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At least 181 records · Page 10

Effective Visualization of Radar Data for Users Impacted by Color Vision Deficiency

Color vision deficiency (CVD) is a decreased ability to discern between particular colors. Eight percent of genetic males and half a percent of genetic females have some form of CVD, with many in the radar community falling into this group. When presenting data on a two-dimensional plane, it is common to use colors to represent values via a colormap. Colormap choice in the radar community is influenced by the ability to highlight scientifically interesting features in data, institutional choices, and domain dominance of legacy colormaps. The problem with these current colormaps is that many do not project well for those with CVD (i.e., green next to red). In working with the CVD community to address this problem, multiple colormaps for moments such as equivalent reflectivity factor and Doppler velocity were created for users with forms of CVD such as deuteranomaly, protanomaly, protanopia, and deuteranopia using Python tools such as colorspacious and viscm. We show how these colormaps can improve interpretability for four cases: a mesoscale convective system, a pyrocumulonimbus storm, a wintertime midlatitude cyclone, and widespread storms with a large bird migration. These new radar equivalent reflectivity factor, Doppler velocity, and polarization colormaps are designed to highlight rain, frozen precipitation, nonmeteorological targets, and velocity-based items, are perceptually uniform, and are visually friendly for those with CVD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How does vertical wind shear influence entrainment in squall lines?

The influence of vertical wind shear on updraft entrainment in squall lines is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, a suite of high-resolution idealized numerical model simulations of squall lines were run in various vertical wind shear (hereafter “shear”) environments to study the effects of shear on entrainment in deep convective updrafts. Low-level horizontal mass flux into the leading edge of the cold pool was strongest in the simulations with the strongest low-level shear. These simulations consequently displayed wider updrafts, less entrainment-driven dilution, and larger buoyancy than the simulations with comparatively weak low-level shear. An analysis of vertical accelerations along trajectories that passed through updrafts showed larger net accelerations from buoyancy in the simulations with stronger low-level shear, which demonstrates how less entrainment-driven dilution equated to stronger updrafts. Additionally, the effects of upper-level shear on entrainment and updraft vertical velocities were generally less pronounced than the effects of low-level shear. We argue that in addition to the outflow boundary-shear interactions and their effect on updraft tilt established by previous authors, decreased entrainment-driven dilution is yet another beneficial effect of strong low-level shear on squall line updraft intensity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Two-Day Westward-Propagating Inertio-Gravity Waves during GoAmazon

The dynamical and thermodynamical features of Amazonian 2-day westward-propagating inertia–gravity (WIG) waves are examined. On the basis of a linear regression analysis of satellite brightness temperature and data from the 2014–15 Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign, it is shown that Amazonian WIG waves exhibit structure and propagation characteristics consistent with the n = 1 WIG waves from shallow water theory. These WIG waves exhibit a pronounced seasonality, with peak activity occurring from March to May and a minimum occurring from June to September. Evidence is shown that mesoscale convective systems over the Amazon are frequently organized in 2-day WIG waves. Results suggest that many of the Amazonian WIG waves come from preexisting 2-day waves over the Atlantic, which slow down when coupled with the deeper, more intense convection over tropical South America. In contrast to WIG waves that occur over the ocean, Amazonian 2-day WIG waves exhibit a pronounced signature in surface temperature, moisture, and heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Indications of a Decrease in the Depth of Deep Convective Cores with Increasing Aerosol Concentration during the CACTI Campaign

Abstract An aerosol indirect effect on deep convective cores (DCCs), by which increasing aerosol concentration increases cloud-top height via enhanced latent heating and updraft velocity, has been proposed in many studies. However, the magnitude of this effect remains uncertain due to aerosol measurement limitations, modulation of the effect by meteorological conditions, and difficulties untangling meteorological and aerosol effects on DCCs. The Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) campaign in 2018–19 produced concentrated aerosol and cloud observations in a location with frequent DCCs, providing an opportunity to examine the proposed aerosol indirect effect on DCC depth in a rigorous and robust manner. For periods throughout the campaign with well-mixed boundary layers, we analyze relationships that exist between aerosol variables (condensation nuclei concentration > 10 nm, 0.4% cloud condensation nuclei concentration, 55–1000-nm aerosol concentration, and aerosol optical depth) and meteorological variables [level of neutral buoyancy (LNB), convective available potential energy, midlevel relative humidity, and deep-layer vertical wind shear] with the maximum radar-echo-top height and cloud-top temperature (CTT) of DCCs. Meteorological variables such as LNB and deep-layer shear are strongly correlated with DCC depth. LNB is also highly correlated with three of the aerosol variables. After accounting for meteorological correlations, increasing values of the aerosol variables [with the exception of one formulation of aerosol optical depth (AOD)] are generally correlated at a statistically significant level with a warmer CTT of DCCs. Therefore, for the study region and period considered, increasing aerosol concentration is mostly associated with a decrease in DCC depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Energy Budgets of Tropical Convective Discharge–Recharge Cycles

An energy budget combining atmospheric moist static energy (MSE) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) is used to examine the processes impacting day-to-day convective variability in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Feedbacks arising from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, surface fluxes, and radiation drive the cyclical amplification and decay of convection around suppressed and enhanced convective equilibrium states, referred to as shallow and deep convective discharge–recharge (D–R) cycles, respectively. The shallow convective D–R cycle is characterized by alternating enhancements of shallow cumulus and stratocumulus, often in the presence of extensive cirrus clouds. The deep convective D–R cycle is characterized by sequential increases in shallow cumulus, congestus, narrow deep precipitation, wide deep precipitation, a mix of detached anvil and altostratus and altocumulus, and once again shallow cumulus cloud types. Transitions from the shallow to deep D–R cycle are favored by a positive “column process” feedback, while discharge of convective instability and OHC by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contributes to transitions from the deep to shallow D–R cycle. Variability in the processes impacting MSE is comparable in magnitude to, but considerably more balanced than, variability in the processes impacting OHC. Variations in the quantity of atmosphere–ocean coupled static energy (MSE + OHC) result primarily from atmospheric and oceanic transport processes, but are mainly realized as changes in OHC. MCSs are unique in their ability to rapidly discharge both lower-tropospheric convective instability and OHC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Improved Convection Parameterization with Detailed Aerosol–Cloud Microphysics for a Global Model

Abstract A new microphysical treatment that includes aerosol–cloud interactions and secondary ice production (SIP) mechanisms is implemented in the convection scheme of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6). The approach is to embed a 1D Lagrangian parcel model in the bulk convective plume of the existing deep convection parameterization. Aerosol activation, growth processes including collision/coalescence, and three processes of SIP mechanisms, two of which are normally overlooked in atmospheric models, are represented in this embedded parcel model. These microphysical processes are treated with a hybrid bin/bulk scheme and a high spatial and temporal resolution for the integration of the embedded parcel in 1D, allowing vertical velocity to determine the microphysical evolution following the in-cloud motion during ascent. Simulations of an observed case (Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment) of a mesoscale convective system in Oklahoma, United States, with a single-column model (SCAM) version of CAM, are compared with aircraft in situ and ground-based observations of microphysical properties from the convection and precipitation. Results from the validation show the new microphysical scheme has a good representation of the ice initiation in the bulk convective plume, including the known and empirically quantified pathways of primary and secondary initiation, with benefits for the accuracy of properties of its supercooled cloud liquid. The sensitivity simulations and use of tagging tracers for the validated simulation confirm that the newly included SIP mechanisms are of paramount importance for convective microphysics and can be successfully treated in the global model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Diurnal and Semi-Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation in CMIP6 Models Using Satellite- and Ground-Based Observations

We report the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation simulated from CMIP6 models during 1996-2005 are evaluated globally between 60°S and 60°N, as well as at ten selected locations representing three categories of diurnal cycle of precipitation: (1) afternoon precipitation over land, (2) early morning precipitation over ocean, and (3) nocturnal precipitation over land. Three satellite-based and two ground-based rainfall products are used to evaluate the climate models. Globally, the ensemble mean of CMIP6 models shows a diurnal phase of 3 to 4 hours earlier over land and 1 to 2 hours earlier over ocean, when compared with the latest satellite products. These biases are in line with what were found in previous versions of climate models but reduced compared to the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Analysis at the selected locations complimented with in-situ measurements further reinforces these results. Several CMIP6 models have shown a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of precipitation compared to their CMIP5 counterparts, notably on delaying afternoon precipitation over land. This can be attributed to the use of more sophisticated convective parameterizations. Most models are still unable to capture the nocturnal peak associated with elevated convection and propagating mesoscale convective systems, with a few exceptions that allow convection to be initiated above the boundary layer to capture nocturnal elevated convection. We also quantify an encouraging consistency between the satellite- and ground-based precipitation measurements despite differing spatiotemporal resolutions and sampling periods, which provides confidence in using them to evaluate the diurnal and semi-diurnal cycle of precipitation in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Understanding the distinct impacts of MCS and non-MCS rainfall on the surface water balance in the central US using a numerical water-tagging technique

Warm-season rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central US is characterized by higher intensity and nocturnal timing compared to rainfall from non-MCS systems, suggesting their potentially different footprints on the land surface. To differentiate the impacts of MCS and non-MCS rainfall on the surface water balance, a water tracer tool embedded in the Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options (WT-Noah-MP) is used to numerically “tag” water from MCS and non-MCS rainfall separately during April to August (1997-2018) and track their transit in the terrestrial system. From the water-tagging results, over 50% of warm-season rainfall leaves the surface-subsurface system through evapotranspiration by the end of August, but non-MCS rainfall contributes a larger fraction. However, MCS rainfall plays a more important role in generating surface runoff. These differences are mostly attributed to the rainfall intensity differences. The higher intensity MCS rainfall tends to produce more surface runoff through infiltration excess flow and drives a deeper penetration of the rainwater into the soil. Over 70% of the top 10 percentile runoff is contributed by MCS rainfall, demonstrating its important contribution to local flooding. In contrast, lighter intensity non-MCS rainfall resides mostly in the top layer and contributes more to evapotranspiration through soil evaporation. Diurnal timing of rainfall has negligible effects on the flux partitioning for both MCS and non-MCS rainfall. Differences in soil moisture profiles for MCS and non-MCS rainfall and the resultant evapotranspiration suggest differences in their roles in soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks and ecohydrology.

Hu, Huancui↗

Columnar Vertical Profile (CVP) Methodology for Validating Polarimetric Radar Retrievals in Ice Using In Situ Aircraft Measurements

Abstract A novel way to process polarimetric radar data collected via plan position indicator (PPI) scans and display those data in a time–height format is introduced. The columnar vertical profile (CVP) methodology uses radar data collected via multiple elevation scans, limited to data within a set region in range and azimuth relative to the radar, to create vertical profiles of polarimetric radar data representative of that limited region in space. This technique is compared to others existing in the literature, and various applications are discussed. Polarimetric ice microphysical retrievals are performed on CVPs created within the stratiform rain region of two mesoscale convective systems sampled during two field campaigns, where CVPs follow the track of research aircraft. Aircraft in situ data are collocated to microphysical retrieval data, and the accuracy of these retrievals is tested against other retrieval techniques in the literature.

Engineering↗

Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Improved Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

In the context of forecasting societally impactful Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs), the potential added value of satellite soil moisture (SM) data assimilation (DA) is high. GPLLJs are both sensitive to regional soil moisture gradients and frequent drivers of severe weather, including mesoscale convective systems. An untested hypothesis is that SM DA is more effective in forecasts of weakly synoptically forced, or uncoupled GPLLJs, than in forecasts of cyclone-induced coupled GPLLJs. Using the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model, 75 GPLLJs are simulated at 9-km resolution both with and without NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive SM DA. Differences in modeled SM, surface sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes, 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m humidity (Q2), PBL height (PBLH), and 850-hPa wind speed (W850) are quantified for individual jets and jet-type event subsets over the south-central Great Plains, as well as separately for each GPLLJ sector (entrance, core, and exit). At the GPLLJ core, DA-related changes of up to 5.4 kg m–2 in SM can result in T2, Q2, LH, SH, PBLH, and W850 differences of 0.68°C, 0.71 g kg –2 , 59.9 W m –2 , 52.4 W m –2 , 240 m, and 4 m s –1 , respectively. W850 differences focus along the jet axis and tend to increase from south to north. Further, jet-type differences are most evident at the GPLLJ exit where DA increases and decreases W850 in uncoupled and coupled GPLLJs, respectively. Data assimilation marginally reduces negative wind speed bias for all jets, but the correction is greater for uncoupled GPLLJs, as hypothesized.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convection-Permitting Ensembles of an Isolated Mountain Thunderstorm during RELAMPAGO/CACTI

Abstract The north–south-oriented Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) ridge in central Argentina is noted for initiating thunderstorms that may grow into intense mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It also initiates more isolated, shorter-lived cells under weaker synoptic forcing. These cells are less impactful than MCSs but may be difficult to predict in convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to their strong sensitivities to subgrid and partially resolved processes. To study the mechanisms and predictability of such cells, convection-permitting ensemble simulations were conducted of an isolated, diurnally forced SDC thunderstorm during Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI)/Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO). The rich observational data facilitated detailed ensemble verification, where dry biases in the surface energy balance and soil moisture were identified. These biases promoted rapid removal of convective inhibition and an early onset of precipitating cells over the SDC that were shallower and weaker than the observed cell. Correction, and then overcorrection, of the soil moisture bias in two successive ensembles was required to rectify the surface energy balance and improve the representation of the SDC cell. Nevertheless, substantial ensemble variability in convective precipitation was found, with some members producing more widespread convection than observed and others producing no deep convection at all. This variability was largely explained by a combination of thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, dominated by a positive sensitivity of convective precipitation to preconvective moist instability over the ridge. Secondary sensitivities were found to low-level upward mass flux and midlevel cross-barrier winds, the latter of which caused gravity waves with elevated downdrafts that tended to suppress incipient clouds.

Lopez, Andres [Department of Atmospheric and Ocean↗

A protocol and analysis of year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models and beyond

We propose a protocol to evaluate and analyze year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). The proposed protocol complements an earlier 40-day simulation protocol under the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains) project to allow the analysis of the seasonal cycle and associated climatic relevant phenomena. This intercomparison aims to reveal how GSRMs, which can simulate mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the global domain, reproduce atmospheric large-scale structures related to convection beyond month-long simulations. The intercomparison for one-year simulations is conducted by either atmosphere-only models or atmosphere–ocean coupled models with atmospheric horizontal mesh sizes less than 5 km. We recommend the continuous four seasons from March 2020 to February 2021 as a target period for the intercomparison but with options for many groups to join more flexibly. The output variables are collected at 0.25° resolution, and archives of a small set of native grid variables are encouraged to analyze tropical cyclones and MCSs. Through the proposed global storm-resolving simulation, we will evaluate the climatological distributions of the atmospheric large-scale circulations, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoon, midlatitude jets, their time evolution, and the upscale impacts on them. We present sample analyses from a one-year simulation using the 3.5 km mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), revealing the realistic zonal contrast of tropical precipitation, no double ITCZ structure, the reasonable midlatitude jet position and intensity but a weak bias of storm track activities, and a warm bias over the Eurasia during boreal winter. We also clarify the cross-scale interaction, such as the effects of cold pools on mean precipitation over the Maritime Continent through the precipitation diurnal cycle and the effects of resolved gravity waves on midlatitude mean flows. The proposed one-year simulation protocol is referred to as the “Sendai Protocol.” This protocol is not unique or definite for evaluating GSRMs; we prospect a hierarchical set of experiments from short-term to multi-year simulations as GSRM intercomparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Use of Remote Sensing and In-Situ Observations to Develop and Evaluate Improved Representations of Convection and Clouds for the ACME Model

The overachieving goal of the whole CMDV-MCS project is to improve understanding of warm season continental convection and to develop treatments of convection and microphysics capable of representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) features in large-scale models. Our tasks for this project contributing to the overachieving goal include: (1) Improve the ice nucleation formulation for MG2 and P3 cloud microphysics schemes; (2) Improve the treatment of subgrid dynamics and thermodynamics driving the ice nucleation in E3SM; and (3) Test the performance of improved ice microphysics in E3SM with observation data. In this project, we have (1) Improved the ice nucleation parameterization for MG2 and P3 in E3SM by implementing two advanced empirical parameterizations with connection to aerosols. The two deterministic heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations (i.e., DeMott et al., 2015; Niemand et al., 2012) were merged with the MG2 and P3 cloud microphysics schemes in E3SM. Long-term simulations were conducted to examine the impacts of these new parameterizations on simulated cloud properties; (2) Improved the treatment of subgrid dynamics and thermodynamics driving the ice nucleation in E3SM. We evaluated the double Gaussian PDF of vertical velocity simulated by the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) and the sub-column vertical velocity sampled from the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) in E3SM. We introduced the vertical velocity variance induced by topographic gravity waves for ice nucleation and droplet activation; and (3) Tested the performance of improved ice microphysics in E3SM with observation data. We tested the new treatments of ice nucleation in the single column model (SCM) mode for the stratiform mixed-phase clouds observed during 9-10 October 2004 in the DOE ARM Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) and for the convective clouds observed on 20 May 2011 in the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). Modeled ice nucleating particles (INPs) concentrations were compared against observations collected around the globe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transforming ESM Physical Parameterization Development Using Machine Learning Trained on Global Cloud-Resolving Models and Process Observations

ESMs robustly predict that 21st century greenhouse warming will slowly increase global mean precipitation, rapidly increase extreme precipitation, and increase subtropical drought. ESMs agree less about precipitation trends and extremes over particular land regions critical to human societies, e. g. in semi-arid regions such as California or the Sahel, or in wetter climates prone to monsoonal rainfall (e. g. southeast Asia) or to tropical cyclones and flooding from mesoscale convective systems (e. g. the southeastern U.S.) Deep convective parameterizations and poor representation of orography and complex vegetated land surfaces contribute to this inter-model spread; clouds, aerosols and sea-surface temperature biases are also key. Reducing regional precipitation projection uncertainty has enormous planning value for water supplies, land use, wildfire, hydropower, flood control, etc. IPCC-class ESMs are making painfully slow progress on this.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE Early Career Award # DE-SC0012152: Understanding the Roles of Cloud Microphysics and Land Surface Coupling Feedbacks in Multi-Scale Predictions of Central US Summer Hydroclimate (Final Report)

This summarizes technical highlights from the DOE Early Career Project entitled “Understanding the Roles of Cloud Microphysics and Land Surface Coupling Feedbacks in Multi-Scale Predictions of Central US Summer Hydroclimate” led by PI Mike Pritchard at the University of California. The project’s original aims were to investigate trade-offs of cloud superparameterization such as the effects of microphysical assumptions on mesoscale convective systems (Section I) and the representation of land-atmosphere coupling under explicit convection (Section II). Under the same broader theme of water cycle dynamics, superparameterization, and land interaction, the project evolved to further investigate the climate dynamics of irrigation, vegetation and streamflow (Section III), the dynamics of the Madden- Julian Oscillation (Section IV), as well as the use of modern machine learning to replace traditional sub grid approaches for climate simulation (Section V). Twenty peer-reviewed journal publications were produced as a result of this project (Section VI).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Thunderstorms With the Greatest Lightning Densities on Earth

The most intense thunderstorms on Earth were surveyed using the comprehensive meteorological instrumentation on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Expansive land-based Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) were consistently identified among the Earth's most intense thunderstorms, with their organization into many convective cells spanning a large areal extent permitting exceptional overall flash rates for these storms. In this study, we identify a new class of extreme thunderstorm. Lightning-dense thunderstorms are relatively compact convective storms whose concentrated lightning activity hinders our ability to accurately measure their flash rates. The top storms have a flash rate of one flash spanning many seconds, as there is insufficient separation to distinguish one flash from another. While any particularly active convective cell could be capable of producing high lightning densities, we find that thunderstorms with the greatest lightning densities on Earth are found in maritime thunderstorms that have not been appreciated in prior work due to the inaccurate flash rate measurements. These storms that are mostly found throughout the Gulf of Mexico and east of South Africa (among other coastal and oceanic regions) have measured TRMM proxies for convective intensity that rival the top MCS thunderstorms, but their horizontal and vertical dimensions are small by comparison. Thus, the necessary microphysical elements for electrification processes are more highly concentrated, enabling the observed extreme lightning densities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final report

The bulk of the research results supported by this grant had to do with the diurnal cycle of convection and/or convective organization over the Amazon with some analysis also done over the Southern Great Plains, and large-scale drivers of changes in these convective properties like the Amazonian low-level jet. A comprehensive suite of DOE observational and modeling tools was utilized. Overall, the research results collectively emphasize the significance of accurately observing and modeling mesoscale convective systems and the diurnal cycle of convection, particularly in the Amazon, to enhance understanding and forecasting of regional precipitation patterns and climate dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Role of Deep Convection and Large-scale Circulation in Driving Model Spread in Low Cloud Feedback and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

This project aims to advance the understanding of the processes that drive the large uncertainties in climate change projections, use observations to constrain model physics and reduce the inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). There are three major goals: 1) Characterize the representation of the physical pathways that link deep convection, large-scale circulation and low cloud feedback in CMIP6 model simulations and determine the relative contribution of each pathway to the CMIP6 model spread in low cloud feedback and ECS; 2) Use process-oriented diagnostics and multiple observations to evaluate CMIP6 model performance in capturing the observed cloud-circulation relation and deep convection characteristics including convective transition statistics and the bulk properties of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Error decomposition in CMIP6 models will be performed. 3) Conduct E3SM short-range hindcasts following the DOE Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) protocol to pinpoint specific model parameters/processes that are crucial to the representation of deep convection, circulation, clouds and the pathways that connect them. We will modify convective parameters in E3SM and analyze the perturbed physics experiments (PPEs) to isolate model parameters that are critical to the uncertainty of ECS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗