive nature of delta I(sub xz) and delta I(sub yz). This study demonstrates clearly that the lateral viscosity variations, especially in the upper mantle, must be considered in the determination of long-term polar wander, since the variations in the delta I(sub xz) and delta I(sub yz) terms are directly responsible for exciting rotational movements.

Zhang, Shuxia↗

NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

MCMC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operator inference with roll outs for learning reduced models from scarce and low-quality data

Data-driven modeling has become a key building block in computational science and engineering. However, data that are available in science and engineering are typically scarce, often polluted with noise and affected by measurement errors and other perturbations, which makes learning the dynamics of systems challenging. Here, in this work, we propose to combine data-driven modeling via operator inference with the dynamic training via roll outs of neural ordinary differential equations. Operator inference with roll outs inherits interpretability, scalability, and structure preservation of traditional operator inference while leveraging the dynamic training via roll outs over multiple time steps to increase stability and robustness for learning from low-quality and noisy data. Numerical experiments with data describing shallow water waves and surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics demonstrate that operator inference with roll outs provides predictive models from training trajectories even if data are sampled sparsely in time and polluted with noise of up to 10%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed regularization and structure preservation for learning stable reduced models from data with operator inference

Operator inference learns low-dimensional dynamical-system models with polynomial nonlinear terms from trajectories of high-dimensional physical systems (non-intrusive model reduction). Here, this work focuses on the large class of physical systems that can be well described by models with quadratic and cubic nonlinear terms and proposes a regularizer for operator inference that induces a stability bias onto learned models. The proposed regularizer is physics informed in the sense that it penalizes higher-order terms with large norms and so explicitly leverages the polynomial model form that is given by the underlying physics. This means that the proposed approach judiciously learns from data and physical insights combined, rather than from either data or physics alone. Additionally, a formulation of operator inference is proposed that enforces model constraints for preserving structure such as symmetry and definiteness in linear terms. Numerical results demonstrate that models learned with operator inference and the proposed regularizer and structure preservation are accurate and stable even in cases where using no regularization and Tikhonov regularization leads to models that are unstable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sparse Deep Neural Network Inference using different Programming Models

Sparse deep neural networks have gained increasing attention recently in achieving speedups on inference with reduced memory footprints. However, the real-world applications are little shown with specialized optimizations, yet a wide variety of DNN tasks remain dense without exploiting the advantages of sparsity in networks. Recent work presented by MIT/IEEE/Amazon GraphChallenge has demonstrated significant speedups and various techniques. Still, we find that there is limited investigation of the impact of various Python and C\slash C++ based programming models to explore new opportunities in general cases. In this work, we provide performance evaluation through different programming models using CuPy, cuSPARSE, and OpenMP to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of our sparse implementations on single-GPU and multiple GPUs of NVIDIA DGX-A100 40GB/80GB platforms.

machine learning, HPC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linear two-pool models are insufficient to infer soil organic matter decomposition temperature sensitivity from incubations

Abstract Terrestrial carbon (C)-climate feedbacks depend strongly on how soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition responds to temperature. This dependency is often represented in land models by the parameter Q 10 , which quantifies the relative increase of microbial soil respiration per 10 °C temperature increase. Many studies have conducted paired laboratory soil incubations and inferred “active” and “slow” pool Q 10 values by fitting linear two-pool models to measured respiration time series. Using a recently published incubation study (Qin et al. in Sci Adv 5(7):eaau1218, 2019) as an example, here we first show that the very high parametric equifinality of the linear two-pool models may render such incubation-based Q 10 estimates unreliable. In particular, we show that, accompanied by the uncertain initial active pool size, the slow pool Q 10 can span a very wide range, including values as high as 100, although all parameter combinations are producing almost equally good model fit with respect to the observations. This result is robust whether or not interactions between the active and slow pools are considered (typically these interactions are not considered when interpreting incubation data, but are part of the predictive soil carbon models). This very large parametric equifinality in the context of interpreting incubation data is consistent with the poor temporal extrapolation capability of linear multi-pool models identified in recent studies. Next, using a microbe-explicit SOM model (RESOM), we show that the inferred two pools and their associated parameters (e.g., Q 10 ) could be artificial constructs and are therefore unreliable concepts for integration into predictive models. We finally discuss uncertainties in applying linear two-pool (or more generally multiple-pool) models to estimate SOM decomposition parameters such as temperature sensitivities from laboratory incubations. We also propose new observations and model structures that could enable better process understanding and more robust predictive capabilities of soil carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1991

Mantle viscosity - A comparison of models from postglacial rebound and from the geoid, plate driving forces, and advected heat flux

Models of the radial variation of effective viscosity inferred from the earth's response to surface loads associated with Pleistocene deglaciation are compared to structures inferred from models of geodynamic phenomena associated with convection: the geoid, plate-driving forces, and advected heat flux. While observations of the earth's response to surface loads do not have sufficient resolution to justify more than two viscous layers, adequately matching the observed long-wavelength geoid anomalies associated with density contrasts in the lower mantle (inferred from seismic tomography) and in the upper mantle (inferred from a model of subducted slabs) requires more structure. It is possible to explain the geoid, observed plate velocities, the advected heat flux in the lower mantle, and relative sea-level variations in oceanic regions, all with a mantle with a high-viscosity/elastic lid, an asthenospheric channel of 2 x 10 exp 19 Pa s from 100 to 400-km depth, a 6 x 10 exp 20 Pa s transition zone, and a lower mantle of 6 x 10 exp 21 Pa s. The uplift history of Australia, Fennoscandia, and Laurentia can be explained with an asthenospheric viscosity less than a factor of 10 higher. Lateral variations in lower mantle viscosity are not required. Transient creep appears to be unimportant for the recent response-to-surface loads from Pleistocene deglaciation.

Hager, Bradford H.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reno

Reno is a tool for creating, visualizing, and analyzing system dynamics models in Python. It additionally has the ability to convert models to PyMC, allowing Bayesian inference on models with variables that include prior probability distributions.

Martindale, Nathan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven reduced-order models via regularised Operator Inference for a single-injector combustion process

Not Available

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1989

Hot oxygen geocorona as inferred from neutral exospheric models and mass spectrometer measurements

Summer hot oxygen densities of 10,000-30,000 per cubic cm at 1100 km (or 100,000-300,000 at 550 km) for low to moderate solar activities are inferred from differences between satellite drag and mass-spectrometer-based models. At high solar activities, densities at 925 km from 100,000-400,000 (or 5 x 10 to the 5th to 2 x 10 to the 6th at 550 km) are inferred from a limited number of Dynamics Explorer mass spectrometer measurements. The densities are of the same order as those reported previously from ground-based optical measurements. It is pointed out that a detailed theoretical calculation of the hot oxygen distribution consistent with the cool populations in mass-spectrometer-based models would provide the basis for a more complete interpretation of mass spectrometer data and of high-altitude differences between drag-based and mass-spectrometer-based models. It is concluded that hot oxygen could be providing the major contribution to satellite drag in the summer lower exosphere during low solar activity.

Hedin, A. E.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Inferring performance metrics for laser direct drive experiments on OMEGA

Quantifying performance improvements on the OMEGA laser facility requires robust inference of established no-alpha performance metrics, which requires, at minimum, a model to infer the shocked fuel mass and pressure of the confined fusion plasma. In this work, we describe the methodology used to infer performance metrics on OMEGA and present the current state-of-the art model used to infer these metrics from OMEGA experiments. In particular, since neutron images of cryogenic implosions are not available on OMEGA at present, we present how x-ray sizes are determined on OMEGA using a Gaussian Process regression model and how the neutron production region's size is inferred from them. As a result, we end by benchmarking the model using synthetic data and 1-D LILAC simulations and test its experimental self-consistency across available x-ray diagnostic channels.

Gopalaswamy, V. [Laboratory for Laser Energetics, ↗

NASA NTRS1981

The asymmetric 4.8 hour X-ray modulation of Cygnus X-3 - Model light curves and inferred orbital parameters

The 4.8 hour X-ray light curve of Cygnus X-3 is quantitatively described by several proposed models under the assumption that the binary orbit of Cyg X-3 is elliptic. The cocoon model implies an apparent size for the X-ray star's companion, which is larger than that of its critical lobe, and it is suggested that the emission of a dense stellar wind by the companion could lead to such a situation. It is shown that a helium star, with or without a hydrogen-rich envelope, seems to be the most likely Cyg X-3 companion, and that some of the observed variations in the 4.8 hour period can be accounted for by the apparent period variations due to apsidal motion.

Ghosh, P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-Based Inference for Neutrino Interaction Model Parameter Tuning

High-energy physics experiments studying neutrinos rely heavily on simulations of their interactions with atomic nuclei. Limitations in the theoretical understanding of these interactions typically necessitate ad hoc tuning of simulation model parameters to data. Traditional tuning methods for neutrino experiments have largely relied on simple algorithms for numerical optimization. While adequate for the modest goals of initial efforts, the complexity of future neutrino tuning campaigns is expected to increase substantially, and new approaches will be needed to make progress. In this paper, we examine the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) to the neutrino interaction model tuning for the first time. Using a previous tuning study performed by the MicroBooNE experiment as a test case, we find that our SBI algorithm can correctly infer the tuned parameter values when confronted with a mock data set generated according to the MicroBooNE procedure. This initial proof-of-principle illustrates a promising new technique for next-generation simulation tuning campaigns for the neutrino experimental community.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla Maria [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-based inference for neutrino interaction model parameter tuning

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

DOE OSTI2025

LLM-Inference-Bench: Inference Benchmarking of Large Language Models on AI Accelerators

Large Language Models (LLMs) have propelled groundbreaking advancements across several domains and are commonly used for text generation applications. However, the computational demands of these complex models pose significant challenges, requiring efficient hardware acceleration. Benchmarking the performance of LLMs across diverse hardware platforms is crucial to understanding their scalability and throughput characteristics. We introduce LLM-Inference-Bench, a comprehensive benchmarking suite to evaluate the hardware inference performance of LLMs. We thoroughly analyze diverse hardware platforms, including GPUs from Nvidia and AMD and specialized AI accelerators, Intel Habana and SambaNova. Our evaluation includes several LLM inference frameworks and models from LLaMA, Mistral, and Qwen families with 7B and 70B parameters. Our benchmarking results reveal the strengths and limitations of various models, hardware platforms, and inference frameworks. We provide an interactive dashboard to help identify configurations for optimal performance for a given hardware platform.

Chitty-Venkata, Krishna Teja↗