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Evaluation of Low Cost, User-Centered Alerting Devices for the Mitigation of Flight Crew Spatial Disorientation

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting research into technologies which have the potential to reduce flight crew Spatial Disorientation (SD). While flight deck technology has advanced rapidly over the past fifty (50) years, the reported occurrences of flight crew SD have not decreased. The Cost-Effective Devices for Alerting Research (CEDAR) effort has focused on the identification and development of low cost, user-centered alerting solutions for the purpose of mitigating the occurrence of flight crew SD. This effort seeks to evaluate both existing technologies as well as new and emerging technologies which have a viable path to implementation in commercial aviation within the next five (5) years. This research is intended to develop a proof-of-concept for real-time SD mitigation which could eventually be utilized to improve safety in future air transport operations. NASA has partnered with the United States Naval Aeromedical Research Unit in Dayton, OH (NAMRU-D) to conduct flight crew SD research utilizing their Disorientation Research Device (DRD), dubbed “The Kraken”. This high-tech simulator features never-before-seen capabilities for side-by-side commercial aviation flight crew SD research, and is capable of re-creating the forces necessary to induce SD illusions in a safe and repeatable manner. Prototype SD mitigation solutions were incorporated into this simulator for scenario-based testing and evaluation using airline pilots within a contextually representative operational environment. SD mitigation technology prototypes designed to provide haptic feedback for both alerting and guidance, as well as innovative visual and aural alerting displays were evaluated. In December 2014, as a result of analyzing eighteen (18) loss-of-control events, the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) recommended research into flight deck technologies that have potential to mitigate the problems and contributing factors that lead to flight crew loss of airplane state awareness (ASA) and conditions likely to produce SD. The aviation community (government, industry and academia) have been charged with conducting research into cost-effective, user-centered flight deck alerting systems to alert flight crews; especially for the two conditions that produced SD (sub-threshold rolls and the somatogravic illusion). Somatogravic illusions are defined as illusions in which “there is a false perception of attitude on exposure to a force vector that differs in direction and/or magnitude from the normal gravitational force”. The sub-threshold roll illusion (aka the “leans” illusion) is a false sensation of roll attitude. A prolonged roll of less than two degrees becomes physiologically imperceptible to the pilot, and can lead to an incorrect perception of aircraft orientation. The sub-threshold roll illusion forms the entry point for the “graveyard spiral”, a maneuver in which the pilot’s corrective action (based on their false perception of aircraft orientation) causes the aircraft to spiral down into the ground. In both of these SD illusions, it is when the pilot attempts to correct the aircraft’s attitude (based on a false perception of its state) that problems arise, sometimes with lethal consequences.

Ronald J Daiker↗

Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by −2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and −4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

Climate↗

Chapter 10, Industry, in: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This chapter provides an update to developments on mitigation in the industry sector since the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (IPCC, 2007), but has much wider coverage. Industrial activities create all the physical products (e.g., cars, agricultural equipment, fertilizers, textiles, etc.) whose use delivers the final services that satisfy current human needs. Compared to the industry chapter in AR4, this chapter analyzes industrial activities over the whole supply chain, from extraction of primary materials (e.g.,ores) or recycling (of waste materials), through product manufacturing, to the demand for the products and their services. It includes a discussion of trends in activity and emissions, options for mitigation (technology, practices, and behavioural aspects), estimates of the mitigation potentials of some of these options and related costs, co-benefits, risks and barriers to their deployment, as well as industry - specific policy instruments. Findings of integrated models (long -term mitigation pathways) are also presented and discussed from the sector perspective. In addition, at the end of the chapter, the hierarchy in waste management and mitigation opportunities are synthesized,covering key waste -related issues that appear across all chapters in the Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report.

Fischedick, Manfred↗

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A multi-product landscape life-cycle assessment approach for evaluating local climate mitigation potential

Increasing demand for land-based climate mitigation requires more efficient management of agricultural landscapes for competing objectives. Here we develop methods for assessing trade-offs and synergies between intensification and carbon-sequestering conservation measures in annual crop production landscapes using the DayCent ecosystem model and the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) life-cycle assessment (LCA) model. We compiled county-scaled crop yields, fertilizer application rates, and tillage intensity for a corn–soybean farming case study landscape in the US state of Iowa. Using DayCent, we estimated a baseline soil organic carbon (SOC) accrual rate of 0.29 Mg C ha -1 y -1 driven by historical increases in crop productivity and reductions in tillage intensity. We then simulated the effects of management interventions targeted toward intensification (stover removal) and SOC sequestration (tillage intensity reduction and winter cover crop addition) individually and in combination. We propose a new multi-product landscape–LCA approach that analyzes marginal changes in corn grain, corn stover, and soybean production from the landscape in terms of their value for biofuel production (corn ethanol, soy biodiesel, and cellulosic ethanol from stover) and associated net displacement of conventional fossil-derived fuel use. This enables us to evaluate both intensification and sequestration effects in common CO 2 -equivalent mitigation units. We also used DayCent-simulated yields under the different land management scenarios to estimate farm-level costs and revenues. Our results show that intensification via collecting 30% of corn stover for biofuel production would increase the total greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of this landscape by 0.93 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 and provide $49 ha -1 y -1 of additional net revenue from biomass sales, but would reduce the baseline SOC accumulation rate by approximately 40%. In contrast, integrated approaches that include co-adoption of winter cover cropping and/or tillage intensity reduction would result in increased rates of SOC accumulation above the baseline, achieving simultaneous improvements in both farm profits and the overall GHG mitigation potential of the landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum error mitigation by hidden inverses protocol in superconducting quantum devices

We present a method to improve the convergence of variational algorithms based on hidden inverses (HIs) to mitigate coherent errors. In the context of error mitigation, this means replacing the hardware implementation of certain Hermitian gates with their inverses. Doing so results in noise cancellation and a more resilient quantum circuit. This approach improves performance in a variety of two-qubit error models where the noise operator also inverts with the gate inversion. We apply the mitigation scheme on superconducting quantum processors running the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm to find the H 2 ground-state energy. When implemented on superconducting hardware we find that the mitigation scheme effectively reduces the energy fluctuations in the parameter learning path in VQE, reducing the number of iterations for a converged value. We also provide a detailed numerical simulation of VQE performance under different noise models and explore how HIs and randomized compiling affect the underlying loss landscape of the learning problem. These simulations help explain our experimental hardware outcomes, helping to connect lower-level gate performance to application-specific behavior in contrast to metrics like fidelity which often do not provide an intuitive insight into observed high level performance.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Can we mitigate tropical cyclone formation using aerosols? A review of cyclogenesis and aerosol effects as a theoretical basis

Tropical cyclogenesis is a complex phenomenon, involving processes across multiple scales, with various theories proposed to explain its mechanisms. This paper provides an up-to-date summary of the established physical mechanisms and controlling factors of cyclogenesis. Understanding the nature of tropical cyclone formation is necessary to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and inform tropical cyclone mitigation strategies targeting early-stage intervention. Despite the disparities among theories, the critical role of persistent, intensified convection in tropical cyclone initiation is universally acknowledged. Therefore, our hypothesis is that interrupting convective development using aerosol injection is a potential strategy for mitigating tropical cyclone formation. Targetted injection of coarse and fine aerosols at the formation stage are two proposed potential approaches for mitigating tropical cyclones. These methods have completely different microphysical effects but each may ultimately interfere with the formation of the nascent cyclone. In conclusion, these potential interventions open new areas of further research, which are important and necessary to establish a solid scientific foundation for cyclogenesis mitigation.

Tropical cyclone formation↗

Compensatory mitigation and screening rules in environmental impact assessment

Concerns about the effectiveness of environmental impact assessment (EIA) have prompted proposals to improve its performance by limiting the discretion of decision-makers in screening. To investigate whether such proposals are likely to generate the desired results, we conducted an evaluation of the screening process under the Australian government's EIA regime from its introduction on 16 July 2000 to 30 June 2013 (study period). Almost 1 in 5 ‘particular manner’ decisions—a type of screening decision under the regime—were found to be unlawful. The extent of non-compliance is explained on the basis of convenience. The department was required to assess a large number of projects under tight timeframes and with limited resources, while being pressured by proponents to allow their projects to bypass EIA. These pressures resulted in the development of an informal custom whereby the formal compensatory mitigation restrictions were frequently ignored. The results highlight the relative significance of formal and informal institutions in EIA. Formal EIA rules typically provide a mere outline of the process. The informal institutions adopted by administrators often have a greater influence on how the process operates and what it achieves. - Highlights: • Concerns about the effectiveness of environmental impact assessment (EIA) have prompted proposals to improve its performance by limiting the discretion of decision-makers in screening. • To investigate whether such proposals are likely to generate the desired results, we conducted an evaluation of the Australian government's screening process, looking at the extent of compliance with a formal prohibition on the consideration of compensatory mitigation. • Almost 1 in 5 ‘particular manner’ decisions – a type of screening decision under the regime – were found to be unlawful (with a 95% confidence interval of between 1:4 and 1:7) because of a failure to abide by the compensatory mitigation restrictions. For urban development actions, the ratio between lawful and unlawful particular manner decisions was worse than 1:1. • The extent of non-compliance is explained on the basis of convenience. Budget and interest group pressures resulted in the development of an informal custom whereby the formal compensatory mitigation restrictions were ignored. • The results highlight the relative significance of formal and informal institutions in EIA. Formal EIA rules typically provide a mere outline of the process. The informal institutions adopted by administrators often have a greater influence on how the process operates and what it achieves.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The effectiveness of the mitigation hierarchy in environmental impact studies on marine ecosystems: A case study in France

While the development of maritime economic activity is increasingly encouraged, the consideration of its impacts constitutes a real challenge. The limitations of the implementation of the mitigation hierarchy have been widely discussed in scientific literature, yet data on marine biodiversity offset practices remains scarce. In this study, we investigated the use of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) as suitable instruments to achieve the No Net Loss objective. Drawing on a French approach developed for the initial assessment of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive, we examined the pressures and impacts related to various marine development projects and the effectiveness of the mitigation hierarchy in limiting these. An analysis of 55 recent French environmental impact studies showed that only 7% of the proposed measures had the aim of offsetting predicted degradation of sites of remarkable biodiversity. This can be partly explained by the lack of a clear definition of ‘significant impact’, which varies greatly depending on what is impacted, in turn allowing socio-economic activities to benefit more easily from offset. Furthermore, offsetting does not always constitute the final step of the mitigation hierarchy, highlighting the need to reinforce avoidance and reduction steps. Although we acknowledge the role of EIA in mitigating the negative impacts of development projects, synergies with other European marine environmental policies such as the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the Maritime Spatial Planning directive (MSP) should be developed in order to improve current practices. - Highlights: • Avoidance measures were not well represented in the Environmental Impact Assessments studied. • Few significant residual impacts and measures to offset these were described. • Common biodiversity did not benefit from offset measures. • The equivalency of proposed marine offsets is questionable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revealing mechanisms of processing defect mitigation in laser powder bed fusion via shaped beams using high-speed X-ray imaging

The laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process utilizing a focused Gaussian-shaped beam faces challenges, including pore formation, melt pool fluctuation and liquid spattering. While beam shaping technology has been explored as a potential approach for defect mitigation, the beam-matter interaction dynamics during melting with shaped beams remain unclear. Here, we report the direct observation of ring-shaped beam-matter interaction dynamics, including pore formation, melt pool fluctuation and liquid spattering, and unveil defect mitigation mechanisms in ring-shaped beam laser powder bed fusion process. Here, we find that, by spatially manipulating incident laser rays, the ring-shaped beam controls keyhole morphology, thereby managing the distribution of the reflected rays. This manipulation can effectively eliminate the formation of an unstable cavity at the keyhole tip, stabilizing the keyhole and mitigating keyhole pores. This enhanced keyhole stability effectively reduces the melt pool fluctuation, the formation of liquid breakup induced spatters and liquid droplet colliding induced large spatters in the laser powder bed fusion process. Additionally, the high-energy forefront of the ring-shaped beam effectively melts the powder bed, reducing agglomeration liquid spatter in the laser powder bed fusion process. The discovered defect mitigation mechanisms may guide the design of beam shaping strategies for simultaneously increasing the quality and productivity of metal additive manufacturing.

Beam shaping↗

Current Status of Targeted Radioprotection and Radiation Injury Mitigation and Treatment Agents: A Critical Review of the Literature

As more cancer patients survive their disease, concerns about radiation therapy–induced side effects have increased. The concept of radioprotection and radiation injury mitigation and treatment offers the possibility to enhance the therapeutic ratio of radiation therapy by limiting radiation therapy–induced normal tissue injury without compromising its antitumor effect. Advances in the understanding of the underlying mechanisms of radiation toxicity have stimulated radiation oncologists to target these pathways across different organ systems. These generalized radiation injury mechanisms include production of free radicals such as superoxides, activation of inflammatory pathways, and vascular endothelial dysfunction leading to tissue hypoxia. There is a significant body of literature evaluating the effectiveness of various treatments in preventing, mitigating, or treating radiation-induced normal tissue injury. Whereas some reviews have focused on a specific disease site or agent, this critical review focuses on a mechanistic classification of activity and assesses multiple agents across different disease sites. The classification of agents used herein further offers a useful framework to organize the multitude of treatments that have been studied. Many commonly available treatments have demonstrated benefit in prevention, mitigation, and/or treatment of radiation toxicity and warrant further investigation. These drug-based approaches to radioprotection and radiation injury mitigation and treatment represent an important method of making radiation therapy safer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Costs of mitigating the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States

Developers are required to mitigate the environmental impacts of hydropower projects in the United States (U.S.) but there is very little accessible information on the associated costs. This work compiles and analyses a dataset of environmental impacts mitigation costs for 182 hydropower projects based on documents obtained from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The analysis shows that environmental costs vary wildly across hydropower project classes and mitigation measures, even when normalized by plant capacity. Capital costs per kilowatt are generally higher for relicensed conventional hydropower plants, and lower for new and relicensed pumped storage hydropower plants, relative to other project classes. Smaller plants tend to spend a higher share of total project costs on mitigating environmental impacts than larger plants, and measures related to Aquatic Species, Project Operations, and Recreation have the highest capital cost per kilowatt. These findings mean that environmental costs could become a key decision variable for new hydropower developments in the U.S. due to the small scale of most of the remaining potential and the increasing stringency of environmental requirements. Therefore, technologies to reduce the environmental impacts and costs of hydropower would be important for future project developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimization of Structural Flood Mitigation Strategies

The dynamics of flooding are primarily influenced by the shape, height, and roughness (friction) of the underlying topography. For this reason, mechanisms to mitigate floods frequently employ structural measures that either modify topographic elevation, for example, through the placement of levees and sandbags, or increase roughness, for example, through revegetation projects. However, the configuration of these measures is typically decided in an ad hoc manner, limiting their overall effectiveness. The advent of high–performance surface–water modeling software and improvements in black–box optimization suggest that a more principled design methodology may be possible. This paper proposes a new computational approach to the problem of designing structural mitigation strategies under physical and budgetary constraints. It presents the development of a problem discretization amenable to simulation–based, derivative–free optimization. However, meta–heuristics alone are found to be insufficient for obtaining quality solutions in a reasonable amount of time. As a result, this paper proposes novel numerical and physics–based procedures to improve convergence to a high–quality mitigation. Furthermore the efficiency of the approach is demonstrated on hypothetical dam break scenarios of varying complexity under various mitigation budget constraints. In particular, experimental results show that, on average, the final proposed algorithm results in a 65% improvement in solution quality compared to a direct implementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being

Mitigation solutions are often evaluated in terms of costs and greenhouse gas reduction potentials, missing out on the consideration of direct effects on human well-being. Here, we systematically assess the mitigation potential of demand-side options categorized into avoid, shift and improve, and their human well-being links. Here we show that these options, bridging socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40–80% in end-use sectors. Based on expert judgement and an extensive literature database, we evaluate 306 combinations of well-being outcomes and demand-side options, finding largely beneficial effects in improvement in well-being (79% positive, 18% neutral and 3% negative), even though we find low confidence on the social dimensions of well-being. Implementing such nuanced solutions is based axiomatically on an understanding of malleable rather than fixed preferences, and procedurally on changing infrastructures and choice architectures. Results demonstrate the high mitigation potential of demand-side mitigation options that are synergistic with well-being.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust dynamic mitigation of instabilities

A dynamic mitigation mechanism for instability growth was proposed and discussed in the paper [S. Kawata, Phys. Plasmas 19, 024503 (2012)]. In the present paper, the robustness of the dynamic instability mitigation mechanism is discussed further. The results presented here show that the mechanism of the dynamic instability mitigation is rather robust against changes in the phase, the amplitude, and the wavelength of the wobbling perturbation applied. Generally, instability would emerge from the perturbation of the physical quantity. Normally, the perturbation phase is unknown so that the instability growth rate is discussed. However, if the perturbation phase is known, the instability growth can be controlled by a superposition of perturbations imposed actively: If the perturbation is induced by, for example, a driving beam axis oscillation or wobbling, the perturbation phase could be controlled, and the instability growth is mitigated by the superposition of the growing perturbations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Summary of the IAEA technical meeting on plasma disruptions and their mitigation

Here we summarize the contributions presented at the IAEA technical meeting on plasma disruptions and their mitigation, held virtually, 20–23 July 2020. The meeting brought together more than 120 experts from nuclear fusion research sites worldwide to discuss experimental, theoretical and modelling work in the field of plasma disruptions with special emphasis on developing a solid basis for possible disruption mitigation strategies in ITER and next generation fusion devices. The main topics of the meeting were: (i) disruption consequences, including electromagnetic loads, heat loads, and runaway electrons; (ii) disruption prediction and avoidance, including machine learning and physics-based approaches, and control aspects; and (iii) disruption mitigation, including shattered pellet injection, alternative techniques and general aspects of disruption mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantifying nitrogen loss hotspots and mitigation potential for individual fields in the US Corn Belt with a metamodeling approach

The high productivity in the US Corn Belt is largely enabled by the consumption of millions of tons of manufactured fertilizer. Excessive application of nitrogen (N) fertilizer has been pervasive in this region, and the unrecovered N eventually escaped from croplands in forms of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission and N leaching. Mitigating these negative impacts is hindered by a lack of practical information on where to focus and how much mitigation potential to expect. At a large scale, process-based crop models are the primary tools for predicting variables required by decision making, but their applications are prohibited by expensive computational and data storage costs. To overcome these challenges, we built a series of metamodels to learn the key mechanisms regarding the carbon (C) and N cycle from a well-validated process-based biogeochemical model, ecosys. The trained metamodel captures over 98% of the variability of the ecosys simulated outputs for 99 randomly selected counties in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. To identify hotspots with high mitigation potential, we introduce net societal benefit (NSB) as an indicator for synthesizing the loss in yield and social benefits through emissions and pollutants avoided. Our results show that reducing N fertilizer by 10% leads to 9.8% less N 2 O emissions and 9.6% less N leaching at the cost of 4.9% more SOC depletion and 0.6% yield reduction over the study region. The estimated total annual NSB is $\$395$ M (uncertainty ranges from $\$114$ M to $\$1271$ M), including $\$334$ from social benefits (uncertainty ranges from $\$46$ M to $\$1076$ M), $\$100$ M from saving fertilizer (uncertainty ranges from $\$13$ M to $\$455$ M), and –$\$40$ M due to yield changes (uncertainty ranges from –$\$261$ M to $\$69$ M). For the median scenario, we noted that 20% of the study area accounts for nearly 50% of the NSB, and thus represent hotspot locations for targeted mitigation. Although the uncertainty range suggests that developing such a high-resolution framework is not yet settled and the scenario based estimations are not appropriate to inform the management practices for individual farmers, our efforts shed light on the new generation of analytical tools for life cycle assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic characterization of frequency response of shock mitigation of a polymethylene diisocyanate (PMDI) based rigid polyurethane foam

Kolsky compression bar experiments were conducted to characterize the shock mitigation response of a polymethylene diisocyanate (PMDI) based rigid polyurethane foam, abbreviated as PMDI foam in this study. The Kolsky bar experimental data was analyzed in the frequency domain with respect to impact energy dissipation and acceleration attenuation to perform a shock mitigation assessment on the foam material. The PMDI foam material exhibits excellent performance in both energy dissipation and acceleration attenuation, particularly for the impact frequency content over 1.5 kHz. This frequency (1.5 kHz) was observed to be independent of specimen thickness and impact speed, which may represent the characteristic shock mitigation frequency of the PMDI foam material under investigation. The shock mitigation characteristics of the PMDI foam material were insignificantly influenced by the specimen thickness. As a result, impact speed did have some effect.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗